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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Statement 1977/08/09 Item 18viii vi ~nu~n vi~in - - COUNCIL AGENDA STATEMENT Item N°. 18 Far meeting of 8/9/77 ITEM TITLE Resolution 8771 - Adopting CPO revised Series IV Population Forecasts for Chula Vista SUBMITTED BY Director of Planning _ ~/, ITEM EXPLANATION (4/5TH'S VOTE REQUIRED YES NO X ) A. BACKGROUND The population of the San Diego Region is projected to grow at an average of slightly over 40,000 persons per year through 1995. Total population for the region is projected to be 2.4 million in 1995, compared to the current 1.7 million. For the past year all of the cities and the county have been working with CPO on a fore- casting program to assess how local plans will interact to determine the distribution of the projected 2.4 million 1995 population throughout the region. B. FORECASTS FOR CHULA VISTA The following table presents the forecasts for the current city boundaries and the Chula Vista General Plan area. Current City Boundaries 1977 1985 1995 Total Population 78,000 95,500 118,800 Households 27,800 37,000 46,900 General Plan Area 1977 1985 1995 Total Population 101,100 134,600 184,300 Households 36,900 53,900 74,400 (continued on supplemental page) kXN1tS11J Agreement Resolutions Ordinance Plat Notification List Other ENVIRONMENTAL DOCUMENT: Attached Submitted on FINANCIAL IMPACT None STAFF RECOMMENDATION Adopt the attached resolution approving the CPO revised Series IV Population Forecasts for Chula Vista. BOARD/COMMISSION RECOMMENDATION None A P P R O V E D by the COUNCIL ACTION City Council of yliula Vistap California ~,ted ~` /~ ~~ AGENDA ITEM N0. 18 Supplemental page No. 2 C. DISCUSSION 1. What are the forecasts? The population forecasts are a valuable planning tool. They provide the City with an assessment of how the City's General Plan will interact with the plans of other agencies in the region to accommodate future growth. To keep the forecasts in perspective it is important to remember they are demand forecasts. If an agency does not plan or zone to accommodate the forecasted growth it will not occur. Therefore, the forecasted population should be viewed as a number we will not exceed as we plan for Chula Vista. The forecasts will be reviewed every two years and modified to reflect changes in plans and policies of all the local agencies. 2. Purpose of the population forecasts. The goal of the forecasting process is to develop a single set of population figures agreed to by all the governmental agencies in the region. The approved population fore- casts will serve as the basis for decisions on investing public resources in the provision of services and facilities at both the local and regional level. 3. Development of the population forecasts. The Planning Department staff met with CPO staff to prepare the following input to the Urban Development Model based on the City's General Plan. a. Land available for urban development. b. Land available for commercial and industrial development. c. Land constrained from development. d. Residential densities. e. Areas available for redevelopment. Staff reviewed a preliminary set of forecasts and recommended additional changes in the inputs based on the results of the modeling process. 4. Use of the population forecasts. The forecasts provide the City with information to be used as the basis for General Plan evaluation/revision and growth impact/management projects. At the regional level the forecasts will be used initially in the Areawide Water Quality Management Plan (208) to assess the need for wastewater facilities and later for analysis of other public facilities. The forecasts will also be used to evaluate the Regional Air Quality Strategy and as part of a process of coordinating land use and transportation actions to improve air quality. Therefore, CPO will be requesting, between July and October 1977, that each local agency endorse the revised Series IV Population Forecasts. 5. Sweetwater Valley Community Planning Area. The revised population forecasts have raised an issue in the Sweetwater Valley Community Planning Area that is of concern to both the City of Chula Vista and the County. The current population of the Sweetwater Community Planning Area is 16,000 persons. The community plan presented to the Board of Supervisors has a population goal of 20,000 persons. The community plan proposes the additional 4,000 population be accommodated by very low residential development in the Rice Canyon area (one dwelling unit per acre), agricul- tural estates to the east (one dwelling unit per 4 acres) and some development on the remaining undeveloped land in the valley at one and~two dwelling units per acre. The issue arises as the CPO forecasts allocate a population of 52,200 to the community planning area in place of the goal of 20,000. The difference in populations stems from the fact that the CPO forecasts are based on the premise that the Rice Canyon area will eventually be annexed to Chula Vista and the City's plan was used as input to the fore- casting model. The Planning staff worked with CPO in the preparation of the input to the modeling process and, although it was appropriate for the Sweetwater Valley Community Plan to be used for those areas outside of Chula Vista, staff is of the opinion the City's General Plan must be used in the E1 Rancho del Rey area. At such time as Council amends the General Plan in the E1 Rancho del Rey area, staff will forward revised population fi:qures tp CPQ.