HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Statement 1980/11/18 Item 18
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COUNCIL AGENDA STATEMENT
Item
18
Meeting Date
lii/18/80
ITEM TITLE: Resolution /4~).1- Adop~ing the final S~r~e~ V Gr~wth F~recasts f~r.
Chula Vista and call1ng upon CPO to lnltlate dlScusslons pertalnlng
to the preparation of a regional growth management plan
SUBMITTEO BY: Director of Planning ~ (4/5ths Vote: Yes No-L)
Subsequent to the adoption of the CPO Series IV Regional Growth Forecasts by each of the
region's cities and the county in 1977, the CPO Board directed that the forecasts be up-
dated every two years to reflect changes in plans, policies, and other factors affecting
growth. The preliminary results of the first biennial update, called the Series V fore-
casts, were presented to Council in July, and have since undergone local staff review and
revision. The CPO Board is now aSking for regionwide adoption of the final Series V figures.
RECOMMENDATION: That Council
Adopt the attached resolution endorsing the final Series V Growth Forecasts for Chula
Vista and calling upon CPO to once again initiate discussion of ways of limiting air
pollution including the possibility of. development of a region-wide growth management plan.
DISCUSSION
1. Regionwide Forecasts.
The San Diego region is expected to grow by an average of 18,000 new jobs and 44,000
new residents per year, reaching a total population of 2.47 million by the year 1995.
The 660,000 new residents expected between 1980 and 1995 is greater than the 610,000
residents added during the last fifteen years and represents a 36 percent increase over
the 1.81 mi'llion people estimated to live within the region on January 1,1980. In order
to accommodate this growth, Series V projects that over 122,000 acres of presently open
land will be converted to urban uses, thus doubling the size of the existing urbanized
portion of the region.
The total 1995 population forecast by Series V is very close to that forecast by
Series IV--2.47 million versus 2.46 million. However, regional growth is more rapid
during the early years under Series V, and the distribution of growth within the region
has shifted somewhat with proportional gains for the North County and South Bay and a
proportional loss for the Central_Metropo~_t~n._ . _ .:" ..... ._.___
2. Chula Vista Forecasts.
The following table presents the basic Series V forecast items for both the present
city boundaries and the Chula Vista Planning Area, which in addition to the city includes
the unincorporated territory within the El Rancho del Rey, Bonita-Sunnyside and Castle
Park (Montgomery) communities. Exhibits A and B, attached hereto, present the detailed
city and planning area forecasts.
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continued
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Form A-113 (Rev. 11/79)
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EXHIBITS
Agreement_____ Resolution--1L- Ordinance_____ Plat_____ Notification List
Other 4 Exhibits
ENVIRONMENTAL DOCUMENT: Attached
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Page 2, Item
18
Meeting Date
11/18/80
Series V Growth Forecasts
Chula Vista City and Chula Vista Planning Area
Chula Vista City
(present City boundaries)
Total population
Occupied housing units
Civilian employment
1980 1985 1995 2000
82,200 90.,000 113,400 118,400
30,355 33,500 44,300 47,500
(28,962)* 31,100 36,200 38,900
Chula Vista Planning Area
Total population
Occupied housing units.
Civilian employment
1980
111,290
40,676
( 34,827) *
1985
135,400
49,100
43,200
1995
2000
188,700
73,200
57,100
182,700
69,100
51,900
* 1978 Civilian Employment
As noted in the table, Series V indicates that the City will grow by 31,200 residents,
or 38 percent by.1995, The remainder of the Planning Area is expected to increase by
40,210 people, or a ~8 percent increase over the same period of time, For comparison,
during the last fifteen years the City added 28,400 residents, for an increase of
53 percent, while the remainder of the Planning Area grew by 15,800 people, or an increase
of 120 percent.
Both the City and Planning Area 'a're expected to grow less by .1995 than projected by
~:;. the Series IV Forecasts.. Exhibit. C, attached he~~'to, presents. aC..9ri1parison of'the"
adopted series IV and final Series V Forecasts. q '.
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3. Significance of the Forecasts
In order to understand the significance of the forecast figures, it is important to
remember that the forecasting process involves first estimating the expected total
reqionwide population growth, and then distributing this expected growth to places to
live and work. The total represents the level and rate of population growth that is
likely in the region based on current and projected trends in fertility, mortality,
migration, and current public policies affecting such population-related factors as
employment growth. The distribution of the total to places to live .and work is based
on the availability and accessibility of developable and redevelopable urban land as
reflected in local general plans and policies. In other words, the forecasts for
Chula Vista represent the portion of total regional growth which the City and Planning
Area are expected to attract based on present local plans and policies. .Should these
plans or policies change, such as the adoption of a growth management plan, then a
greater or lesser share of regional growth would be attracted to our area, and this
would be reflected in subsequent biennial forecast updates.
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Continued
Page 3, Item
Meeting Date 11 /18/80
18
The forecasts are used at the local level for general and community planning, public
facility planning, and growth management planning. At the regional level, the forecasts
are used for planning for air quality, water quality, public facilities, transportation.
energy, housing and clearinghouse review. Since the, forecasts represent a regional
consensus on growth, they 'have also enjoyed considerable status in dealing with federal
and state agencies concerning grant applications for population serving facilities.
4. Accuracy of the Forecasts.
Using an average annual growth figure from the Series IV 1977-85 forecast, it is possible
to extrapolate an approximate Series IV forecast for 1980. For Chula Vista, this proce-
dure results in a forecast approximately 3 percent greater than our current population
estimate. At the regional level this procedure results in a forecast .05 percent lower
than the current population estimate.
5. Impacts of Forecasted ,Growth.
The CPO has prepared an environmental assessment of the Series V Forecasts in order to
assess the impacts of projected growth on '18 separate areas of concern. Exhibit D,
attached hereto, presents a tabular summary of the extent of these impacts, and compares
them with the impacts associated with the adopted Series IV Forecasts. The follo~ling
discussion capsulizes CPO's findings in the four areas of concern in which "the rate
or location of growth in Series V may present a severe problem for the San Die90 region
in meeting local, state or federal goals and objectives." These four areas are air
quality, energy; municipal finance, and transportation.
Air Quality: The increased rate of growth associated with Series V will make it
difficult to meet mandated national air quality standards without significant
additional cost and/or disruption of current lifestyles. Specifically, CPO has
estimated that the existing Regional Air Quality Strategy (RAQS) will fall 35-55
tons per day short of meeting federal emission standards by 1987 under Series V
population projections. This is significant because any additional sizable emission
,reductions will be extremely difficult to accomplish even with costly and unpopular
mitigating measures. Nevertheless, the 1982 RAQS, by federal law, must show attainment
of the emission standards by 1987. Thus, the 1982 RAQS will probably contain some
strategies offensive to all of us. Failure to show reasonable progress toward
meeting the 1987 deadline could lead to the imposition of federal sanctions,
including the withholding of highway and sewer treatment funds, and/or a ban on
major new sources of pollution.
Energy: There is a likelihood of electricity shortages in the late 1980's and 1990's
given the uncertainties in'the region's ability to either double electrical generating
capacity to keep pace with growth or to implement aggressive ener9Y conservation
measures.
Municipal Finance: The rapid 9rowth rate projected for many of the region's munlCl-
palities, including Chula Vista, creates the recurring need for costly public
facilities and improvements and is expected to adversely affect the financial status
of these communities without offsetting service cutbacks or delays, further increases
in user fees, and/or jumps in front-end costs to new home buyers.
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Page 4, Item 18
Meeting Date 11/18/80
Transportation: Increased highway congestion and a general decline in travel
mobility will result'from growth in population coupled with diminishing improvements
to the highway network due to inflation and the fact that a larger percentage of
total highway dollars are being spent on maintenance and rehabilitation of existing
roadways.
6. Conclusion.
Based upon the availability of developable and redevelopable urban land as reflected in
existing local plans and policies, the region can more than accommodate the expected
demand for growth over the next 20 years, although not without significant adverse environ-
mental impacts, 'and/or significant'disruption of current life styles and standards of
living. Because of the seriousness of the air quality problem and the possible conse-
quences of not showing 'progress 'in meeting the 1987 federal clean air standards, and
because of the energy; municipal finance, and transportation problems foreseen for the
area under projected growth'rates, it seems clear that the CPO should initiate a dis-
cussion of ways to limit air'pollution sources, including a region-wide growth management
plan.
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by the City COuncil of
Chura Vista, California
Dated //-4' ~ cfo
! 0327