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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPlanning Comm Reports/1994/10/20 October 20, 1994 TO: Planning Commission FROM: , , Bob Leiter, Director of Planning (/l / t, 1_ / SUBJECT: SANDAG Draft Series 8 Population and Housing Forecast and Land Use Distribution Element On August 15, 1994, Mayor Nader requested that the Planning Commission review the draft Series 8 Population and Housing Forecast, and the draft Land Use Distribution Element and provide comments to the City Council. On September 21, the Planning Commission and Resource Conservation Commission held a joint workshop, and heard a presentation from SANDAG staff on these two documents (attached), Following the presentation, there was discussion among the two commissions regarding the proposals, Attached is a summary of questions and comments which were brought up at the Chula Vista workshop along with similar meetings held in other cities, RECOMMENDA nON Staff recommends that the Planning Commission recommend approval of these documents to the City Council, subject to the staff comments outlined above, as well as any other comments the Commission wishes to include. DISCUSSION City staff has reviewed these documents, and has the following comments: 1) Series 8 Forecast Staff has reviewed the draft forecast in relation to previous development forecasts prepared by the City for the Growth Management Oversight Commission, the Interim SR-125 study, the Otay Ranch project review, and other relevant information. We have concluded that the proposed forecast for the existing City of Chula Vista boundary, as well as the current sphere of influence, is consistent with local forecasts and analysis. However, we are concerned that the forecast figures for the Otay Ranch area (which is shown as part of the "unincorporated area" forecast) are too high, and we are continuing to work with SANDAG and County staff to resolve these concerns, Planning Commission -2- October 20, 1994 2) Land Use Distribution Element Staff has also reviewed this document, and finds that it provides a good framework for future local planning to consider land use and transportation measures that will reduce vehicle miles travelled, mitigate air quality impacts, and reduce land consumption. However, we would like to see the report discuss the possible impacts of higher intensity development on public services (roads, schools, parks, etc.) and the need to ensure that these impacts are mitigated, It may be possible to create incentives for cities which comply with the Land Use Distribution Element, such as giving them priority in regional transportation funding or other financial programs. (F6\sandagpc.m) SaD Diego A......,.;..tinn f1l GoverameDts BOARD OF DIRECTORS July 22, 1994 AGENDA REPORT No.: 94-07.14 Action Requested: RECOMMEND APPROVAL BY THE CITIES AND THE COUNTY; APPROVE FOR USE SERIES 8 REGIONAL GROWTIl FORECAST FOR JURISDICTIONS AND OTHER COMMUNITIES Introduction The Series 8 Regional Growth Forecast is an important part of the Regional Growth Management Strategy. Like its predecessors, this Growth Forecast is used by SANDAG, its member agencies, and many other public and private sector entities in plans and studies that require population, housing and employment data. SANDAG's Regional Growth Forecast is produced in two phases. The f1J'St phase is the regionwide forecast. It produces population, housing, employment and other growth-related information for the entire San Diego region. In September 1993, the Board released the regionwide forecast __ termed the Economic Prosperity Forecast -- for review and comment and for use in the second phase of the Growth Forecast. The second phase allocates the regionwide forecast to jurisdictions, communities and other geographic areas within the region. The regionwide Economic Prosperity Forecast includes the tactics contained in the Regional Economic Prosperity Strategy designed to help solve the region's most important economic problems. It is the first forecast produced by SANDAG to include specific changes to current policies and trends related to the region's employment growth. This forecast indicates that the region's civilian employment base will grow by 359,000 jobs from 1990 to the year 2015, an increase of 32 percent. It includes an additional 59,000 jobs over an alternative regionwide forecast based primarily on recent trends. The region's population will grow by 51 percent (1.3 million persons) by the year 2015. Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounts for 52 percent of this growth while the remainder is due to people moving into the region. The Regional Growth Management Technical Committee spent a considerable amount of time and effort in working with staff during this second phase, to allocate the regionwide forecast to jurisdictions and other communities within the region. This committee is composed of planning representatives from each member agency. Tnditionally, the second phase of the Regional Growth Forecast was completed by allocating the region wide forecast based on the land use and growth policies of the region's jurisdictions. For the ftrst time, local jurisdiction plans could not accommodate the regionwide forecast; therefore, the committee looked at alternatives to the existing plans. .'1 A "quality of life" land use distribution alternative was formulated which would better manage future growth and thus accommodate the regionwide forecast to the year 2015. Implementation of this alternative would require major changes to the general and community plans and development policies of most cities and the County. These changes were viewed by the representatives of those jurisdictions as being unacceptable at this time from a local policy standpoint. As a result, staff prepared a Series 8 allocation which reflects the current land use and growth policies ofthe region's jurisdictions; however, this allocation using current policies does not accommodate the regionwide population and housing forecast beyond the year 2005. The attachment to this report shows the population, housing and employment forecast to the year 2005 for each jurisdiction and sphere of influence. It is the Regional Growth Management Technical Committee's and my RECOMMENDATION that the Board recommend that the cities and the County approve the Series 8 Regional Growth Forecast to the year 2005 for inclusion in the Regional Growth Management Str.itegy and that this forecast be approved for use in planning and other studies. It is further recommended that the actions contained in the Land Use Distribution Element be used to solve the problems identified by the Series 8 forecast. Discussion The Series 8 Regional Growth Forecast is a result of a cooperative effort among the cities and the county. It shows the likely distribution of 3.0 million people and 1.24 million jobs throughout the region in the year 2000 and 3.28 million people and 1.37 million jobs in the year 2005. The forecast for jurisdictions and other communities reflects the current public policies contained in the local agencies' general and community plans. Some of the uses of the Regional Growth Forecast are shown below. . City, county, community, and, capital facilities planning . Planning by special pUIpose agencies and districts and the private sector in the prepamtion of development plans, business plans, and environmental impact reports . All SANDAG studies and plans described in the Overall Work Program, including the evaluation of elements of the Regional Growth Management Strategy . Preparation of federal and state gnnt applications by local agencies for population-serving public facilities Several problems were identified during the second phase of the forecast. The regionwide Economic Prosperity Forecast released by the Board extended to the year 2015. In attempting 2 , , to distribute the growth beyond the year 2005, the region is confronted with something that has never occurred in the 20-p1us years that SANDAG has been producing growth forecasts: A forecast based on currently adopted general and community plans runs out of land planned for urban residential development. In the year 2005, only 14,000 vacant urban residential acres remain in the region. All of this land and more is needed to accommodate the region's forecasted growth beyond the year 2005. Attempting to distribute forecasted growth beyond the year 2005 would cause unrealistically high levels of development in the outlying areas of the region and would not preserve enough vacant urban residential land needed for habitat conservation. The issues identified in this report are medium to 10ng term in nature. However, this Series 8 forecast illustrates that implementation of our current general and community plans will result in some problems for us in the years ahead. The Regional Growth Management Strategy identifies solutions to the problems resulting from the region's growth. The Land Use Distribution Element of the Strategy (Agenda Report #15) contains recommendations designed to correct these problems. If adopted as policy by the cities and County, these recommendations will be reflected in future Regional Growth Forecasts. A forecast beyond the year 2005 is needed for transportation and other studies. Staff will work with the Growth Management Committee to prepare this technical forecast. KENNETII E. SULZER Executive Director In Attachment Key Staff Contact: Jeff Tayman, 595-5374 Funds are Budgeted in Overall Work Program #102.07 3 TOTAL POPULATION: JURISDICTIONS AND SPHERES OF INFLUENCE This forecast is subject to change. The numbers have not been adopted 1990 - 2005 1990-2005 or endorsed and should be used with that understandi"". Chance Avg. Annual Jurisdiction 1990 2000 2005 Absolute Percent % Chanae Carls bad 63,126 93,134 106,420 43,294 68.6%1 3.6% Chula Vista 135,163 162,201 164,744 29,581 21.9% 1.3% Coronado 26,540 29,096 29,016 2,476 9.3% 0.6% DelMar 4,860 5,477 5,409 549 11.3% 0.7% EI Cajon 88,693 95,694 95,109 6,416 7.2% 0.5% Encinitas 55,386 63,152 64,914 9,528 17.2% 1.1% Escondida , 108,635 131,371 137,639 29,004 26.7% 1.6% Imperial Beach 26,512 30,184 31,107 4,595 17.3% 1.1% La Mesa 52,931 58,615 58,738 5,807 11.0% 0.7% Lemon Grove 23,984 26,994 27,432 3,448 14.4% 0.9% National City 54,249 58,493 59,987 5,738 10.6% 0.7% Oceanside 128,398 161,368 169,257 40,859 31.8% 1.9% Poway 43,516 50,721 51,028 1,512 17.3% 1.1% San Diego 1,110,549 1,293,018 1,410,138 299,589 27.0% 1.6% San Marcos 38,974 66,108 80,278 41,304 106.0% 5.0% Santee 52,902 62,602 67,298 14,396 21.2% 1.6% Solana Beach 12,962 14,653 14,382 1,420 11.0% 0.1% Vista 11,872 86,100 88,783 16,911 23.5% 1.4% Unincorporated Area 398,764 513,175 611,206 218,442 54.8% 3.0% San Diego Region 2,498,016 3,002,162 3,278,885 780,869 31.3% 1.8% 1990 - 2005 1990-2005 Chance Avg. Annual Schere of Influence 1990 2000 2005 Absolute Percent % Chanae Chula Vista 148,483 186,249 200,411 51 ,928 35.0% 2.0% EI Cajon 104,416 112,553 112,214 7,798 7.5% 0.5% Encinitas 55,544 63,434 66,404 10,860 19.6% 1.2% Escondida 126,791 153,997 163,602 36,805 29.0% 1.7% National City 56,225 60,585 62,023 5,798 10.3% 0.7% Poway 43,664 51,015 51 ,323 7,659 11.5% 1.1% San Marcos 43,795 72,225 81,100 43,305 98.9% 4.7% Vista 84,932 102,011 106,626 21,694 25.5% 1.5% Attachment SERIES 8 RE. .ONA.L GROWTH FORECA.ST '990-2005 EXISTING POLICIES ALTERNATIVE (July 1994) SANDAG 401 B STREET, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 (619) 595-5300 Sources: 1990 Census of Population and Housing; Series 8 Regional Growth Forecast. SANDAG 4 07/12/94 SERIES 8 RrlONAL GROWTH FORECAS"'--1990-2005 EXISTING POLICIES ALTERNATIVE (July 1994) . . TOTAL HOUSING UNITS: JURISDICTIONS AND SPHERES OF INFLUENCE This forecast is subject to change. The numbers have not been adopted 1990 - 2005 1990-2005 or endorsed and should be used with that understandinc. Chanoe Avg. Annual Jurisdiction 1990 2000 2005 Absolute Percent I % Change Carlsbad 27,235 38,073 44,754 17,519 64.3% . 3.4% Chula Vista 49,849 56,004 57,999 8,150 16.3% 1.0% Coronado 9,145 9,669 9,828 683 1.5% 0.5% DelMar 2,514 2,565 2,581 67 2.7% 0.2% EI Cajon 34,453 34,963 35,084 631 1.8% 0.1% Encinitas 22,123 23,587 24,596 2,473 11.2% 0.7% Escondida 42,040 47,697 51,035 8,995 21.4% 1.3% Imperial Beach 9,525 10,041 10,570 1,045 11.0% 0.7% La Mesa 24,154 24,838 25,151 997 4.1% 0.3% Lemon Grove 8,638 9,106 9,447 809 9.4% 0.6% National City 15,243 15,824 16,674 1,431 9.4% 0.6% Oceanside 51,109 59,611 63,925 12,816 25.1% 1.5% Poway 14,386 15,944 16,423 2,037 14.2% 0.9% San Diego 431,722 472,771 527,904 96,182 22.3% 1.4% San Marcos 14,476 22,818 28,608 14,132 91.6% 4.7% Santee 18,215 20,496 22,380 4,105 22.5% 1.4% Solana Beach 6,346 6,456 6,478 132 2.1% 0.1% Vista 27,418 30,765 32,508 5,090 18.6% 1.1% Unincorporated Area 137,589 169,062 209,589 72,000 52.3% 2.9% San Diego Region 946,240 1,070,290 1,195,534 249,294 26.3% 1.6% 1990 - 2005 1990 - 2005 Chanoe Avg. Annual Sohere of Influence 1990 2000 2005 Absolute Percent % Change / - Chula Vista 54,357 1 /:Ic'" 63,473 11'-1/ 69,119 14,762 27.2% 1.6% ,?Y 874 2.2% EI Cajon 40,615 41,198 v 41,489 0.1% Encinitas 22,182 23,702 25,365 3,183 14.3% 0.9% Escondida 48,209 54,983 59,618 11 ,409 23.7% 1.4% National City 15,850 16,431 17,281 1,431 9.0% 0.6% Poway 14,443 16,031 16,521 2,018 14.4% 0.9% San Marcos 17,161 25,927 32,114 14,947 81.1% 4.3% Vista 32,061 36,082 38,579 6,518 20.3% 1.2% SANDAG 401 B STREET, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 (619) 595-5300 Sources: 1990 Census of Population and Housing; Series 8 Regional Growth Forecast. SANDAG 07/12/94 5 SERIES 8 REGl.QNAL GROWTH FORECAST, 1.990-2005 EXISTIN6 POLICIES ALTERNATIVE (Jul~ .994) TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: JURISDICTIONS AND SPHERES OF INFLUENCE This forecast is subject to change. The numbers have not been adopted 1990 - 2005 1990-2005 or endorsed and should be used with that understandinc. Chanoe Avg. Annual Jurisdiction 1990 2000 2005 Absolute Percent I % Chance Carlsbad 35,023 37,109 44,874 9,851 28.1% 1.7% Chula Vista 50,777 52,321 57,823 7,046 13.9% 0.9% Coronado 33,325 33,593 33,794 469 1.4% 0.1% DelMar 3,809 3,195 3,798 -11 -0.3% -0.0% EI Cajon 43,305 42,611 45,496 2,191 5.1% 0.3% Encinitas 23,858 23,912 25,393 1,535 6.4% 0.4% Escondida 41,557 47,189 53,230 5,673 11.9% 0.8% Imperial Beach , 3,849 4,019 4,212 363 9.4% 0.6% La Mesa 26,848 26,793 28,419 1,571 5.9% 0.4% Lemon Grove 7,972 8,059 8,463 491 6.2% 0.4% National City 31,913 32,094 33,880 1,967 6.2% 0.4% Oceanside 33,128 35,694 44,077 10,949 33.1% 1.9% Poway 12,068 13,478 17,156 5,088 42.2% 2.4% San Diego 678,651 682,641 739,884 61,233 9.0% 0.6% San Marcos 25,289 26,847 32,129 6,840 27.0% 1.6% Santee 16,161 16,600 18,771 2,610 16.1% 1.0% Solana Beach 8,293 8,308 8,727 434 5.2% 0.3% Vista 21,191 22,696 28,114 6,923 32.7% 1.9% Unincorporated Area 120,850 124,830 141,947 21,097 17.5% 1.1% San Diego Region 1,223,867 1,243,195 1,370,187 146,320 12.0% 0.8% 1990 - 2005 1990-2005 Chanoe Avg. Annual Sohere of Influence 1990 2000 2005 Absolute Percent % Chanae Chula Vista 53,089 54,998 60,834 7,145 14.6% 0.9% EI Cajon 47,461 46,631 49,859 2,398 5.1% 0.3% Encinitas 24,486 24,537 26,040 1,554 6.3% 0.4% Escondido 51,050 51,137 56,891 5,841 11.4% 0.7% National City 32,121 32,306 34,092 1,965 6.1% 0.4% poway 12,068 13,478 17,156 5,088 42.2% 2.4% San Marcos 26,998 28,493 33,828 6,830 25.3% 1.5% Vista 24,670 26,022 31,589 6,919 28.0% 1.7% SANDAG 401 B STREET, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 (619) 595-5300 Sources: Employment Estimates, EDD (released 3/92); Series 8 Regional Growth Forecast, SANDAG 07/12/94 6 San Diego Accnr;"tinn 01 GoVa1UDaats BOARD OF DIRECTORS July 22, 1994 AGENDA REPORT No.: 94-07.1 5 Action Requested: RECOMMEND APPROVAL BY THE CITIES AND THE COUNTY LAND USE DISTRIBUTION ELEMENT OF TIlE REGIONAL GROWTII MANAGEMENT STRATEGY Introduction The Regional Growth Management Strategy gives local jurisdictions and other agencies the forum to work together to manage the region's growth. The Land Use Distribution Element of the strategy identifies the things they can do together to make travel more convenient within and between communities. In addition, by increasing the intensity of new development in areas with good transit service, the Element would accommodate projected growth and preserve regional open space, problems identified in the Series 8 growth forecasts. The Land Use Distribution Element establishes access standards -- maximum travel times and distances n to measure travel convenience in the region. To improve the convenience of travel, the Element addresses design, intensity and distribution of uroan communities. The Element defIDes the relationship of the region's communities to the planned transportation system, most importantly, the growing transit system. The Land Use Distribution Element was prepared by the Regional Growth Management Technical Committee. The Element was evaluated as part of the regional growth forecasting process and during the preparation of the Regional Transportation Plan (adopted in February 1994). It is the Committee's and my RECOMMENDATION that the Board of Directors recommend that the cities and the County: a. approve the Land Use Distribution Element, and b. implement the land use actions through changes in their general and community plans. Discussion -. Implementation of the Land Use Distribution Element would provide the region's residents the options needed to change their travel behavior over time. It would restructure growth to improve the region's quality of life as described in the Regional Growth Management Strategy. The Element achieves its goals by: 1. focusing new growth within walking distance of major transit services, 2. providing mixed-use districts as the centers of the region's communities, 3. providing residential uses within major employment areas, and 4. providing safe and convenient pedestrian and bicycle access. By implementing the Land Use Distribution Element, the cities and the County would reduce daily vehicle trips by 427,000 in the year 2015, daily vehicle miles of travel by 4,043,000, and increase daily transit ridership by 28,000 when compared with existing general and community plans. Most of the region's residents would travel shorter distances in less time to get to jobs, shopping and services. The forecasted consumption of vacant land could be reduced by more than 80,000 acres. This decrease would be achieved primarily by increasing the average density of newly developing and redeveloping residential land from 5.9 housing units per acre to 6.6 units per acre. The Land Use Distribution Element was prepared by the Technical Committee to address the jobs/housing balance in the region, as required by the Regional PIanning and Growth Control Measure (Proposition C of 1988). Jobs/housing balance is addressed by establishing maximum travel time and distance (or access) standards for the home to work trip. The Element also addresses access to shopping and services because these types of trips represent the great majority of daily travel. The goals, objectives, policies, and actions of the Land Use Distribution Element, which also was designed as the region's Indirect Source Control program required by the California Clean Air Act, are described in the attachment. Implementation by the cities and the County would be reported and monitored through the Regional Growth Management Strategy self-certification process. KENNETII E. SULZER Executive Director Attachment Key Staff Contact: George Franck, 595-5378 Funds are budgeted in Overall Work Program #105.15 2 Attachment LAND USE DISTRIBUTION ELEMENT REGIONAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY July 22, 1994 The purpose of the Regional Growth Management Strategy is to identify the actions we should take to protect and improve our quality of life. Private and public sector actions should help make life in this growing region more convenient for all of us, and help us do the right thing for the region and all of its inhabitants. , The Land Use Distribution Element addresses the location, intensity and design of urban communities, and the relationship of these communities to the planned transportation system. The intent of this element is to improve the region's planning process and to provide guidelines for changes in the cities' and the County's general and community plans. Over time, these changes would provide the option for the region's residents to change their travel behavior. These changes would also allow the region to accommodate its anticipated population growth over the next 20 years. GOALS The following Goals are established for the Land Use Distribution Element: MAXIMIZE ACCESS TO JOBS, SHOPPING AND SERVICES - AS MEASURED IN TRAVEL TIME, COST AND DISTANCE - THROUGH THE DISTRIBUTION AND DESIGN OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. PROVIDE SUFFICIENT URBAN LAND TO ACCOMMODATE FORECASTED POPULATION GROWTH WHILE PRESERVING ADEQUATE LAND FOR OPEN SPACE. INTRODUCTION During the 1980's, travel in metropolitan areas grew so quickly that today, numerous federal and state laws and regulations ~uire local governments and regional agencies to deal directly with traffic congestion and the land use patterns which help create that congestion. California law now ~uires the adoption of a Congestion Management Program (CMP) at the regional level. The CMP establishes minimum service levels on freeways and major roads, and ~uires local agencies to take direct action to maintain mobility in their jurisdictions. Both state and federal law ~uire local and regional agencies to prepare and implement plans to improve air quality through controls on automobile travel. 3 .. In addition, the California Clean Air Act requires an "Indirect Source Control Program" to minimize air pollution through land use actions. The best way to implement such a program is to build in long term land use changes in the general plans of local jurisdictions. This Land Use Distribution Element is designed to help create these long term changes and, therefore, to serve as the region's Indirect Source Control Program. The conventional way in which we locate our homes, businesses and public buildings has been a major contributor to traffic congestion and poor air quality. Further, the design of our newer neighborhoods has also forced most of us to make nearly all of our trips, and our children's trips, by car. Congestion could be reduced if there were a better balance of jobs and housing in each community, or if, by some other means, we could make travel easier. On average, the work trip is the longest daily trip which most of us make. But work trips represent only about 20% of the trips made on a normal work day, and nearly half of these work trips are made during off-peak periods. While a community balance of jobs and appropriately priced housing could lessen congestion, this balance would not solve all of the mobility problems we face. To address the full range of mobility needs, the Land Use Distribution Element addresses shopping and service trips as well as work trips. In addition, the currently adopted general and community plans do not accommodate the region's projected residential growth beyond the year 2005. Most of the land planned for urban residential use would be developed by the year 2005 under current plans, leaving very few acres available for habitat conservation and regional recreation uses. SUMMARY OF THE LAND USE DISTRIBUTION ELEMENT This Land Use Distribution Element includes goals, objectives, policies, and actions to help the region accommodate the forecasted population growth and improve traffic congestion and air quality. The regional access objectives, shown in Table A, define a maximum acceptable travel time and distance for work trips, as well as those other trips which are made to satisfy our shopping, recreation and service needs. The transportation elements of the Regional Growth Management Strategy already identify many of the actions needed to help meet the access objectives. These include new and improved facilities identified in the Regional Transportation Plan, and congestion management initiatives identified in the region's Congestion Management Program. In addition, adopted air quality Transportation Control Measures include programs which will help create alternatives to single- occupant automobile travel. Improvements to the transportation system alone will not allow us to meet the regional access objectives. Land use actions are needed, too. Therefore, the Land Use Distribution Element recommends that new office, residential and other development be focused around rail transit stations and in major bus corridors. By focusing development in mixed use centers, more trips will be able to be made by transit, walking and bicycling. Local trips can be consolidated, the 4 potential use of shoner-range alternative fuel vehicles can be increased and some trips can be eliminated through the increased use of electronic travel substitutes. Appropriate design is required to make the focusing of development work. Therefore, the Land Use Distribution Element recommends the preparation of design guidelines which identify desirable design characteristics of development, buildings and public facilities (including streets, sidewalks and bicycle routes). Existing employment areas, which are outside of potential transit focus areas, also should be planned to include a residential element. As long as environmental conditions do not prevent residential uses, major employment areas should accommodate appropriately priced housing and suppon facilities to meet the needs of some of the employees working in these areas. The streets within these employment areas should provide for transit, bicycle and pedestrian circulation as well as automobile travel. With increased intensities and mixed-use development in transit focus areas, the land proposed for urbanization in current general and community plans would more than accommodate the projected population growth. Vacant land also would remain for regional recreation and natural habitat preservation. The concepts contained in this Land Use Distribution Element were evaluated as a part of the regional growth forecasting process. This evaluation indicated that, when compared with adopted general and community plans, the implementation of these concepts would require the use of significantly fewer acres of vacant land to accommodate the region's forecasted population growth. It also would reduce both the number of trips made in the region and the total volume of automobile travel, as well as provide some improvement in air quality. The Land Use Distribution Element would help the region achieve its quality of life standards and objectives for transponation, air quality, access, and open space. The ideas contained in this strategy are not new. They are an integral part of the adopted Otay Ranch Plan, MTDB's Transit Development Guidelines, the County's Transponation Demand Management Program and the City of San Diego's Land Guidance Program. 5 OBJECTIVES Objective 1: Average travel times and distances for home-based trips in all parts of the region should be no greater than those shown in Table A. TABLE A REGIONAL ACCESS OBJECTIVES AREAlTravel Mode TRAVEL TIME TRAVEL DISTANCE Minutes Miles URBAN AREAS Work Other Work Other Automobile 19 10 10.6 5.1 Transit 50 35 11.0 7.5 RURAL AREAS Automobile 60 20 19.4 12.0 In addition to the quality of life standards and objectives that have been adopted for transportation and air quality, the Land Use Distribution Element establishes access objectives for maximum average travel times and distances for work trips and other trips from or to the home. Objectives are provided for both transit and automobile trips in urban areas and for automobile trips in rural areas. The access objectives in Table A are based on forecasted 2015 travel times and distances for the urban and rural zones shown on Figure 1. The travel time and distance are based on approximately 60% of the zones meeting the objectives if the region developed under current general plan and transportation policies. The policies and actions in this Land Use Distribution Element are designed to help the entire region achieve these access objectives within the 2D-year time-frame of the Regional Transportation Plan and regional growth forecasts. Achievement of these objectives would ensure that all residents of the region would have equitable access to jobs, shopping and services regardless of where they live. Because of multiple-worker households, home ownership or other factors, some of the region's residents will continue to commute long distances. Individual mismatches of jobs and housing will inevitably occur; however, the opportunity would exist to work, shop and receive services near home. 6 ....c:z It) - ~~ II) II) ~z CD II: ..101 CD 8 o!<~ ~ ~ iE r..~ c e II:N' iS~~ ~ :> OCJ i J<8 N :J a: ...~t:. filiI/) i~ DO >111 =>cz CII~O ii: N 7 Objective 2: Adequate vacant land should be preserved to accommodate habitat conservation areas and a full range of open space opportunities. The Open Space Element of the Regional Growth Management Strategy is being prepared based on the need for recreation areas as well as natural habitat preservation. A policy and actions promoting Sensitive Lands and Open Space Preservation and Protection were adopted as a part of the Phase 1 Regional Growth Management Strategy in 1993. This policy is being refined, and additional actions will be proposed as part open space planning efforts. Habitat conservation plans are being prepared based on an extensive data collection, mapping and evaluation effort. Although many general and community plans preserve a portion of the existing habitat areas, it is anticipated that the habitat plans will require additional preservation of land planned for urbanization. Additional land also should be reserved for other open space needs identified in SANDAG's open space planning studies. Once these plans are defined, this goal can be quantified. POLICIES Land use policies will help the region achieve the goals and objectives of the Land Use Distribution Element. In addition, related transportation Policies also will be needed if the objectives are to be realized. Land Use Policies: The following land use policies, if implemented by the cities and the County, would result in a better balance of residential, employment, commercial and institutional uses in the region's major travel corridors. Implementation of these policies would make it easier for the region's residents to avoid unnecessary travel and would help preserve an adequate amount of vacant land for habitat preservation and recreation. 1. Transportation facilities should be designed to meet the needs of pedestrians and bicycle riders as well as automobile drivers. Circulation Elements of local general plans should emphasize pedestrian and bicycle facilities for trips within communities. Direct pedestrian access should be provided to transit stations and within transit corridors. Street design can playa significant role in increasing pedestrian, bicycle and transit trips throughout the region. In transit focus areas, pedestrian travel should receive priority. To make walking easier, major streets in all areas should be as narrow as possible, while still accommodating emergency vehicle, bus and automobile circulation. The provision of medians on major streets is another way to facilitate pedestrian movement. Local general and community plans should also provide for streets and roads which connect communities, reducing the need to use the region's freeways for relatively short 8 trips. These local streets and roads also facilitate more direct automobile and bus transit access. 2. Higher land use intensities should be located in transit access areas. The highest employment intensities and residential densities permitted in the region should be located in major bus transit corridors (Figure 2) and within walking distance - about 1/4 mile - of planned rail transit stations (Figure 3). To insure sufficient ridership potential in major bus transit corridors and near the stations, a minimum average net density of 20 housing units per acre is desirable. Within a quarter mile of rail transit stations, average employment intensities should be at least 60 workers per acre (a floor area ratio of approximately 0.50). In major bus corridors, average employment intensities should be at least 45 workers per acre (a floor area ratio of approximately 0.35). Where current economic conditions do not permit development at these intensities, site plans should be designed to allow for a higher density on the project site in the future. For example, surface parking could be planned for future conversion to structured parking and additional economic uses, including housing. Implementation of this action would require most jurisdictions to change their general or community plans. Outside of downtown San Diego and several other major activity centers, the employment intensities proposed in general and community plans are relatively low. This intensification could occur either by (a) a balance for the lowering of proposed intensities in areas that are not served by a high level of transit service to balance intensities or (b) increasing the permitted amount of development in a jurisdiction. The second of these alternatives is preferable if the second regional objective (of open space preservation) is to be achieved. However, local jurisdictions should make this decision based on the needs of the community. 3. Mixed-use development should be encouraged in community center areas, Including the areas surrounding rail transit stations and within the bus transit corridors. Within the transit focus areas, a higher intensity mix of residential, employment, shopping and service uses should be required. Allowing residential uses above the ground floor also should be considered for existing commercial areas. These mixed-use areas will permit many of the local trips to be made by foot or bicycle, and will make pedestrian access to transit stops more convenient. 9 ~ ~ Camp hndleton Figure 2 8US TRANSIT FOCUS AREAS _ e.. Iorv"" Comdot'o . T_ Centaro \ 0, . . 3 MILES . Tllulna..C. i ~_ Die,. ASSOCIATION OF GO\'ERNMENTS "-' ..... 10 ---.--/ ~ Camp PMd.ton ~' " Figure 3 RAIL TRANSIT FOCUS AREAS . _ _. -1Ieg1ono1 Tro.." CorrtcIoro o _ _.. Potential Tro.." ConIcIoro . , MILES . ~ Son Dlqo , . ASSOClA nON OF GO\'"ERmIENTS _,I,C. 6 ~:I 11 Mixed use development also is appropriate for community centers which are outside of the transit focus areas, because it provides the opportunity to consolidate trips and encourages walking trips. These community center areas are located in several of the suburban cities, as well as rural communities. As these centers intensify and add residential uses, they may become appropriate locations for future transit facilities. It is recognized that not all transit stations are suitable for higher intensity, mixed use development. For example, a rail station located within the influence area of an airport may have intensity limits that are below those recommended in this Element. Similarly, some station areas may not be suitable for residential development because of noise impacts from aiIports or from adjacent freeway facilities. , 4. A mix of housing types and prices should be provided within walking distance of transit stations and in transit corridors. This mix of housing should include small-lot single family units, town houses and apartments. This mix would provide for a range of housing opportunities in each community, and help each jurisdiction achieve the goals in the Regional Housing Needs Statement. The higher density, more affordable housing in the transit corridors would be balanced against the larger lot developments located farther from the station. S. More intensively used public facilities should be located near transit stations and stops, within walking or biking distance of the communities they serve. Libraries, urban parks, hospitals, churches and most civic buildings are examples of more intensively used public facilities. The location of the more intensively used public facilities in the denser areas near high level transit service will increase the opportunity for people to travel to these facilities by walking, riding a bike and transit. In rural areas, this type of public facility should also be located within commercial centers. Public facilities which require more land, such as schools and active recreation sites, should be located near the edges of the mixed-use transit focus areas, adjacent to lower density residential uses. 6. Parking requirements should be reduced within transit focus areas, with on-street parking provided in the mixed-use community core areas, whenever possible. In anticipation of decreased automobile use, the lowering of parking requirements should be considered in coordination with the adoption of transportation demand management programs. The lower parking requirement would lower costs and provide an incentive to develop near the transit stations and in transit corridors. On-street parking in the transit focus areas helps to create a more walkable environment by separating the pedestrian from vehicular traffic. When on-street parking is not possible, pedestrians should be separated from vehicular traffic by landscaping or other suitable barrier. 12 7. Residential uses should be incorporated into existing employment areas that are located outside of tbe transit focus areas. Local general and community plans should permit appropriately sited residential uses within large employment areas that are not provided with a high level of transit service, unless potential environmental hazards exist. An objective of providing housing for the workers employed in the area should be established in the general planning process. The potential price range of this housing should be based on the types of employment in the area. The general plan also should ensure the adequate provision of public facilities, including schools and recreation areas. 8. Design guidelines should be used to encourage the development of transit- and pedestrian-friendly communities. Local jurisdictions should adopt design guidelines for new and redeveloping areas. These guidelines should emphasize non-automobile travel, permitting more convenient access by pedestrians, bicyclists and transit riders. It is expected that these guidelines will be based on the extensive planning work already completed by several local jurisdictions in the region. Model guidelines could be developed by the Regional Growth Management Technical Committee, if needed. While design guidelines are needed most in the transit focus areas, they also should address the design of lower density areas as well. In the areas surrounding the transit focus areas (between one-quarter and two miles from transit stations or major bus corridors), pedestrian and bicycle linkages also are needed. These linkages would provide for both internal circulation and access to the transit focus areas. Even in rural communities, appropriate design would reduce the need for automobile travel. 9. Lower land use intensities should be located in areas with low levels of transit services or no transit services. In areas that are not proposed for a high level of transit service, higher intensity development should be discouraged. For example, new development on conventional single family lots should be located beyond walking distance of rail transit stations or major bus corridors. In auto-oriented areas, intensities should be established that will not diminish highway levels of service below those adopted in the Regional Growth Management Strategy and Congestion Management Program, (see page 12 and 13). Particularly for employment areas, local agencies should review proposed intensities of areas that are not in transit focus areas. Many of the planned employment areas in the region have low development intensities and therefore are difficult to serve with transit. In those areas, employment intensities should be reduced to a level that would not have an adverse impact on the region's highway system or proposed land uses should be changed to permit an appropriate level of residential development. 13 Transit corridor planning considers, and should continue to consider, the location of major activity centers within the region. High levels of transit service should not be planned for open space and sensitive habitat areas. Related Transportation Policies In order to achieve the access objectives of the Land Use Distribution Element, a combination of land use and transportation policies and actions will be required. In addition to the land use policies listed above, a range of transportation agency policies and actions also are important in improving travel time. The following policies are drawn from other elements of the Regional Growth Management Strategy and the Regional Transportation Plan. Actions to implement these policies also are contained in those elements or the Regional Transportation Plan. The related transportation policies are listed below to acknowledge the important relationship of land use and transportation programs in achieving regional objectives. 1. Traffic flow improvements. Through the adoption of the Transportation Control Measures (TCM) Plan, the region has committed to making a substantial improvement in the optimization of traffic signals to reduce congestion, energy use and improve air quality. Approximately half of the region's 2,000 signals have been coordinated or optimized through an existing State- funded program, with all signals scheduled for optimization by the year 2000. Traffic flow improvements are the most cost-effective TCM evaluated as part of the air quality planning program. Because they tend to decrease travel times, they are criticized for potentially increasing trip distances and even inducing additional automobile trips. Nevertheless, traffic flow improvements are included in the Air Quality TCM's and Congestion Management Plan. 2. Transit improvements and expansion. This measure expands the 20-year Regional Transportation Plan and the seven-year Short Range Transit Plans of the region's two transit development boards. The measure consists of the conversion of the current bus fleet to low emission vehicles, the expansion of bus services, and the expansion of the rail transit services. The lack of operating funds for transit service expansion remains a major problem in the implementation of this policy. 3. Transportation System Management (priority treatments). Transit will be given priority as a part of the proposed traffic flow improvements through traffic signal preemption, signal timing and the designation of special lanes for transit use. Within the transit focus areas, traffic flow improvements should include the consideration of pedestrian and bicycle travel. On many freeways and some arterial 14 streets, High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes will decrease travel times for transit riders and carpool users. These priority treatments are included in the Regional Transportation Plan, Air Quality TCM's and Congestion Management Plan. 4. Telecommuting, home-based shopping and other technological alternatives to the single-occupant automobile trip. Electronic communication provides a convenient alternative to many of the work, shopping and service trips which most people make today. Alternatives to physical travel should be encouraged, but specific governmental action is not recommended at this time. Telecommuting is a permitted tactic in the regional trip reduction program which is part of the TCM Plan. 5. Market-based strategies to reduce automobile travel. Strategies that require auto drivers to pay more of the true cost of automobile travel should result in shorter trips for employment, shopping and services. As part of the Air Quality TCM's, SANDAG has adopted mileage- and pollution-based vehicle registration fees as the region's primary "market-based" strategy for decreasing automobile travel. Increased registration fees effectively increase the cost of automobile travel for the region's residents, encouraging them to find alternative travel modes. Market-based strategies are being evaluated through a Statewide study. The Transportation Control Measures Plan will be reviewed periodically and when other options are available, such as market-based measures, it can be revised accordingly. ACTIONS The following actions would implement the land use distribution policies listed above (policies 1-9). Actions to implement the related transportation policies are contained in the Regional Transportation Plan and other elements of the Regional Growth Management Strategy. These actions also will help monitor the achievement of the two objectives of the Land Use Distribution Element. The "Transit Focus Areas" identified in the following actions are defined as areas with a high level of transit service. These areas include major bus corridors (shown in Figure 2) and areas within walking distance of existing and planned rail transit stations (shown in Figure 3 as Regional Transit Corridors - Station Areas). Figure 3 also identifies "Potential Transit Corridors - Station Areas" referred to in action 10. Cities and the County 1. During the comprehensive update of the land use, open space and transportation elements of general or community plans, the cities and the County will: 15 a. consider at least one alternative that would increase the intensity of development in the transit focus areas, b. consider at least one alternative that would encourage the development of mixed- use community cores in the transit focus areas and other community centers, c. consider at least one alternative that would decrease moderate and high intensity development in areas which are not located in transit focus areas, d. consider at least one alternative that would encourage the development of housing and appropriate support facilities in employment areas of more than 1,000 acres, . and e. adopt all reasonable changes to bring their updated general and community plan elements into conformance with the Land Use Distribution Element, provided that adequate public facilities (including schools and local parks) are available or programmed to support these changes. 2. The cities and the County will encourage the implementation of the Land Use Distribution Element through the discretionary review of projects required by existing plans and ordinances. 3. The cities and the County, with the assistance of SANDAG, will evaluate the potential impacts of land use alternatives that increase intensities and encourage mixed use communities in the transit focus areas. 4. The cities and the County will monitor the consumption of total vacant land and vacant land with high habitat value within its jurisdiction. S. In implementing their general and community plans, the cities and the County will consider zoning classifications and subdivision regulations that encourage mixed use developments and higher intensities in transit focus areas and other community core areas. 6. In implementing their general and community plans, the cities and the County will consider changes to their street and road standards that are consistent with the policies of this Land Use Distribution Element. 7. In implementing their general and community plans, the cities and the County will prepare or consider changes to their design guidelines for development that are consistent with the policies of this Land Use Distribution Element. San Diego Association of Governments 8. SANDAG will monitor the average travel times and distances for the 15 Travel Corridor Zones. 16 " , , 9. SANDAG will provide the cities and the County with model zoning codes, design guidelines, subdivision ordinances and street design guidelines which are in conformance with the Land Use Distribution Element policies. Transit Development Boards, SANDAG, the County, and Affected Cities 10. The transit development boards, SANDAG and the affected cities will evaluate the potential of transit service improvements in conjunction with increased land use intensities and mixed-use development in the five potential regional transit corridors identified in Figure 3. 11. The County and affected cities will complete the multiple species habitat conservation plans and incorporate those plans into the general and community plans. 17. MAJOR QUESTIONS Regional Growth Forecast and Land Use Distribution Element October 13, 1994 IS THE SERIES 8 REGIONWIDE GROWTH FORECAST ACCURATE? WHAT LAND USE POLICIES SHOULD BE USED TO ACCOMMODATE THE FORECASTED GROWTH? CAN THE REGION ACCOMMODATE ANTICIPATED GROWTH AND THE REQUIREMENTS OF A NATURAL HABITAT PRESEERVE SYSTEM'] HOW CAN WE PROVIDE ADEQUATE LOCAL FACILITIES TO SERVE EXISTING AND FUTURE POPULATION? WHAT CAN BE DONE IF VOTER-APPROVED GROWTH ORDINANCES RESTRICT GENERAL PLAN CHANGES? WHAT IS THE FISCAL IMPACT ON CITIES AND THE COUNTY OF PLANNING FOR ADDmONAL RESIDENTIAL GROWTH IN PLACE OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTll? INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS Regional Growth Forecast and Land Use Distribution Element October 10, 1994 REGIONWIDE FORECAST What is the accuracy of previous SANDAG forecasts? (SD/ffi/DM) SANDAG's forecast is too high because of current economic conditions? (DMlffi/CPC) What is the impact of the recession on the forecast? (IB) The Economic Prosperity forecast is not based in reality. (IB) Forecasts are self-fulfilling prophesies. (IB) Citizens don't want growth. (V) How is illegal immigration handled? (IB) Population growth is primarily the result of employment growth. (CV) The type of employment growth is important. (DMlCPC) Higher ethnic birth rates moderate over time. (CV) People often move away from their birthplace. (SD) What is the 2020/2040 forecast? (CV) What is the region's buildout? (CPC) Will growth still be faster in North County? (CV) What is the schedule for Series 9? (IB) What happens when residential capacity is reached? (SD) LOCAL JURISDICTION FORECAST The forecast .mandates. that cities accommodate housing. (P/ffi) Why does population grow at a faster rate than housing? (DM) Incorrect vacancy rate invalidates the forecast. (IB) The Availablitiy of land for development should be considered in the forecast. (IB) Transportation models don't account for larger household size when generating trips. (CV) What assumptions were made for FUA, Otay Ranch and military bases? (CV/CPC) The forecast should address socio-economic impacts. (CPC) Growth in one jurisdiction will have impacts outside its boundaries. (SD) Underestimates of growth would result in inadequate public facilities. (SD) 2 EXISTING GENERAUCOMMUNITY PLAN Cities must maintain local control. (V) The existing General Plan is a commitment to the people. (P) A General Plan which was adopted recently should not change. (SB) A plan which incorporates light rail station planning helps transit funding. (CY) The region has over-planned for employment growth. (CV) Current Plans are strongly influence by local agency revenue needs. (IB) The current Plan supports the Land Use Element concepts. (COR) Height limits should be maintained. (P) LAND USE DISTRIBUTION ELEMENT Local growth caps limit some cities ability to implement the proposed Land Use Element. (V) Mixed use in town centers is a good idea: (DM/COR) Financing mixed-use development is difficult. (SD) Conversion of employment land near stations is an issue. (V) People want to live in single family homes. (SD) Numerically balancing jobs and housing does not work. (DM) This concept may be inconsistent with the Local Coastal Plan objectives. (SB) Increased density is a difficult issue. (SB) The type and density of housing in market-driven. (SD) Good pedestrian facilities are needed in station areas. (SB) Narrower streets are a good idea. (SB) Higher intensities worsen local street congestion. (CV) Transit travel time objectives should be closer to automobile travel time objectives. (CPC) How were urban and rural areas defined? (SD) There are higher crime rates in high density areas. (IB) Higher density areas have higher public costs. (P) Infrastructure improvements should come before intensities are increased. (CPC) Forcing development back into central areas makes sense. (CY) Densities of 20 DU/Acre will not support light rail. (CPC) How can additional services be provided as existing communities redevelop. (CY) Poor schools are an impediment to the redevelopment of central areas. (CV) It is too easy to subdivide for large lot development. (CV) Additional residential capacity should be provided in newly developing areas. (IB/CPC) The Land Use Distribution concept is appealing, but implementation is difficult. (SD) OTHER DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS What is the region's holding capacity? (CV) Are there other way to accommodate the region's growth? (CY) 3 OPEN SPACE How can open space be preserved? (V) The current amount of open space per resident is adequate. (V) Additional taxes to pay for open space is not acceptable. (V) Are the Habitat studies integrated into the forecast? (CV) Conversion of rura11ands should be minimized. (DM) TRANSPORTATION PLAN Light rail should serve the beach communities. (IB, PB) Rail service in needed in MidCity, bus fumes are unhealthy. (CPC) The Trolley is tourist oriented. It does not serve residents. (CPC) When will the non- TransNet transit corridors be built? (CV) Why aren't more advanced transit technologies being considered? (CY) How is trans-border traffic forecasted? (CY) GENERAUOTHER SANDAG has identified an issue which should be dealt with. (SD) It is important to look to the future. (SB) Education should be a quality of life factor. (P) How is smog transport (from Los Angeles) accounted for? (CY) Impact fees are needed to fund regional facilities. (IB) Higher gasoline prices are needed. (CPC) SANDAG/MTDB are controlled by the City of San Diego & developers (IB) 4