HomeMy WebLinkAbout2009/08/11 Item 18CITY COUNCIL
AGENDA STATEMENT
CITY OF
CHULA VISTA
AUGUST 11, 2009, Item
ITEM TITLE: REPORT; PRESENTATION BY THE SAN DIEGO
ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS (SANDAG)
REGARDING PREPARATION OF THE 2050 REGIONAL
GROWTH FORECAST, AND REQUEST FOR CITY
ASSISTANCE
SUBMITTED BY: DEPUTY CITY MANAGI/ DIRECTOR OF
DEVELOPMENT SEnR,~V^ICES
REVIEWED BY: CITY MANAGER
4/STNS VOTE: YES ~ NO
SUMMARY
The City Council will receive a presentation from SANDAG staff regarding the 2050
Regional Growth Forecast. SANDAG will request City assistance in helping to develop
local land use scenarios to be used in generating forecast projections to the year 2050. At
present, collective land use plans of the region's jurisdictions do not contain enough
residential housing capacity to meet projected demands to 2050, and approximately an
additional 70,000 units would be needed region-wide. SANDAG is meeting with all
jurisdictions to provide background information about forecast requirements, present
possible approaches to modeling additional capacity, and to request local jurisdictions to
review those approaches (or other locally preferred options) and provide input back to
SANDAG by October 2009 on a suitable local capacity scenario for their jurisdiction to
be used in the 2050 Forecast.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
Not applicable.
RECOMMENDATION
That Council support SANDAG's request, and direct staff to review possible capacity-
adding forecast options and return to Council with recommendations for consideration.
BOARDS/COMMISSION RECOMMENDATION
Not applicable.
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August 11, 2009, Item ~B
Page 2 of 3
DISCUSSION
Approximately every 5 yeazs, SANDAL prepazes a Regional Growth Forecast as part of its
requirements for receiving federal and state transportation funding, among other purposes.
The Forecast is used to prepaze the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and a variety of
other regional planning documents and funding programs, including the Smart Growth
Incentive Grant Program. The forecast typically looks out 25 yeazs, however, there aze
several factors behind SANDAG's extending the current forecast's horizon to 2050, namely;
the upcoming RTP update will extend to 2050 to cover the duration of TransNet sales tax
which expires in 2048; the County Water Authority (CWA) is updating its Urban Water
Management Plan which extends beyond 2035, and the forecast will be used to develop the
region's first Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) as required by the passage of SB375.
The SCS will address the region's ability to meet State Greenhouse Gas (C02) reduction
requirements that have benchmark performance milestone years extending to 2050.
Through early work on the forecast, SANDAL has identified that the collective housing
capacity of adopted land use plans across the region is not sufficient to accommodate
projected growth. The region effectively runs out of available housing capacity around
2030-35, and needs about 70,000 more units to meet remaining forecast demand to 2050.
In past forecasts, when supply within the region was saturated, housing demand was
exported to adjoining regions in Imperial, Orange and Riverside Counties, and Baja
California. Under SB375 the region needs to internally accommodate that capacity, and
cannot effectively export that demand as it has in the past. As a result, the 2050 Forecast
needs to model housing capacities beyond those in adopted plans.
SANDAL has been working with the region's planning and community development
directors through the Regional Planning Technical Working Group (TWG) to identify a
series of initial land use scenarios that could bridge the housing capacity gap. Twelve
scenarios were originally conceived, and were narrowed to five scenarios for further
examination, along with a sixth option for jurisdiction-specific scenarios. The attached
memo from SANDAL (see Attachment 1) outlines these options that will be covered in
SANDAG's presentation. Recognizing that one size does not fit all, the SANDAL Board
directed their staff to work with each jurisdiction to review the options to determine
which (if any) provide a suitable 2050 land use scenario for that jurisdiction.
SANDAG's presentation is informational in nature and no action on any of the scenarios
is requested of Council. SANDAL is asking that each jurisdiction subsequently review
the scenarios and provide input back to SANDAL by October 2009 on which of the five,
or if a substitute scenario, should be used for Chula Vista in the 2050 Forecast.
If directed by Council, staff intends to review the various scenarios' implications for
Chula Vista, and return to Council with recommendations for discussion not later than
early October. Understanding that additional housing capacity has an effect on facilities,
services, and fiscal matters; our review will include consideration of potential social and
financial implications. Based on Council input and direction at that time, staff will
forward a preferred forecast scenario (or a hybrid) for Chula Vista to SANDAL for use in
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August 11, 2009, Item
Page 3 of 3
preparation of the Drafr 2050 Forecast. The Draft Forecast will be subject to further
jurisdictional review in November/December 2009.
DECISION MAKER CONFLICT
Not Applicable:
Staff has reviewed the decision contemplated by this action and has determined that it is
not site specific and consequently the 500 foot rule found in California Code of
Regulations Section 18704.2(a)(1) is not applicable to this decision.
CURRENT YEAR FISCAL IMPACT
None. Staff time associated with the proposed forecast review is already included in the
adopted FY2009-10 budget.
ONGOING FISCAL IMPACT
None; the associated review will be completed by October 2009.
ATTACHMENTS
1. SANDAG memorandum
Prepared by: Ed Batchelder, Advance Planning Manager, Development Services Department
J: IPlartninglEDISANDAGISANDAG 2050 Forecast Final A/l3.doc
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401 s street suite 800 July 24, 2009
San D1egD, fA 92 101-423 1
(579) 699-1900
Fax (619) 649-1905
www.sandag.org
TO: 'ego Region Cities and County
FROM: or Lori Holt Pfeiler, SANDAG Board Chair
MEMBER AGFNdES
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SUBJECT: 2050 Regional Growth forecart
File Number 3100900
In its role as the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the San Diego region,
SANDAG prepares a regional growth forecast every four years. The regional
forecast is largely based on local land use plans and policies, and is meant to
reasonably identify where growth is projected to occur in the region over the
long term. The forecast is completed through amulti-rtep, collaborative
process that involves input from local jurisdictions (in particular, the planning
and community development directors who serve on the Regional Planning
Technical Working Group (TWG)), citizens, and elected officials. in addition to
local outreach, SANDAG staff conducts peer review by outside experts
including demographers, economists, developers, and natural resource
managers to evaluate economic and demographic assumptions about fertility,
migration, inflation, and other indicators.
Over the past three decades, this collaborative process has resulted in forecasts
that have been quite accurate. As such, SANDAG forecasts have served as a
valuable planning tool for regional and local infrastructure providers such as
transportation agencies, school districts, water suppliers, and others.
SANDAG currently is developing a forecast extending to 2050. The 2050
Regional Growth Forecast' will be the first step in developing the 2050
Regional Transportation Plan (RTP}. As part of the RTP, the 2050 forecast will
serve as the basis for the region's first Sustainable Communities Strategy. The
forecast also will be used in developing the Regional Housing Needs
Assessment (RHNA) and updating the next Regional Comprehensive Plan
(RCP). Finally, as with past forecasts, the 2050 Forecast also will support local
land use, capital improvement, and water resource planning efforts
throughout the region.
2050 Grovvth: Change and Challenges
Previous forecarts have consistently shown that the San Diego region will
continue to grow although at reduced rates in the future. This forecast is no
different and preliminary draft projections suggest that the region will
' SANDAG denotes forecasts by a sequential series number. The current working forecast is
known as the.5eries 12: 2050 Regional Growth Forecast.
approach 4.4 million residents, 1.9 million jobs, and 1.5 million housing units by 2050 (see Figure 1.)
Most of the projected residential growth can be accommodated based on adopted general plans
and policies; however, draft projections show the region's housing demand exceeds planned
housing capacity before 2050.
Based on land use and general plan input from the TWG, draft analysis indicates that local plans
would be able to accommodate more
than the 500,000 additional jobs
projected by 2050, but would come up
short in planned housing, with capacity
for only 380,000 units out of the 450,000
projected. This results in a projected
shortfall of 70,000 housing units
(approximately 15 percent) by 2050.
This analysis is based on information
from exirting general plans, including
the County of San Diego draft plan
update, areas considered most likely for
redevelopment based on local input,
and information on natural constraints
to development, such as steep slopes, Figure t. Draft 2050 Growth Projections for San Diego Region
habitat, and floodplains, as well as
policies such as parking requirements, setbacks, and existing buildings and infrastructure, that
influence future development and redevelopment potential.
Initial economic projections show strong growth in real per capita income and stable, diversified
employment growth over the next four decades. While there is sufficient capacity for job growth,
continued economic development in the region is contingent upon providing opportunities to
house San Diego's future labor force, as indicated in the SANDAG Regional Economic Prosperity
Strategy.
Important Considerations for the 2050 Forecast
As a result of Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg, 2008), the SANDAG forecast shall "identify areas within the
region sufficient to house all the population of the region...over the course of the planning period
of the regional transportation plan."2 Further, in order to avoid additional state review during the
RHNA process, the population forecart also must be "within a range of 3 percent of the total
regional population forecast...over the same time period by the [California] Department of
Finance."3 At this point, the SANDAG 2050 projection of 4.4 million residents falls within 3 percent
of the Department of Finance projection (4.5 million).
Currently adopted general plans and certain draft updates allow capacity to provide housing
opportunities for about 85 percent of the housing demand projected for the region. Recognizing
that many of the region's general plans will be updated at least once between now and 2050,
SANDAG staff has been working with each jurisdiction through the TWG since October 2008 to
identify opportunities to accommodate the 70,000 housing units shortfall in the last 10 to 15 years
of the forecast.
' California Senate Bill 375, section 4 (b)(2)(B)(ii). Approved by California Governor September 30, 2008.
' California Senate Bill 375, Section 8 (b). Approved by California Governor September 30, 2008.
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Recommendations from the TWG and the SANDAG Regional Planning Committee,
Transportation Committee, and Board of Directors
To ensure local input, SANDAG staff has been working with local planning directors, through the
TWG, to identify a series of land use scenarios that could bridge the gap between the horizon year
of local general plans and the 2050 forecast year. Twelve scenarios and their variants were
generated through a series of workshops and meetings with the TWG. The TWG reviewed each
scenario in detail with a focus on selecting alternatives that were reasonable based on knowledge
of local plans and market conditions, as well as alternatives that align with regional goals described
in approved plans such as the RCP and RTP. Based on those objectives, at its May meeting, the TWG
recommended that SANDAG staff continue to examine the following land use scenarios:
• Maximum general plan development/redevelopment regionwide
• Density increases in transit investment areas
• Redevelopment near high-frequency transit stations
• Plan updates in Smart Growth Opportunity Areas (SGOAs)
• inclusion of draft plans in the forecast, at jurisdiction's discretion
• Jurisdiction-specific options, not listed above
These alternatives also were presented to the SANDAG Regional Planning and Transportation
Committees. Both groups recommended that these alternatives be studied further.
Recognizing that one size does not fit all jurisdictions in our diverse region, the SANDAG Board of
Directors directed SANDAG staff to work with each jurisdiction to determine which (if any) of the
above options provides a suitable 2050 land use scenario for that jurisdiction.
Next Steps
To have the best chance of meeting the schedule set for completing the RTP, the regional growth
forecast process must move ahead. To help facilitate the forecast process, the SANDAG Board of
Directors has directed SANDAG staff to work with each jurisdiction to develop the 2050 growth
forecast. Each jurisdiction will have the option to consider one of the proposed 2050 scenarios
(listed above) or to provide a substitute scenario.
Upon collecting information from each jurisdiction, SANDAG staff proposes to produce a draft
subregional forecast in late 2009 that would be shared with each jurisdiction far comment and
review. The final forecast is expected to be presented to the SANDAG Board of Directors in early
2010 for use in the 2050 RTP.
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