HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Packet 2000/10/12
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CITYOFCHULA VISTA
ADJOURNED REGULAR MEETING OF THE CITY COUNCIL
AGENDA
OCTOBER 12, 2000
4:00 P.M.
Council Conference Room
Administration
Building
276 Fourth Avenue
CALL TO ORDER
1.
ROLL CALL:
Councilmembers Davis, Moot, Padilla, Salas, and Mayor Horton
2. EASTERN URBAN CENTER WORKSHOP
City staff, in cooperation with McMillin Land Development and its consultants, will
provide an overview of the Eastern Urban Center (EUC), including project goals and
objectives, a review of adopted Otay Ranch General Development Plan guidelines, an
overview of the EUC market analysis, and a discussion of EUC policy issues and
public/private partnership opportunities.
ORAL COMMUNICATIONS
ADJOURNMENT to an Adjourned Regular Meeting on October 16, 2000 at 6:30 p.m.
__iale under penalty of perjury that I am
31 nployed by the City of Chula Villa In the
Office of the City Clerk and that I potted thII
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General Development Plan
Planning Area 12
Freeway Commercial
&
Eastern Urban Center
General Development Plan Section Page
2. Components to Land Use Plan p 85
c. Eastern Urban Center p 87
3. Commercial/Office/Business Park p 109
a. Regional Commercial/Office
. b. Freeway Commercial Policies
12. Eastern Urban Center (Planning Area 12) p 174
a. Eastern Urban Center Setting
b. Eastern Urban Center Description
c. Eastern Urban Center Policies
Character Policies
Design Policies
Parks and Open Space Policies
Transit Policies
Freeway Commercial Policies
Planning Area 12 Map p 179
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Otay Ranch GDP / SRP 0 Part II
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2. Components of the Land Use Plan
The overall pattern of land uses within Otay Ranch Is defined by
the following major elements:
o Villages and Rural Estate Areas
o Area Around the Lakes
o Eastern Urban Center (EUC)
o lndustrlal/Buslness Park/Freeway Commercial
o Open Space
o Parks
o Mobility System
o Potential University
a. Villoges
A pattern of villages Is proposed throughout most of the Otay
Ranch. The Otay Ranch villages concentrate both higher intensity
land uses and "people activities" toward the village core, with
densities generally decreasing away from the cere area. This
organization of land uses promotes pedestrian travel Internally and
supports transit opportunities for external trips. The design
creates a sense of community within each village by attracting
village residents to the village core for social, commuting, public
service and shopping activities. Residential neighborhoods
surround the village core and connect to It by pedestrian and
ctrculatlon systems. This encourages Internal. non-vehicular trips.
The purpose of the village design Is to provide an efficient and
comfortable living environment for Its residents. (Section D, Land
Use Design, Character, and Policies. focuses on the village
concept.)
Otay Ranch contains urban villages, specialty villages and rural
estates areas:
o Urban Villages: these villages are located within the Otay
Valley Parcel, adjacent to existing urban areas. These villages
are transit-oriented, with higher densities and mixed uses In
village cores. An emphasis Is placed on providing alternatives
to the automobile, including transit (bus and light rail),
alternative transportation (golf carts), and pedestrian and
bicycle facilities. Villages One through Eleven are urban
villages. Each urban village has man-made or natural features
or other amenities which provide a unique focus or specialty to
create a sense of identity. While Villages 3 and 4, adjacent to
Wolf Canyon, are designated as urban villages, thetr location
and size limit thetr ability to fully function as urban villages.
.
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October 28. 1993
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Otay Ranch GDP / SRP 0 Part II
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19
OIay Ranch
Village Types, Rural Estate
and Planning Areas
~
Prinary lSels Univel$ity,
seccndaryuseistrban
viIIag..
.
Industrial
Planning Areas
"WtilOlulaVJSl8, beprinaly use of ViIag.3 is
ildustria1,llesecaKlaryuse Is ulbenYiIBge.
Exhibh 25 Otay Ranch Village Types & Rural Estate Areas
.
Although most of the villages are predominately single famlly
oriented. higher densities are permitted within the village core.
Roadways and land use connections facilitate bus service to
the core. Villages One. Five. Six. and Nine are located on the
proposed light rail transit route. and Include the highest
residential intensities and commercial uses to enhance transit
ridership.
Community services will be provided for local needs. based
upon population and the respective facility standards. In some
Instances. two villages may share services. Open spaces
consist of neighborhood. community parks and natural
features - such as canyons. and pedestrian/bicycle and
equestrian trails.
Cl Specialty V1llages: these villages are located In the Proctor
Valley and San Ysidro Mountains Parcels. They consist of a
resort v1llage. an estate village. and transition v1llages (Villages
Thirteen. Fifteen. and Fourteen. respectively). Neighborhood
commercial and community services are provided In a village
core. with limited medium and higher density residential. Low
density. single famlly uses predominate. with potential
recreation and resort uses also provided. Open space Is
primarily undisturbed natural habitat. golf course. trails and
promenades.
October 28. 1993
Page 86
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Otny Ranch GDP/SRP 0 Part II
o Rural Estate Areas: Two very low density residential areas are
located in the easternmost portions of the Proctor Valley and
San Ysidro Mountains Parcels. These areas do not contain
commercial uses.
b. Area Around the Lakes
Although not located on the atay Ranch property. atay Lake Is one
of the most prominent features of the Otay Ranch Project Area.
Portions of each of the three Otay Ranch parcels overlook the lake.
providing uninterrupted views of mountains and the ocean.
The land around the lake Is a desirable place for both development
and recreational/open space opportunities. The area Is one of
great scenic beauty. providing an exceptional opportunity for
housing designed to take advantage of the visual attIibutes of the
site.
The San Ysidro West Vl11age [Vl11age Fifteen) located south of the
lake contains 700+ acres of residential. 3.3 acres of commercial
mixed use and an elementary school.
The Resort Center located north of the lake will contain 230+ acres
of resort and approxinlately 512 acres of residential uses. The
resort center wl11 include hotels. golf course. resort-related
residential uses. clubhouse. commercial and pub)lc service uses.
Planning for all areas around the lake must be coordinated into a
cohesive design.
A university site is designated on the GDP/SRP land use map in
the area of Vl1lages Nine and Ten and west of the lake along
Wueste Road.
c. Eastern Urban Center
A projected Otay Ranch population creates a need for a centralized
urban area to provide the regional goods and services which
cannot be provided in village cores. Certain goods and services are
not avallable in village cores because of the problems caused by
permitting regional traffic into the villages.
The 400+ acre Eastern Urban Center and freeway commercial area
are located east of SR-125. oll a rise overlooking the atay Valley
Parcel. This area will provide an intense. vital activity center to
include an employment base with office, retail, business park. and
visitor-serving commercial uses; cultural. entertainment, civic,
recreation activity and residential uses. The light-rail system
connects the EUC to the region and some of the villages of the
atay Ranch.
October 28. 1993
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Otay Ranch GDP/SRP C Part II
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d.
Industrial/Business Park/Freeway Commercial
The Otay Ranch Land Use Plan designates Industrial/business
park and freeway commercial uses primarily along the SR-125
corridor. Policies relating to Industrial. business park, and
commercial uses are discussed in Section D, Land Use Design,
Character, and Policies. Industrial/commercial uses are located in
the following areas:
Otay Ranch Regional Commercial,
Office and Industrial
Freeway Commercial
Business Park
Industrial
Exhibit 26 EUC, Commercial, Industrial & Business Park S~es
o There are three areas for industrial uses: one located south of
the Otay Valley, adjacent to industrial areas of Otay Mesa; one
west of Paseo Ranchero at the extreme western edge of the
parcel near existing industrial development; and Village 3. The
primary land use for Village Three, per the City of Chula Vista
action, Is Industrial, whereas for the County, the primary land
use designation is village residential. These light Industrial
uses total approximately 603.5 acres.
October 28, 1993
Page 88
Otay Ranch GDP / SRP c Pa..
e
e
e.
3. Commercial/Qffice/Business Park
a. Regional Commercial/Ojfi1:e
The Eastern Urban Center (EUC) contains the most intense
development In Otay Ranch and is the urban heart of the region
(Planning Area 12). Uses and intensities are Intended to create a
lively. twenty-four hour environment. with a creative medley of
uses. building types and amenities. These uses include the
regional retail commercial. hotel and office uses. Retail and office
development within the Eastern Urban Center is of an Intensity
compatible with a "downtown" urban center. The most Intense
development is concentrated near the trolley statlon(s), with
building heights and sizes gradually decreasing toward the edge of
the plann1ng area. (See Part II, Chapter 1, Section F. 12.; Eastern
Urban Center [Planning Area 12) for applicable policies.)
b. Freeway Commercial
Adjacent to the EUC is approximately 106.5 acres of freeway
commercial (Planning Area 12). The freeway commercial area
provides for a mixture of uses suitable for. and dependent on,
direct highway exposure, including large-scale uses which require
sites primarily served by vehicular access. Typical uses permitted
in the Freeway Commercial category (FC) include automobile
centers: discount stores; warehouse outlets; membership clubs;
and other large scale uses that require freeway exposure. Public
uses such as park-and-ride and transit related services are also
permitted.
Freeway Commercial Policies
o The actual amount and location of freeway commercial uses
shall be established at the SPA level.
o The freeway commercial land use category permits freeway-
oriented. low scale buildings of three stories or less (heights
will be established at the SPA level). The mass of the buildings
shall be balanced with landscaped setbacks and landscaping
within parking areas.
o Setbacks. which prevent.a "strip development" appearance,
should be established at the SPA level.
o Landscaping shall create a well-kept and attractive commercial
environment. Large parking areas shall be landscaped to
m1nIm1ze heat gain and break up expanses of asphalt.
o Prepare a signage program for freeway commercial uses
concurrent with the first SPA containing freeway commercial
uses.
October 28. 1993
Page 109
Otay Ranch CDP /SRP 0 Part II
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12. Eastern Urban Center (planning Area 12)
a. Eastern Urban Center Setting
The Eastern Urban Center (EUC) is approximately 439 acres
located in the center of the Otay Valley Parcel. The topography in
this area consists of several broad knolls. The EUC is positioned
at the center of the Otay Ranch community, where the three major
circulation systems converge. These three systems include the
open space network, the proposed SR-125 highway and the
proposed light rail transit system.
Open Space and Habitat: This prominent site will be visible from
many of the developed portions of the ranch. The area has been
extensively farmed and is therefore devoid of sensitive habitat.
Land Use: The area is currently surrounded by vacant farm land
and will be surrounded by Otay Ranch villages. SR-125 is
proposed to form the western boundary of the EUC.
Visual: The EUC is situated along the higher elevations of SR-125.
Therefore, it commands views in all directions of the mountains
and the ocean.
Relationship to Other Otay Ranch Villages: The EUC is located
adjacent to SR-125 on its western edge. The EUC is south of
Village Eleven, west of Village Ten, and north of Village Nine. This
is the central commercial and office node for the entire ranch and
w11l be physically linked with all other villages.
b. Eastern Urban Center Description
The EUC is an urban center, serving regional commercial,
financial, professional. entertainment, and cultural needs. This
prime location is designated as the Eastern Urban Center to
announce its role as the heart of the eastern territories in South
San Diego County. The center will be a viable and intense mixture
of uses that will act as a magnetic downtown, drawing residents,
visitors and businesses.
The center will be composed of buildings of varying orientations. It
will contain specialty land uses. as well as shopping and
entertainment uses. Landmark architecture will be encouraged to
create a pronounced identity. An internal circulation system will
provide for pedestrians, bus and trolley connections. This system
w11l provide efficient access throughout the Eastern Urban Center
and to the ultimate trolley line through this region.g
The Eastern Urban Center contains:
Cl 2,500 multi-family high density residential units
Cl Build-out population of approximately 6,375
Cl Regional shopping complex
October 28, 1993
Page 174
Otay Ranch GDP / SRP c Pari II
.
o Multi-Use Cultural Arts Facility (including civic arts/theaters
and museums)
0 Regional Purpose Facilities
0 NeIghborhood Park
0 Business Park
0 Visitor Commercial
0 Light Rail Transit station
0 An Elementary School
0 Community Park
0 Urban Open Space Corridor
0 Central Library and Civic Centers
0 Affordable Housing
.
Planning Area 12 (EUC)
Use SF MF Total Res. Dens Park CPF Sch C'm!. Open Art. Ac. Total Approx.
Units Unb Un~s Ac. Ac' Ac. Ac. Ac. Sp. Ac. Pop.
EUC" 35.6 8:9 ".
0 2,500 2,500 70:1 45.0 10.0 134.0 6,375
Reg. Mall 0 0 0 0.0 25.0 25.0 0
Vi~or 0 0 0 0.0 20.0 20.0 0
Comm.
Cuttural 0 0 0 0.0 5.0 5.0 0
otI-low 0 0 0 0.0 80.0 80.0 0
Riseillus.
otI- 0 25.0 25.0 0
MedlHigh
Rise
FC 0 1062 106.2 0
OTHER 0 0 0 0.0 20.0 24.2 442 0
TOTAl 0 2,500 2,500 70.1 45.0 8.9 10.0 2612 20.0 24.2 439.4 6,375
'Actual park size to be determined by Parks Master Plan at the SPA level.
.. Regional MaD, VlS~Or Commercial, Olfice-low Rise Business and Olfice-MediumlHigh Rise area an uses permitted within the EUC land
use designation. The characteristics and location of these subordinate uses wiD be defined as part of the EUC SPA plan. It is anticipated that
atl uses within the EUC could equate to 6,006,000 sq. ft. of total uses. '.
~
Exhibit 63 Planning Area 12 (EUC) land Use Table
.
October 28. 1993
Page 175
Otay Ranch GDP / SRP 0 Part II
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c. Eastern Urban Center Policies
EUC Character Policies:
o The character of the EUC should be guided by the following
elements:
.
o Location at high point on the Otay Valley Parcel.
o Synergism with adjacent villages. especially Village Ten.
o 360 degree views to Point Lorna and the mountains.
o Location along light rall transit.
o Locate civic and regional purpose facl1lties in accordance with
the siting criterian in the Facl1lty Implementation Plan. The
amount and size wIl1 be determined at the SPA level.
o The floor area ratio shall permit multi-storied buildings. hlgh-
rise buildings and parking structures. The exact ratio will be
established at the SPA level.
o Locate less intense land uses around the edges of the EUC and
utilize landscaped buffers of varyiilg widths to create a
transition to surrounding villages.
o Integrate commercial and residential uses to support a 24-hour
environment.
o Create a regional shopping complex focused on major shopping
activities.
o Provide for an array of services such as financial. medical. and
research-oriented facUlties in office areas.
o Locate theaters and ,museums in prominent locations. to
broaden the appeal of the EUC as a viable regional hub of
cultural activity.
EUC Urban Design policies:
o Orient buildings to create a continuous facade to pedestrian
spaces. Define the pedestrian areas to provide a continuous
pedestrian experience.
o Emphasize an urban street scene by locating buildings at the
sidewalk edge. except where creating pedestrian oriented
spaces such as patios. plazas. malls and squares.
o Buildings fronting on streets or pedestrian spaces should
contain uses that support pedestrian activities such as dining.
retail sites and entertainment. and cultural experiences.
o Individual buildings or building clusters should Incorporate
elements of art which can be viewed and experienced from
adjacent public space.
.
October 28. 1993
Page 176
Otay Ranch GDP / SRP 0 Pan I1
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o To create vitality and excitement, activities should flow out
from buildings onto public spaces (I.e. sidewalk cafes, street
vendors, sidewalk entertainment).
o Buildings should Incorporate design. features which
complement a pedestrian scale, such as horizontal
components, overhangs, facade detail, display areas, and
pedestrian seating.
o Buildings should exhibit an urban character through the use
of appropriate materials, textures, and scale.
o The scale of prominent buildings should be generally mid-rise,
up to 15 stories.
o Buildings should display qualities that are characteristic of
landmark architecture.
o Utilize streetscape amenities, such as enhanced street paving,
bollards and street furnishings, to establish Identity.
o Establish view corridors which focus on and connect key visual
landmarks.
o Promlnantly feature major activities nodes such as transit
stations, civic building and urban parks.
o Varying, but complementary, land uses should be Integrated to
provide a mixed-use environment. A strong pedestrian
connection should be created between uses.
o Encourage a mixture of land uses particularly where structures
front a pedestrian plaza or urban park.
o A variety of uses, Including residential, should be incorporated
within a single structure where feasible.
o The circulation system should minimize conflict with the
pedestrian system.
Parks and Open Space Policies:
Application of the 3 acres per 1.000 residents standard would
result in the development of 45 acres of local parks in the EUC.
The EUC will contain 45 acres of neighborhood parks/town square
and a community park (combined).
The following policies shall guide the design of parks and open
spaces In the Eastern Urban Center:
o A neighborhood park may be constructed contiguous to or
separate from the community park.
o Incorporate a pedestrian open space/trail corridor (average 200
feet wide) across the EUC which connects to Wolf Canyon and
Salt Creek. This corridor will create a strong east/west open
space system and reflect differing characteristics as It moves
through Otay Ranch. This corridor will be further defined by
the overall Ranch Design Plan.
.
October 28. 1993
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Otny Ranch GDP /SRP 0 Part H
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o The average width of the open space/trail conidor shall be
calculated from one edge of the village to the other.
o Provide a network of pedestrian spaces, plazas, malls,
promenades, and squares to create a pedestrian oriented
environment.
o Individual building and building clusters should Integrate
pedestrian plazas with the overall pedestrian system.
o Pedestrian plazas should Incorporate fountains or artistic
features as a visual focus.
Other Eastern Urban Center Policies
o Right-of-way for a transit line and transit stop/station within
the EVC and Freeway Commercial area shall be reserved at the
SPA level and irrevocably offered for dedication at the Tentative
Map level.
Freeway Commercial Policies:
o This category Includes regional uses which require an
automobile orientation near regional transportation systems.
Expected uses Include thoroughfare commerclal-, visitor
commercial and regionally oriented retail commercial
o The freeway-oriented commercial area shall Include uses such
as: an auto center, membership commercial, wholesale or
discount outlets and other uses which require direct freeway
exposure and serve a regional market.
o Develop a slgnage and graphic program at the SPA level.
o Reserve a park-and-rlde at the transit stop at the northeast
intersection of Birch Road and SR-125.
October 28, 1993
Page 178
Otay Ranch CDP / SRP " Part II
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75-loot Average
Buffer Along Arterials
Buffer Edge
Reserve Rlght-ol-Way
for Transit
Provide for Multi-Modal
Park and Ride Facility
.
"/
Buffer/Allow For
Visual Access
to EUC and
Freeway
ICommerclal
75-loot Average
Buller Along Arterials
.
Exhibh 64 Planning Area 12 (EVG) Land Use Map
Provide lor Complementary
Relationship with Core 01
Village 10
200-loot average
width within Village
October 28. 1993
Page 179
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THE LONDON GROUP
Realty Advisors, Inc.
Eastern Urban Center
Commercial Market Analysis
For
The McMillin Companies
October 2000
.
The London Group Realty Advisors, Inc. <I:J 2000
12770 High Bluff Drive, Suite 360 San Diego, CA 92130
Phone: 858-793-0048 Fax: 793-0074
glondon@londongroup.com
.
~L~~G~<?~
Page 2
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ExECUTlVE OVERVIEW
The London Group Realty Advisors, Inc. has completed commercial market analyses and
provided strategic recommendations for the development of the Freeway Commercial and
Eastern Vrban Center (EVC) sites within the Otay Ranch General Development Plan, the
properties designated for commercial development at the Otay Ranch.
Comprehensive market analyses were undertaken which tested many different
commercial land use approaches. We analyzed various retail concepts, commercial
office, R&D and transient commercial (hotels).
We have recommended the development ofa one million square foot or larger 'life-style'
center as the cornerstone project of the EVC. The vision is a quality designed, pedestrian
oriented mix of full-price retailers and a strong entertainment component.
This regional 'life-style' center will maximize consumer demand from the primary
market area; yet will also attract consumers who reside elsewhere in San Diego and
Mexico. This approach represents the best opportunity for success for this project,
without substantially drawing from existing South County retail centers.
.
The Freeway Commercial and EVC should also include an array of other commercial
opportunities, including
~ 'Power Center' which would be developed to 300,000 to 400,000 square feet by
2003 and phased to include approximately 600,000 square feet by 2012/13.
~ Several neighborhood or community retail centers (up to 7, depending on site and
size limitations) for day-to-day grocery and convenience shopping.
> Two hotels, including initial development of a limited service 60-80 room facility
on the Freeway Commercial and a 125 to 150 room hotel on the EVC in 2004.
The opportunity will also exist for a larger, full service hotel or resort on the EVC
site, once the community is nearer build out.
~ Business Parks, including a significant capture (depending on land availability) of
the projected 3.5 to 6.1 million square feet ofR&D space and 3.2 to 5.9 million
square feet of commercial offices which we estimate will be developed in the
South County by 2010. This project might initially include two to four story Class
A office structures integrated within the overall theme of the EVC, but may
eventually include structures as high as eight to ten stories.
~ Restaurant pads and food oriented retailing.
~ Housing, including apartments and owner-occupied medium to high density.
Each of these components would be phased into the project as Otay Ranch is built out,
the SR-125 toll road is completed and this eastern portion of South County is developed.
.
Commercial Market Analysis
The McMillin Companies
~ L9,.tlPoJjiG~~~
Page 3
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INTRODucnON
The London Group Realty Advisors, Inc. has completed a commercial market analysis
and provided strategic recommendations for the development of the freeway commercial
and Eastern Urban Center (EUC) sites within the Otay Ranch General Development Plan
(GDP). The sites are located directly east of the SR-125 freeway, now under
development.
These sites represent the composite land holdings of the properties designated for
commercial development at the Otay Ranch. Our study focus has been to underStand, for
land use planning purposes, the commercial opportunities available to all of the sites.
This report is not an attempt to assign any type of land use designations or timing to
specific properties or ownerships. We exclusively represent the development interests of
The McMillin Companies and no other property owners.
This report addresses the market conditions for the following prospective commercial
land use elements:
.
G Retail: we have analyzed the potential for various sized retail centers including
neighborhood, community, power, regional and a mix of each.
G Hotel: we have evaluated various hotel opportunities.
G Employment: we have examined various employment land opportunities
including commercial and corporate office, R&D and industrial.
In particular, we have addressed the following questions and issues:
G What is the demand for commercial retail from the development of Otay Ranch
and other South County projects?
G Given short-term and long-term buildout, what are the other commercial
opportunities?
G How can these opportunities be phased and mixed to maximize the potential in
this new sector ofthe South County market?
This report is an independent market analysis exclusively addressing the opportunity for
success of the freeway commercial and Eastern Urban Center sites. This report is
intended to be employed by The Corky McMillin Companies as a tool in which to
accomplish development of their project and surrounding land uses in a manner that
maximizes the potential of the market.
Research for this project was completed in March 2000 and updated in September 2000.
Conclusions and recommendations are strictly those of The London Group Realty
Advisors, Inc. Users of this information should recognize that assumptions and
.
Commercial Market Analysis
The McMillin Companies
W T QNDONGROuP
j: L.~n-.-,] :!C" Ie. \i!j'
Page 4
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projections contained in this report will vary from the actual experience in the
marketplace. Therefore, The London Group Realty Advisors, Inc. is not responsible for
the actions taken or any limitations, financial or otherwise, of property owners, investors,
lenders, public agencies, operators or tenants.
.
.
Commercial Market Analysis
The McMillin Companies
~ L9~9~G~<2.~
Page 5
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ExECUTIVE SUMMARY
MARKET ANAL YSlS CONCLUSIONS
The London Group Realty Advisors, Inc. has completed a market analysis of the
commercial development potential of the commercially designated property at the Otay
Ranch. The commercial areas include the Freeway Commercial north of Birch Road that
will be ready for immediate development at the completion of the SR-125 freeway. The
other commercial property is called the Eastern Urban Center (EUC) south of Birch
Road. This property will be available for phased development as Otay Ranch progresses.
The purpose of this section is to highlight the conclusions of the market analysis which
address retail, hotel and employment land uses:
.
Retail Analysis
~ Neighborhood Retail Centers: In the short-term (2000 t02006) 33,700 housing units
will be added to the Primary Market Area (PMA). The annual grocery expenditure
per household is estimated at $5,3 I 5, based on $38 per person per week. By 2006,
seven supermarket-sized grocery stores can be supported to meet the demand
generated by these households. These supermarkets would be the anchors to
neighborhood centers throughout the Otay Ranch. However, because several of the
designated locations are not adequately sized for neighborhood commercial centers,
the seven centers may not physically be built even though market support will exist.
~ Power Center: Research suggests that a power center sized at approximately 600,000
square feet may be supported. Total power center expenditures can be captured at the
subject site is approximately $220 million. There are three components that contribute
to this supporting demand, including the power center expenditures generated by the
47,227 future households within the PMA at buildout, existing residents in the PMA,
and residents of Baja California. This power center should be phased so that it is
consistent with growing expenditures in the market. We believe that supporting
market demand for the first phase of approximately 300,000 to 400,000 square feet
will be present by the end of 2003.
~ Regional Center: There are approximately $214 million in total regional shopping
center expenditures generated by the 47,227 projected future households within the
PMA at buildout, which is likely to occur by 2012 to 2013. Existing residents within
the PMA will augment PMA spending by approximately $42 million. Thus, projected
regional shopping center demand, estimated to be $256 million, suggest the following
conclusions:
);> The retail industry standard requirement is $275 million to $300 million for an
approximately one million square foot, department store anchored regional
.
Commercial Market Analysis
The McMillin Companies
w I.;QNDO~GE>OUl'
i!: ;,.."--....l ~'i". Ie. _,,ji:
Page 6
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shopping center. By comparison, the average expenditure for each of the ten
existing regional centers in San Diego County is estimated to be $309 million.
The estimate of $256 million in the PMA falls short of the capability of the PMA
as weH as the regional average.
)> When the demand levels achievable from the secondary market ($72 million) and
Baja California residents ($52 million) are included, total regional center
expenditure estimates rise to $381 million, a demand level sufficient to support a
regional shopping center. However, if the Mexican market is to impact the EUC
certain 'barriers-to-entry' will have to be overcome, including the extent to which
Mexicans will enter the U.S. at the Otay Mesa border crossing, as well as whether
middle class Mexicans wiH travel on the SR-125 toll road. Inevitably, competition
by retailers and retail centers in Mexico will increase in the coming years, as the
number of investments in Mexican shopping centers has recently increased with
the valuation of the peso.
)> The existing regional shopping centers in the South County are the Chula Vista
Shopping Center and Plaza Bonita. They meet many of the current shopping
requirements of the secondary market and of residents of Baja Califomia. The
addition of a new regional center is likely to transfer 20% to 35% of current
expenditures from the Chula Vista Center to the new regional center, depending
upon the range of 'leakage' .
.
)> There is a significant outflow leakage from residents of the PMA as well as
affluent Mexicans, who currently bypass existing South County shopping centers,
favoring centers north of Interstate 8 including Fashion VaHey, Mission VaHey,
University Towne Center and Horton Plaza. A key to a successful regional center
at the subject site is to recapture this demand.
Although existing regional center demand and market conditions do not justify a
one million square foot regional center, there is a preferred, alternative approach
that will achieve success, including a positive fiscal impact to the City of Chula
Vista. We believe that a one million square foot regional 'life-style' center, including
a mix of full-price retailers and a strong entertainment component, will attract the
necessary consumer demand from secondary markets, including San Diego County
and Mexico, to support a center of this magnitude.
Hotel
There is a viable opportunity to initially develop a limited service, 60 to 80 room
hotel/motel on the Freeway Commercial site. This is likely to be a limited service product
comparable to the 1-805 corridor hotels including Ramada, La Quinta and Holiday Inn.
Later, there will be a market opportunity to develop a 125 to 150-room hotel at the EUC
offering similar amenities and services as a Hilton Garden Inn product. This will
.
Commercial Market Analysis
The McMillin Companies
~ L9~n~l'jG!}<2.Ul;
Page 7
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command the higher room rates and occupancies in the market. Once the Otay Ranch
development begins to fill in, and there are retailing, restaurants and entertainment
venues, such a hotel will be feasible. Specifically, it should be integrated within the
Eastern Urban Center as a part of the mixed-use element. This will complement and
perhaps encourage additional demand for a specialty/entertainment environment. The
hotel should be expected to open in 2004 after the SR-125 is constructed and fully
functional.
Specifically, we have determined the following:
o The demand for hotels is generated principally from visitors conducting business
at the many industrial plants in Mexico and other Mexican business persons,
American corporate travelers, tourists, military and local traffic. While the current
hotels in the market target these demand sectors, with increasing border crossings
occurring east, corporate and maquiladora demand is anticipated to increase. Demand
is also expected to grow in the future with the development of Otay Mesa and the
Otay Ranch.
o The South County market is a 'stand alone' market because it does not experience
significant overflow from Downtown San Diego and the San Diego Convention
Center. Hotels in National City currently capture any overflow from the north.
.
o The existing competitive set of hotels within the market area supplies 903 rooms
in eight hotels and motels, or approximately 330,000 available room nights to the
market. Occupancy rates have been in the 71 % to 75% range for the past three years.
o Occupancy for the competitive set has increased from 65% in 1993 to 75% in
1999, which is a healthy average annual increase of 2.4%.
o The average daily rate for the competitive set has increased from $40.51 to $53.37
per room, which is an average increase of 4.7% per year.
o Occupancy rate is expected to rise to over 84% in 2003 and then drop to 76.8% in
2005, which is a direct result of the addition of the subject site (120 to 150 rooms) to
the market. The average daily rate (ADR) of $53.37 will continue to grow to $67.47
by 2005.
This is a market that could become capacity constrained by as early as 200 I, when
occupancy is forecasted to reach 79.6%. Business is lost when market occupancies reach
80% and the supply of hotel rooms is not sufficient at any given time. This level of
support is sufficient to introduce new product with the amenity and service package of a
Hilton Garden Inn. Furthermore, occupancies only drop to 74.6% when the subject site
opens in 2004 with 150 rooms, which is a very strong hotel market indicator.
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The opportunity will also exist in the future for a larger, full service hotel or resort on the
EUC site, once the community is nearer buildout.
Employment Splice
An analysis of demand for employment lands at the Otay Ranch specifically concluded
the following:
~ Overall EmDlovrnent: There are 11,072 acres remammg for development of
employment space in San Diego County. South County's share of this inventory is
5,221 acres (4,447 Otay Mesa, and 774 Chula Vista) or 47%. Based on a limited
supply of employment land elsewhere in San Diego County, we expect South County
to capture 30% to 35% of total employment growth (104,582 to 122,012 additional
employees) in San Diego County during the 2000 to 2020 period.
~ R&D: Assuming projected employment capture rates for South County ranging
from 20% to 35%, South County is projected to capture 8,750 to 15,313 high-tech
jobs over the 2000 to 2010 period. This will require approximately 3.5 to 6.1 million
square feet of R&D space which will be developed on 201 to 352 acres by 2010,
depending upon the amount of square footage developed and land coverage. These
buildings are typically one to two stories in height, and will house high tech
employees or biotech lab space.
.
~ Commercial Office: Assuming that South County achieves a capture of 33% to
37% of projected San Diego County employment, which is typically accommodated
in commercial offices, approximately 12,601 to 23,615 new commercial office jobs
will be added between 2000 to 2010. This will require approximately 3.2 to 5.9
million square feet of space which will be developed on 60 to 113 acres by 2010,
depending upDn the amount of square footage developed and land coverage. The
EUC could accommodate Class A office space initially ranging from two to four
stories with an average floor plate between 15,000 and 20,000 square feet. The
architecture of these office buildings would be integrated with the overall theme of
the EUC and would be the 'prime' office space of South County.
It is possible that much of South County's share of commercial office and R&D space
can be captured at Otay Ranch. It's superior location and master planned community
setting are significant factors that will attract new and expanding businesses. The EUC is
an ideal place to seed this opportunity in the South County.
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RECOMMENDED DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM AND LAND USE DISTRIBUTION
Based upon our market analysis, we recommend the following development program and
land use distribution within the freeway and EVC commercial areas:
I A power center, estimated to range from 500,000 to 700,000 square feet of gross
leasable area that can be accommodated on 70 to 90 acres.
2 Clusters of food oriented retailing---Qne in proximity to the power center and one in
proximity to a lodging concentration which can be accommodated on pads totaling 15
to 25 acres.
3 A regional 'life-style' retail/entertainment center. This concept is approximately one
million square feet in size and includes a combination of full-price and outlet stores
combined with entertainment that can be accommodated on 80 to 100 acres.
4 Two or more business parks that will function as employment centers-in the form of
both traditional office and technology space. Office buildings would be a minimum
of two stories but may be as high as eight to ten stories. On-going analysis will be
necessary to determine specific market opportunities for later phase mid-rise office
buildings. We would reserve 40 to 50 acres for commercial office structures.
.
5 Housing can be expected to take a number of forms including a combination of renter
and owner-occupied medium and higher density dwellings. Affordable, yet non-
subsidized housing is most realistically achieved through rental housing. Medium
densities of 18 to 24 units per acre with surface parking and higher density housing of
30 to 60 units per acre with structured parking. We would reserve 50-70 acres for the
various housing opportunities.
6 Hotel or motel uses are also expected on both the freeway commercial site and at the
EVC. We recommend the reservation of 10 to 20 acres for these facilities.
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Regional Ce1ller
Regional centers are in the process of change and fewer traditional regional centers are
being constructed in the United States today. Development of super-regional centers of
1.5 million square feet and larger are increasingly rare. What are being developed are
'hybrid' regional centers or 'life-style' centers of one million square feet or less,
anchored by full price stores including somewhat smaller department and outlet stores
and a sizable contingent of "entertainment retail." Such centers provide entertainment
experiences for the entire family along with a great variety of shopping opportunities.
By combining traditional and new types of retail shopping and entertainment, smaller
regional centers are able to increase their market draw, reaching to a population further
away, as well as penetrating the Mexican market, both of which are attracted through the
unique combination of activities offered.
.
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CORPORATE PROFILE
THE LONDON GROUP
Realty AdviJors, Inc.
REPRESENTATfVESERVICES
Market and Feasibility Studies
Financial Structuring
Asset Disposition
Government Processing
Development Services
Fiscal Impact
Strategic Planning
Capital Access
Litigation Consulting
Work-Out Projects
Valuation
Economic Analysis
The London Group is a full service real estate investment and development consulting, capital
access and publishing finn. We determine the answers to the questions: Should I purchase the
property? If so, how much should I pay and what is my potential rate of return? What type of
project should I invest in or develop? What type of deal should I structure?
To answer these questions we conduct market analysis, feasibility studies, provide financial
structuring advice and general economic consulting. Often we 'package' the deal and provide
access to capital sources. We also have capabilities in pre-development consulting including
asset management and disposition and in providing team coordination, processing and disposition
services (packaging and promotion).
.
The. London Group cyber publishes The Real Estate & Economic Monitor a newsletter providing
market trend analysis and commentary for the serious real estate investor. It is available and
regularly updated on the World Wide Web at the following address:
htto://www.londoOlrroup.com.
As the former West Region Director of the Price Waterhouse Real Estate Consulting Group, Gary
London brings acknowledged credentials and experience as an advisor and analyst to many
successful projects and assigmnents throughout North America.
The London Group also draws upon the experience of professional relationships in the
development, legal services, financial placement fields as well as its own staff.
Clients who are actively investigating and investing in apartment projects, retail centers and
commercial projects have regularly sought our advice and financial analysis capabilities.
We have analyzed, packaged and achieved capital for a wide variety of real estate projects
including hotels, office buildings, retail shopping centers and residential housing communities.
Weare generalists with experiences ranging from large scale, master planned communities to
urban redevelopment projects, spanning all land uses and most development issues. These
engagements have been undertaken throughout North America for a number of different clients
including developers, investors, financial institutions, insurance companies, major landholders
and public agencies.
12770 High Bluff Drive, Suite 360, San Diego, CA 92130
858-793-0048 . Fax 793-0074 . emaill!londonaillondonl!rOuD.com
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RECOMMENDED DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
POLICY ANALYSIS AND PUBLIC-PRIVATE
PAR TNERING
The market analysis report prepared by the London Group in April 2000 established
achievable buying power, employment and lodging demand at the Otay Ranch
Eastern Vrban Center (EVC). Translating these estimates of demand into patterns of
land use begins with a development program. This report describes development
program recommendations for the McMillin portions of both the Freeway Commercial
and EVC portions of Planning Area 12 of Otay Ranch. It also includes preliminary
recommendations for creating a public-private partnership between McMillin and the
City of Chula Vista and an analysis of public policies that may present challenges and
opportunities in such a partnership.
A development program is a narrative description of how a property or area should be
developed. The program serves as a guide to the physical planners (land planners,
architects,landscape architects and others) who are responsible for translating the
narrative program into a physical land use, transportation and utility plan. The
development program describes an overall identity for the project including theme,
image, and attributes to be merchandised. The objective of a development program is to
reinforce the capture of target markets, maintain economically viable conditions, and"
create a positive, long-term identity to successfully guide the development phases of the
project.
Typically, development programs describe the product and amenities of the
development, which are based on the market analysis. Both products and amenities
must be simultaneously pursued for the purpose of accelerating project sales, leases and
rents, mitigating absorption risk through "place-making" and generating sufficient
revenues to service front-end infrastructure investment.
Preparing a development program for the EVC begins with establishing a statement of
the recommended overall theme and identity for the project. This statement of the
project should be both adopted by the owner and supported by the City. It is analogous
to the mission statement in a business plan. It is the guiding statement against which
later program details can be "tested" for compliance in support of the overall theme.
Eve Development Program
Preparing a development program for the EVC is particularly challenging. In addition to
the traditional factors of market conditions, site conditions and location, access,
infrastructure and other factors, programming for the EVC is further impacted by an
array of policy and fiscal expectations as well as public and private hopes and ideals.
The process should never lose sight of the fact that the EVC will be the heart of a new
town. As such, it is considerably more challenging than a single use, stand-alone
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commercial enterprise. The economic success of new towns and very large new
communities in America is not encouraging. Care must be taken at the EUC and
throughout Otay Ranch to insure that the fatal mistakes of other well-intentioned
projects are not replicated here. The sheer size, scale and range of expected uses qualify
the EUC for a public-private partnership. It will involve not only a blend of public and
private uses, but equally important, a necessary financial contribution by both the public
and private sectors to assure both short-term and long-term success. Such success in
turn generates sales tax revenues which returns to the public for reinvestment.
Background and Public Planning Considerations
In approximately 1993, the City of Chula Vista and the former owners of the Otay Ranch
prepared public policy relating to development of the Otay property. These policies
"remain on the books" and have not been altered for eight or more years. Since that
time, ownership of the property, economic conditions, and planning and implementation
of public-private mixed-use developments has changed as a result of knowledge gained
over the past decade. The applicable public policies are listed in the table entitled 'Otay
Ranch: Policy Implementation Assessment' located in Appendix A. The policies are
discussed in detail later in this report.
Original policy intent for the EUC is that it will accommodate both a freeway commercial
sector of development and an urban mixed-use development. The City, in its 1993 policy
statement, described the Eastern Urban Center as follows:
The EUC is an urban center, serving regional commercial,financial,
professional, entertainment, and cultural needs. This prime location is
designated as the Eastern Urban Center to announce its role as the heart of the
Eastern Territories in South San Diego County. The Center will be a viable and
intense mixture of uses that will act as a magnetic downtown, drawing
residents, visitors and businesses.
The Center will be composed of buildings of varying orientations. It will
contain specialty land uses, as well as shopping and entertainment uses.
Landmark architecture will be encouraged to create a pronounced identity. An
internal circulation system will provide for pedestrians, bus and trolley
connections. This system will provide efficient access throughout the Eastern
Urban Center and to the ultimate trolley line through this region.
The Eastern Urban Center will contain:
. 2,500 multi:family high-density residential units;
. Build-out population of approximately 6,375;
. Regional shopping complex;
. Multi-use cultural arts facility (including civic arts/theaters and museums);
. Regionalpurposefacilities;
. Neighborhood park;
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. Business park;
. Visitor commercial;
. Light rail transit station;
. Elementary school;
. Community park;
. Urban open space corridor;
. Central library and civic centers;
. Affordable housing.
Theme
The overall theme for the EVe is a mixed-use, multi-phase, public-private town center
development with an emphasis on retailing. The project will have a light rail trolley
system and, therefore, an opportunity for some transit-oriented development and a mix
ofland uses to be implemented over time. Much of the EVe's visual continuity can be
established through streetscape design-the size and location of streets, landscaping,
lighting, street furniture and other elements that will provide continuity throughout the
project. A consistent and quality landscape theme allows for both a variety of land uses
and different architectural designs to coexist in proximity to each other.
Downtowns, town centers, main streets, and other significant urban places are in fact, a
collection of places. It's the collection of the parts that makes town centers interesting-
a residential area, an employment center, a retailing center, public plazas, and other
identities. The challenge for the EVe will be to provide a theme that connects each place
and provides a touchstone for identity during the build-out phasing.
Public- Private Partnershi~ortunity
As stated previously, the size and scope of the Eve will require some degree of public-
private partnering that will include planning and implementation efforts by both parties.
The ability of both the private developer and the public staff to build sufficient trust is
important in order to combine their efforts to ease implementation. Some of the most
successful urban centers, whether in downtowns or suburban developments, have
involved public-private partnering. This section discusses the advantages of public-
private partnerships and the ground rules or assumptions that can form the basis for
working together.
Why Pursue Public-Private Partnerships?
The mixed-use character of the Eve suggests a public-private solution but the extent of
that partnering depends on how motivated both partners are to pursue a spirit of joint
development. The following advantages of partnerships can be used as a testing ground
to define the advantages within the EVe.
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. Through a negotiated strategy, the public and private sectors can pool resources and
share responsibilities.
. Partnerships enable governments to leverage scarce public funds with private capital.
They have the potential for easing implementation for the private sector, thus
reducing the time and therefore the expense of development-critical to affordable
housing.
. Public-private partnerships require strategic public decisions about development-
the City Council and staff must be ready to target City funds and staff time to
generate the private investment and desired development within the target area.
. Taxpayers and voters expect government to squeeze more value out of public dollars
and to leverage the improvements to attract private investment.
. Partnerships have the potential to optimize the value of publicly owned assets while
reducing the costs of management and development of those sites.
. The private sector needs access to regulatory flexibility and the public sector needs
private investment-in a negotiated strategy, they become partners who need each
other.
. Both the City and its private partners will need to join forces in order to build public
trust through public information and involvement in the process.
. In a successful public-private project negotiation, both sides need to be responsive
not only to each other's needs and viewpoint but also to the realities of structuring
such ventures in the political arena and the economic marketplace.
. While public entities provide incentives, private developers provide the essential
ingredients such as invaluable market knowledge; development and management
skills; prospective tenants or buyers and risk capital.
. Both public and private financing techniques can be used to reduce risk and achieve
public goals for the type and quality of private development desired by the public.
o Government or a private developer cannot alone create successful urban centers.
Nor will they emerge of their own accord. Instead, success requires that both
partners work together toward a common vision, aware of their differences and able
to negotiate.
These advantages highlight the leverage both McMillin Land Development and the City of
Chula Vista have with one another as they pursue the development of the EUC. Each player
has the ability to contribute essential elements to create a development that far outweighs
what either could accomplish alone.
Rules of the Game
The City and McMillin Land Development have a decision to make as to how to move
forward on this project and the extent to which they are willing to enter into a public-
private partnership. The project will move forward more successfully only if some
ground rules are established and an understanding of the "rules of the game" developed.
The following rules of private-public partnerships have provided a basis for successful
partnerships.
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1.
Developers make market-based investment decisions.
. Developers of urban center projects say tbey make real estate investment
decisions, not "smart growth" or "transit" or "neo-traditional" decisions.
. The fundamental investment decision must respond to identify real estate
market opportunities.
. Understanding tbis is essential to achieving successful urban center
development.
. If tbe target real estate market does not exist, the necessary development
capital will not be invested.
2. Markets are unforgiving.
. Markets are people. Projects respond to people's needs, desires, and
especially their ability to pay.
. In a real estate context, tbis means places to live, work, shop, learn, play and
be entertained.
. We, as tbe market, can and will reject a real estate product tbat is not
responsive to our desires and needs.
3.
Recognize that public and private players have different goals.
Public Sector
. Long-term goals are multi-faceted, defined publicly and in tbe public interest;
. Goals tend to be (more) general and may be stated in tbe comprehensive plan,
neighborhood plan, regional plan or economic development and
transportation plans; and
. Often goals shift depending upon public perception and political climate.
Private Sector
. Defined privately witb specific objectives such as return on investment;
. Short-term nature of capital versus long-term nature of public goals;
. Developers may have personal goals such as enhancing tbe connection,
creating a quality project or establishing strength in a property/product
market; and
. Market opportunity, available financing, cost of capital and otber factors
shape business goals of developers.
4. Private capital follows public commitment.
. Most investors and developers are reluctant to pioneer new concepts.
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. This is especially true in locations that are seen as outside the mainstream of
development-unfortunately many new urbanist centers are still perceived
this way.
. Difficult regulations or unreasonable restrictions will stop or slow
development or result in excessive cost.
. Barriers to successful implementation must be removed or neutralized by the
public before private investors are willing to enter the market.
. The public must invest in its urban centers-streetscape, structured parking,
public open spaces, cultural and civic facilities, libraries, museums, etc.
Public-Private Partnering at the Otay Ranch
The City of Chula Vista and McMillin Land Development have much at stake in the
successful development of the Otay Ranch land. Both entities have a basis to negotiate
and to promote clear communication because economic conditions and public goals from
the first planning of the property in 1993 need to be revisited. As the EUC project moves
into pre-development programming, both private and public interests must be
negotiated and aligned. Several steps can be taken in these early stages of planning to
develop communication, trust and willingness to negotiate for a far better end product
that meets both private goals and public interests.
Fortunately, McMillin Land Development and the City of Chula Vista have a long and
successful working relationship that spans more than 20 years. Much trust is in place.
But the devil is in the details and it is the details that can make or break the EUC.
Agree Upon a Shared Vision or Development Principles
Successful public-private partnerships are based on some shared development principles
or goal statement. Examples of broad principles to guide planning for the EUC include:
. Diverse and concentrated mix of uses that create a strong, lively center:
. Mixture of complementary uses;
. Concentrated area;
. Generation of pedestrian activity;
. Creation of a lively, interesting social environment; and
. Creation of a profitable business setting.
. Quality design establishes a distinctive sense of place:
. Physical setting for pedestrian activity;
. Comfortable and convenient; and
. Visually interesting and secure.
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The City of Chula Vista and McMillin Land Development have begun negotiation of the
vision based on the earlier policies. The two partners are beginning to define the limits
of a vision statement.
Clear Expectations
Another step in the development of successful partnerships is the articulation of
expectations during the early stages of project planning. Understanding the different
interests and expectations necessary from a public or a private standpoint can enhance
the ability of the partners to work together. One of the key roles of the consulting team is
to clear the project of unexpressed expectations and provide negotiation of conflicting
goals. The current exploration of the 1993 policy expectations helps to set the stage for
building clear expectations for the project. In addition, both partners should define their
performance and process expectations for one another. The following statements are an
example of some of the potential public or private sector expectations gained in other
communities. These may be added to or expanded upon and this may be the next
exercise that the City and McMillin engage in to define their expectations for the
performance of each partner and communication and process ground rules.
.
What the Private Sector Developer seeks from the Public Sector:
Political Will
. Aligned and stable Council/Planning Commission;
. Strong community support;
. Business and community alignment; and
. Favorable (or at least neutral) press.
Financial Means
. Sales tax with reinvestment into the project;
. Bonding capacity;
. Fair and reasonable regulations;
. A clear plan with quality controls; and
. Other incentives and mechanisms.
. What the Public Sector Developer seeks from the Private Sector:
Developers who have done public-private partnerships
. Who know the public scrutiny and won't back out;
. Who understand public process and the microscopic view of a public project;
. Who have experience in the project type that is anticipated; and
. Track record of success.
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Developers who are financially strong
. Equity or an equity source is in place; and
. Debt sources as well.
Developers who are in itfor the long haul
. Most projects are as, or more dependent on, long-term operations as they are
on initial design, financing, and leasing; and
. Can't explain away bad development.
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PROGRESS REPORT
Policy Implementation Assessment
The City of Chula Vista and McMillin Land Development have become willing
participants in assessing the realistic implementation of the policy goals and statements
related to the EVC as a first step in developing a stronger partnership. Both parties have
examined the policy goals through two different assessment approaches-equally useful
and appropriate. Each side reviewed the policy statements and employed a ranking
system of one to ten. The City approached the policies as a ranking of policy priorities
and conducted a three level assessment as a team. The City produced three rankings for
the policies-an overall ranking; a priority ranking of each set of policies within the
category (e.g. land uses); and a ranking of priority of the entire team by votes
individually. McMillin Land Development ranked the policies by their view of ease of
implementation-with a ranking of one being easy and of ten being difficult, if not
impossible. The charted results are located in the Appendix B.
This process provides the basis for strategic planning and implementation. Taken at face
value, the rankings highlight the areas that require further analysis and negotiation
during future planning and partnership building. By providing a base of information,
the rankings communicate the shared and differing priorities of the public and private
sector.
City Priorities
The following summary describes the overall ranking of all the policies by the City of
Chula Vista. The establishment of a light rail transit (LRT) station and right-of-way
through the EVC is a primary issue for the City. The secondary priority that relates to
this goal is the establishment of commercial and residential uses that encourage a 24-
hour environment and are located close to the LRT. The City ranked the creation of floor
area (FAR) ratios that permit "multi-storied" and "high-rise" buildings and parking
structures as important.
Other top priorities for the City focus on the desired land uses and mix. The City ranked
the development of entertainment uses as a top priority along with regional uses such as
thoroughfare commercial, visitor commercial and regionally oriented retail. Equally
important to the City is the development of a regional shopping center. Other top ranked
land uses include the development of employment related uses such as a business park,
financial and bio-medical services and research-oriented space. The remaining top ten
items are all related to design including pedestrian-friendly design, signage and graphic
continuity, building orientation and fa~de continuity.
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McMillin Land Development Concerns
McMillin Land Development approached the assessment by ranking each policy by the
level of difficulty of implementation. McMillin ranked the majority of the elements in all
categories with a level of 2 to 3 on the difficulty scale. The few areas that were
considered somewhat difficult (5 or 6) or difficult (8 or 9) related primarily to the Land
Use policy goals. The separate land use goals oflocating regional purpose facilities and
affordable housing within the development were ranked five on the scale. Additionally,
other public goals for building 2,500 high-density residential units to house a build-out
population of 6,375 were considered difficult and ranked seven on the scale. The goals of
developing an elementary school and multi-use cultural arts facilities were also ranked
difficult-eight on the scale by McMillin. The most difficult policies to implement
according to McMillin were the goals oflocating a central library, fire station and
community park within the EUC.
McMillin's concern with land use policy goals for public uses were also reflected in the
EUC Character Policies. The policy goal to locate civic and regional purpose facilities in
accordance with the siting criterion in the Facility Implementation Plan was ranked eight
on the scale by McMillin. The goal oflocating theaters and museums in prominent
locations was also considered somewhat difficult-ranked six on the scale.
McMillin listed only two of the EUC Urban Design Policies as more difficult-those
included the goals of including mid-rise buildings up to 15 stories and the goal of
creating mixed residential/commercial development. All of goals in the remaining policy
categories including Parks and Open Space Policies; other EUC policies; and Freeway
Commercial Policies were ranked within the one to three range of difficulty by McMillin.
Public-Private Differences
This first stocktaking exercise illustrates that the City and McMillin are aligned on many
of the policy goals. McMillin ranked the majority of existing policy goals within the one
to three range for ease of implementation. In each category there are some distinct
differences that reflect the policy priorities and the developer's judgment of the degree of
difficulty in meeting policy expectations. As the City and McMillin proceed with the steps
of defining a partnership, each member will need to contribute to the vision of the EUC
and the communication of clear expectations.
The goal of this exercise was to identify areas in whicl1 the City and McMillin agree and
differ on the implementation of the policies. While each player used a different
approacl1, the results are nonetheless comparable. Analysis of the results indicates that
there is high agreement on many elements-many items, which the developer considers
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easy to implement, are also high priorities for the City. The areas in which there are
differences can be divided into three categories and discussion about their differences
examined.
1. Policies that were ranked as Difficult by McMillin (7 or higher) and High Priority (7
or higher) by the City;
2. Policies that were ranked as a High Priority by the City (7 or higher) and ranked as
Medium Difficulty (5 to 7) by McMillin; and
3. Policies that were ranked as Medium Difficulty/Priority (5 to 7) by both the City and
McMillin.
1.
Policies ranked Difficult by McMillin and High Priority by the City
. 2,500 multi-family high density residential units
. Build-out population of approximately 6,375
. Multi-Use Cultural Arts Facility (including civic arts-theaters and museums)
. An Elementary School
. Community Park
. Urban Open Space Corridor
. Central Library
. Civic Centers
. Locate civic and regional purpose facilities in accordance with the siting
criterion in the Facility Implementation Plan. The Amount and size will be
determined at the SPA level.
. A variety of uses, including residential, should be incorporated within a single
structure where feasible.
. The scale of prominent buildings should be generally mid-rise, up to 15
stories.
2. Policies ranked High Priority by City and Medium Difficulty by McMillin
. The circulation system should minimize conflicts with the pedestrian system.
3. Policies ranked Medium Priority and Difficulty by the City and McMillin
. Regional Purpose Facilities
. Neighborhood Park
. Affordable Housing
. Locate theaters and museums in prominent locations, to broaden the appeal
of the EUC as a viable regional hub of cultural activity.
Each of these selected policies represent different negotiation challenges depending on
the particular policy and its difficulty and importance. Discussions can begin by
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examining the policy language and stating the nature of the priority or the reason the
policy represents difficulty.
Developing a Public-Private Partnership
Development Principles and Shared Vision
Review of policies provides a starting point for developing a shared vision statement.
Ideally, the program reflects this shared vision through the avenues of the theme
statement, program land use goals and description of the character of development. The
consulting team recommends that the City and McMillin produce a negotiated set of
development principles based upon the policy and vision as defined by the development
program. The Process should allow for flexibility and revisions to accommodate new
information.
Clear Expectations
The City and McMillin have taken a significant step forward through the process of
articulating differences and concerns during recent discussions. The consultant team
recommends that each partner articulate a set of expectations for communication,
process and performance to move forward. This report outlines a set of typical
expectations of public-private partners, which may be a starting point for a statement
from each partner. Agreed upon expectations and process ground rules are helpful
should negotiations become more difficult.
Assigning Responsibility
The development of a public-private partnership at the EUC can move into
implementation planning after the City and McMillin have negotiated differences on the
implementation of the policies. The following matrix illustrates an approach to assigning
implementation responsibilities. This table offers an approach to defining responsibility
for implementation of key policy and development goals for the EUC.
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Development Implementation Responsibility
Develonment Princinles and Policies Public Private Joint
Maximize pedestrian access .
Provide access and development integration with LRT .
stop
Promote mixed-use development with variety of land .
uses
Promote location of re2ional nurpose nubUc facilities .
Provide significant retail-commercial uses .
Promote and provide nubUc nlazas and public uses .
Define areas where develonment will be concentrated .
Provide incentives and investment for affordable
housing .
Encourage urban street scene through design and .
orientation
Develop a signage and graphic program to unify .
development
lncoroorate a pedestrian onen space/trail corridor .
Plan and mana2e narkin2 effectively .
Promote residential develonment near transit/shopping .
Provide street amenities such as naving and furnishin2s .
Integrate land uses to nromote 24 hour activity .
Design center to enhance nedestrian eXllerience .
McMillin and the City may choose to add or change this matrix.
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PROGRAMMING ASSUMPTIONS
The estimate of market potential is but one of the important factors to be taken into
consideration as planning is carried out for the EUe. Equally important is
unforeseen competition that may develop in advance of the EUe, the availability and cost
of capital as it relates to financing economically feasible development, the general
economy as it relates to job formation, in-migration and ability to purchase homes in
support of shopping and other uses, and related considerations.
The overall theme for the Eue is a mixed-use, multi-phase, public-private town center
development with an emphasis on retailing. Efforts to refine this description into
specific land use allocations are prepared on the basis of a number of interactive
assumptions. These are briefly summarized as follows:
1. That the market forecast of potential developable space will not be significantly
eroded by unforeseen and presently unidentified competition.
2. Recognition that land uses, retail in particular, will frequently change in both concept
and format. Retail themes typically last five to eight years and then change.'
3. The nationally recognized Urban Land Institute (UU) maintains that flexibility is
essential to successful development-the market (people) are demanding about how
they spend their time and dollars and reject products that do not meet their needs
and desires. Hence, flexibility to respond to changing market conditions is essential.
4. Because the Otay Ranch area is a newly emerging community, markets can be
expected to strengthen over time, which necessarily allows for the phased
introduction of certain uses.
5. Land uses will probably need to be intensified over time as the community builds
out. While the economic justification is undoubtedly lacking to initially support
parking structures, surface parking is both necessary and feasible during the early
years of development. At some point in time, given strong economic performance,
portions of the EUe may intensify with the development of parking structures,
replacement of buildings and other 'infill'. It is not advised or considered feasible to
burden the Eue in the beginning with such intensity requirements.
6. Business uses may also evolve, from individual offices, for example, to a campus style
environment.
7. Effects of a University may alter the character of Eue over time.
, For example: traditional community and regional centers have been replaced with power
centers, lifestyle centers, regional/entertainment centers, main streets, and other venues.
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Recommended Development Program and Land Use
Distribution
The recommended development program and land use distribution is shown in the
following table. The program depicts a variety of recommended land uses, to be
developed within the freeway and EVe commercial areas. An estimate ofland areas
(acreage) is assigned to the various land uses. The acreages listed in the first column
represent early estimates of developable land. Further analysis has revealed that there
will be less developable area than previously estimated. These revised areas are listed in
the second column. In the third column, the amount of land available for each land use
has been determined by applying the original ratio in the first column to the revised
areas in the second column. The fourth column further revises the area by accounting for
land that will be reserved for public uses (see next page).
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,', : ,,::c",:, .:. : ....:..,
Freeway Commercial & Eastern Urban Center
Development Program & Land Use Distribution
"d ..c ., rg =
"' ., os 0lI "d =
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Land Use
Gross Area: Free.vay 149 158
Commercial
Gross Area: EUC 295 276
I Combined Area 444 434 All Ownerships
Less major circulation 52 104 Fwy. Arterials +
Buffer
Less internal circulation 20 33 Depends on Plan
Less internal slopes 0 22 Slopes> 10'
Less East/ake Useable Area 39 0 Not included?
Less additional public uses 0 0 0 65 See estimate next
page
I Adjusted Gross 333 275 275 210
Develonment Area
Allocation of Land
Uses
Po.ver Center 80 66 50
Free.vay Oriented Food I 10 8 6 Pads near Power
Center
Free.vay Oriented Food II 10 8 6 Pads near Lodging
Regional/Entertainment Center 100 83 63 1 mil/ion S.F. GLA
Office/Business Park I 25 21 16 Employment Center
Office/Business Park II 20 17 13 Employment Center
Hotel/Motel/Meeting 13 11 8
Med/Higb Density Rental 30 25 19 Rental Apartments
Housing
Med/Higb Density O.vner 30 25 19 Variety of Housing
Housing
To.vn Center: Public/Private 15 12 9 Mixed-Use Core Area
Mixed
I Subtotal 333 275 210
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Additional Public
Uses
Community Park
Community Purposes Facility
Elementary School
Multi-Use Cultural Arts
Estimated
Area
35
10
10
Included in allocation of land uses as Town
Center
Regional Purpose Facility
Central Library, Museums
5
Included in allocation of land uses as Town
Center
Urban Open Space Corridor 5
I Subtotal 65
The program includes various residential and commercial uses. Included within the
spectrum of potential uses are:
1. A retail power center of 500,000 to 700,000 square feet of gross leasable area.
2. Clusters of food oriented retailing-one in proximity to the power center and one in
proximity to a lodging concentration.
3. A regional shopping center/entertainment center. This concept is approximately 1
million square feet in site and includes a combination of full-price stores together
with entertainment.
4. Two or more business parks are identified. These are employment centers primarily
in the form of both traditional office and technology space. Office buildings would be
a minimum of two stories but may be as high at eight to ten stories. Further, on-
going analysis will be necessary to determine specific market opportunities for later
phase mid-rise office buildings.
5. Housing can be expected to take a number of forms including a combination of
renter and owner-occupied medium and higher density dwellings. Affordable, yet
non-subsidized housing is most realistically achieved through rental housing.
Medium densities of 18 to 24 units per acre with surface parking and higher density
housing of 30 to 60 units per acre with structured parking.
6. A small town center is envisioned with a variety of land Uses. The town center would
involve a small public plaza and be connected to the regional shopping complex as
well as employment and medium and higher-density housing. Further, it is
envisioned that the town center would orient to the light rail line and therefore
support transit-oriented development.
An optional land use, but one that could have a significant impact on sales tax revenues
is an auto campus. The automobile industry is going through significant change with a
reduction in dealerships nationwide and new formats and venues for merchandising
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both new and high quality used automobiles. Otay Ranch presents an opportunity for
development of a state-of-the-art auto complex involving multiple dealerships and
supporting facilities such as food, banking, and appropriately designed and managed
support industries such as tires and accessories, bodywork and detailing, repair and
related services. Designing the auto center of the future will require additional study and
a direct involvement of the auto manufacturers and dealers.
Another alternative and interim use is a technology center involving low-density flex
space development. Moderate cost single story structures can be used as an interim use
for fifteen or so years allowing the market to "ripen" for more intensive uses that would
replace the flex structures.
Regional Center
As demonstrated in the market analysis, the estimates of short- and mid-term demand
are such that the development of a regional center is considered unlikely. At the same
time, regional centers are in the process of change. Fewer traditional regional centers
are being constructed in the United States today, a trend expected to continue. New
Super-regionals of 1.5 million square feet and larger are increasingly rare.
However, there are hybrid regional centers being developed. These are centers of a
million square feet or less, anchored by full price stores including somewhat smaller
department stores, specialty and outlet stores as well as a growing array of
'entertainment retail'. Such centers provide entertainment experiences for the entire
family along with a great variety of shopping opportunities.
Entertainment takes the form of cinema, restaurants, books, music, state-of-the-art
video arcades, and even such facilities as high quality indoor skateboard parks. By
combining a combination of traditional retail shopping (full value stores) and
entertainment, smaller regional centers are able to increase their market draw-reaching
to a population further away because of the distinct and sometimes unique combination
of activities that are offered in this new form of regionalj entertainment center.
Sales Tax Revenues
Original planning by the City of Chula Vista in approximately 1993 also made estimates
of the probable income that would derive from sales tax revenues to be paid to the City
and be reinvestment into infrastructure and other public capital investment. One of the
important targets of the public-private planning process for the EUC is to develop an
attractive and feasible urban center within realistic market conditions and identified
opportunities while attempting to generate maximum sales tax revenues in support of
the City's fiscal target. The original fiscal target was $7.82 million (1993 dollars) in
annual tax revenues at build out, based on one percent of total sales. We have forecasted
sales tax revenues estimated at $7.3 to $10.5 million annually (2000 dollars) to the City
at build out, based on the recommended development program.
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APPENDIX A
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eay Ranch Policy Implementation Assessment
Item No.
1
2
3
4
5
No.
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
e
CA TEGORY: LAND USES POLICIES
mu 1- ami y 19 ens I reSI en a um
UI -ou popu a on 0 approXlma e y ,
e910na S oppmg com p ex
u - se U fa aell me U Ing CIVIC a
theaters and museums
eglona urpose ael I es
Big 0 00 Sf
us mess Sf
ISlor ommerc18
'9
81 ransl
on
emen ry C 00
ammum a
r an pen pace orn or
en ra I rary
IVle en rs
or a e Dusmg
n e ammen ay Ig
o
our
ese 0 I ms were ongma yene.
**This category added.
CA TEGORY: EUC Character Policies
e c rae ef 0 e sue gUI eye
following elements: Location at high point in the Ota
Valley Parcel; 360 degree views to Point Lorn a and the
m cuntains
e c arae roe S ou e gUI eye
following elem ents: Synergism with adjacent villages.
especially Village Ten
Dca on a ong 19 ral ransl
cca CIVIC an reglona purpose aell es In
accordance with the siting criterion in the Facili
Implementation Plan. The Amount and size will be
determ ined at the SPA level.
e oor area ra 0 s a perml mu I-S orle
buildings, high-rise buildings and parking structures.
The exact ratio will be established at the SPA level.
oca ess In nse an uses aroun e e ges 0 e
EUC and utilize landscaped buffers of varying widths to
create a transition to surrounding villages.
n gra commerCia an resl en a uses 0 suppo
a 24-hour environment.
rea a reglona sopping comp ex cuse on major
shopping activities.
roVl e or an array 0 servlces suc as InanCla,
medical. and research-oriented facilities in office
areas.
oca e ea rs an museums In prom men oca ons,
to broaden the appeal of the EUC as a viable regional
hub of cultural activity.
nem No.
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
CA TEGORY:EUC Urban Design Policies
nan UI lOgs 0 crea a con muous acta e
pedestrian spaces. Define the pedestrian areas to
provide a continuous pedestrian experience.
mp aSlze an ur an s ee scene y oca ng
buildings at the sidewalk edge, except where creating
pedestrian oriented spaces such as patios, plazas,
malls and squares.
UI lOgs on ng on s ee or pe es Ian spaces
should contain uses that support pedestrian activities
such as dining, retail sites and entertainment, and
cultural experiences.
n IVI ua Ul lOgS or UI 109 cus ers s ou
incorporate elements of art which can be viewed and
experienced from adjacent public space.
o crea e VI I an exel em en , ac Viles s ou ow
out from buildings onto public spaces (I.e. sidewalk
cafes, street vendors, sidewalk entertainment).
Ul lOgs S ou Incorpora e eSlgn a ures W IC
complement a pedestrian scale, such as horizontal
components, overhangs, fac;ade detail, display areas,
and pedestrian seating.
UI lOgs s ou e I I an u an c ara er roug
the use of appropriate materials, textures, and scale.
e sca e 0 prom men Ul lOgS S ou e genera
mid-rise, up to 15 stories.
UI lOgS s ou ISp ay qua lies a are
characteristic of landmark architecture.
IIZ8 s ee amem es, suc as en ance s ee
paving, bollards and street furnishings, to establish
identity.
s IS View corn ors w IC cus on an connec
key visual landmarks.
romlOen yare major ac Viles no es suc as
transit stations, civic building and urban parks.
arylO9, u comp emen ary, an uses s au e
integrated to provide a mixed-use environment.
strong pedestrian connection should be created
between uses.
ncourage a ml re 0 an uses pa cu ary were
structures front a pedestrian plaza or urban park.
vane 0 uses, Inc u 109 resl en a, s au e
incorporated within a single structure where feasible.
e clrcu a on sys em s au minimize con IC WI
the pedestrian system.
EUC Recommended Development Program
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4ttay Ranch: Policy Implementation Assessment (Cont.)
e
~em No.
43
44
45
46
47
CA TEGORY: Paries and Open Space Policies
061g 0 00 par may e cons c con guaus or separa e m e
community park.
Incorporale a pedestrian open space^rail corridor (average 200 feel wide) across
the EUC which connects to Wolf Can}Qn and Sail Creek. This corridor will creale a
strong eastlwesl open space s~lem and reflect differing characteristics as i
moves through Olay Ranch. This corridor will be further defined by the overall
Ranch Design Plan. The average width of the open space^rail corridor shall be
calculated trom one edge of the ..Wage to the other.
Pro.,.;de a network. of pedestrian spaces, pla22s, malls, promenades, and squares
to crate a pedestrian oriented en'o1ronment
Individual building and building clusters should integrate pedestrian plazas with
the overall pedestrian s~tem.
Pedestrian plazas should incorporate fountains or artistic features as a visual
focus.
CA TEGORY: Other Eastern Urban Center Policies
19 -0 ~way or a ansl Ins an nSI 5 p 5 Ion WI In e an reews
Commercial hea shall be resen.ed al the SPA level and irre\Ocably offered for
46 dedication althe Tentative Map Level.
49
50
51
52
CA TEGORY: Freeway Commercial Policies
IS ca gory IOC u as reglona uses W Ie require an au mo I e onen on nea
regional transportation s~tems. Expected uses include thoroughfare commercial,
visitor commercial and regionally oriented retail commercial.
e eeway-onen e commercia area 5 a me u e uses suc as: an au cen er,
membership commercial, wholesale or outlet uses and other uses which require
directfreewaye>eposure and serve a regional market
ew op a slgnage an
eserve a pa -an -n e a
Road and SR.125.
e
eve.
e no eas In erse on 0 Ire
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APPENDIX B
EUC Recommended Development Program
Leland Consulting Group
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McMillin Team
Cinti Land Planning
2932 Poinsettia Drive
San Diego, CA 92106
Gary Cinti
(619) 223-7408
gcinti(a),oacbell.net
McMillin Companies
2727 Hoover Avenue
National City, CA 91950
(619) 477-4117
Ken Baumgartner
(619) 336-3734
kbaumgartner(a),mcmillin.com
Craig Fukuyama
(619) 336-3733
cfukuvama(a),mcmillin.com
Bob Pletcher
(619) 336-3762
boletcher(a),mcmillin.com
Leland Consulting Group
325 Northwest 22nd
Portland, OR 97210
Dave Leland
(503) 222-1600
del(a),1 elandconsulting.com
The London Group
12770 High Bluff Dr., #360
San Diego, CA 92130
Gary London
(858) 793-0048
glondon(a),londongrouo.com