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HomeMy WebLinkAboutReso 1978-9436RESOLUTION NO.~ ~ RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIh OF THE CITY OF CHULA VISTA ACCEPTING PROPOSAL OF COPLEY INTER- NATIONAL CORPORATION FOR EVALUATION OF TOURIST INDUSTRY PROMOTION AND VISITOR POTENTIAL, AND APPROPRIATING FUNDS THEREFOR The City Council of the City of Chula Vista does hereby resolve as follows: NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Chula Vista that that certain proposal, submitted by Copley International Corporation for evaluation of tourist industry promotion and visitor potential, as contained in their letter of November 30 , 19~_, a copy of which is attached hereto and by this reference made a part hereof, the same as though fully set forth herein be, and the same is hereby accepted and approved. BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the sum of $4,800 be, and the same is, hereby appropriated from the unappropriated balance of the General Fund to be deposited in Account 632-6320-BG57, from which a total amount of $14,800 is then authorized to be expended for the above purpose. BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the Mayor of the City of Chula Vista be, and he is, hereby authorized and directed to execute same for and on behalf of said City. Presented by ,~ 4 r 4` . ~L- i / \ ~ryf ~~ PatzI G. Desrochers', Community Development Director Councilmen None ADOPTED AT1D APPROVED by the CIT`E' COUTICIL of the CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORPIIA, this 19th day of 11PCPmhar , 197g_, by the following vote, to-wit: APP.'S: Councilmen Gillow, Scott, Eadahl Hyde NAYES: Approved as to form by George D. Lindberg, City Attorney ABSETIT: Councilmen ATTEST City Clerk STATE OF CALIFOP~IVIA) COUidTY OF SAP7 DIEGO) ss, CITY OF CHULA VISTA) City of a full, sane has . ~.., 4 zy ,q J°' t Z i. , , ,~, a' r 't P?ayor of the City of Chula Vista I~ City Chula Vista, California, DO HEREBY CERTIFY that true and correct copy of P.esolution rlo. , not been amended or repealed. DATED City Clerk Clerk of the the above is and that the ,,: ~~~~ SCOPE OF WORK ~> . The overall objective of the proposed study is to define the present visitor industry and to determine what the poten- tial is for the industry over the next three to five years. The study would include the following tasks. TASK I - DETERMINE THE LOCAL ECONOMIC II~ACT OF THE "TYPICAL" VISITOR TO CHULA VISTA A, The terms "visitor," "tourist," and "economic impact would be defined following meetings with community leaders. B. Surveys and other data collection methods would be carried out to estimate the annual volume of visitors to Chula Vista. C. Analysis of the survey data would reveal char- acteristics of the visitors. D. The economic impact of visitors would be deter- mined through analysis of the survey data on amount of spending and type and location of purchases. ' TASK 2 - IDENTIFY OBSTACLES TO AND STIMULI FOR E:{PAi`ISION OF TOURISiI A. An inventory of currently available attractions and accommodations would be carried out. B. Occupancy and usage levels for the accommoda- tions and attractions would be determined. C. Areas for improving or expanding existing facilities or for developing new facilities would be outlined and reviewed. -5- j 9y3 6 ~• TASK 3 - DEVELOP A THREE- TO FIVE-YEAR ASARKETING PLAN FOR IMPROVING LOCAL TOURISM A. Determine what studies or actions could be undertaken to stimulate the local tourist industry. B. Provide cost estimates for implementing the plan or the recommended studies. TASK 4 - EVALUATE AND MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING CONTINUED CITY SUPPORT OF THE CHULA VISTA VISITORS AND CONVENTION BUREAU A. Estimate volume and determine profiles for persons served by the Bureau. B. Evaluate the effectiveness of the Bureau to attract tourists to Chula Vista. The proposed project would be conducted through the use of a number of different research techniques. These would include: ° Observation and Discussion. Existing and potential sites woul e visited; persons in the industry would be contacted to discuss operations and plans. • Executive Interviews. Community leaders would be interviewea to etermine their attitudes on the present industry and their opinions on its poten- tial. • Intercept Surveys. Visitors would be interviewed at various sites throughout the City to determine their characteristics, attitudes, and behavior. ° Household Surveys. Telephone surveys with. citizens woulcTrevea~tudes about tourism and incidence of overnight guests staying in their home. ° Secondarv Data Collection. Attractions and accom- mo ations wou tt e as e to provide statistical information on visitor volume. Such series as Transient Occupancy Tax, revenue by month or quar- ter, campground usage levels, number of visitors to visitor information centers, and other items would be sought and accumulated. -6- ~ \. ( '_ ~ Visitor volume would be measured in terms of ,total visitors; -oral visitor days; and total visitor spending by month, quarter, ;gar, and visitor type. Four visitor types would be studied. ° Hotel/motel guests (including convention dele- gates, excluding commercial travelers) • Visitors staying with friends or relatives '~ ° Non-overnight visitors (including Mexican nationals) ° Campers Each of the visitor types would be studied in sufficient .`:.atail to provide information on their personal characteristics _nd the:Lr visits. These characteristics would include: A. Visitor Characteristics 1. Age, sex, income, and other socioeconomic data 2. Residence (state, three-digit zip code, country, etc.) 3. Reason for visit (vacation, business, personal, etc.) 4. Satisfaction with Chula Vista B. Characteristics of the Visit 1. Mode of travel (air, auto, charter, budget, prepaid package, travel agent, group) 2. Accommodations 3. Length of stay in Chula Vista and total time away from home 4. Side trip versus primary destination $. Previous visits 6. Activities 7. Attractions visited -7- 9 X3,6 ~,- .. , =~ 8. Spending per person, per day, by category 9. Persons in group Once the data were gathered, they would be assembled and totaled. Adjustments would be necessary to weight the visitor types in proportions based on industry statistics. For exam- ple, Transient Occupancy Tax revenue information would yield information on total hotel guests in the City. Total visitor calculations would be made with consideration of this type of constraint. Adjustments would also be necessary to eliminate double counting, a formidable factor since most visitors are counted in more than one statistical series. Finally, adjust- ments would have to be made to compensate for seasonal factors. .The use of a three-month study for year-round activities would make such adjustments necessary. An optional task has been included in the chapter on Time and Cost Considerations, which would deal with this serious limitation. -8- ..~C" '~~ ~ RESEA~CH PROPOSAL FOR EVALUt~TION OF TOURIST INDUSTRY~PROMOTION AND VISITO~ POTENTIAL PHASE II !i Prepared for: Community Development Department City o~ Chula Vista By; Copley International Corporation 7817 Henschel Avenue La Jolla, California 92037 Novemb~~er 30, 1978 I 3~ ,.~- :. ~. ~' TIME AND COS CONSIDERATIONS Cost for the proposedproject would be $14,700. This ost includes all labor, ma~erials, and expenses incurred uring the project. A deta~.led breakdown of costs is pre- ented on the following pag~. The project could be ~ompleted in 12 weeks. If, for xample, a contract covering the proposed work is awarded by anuary 2, 1979, the entire',project could be completed by rch 23, 1979. Delay in award of the contract would result a day-for-day extension ~pf the time required to complete proposed work. This proposal will be, honored until February 2, 1979. hould additional time be rjequired, CIC would consider an tension of this date. Respectfully submitted, proved for Copley Int COPLEY INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION ---~.. Thomas E. Shipman Director, r;arket Research itional Corporation Marian 0. osc er, Vice Press ent to ; Nover~lber 30, 1973 -2.4- y3 6 .....~. ~~! --~--- TABLE qF CONTENTS Page S Y 1 I TRODUCTION . . ' . 2 S OPE OF WORK . '' . 5 W RK PLAN AND METHODS . ', . 9 PABILITY STATEMENT . . ', . 18 T ME AND COST CONSIDERATIONS. 24 0 GANIZATION AI~1~D MANPOWER . !I . _ 29 E COMPANY . ''', . _ 47 ~l3.6 • e • • •~ •i ..~~ . .~,~-~. ~~fl~9 SUMMARY The objective of the propjosed work is to evaluate the tourist industry for thel,City of Chula Vista determine the medium range (3 to 5lyears) potential of this indus- try and evaluate the effectiveness of the City's support of the Chula Vista Visitgrs and Convention Bureau. The work proposed would father information necessary to determine the volume of end characteristics of Chula Vista visitors. The study would estimate '',the volume of hotel/motel visitors, campers, visitors to private households, and day visitors. Data collection would belcarried out through several tech- niques, including: - 30 in-depth community leader interviews - 2,500 to 2,800 f$ce-to-face intercept interviews - 500 telephone interviews with a random sample of Chula ista residents In addition to the conduit and analysis of three surveys, statistical data would b~ collected and a three- to five- year market plan would b~ prepared. The cost for the 12-week', project would be 514,700. -1- ~3b ~'~~ --F--__ INTRCIDUCTION This research proposal,is presented in response to a r quest for proposal dated Qctober 23 ,, 1978, by the City of C ula Vista. The research plan outlined on the following p ges would, if carried out; provide an evaluation of the t urist industry and visitor' potential for the City of Chula V sta. This proposal incorporates parts of a preliminary r search plan to form a comprehensive work schedule with d tailed task-by-task cost estimates. Tourism is San Diego County's third largest industry, f llowing manufacturing and', the Armed Forces. Yet, the i pact of tourism is not spread evenly around the County. C ronado's household population ranks tenth in size out of 1 cities in the County. Im terms of revenue from hotels, h wever, Coronado ranks second behind the City of San Diego. I contrast, Chula Vista is'the second largest city in the C unty, but its hotel/motel revenue ranks fifth among the ties. Of course, some cities are blessed with resources that e unique. Coronado, for example, has the advantage of ocean ontage, a well-known historic landmark, and the charm that lative isolation and prosperity can bring. Chula Vista ds to pale in comparison. Yet, this South Bay city has -2- 3.G so e notable resources. Freeways I-S and I-805, major north- s th arteries, pass through the City along eastern and western b undaries. The City's western boundary is made up of more t an 5.5 miles of relatively undeveloped bay frontage. The m'croclimate of the area tenids to be warmer during the, winter t an other western portions of the County. And, there remains a sizable amount of open sp~.ce suitable for recreational ' v hicle parks, golf courses, or other visitor-oriented faci- 1 ties. At present, perhaps Chula Vista's biggest asset is i s physical location. Situated as it is, halfway between San D ego and Tijuana, Chula Vita is thought to be a convenient b se of operations for tourists. To date, little has begin done to examine Chula Vista's v sitor industry. In fact,'to even refer to it as an industry m y be premature. The principal goals of the proposed research a e as follows A. Identify the Present Size and Nature of Chula Vista's Visitor Industry 1. Prepare a definition of visitors. 2. Profile the 'typical visitor and visitor activities. 3. Determine th'~,e economic impact of visitors to Chula Vista . B. Determine the Potential for Expansion of the Visitor Industry 1, Identify thy' current facilities and their level of utilization. 2. Determine the chief stimuli to expansion and major obstacles to such a course. -3- 9y36 3. Indicate feasible alternatives for improv- ing or increa ing visitor activity. 4. Prepare a play (3 to S year range) for enhancing the local visitor industry. C. .Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Chula Vista Visitors and Convention Bureau 1. Estimate the 'persons served by the Bureau and the profile of those persons. 2. Determine the ability of the Bureau to attract visitors to Chula Vista. Copley International Corporation is pleased to present s Phase II Research Propgsal. Questions regarding technical a pects of this proposal should be directed to Mr. Thomas E. S ipman, Director, Market Research. ~~ith regard to contractual m tters or negotiations, Ms. Marian 0. Doscher, Vice President a d Treasurer, should be contacted. Both of these persons can b reached at Copley International Corporation's La Jolla o~fice by calling 454-0391. -4- y3~ ~....p. ~'~ -+._--- SCOPEI OF WORK The overall objective oaf the proposed study is to define e present visitor industry and to determine what the poten- al is for the industry over the next three to five years. study would include the ',following tasks. K I - DETERMINE THE LOCAI'~ ECONOMIC IMPACT THE "TYPICAL" VISITOR TO'CHULA VISTA A. The terms "visitor," "tourist," and "economic impact" would be ¢iefined following meetings with community le~.ders. B. Surveys and other; data collection methods-would be carried out tol,estimate the annual volume of visitors to Chula'', Vista. C. Analysis of the survey acteristics of the vis: D. The economic impact of mined through analysis amount of spendin',g and purchases. data would reveal char- Ltors . visitors would be deter- of the survey data on type and location of 2 - IDENTIFY OBSTACLES, TO AND LI FOR EXPANSION OF TCIURISM A. An inventory of currently available attractions and accommodations would be carried out. B. Occupancy and usage levels for the accommoda- tions and attractions would be determined. C. Areas for improving or expanding existing facilities or for developing new facilities would be outlined and reviewed. -5- TA~K 3 - DEVELOP A THREE- TO FIVE-YEAR MA ETING PLAN FOR IMPROVING LOCAL TOURISM A. Determine what studies or actions could be undertaken to stimulate the local tourist industry. ,I B. Provide cost estimates for implementing the plan or the recommended studies. TA K 4 - EVALUATE AND MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING CONTINUED CI Y SUPPORT OF THE CHULA VIISTA VISITORS AND CONVENTION BUREAU A. Estimate volume an'~,d determine profiles for persons served by ',the Bureau. I I B. Evaluate the effectiveness of the Bureau to attract tourists t'o Chula Vista. The proposed project would be conducted through the use 0~1 a number of different research techniques. These would i elude: • Observation and Discussion. Existing and potential sites wou e visi~e persons in the industry would be contacted ~o discuss operations and plans. • Executive Interview. Community leaders would be interviewe to ete~r!mine their attitudes on the present ,industry and their opinions on its poten- tial . • Intercept Surveys. Visitors would be interviewed at various sites throughout the City to determine their characteristics, attitudes, and behavior. • Household Surveys. Telephone surveys with. citizens wou revea attitudes about tourism and incidence of overnight guests'staying in their home. • Secondar Data Collection. Attractions and accom- mo ations wou e 'ias e to provide statistical information on visi'ttor volume. Such series as Transient Occupancy' Tax, revenue by month or quar- ter, campground usage levels, number of visitors to visitor information centers, and other items would be sought and accumulated. -6- ~ ).6 Visitor volume would be measured in terms of total visitors; tal visitor days; and total visitor spending by month, quarter, ar, and visitor type. Four visitor types would be studied. • HotelJmotel guests including convention dele- gates, excluding commercial travelers) • Visitors staying with friends or relatives • Non-overnight visitG~rs (including Mexican nationals) • Campers Each of the visitor types would be studied in sufficient tail to provide informatibn on their personal characteristics i d their visits. These chjaracteristics would include: A. Visitor Characterllistics 1. Age, sex, income, and other socioeconomic data 2. Residence (s~,tate, three-digit zip code, country , etc! . ) 3. Reason for isit (vacation, business, personal, e~c.) 4. Satisfaction with Chula Vista B. Characteristics ~f the Visit 1. Mode of travel (air, auto, charter, budget, prepaid package, travel agent, group) 2. Accommodations 3. Length of shay in Chula time away from home 4. Side trip versus primar} 5. Previous visits 6. Activities 7. Attractions visited Vista and total destination -7- 8. Spending per person, per day, by category 9. Persons in grq~up Once the data were gathered, they would be assembled and to aled. Adjustments would ~e necessary to weight the visitor ty es in proportions based o~ industry statistics. For exam- pl Transient Occupancy Taxl!,revenue information would yield i formation on total hotel guests in the City. Total visitor c lculations would be made with consideration of this type of c strains. Adjustments woujld also be necessary to eliminate d uble counting, a formidablje factor since most visitors are cdunted in more than one statistical series. Finally, adjust- is would have to be made~lto compensate for seasonal factors. e use of a three-month st~.dy for year-round activities would m ke such adjustments necessary. An optional task has been i eluded in the chapter on ~'ime and Cost Considerations, which w uld deal with this seriou~ limitation. II'~ -8- y3~ ~i~~~ __~___ WORK PLANT AND METHODS Each of the four tasks ''outlined in the Scope of Work uld require several different research techniques. Thus, rk would be carried out orb all tasks simultaneously. Each the methods to be utilized is described in this section. 0 SERVATION AND DISCUSSION ' The Project Director would meet with City staff members, idustry leaders, and otherll',interested parties to obtain iformation. An effort wou~Ld be made to reach a consensus i the definition of a visitor. Does this include Mexican 3tionals shopping at Chula'',Vista Shopping Center? Does it Zclude persons who stop at',a visitor information center? efore the economic impact Hof a visitor can be measured, it ould be necessary to reachi an understanding on the terms used. Visits would be made ~o visitor activity sites and accom- odations where appropriate personnel would be interviewed .bout visitor activities, the potential for expansion, and restraints on expansion. I, XECUTI ~'E INTERVIEWS An experienced executive interviewer would be used to >ather information on the climate for expansion of the visitor -9- U,3 b ind stry. This person would make appointments with and inter- vie a sample of 30 community leaders. The respondents would be yawn from political, business, and social service organi- zat ons within the City of Chula Vista. The purpose of this survey would be to determine support for various tourist industry growth scenarios, goals for the Cit and perceived assets and liabilities of the City. STUDIES A CIC staff of interviewiers would be assigned to various locations within the City of Chula Vista. They would contact interview non-residents of the City. In screening out reslidents, they would keep records on how many were screened ou in order to establish incidence of non-resident usage of fa ilities. The information on incidence would be needed to ca7~culate visitor volume. Using a structured questionnaire, the interviewers would obtain information such as the following: • Number of persons in ,group • Length of stay in Chula Vista • Type of accommodations • Point of origin • Amount of money spent in Chula Vista • Purpose of visit • Frequency of visit • Activities while in Chula Vista . T.he City would be able to review the questionnaire and ap~rove it for field use. CIC estimates a questionnaire nistration time of no longer than five minutes would be molt efficient. The approved questionnaire would be translated -10- Y36 i to Spanish, and interviewers assigned to the project would b bilingual (English-Spanish). Interview sites would include: ° Boat launching areas • Motel coffee shop areas • Visitor information centers • Chula Vista Shopping Center • Recreational vehicle parks ° Other selected points Interviewing would be conducted on weekdays and weekends. I Bally, this field work should be conducted throughout the y ar to compensate for seasonal differences. Because of the s ope of the project, however, the surveys would be spread over a least four weeks. At least 400 interviewer hours would be committed to the i tercept survey. With an estimated completion rate of seven p r hour, it is likely that 2,800 interviews could be completed. 0 course, the rate of completion would depend on the volume of urists in the area, so the actual number of interviews with urists could be somewhat less than 2,800. USEHOLD SURVEY Chula Vista citizens effect the tourist industry in sev- ral ways. They, as well as tourists, use facilities; they ote on, or otherwise influence the outcome of developers' laps; and they provide overnight accommodations to non-resident riends or relatives. For these reasons, a household survey s being proposed. The purpose of this survey would be to etermine citizen usage of facilities, such as boat launch -11- ~y 3 ~ ra ps, parks, visitor infoz-mation centers, and acco~nodations. An they function of the household survey would be to determine at itudes on tourism and the benefits and inconveniences that ac ompany tourism. Finally, through this survey, the incidence of overnight visitors to private households would be determined. 's last piece of information would permit calculation of the v lume of visitors to private homes -- a major component of t tal visitors. A random sample of SOO telephone households would be uti- 1'zed. This sample would be of sufficient size to permit p ojections of the incidence of overnight home visitors with r asonable accuracy. Up to three callback attempts would be r quired in an effort to obtain a completed interview. With t is requirement, it is expected that interviews would be com- p eted with about 75 percent of the original numbers. Numbers f r which there was no answer after four call attempts (original a d three callbacks) would not be replaced. Thus, it is antici- p ted that more than 660 numbers would be included in the o igiral sample. As with the Intercept Survey, the questionnaire would be d afted, turned over to the City for approval, pretested, and, en ready, a Spanish language version would be prepared. All t lephone interviewing would be conducted from CIC's telephone acility. Standard interviewer and quality control checks ould be carried out on the completed questionnaires. -12- ~3~ CTION OF SECONDARY DATA Throughout the course of the study, secondary data would b sought and collected. The specific data needed would i clude: • Transient Occupancy Tax by quarter, 1970-1978 • Visitor traffic at selected po'i.nts • Advertising expenditures on promotion of Chula Vista in other markets • Point of origin for a sample of motel guests and campground user In addition to this, other information would be sought. e purpose of collecting such data would be to relate visitor c aracteristics with volume indicators. In addition, this i formation would be evaluated to determine its usefulness in p edicting or explaining visitor volume. If, for example, usage o visitor information centers and hotel/motel revenue were fund to have a strong positive correlation, this could aid in t acking the results of advertising expenditures. PLAN Work on the four principal research tasks would be carried t simultaneously. This would be necessary because of the ort time span of the proposed project and because the proposed search methods would yield information required for more than e task. The following paragraphs present the task-by-task rk plan. -13- u36 Ta k 1 - Determine the Local Economic Impact of the "T pical" Visitor to Chula Vista In meetings with City staff members and industry leaders, th definition of "visitors".would be established. This would be a fundamental task. The range of characteristics of persons to be included in the visitor definition would strongly influence th amount of the impact estimate. Once the definition of visitor was approved, the intercept an household surveys would begin. The first step would be the pr paration of sample plans. The citizen survey would utilize a andom sample of 667 telephone households. Within each house- . ho d, only senior adults (male or female) would be eligible sam- ply members. Ci The sample plan for the intercept surveys would indicate times and sites where these face-to-face interviews were toltake place. As noted previously, the sites would be visitor activity areas throughout Chula Vista. Following development of the sample plans, the question- es would be designed and pretested. At the end of the Ling phase, the questionnaires would be submitted to the for review and approval. Once approval was received, the stionnaires would be translated into Spanish, and the surveys d begin. As noted earlier, the two surveys would be multi-purpose. parts of the questionnaires appropriate for Task 1 would :lude . -14- y 3~ • Characteristics of visitor groups • Activities and accommodations in Chula Vista • Spending in Chula Vista • Incidence of visitors staying in private homes • Resident use of visitor facilities The completed questionnaires would be reviewed, edited, ded, and keypunched. The resulting data base would be alyzed and estimates made of visitor volume and impact. onomic impact would be stated in terms of visitor spending ly. The. calculation of multipliers for tracing the tourist llar through the local economy would be beyond the scope of is analysis. T sk 2 - Identify Obstances to and S imuli for Ex ansion of Tourism A key segment of this task would be a survey of 30 commu- n ty leaders. The individuals to be interviewed would represent p litical, social, and commercial aspects of the City. An e perienced executive interviewer would hold in-depth discussions w'th the selected persons to obtain their perceptions on Chula V'sta's potential for tourism. The discussion guide far these interviews would focus on b th the present level of taurism and on the probable changes level or direction of the visitor industry. Information llected from the community leaders would be compared and con- asted with the opinions and expectations of Chula Vista tizens. Coupled with the survey results would be an inventory of esent attractions, activities, and accommodations. The pur- se of this work would be to determine present usage levels -15- ~3b fob expansion. Ta k 3 - Develop a Three- to Five-Year Marketing P1 n for Im rovin Local Tourism Beginning with an understanding of the present level and sc pe of Chula Vista's tourist industry and the direction the in ustry is expected to take, a marketing plan would be pre- pa ed. Information from Tasks 1 and 2 would provide input for t plan's foundation, i.e., goals and present conditions within industry. Given the basics, a set of marketing objectives ild be prepared. These objectives would provide targets for cecting and guiding a marketing strategy. The objectives ild be measurable, realistic, and specific. The following e examples of possible objectives: • Increase hotel/motel occupancy levels by x percent. • Increase average length of stay by x nights. a • Increase visitor awareness of activities in the Chula Vista area. Once the objectives were set, a list of strategies would prepared. The strategies would present a course of action a plan for accomplishing the action. Included in the plan .ld be a method for monitdring the results. The costs for s aspect of the plan would be estimated. The development this plan would be dependent on the information gathered ing Tasks 1 and 2. -16- Qy3 b Task 4 - Evaluate and Make Recommendations Regarding Continued City Support of the Chula Vista Visitors and Convention Bureau During the Intercept Survey, visitors would be asked about their awareness and use of Visitor and Convention Bureau facili- ties. A separate profile would be prepared on Bureau users. Thus, the analysis would focus on the volume of visitors served by the Bureau and on the characteristics of these visitors. Programs administered by the Bureau would be reviewed. Of course, this task would be dependent on the Bureau's cooper- ation. Of particular interest would be the Bureau's advertising and promotion programs. The scope of the programs would be reviewed in relation to their objectives. The amount spent on advertising, the focus of the ads, the markets in which the ads appeared, and the media used would all be studied. REPORT PREPARATION At the conclusion of the four tasks just described, a comprehensive report would be prepared. This report would cover all aspects of the project, including a complete descrip- tion of the methodology, conclusions, and recommendations. The report would include a medium range plan of studies and actions that could be undertaken to increase the impact of visitors. The report would be submitted in draft form for review by the City. Following the review, a final report would be pre- pared and presented. -17- yy~6 ~....®~ ~_ CAPABILITY STATEMENT Copley International Corporation has conducted numerous ejects dealing with consumer leisure time and recreational a tivities. CIC's work in this field includes survey research a d economic. analysis. Survey research projects have been ected toward assessing consumer characteristics, habits, attitudes to highlight m~.rketing problems and opportunities. E onomic analyses have been carried out to determine feasibility o proposed business ventures, or have involved projections of c rrent and future activities in support of planning decisions b client organizations. The following summaries indicate pro- j cts accomplished by CIC in this area. A list of references f llows these project summaries. SITOR AND TOURIST RELATED RESEARCH PROJECTS anside Tourism Analysis A review of the present. size of the tourist industry in eanside was prepared as one segment of a fiscal impact study ducted for the City. The visitor portion included estimates o~ visitors, visitor days, and spending within Oceanside. S~n Diego Convention and Visitors Bureau i Since 1969, CIC has conducted a number of studies on var- segments of San Diego's visitor industry. At present, -18- Q ~,6 CSC is under contract to the San Diego Convention and Visitors eau for a year-long study of visitors. The objective of s project is to profile the characteristics of visitors to S~n Diego County and to determine the volume of visitors who c{~me to San Diego each quarter. Among the other studies which CIC carried out for the au are the following: Analysis of Hotel Guests. A series of surveys was car- reed out to determine the characteristics of guests staying first-class hotels. Guests in Small Hotels and Motels. Managers of small tels were interviewed in an effort to determine character- i~tics of their guests (persons in party, origin, etc.). P Guests Staying in Private Households. A series of tele- surveys was conducted to determine the volume of the sitor to friends and relatives" segment of San Diego's sitor industry. Impact of One-Day Visitors and' Campers. Using statistics ated by the industry, estimates of the total volume and pact of one-day (non-overnight) visitors and campers were epared. The estimates included the impact of shoppers from ja California. Impact of Advertising in Los Angeles. Using a before- ter telephone survey, the recognition of a Bureau advertising ssage was measured. Incidence of visiting San Diego and aracteristics of visitors from Los Angeles were obtained. -19- gy3-b Reasons for Moving to San Diego. Two surveys were con- .cted (1972 and 1978) to determine why people move to San ego. Particular attention was focused on the impact of the sitor industry on inmigration. Resident Opinion on Tourism. A survey was conducted to termine the opinions of San Diego rgsidents on tourism and Diego tourists. The objective of the survey was to find t if tourists affected the residents' quality of life. Survey of Travel Writers. A mail and telephone survey w~s carried out to assess the quality of the Bureau`s travel iter promotion and assistance program. Estimates of the v~.lue of the travel, writers` promotion were also calculated. Survey of Travel Agents. A series of focused interviews conducted with travel agency managers and travel agents to determine the most efficient method of destination promotion. Analysis of Visitor Statistical Series. As a first step t~ward preparing a visitor volume estimation model, a number o~ local industry statistical series was evaluated. This s~udy indicated which series would provide accurate, relevant is of visitors. Visitor Activity Model. A computer model with 42 vari- ales was prepared. The purpose of the model was to generate sitor volume data using secondary data as a base. Study of Tourist Business in San Diego. This study lyzed not only the characteristics, habits, and attitudes tourists in San Diego, but also their expenditure and tivity patterns. The project also attempted to review -20- 9u 3 ~ occupancy data for San Diego hotels and to produce a new index tc~ indicate the hotels' percent of economic potential. Winter Travel Surveys. Surveys were conducted in five nter travel markets: Minneapolis, Denver, Vancouver, Chicago, San Francisco. The objectives were to determine the inci- e of off-season .travel, the characteristics of winter avelers, and the image of San Diego as an off-season vacation destination. RECREATION/LEISURE RELATED RESEARCH PROJECTS M ssion Bay A uatic Park Economic analyses were carried out regarding alternate d velopment criteria for Mission Bay. This study projected f ture park usage and specific activity participation, the e timated cost to the City of San Diego, and revenues to the ssees and, ultimately, to the City. ports Arena Analysis Projections to the end of the century were developed for ckey, basketball, and miscellaneous events to be held in a icipal sports arena. Included in the projection were king, concessions, and attendance revenue. alifornia Coastal Zone Stud This study was concerned with the impact of the growing to population on the coastal zone. Particular attention s focused on the heavy demands to be placed on coastal creational facilities. -21- ~{y~b ~tential for Ocean-Related Activities CIC was the prime contractor for a federally financed y of the future demands for ocean-related recreational tivities. reakeven Analysis CIC conducted a study of the economic consequences of ving an aerospace exhibit to a new location and of charg- g visitors an admission fee. In addition, a survey was de to determine the motivation of persons attending the hibit in its present location. otential Uses for Stadium CIC provided an analysis to determine potential, addi- oval revenue-producing activities for two municipally erated stadiums. Existing use policy, as well as current tal rates, were reviewed, and future potential uses for stadiums were ranked. to Collection CIC designed the questionnaires and sampling plan for the thur D. Little, Inc., study of tourism's impact on the City San Diego. Interviewing, coding, and keypunching were so conducted by CIC. :otel Feasibility S As part of an industrial/commercial park development plan, IC determined the feasibility of construction of a motel. -22- 9y3b is included projections of expected occupancy based on rent rates in the area. References for some of the more recently completed projects iclude: Ms. Lauren Schlau, Research Projects Manager San Diego Convention and Visitors Bureau 1200 Third Avenue, Suite 824 San Diego, California 92101 Telephone: 714/232-3101 Previous contract representatives at the Bureau are: Mrs. Dorothy Migdal 714/232-0124 Mr. Jerry Baker 714/235-6361 Mr. Michael Blessing .Associate Planner City of Oceanside 321 North Nevada Oceanside, California 92054 Telephone: 714/433-9000 Mr. William McFarland Department of General Services City of San Diego San Diego, California 92101 Telephone: 714/236-5515 -23- ~~~~ ~~ Q .~_ TIME AND COST CONSIDERATIONS Cost for the proposed project would be $14,700. This c st includes all labor, materials, and expenses incurred d ring the project. A detailed breakdown of costs is pre- s~nted on the following page. The project could be completed in 12 weeks. If, for le, a contract covering the proposed work is awarded by . J~.nuary 2, 1979, the entire project could be completed by ch 23, 1979. Delay in award of the contract would result a day-for-day extension of the time required to complete proposed work. This proposal will be honored until February 2, 1979. d additional time be required, CIC would consider an Ktension of this date. Respectfully submitted, COPLEY INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION ~ ~.~~. Thomas E. Shipman Director, Market Research oved for Copley International Corporation Marian 0. Dosc er, Vice Presi ent ate: November 30, 1978 -24- ~y 3b ~O O O N ~ O ~O O O O N O N O N ~ M O ~ ~ N N S ~ ~, ~; M .~ .~ v u ~ v ~ ~ v v v w w ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O cd ~ ~O O r~ r~ .--~ ~ i.+ N .-~ ~ ~ •-1 O +-~ .~ O O v1 .~ O O O O v ~ ~ c ir c ir tir r/r V} v> tn~ O CA oV N~ ~°J U~ C°J NJ aV O J-~ (!J ~ •3c cd v N td •n (Jj y,~ .. U i~ O ~ .. to v U1 H rl 3 ~ tq -I H •r •-i H rl e~ O P4 D c~ ~ a4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N H N~ N~ ~ ~ ~ fn ~ ~ ~ U ~ r-I W N ~ G ~ .0 U 0 U U •~ v O U ~ v N W N 3.1 A ~ H ~ H ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N I I t 1 +~ ~ ~ O .~ U U O U ~ ~ r -I cU cn ~.. y to r -I r -1 «i to r -I «1 w •r-I r--I N O U •ri 3-1 •ri •r1 r-i N }-~ r~ r-1 N ~ ° ~ o a o ~ ~ h ~ ° ~ ~ oF i a c i. o o v oF ~+ H ~ O +~ cC +~ .u o .u v ° ~ A~ ~a ~ ~ da m H~ wa o dH ~a o m ~ o TEJZ3 T~ ~ M M ~-+ M I ~ M M U o 0 . -~ ~~ ° s~ar~ain a~u 0 0 ~n I o ~n o ~ ~ +-~ PTa 3 ~ M '~ °° `° `^ ~~ S~lIE~S SS~1 M M .-I N ~ I O O O cd LIJ3Ea ag ~ ~. 3a~E Ej~j ~, N N N M I MOO N ~t•~oM P az3 '~' ° ~ ~ ~o~Ja zQ M M M M M I o ~~ O a•+ 0 ~Ja C zd -~ N i . a U cd 'r'1 ~ ~ ~ O sa ~, ao v, a o 0 G ~ a .° .~ , 4 0 ~ ' o ~ x -a •~ b ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ v ~ '-I 'v, cd v W N i-+ m U ~ ~ 0 ~' A U J -~ ~ r -I ~ c d ~, ~, U v v o v v ~ a >•+ ~ v >~+ v ~ +~ N~ D cd v v b A O •n w ~ ~ ro N A H P~ A W a >'+ t C v o va ~ a ~ ~ ,-., a a u c d c d v ro c d ~ ,~ +-~ .u ~ u v ~ 14~ L -2s- H W O W a A W x U -26- t~ .~ ~ ~ 1-- b •r-i ~ U 1-1 1.~ O •,~ ~- .~ b ~ N ~ ~ 1-1 N ~ ~ O N a s~ a~ a x +~ ~ ~ cd O ~ a •a a, w x ~ ~ w ~ ~ ~ s.~ •a A W y ~b ION FOR A TWELVE-MONTH SURVEY As has been noted in other sections of this proposal, ~rmation about its own visitors. Monthly reports would indicate such visitor characteristics CI~ is currently under contract to the San Diego Convention an visitors Bureau for a monthly survey of visitors. The ob ective of this study is to identify the characteristics of~visitors to the County and to estimate their volume through- ou~ the year. During the course of this project, CIC will conduct in ercept interviews each month with approximately 500 visi- to s. As an optional task, CIC could station interviewers at selected locations in Chula Vista. The resulting data ld provide a useful addition to the San Diego Convention an Visitors Bureau's data base. In addition, a special monthly to ulation would provide the City of Chula Vista with needed as 1. Size of party 2. Length of stay in Chula Vista 3. Activities, accommodations, and attractions visited 4. Area of residence 5. Amount spent on food, shopping, lodging, etc. 6. Age, sex, and incame of visitor households 7. Mode of transportation The cost for this monthly data collection and reporting to sk would be $1,800 for 12 months. This cost would include -27- 3~ 24 ays of interviewing, data reduction and computer proces- sin and a summary report each month. The importance of this option rests on the recognition tha the mix of visitors changes throughout the year. The pro osed study is based on a data collection period of four to ix weeks during the low point in San Diego County's visi- to industry cycle. A monthly update of the data would offset weakness. -28- 3b ~.~ ~~ ~- ORGANIZATION AND MANPOWER This section presents the proposed research team selected b~ CIC especially for this research project effort. A brief scription of the special qualifications for principal staff bers, in light of the survey requirements, is given. The p~oject organizational chart represents CIC's survey design team. Brief resumes of team members are included. Also _ p~ovided is a summary of CIC's facilities and in-house capa- b~lities, including the project management control system. CT DIRECTOR Thomas E. Shipman, M.S. Director, Market Research Mr. Shipman is responsible for CIC's in-house survey oup and directs a large proportion of the survey research tivities of Copley International Corporation. He has more eight years of experience in this field and has supervised -off conducted surveys utilizing all types of administration techniques. These include over 25,000 face-to-face interviews, 11 over 150,000 telephone interviews, 10,000 mail interviews, numerous focused interview panel discussions. Mr. Shipman is skilled at questionnaire design and includes in this activity consideration of the necessary data ling of completed responses. This attention to overall -29- y3~6 planning greatly increases the cost effectiveness of th proposed research. He would be responsible for overall di ection of all phases of the project. In addition to the recreation/leisure research projects ci~ed in the Capability Statement, Mr. Shipman recently di~ected the successful completion of,a social needs assess- t for the City of San Diego. He is currently directing a ci y services evaluation for the City of Long Beach. He has al o directed a major nationwide survey effort for HUD. This y dealt with a study of urban-rural mortgage availability di ferentials. In addition, he served as the project director of two recently completed survey studies for the California D artment of Water Resources and the National Marine Fisheries S vice, Southeast Regional Office in Miami, Florida. IEF STATISTICAL ANALYST Gordon H. Kubota, Ph.D. Group Director, Economics and Econometrics Presently, Dr. Kubota is serving as the technical director o~ the project for HUD involving the evaluation of a nationwide s udy of urban-rural mortgage credit differentials. This study i based on an extensive survey of households and selected f nancial institutions. Dr. Kubota is also serving as the oject director of a study for the Department of Labor which sesses the labor force participation and discrimination of in non-traditional occupations based on survey data. nth studies are scheduled for completion by year-end 1978. -30- y 3~ As the projects listed in his resume indicate, Dr. Kubota acquired a working knowledge of survey design, techniques, analysis. This working knowledge has been the result of ctical research applications and college teaching experience. example, he has taught courses in applied statistics, hematical statistics, applied methods in empirical research, research methods, and econometrics at Santa Clara University; lifornia State University, Los Angeles; and United States ternational University. F1lELD SUPERVISION M. Kathleen Kemp Field Research Supervisor Ms. Kemp has been a permanent member of CIC's field survey staff for three years. During that time, Ms. Kemp has super- sed many surveys involving either face-to-face or telephone terviews. As on previous projects, Ms. Kemp would be in charge of interviewer hiring, training, day-to-day allocation o~ work, and supervision of the interviewing staff. REDUCTION AND QUALITY CONTROL Terry F. Koch Data Preparation Supervisor The task of quality control and data reduction would be accomplished under the direction of Ms. Koch. Ms. Koch has en a permanent member of CIC's staff for three years. ing that time, Ms. Koch has exercised day-to-day control -31- y3 ~6 data preparation and survey processing for many projects. of her recent work has been concentrated on long-term data collection projects being conducted in San Diego County. PRACTICES CIC has, at present, a large number of experienced inter- vi ers. In spite of this, it is anticipated that additional fi ld work personnel would be used to conduct some of the pr posed interviews. CIC offers employment to all persons on the basis of qualifications and competency without discrimi- ' na ion because of race, religion, color, age, sex, or origin. It is the policy of CIC to list all employment openings with th Employment Development Department in an effort to attract ~qu lified minority applicants... CT ORGANIZATION Copley International Corporation is capable of completing al~ phases of survey research.. Survey research tasks. are rally divided into those related to the design of the ey, the actual administration of the questionnaire, and analysis of the survey findings. The staff members whose names are listed under Field Supervision, Data Reduction, and Statistical Analysis are individuals who could direct that activity. One of these in ividuals would be assigned overall responsibility for each ar a, while the others named would assist in accomplishing the k. -32- y3~ Brief resumes of the CIC staff members who would be ava'lable for assignment are presented following the project or nization chart. These resumes are arranged in alphabetical or er for easy reference. Following the resumes is a discus- si n of the physical features and management controls which CI would utilize in completing survey, research during this re earch effort. -33- tN3~ ~A .,~ ~~ ~,a r-+ ~ ~ cd - U ~ cd 'Ci ~~b o a~ r-+ .n 3 N ~ U j~l., rl •~ ~ ~-- cd ~nxa .r., .,, ~ cd o a4 ~b ~~ o' ~ o r ~ a o ~ •~+ ~ r+ ~ a w v ~ u •~ •~+ x ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ •~ qa i a~ v H A aU W ~~ ~ ~~~ u ~ .u a~c~ bcv~ •n~ rlx U O O d1 ~ '~ aE --+ c~~z b a~ ~ a~ ~ cd U ~ ~~•.~ ~ cd v ,.x o~o~s •~ ~xa ~~ U to ~~wa b a, ~, ~,,~ x~ ~.~ •.-~ ~ ~, cd ,-+ a .a 1.~ cd H Rf RS ~ N A d •~+ .~ W -34- w3 6 ~~ ~_ QUALIFICATIONS OF PROFESSIONAL STAFF -35- ~3 ~°""~' THOMAS E . SHIPMAN ~! ~ ' Project Director ~...~. Selected Experience Assi taut Professor, Department of Marketing, San Diego State University Mark t Analyst, Commercial Forecasting, Pacific Telephone Admi istrative Analyst, Purchasing Department, City of San Diego T i al Project Accomplishments Cond cted a market feasibility study of a 66-acre industrial park and set up a marketing program to implement recommendations (non-profit agency) Supe wised an image study for a public utility (research organization) Set p a continuing consumer research panel for analyzing new products and shopping patterns Cond cted a series of video taped small group interviews with inmates of several Marine Corps and Naval Correctional Facilities (federal government) Desi ned and supervised several large surveys aimed at measuring media habits, attitudes and opinions of various newspapers and shopping behavior of household units (research organization) Det fined the discriminatory power of several family life cycle scales in relation to other socioeconomic measures (state government) Sup wised two continuing studies of consumer behavior involving 3,800 respondents per year (research organizatian) Dev loped a method predicting commercial telephone density (communications firm) Con ucted departmental image study for a centralized municipal purchasing department (local government) Dev loped a method of evaluating vendor performance for use as a parameter in competitive bidding (research organization) Pre ared forecasts of taxable retail sales for selected counties in Illinois (research organization) tion , B.S~, marketing, San Diego State University M.S , marketing, San Diego State University Professional Memberships can Marketing Association Publlications Nor Sp rn Illinois Quarterly Review of Business and Economic Conditions (selected quarters) field Illinois Quarterly Review of Business and Economic Conditions (selected quarters) ~3 ~ ~.~. ~~ Selec ence CLIFFORD J. BROWN Survey Assistant Field supervisor; Interviewers Copley International Corporation Coder, Copley International Corporation cal Proiect Accomplishments Direct d long-term store audit to evaluate market share and revenue of Com- m rcial suntan product (private corporation) Superv sed interviewing, validated completed questionnaires for a comprehen- s ve nationwide study of home mortgage lending (federal agency) Conduc ed briefings, supervised interviewing, edited questionnaires for a 5 500 sample size telephone study to evaluate water saving devices ( tate government) Conduc ed interviews for newspaper opinion polls, readership studies (private f rm) Partic pated in interviewing and analysis of ongoing shopping habit survey in S n Diego, California and Springfield, Illinois (private firm) Conduc ed in-depth personal interviews for a study to determine social needs i San Diego (local government) Coded omplex questionnaires to meet requirements of various clients Educat B.S., minor, sociology, San Diego State University ~3 ~ ~~~ ~~ erience LAWRENCE A. CRANE Research Analyst Fort nProgrammer-Computer Operator, San Diego State University Rehabilita- tion Department Elec ronic Calibration Technician, U.S. Navy T i al Pro'ect Accom lishments Wrot program for estimation of newspaper reach and frequency statistics (research organization) Set p programs for filtering valid and dependent responses for shopping behavior study (research organization) Coor inated data collection and retrieval for continuing study of consumer behavior (research organization) Prep red market share calculations for major San Diego retail stores (research organizations) Prep red data extraction program for selected economic base studies (research organizations) Prep red environmental simulation models (educational institution) Perf rmed data analysis format for study of a nationwide newspaper supplement (research organization) Educ~.tion B.S., biology, San Diego State Unive~'sity 3~ ~.. ~- ~, ~~ Selected Experience CARYL S. FOSTER Economic and Marketing Analyst Market ng and Financial Consultant, Secretaries of Dallas Econom c Analyst, East Palo Alto City Council Admini trative Assistant, Right to Read Program Summer Intern, Congressman Lionel Van Deerlin ical Proiect Accomvlishments Perf ors i~ a Select e. Develo Partic 4' Identi (~ Determ 0 Examin 0 Prepar ( Estima 1 Conduc C Prepar b Analyz t Educat B.A., ed market and economic analysis for proposed regional shopping center, eluding identification of primary market area and potential demand, well as demographic analysis (developer) d random sample for completing non-respondent callbacks for health fects survey (Federal agency) ed a marketing strategy and promotional mix (employment agency) pated in editing, coding and remote terminal computer input of estionnaires for health effects survey (Federal agency) ied alternative land uses for industrial-commercial development ocal government) ned financial feasibility of establishing an agricultural greenhouse eration on a parcel of land in Carlsbad, California (developer) d demographic/employment characteristics and retail purchasing patterns households in a city in Southern California (local government) d revenue and cost forecasts for proposed large agricultural development rivate client) ed potential rental income to local government from an agricultural asehold (private client) ed a comparative analysis on historical salary structures of San Diego unty classified and non-classif ied employees (employee association) d various articles on current economic conditions for local economic lletin d the economic and financial feasib ility of establishing a commercial .sting laboratory in the San Diego Region (private client) nomics, Stanford University X13 6 ®~ ~~ Selec erience M. KATHLEEN KEr1P Field Supervisor Field upervisor, Copley International Corporation Instru tor, Community Health Problems and Related Agencies, Ohio State U iversity Typica Project Accomplishments Conduc ed interviews as part of a study to determine the prevalence of lung d sease among persons 18 to 26 years of age (health organization) Prepar d survey materials for use in chronic respiratory disease study ( ederal agency) Analyz d data obtained from a continuing survey of shopping habits in San D ego County (private) Prepar d dietary plan for persons on an alcholic rehabilitation program ( olunteer health organization) Summar zed questionnaire data from public awareness survey (March of Dimes) Analyz d readership survey data (newspaper) Superv sed and instructed interviewers for telephone interviewing Edited ~:oded, and entered questionnaire data into DECsystem-10 computer Set up programs for quality assurance of questionnaire for computer intake Superv sed and instructed interviewers involved in editing and coding ques- t onnaires for entrance into compunter through remote terminal Superv sed nationwide telephone interviewing from a central telephone facility; e ited completed questionnaires fpr accuracy (federal agency) Prepar d a data base for a federal home mortgage study involving extensive t avel to selected U.S. cities (federal agency) Develo ed questionnaire for field; analyzed shopping habits of residents in S ringfield, Illinois (private) Develo ed questionnaire; supervised nearly 6,000 interviews for a pilot program u dertaken by California Educatiion B.S., ical education; minor, health education, Ohio University 36 ~~ ~~ Selectled Experience TERRY FAYE KOCH Data Preparation Supervisor Codin~ Supervisor, Copley International Corporation Inter fewer, Copley International Corporation Proiect Accomplishments Supe ised field work, conducted briefings and instructed interviews for a untan product audit (private firm) Supe ised coding of complex questionnaire designs for data entry Edite interviewers' work for completeness and accuracy Valid ted questionnaires by re-calling respondents to insure that data is cceptable Built project codes; prepared coding sheets and other survey materials Prepa ed valid response computer program which monitors value ranges of data nput during keypunching Super ised keypunching of data; keypunched Prepa ed tables and charts for various projects and clients' needs Analy ed data for Continuing Analysis of Shopping Habits in San Diego Educatkion B.A., fine arts; minor sociology, San Diego State University Q~3 b ~..~..~. '~ [~ ~ GORDON H. KUBOTA, Ph.D. ~,~~ Group Director, Economics and Statistics Selec ed E erience Assis ant Professor of Economics and Statistics, United States International niversity Resea ch Associate, California State foundation, Los Angeles Assis ant Professor of Economics, University of Santa Clara Lectu er in Economics, University of California, Riverside ic~l Project Accomplishments Direc ed the statistical and biometric analysis of pulmonary function and question- aire data on various population segments which are susceptible to high levels f pollution (federal agency) Devel ped the statistical protocol and directed the analysis of pulmonary function nd questionnaire data for a study of chronic respiratory disease and lower expiratory disease (federal agency) Serve as technical director of a theoretical and empirical inquiry into urban- ural mortgage credit availability (federal agency) Devel ped a multivariate, multiequation model for assessing major regional agricul- ural products (private engineering firm) Serve as a research associate in a national assessment of the role of technological hange in research development (federal agency) Devel ped a multivariate, multiequation methodology for predicting future allied ealth manpower requirements (state educational system) Empir'cally assessed the role of technological change in health care production non-profit institution) Assis ed in the specification and estimation~'of an econometric model to describe the rket for registered nurses (non-profit institution) Aided in the formulation of a labor strategy for nurses (nursing organization) Assis ed in developing statistical analysis for the marketability of anew product food company) Super ised the development and specification of an econometric/linear programming ssessment of petroleum dependency (non-profit institution) Educa ion B.A., economics, University of Santa Clara Ph.D. economics, Claremont Graduate School Professional Memberships Ameri an Economic Association Weste n Economic Association Professional Paoers "An E onometric Study of the Supply and Demand for New Housing," presented at the 50th Huai Conference of the Western Economic Association, San Diego, June 1975 "Cabo Skills Substitutability: A Linear Programming Approach," invited participant, acuity Lecture Series, Riverside, January 1975 "Regu ation Induced Technological Change in the Newspaper Industry," presented at the 2nd Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association, Anaheim, June 1977 ~~ ~ ~"°~ ®° ELIZABETH L. LAKINGER q Economic Analyst ~~~ Selec erience Researc Assistant, Marketing Department, Illinois State University Comput Supervisor, Economics Department, Illinois State University Librar Aide, Chicago Public Library T ica Project Accomplishments Develo ed in-depth case study of an Illinois metropolitan area for a theoret- ic 1 and empirical study of urban-rural mortgage credit availability (g vernment agency) Conduc ed literature search and assisted in the analysis of women's labor force pa ticipation in nontraditional occupations using NLS data (government ag ncy) Design d and supervised quality assurance techniques for a study on respiratory he lth (government agency) Develo ed and implemented data processing tasks for all phases of data input an analysis for an environmental health study (government agency) Superv sed data entry and quality assurance techniques, performed computer- as fisted statistical analysis, and reported significant findings for a st dy of chronic respiratory disease (government agency) Assist d in an economic analysis of the agricultural viability of a parcel of la d in Encinitas, California (developer) Design d data collection methodology and assisted in a statistical analysis of th agricultural feasibility of a parcel of land in Carlsbad, California (d veloper) .Assist d in economic feasibility studies of various agricultural parcels located i North County (developer) Desig d data collection methodology and analyzed the salary structure of court r porters in San Diego County (employee association) Colle ted data to define the supply of and demand for restaurant space in L Jolla Assis ed in defining the economic base of a city in Southern California util- i ing various computer-assisted statistical techniques (local government) Assis ed in analyzing demographic and market data to determine customer re- a tion to a federally chartered bank (financial institution) Desig ed data collection methodology to define the attitude of consumers toward t e banking community (unit bank) Colle ted data and analyzed supermarket shopping patterns (food store) Utili ed various multivariate statistical analysis techniques to predict con- s mer behavior based on demographic characteristics (financial institution) Devel ped a comparative analysis of health systems in developed countries t roughout the world (non-profit institution) Education B.S., economics, Illinois State University ~y3b STEVEN E. OPP ~~ Research Analyst Sele ted Experience Rese rch Analyst, Computer Programmer, Copley International Corporation Rese rch Analyst, Arizona State University Cop iter, William F. Arens and Associates Advertising Agency Ty~~i al Pro"ect Accomplishments Inst tuted a library system to facilitate storage of computer disk files, magnetic tape files, and DECtape files Assi ted with quality control of data. for national home mortgage study sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (federal agency) Assi ted with forecasts of newspaper advertising revenues based on economic conditions such as GNP, new housing starts, etc. (private) Deve oped and manipulated large computer data file, generated statistics, assisted analysis on the effects of pollutants in Los Angeles basin area (federal agency) Desi ned questionnaire, and analyzed shoppers at a regional shopping center (private institution) Anal zed future and current marketfor health food industry in Southern Calif- . ornia (private investor) Anal zed trade regions for sporting goods chain (private institution) Deve oped computer data files, subfiles, generated statistics, assisted analy- sis of study to evaluate methods of distribution of water saving devices (state agency) .Assi ted with program to determine reach and frequency of readership for news- papers (private institution) Assi ted with analysis of many current opinion polls in Illinois and California (private institutions) Assi ted with ongoing analysis of retail shopping habits (private institution) Prog ammed computer, assisted with analysis of hospitals and their services (private institution) Assi ted with analysis of local tourist industry (city agency) Assi ted with analysis of retail shopping habits over time in Illinois (private institution) Anal zed attitudes towards newspaper features (private institution) Assi ted with analysis of public attitudes towards X-rated movies (private institution) Educ tion B.S. marketing, Arizona State University Professional Memberships Pi S~Cgma Epsilon, Professional Sales and Marketing Fraternity `1~f 3 ~ 1~ ~ NANCY Field L. TERNULLO Supervisor Selecte Experience Team L der (Questionnaire Administration), Copley International Corporation Team L der (Pulmonary Function Testing,), Copley International Corporation Altern to PFT Team Leader, Copley International Corporation Interv'ewer, Copley International Corporation Interv'ewer, Human Factors Research Interv'ewer, Bank Marketing Research Interv'ewer, Southern California Interviewing Service Interv'ewer, Field Research Corporation Interv'ewer, Mathematica Policy Research Interv'ewer, Lou Harris and Associates, Inc. Proiect Accomplishments EPA's ommunity Health and Environmental Surveillance System (CHESS): Conducted telephone interviews on acute respiratory disease Served as team leader for interviewers recruiting members for an asthma panel Conducted weekly telephone interviews of asthma panelists Conducted telephone interviews of panelists in acute episode and scalp hair sample studies Served as team member and team leader for pulmonary function testing in elementary schools Other tudies Edited and coded family and student self-administered questionnaires on chronic respiratory disease and smoking habits Entered questionnaire data into computer from remote terminal Prepared survey materials for use in chronic respiratory disease study Prepared class lists and pulmonary function testing report forms in preparation for testing in high schools Conducted telephone interviews on various panels of persons involved in • a pilot study Served as team leader for pulmonary function testing team in high schools 9w3~ Selectee Instruc t Instruc S Typical Directe 1 E DeveloF Conduct Perfori l Evalua~ Analyz Develo Conduc Direct Evalua Analyz Conduc Deters Evalu~ Deters Condu~ Analy Const Analy Condu Deter Serve R. PAUL WEDDELL Senior Economic Statistician ..~.~ Experience or, econometrics, Graduate School of Business, United States Interna- onal University (Evening programs 1967-1971) or, statistical decision theory, Graduate School of Business, United ates International University (Evening programs 1968-1976) Project Accomplishments , i the design and implementation of an input/output and econometric model ased system to measure the economic impacts of development (county gov- rnment) ed detailed occupational supply and demand forecasts (government agency) ed feasibility analyses for a new regional shopping center and evaluated lternative sites (major developer) ed market feasibility study for an industrial park and recommended a hased development program (private planning agency) ed the ministerial building permit issuance system with respect to office ocation, efficiency of service, and public opinion and made recommenda- .ions for improvement (county government) ~d impact of growth on various socioeconomic sectors of a major county ;trade group) red detailed advertising lineage forecasting models for six daily newspa- >ers (newspaper group) :ed feasibility analysis for a medium-sized office building (labor union) ~d evaluation of the economic structure of a regional water industry (fed- aral agency) ted market potential for new care dealership (investor group) ed economic feasibility and use policy for new events that could be held in a major stadium (city government) ted study of market feasibility for various residential development pro- grams (major developer) fined effect of odor pollution on property values (federal agency) ted feasibility of shopping center and residential development (develop- ment company) pined impact of new shopping center (merchants group) ted feasibility studies for new banks (investor group) ;ed market potential for luxury 1~igh-rise apartment (developer) -ucted an aggregate index of business activity (publisher) :ed market potential for a second daily newspaper (investor group) :ted feasibility studies for new industrial parks (investor group) pined optimum apartment type and rent structure (construction company) i as editor of quarterly regional economic bulletins (publisher) Educ tion B.A. mathematics, Vanderbilt University M.A. economics, University of California, Berkeley Prof Amer sional Memberships an Economic Association, American Statistical Association, National Associ- ation of Business Economists ~3b ., Q ~~ THE COMPANY Copley International Corporation maintains its corporate he dquarters and facilities for its design and analysis staff in a two-story building in La Jolla, California. This office co tams three permanently installed computer terminals. Other to minals can be added when the workload warrants. These to minals provide direct access to the DECsystem-10 time- - sh ring computer of CIC's sister subsidiary, Copley Computer Se vices, Inc. (CCSI). IEWING OFFICES CIC also maintains two interviewing offices. One, a pe manent facility, is located about eight miles from the he dquarters. This 1,600 square foot office is set up to ommodate central telephone interviewing, editing and coding, computer data entry. It also has a permanently installed puter terminal which is connected to the CCSI computer. Sp ce for additional terminals is available when required by t e data entry workload. The interviewing office is also the 1 cation to which completed face-to-face and mail question- n fires are returned for processing. A second interviewing office is located in Garden Grove, lifornia. This is a project office set up to conduct -47- ~3 ~ tel~phone and face-to-face surveys. Training and briefing mee~ings, supervision, and telephone validation calls con- duc~ed for CIC's Los Angeles area survey projects originate in phis office. DATA PROCESSING FACILITIES Extensive data processing facilities are available to ClClthrough its suster subsidiary, Copley Computer Services, Inc. CCSI has a Digital Equipment..Corporation DECsystem-10 tie-sharing computer. The DECsystem-10, originally known as PDP-10, is used for all central computer data processing se ices. The DECsystem-10 configuration includes 192K 36-bit wo~ds of core memory; a 1.7 million character, high-speed swap- pig drum; three Memorex disk drives (2314 type), storing 27 mi~lion characters each; twelve double-density disk drives ch store 54 million characters each; four magnetic tape dr~ves (9-level, 800 BPI); five DECtape drives; and two 6600 line printers. In addition, a PDP-11 synchronous communi- ca~ions "front-end" provides service for up to 64 low-speed (1¢0-300 baud) lines to the DECsystem-10. This interface orts standard dial-up telephone lines and operates in ASCII mode. The DECsystem-10 operates in a time-sharing ronment and can service up to 69 users at one time. The DE~system-10 supports programs written in ANSI, COBOL, SAS St d FORTRAN IV, Extended BASIC, ALGOL, AID, and MACRO-10. -48- 36 At the present time, more than 4b terminals are connected the DECsystem-10 at CCSI. Any terminal which is Teletype atible, uses the ASCII mode, and converses in full-duplex be attached to the system. These may either be locally a~tached (hard-wired) or remotely attached via telephone lines. V rious terminals now in use include the Teletype Model 33 and 3 Texas Instruments Silent 725, Computer Devices Telterm 1030, D tapoint 3300 CRT, and DEC RTO1 VDT. Upon user demand, these t rminals provide for on-line data entry and interactive report- i~~ in a conversational mode.. The CCSI support staff includes five systems design ecialists, nine senior programmers including two systems programmers, and ten computer operations and control personnel. e programming staff has extensive experience in systems lysis and programming, gained through full responsibility f¢r multi-program system applications, computer-to-computer version, and operational systems support. CCSI is the first b~siness data processing user of the DECsystem-10. With this b ckground, the staff has achieved expertise in utilizing the f 11 potential of the DECsystem-10 for on-line program develop- m nt, on-line interactive terminal-oriented business application s ftware, and remote batch processing. CCSI programmers offer e pert application and production programming in a time-sharing e vironment, executed in COBOL, FORTRAN, BASIC, ALGOL, or assembly language. Current statistical application software used on the -49- ~~ DE system-10 at CCSI includes the Statistical Package for the So ial Sciences (SPSS), the BioMeDical program (BMD), and the Ha~vard Business School package. Data entry is facilitated h a powerful utility program called TECO (Text Editor Corrector) which supports both single-character manipula- tin and string handling. An extensive Data Base Management Sy~tem (DBMS) was added to CCSI's capability in 1975. CCSI maintains a 24-hour-per-day, six-day-per-week op~ration and is able to accammodate continuous processing rek~uirements . CONTROLS In order to assure that this project would be successfully leted within the time frame specified, overall project di~ection would be assigned to an experienced project director, E. Shipman. Mr. Shipman not only is adept at choosing appropriate individuals to form a project team, but he has extensive experience in controlling the progress of both large- and small-scale projects involving survey design, field nistration, and analysis of survey findings. Progress of the work in process can, under CIC's systems, easily be assessed at any stage of the study. By delineating tasks and manhours associated with these tasks, the progress ofd the study can be measured in terms of contract resources fining for each task or in terms of the manhours of effort ~ded for completion. -50- Lib On on ~ CIC possesses a sophisticated, computerized system which elops a variety of information for the project director. a weekly schedule, the following information is computed a project and task basis: • Individual working on specific tasks • By specific day, the number of hours each indi- vidual has worked on the project • Direct labor costs • Local expense • Travel expenses • Communication costs • Publication costs • Posting and shipping expenses • Subscription and publications costs In short, CIC's weekly operating report informs the project di ector of the study's precise financial status as well as level of effort expended to date. AND PRIOR EXPERIENCE The majority of research projects undertaken by CIC rely he vily on the use of specialized survey and sampling tech- ni ues. In addition, the firm is quite experienced in the ar a of data processing. CIC's clients for such work have in luded local, state, and Federal agencies in addition to pr'vate sector clients. Most projects undertaken by CIC s olve the use of our analytical expertise. On various dies, CIC's ability for analysis has addressed issues of -51- 3~ empirical, statistical, and theoretical nature. The ncy: City of San Diego tract Amount: $55,000 lesion Date: March 4, 1977 t Technical Representative: lowing are projects which indicate CIC's survey research analysis capabilities. Sdcial Needs Assessment Wo Mr. Tom Eggleston Chief, Research and Evaluation Division Department of Housing and Community Services City of San Diego 1222 First Avenue San Diego, California 92101 Telephone: 714/236-6472 rk Content: A social service needs assessment study was conducted under contract to the City of San Diego. The objective of this project was to identify social problems throughout the City and the types of services needed to satisfy those problems. The survey portion of this pro- ject included over 2,200 personal interviews with a sample of San Diego citizens. Throughout the project, CIC worked closely with the City to assist them in developing a capability to carry out additional data analysis tasks on the survey master file. -52- 9 3~ Community Services Evaluation Ag ncy: City of Lpng Beach Co tract Amount: $33,180 Co pletion Date: April 6, 1979 Go ernment Technical Representative:. Ms. Sherry A. Suttles Executive Assistant to the City Manager City of Long Beach 333 West Ocean Boulevard Long Beach, California 90802 Telephone: 213/590-6711 Wo k Content: A citizen attitude and awareness survey is being conducted with a random sample of 1,120 adults living in the City. The objective of the project is to determine awareness of and usage of services provided by 14 City departments. The interviews are being conducted face-to-face in citizen households. The results of the project are to be used as part of the decision process in setting the 1979-1980 budget. Ev luation of Household Water Savin Devices Ag ncy: California Department of Water Resources Co tract Amount: $58,850 Co pletio:~ Date: May 1, 1978 ernment Technical Representative: Mx. Jim S. Koyasako Project Analysis Officer California Department of Glater Resources 1416 Ninth Street Sacramento, California 95802 Telephone: 916/445-9959 -53- y 3~ W objective of these surveys was to evaluate specific I Content: A series of surveys was conducted for the State of California Department of Water Resources. The types of water saving devices and. device distribution methods in anticipation of a statewide program to reduce household water consumption. Moxe than 7,000 household interviews were conducted during a seven-week period as a part of this project . tory of Environmental Resources for City of Long Beach Ag ncy: City of Long Beach Co tract Amount: $71,300 (combined total) Co pletion Date: June, 1974 t Technical Representative: Mr. Ellis. K. Crow Principal Planner Advance Planning Division Department of City Planning 333 West Ocean Boulevard Long Beach, California 90802 Wo -k Content: This project was undertaken for the purpose of providing the City of Long Beach with an inventory of its environmental resources and problems. This data base was used as an input to the development of the Open Space, Conservation, and Environmental Elements of the General Plan for the City of Long Beach. The study involved making seasonal field surveys of the terrestrial and aquatic flora and fauna to provide an inventory of exist- ing populations. Specific projects completed in this series of contracts were: -54- ~N~ • Biological and Water Quality Inventories of Long Beach, July 1973 • Long Beach Environmental Element Avifaunal Survey, Volumes I and II, June 1974 • Botanical Survey and Ecological Habitats of Long Beach, Spring-Summer 1973 and Winter 1974 • Zoological Survey, City of Long Beach, Spring- Summer 1973 and Winter 1974 • Water Quality and Saltwater Habitats of Long Beach, Spring-Summer 1973 and Winter 1974 letion Date: September 30, 1978 t Technical Representative: IdE ent Cat ztification of Existence of Any Housing Credid Market Differ- ~als Between Rural and Other Areas and Identification of yes of Such Differentials cy: Department of Housing and Urban Development Contract Amount: $399,270 Worl Mr. Mike Molesky Policy Development and Research U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 451 Seventh Street, S.W. tJashington, DC 20410 Telephone: 202/755-5426. k Content: This study of the housing credit market in the United States was conducted at two levels of aggrega- tion: the national level, for the purpose of establishing some general propositions about the characteristics of rural and urban housing and housing finance markets; and at the local level, by selecting a sample of four rural areas representing different types of rural characteris- tics as well as four nearby metropolitan areas for the purpose of comparative analysis in a case study format. -55- N3~ The data for the local analysis were obtained by a survey of households and a survey of mortgage lending institutions. This surveying effort occurred over a three-month period. Due to the nature of the project and the geographical areas involved, the actual surveying was done on a daily basis and up to ten hours a day over a three-month period. The objective of the work was to determine, through descriptive and econometric analysis, the existence of any housing credit market differentials between urban and rural areas. MetJhodology Study of Intervie~+~er Versus Self-Administration of School and Family Health_Questionnaires Ag ncy: Environmental Protection Agency Co tract Amount: $99,804 Co letion Date: July 20, 1978 W ~rnment Technical Representative: Dr. Dorothy C. Calafiore Population Studies Division Health Effects Research Laboratory Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, Forth Carolina 27711 Telephone: 919/541-2674 Content: The purpose of this study was to collect data, using the School and Family Health Questionnaire, from two randomly chosen groups of parents living in the Anaheim City Elementary School District. One of the groups used a self-administered questionnaire which was distributed to respondents through their child's school, while the questionnaire was administered to the second -56- y ~ ~b group by a trained interviewer. The elapsed time for the administration of the two sampling methods was approximately five weeks, The two sets of data were compared for possible differences between the method employed. Subsamples of parents who were smokers were asked to participate in pulmonary, function testing to facilitate the validation of a chronic respiratory disease symptom classification that had been developed based on parents' responses to questions on the School and Family Health Questionnaire. u3~ I -57-