HomeMy WebLinkAboutPlanning Comm Reports/1993/02/10 (6)
February 10, 1993
TO:
Planning Commission
Bob Leiter, Director of Planning ,;/f~
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Development Forecast and Development Monitoring Relative to Transportation
Phasing and other Growth Management Considerations
The Planning Department annually prepares a short-range (12 to 18 month) and mid-range (5-7
year) residential development forecast for Chula Vista, which is used in the preparation of the
Growth Management Oversight Commission's annual report on compliance with the City's
threshold standards. Attached for your information is the most recent forecast report, which is
currently under review by the GMOC. As described in the report, the Planning Department has
worked with SANDAG to develop a revised forecasting methodology for the mid-range forecast,
which is tied to SANDAG's long-range (year 2015) growth forecasts for the San Diego Region.
The results of the mid-range forecast indicate that Chula Vista will experience an average annual
growth rate of 1,179 to 1,388 dwelling units per year over the next seven years. This forecast
is consistent with the assumptions in the HNTB Interim SR-125 Financing Plan study, which
assumed an average of 1,300 dwelling units per year over the study period. Given these growth
rate assumptions, the study indicates that the City would need to have an interim SR-125 facility
completed within approximately 7 years, based on the remaining capacity in the roadway system,
and certain assumptions regarding non-residential growth.
As noted above, the City already closely monitors development activity on an annual basis
through its growth management program. However, because of the long lead times needed for
the planning and financing of major infrastructure such as the interim SR-125 facility, it will
become increasingly important to evaluate the phasing of new development and the timing of
major capital improvement projects to make sure that facilities will be available when needed.
In light of this, staff ofthe Planning Department, Public Works Department, and City Manager's
office have concluded that, in conjunction with action on an Interim SR-125 Financing Plan, City
staff should expand its monitoring activities related to development phasing and capital
improvement programming to include the following:
1) In addition to the annual mid-range forecast, the Planning Department will also prepare
and maintain a map and data base identifying all final maps which have been recorded.
Final map recordation represents a major financial commitment on the part of a
developer, and is a better indicator of short-term development potential than tentative
map approvals.
Planning Commission
-2-
February 10, 1993
2) Future updates of the Eastern Chula Vista Transportation Phasing Plan will evaluate all
projects with recorded final maps, as listed in Item #1 above, and will identify all
Circulation Element roadway improvements needed to support this level of development,
along with financing requirements.
3) As future requests for final map recordation are received, they will be evaluated to
determine what additional roadway improvement needs they will generate, in relation to
the current Transportation Phasing Plan, and the developer will be required to
demonstrate that such additional improvements can be financed and constructed prior to
their need.
4) Similar development monitoring and evaluation of facility needs will occur for other
public facilities covered in the City's Growth Management Program and applicable Public
Facility Financing Plan, to ensure that all other public facility needs are taken into
account prior to final map recordation.
The steps outlined above are consistent with the City's adopted Growth Management Program,
and are in addition to monitoring and evaluation requirements that are already in effect. These
additional measures are intended to ensure that the City, other service providers (e.g., school
districts and water districts) and developers become aware at the earliest possible time of any
potential facility needs that will be required in order to maintain adopted threshold standards.
We would periodically evaluate the effectiveness of this approach, and if necessary, suggest
other monitoring or development phasing controls as warranted.
Staff intends to forward these recommendations to the City Council in conjunction with the
HNTB Interim SR-125 Financing Plan in March, and would appreciate any comments from the
Planning Commission regarding this approach.
(F3\dcvrnon.mem)