HomeMy WebLinkAbout2009/11/03 Item 4
CITY COUNCIL
AGENDA STATEMENT
~v~ ClIT OF
.~& (HULA VISTA
Hem No.: J.\
Meeting Date: 11-03-09
ITEM TITLE:
Resolution of the City Council of the City of Chula Vista
authorizing staff to transmit a land use scenario to SANDAG for
use in preparation of the 2050 Regional Growth Forecast
Deputy City ManagltRtreetor of Development Services
SUBMITTED BY:
REVIEWED BY:
I!A )
City Manager~
~
4/5THS VOTE: YES
NO~
SUMMARY
In August 2009, staff provided a report and San Diego Association of Government (SANDAG)
staff made a presentation to the City Council regarding SAj\JDAG's 2050 Growth Forecast and the
need for residential housing capacity to meet projected demands to 2050. Per SANDAG's request
and Council direction, staff has reviewed thc four model scenarios that SANDAG has created. This
report outlines the effects each of the scenarios would have on Chula Vista, and presents an
alternative scenario for Chula Vista for City Council consideration.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
The Environmental Review Coordinator has reviewed the proposed activity for compliance with
the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and has determined that the activity is not a
"Project" as detined under Section 15378 of the State CEQA Guidelines because transmittal of a
land use scenario to SANDAG for modeling purposes only will not result in a physical change to
the environment; therefore, pursuant to Section l5060( c )(3) of the State CEQA Guidelines the
activity is not subject to CEQA. Thus, no envirorunental review is necessary.
RECOMMENDATION
That the City Council adopt the attached resolution authorizing staff to transmit a land usc
scenario to SANDAG for use in preparation of the 2050 regional gro\Vih forecast.
4-1
Item No.: 4
Meeting Date: 11-03-09
Page 2 of6
BOARDS/COMMISSION RECOMMENDA nON
Not applicable
DISCUSSION
Background
Approximately every 5 years, SANDAG prepares a Regional Growth Forecast as part of its
requirements for receiving federal and state transportation funding, among other purposes. The
Forecast is used to prepare the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and a variety of other regional
planning documents and funding programs, including the Smart Growth Incentive Grant Program.
Through early work on the forecast, SANDAG has identified that the collective housing capacity
of adopted land use plans across the region is not sufficient to accommodate proj ected growth.
The region effectively runs out of available housing capacity around 2030-35, and needs about
70,000 more units to meet remaining forecast demand to 2050. In past forecasts, when supply
within the region was saturated, housing demand was exported to adjoining regions in Imperial,
Orange and Riverside Counties, and Baja California. Under SB375, the region needs to
internally accommodate that capacity, and cannot effectively export that demand as in the past.
As a result, the 2050 Forecast needs to model housing capacities beyond those in adopted plans.
The forecast typically looks out 25 years; however, SANDAG is now extending the forecast out to
2050. There are several factors behind SA1"JDAG's extending the current forecast's horizon to
2050. By extending out to 2050 the upcoming RTP update will cover the duration of the TransNet
sales tax that expires in 2048. In addition, the County Water Authority (CW A) is updating its
Urban Water Management Plan that extends beyond 2035; and the forecast will be used to develop
the region's first Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) as required by the passage of SB375.
The SCS will address the region's ability to meet State Greenhouse Gas (C02) reduction
requirements that have benchmark performance milestone years extending to 2050.
SANDAG has been working with the regions' planning and community development directors
through the Regional Planning Technical Working Group (TWG) to identify a series of land use
scenarios that could bridge the housing capacity gap. As reported to Council in August, four
scenarios were produced and SANDAG requested every jurisdiction to review and provide input
regarding a suitable capacity scenario for their jurisdiction. Staff has evaluated SANDAG's
scenarios based on the policies in our General Plan regarding the proximity of high intensity
residential to transit and the need to maintain existing stable neighborhoods. As a result of our
evaluation, staff has produced an alternate scenario that could result in an increase in the City's
residential capacity consistent with the policies of the General Plan. It is important to remember
that forecasting growth is not an exact science and that staff has endeavored to compose a future
growth scenario that we believe is reasonable.
The following presents each of the four scenarios developed by SANDAG and why staff feels
they are not reasonable to use for the 2050 Forecast. Included is a brief discussion of the
adopted General Plan to provide a benchmark for the evaluation of the scenarios.
4-2
Item No.: '-I
Meeting Date: 11-03-09
Page 3 of 6
Existing Plan and Policies - 2005 General Plan
The existing General Plan Update (GPU) was adopted in 2005 and encompasses a variety of
"Smart Growth" planning themes including the concept of increased mobility through many
modes of transportation. As a result, the Land Use Element of the General Plan included
increased densities and capacities in several areas including the City's Urban Core Specific Plan,
the Southwest and the Otay Ranch. A total of 16,400 units (including the deferral area) were
added through the GPU bringing the City's current overall residential growth capacity to 27,600
units. This represents slightly more than a doubling of our previous capacity. General Plan
capacity assumcs that dcvelopment occurs at mid-range densities, typically in the 75th percentile
and takes into account constraints such as topography, envirorunental considerations and existing
development. It assumes there will be redevelopment in selected locations as well as
development in those areas of the City that are currently vacant. Chula Vista's current capacity
represents about 7.4% of the region's capacity based on the adopted General Plans of all of the
jurisdictions in the County.
Maximum Plan Densitv
The maximum plan density scenario presumes that all new development and planned
redevelopment would occur at the maximum density allowed under the General Plan. This
would result in an additional 6,944 units beyond the 27,600 units currently anticipated. Under
this scenario, these additional units would be spread uniformly onto all of the identified
development/redevelopment properties throughout the City. Spreading density throughout the
City is contrary to the Smart Growth concept used to develop the General Plan. As Smart
Growth policies dictate, the GPU added capacity in areas where transit was readily available as
well as services within a reasonable walking distance. Also, as noted above, our experience is
that actual development averages around 75% of the General Plan density. A scenario that
assumes that all developable parcels will develop at their maximum allowable density is
Wlrealistic.
"10 Minute Walk" Transit Station Redevelopment
This scenario presumes that all areas with multi-family and mixed-use designations within a 10-
minute walk of the existing high frequency transit stops (existing trolley and major bus stops)
can be redeveloped to a maximum plan density, or a minimum of 25du/acre (whichever is
greater). It also presumes that commercial lands can be redeveloped to a residential mixed-use
maximum of 25 du/acre.
The scenario would result in densification up to 25 duJacre within areas included in the Urban
Core Specific Plan (UCSP). Some portions of the UCSP are currently intended to have
residential development up to 60 du/ac (Residential-High); however other multi-family
designations in the UCSP are lower than 25 du/ac. This scenario illogically spreads 25 du/ac
densities to all multi-family areas in the UCSP including those that are not intended to have this
high of a density. This scenario assumes that all commercial land within the UCSP will
redevelop as mixed use residential with a minimum of 25 du/acres. SANDAG's assumptions
apply to purely commercial lands including those that are intended to remain entirely
commercial with no mixed used component.
4-3
Item No.: If
Meeting Date: 11-03-09
Page 4 of6
Under this scenario, development would also occur at 25/du acre along both sides of "H" Street
east of 1-805 between Telegraph and Olympic Parkway to an area slightly east of its intersection
with Otay Lakes Road. The General Plan designates the "H" Street corridor with a range of
residential uses, most of which are far less than 25 du/acre.
This scenario would result in an additional 21,217 dwelling units beyond the current General
Plan and would create densification in many of the City's established stable neighborhoods.
The higher density in this scenario is spread over a much larger portion of the City than
anticipated in the General Plan.
Transit Investment Area
This scenario presumes that all muti-family and mixed-use planned lands within the "Transit
Investment Area" can be built to maximum plan density, or a minimum of25 duJac (whichever
is greater). The "Transit Investment Area" has been defined as areas where in the future the
Transit Providers (MTS and NCTS) will focus infrastructure investments and services such as
enhanced bus stations/stops and more frequent bus stops. The "Transit Investment Area" covers
most of the western portion of the City and a great deal of the eastern portion as well. This
scenario will result in an additional 15,021 dwelling units beyond the current General Plan. As
with the "10 Minute Walk" scenario, this scenario would also introduce high density
development into existing stable neighborhoods within both the west and east sides of the City.
Smart Growth Area Scenario
This scenario presumes that existing/planned Smart Growth areas, identified on the SANDAG
"Smart Growth Concept Map" (Concept Map) are built to maximum plan density. This would
result in an additional 4,742 units beyond the capacity that is currently anticipated in the adopted
GP. The Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) developed by SANDAG calls for better
coordination between land use and transportation. The Concept Map identifies locations in the
region, 15 of which are in Chula Vista, that can support smart growth and transit in various types
of areas. Many of the locations identified by SANDAG were included in the General Plan
Update "Areas of Change" and much of the needed future residential capacity was already added
through the GPU.
The Concept Plan identifies areas for Smart Growth in both the UCSP and Southwest. Prior to
the GPU the maximum residential growth capacity in the UCSP area was 10,481 units; following
the GPU the capacity is 16,781 units, an increase of 6,300 units. Prior to the GPU the maximum
capacity in Southwest was 4,724 units, following the GPU the maximum capacity in Southwest
is 8,224. Through the General Plan the density that was added into existing areas considered the
constraints that existed. These constraints include an existing infrastructure network that
provides roads, schools, parks, etc. SANDAG's assumes these Smart Growth areas will develop
to the maximum density and does do not take into consideration the constraints of the already
built environment.
The Concept Map also identifies several Smart Growth areas in the Otay Ranch. Some are
already developed areas such as the Heritage Village in Village One and the Otay Ranch Town
Center and others are in the planning phase such as the Eastern Urban Center (EUe) and
4-4
Item No.: 1-
Meeting Date: 11-03-09
Page 5 of 6
University Villages. Capacity within the Otay Ranch (including the deferral area) had an
increase of 6,600 units as a result of the GPU. Staff does believe that there are areas in the Otay
Ranch that can accommodate additional residential capacity and those areas in Otay Ranch that
are potentially suitable for increased residential densities are included in staffs recommended
alternative scenario. Since portions of Otay Ranch are undeveloped sufficient opportunities
remain to provide the necessary infrastructure.
Staff Recommended Alternative Land Use Capacitv Scenario
In 2008, the City entered into two separate Land Offer Agreements (LOAs) in order to secure
land for the University and Regional Technology Park envisioned in the General Plan. The
LOAs generally provide for potential development beyond the GPU of approximately 6,500
dwelling units between both ownerships, in exchange for approximately 210 acres of land
conveyed to the City for use as a University and Regional Technology Park and other
considerations. Currently, staff is reviewing proposed General Plan amendments for a portion of
the land covered by the LOAs. Through this evaluation the necessary infrastructure will be
identified and planned for.
The City's General Plan capacity Citywide is currently 27,600 and the LOAs would increase the
capacity by 6,500 units to a total of 34, I 00. For the reasons stated above, staff believes that the
residential capacity anticipated from the LOAs is a preferable modeling alternative for
SANDAG's use in determining the 2050 Forecast.
Staff also feels this is a reasonable fair share for Chula Vista. The additional 6,500 residential
units represent approximately 9% of the 70,000 units identified as the region's shortfall. As
previously mentioned, Chula Vista's existing General Plan capacity represents about 7.4% of the
region's residential capacity.
As noted above, forecasting growth is not an exact science; it is the regional planners' best
estimate of where and how growth will occur in the region. The "additional" units are for
purposes of forecasting and long-range regional planning. There is no obligation on the part of
the City to either approve or build these units. City staff will continue to work with SANDAG
staff to refine the scenario assumptions. These assumptions will include development
phasing/timing such as inclusion in the models of the additional residential capacity beyond the
year 2030-2035. This time period is a reasonable assumption for the increased growth since
2030 is the buildout horizon of the current General Plan and 2030-2035 is the time period
SANDAG estimates the existing capacity in the region would be exhausted.
DECISION-MAKER CONFLICTS:
Staff has reviewed the decision contemplateu by this action and has determined that it is not site
specific and consequently the 500 foot rule found in California Code of Regulations Section
I 8704.2(a)(l ) is not applicable to this decision.
4-5
Item No.: if
Meeting Date: 11-03-09
Page 6 of 6
FISCAL IMPACT
None. Staff time associated with the proposed forecast review is already included in the adopted
FY2009-10 budget.
ONGOING FISCAL IMPACT
None; the associated review will be completed by December 2009.
ATTACHMENTS
N/A
Prepared by: lvIarilyn Ponseggi. Principal Planner, Development Services Department
J: IPlanningv.HARlLYN\2050 ForecastlAgSt.j 1.3.09~FlNAL.doc
4-6
RESOLUTION 2009 -
RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF
CHULA VISTA AUTHORIZING STAFF TO TRANSMIT A
LAND USE SCENARIO TO SANDAG FOR USE IN
PREPARATION OF THE 2050 REGIONAL GROWTH
FORECAST
WHEREAS, the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) prepares a Regional
Growth Forecast every five years as part of its requirements for receiving federal and state
transportation funding; and
WHEREAS, as a result of State legislation the Regional Growth Forecast must project
growth to the year 2050; and
WHEREAS, SANDAG has identitied that the collective housing capacity of the adopted
land use plans across the region are not sufficient to accommodate projected grow1h to the year
2050; and
WHEREAS, SAl'IDAG has been working with the Cities in the region to identify a series
of land use scenarios that could bridge the housing capacity gap; and
WHEREAS, SANDAG has requested the City's'assistance in determining an appropriate
land use scenario for Chula Vista to be used in the 2050 Forecast that is currently being formulated;
and
WHEREAS, the General Plan Update was adopted in 2005 and encompasses a variety of
"Smart Growth" planning themes that resulted in increased densities and capacities in several
areas of the City; and
WHEREAS, the City has entered into Land Offer Agreements (LOAs) with two property
owners within Otay Ranch that could provide for potential development beyond the GPU of
approximately 6,500 dwelling units; and
WHEREAS, City staff has identified that the Land Use Scenario that includes the
residential densities identified in the Land Offer Agreements should be transmitted to SANDAG as
an alternative land use scenario for Chula Vista for SANDAG to use in preparing the 2050 Regional
Growth Forecast; and
4-7
WHEREAS, the Environmental Review Coordinator has reviewed the proposed activity
for compliance with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and has determined that
the activity is not a "Project" as defined under Section 15378 of the State CEQA Guidelines
because transmittal of a land use scenario to SANDAG for modeling purposes only will not
result in a physical change to the environment; therefore, pursuant to Section 15060(c)(3) of the
State CEQA Guidelines the activity is not subject to CEQA. Thus, no environmental review is
necessary.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City Council of the City ofChula Vista
does hereby authorize staff to transmit an alternative Land Use Scenario that includes the residential
densities identified in the Land Offer Agreements as depicted in Exhibit A to SANDAG.
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the City Council directs staff to work with SANDAG
on determining appropriate development phasing/timing for the scenario that will add the
additional residential capacity to the Forecast-beyond the year 2030-2035.
Presented by
Approved as to form by
Gary Halbert, AICP, PE
Deputy City Manager/Director of
Development Services
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