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Home My WebLink AboutPlanning Comm Reports/1993/02/17 (5) CITY OF CHULA VISTA CALIFORNIA EASTERN AREA DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEES FOR STREETS 1993 REVISION CITY COUNCIL Tim Nader Mayor Robert P. Fox Shirley Horton Leonard M. Moore Jerry R. Rindone CITY STAFF John D. Goss John P. Lippitt Clifford Swanson City Manager Director of Public Works Deputy Public Works Director/ City Engineer January 19, 1993 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Title ~ 1 Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1 2 Revised Development Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 3 3 Revised Project Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 9 4 Development Impact Fee Methodology ................... 16 5 Advance Construction of Development Impact Fee Projects ..... 20 6 Project Descriptions and Cost Estimates .................. 22 LIST OF TABLES 1 Revised DIF Benefit Area land Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5 2 Capital Improvement Project Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3 Completed DIF Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4 Credits Summary ..................................14 5 Development Impact Fee Calculation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 LIST OF MAPS 1 Benefit land Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8 2 Street Project locations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 APPENDIX 1 Ordinance No's. 2251, 2289, 2349, and 2431 LDT,S8,IBUXTONffRANSDIF,NAR 020493 SECTION 1 BACKGROUND This report represents the 1993 review of the Development Impact Fee for Streets program, and where appropriate, makes adjustments to the development impact fee based upon completed street construction, revised development projections and revised project cost estimates. In February 1986, the Chula Vista City Council adopted a schedule of development impact fees (DIF) for the Eastlake I Development. These fees were to ensure that Eastlake paid its fair share of the cost of specific street improvements including a four lane interim facility in the State Route 125 (SR-125) corridor. Also included in the development impact fee was the cost of constructing a fire station and a community park in Eastlake I. City staff recommended to the Council that a development impact fee ordinance be prepared to provide for the financing of transportation improvements by ID! the developments that would benefit from the improvements. In January 1987, the Council authorized the preparation of a development impact fee program for the financing of street improvements in the area east of Interstate 805. In December 1987, a report entitled the Interim Eastern Area Deve/opment Impact Fees for Streets was completed. The "area of benefit" included all the undeveloped lands that benefitted from the proposed transportation improvements, within the City of Chula Vista and County of San Diego, east of Interstate 805. Because the Eastern Territories General Plan Update was in progress, the Council adopted an Interim Eastern Area development Impact Fee (DIF) in January 1988 by Ordinance Number 2251. The fee was set at $2,101 per equivalent dwelling unit (EDU). The Eastern Territories General Plan Amendment was later completed and adopted. On August 8, 1991, the City Council authorized the preparation of the "Interim SR- 125 Facility Feasibility Study." The purpose of this study was to identify an interim SR-125 facility that will meet the transportation needs of the region until a permanent facility (freeway) could be constructed. The report recommends the establishment of a new fee (separate from the existing Transportation DIF) to specifically finance the construction of the interim SR-125 and related facilities. Consequently, Projects 1 and 2 (Table 2), dealing with the SR-125 construction, have been excluded from the Eastern Area Transportation DIF program and are now included in the new SR-125 DIF program. Additionally, Projects 13, 24, and 37 are also included in the recommended Interim SR-125 Facility. These projects are to be jointly financed by the Eastern Area Transportation DIF and the SR-125 DIF. ' LDT :SB/BUXTON/TRANSDlF .NAR -1- 020893 Since its inception, the Transportation DIF has been updated twice, as follows: ~ December 12, 1989 December 11, 1990 Ordinance Number 2349 2431 ~ $2,850/EDU $3,060/EDU This report recommends a change in the fee to $3,075 per EDU. LOT ,SB/BUXTON/TRANSOIF .NAR -2- 020893 SECTION 2 REVISED DEVELOPMENT FORECAST One of the primary assumptions in the formulation of a development impact fee is that the need for additional public facilities is generated by new development and the cost of the facilities should be paid by the benefitting development. The public facilities which are the subject of this impact fee are identified in Table 2 and on Map 2. They include thirty nine improvement projects. The facilities included in the program are classified as four lane major and larger. Projects 13, 24, and 37 of Table 2 are to be jointly funded by both the Eastern Area Transportation DIF and the SR-125 fee program. Only the portion that is not part of the proposed SR-125 interim loop roadway system is included in this report. Pursuant to Ordinance No. 2251, developers have requested to the City Council approval to construct several DIF facilities. Table 3 presents a description of the thirteen projects already completed for a grand total of $38,608,626. The .. Area of Benefit" is the area served or benefitted by the proposed improvements. Once constructed, the improvements will serve the area by providing a system of roads for residents, employees, and customers. New and future development in the City and County are generally described in adopted or proposed specific plans. However, there are large areas of land still vacant or used for agriculture. Map 1 identifies the undeveloped major land areas located in both the City and County. The proposed street projects provide routes to the region freeway system for the developing portions of Chula Vista. It is therefore logical to use Interstate 805 as the western boundary, since only a limited percentage of vehicle trips from the benefit area are anticipated to travel west of this freeway. The northern boundary has been established at Bonita Road, since the area to the north is essentially developed, but the developing area to the south will still use Bonita. The only exception is the property known as Bonita Gateway located at the northeast quadrant of Bonita Road and 1-805. This property will be benefitted from the proposed DIF improvements and, therefore, is included in the program. The eastern boundary has been set at the City's Sphere of Influence, since this entire area is expected to be oriented toward Chula Vista and will use the project area streets. The area to the east of the sphere line will be oriented toward the City of San Diego's Otay Mesa community. The southern boundary has been established along the proposed extension of East Orange Avenue. Table 1 lists the revised DIF land use forecast. Since the last revision in November 1990, the land use categories have changed as summarized below from Table 1. LDT :S8/8UXTONITRANSDIF .NAR -3- 020893 LAND USE SUMMARY Land Use Current Number Revised Number Single Family DU Detached 17,135 16,857 Single Family DU Attached 6,094 7.371 Multi-Family DU 1.915 3.725 Commercial Acres 143.0 263.8 Industrial Acres 352.3 319.6 Religious Institution Acres 10.8 16.8 Golf Course Acres 156.8 156.8 LDT,SB/BUXTONITRANSDIF.NAR -4. 020893 ('oj en en ~ ~ > :J .., .... 0 '" ro Q) '" ~ ::::> UJ "tj ....J c: ID ro ~ ....J I- ro Q) ~ ~ ... ;;: Q) C Q) ID LL 0 "tj Q) '" '> Q) a: "..N CD 0 0' 0 0 0 CD N 0 M CD CD 0 0 CD g, 0) - N . CD CD M .... CD N "!. N CD .... 0) CD ":. 0) ",:J ' N M -0- - - - ~W,..:. ~ CD 0) . 0 M . . ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. CD . N CD 0 CD . .... CD "0 "c' 0) - - .- :J . CD ~ 0 "'0 CD M M o..w .- - M M CD M CD 0) . 0 M 0 0) CD M CD CD 0 ~ CD .. 0 ..' - . N CD 0 CD .... CD 0) CD M .... CD N -:J "!. . CD ~ CD "!. ":. 0) CD .... 0 0) 00 CD t-W It) - It) CD - - .. - It) 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 CD 0 0 .. 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E:! ~~ ., C .....(0("') ~e("''''''' e(u.~. q r.n~ N e( a.. .....Na> r.no........~ Q) u. "i "1 ~CJ)_ .- -.: '" .. w ., '" '" o 0. o ~ 0. '" ., ::> U .E ~ c: '" '" c: E "'., !! c: <:1'" ~ E ~e( toe( ::>0.. ur.n ~ M ~ .: Q - z < ~ t: z o ~ x ~ E M - ~ 9 In ND: AREA 0.. IENE..IT CITY 10UNDA"Y DI... ST"EET COUNTY "REA MAP ARE A t AREAl MAP I SECTION 3 REVISED PROJECT COST ESTIMATES Ordinance No. 2251, as revised, allows for an annual adjustment to the fees to reflect changes in the Engineering - News Record Construction Cost Index. The index experienced an increase of 3.89% for the period of November 1990 to June 1992. In addition, several projects currently under construction were adjusted to more accurately reflect the actual cost of work completed and more refined estimates for remaining work. These projects were not adjusted by the ENR Index. Table 2 presents the projects and costs being funded by the fee. A complete description, cost breakdown and location map are included in Section 6. Table 2 also identifies $6,319,885 as revenue available for DIF project construction. The revised project cost total has been reduced by this amount. This amount includes $1,205,044, which is the total of the fees to be paid in accordance with the Rancho del Rey Power Center Development Agreement. Ordinance No. 2251 states that a developer may request authorization from the City to construct DIF facilities. In case the total construction cost amounts to more than the total fees which will be required for the development, the owner is entitled to receive DIF credits. This DIF credit could be used to satisfy the fee obligations for any other development. Table 4 presents remaining credits for facilities constructed by developers for a total of $7,563,883. This amount has been added to the revised project cost (Table 2) to obtain the total project cost to be collected through the Transportation DIF. The total cost of the improvements to be funded by the fee is $87,420,000. LDT ,S6/BUXTONITRANSDIF ,NAR -9- 020693 TABLE 2 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS COST ESTIMATE SUMMARY (AS OF JULY 1, 1992) No, DIF Street Location Revised Remarks Cost 1 State Route 125 North San Miguel to Telegraph Canyon Road $0 To SR-125 DIF/CFD . 2 State Route 125 South Telegraph Canyon Road to East Orange 0 To SR-1 25 DIF/CFD Avenue 3 Telegraph Canyon Road Paseo Del Rey to East of Paseo ladera 3.452,000 Widening to 6-lane prime 3a Telegraph Canyon Road 1-805 Interchange Phase II 1,814,000 Interchange Improvements (Phase IIA is under construction) 4 Telegraph Canyon Road Phase I Rutgers to Eastlake Boundary 0 Project Completed 5 Telegraph Canyon Road Phase II Paseo ladera to Apache Drive 0 Project Completed 6 Telegraph Canyon Road Phase III Apache Drive to Rutgers Road 1,677 ,000 6-lane major (under construction) 7 East "H" Street 1-805 Interchange Modifications 3,780,000 Interchange Improvements (Phase I completed) 8 East "H" Street Eastlake Drive to SR- 125 0 Project Completed 9 Otay Lakes Road Camino del Cerro Grande to Ridgeback 0 Project Completed Road 10 Otay lakes Road Telegraph Canyon Road to East Orange 4,574,000 Construction as 6-lane prime Avenue (only Phase I - 4 lanes included) 11 Bonita Road Otay lakes Road to Central Avenue 370,000 Widening to 4-lane major 12 Bonita Road Central Avenue to San Miguel Road 792,000 Widening to 4-lane major 13 San Miguel Road Bonita Road to SR- 125 1,574,500 Second Part of SR-125 DIF/CFD 14 East "H" Street SR- 125 to Mt, Miguel Road 0 Project completed 15 Proctor Valley Road Mt. Miguel Road to Hunte Parkway 5,377,000 Construction as 6-lane prime (East "H" Street) 16 East Orange Avenue Oleander to Sunbow Eastern Boundary 6,266,000 Construction as 6-lane prime 17 East Palomar Street Oleander to Sunbow Eastern Boundary 6,782,000 Construction as 4-lane major LOT ,SB/BUXTONITRANSDIF ,NAR -10- 020893 TABLE 2 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS COST ESTIMATE SUMMARY (AS OF JULY 1,1992) No. DIF Street Location Revised Remarks Cost 18 Telegraph Canyon Road Phase IV Eastlake I Eastern Boundary 0 Project Completed to Hunte Parkway 19 Eastlake Parkway Telegraph Canyon Road to Eastlake 0 Project Completed High School Southern Boundary 20 Hunte Parkway Proctor Valley Road to Telegraph 4,395,000 Construction as 4-lane major Canyon Road 21 Hunte Parkway Telegraph Canyon Road to Club House 0 Project Completed Drive 21a Hunte Parkway Club House Drive to East Orange 1,250,000 Construction as 4-lane major Avenue 22 East Orange Avenue Eastlake Parkway to Hunte Parkway 6,356,000 Construction as 6-lane prime 23 Paseo Ranchero Telegraph Canyon Road to East Orange 3,388,000 Construction as 6-lane prime Avenue (only Phase I - 4 lanes included) 24 East Orange Avenue Eastern Sunbow Boundary to Eastlake 7,272,000 Second Part of SR- 125 DIF/CFD Parkway 25 East Orange Avenue 1-805 Interchange Modifications 4,064,000 Interchange Improvements 26 East Palomar Street Eastern Sunbow Boundary to Paseo 3,120,000 Construction as 4-lane major Ranchero 27 East Palomar Street 1-805 Interchange 2,673,000 Interchange Improvements 28 Telegraph Canyon Road Hunte Parkway to Wueste Road 3,114,000 Construction as 4-lane major 29 East Orange Avenue Hunte Parkway to Olympic Training 5,104,000 Construction as 4-lane major Center 30 Telegraph Canyon Road SR- 125 to Eastlake Parkway 1,493,900 Widening to 8-lane prime 31 Eastlake Parkway Fenton Street to Telegraph Canyon 980,400 Widening to 6-lane major Road 32 East" H" Street 1-805 to Hidden Vista Drive 901,000 Widening to 8 lanes 33 Bonita Road Otay lakes Road Intersection 105,000 Intersection Improvements 34 Otay Lakes Road Elmhurst Drive Intersection 70,000 Intersection Improvements 35 East "W Street Otay lakes Road Intersection 221,000 Intersection Improvements 36 Traffic Signal 138,000 Interconnection lDT :SB/BUXTON/TRANSDIF .NAR -11- 020893 TABLE 2 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS COST ESTIMATE SUMMARY (AS OF JULY 1, 1992) No. DIF Street location Revised Remarks Cost 37 Eastlake Parkway Eastlake High School Southern 887,500 Second Part of SR- 125 DIF/CFD Boundary to East Orange Avenue 38 East "H" Street Paseo Del Rey to Avila Way 682,000 Street Widening 39 Bonita Road 1-805 to Plaza Bonita Road 188,000 Street Widening SUBTOTAL $82,861,300 A DIF program support 4 % of total project cost 3,314,452 Available Revenue less funds available for DIF (S,319,8851 construction Ramaining Credits See Table 4 7,563,883 GRAND TOTAL $87,419,750 SAY 87,420,000 lDT :SB/BUXTONfTRANSDIF .NAR -12- 020893 TABLE 3 COMPLETED DIF PROJECTS (AS OF JULY 1,1992) No. DIF Street Location Cost 1 East 0 H 0 Street Through Rancho Del Rey $4,372,696 2 Otay Lakes Road Intersection with East ow Street 328,921 3 Telegraph Canyon Road Paseo del Rey to East of Paseo 350,037 Ladera (south side) 4 Telegraph Canyon Road 1-805 Interchange/Phase I 174,332 5 Otay Lakes Road Camino del Cerro Grande to 6,227,169 Ridgeback Road 6 Central A venue 80nita Road to Corral Canyon 190,000 7 Telegraph Canyon Road Phase I - Rutgers Road to Eastlake 6,671,052 Boundary 8 Telegraph Canyon Road Phase II - Paseo Ladera to Apache 11,118,765 Drive 9 East 0 H 0 Street Phase I - 1-805 Modifications 577,155 10 Eastlake Parkway Telegraph Canyon Road to 1,883,636 Southern High School Boundary 11 Hunte Parkway Telegraph Canyon Road to Club 1,251,299 House Drive 12 East 0 W Street Eastlake Drive to SR-125 and 2,075,047 SR.125 to Mt. Miguel Road 13 Telegraph Canyon Road Eastlake Boundary to Hunte 3,388,518 Parkway GRAND TOTAL COMPLETED $38,608,626 Note: .. = Under revision . . LDT,SBIBUXTONITRANSDIF ,NAR -13- 020893 TABLE 4 CREDITS SUMMARY (AS OF JULY 1, 1992) Project location Total Cost Fees Paid Credits Used Credits Remarks Remaining Telegraph Canyon Rutgers Road to $6,671,502 $6,671.502 $0 $0 Fees Paid Through Road (Phase I) Eastlake Boundary Assessment District No. 88-1 OtaV Lakes Road Camino del Cerro 6,227,169 6,227,169 0 0 Fees Paid Through Grande to Ridgeback Assessment District No. Road 88-2 Telegraph Canyon Puseo laders to 11,118,764" 5,863,573 2,360,780 2,894,402 Fees Paid Through Ro.d (Ph.s. II) Apache Drive Assessment District No. 9H East "H" Street 1-805 Interchange 577,155 0 t 22,400 454,755 Modifications East "H" Street Through Rancho Del 4,372.696 4,361,046 0 11,650 Fees Paid Through Rsy Assessment District No. 87-1 East "H" Street Eastlake Dr. to SR- 2,075,047" 1,381,896 0 693,151 Fees Paid Through 125 and SR-125 to Assessment District No. Mt. Miguel Road 90-1 State Route 125 Within Salt Creek I 2,622,740" 0 0 2,622.470 Eastlake Parkway Telegraph Canyon 1,B83,636 1,729,969 0 153,667 Fees Paid Through Rd. to Southern Assessment District No. Eastlake High School 90-3 Boundary Hunte Parkway Telegraph Canyon 1,251,299 1,233,158 0 18,141 Fees Paid Through Rd. to Club House Assessment District No. Drive 90-3 Telegraph Canyon Eastlake Easterly 3,388,518 2,793,069 0 595,449 Fees Paid Through Road Boundary to Hunte Assessment District No. Pkwy. 90-3 East "H" Street Otay lakes Road 120,198 0 0 120,198 Intersection (Right-of- way at Kelton Parcel APN# 642-020- 17) TOTALS $40,308,454 $30,261,382 $2,483,189 $7,563.883 Note: .. = Under revision LOT :SB/BUXTON/TRANSDIF .NAR -14- 020893 . @ @~ @* @ OF BENEFIT TREET I AY INTERCHANGE CT NUMBER OCA TION MAP 2 SECTION 4 DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEE METHODOLOGY One of the most common tools used to equate benefit impact fees among the different land uses and densities is the "Equivalent Dwelling Unit" or EDU. The single-family detached dwelling is the base for the assignment of EDU's. The difference in the ratio between the land uses and densities is related to benefit or amount of use that each particular land use receives from a specific public facility category. For example, there is a clear relationship between the generation of traffic trips based on the land use and density of a specific parcel and the use of transportation facilities. In the report "San Diego Traffic Generators," published by SANDAG, the traffic trips generated by various classes of use are detailed. The report indicates that there are an average of 10 daily trips from a single-family detached dwelling unit, 8 trips from an attached unit, and 6 trips from a multi-family structure. Traffic generation rates for industrial land uses vary. Business parks average 200 trips per acre. Although 300 ADT was used in the Interim DIF, further traffic reports, including the "Transportation Analysis" for Rancho Del Rey, SPA 1, proved a more accurate figure to be 200 ADT for the "H" Street Industrial Employment Park. This figure, which conforms to SANDAG's 200 ADT's for Business Parks is used here for transportation EDU's. The Convention Center and Quasi Public uses listed are for the Olympic Training Center. The Convention Center ADT's are from SANDAG trip generation factors and are consistent with the hotel, convention facilities, retail, and office uses. The Olympic Training Center is a "Quasi public" facility which renders an essentially public service but will be privately owned and controlled. The athletic facilities and housing for 1,000 athletes are a unique situation which is not specifically listed as a land use for trip generation factors. There will be no major events to draw the public and the young people coming to train will mostly remain in the general area during their stay. A study produced by Urban Systems Associates for Eastlake III showed that based on the Olympic Training plan, the entire OTC acreage will generate 5,000 ADT. Therefore, a total of 500 EDU will be counted for this development. A "religious institution" is primarily a place of religious assembly. It may have associated uses such as educational or counseling services. Four EDU's per acre is used. The "Kaiser Medical Center" (30.6 acres) has been assigned a total of 1,989 EDU's. This figure is based on a traffic generation rate of 650 trips/acre pursuant to the qevelopment Agreement approved by the City Council on June 30, 1992. LDT ,SBIBUXTONITRANSDIF ,NAR -16- 020B93 Transportation Equivalent Dwelling Units Single Family Detached 1 .00 EDU/DU Single Family Attached 0.80 EDU/DU Multi-Family 0.60 EDU/DU Commercial/Acre 40.00 EDU/Acre Industrial! Acre 20.00 EDU/Acre Religious Institution 4.00 EDU/Acre OTC 3.33 EDU/Acre Adjacent to OTC 35.00 EDU/Acre Golf Course 0.80 EDU/Acre Medical Center 65 EDU/Acre Consideration in this report has been given to the "passerby" trip phenomenon. Passerby trips (also called undiverted linked trips) are trips in which a stop at a retail commercial facility is one part of a linked trip to or from home or work. The weekday trip generation rates for the types of commercial/convenience stores found in the area with consideration for linked trips would average 400 trips/acre. The circulation system must be viewed as a whole. Breakdowns in any part of the system will have a deleterious impact on other parts of the system. The analogy of a water system is sometimes used where constrictions or breaks in any part of the system will have significant impacts on the whole system. The scope of the improvements and the area of benefit are determined by an analysis of impacts on the total circulation system east of Interstate 805 for various increments of cumulative development within the total area of benefit. Therefore, the cost of all the required improvements has been spread equally to all new development regardless of the location of the improvement in relation to the development. The improvements to be provided by the development impact fee are included in the Transportation Phasing Plan. They are consistent with the general plan and specific plans that have been adopted by the City Council. The fee shall be collected as a condition of building permit issuance. The fee is subject to an annual adjustment based on the Engineering News Record (ENR) Construction Index each fiscal year. Fees may also be adjusted based on updated information regarding land use or the type, size, location, or cost of proposed facilities. LDT:SB/BUXTONITRANSDIF ,NAR -17- 020893 All fees collected shall be deposited in an interest accruing fund and shall be expended only with the approval of the City Council for DIF projects listed in this report. LDT ,SB/BUXTONITRANSDIF.NAR -18- 020893 Table 5 Development Impact Fee Calculation Per Eauivalent Dwelling Unit Total Cost of ImDrovements = Total EDU's $87420.000 28,431 EDU's = $3,074.81/EDU Use: $3,075/EDU 1992 Revised Eastern Area DeveloDment ImDact Fees for Streets Category Existing Fee 1992 Revised Fee Single Family Detached $3,060/DU 3,075/DU Single Family Attached 2,448/DU 2,460/DU Multi-Family 1,836/DU 1,845/DU Commercial/Acre 122,400/AC 123,OOO/AC Industrial/Acre 61,200/AC 61,500/AC Religious Institution 11,400/AC 12,300/AC OTC 10,190/AC N/A Golf Course 2,448/AC 2,460/AC Medical Center -- 199,875/AC lOT :SB/BUXTONfTRANSDIF .NAR -19- 020893 SECTION 5 ADVANCE CONSTRUCTION OF DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEE PROJECTS An owner/developer may request authorization from the City to construct one or more of the projects which are included in the list of facilities with development impact fee charges. The owner/developer proposing to construct a development impact fee project, shall apply for approval of the City Council. The application shall contain at least the following information and requirements: AI Detailed description of the project with a preliminary cost estimate. B) Requires of owner/developer: . prepare plans and specifications for approval by the City; . secure and dedicate any right-of-way required for the project; . secure all required permits, environmental clearances necessary for construction of the project; . provide performance bonds; . pay all City fees and costs. C) The owner/developer shall advance all necessary funds to construct the project. The City will not be responsible for any construction costs. D) The owner/developer shall secure at least three (3) Qualified bids for the construction. Any extra work or charges during construction shall be justified and documented. E) When all work has been completed to the satisfaction of the City, the owner/ developer shall submit verification to the City of payments made for the construction. The City Manager shall make the final determination on expenditures eligible for credit or cash reimbursement. F) The City shall inspect all construction and verify quantities, in accordance with the City and State Code to ensure that the final improvement complies with all applicable standards and is constructed to the satisfaction of the City Engineer. G) The owner/developer will receive a credit against the required development impact fees during the issuance of building permits for the proposed devel- opment. If the total construction costs amounts to more than the total required development impact fees, the owner/developer will be paid the excess cash Vl!hen funds are available as determined by the City Manager. LDT,SB/BUXTONITRANSDIF ,NAR -20- 020893 Note: The transportation phasing plan provides a prioritization and the timing of need with respect to cumulative development for each of the DIF projects. This information together with the Development Impact Fee Report is considered in approving owner/ developer construction and the timing of credit or cash disburse- ments. LDT :SB/BUXTON/TRANSDIF .NAR -21- 020893 CITY OF CHULA VISTA PLANNING DEPARTMENT ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST JANUARY 1993 Proqram Overview In accordance with the City's Growth Management Program the Planning Department is pleased to release the annual 12- to 18-month and 5- to 7-year residential development forecasts and accompanying project location map. Together, this information addresses those projects likely to reach the construction and/or completion phase within the respective forecast time frames beginning July 1992. The information, as in the past, is separated according to the two water districts, Sweetwater Authority and Otay Municipal, for the purpose of comparison to Otay's Water Allocation Program. This forecast is intended to assist the city and other key agencies, such as school and water districts, in formulating and coordinating short- and long-range capital improvement and facility financing plans. An evaluation by these agencies as to their ability to accommodate the forecasted growth will be forwarded to the Growth Management oversight commission (GMOC) for their use in determining compliance with each of the City's adopted threshold standards (i.e., traffic, sewer, schools, etc.). The City is now in its fourth year of preparing its residential development forecasts and is pleased to report on a revised mid- range (5-7 year) forecasting methodology endorsed by SANDAG staff and consistent with the draft Series 8 regional forecast model. The revised forecast was developed jointly by staff from the Planning Department and SANDAG. Ultimately the Department's goal is to develop a forecasting model which the city can use on an ongoing basis. While the application and results of this forecast will be described in greater detail later in the report, it should be noted that the revised approach also incorporates a "high-low" forecast range similar to that used in the 12-18 month forecast. 12- to 18-Month Forecast In order to provide the most accurate forecast reasonably possible, staff conducted a five-part research process which included: 1) the preparation and analysis of a current project status sheet showing where different proposals are in the development approval process; 2) a survey of individual developer's expected construction schedules; 3) a comparative analysis of the otay Water District Allocation Program, as it currently applies to the eastern territories; 4) a cross-checking of the above information as to the logical timing of development; and 5) a review of past forecast performance, economic trends and historic development activity. C.V. Forecast -2- January 19, 1993 In response to the ongoing recession and current economic climate, two sets of forecast figures consisting of a range with a high end and low end are included in this forecast. The high end forecast, as mentioned earlier and indicated in Figures 1A and 1B, reflects each developer's anticipated construction schedules and includes a slight downward adjustment in order to maintain consistency with the mid-range forecast. As the data shows, 1.264 dwelling units are expected to be permitted for construction and 1.629 dwelling units are expected to reach occupancy over the next 18 months. The low end forecast is based on an 24-month trend analysis of prior construction activity (calendar years 1991 and 1992). This time frame was chosen as it best represents an issuance/occupancy estimate utilizing full, past and present calendar year permit cycles. As such, the low end forecast projects 1.000 permit issuances and 1.050 housing finals over the same period. No project specific forecast tables were prepared for the low end estimate. Taken together, the forecast range reflects the uncertainty in the timing of development and in the amount of construction activity that may take place. The Planning Department recommends that threshold compliance evaluations be conducted against the high end forecast figures, as they represent a maximum projected impact to public facilities. However, recognition should also be given to the low end range of the forecast, as actual construction activity during the first six months of this forecast reflects construction activity levels lower than normal. It should be noted that local economists are predicting a modest increase in housing unit authorizations on a Countywide basis during 1993, as compared to 1992 levels. Therefore, the final result for Chula vista will most likely fall somewhat above the low end range, if these forecasts are accurate. Application of the project status sheet (see Figures 2A and 2B) is based on the assumption that a project shown in the development pipeline will reach construction and/or completion within the 12-18 month time frame. Under normal city processing time frames, those projects with units that have not progressed to the Tentative Map level of approval are not expected to reach the construction phase during the 18-month forecast time frame. As such, they are listed as informational data only and are more fully considered in the City's mid-range 5-7 year forecast. Included with the 12- to 18-month residential forecast is a current listing of commercial and industr.ial projects and their status relative to the development approval process (see Figure 3). A 12- month analysis of non-residential construction activity indicates that approximately 433,000 square feet of commercial, industrial and office construction occurred during the period July 1991 C.V. Forecast -3- January 19, 1993 through June 1992. For FY 1990-91, this figure was approximately 377,000 square feet. For informational purposes, a City of Chula Vista historic housing and population chart has been included (see Figure 4). 1991-1992 Forecast Comparison As a means of illustrating external influences on forecast accuracy, including construction lending, housing demand and the continuing effects of a prolonged recession, the following provides an overview and analysis of actual residential construction activity relative to the first twelve months of the previously submitted forecast. 12 MONTH FORECAST COMPARISON JULY 1991 to JUNE 1992 (dwelling units) Otay Issue Final Sweetwater Issue Final City Total Issue Final Forecast Total Activity Difference % Difference 1106 589 517 46 1035 536 499 48 227 137 90 40 226 74 152 67 1333 726 607 45 1261 610 651 51 As the table above shows, actual permit issuances and occupancy levels were about half of what the high end forecast projected for this period. An analysis of the drought and the limiting of building permits as a result of the Otay Water District Allocation Program does not appear to have been a factor in the amount of development that actually took place, as each developer participating in the program received 100% of his requested allocation during this period. Mid-Ranqe 5- to 7-Year Development Forecast As mentioned earlier, a new mid-range forecasting methodology, consistent with the SANDAG draft Series 8 forecast model, has been developed for use in this forecast. The decision to modify the City's mid-range forecast methodology is due to the City's desire to further improve its forecasting methodology consistent with the regional and subregional models, and to allow for easier and more consistent updates of these forecasts. In doing so, the same assumptions utilized in the Series 8 forecast for projecting future growth and development in the region are applied locally to the City's forecast. These assumptions include, but are not limited to, population trends, economic trends, and infrastructure needs. C.V. Forecast -4- January 19, 1993 Related to infrastructure needs, the regional model also considers the development potential of all lands with remaining development capacity. Because of this, local planning efforts, such as those r~lated to public facility planning, will benefit from this forecast being linked to the regional forecast, as it provides the City the ability to consider the impact of all projects within and adjacent to its current planning area. As such, the mid-range forecast may be used to demonstrate compliance with the SR-125 facility phasing and financing plan. Therefore, the results of this revised approach will more accurately enable the City to anticipate public facility needs so that the preplanning necessary for such development can be arranged by the development community in concert with the policies of the City and other affected government agencies. Two sets of forecast figures consisting of a range with a high end and a low end are included in this forecast. Both forecasts are based on the same assumption that a city generated "capture rate" can be effectively used to predict the amount of future growth when applied to SANDAG' s annualized Series 8 forecast. The term "capture rate" is best defined as a jurisdiction's annual building activity represented as a percentage of the region's total building acti vi ty in the same year. When averaged over a number of years in which both high and low growth cycles have occurred, a City's long- term or historical capture rate may be used as a general indicator to test the reasonableness of the rate selected. In conducting a 12-year, regional share analysis of actual construction activity (1980-1992), the Planning Department was able to determine its current and historical capture rates. The results of this analysis, as indicated in Figure 5, show the City's 1992 year-end capture rate at 5.31 percent of the region's total and its historic rate to be 5.39 percent. As a result of this analysis and discussions with SANDAG staff, it was determined that the low end range of the forecast should be based on an annual rate of growth equal to its historic capture rate (5.39%) when averaged over the forecast time frame (1992- 2000), beginning with its 1992 rate. Recognizing that additional development capacity may become available by 1995 due to the probable annexation of otay Ranch, the Planning Department and SANDAG developed a second forecast (the high end forecast) which considered Chula vista's series 8 sphere capacity relative to the region's capacity in 2015. In assuming that the total buildout capacity of the western parcel would be available by 2015, and adding this capacity to the city's sphere capacity, staff was able to determine the annual percent increase in the City's capture rate (+0.05%) to be applied to the low end forecast's rate of projected growth commencing in 1995. C.V. Forecast -5- January 19, 1993 As shown on Figure 5, a long-term growth rate ranging from approximately 1.179 to 1. 388 dwelling units per year may be expected to reach occupancy over the forecast's 7-year time frame. 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W .......J CO"...J II ""') II > 'IIi( W ewe .... ~ II W C ~ :: 'IIi( ~ c ~ ~ ~ ~ C ~ (,I) > ~ ~ ~ C ~ II c..II::CWCI)(,I) ~ .........::c_C WII II II.... 'IIi( ::c)(::c en .....!? ::Z:::Z::C"...J C G ~ ~ en > .... 0 = ~ ~ 3 = ~ ~ n ~ :: 1I~;:g;~,~~e~CIIJ:~~e~ I:::! 1/ II;I!;: ,~~ __ ~ eo:: U II 1/ ..~~U):zco;::coZ3eo::...,. ~""N~=" II II .... :E ~ ~ ~ N CO ~ ~ ~ ~ N W _ C It II II --------------------- m C'I W ~ :) ~ - LL '" ~ Z :0 ... Z < % ~ '" '" w ~ w > ~ o > z >- ~ .... < :0 Q ;: o z % U % :> '" ~ u w ~ o ~ .. w '" o % ~ '" w g .... u z "' W % ~ o u '" f w ~ o z JULY 1992 COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL PROJECt StAtUS LiStiNG (SQUARE FOOtAGE) =======1===========1=========================1======================1=============================1==========1 StAtuS I REF. NO. I PROJECt NAI4E I ADDRESS I OFFICE I REtAIL I IND I TOtAL I =======1===========1=========================1======================1=========1=========1=========1==========1 I DRC-89-48 I CHEVRON StA/MINI MART I 95 BONitA RD. I I 8174 I I B174 I I DRC-90-15 I JK ENtERPRIZES INC. I 865 Al4ENA CT. I I I 17000 I 17000 I UNDER I DRC-92-06 I SUNNY IMPORT BOOY PARtS I 3740 MAIN ST. I I 1 18000 1 1~UOO I CONST.I DRC-92-16 I GRATIANNE MEDICAL OFFIcel 360 "HI! 51. I 1388 I I I 1388 I I DRC-92-24 I SAVON & tHEAtER I 555 #2050 BROADWAY I I 82634 I I 82634 I I DRC-92-49 I GES WAREHOUSE I 491 IICII S1. I 14560 I I 92720 I 107280 I --------------------------------__________________________.__0________________________________________________ I DRC-91-24 I R&R INDUStRIAL BLDG. I 3855 MAIN St. I 11B56 11B56 I I DRC-91-68 1 LA MAR INDUSTRIAL BLDG. I 3730 MAIN St. 3220 1 13770 16990 I I DRC-91-n I MEDICAL OFFICE I 374 "H" ST. 2992 I 2992 I PLAN I DRC-92-03 I MANSOURS MARKEt I 1098 BROADWAY I 6000 6000 I CHECK I DRC-92-08 I STRUCtURE FORM I 1879-81 NIRVANA AVE. I 30363 30363 I I DRC-92-12 I WINLAND CAR PLAZA I 770 PLAZA CT. I 7525 7525 I I ORC-92-18 I ROLLERSKATE LAND I 630"LIIST. 1 24291 24291 I I tC/DR-134 I HMI MEDICAL OFFICE I 256 LANDIS AV. 13776 I 13776 I I I CAL StORES I 9n BROADWAY I 20991 20991 I -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I DRC-91-01 1 INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENt I 870 CANARIO Ct. I 12070 12070 I I DRC-91-46 I RIO SWtR. PLAZA CAR WASH I 1320 30T H St. I 12618 12618 I I ORC-9H6 I aJAY RIO ALMAGAMETED I I 870-76 OYAY RIO RD. I 352BO 35280 I I DRC-9H7 I OtAY RIO ALMAGAMEtED II I 853-65 OTAY RIO RD. I 61860 61860 I I ORC-91-58 I OTAY RIO ALMAGAMEtED III1 846-60 OTAY RIO RD. I 30300 30300 I I DRC-91 -74 I SWATH OCEAN, INC. I NEC "GII & TIDELANDS I 38000 38DDD I I DRC-91 -B2 I CUSHMAN PROPERTY I 517 SHINOHARA LN. I 11DDDO 110000 I I DRC-91-83 I CHULA VISTA IND. PARK I 80 N. 5TH AVE. I 152064 152064 I I DRC-92-19 I EASt LAKE VILLAGE I OLR & EAST LAKE VLLG. I 155582 155582 I 1 DRC-92-22 I ARCO AM/PM GAS STATION I 660-66 "LI! 51. I 2915 2915 I I DRC-92-30 I SECURITY 1St COMM. STRGE 1274 FOURtH AVE. I 25200 25200 I DESIGN DRC-92-33 PADILLA INDUStRIAL CNTR 3733 MAIN ST. I 26DOO 26000 I REVIEW ORC-92-42 BONITA RETAIL 3001 BONITA RD. I 10084 10084 I DRC-92-48 KAISER PERMANENTE 2301 FENTON ST. I 1350000 1350000 I DRC-92-51 MARQUEZ INDUSTRIAL 3517 MAIN ST. I 106000 106000 I DRC-92-52 V.J'S ASSOCIATES, INC 293 NAPLES ST. I 1600 1600 I DRC-92-57 FAIVRE ST. PARTNERSHIP 2605 FAIVRE St. I 7530 7530 DRC-92-59 DISCOUNT ORNMENTAL IRON 873 DOROTHY ST. I 3245 3245 ORC-92-60 WEST AUTO WRECKERS 2365 MAIN ST. I 11250 11250 ORC-93-05 1ST UNITEO METH. CHURCH E."H" ST./PASEO RANCH I 25780 25780 DRC-93-13 SOUTHWOOD PSYCHIATRIC 950 THIRD AVE. I 2490 2490 DRC-93-16 MESTLER CaNST. INC. 282 LANDIS AVE. I 2975 2975 DRC-93-17 SOUTHBAY GOLF CENtER 80 N. FIFTH AVE. I 2824 2824 DRC-93-18 ROR PRICE CLUB E."H" ST & TIERRA DELI 136800 136800 RDR HOME OEPOT E."H" ST & TIERRA DELI 125280 125280 I ROR K-MART E."HII ST & TIERRA DEL I 127000 127000 I WINOMILL FARMS 435 tHIRO AVE. I 11990 11990 I SCRIPPS HOSPItAL FJ FTH AVE./"H" ST. I 120000 105000 225000 ---------------------------------~._-------------------------------------...---------------------------------- SUBTOtAL UNOER CONSTRUCtiON SUBTOTAL PLAN CHECK SUBTOtAL OESIGN REVIEW TOTAL SQUARE FOOTAGE 15948 19988 1514835 1550771 90808 I 37816 I 830167 I 958791 I 127720 I 76980 I 466735 I 671435 I 234476 134784 2811737 3180007 FIGURE 3 HISTORIC HOUSING AND POPULATION GROWTH CITY OF CHULA VISTA .. units Authorized for Certif iE;!dYear Construction Units ,Completed End.PopulCition Year (Permitted) (Finaled) (State D.O.F.) 1980 407 374 84,364 1981 195 496 86,597 1982 232 129 88,023 1983 479 279 89,370 1984 1,200 521 91,166 1985 (1) 1,048 1,552 116,325 1986 2,076 1,120 120,285 1987 1,168 2,490 124,253 1988 1,413 829 128,028 1989 1,680 1,321 134,337 1990 664 1,552 138,747 1991 747 716 141,778 1992 519 689 143, 682 (2) (1) Montgomery Annexation (2) Planning Department Estimate FIGURE 4 it) ... w .... a: 5 ----------------------------- ~ :) " '" ~ ~ ;e ~ '" ~ II) on " :!! 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