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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda Packet 2004/03/30 ~{ft.. ~~~ ~~~~. 01Y OF CHULA VlSfA TUESDAY. MARCH 30. 2004 4:00 P.M. COUNCIL CHAMBERS PUBLIC SERVICES BUILDING ADJOURNED JOINT MEETING OF THE CITY COUNCIL AND REDEVELOPMENT AGENCY OF THE CITY OF CHULA VISTA MEETING CONCURRENTLY WITH THE BOARD OF PORT COMMISSIONERS SAN DIEGO UNIFIED PORT DISTRICT CALL TO ORDER ROLL CALL Council/Agency Members Davis, McCann, Rindone, Salas; Mayor/Chair Padilla ORAL COMMUNICATIONS This is an opportunity for the general public to address the City Council/Redevelopment Agency on any subject matter within the Council/Agency's jurisdiction that is not an item on this agenda. (State law. however, generally prohibits the City Council/Redevelopment Agency from taking action on any issues not included on the posted agenda.) If you wish to address the Council/Agency on such a subject, please complete the "Request to Speak Under Oral Communications Form" available in the lobby and submit it to the Secretary to the Redevelopment Agency or City Clerk prior to the meeting. Those who wish to speak, please give your name and address for record purposes and follow up action. ACTION ITEMS The items fisted in this section of the agenda are expected to elicit substantial discussions and deliberations by the Council/Agency, staff, or members of the general public. The items will be considered individually by the Council/Agency and staff recommendation may in certain cases be presented in the alternative. Those who wish to speak, please fill out a Request to Speak form available in the lobby and submit it to the Secretary to the Redevelopment Agency or City Clerk prior to the meeting. 1. PRESENTATION BY CONSULTANT TEAM ON THE MARKET STUDY FINDINGS AND PRELIMINARY CONCEPTS FOR THE CHULA VISTA BA YFRONT MASTER PLAN - The one-year master planning process is entering its final phase. The consultant team will present a market study identifying potential land uses that could be supported by current and/or future market demands and preliminary planning concepts for the Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan (CVBMP) based on market study findings, public input received to date, and the team's preliminary planning framework. Additional Citizen Advisory Committee meetings and public workshops will be held in order to develop three master plan alternatives prior to the next joint meeting of the Board of Port Commissioners and City Council / Redevelopment Agency anticipated for late May. All three plans will be analyzed in an Environmental Impact Report, and one preferred plan will be carried forward to the State Lands Commission and California Coastal Commission for final approval. [Director of Community Development] STAFF RECOMMENDATION: No action by the City Council/Redevelopment Agency is requested at this time. ADJOURNMENT The meeting will adjourn to the regular meeting of the City Council on April 6, 2004, at 4:00 p.m., and the regular meeting of the Redevelopment Agency on April 20, 2004, at 6:00 p.m., immediately following the City Council meeting in the City Council Chambers. (The regular meeting of the Redevelopment Agency for April 6, 2004, has been cancelled.) AMERICANS WITH DISABIUTIES ACT The City of Chula Vista, in complying with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), request individuals who require special accommodates to access, attend, and/or participate in a City meeting, activity, or service request such accommodation at least 48 hours in advance for meetings and five days for scheduled services and activities. Please contact the Secretary to the Redevelopment Agency for specific information at (619) 691-5047 or Telecommunications Devices for the Deaf (TOO) at (619) 585-5647. California Relay Service is also available for the hearing impaired. City Council/Redevelopment Agency, March 30, 2004 Page 2 PAGE I, ITEM NO.: MEETING DATE: I 3/30/04 JOINT REDEVELOPMENT AGENCY / CITY' COUNCIL AGENDA STATEMENT ITEM TITLE: PRESENTATION BY CONSULTANT TEAM ON THE MARKET STUDY FINDINGS AND PRELIMINARY CONCEPTS FOR THE CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN SUBMlnED BY: COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DIRECTO REVIEWED BY: EXECUTIVE DI RECTOR Dt' 4/5TH5 YOTE: YES 0 NO 0 BACKGROUND The consultant team will present a market study that has identified potential land uses that could be supported by current and/or future market demands. Additionally, the consultant team has incorporated market study findings, public input received to dote, and its preliminary planning framework in developing preliminary planning concepts for the Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan (CVBMP). The one-year master planning process is now entering its final phase. After today's presentation of market opportunities and preliminary planning concepts, four Citizens Advisory Committee (CAC) meetings and two public workshops will be held in order to develop three master plan alternatives prior to the next joint meeting of the Boord of Port Commissioners (Board) and City Council/Redevelopment Agency (City Council). All three plans will be analyzed in an Environmental Impact Report, and one preferred plan will be carried forward to the State lands Commission and California Coastal Commission for final approval. At a joint meeting in late May, the Board and City Council will have a number of decision-making options on the plans, because each plan will be divided into four subareas: North (Pacifica properties), Harbor District (the marina and surrounding lands), South (power plant site), and the water area. At that joint meeting, each of these districts could be interchanged in order to develop a preferred plan at that time. The CAC and staff will make independent recommendations to the Boord and Council in late May. The goal is to achieve a "win-win" plan for all parties concerned. RECOMMENDATION Presentation by consultant team on the draft market study findings and preliminary concepts for the Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan. 1- I PAGE 2, ITEM NO.: MEETING DATE: , 3/30/04 BOARDS/COMMISSIONS RECOMMENDATION Not applicable. DISCUSSION Since the last joint Board City Council meeting in July, the CVBMP team has engaged in extensive public outreach. A 20-member CAC was formed, with the intent of increasing citizen input into the CVBMP and allowing for a constructive exchange of ideas with a diverse group of interested citizens and community organizations. The CAC will have the opportunity to make a land use recommendation for the CVBMP to Port and City staff. To dote, nine CAC meetings have been held. The substantial comments received during the CAC meetings and other public meetings demonstrated support for joint planning and further investigation of a potential land exchange between the 126 acres of City jurisdictional land known as the MidBayfront Properties, 96 acres of which are privately held, and the publicly-held, 420-acre Port property. The land exchange could allow residential use to be placed on existing Port property. At the March 2nd City Council meeting, and at the March 9th Board meeting, the Joint Planning Agreement amendment between the Port and the City for the CVBMP was approved to include the MidBayfront properties in the CVBMP planning process, for a total planning area of 546 acres. The City will retain control over the planning of all City-jurisdictional property. In addition, in response to Board and City Council direction in July for staff to hold a public forum to discuss the South Boy Power Plant (SBPP) parcel, a SBPP Working Group, comprised of CAC members, technical experts, and other interested parties, was established to explore the complexity of issues associated with the SBPP parcel, and to aid the CAC in developing a land use recommendation for the power plant site as part of the master plan. The consultant team will present a market study that has identified potential land uses that could be supported by current and/or future market demands. The market study concludes that there is significant potential for numerous revenue-producing uses on the bayfront, based on regional growth prospects and Chula Vista's expected fair share capture of the various markets; and that the local conditions are conducive to attracting a variety of uses (office/business park, research and development, specialty retail, conference center, and hotel), once certain constraints are removed. The market study findings, which are summarized below, will be used to ensure that the planning concepts are realistically based. Year Office/Business Pa Hotel . ft. 5 250,000 10 590,000 20 1,065,000 30 1,500,000 1- '^ ATTACHMENT 1 ~'"'".. JIIIJI.... Unit'i~1 PMt c(Stul I>~ News Release www.portofsandicgo.org March 22, 2004 Contact: Marguerite Elicone (619) 686-6281 Regular Board of Port Commissioners Meeting to be Held in Chula Vista Update on Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan to be Presented to the Board of Port Commissioners and Chula Vista City Council After Meeting WHAT: Regular Board of Port Commissioners Meeting in Chula Vista followed by a presentation of the Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan WHEN: 1 :00 p.m., Tuesday, March 3D, 2004 (Regular Board of Port Commissioners meeting) 4:00 p.m. Joint Board of Port Commissioners and Chula Vista City Council/Redevelopment Agency Meeting WHERE: Chula Vista City Council Chambers 276 4th Avenue Chula Vista, CA WHO: Board of Port Commissioners Chula Vista City Council SIGNIFICANCE: In 2003, the Port of San Diego celebrated 40 years of public service to the region of San Diego County. As a way to commemorate that anniversary and to reach out to its member cities of Chula Vista, Coronado, Imperial Beach, National City and San Diego, the Port conducted several of its regular Board of Port Commissioners meetings in each of those cities. The Port is continuing with its traveling Board meetings this year to give the -more- 1- " community an opportunity to learn more about its operations and services. A special dual meeting with the Board of Port Commissioners and the Chula Vista City Council/Redevelopment Agency will take place following the regular Board meeting. The purpose of this meeting is to update the Board and City Council on the progress of the Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan. Representatives from the project consultant team, Sedway Group, will present the findings from a market study that was completed in February 2004 to investigate land uses that could be supported by current and future market demand for the Chula Vista Bayfront. Also, representatives from the project consultant team of Carrier Johnson/Cooper, Robertson & Partners will present preliminary concepts for the Master Plan. In addition to this meeting, a Citizens Advisory Committee meeting will be held at 2:00 p.m. on Monday, March 29 at Bob's on the Bay restaurant, located at 570 Marina Parkway in Chula Vista. Preliminary concepts for the Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan will be presented at this meeting. The Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan study area is comprised of approximately 500 acres of land on the bayfront of Chula Vista. 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'< Create One Chula Vista Bayfront 1 Celebrate the serenity and Hispanic culture of Chula Vista's Bayfront setting Extend Chula Vista all the way to the Bayfront 2 Take advantage of deep water at the harbor to create an active boating waterfront Create a Bayfront park system that marries ecological habitats and the recreational needs of the community. 3 New development should reinforce the sense of place at the Bayfront "Mid-Bayfront" 128.3 ac. Port Site 420.0 ac. Total: 548.3 ac. 4 Private and City 128.3 ac. Tidelands 156.2 ac. South Campus Public Trust 203.8 ac. High Tide Line 5 Deve opment Program 1. Site 2. Water Net land 548 ac. 60 ac. 488 ac. 50% Development 30% Open Space 20% Streets 244 ac. 146 ac. 98 ac. 244 ac. X 43,560 = 10,628,640 sf FAR 1.00 = 10,628,640 sf FAR 0.75 = 7,971,480 sf Residential 2,000-3,600 Units Jobs 1,500,000-2,500,000 sf Retail 200,000-600,000 sf CividCultural 100,000-500,000 sf Entertainment/Tourism 30-50 ac BayWalk Ecological Buffers Cultural Park Recreational Park 15-20 acres 30-40 acres 35-45 acres 40-50 acres 6 BayWalk Ecological Buffers Cultural Park Recreational Park 15-20 acres 30-40 acres 35-45 acres 40-50 acres BayWalk Ecological Buffers Cultural Park Recreational Park 1 5-20 acres 30-40 acres 35-45 acres 40-50 acres 7 BayWalk Ecological Buffers Cultural Park Recreational Park 15-20 acres 30-40 acres 35-45 acres 40-50 acres Transportation Ideas The Bay and Water Plan Ideas Good public transportation CU)(7) Bike unes along Roadways (11) Connect transit to shopping areas along H Street and civic buildings along F Stlllet (8) (3) 00 not aggravate existing traffic problems on Interstate 5 (1) Activate Coronado Railroad for eco-tourism opportunities (1) Transtt route conneding Chula Vista attractions (Nature Center, Olympic Training Cenler, etc.) (1) No cars and roads Rename streets so people exiting the freeway kniJw they're arriving at a special pia"" Preserve Coronado Railway right-of-way Use Coronado Railway right.of-way Water Taxi connections around SD Bay (11 )(2) Start by cleaning up the Boy (like Boltimore did) (10K81 Realign boat chennolse_enl (5)(1) Public Boat launch with adjacent boat and traUer storage (4) Preservation of existing marinn (4) Kayak access, appropriate for shallow waters (4) Working Harbor for boat use_sail,charter,repair,instruction(3) Create a Beach Area (3) Gondola Rides around the Bay (2) Boatyard needed Bait and Tackle shop Marina expansion Provide opening to Imperial Beach Bring the channel inland to create a water orienled environment Accessibility to waterfront by other boats Paddleboats Fueling Dock Extend Dock for Maritime activity Remove the marina and return to open space Accommodate recreational and competitive sailing Dredge to increase boating on the bay\ Better channel markers Sweetwater District Otay District Harbor District 8 Transportation Ideas Good public transportation (13)(7) Bike Lanes along Roadways (11) Connect transit to shopping areas along H Street and civic buildings along F Street (6) (3) Transit route connecting Chula Vista attractions (Nature Center, Olympic Center, etc.) (1) 9 ...r" '. .... ! I /~-- a b ( ! 1" . r j \ ....r t..a J f' ',> ,If'1 ,I..-Jof l..., ':"-,' :/1 ! 1 ~ c', :~::.~ .\........_~, " IL' ,1 -\ ! Do not aggravate existing traffic problems on Interstate 5 (1) 10 Activate Coronado Railroad for eco-tourism opportunities (1 Preserve Coronado Railway right-of-way Use Coronado Railway right-of-way 11 Activate Coronado Railroad for eco-tourism opportunities (1 Preserve Coronado Railway right-of-way Use Coronado Railway right-of-way Sweetwater District 128.3 ac. Harbor District 269.7 ac. Otay District 150.3 ac. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 :".. . '...... 'r".Il'-MM"7l<5-,<e r-,,~.: f'J","""'''"'- ""'~." // " ~ -p<g ~A"TSJ(~ '\ \ ~~IVMTlA... \ \ I I / ft.E,!i,.,bI>MTl......L /~. /. q' :/~.::;..,,+- ~ V::-.Jo>~' 20 21 22 23 Bring the channel inland to create a water oriented environment 24 25 IBM Headquarters, Solana, Texas 26 r'"" I " " " 1/ ", :.1 ! j t-, ~";DI5> #:c:.Si$S . ~ 1"0 '!HE ~~ ~^ ':rCF -__,_~___. -"'H~ ,,".J"" ~~~ i/i.re ~ -...... ! J'~ ~su."TES !tiE. Q, : .........,. t1'-d'" r-n W.-"r~FZO'HT : --J : "- ft..B~ib..~T\AL \ \ \ \ TJ.L lit! '.:1,1 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Restaurants Shops/retail for boaters and tourists Seaport Village - Outdoor Mall Coronado Ferry Landing Fisherman's Wharf Food Court with international Cuisine Fanners Market Large themed amusement park Sports complex/arena/concert venue Regional Shopping Center Night Clubs 37 38 Water Ideas 39 40 Marina expansion Dredge to increase boating on the bay Remove the marina and return to open space Existing Marinas Stay 1 41 Marina expansion Dredge to increase boating on the bay Remove the marina and return to open space Existing Marinas Stay One Marina Relocates Marina expansion Dredge to increase boating on the bay Remove the marina and return to open space Existing Marinas Stay One Marina Relocates One Marina Relocate 42 Water Taxi connections around SO Bay (11 )(2) Start by cleaning up the Bay (like Baltimore did) (10)(6) Paddleboats Realign boat channel seaward (5)( 1 ) Public Boat launch with adjacent boat and trailer storage (4) Preservation of existing marinas (4) Kayak access, appropriate for shallow waters (4) g ... N 43 Water Taxi connections around SO Bay (11 )(2) 44 Kayak access, appropriate for shallow waters (4) ~;ffcl\Wf.~i",!JII!tl,_ \. Create a Beach Area (3) Beach Option to show 45 Extend Dock for Maritime activity Working Harbor for boat use :sail,charter,repair,instrucllon(3 Services Boatyard needed Fueling Dock 46 47 FROM SAI FAX NO. 6194750580 Mar. 22 2004 09: 55PM P1 CROSSROADS II Citizens Working Together to Keep Chula Vista a Good Place to Will T. Hyde March 23, 2004 Co-Founder, J9/9-2()(U TO: Chairman Fuller and Members of the Chula Vista Bayfront Steering Committee Advisory Committee (CAC), via Wileen aois FAX 686.6 Palricia Aguilar Presidenl LupilO Jimenez Vice Pre.,ident Susan Watry Membership CQOrdinalor Sandy Duncan J:;vents Coordinalorl Treasurer Peter Walry Newslelter Editor Tom Davis Sharon Floyd Ji// G~lv~ Co-Recording Secretary Jim Peterson Carlene Scott Co-Recording Secrelary Jerry Scott Bruce Cunningham Webma:;ler SUBJECT: Fundamental Planning Assumptions Underlying the Bayfi'ont Master Plan CROSSROADS n bas Significant concems about the fundamental land use asswnptions that are flowing from the BayOOnt Master Plan consultants. These assumptions are being fOlWarded without adequate explanation of their implications or discussion by the CAe. Yet, these assumptions arc of CRITICAL importance because they form the basis upon which the development scenarios will be based. As we see it, these fundamental asswnptions have been made by the consultants with insufficient review and discussion by the CAC. At the Jan 12th CAC meeting, Randy Morton presented six "design principles" for the Chula Vista bayfront, as fblloWll; 1. Create one (''hula Vista Bayfront 2. Celebrate the serenity and the Hispanic culture ofChula Vista's Bayfront setting 3. Extend Chula Vista all the way to the Bayfront 4. Create a Bayfront park system that marries ecological habitats and the recreational needs of the community 5. Take advantage of deep water to create an active boating waterfront 6. New development should reinforce the sense of place at the Bayfront en endorses these design principles, although we continue to have concerns about Principle 5. We have not received an answer to our question, Does this principle imply dredging? If SOt is dredging a realistic possibility and is it environmentally acceptable? Mr. Morton then described the development program for the 360 acres of Port District land as including 180 acres for open space and roads, and 180 acres for development. He described the program forthe180 acres to be developed as follows: 619.427.7493 262 Second Avenue Chula Vista CA 91910 Visit us at: chulavislacrossroaduripodcom E-mail: xroad.<a@cox.nct FAX 619.691.1651 FROM SA! FAX NO. 6194750580 Mar. 22 2004 09: 56PM P2 . 70% jobs . 20% retail . 10% civic uses What these progrdlll categories ~present in terms of land uses was not presented. Nevertheless, several members of the CAC expressed reservations about 70% of the development program being allocated to "jobs." Nick DeLorenzo commented that the square footages for commercial office use (which were derived from the 7()o~ program figure) seemed high. Jim Peugh commenlcll \.hat offices arc anpty three-quarters of the time, including weekends. Jim went ()n to remark that other places are suitable for industrial and office development., but the Bayfront should contain a better balance of uses. With apologies to Nick and Jim if we have misconstrued the intent of their comments, cn shares these concerns. The Sedway market analysis presented to the CAe on March 1st expands on the program outlined by Mr. Morton by adding two new alternatives, tor a total of three that now appear to be on the table: Jobs Emphasis Tourism/Entertainment Emphasis Civic Emphasis 70% jobs 20% retail 10% civic 50% jobs 40010 retail 10% civic 50% jobs 20% retail 30% civic We assume that the three alternative development plans the consultants are contractually obligated to produce will be based on the above alternatives. Yet, there bas been no explanation of what these programmatic categories represent in terms ofland uses, and there has been no substantive discussion about the appropriateness/desirability of these threc (very similar) program allocations. Ms. Scdway defined the "jobs" program as including industrial, R&D, and office park uses. However, neither she nor Gordon Carrier explained which program. category some of the potential uses she presented for intermediate tenn development of the Bayfront fit into. For example, the Sedway report lists relocation of the existing San Diego Sports Arena as a potential intermediate term use. W ouId the Sports Arena be considered part of the open space program? Which program category does "Hotel" Lit into? The answers to these important questions may have a strong bearing on how the CAe feels about the above program allocations. The answers will certainly have a strong bearing on how cn will react to them. 2 FROM SA! FAX NO. 6194750580 Mar. 22 2004 09: 56PM P3 Our understanding is that on March 29/30th development schemes based on the above alternatives will be presented to the CAC/Redevelopment Agency - Pnrt Commissioners. We are deeply concerned that the development schemes to be presented are based on fundamental program assumptions which the CAC has a) not been provided an understanding ofin terms ofland uses, and b) ha.o; not hAd 3Ub!Jtonti.... re...i.w and dillOwlI:ion of. Tb__fon-, w," rNJII~d that th~ fint item of business at tbe March 29 meeting of tbe CAe be devoted to an explanation of how these programmatic catelones translate to specific land uses, and a diseulIsion of whether or not the R.ulting land use alternatives are the only ones that should be considered. PI1r notbm_ ro eon~l ~ m;~: Mve any q_ions. patri.c~ Aguilar Peter w"';;t6 President crr CAe Representative Cc: R. Morton G. Carrier R Hicks L. Madigan W. Hall 3 ----- ~ --~~- GOODRICH Goodrich AeroatructUr&8 Group 850 l.agoon Drive Chula VI&ta. California 91910-2098 CunI. Aeuuer PI'8Sident, Aerostruc:lUres curtis.reuaserOgoodrIch.com Tel: 619691 2469 FlU: 619 &91 2222 www -ra.truetu>ee..aoodrleh.eom March 25, 2004 Peter Q. Davis Chairman of the Board of Port Commissioners Office of the District Clerk San Diego Unified Port District. P.O. Box 120488 San Diego, CA 92112-0488 Dear Mr. Chairman, Goodrich Aerostructures has observed with great interest over the recent months as the discussion of mutual interests among the San Diego Unified Port District ("Port"), the City of Chula Vista (".City") and the Pacifica Companies ('"Pacifica") culminated in the Port's March 9th approval of a resolution authorizing an amendment to its Ioint Planning Agreement ('.JP A") with the City. Approval of this amendment enabled the inclusion of Pacifica's MidBayfront Properties into the Chuta Vista Bayfront Master Plan process and paved the way for a possible land transfer between the Port and Pacifica as well as the introduction of residential development on the existing Port property adjacent to Goodrich. As a stakeholder in the master planning process by virtue of our property ownership adjacent to the existing Port property. Goodrich believes thar its interests must be considered as the planning process proceeds and a final master plan option is selected and adopted from among several that are being explored. We understand that the master plan option that is ultimately adopted mayor may not provide for a land exchange between the Port and Pacifica and enablement of residential development on the existing Port land. It is to this issue of whether or not the adopted master plan ':>ption will include a land exchange and residential development adjacent to Goodrich's property that I address this letter. Please be advised that Goodrich is opposed to any master plan or action that would place. residential development at its doorstep. We believe that the co-existence of full-time residents and indl.\strial operations in such close proximity is not a wise plan and over time can only result in increased operating costs to Goodrich and unhappy residents. Such a plan would have a negative impact on our ability to remain competitive in Chula Vista and would put the jobs of nearly eighteen hundred employees at risk, of which over five hundred. reside in the City of Chula. Vista. For Goodrich to remain competitive in Chula Vista and in California, efforts such as these must be abandoned Page 1 Aohr, Inc., a subsidiary of Goodrich Corporation, operating as Goodrich Aerostructures Group .Our opposition is not a new notion, but was in fact the impetus for certain language incorporated within the Relocation Agreement that was signed by the Port, City and Goodrich in 1999. There is a great deal of text within that Agreement that points clearly to the parties' intent that the Port property adjacent to Goodrich retain its Industrial Business Park land use designation and not be subjected to the introduction of residential development. In support of this intent. I offer a few applicable provisions from the Relocation Agreement for your review: · Section 6.3.1 - provides that the Port shall use reasonable effons to avoid approving or facilitating Sensitive Receptors on the property adjacent to' Goodrich (Section 6.1.5 defines Sensitive Receptors to include residential projects adjacent to Goodrich's current property). · Section 6.4.1 - establishes as a primary purpose of me Relocation Agreement, the need for the Port and City to redevelop the Port property to its highest and best use consistent with the Port's "Industrial Business Park" land use designation. · Section 6.4.2 - provides that the Port process and present to the Port Board for approval a Master Plan Amendment which imposes the Port's existing "Industrial Business Park" land use designation. In light of the clear intent and specifics of the Relocation Agreement, Goodrich believes that the Port comes extremely close to violating the terms of the Agreement with its recent approval of the first Amendment to the lP A. In that Amendment, the Port: ". .. agrees to work cooperatively with the Ciry in discussions concerning any such land exchange and the land use designation of Trost Property subject to such exchange, should such occur". Moreover, in the discussion notes found for Agenda Item #15 of the Port's March 9, 2004 Board meeting, there is recognition that a primary purpose for including Pacifica and its MidBayfront propE~rties in the JP A was to enable the prospect of a land transfer and introduction of residential development on the existing Port property: "Regarding further discussion of a land exchange, Pacifica is highly motivated because of the intensive public opposition to its proposed 2,000 residential unit project on the MidBayfronL. and the Port and City are motivated because residential use on existing Port property may greatly enhance and accelerate the opportunities for new development on the bay fronl and may help pay for needed infr.1Structure". In Goodrich's view, Port's approval of the Amendment constitutes an approval and faciIitization of the introduction of residential development on the existing Port property in violation of the Relocation Agreement. Furthermore, it is our view that if a violation has not already occurred, it is certain to occur at such time in the future as the Port approves of any Ma<;ter Plan option that includes residential development on the existing Port property. Page 2 Rohr, Inc., a sub$idiary of Goodrich Corporation. operating 88 Goodrich Aerostructures Group While it seems clear to Goodrich that the Port and City are going down a path that is in conflict with the provisions of Relocation Agreement, I would appreciate hearing your point of view. I want, as you do, to have a successful bay front development, but am confident that it can be done in a manner that is beneficial to all, including Goodrich. I look forward to hearing from you. Yours truly, ~?&:~ Curtis Reusser cc: Mayor Stephen C. Padilla; Supervisor Greg Cox; Vice Chairman William A. Hall Page 3 Aohr, Inc., a subsidiary of Goodrioh Corporation. operating as Goodrich Aerostructures Group FW: Letter of Comment on Bayfront Market Analysis Page 2 of4 Center on Policy Initiatives 3727 Camino Del Rio South Suite 100 San Diego, CA 92108 (619) 584-5744 x 32 (619) 584-5748 (fax) March 26, 2004 RE: MARKET ANALYSIS STUDY FOR PLANNING OF THE BAYFRONT Over the past year the Center on Policy Initiatives has been working with local residents and community groups to provide expertise and research support in the areas of equity planning, redevelopment law, and economic analysis. I am writing this letter as a record of public comment on the scope of the Bayfront Market Analysis by Carrier Johnson/Sedway Group. I find that the study is sound in its data and methodology. There are, however, several areas where the study is incomplete in terms of providing the residents and policy makers with adequate information to conduct a thorough master planning process. 1) Need to Include the Entire Bayfront in Market Analysis Foremost, the study does not include the entire Bayfront-notably the Mid-Bayfront-in its analysis. The efforts to plan these properties jointly and to look at all possible development plans and land uses require that any economic or market analyses include the entire area. This would allow a full assessment of the market activities in relation to potential land uses. Thus, the study's alternatives or suggested scenarios for development do not provide a full range of possible development plans, nor the flexibility of master planning the entire range of properties that would provide the best use of the properties. 2) The Development of a Convention Facility Does Not Require Co-Located Residential The community has already stated that a regional or potentially national serving convention facility including hotel and conference areas is a desired use. The current study examines these uses, but again, should include the Mid-Bayfront in its analysis. This would allow the consideration of location of a mixed-use conference center on the parcels on the Mid-Bayfront-the area that appears to be the most appropriate for a mixture of public/civic/ and conference uses for many physical site and location reasons. Under this development plan, the location of residential density would make more economic sense in another area of the Bayfront. Co-locating residential with conference/visitor facilities is not a typical, nor best use configuration. I have surveyed the most successful conference facilities in both regional and national destination size, and in none of the developments are residential units an integral component of the project-indeed some are mentioned as case studies in the report. Indeed, the more successful projects with conference hotels, particularly on waterfront property, tend not to have residential development. In short, the development of a convention/visitor or similar mixed-use facility does not require the co-location of residential density; rather the opposite is the case. 3) Expand the Analysis and Valuation of A Conference Center/Mixed Use Plan The study assumes that a conference center/mixed use oriented development would have to rely on demand generators such as corporate location, government, or first class hotel amenities. While these are typically 03/29/2004 FW: Letter of Comment on Bayfront Market Analysis Page 3 of 4 requisites for larger scale conference facilities, such as the San Diego Convention Center, the regional serving conference needs of South San Diego County, and Chula Vista in particular, could be met by existing demand in conjunction with the co-location of existing visitor serving retail and waterfront amenities. This size center can be found in Mission Valley-for instance the Town and Country Hotel and Conference Center-which has a far less attractive and accessible location compared to the Chula Vista Bayfront Property, but nevertheless sees a steady demand, including national conferences. Local or regional serving conference/hotel space are undervalued typically because it is assumed that only community groups and business would use such facilities, however, the demand in heavily residential cities includes a great deal of family, school and other and municipal activities: proms, weddings, church functions, even quincearieras. With the substantial population increase and rapidly approaching build-out, such facilities will only exhibit increased demand. Although data sources such as Claritas Inc. may not have adequate market demand data for these needs, a model of demographic and income expenditures using can easily calculate what the potential market demand would be for a smaller size conference/hotel facility. Given the importance of such a facility to the community, such an analysis should be conducted. 4) Synergistic Development in Coordination With Downtown Development Vary Residential located on the Bayfront is unlikely to generate catalytic effects in commercial or retail development in the downtown area of Chula Vista because of transportation and access issues. In short, it is far easier and more realistic to expect residents on the Bayfront to travel via the interstate towards other regional power centers than to shop in the downtown area unless they have specific needs that can be met in the downtown area. Downtown revitalization strategies that have been successful, including San Diego, have been largely based on three factors: (1) creating a world class visitor draw point, (2) increasing residential with employment development to capture highly localized retail and commercial demand, and (3) using a flagship project to catalyze commercial and retail development (Baltimore's Inner Harbor, CCDC's Horton Plaza). As the report states, larger scale regional retail configurations would potentially compete with the downtown revitalization efforts. However, higher end niche retail and visitor-capturing linkages to downtown Chula Vista would be a more appropriate way to synergistically capture both commuting and visiting retail demand. Such a market segment could be fruitfully developed with a smaller regional conference/visitor facility. The current retail composition of the city and surrounding areas are predominantly discount or large-scale retail. Opportunities for smaller niche market and higher end retail could be absorbed at the Bayfront and not compete with the downtown revitalization efforts. 5) Finally, while this report is primarily focused on market demand parameters, considerations for employment outcomes, affordable housing, and other community needs should be considered in relation to these market characteristics. The unique location of the properties combined with the potential use of public financial assistance mean that any master planned project can include conditions for employment standards, contribute to affordable housing demand, and sensitive environmental needs and mitigation. Extraordinary Opportunities Should Be Capitalized On As the study indicates, the potential opportunities at the Bayfront are extraordinary. I have reviewed similar properties in California and there are none with the same market potential that also have such extensive coordination and community collaboration so early in the planning process. This program of Master planning could result in meeting community needs for convention/conference facilities, generating needed city revenues through hotel and sales tax, can capture unmet retail demand, as well as synergistically catalyze the downtown area-but only if the area is planned properly by looking at all possible Master plan options. Sincerely, 03/29/2004 FW: Letter of Comment on Bayfront Market Analysis Page 4 of 4 David Karjanen, Ph.D. Research Coordinator CC: Bruce Hollingsworth, CEO, Port District David Rowlands, City Manager, City of Chula Vista Leslie Wade, Consultant Laurie Madigan, Director Redevelopment City of Chula Vista City Council, Chula Vista Mayor Steve Padilla ER> Unified Port of San Diego Serving the region since 1963 as an * economic engine * environmental steward * community service provider ER> 03/29/2004 ~ 1717 Kettner Blvd. Suile 100, San Diego, C4 92101 (619) 235-0281 FY (611)) 232-3670 www.environmenlalheallhOfg March 25, 2004 Mayor and City Council City of Chula Vista 276 Fourth Avenue Chula Vista, CA 91910 Chairman and Port Commissioners San Diego Unified Port District P.O. Box 120488 San Diego, CA 92112 Dear Mayor and City Councilmembers and Chairman and Port Commissioners : Environmental Health Coalition (EHC) wishes to thank the Council and the Port District once again for your leadership in ensuring that the development of the Bayfront is the result of comprehensive planning. As we stated at hearings, we believe that this was an important step toward developing the best plan for the Chula Vista Bayfront. Comprehensive planning and development criteria were key issues raised in the June 10, 2003 letter signed by eleven community-based and labor organizations. Now the next critical step is before us-analysis and planning for development for the entire Bayfront. As we move forward on the joint planning of the Bayfront, we wanted to take the opportunity to revisit those criteria and update them to reflect current understanding and conditions. To this end, we have worked with our EHC Community Action Team which is made up of Chula Vista residents, workers, and representatives of allied organizations. Our additional comments also reflect input from our monthly Chula Vista Community meetings and participation in the Power Plant Working Group and the Citizen's Advisory Committee. It is also our aim to suggest additional steps that should be taken in advance of adoption of the three alternatives in May so that our decision-making can be the most informed as possible. DEVELOPMENT PLAN CRITERIA EHC recommends that the development alternatives for the Chula Vista Bayfront meet the following criteria. Alternatives should capitalize on opportunity development provides to improve quality of life, environment and economy of the region. By any measure, the large size and long-term impact of such a major coastal, waterfront redevelopment is significant and can provide the impetus for major improvements on the Bayfront. This project should capitalize on the several opportunities provided by such change to improve quality of life, environmental health and economy of the region. Alternatives should drive improvements over current conditions through: . land use plans that fully protect sensitive habitat areas from development impacts and reverses the course of extinction for sensitive species; . elimination of devastating impacts to San Diego Bay from SBPP cooling system; . elimination of EMF risks and blight from power lines; · reduction or elimination of current or potential negative health impacts from toxic air emissions from South Bay Power Plant and BFG; . clean up of groundwater contamination; and · provision of parks and open space and improved infrastructure to reverse West side deficiencies. Alternatives should reflect Community, City, Port, and Coastal Act priorities The alternatives that are selected should reflect that community priority of serving current Chula Vista and regional residents, in-county boat owners, and visitors who will come to spend their discretionary money in Chula Vista and the Port. A lower priority should be placed on serving new residents, out-of-state boatowners, and uses that will further industrialize the Bayfront or negatively impact adjacent uses. Alternatives should reflect well-defined Coastal Act policies that place highest priority on public access, visitor serving, and water-dependent uses and lowest priority on residential, local commercial, and non-water dependent uses. Public Access and Parks A high priority for the Bayfront is public access and enjoyment. The Bayfront must be a place where families from throughout the region can enjoy this precious resource. We believe that significant amounts of parklands with varying use patterns should be part of any alternative. Parkland acreage must be significant enough to result in a significant reduction of the parks and open space deficit for current West side residents after needs of any new residents are met. In addition, a very significant footprint on the Mid-Bayfront must be dedicated to parklands so that the dual function of habitat buffering and increased human presence can be mutually supported. Residential Development of residential units is not an appropriate or acceptable use of mid-bay front land because it can only be enjoyed by those who live there, it is not accessible to the general public, and it causes unmitigable environmental impacts. Weare supportive of the location of residential on the Port properties through a land swap in locations that are safe from impacts to residents from industrial pollution, in numbers consistent with Coastal Act policies, and that do not overwhelm the civic uses and public spaces on the Bayfront. Mitigation and infrastructure support must adequately offset any impacts. Funding generated for affordable housing must be spent in a manner that ensures an increase in affordable housing stock or provided on-site. Public Health- Air Quality We are very supportive of the location residential as described above as long as the health of residents are not unacceptably impacted by industrial emissions from current or future industrial uses and any future! existing energy production facilities (includes power plant, power lines, and switchyard). Alternatives that propose new industrial or commercial uses must not worsen the air quality of this already impacted region Public Health- Water Quality We anticipate and support increased water contact uses in San Diego Bay. Alternatives must not worsen the current water quality of the region. Aggressive and effective storm water measures must be incorporated into the design of the plan and provisions must be made for them to be adequately maintained. Dredging necessary within the harbor or channel or to straighten the navigation channel away from the shoreline is supported if mitigated. Dredging that impacts eel grass and other important natural resources is not supported. Hotel! Conference Center Chula Vista needs and deserves a high quality, destination hotel with adequate facilities for local events. Appropriately sited, the Bayfront is ideal for such a facility. We would support a proposed hotel/conference center as described in the Sedway report. It is among the highest development priorities for the community and the land uses should be chosen to support such a use. We would support public funds to expedite the development of this hotel and to ensure high quality jobs there. It is important that the workers that work in these developments should be able to afford to live in the community. Wildlife Any development must protect and conserve the habitat, species, and ecosystems of the surrounding area including San Diego Bay and the existing wildlife refuges. Priority areas for conservation, buffering, and enhancement are Sweetwater Marsh, PIG Street, on-site degraded marsh, offshore tidal flats (midbayfront),J Street Marsh, submerged lands within the Refuge acquisition boundary. The issues of impacts of adjacent impacts must be addressed through natural and parklands buffers, predator control, education, and management. Economic Contribution and Community Impacts The alternatives should ensure that jobs created by Bayfront development provide fair wages, affordable health care, and be a positive force in the local economy. Commercial uses should enhance, not compete with, downtown core businesses. A comprehensive assessment of community and economic impacts should be done on all alternatives to inform the decision-makers and the public. Part of this analysis should include a clear implementation plan should be developed with public input. This will help inform and prioritize elements of a plan that may need investment of public funds to be realized. Further, development of the Bayfront provides an opportunity to contribute to much needed redevelopment and improvement in west Chula Vista and some incremental tax revenues associated with Bayfront development should be earmarked for and dedicated to mitigating impacts and improving the west side of Chula Vista. Energy Related Issues The South Bay Power Plant, as is, continues to cause significant harm to the health of the bay with its use of bay water for cooling. As a result, no alternative or replacement plant that uses San Diego Bay water for cooling should be pursued in the future. The current plant also continues to emit toxic air pollution that impacts public health. As a result, any alternative to the current plant must result in a significant reduction of air emissions and public health impacts above and beyond legal requirements. In addition, other power plant issues regarding downwind impacts, maintaining indigenous power generation in the region, commitment to renewable energy, and local control of the plant are all important facets of any decision to be made for the plant that need to be strongly considered. Boatyard Relocation It is appropriate to locate a boatyard to service recreational vessels (100 ton) for the purposes of servicing South Bay within the Port's Master Planning area in an appropriate area. It is not appropriate to accommodate a new, large vessels (600 ton) within the plan. NEXT STEPS We recommend that the Port and the City take the following additional actions as the alternatives are developed. We request that: · The City convene a workgroup on issues related to potential and future impacts of BFG and other potential toxic air emissions on adjacent development opportunities. · The Port continue the energy workgroup to address unresolved energy issues such as funding for undergrounding power lines, impacts of power plant on adjacent communities, and opportunities for community aggregation and public ownership. · The City and Port identify and provide for a public process for development of the economic analysis and implementation plan. We have attached our comments on the current draft of the SEDWAY Market study. Thank you for the opportunity to comment on this most important project for the region and for San Diego Bay. Sincerely, ORIGINAL SIGNED BY Laura Hunter, Director Clean Bay Campaign N ohelia Ramos, Community Organizer Clean Bay Campaign Al Huang, Policy Advocate Clean Bay Campaign Prepared for the Port of San Diego & City of Chula Vista TASK 4: MARKET ANALYSIS- REVISED DRAFT March 30, 2004 CARRIER JOHNSON Cooper, Robertson & Partners SEDWAV GROUP Real Estate and Urban Economics a ca Ri<hord Ellis Compony CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. OVERVI EW AN D EXE C UTIVE SUM MA RY .............................................................................................4 SUMMARy.................................................................................................................. 5 IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES AND PHASING................................................................9 Alternative 1 - "Jobs" Emphasis ............. ............................................................. .......................... ...........10 Alternative 2 - "Tourism/Entertainment Emphasis" ............................................ ...... ........................ .....1 0 Alternative 3 - "Civic Emphasis"...............................................................................................................11 Next Steps.......................................................................................................................... ......................... .12 II. E CON 0 M I COVE R VI EW.............................................................................................................................. .13 CALIFORNIA ECONOMy............................................................................................. .13 Manufacturing Employment.................................................................................................................... .. .14 SAN DIEGO REGIONAL ECONOMY ...............................................................................14 Maritime Employment - San Diego County.............................................................................................14 Biotechnology Employment Trends..... ......................... ...... .... .................. .... ...... ........ .... ...... ........ .......... ..15 High Technology Employment Trends...... ......... ........ .... .... ...... .......... ................ .......................... ...... .... ..15 Largest Employers in Chula Vista...... ...... ...... ......... .......... ...... .................. .......... .... ........ .................. ........17 Labor Forecast...................................................................................................................... ...................... .18 Conclusion..................................................................................................................... .............................. .19 III. DE M 0 G RA PHI C 0 V E R VI EW ..................................................................................................................... 2 0 Population Growth........................................................................................................................... ............20 Household Income........................................................................................................................ ..............21 Tijuana, Mexico........................................................................................................................ ...................22 Educational Attainment..................................................................................................................... .........22 Business Occupation Characteristics - San Diego County and Chula Vista.....................................22 Business Employment by Industry- San Diego County and Chula Vista...........................................23 Drive Time - Chula Vista......................................................................................................................... ..25 Housing Prices........................................................................................................................ .....................25 Summary and Conclusion.................................................................................................................... ......27 IV. SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET ....................................................................................................28 MARKET ANALYSIS .......... ..................................................... .................. ....... .........28 Office Market......................................................................................................................... .......................28 Industrial / R &0 Market........................................................................................................................ ......34 Retail Market........................................................................................................................ ........................38 Hotel Market........................................................................................................................ .........................45 Convention/Conference Center Market................................................................................................... 49 Residential Market........................................................................................................................ ..............53 V. SITE A N A L Y S IS.......................................................... ..................................................................................62 STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS................................62 Tidelands Trust......................................................................................................................... ...................62 Strengths....................................................................................................................... ...............................62 Weaknesses..................................................................................................................... ............................63 Opportunities................................................................................................................... .............................63 Threats....................................................................................................................... ...................................63 VI. CASE STUDIES FOR POTENTIAL LAND USES ...................................................................................64 RESEARCH PARK................................................................................................... .64 Page 2 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 Research Park Attributes..................................................................................................................... ......65 SAN DIEGO BIOTECH INDUSTRy................................................................................ .65 Elements of Success........................................................................................................................ ..........65 The University of California, at San Diego (UCSD)................................................................................66 Scripps Research Institute.......................... ........ ......................... .................. ...... ......................................66 Salk Institute..................................................................................................................... ............................66 CASE STUDIES OF OTHER AREAS........................................................................ ..66 San Francisco Bay Area Biotechnology Cluster..................................................................................... 6 6 Emeryville, California...................................................................................................................... ............66 South San Francisco, California ......... .......... .... ........ .... .... .................................................................... .... 67 Worcester Biotechnology Research Park............................ .............................. .... .................................. 67 Lessons Learned......................................................................................................................... ................68 URBAN WATERFRONT DEVELOPMENT .......................................................... ...............69 Granville Island............................................................................................................................ ................69 Lessons Learned.......................................................................................................................... ............... 70 The Bayfront - Redwood City .................................................................................................................... 71 Lessons Learned......................................................................................................................... ................ 71 Santa Monica Pier.......................................................................................................................... ............. 72 Lessons Learned........................................................................................................................ ................. 74 The Pike at Rainbow Harbor ..................................................................................................................... 75 Lessons Learned........................................................................................................................ ................. 76 Huntington Beach Hyatt Regency Hotel & Conference Center............................................................ 77 Lessons Learned........................................................................................................................ ................. 77 SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENT.......................................... ... ................................ ...... ..... 78 Ocean Ranch Corporate Centre ...............................................................................................................78 Lessons Learned....................................................................................................................... .................. 79 ADDITIONAL LAND USES........................................................................................ .80 SPORTS COMPLEXES........................................... .................................................... .80 City of Lancaster...................................................................................................................... ....................80 City of Po way .............................................................................................................................. .................81 Big League Dreams......................................................................................................................... ...........82 Lessons Learned....................................................................................................................... ..................82 ECOTOURISM ............................................................................................................ 83 San Diego County and South Bay............................................................................................................83 Size of the Ecotourism Market.................................................................................................................. 83 Wildlife- Watching...................................................................................................................... ...................84 Ecotourist Profile.......................................................................................................................... ...............84 Ecotourism Programs...................................................................................................................... ...........85 Maho Bay, Inc. Eco-Resorts..................................................................................................................... . 85 Channel Islands .................................................................................................................................. .........86 Family Camps......................................................................................................................... .....................89 Asilomar Conference Center / State Park ...............................................................................................90 Lessons Learned........................................................................................................................ .................92 ASSUMPTIONS AND GENERAL LIMITING CONDITIONS Page 3 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 I. OVERVIEW AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Chula Vista Bayfront property is undergoing a long-term master planning effort through the joint efforts of the City of Chula Vista and the Port of San Diego, which owns the land. The Port's goal of this effort is to create a world-class waterfront with feasible land uses given a moderate amount of public investment to attract the catalytic tenants. As a result of the recent modified Joint Powers Agreement between the City of Chula Vista and the Port of San Diego to do joint planning for the Bayfront and the privately-owned Mid- Bayfront property to the north, Sedway Group has updated its market analysis to include potential residential uses in order to provide recommendations to the participants in the planning process, including local officials, the community, and the team of consultants to ensure a feasible outcome. The Bayfront totals approximately 420 acres (60 acres of water and 360 acres of land). There are several major existing tenants with long-term leases. Duke Energy leases approximately 100 acres for the operation of an electric generating power plant. Duke is obligated to use commercially reasonable efforts to develop, finance, and place into commercial operation, a new power plant that will have a generating capacity at least sufficient to allow for the termination of the "Reliability Must Run" designation at the existing plant on or before the lease termination. There is a 25-acre marina and 13-acre RV resort, an 18-acre marina, and an 18-acre boatyard. These leases expire in 2021, 2029, and 2020, respectively. Goodrich owns the site just northeast of the Bayfront property, which is not a part of this study. Goodrich site is in between the Port land and the 126-acre privately-owned Mid-Bayfront property. Real estate development is a long-term cyclical business. Planning for a large-scale project such as the Chula Vista Bayfront needs to examine both current market conditions and long- term trends. It is important to be cautious of short term economic and market dips, but the main focus should be on those uses with the best upside potential, recognizing that development won't happen immediately. In addition to analyzing the demographic, tourism and traffic patterns to determine the market for conventional commercial/industrial uses, we examined case studies for a wide variety of specialized other uses: eco-tourism, sportsparks, and amusement parks. We also looked at case studies of successful waterfront redevelopment up and down the West Coast to determine their strategy and key interventions. While the Chula Vista Bayfront has been an underutilized real estate asset, there is great potential with proper planning. With 360 acres of land, 170,000 average daily vehicle trips on Interstate-5, three freeway on-ramps and one mile of waterfront, the site provides a unique opportunity for a world-class development. There are many examples of urban and suburban waterfronts that were former industrial sites that have been revitalized into vibrant commercial and recreational areas that are a benefit to the entire region. The keys to these successful redevelopments are patience and foresight. With a vision in place, success with small incremental projects can build Page 4 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 momentum and change the market's perception of an area. Well integrated residential development can be a critical catalyst. The Port of San Diego is responsible for managing this valuable asset for the benefit of the citizens of San Diego County and the State, balancing the public need for fishing, boating, commerce and recreational space with the responsibility for providing necessary infrastructure and maintaining the waterfront facilities. SUMMARY This section of the report summarizes the key conclusions and planninglland use recommendations pertaining to redevelopment of the Chula Vista Bayfront. The supporting analysis and documentation are provided in subsequent sections of this report. The Port of San Diego and the City of Chula Vista want the Bayfront master plan to be based on sound long-term economic and market principles and not be constrained by the current economic and market conditions. The planning principals as defined by Cooper Robertson Partners in their January 12th, 2004 presentation are as follows: 1. Create one Chula Vista Bayfront 2. Celebrate the serenity and the Hispanic culture of Chula Vista's Bayfront setting 3. Extend Chula Vista all the way to the Bayfront. 4. Create a Bayfront park system that marries ecological habitats and the recreational needs of the community 5. Take advantage of deep water to create an active boating waterfront 6. New development should reinforce the sense of place at the Bayfront 7. Provide 50 percent of the land area for open space (108 acres) and streets (72 acres) 8. Set aside approximately 70 percent of the developable land for employment uses (126 acres) 9. Provide approximately 20 percent of developable land for retail uses (36 acres) 10. Provide 10 percent of developable land for civic uses (18 acres) Because the Bayfront property is within State Tidelands there are limitations on development uses. Our analysis adjusts the potential demand for retail, R&D and office land uses to reflect those limitations. Those uses allowed under the Public Trust Doctrine are: Commerce Fisheries Navigation and maritime Environmental preservation Recreational Natural habitat Ancillary or incidental uses that directly promote Trust uses, uses that are supportive and necessary for trust uses, or uses that accommodate the public's enjoyment of trust lands are also permitted. Page 5 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 While there are major strengths to the site and future market trends are positive, the following issues cause the current market challenges for most non-residential uses. · Perception issue - Chula Vista Bayfront not known outside the City. . Visual Isolation - The Bayfront is not visible from the freeway - An architectural or sculptural monument could provide a gateway. . Sense of place - Existing conditions are not compatible with attracting high quality commercial development. The vacant Goodrich facility needs to be removed, which would visually open the waterfront to downtown and 1-5 traffic. The very nature of "creating a market" implies a disconnect with the current market conditions. Therefore one can't "prove" that there is demand and success future for 300,000 square feet of retail or 500,000 square feet of office, or 400-room hotel etc. What this market analysis concludes is that local conditions are conducive to attracting various uses, once certain constraints are removed. Intermediate Term Outlook We believe there is potential for numerous uses to be successful on the Bayfront, based on the regional growth prospects and Chula Vista's fair share capture of a significant portion, based on our experience with other cities in similar situations. These potential uses included: . Office / Research & Development ("R&D") . Multi-family residential . Specialty Retail . Business park . Community sportspark (softball and soccer fields for leagues/tournaments) . Recreation (amusement park) . Landmark Cultural/Civic . Sports Arena . Hotel . Conference center . Ecotourism Office/R&D Development There is a great long-term opportunity for employment generating uses at the Bayfront considering the jobs / housing imbalance in Chula Vista. We believe many office and R&D tenants can be attracted to the site due to the following factors: . Buildable land is becoming scarce/expensive in North County . South Bay workforce population is growing . Enterprise Zone and Redevelopment incentives . Executive housing is being developed in Chula Vista . Office space demand through 2030 is estimated at up to 1,500,000 sf. . R&D/light industrial demand is estimated at up to 1,000,000 sf. Page 6 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 The City will need to attract a major anchor tenant and/or build an R&D incubator facility to serve as a catalyst for future business growth. Residential Residential development is the strongest real estate market in San Diego County, with the exception of Indian gaming. Over 6,000 homes and 3,000 multi-family units have been built in Chula Vista in past three years. Home prices have appreciated by almost 100 percent since 1999, resulting in tremendous increases in land values with residential entitlements. We note that old parking lots east of downtown San Diego selling for $50 per square foot less than 4 years ago are now selling for well over $200 per square foot for high rise condo development. There is a growing trend for urban-style living that is manifesting itself throughout California and the west. Young professionals and married couples with adult children are seeking the lifestyle benefits of being near retail, entertainment, cultural and transit systems. Based on current demographics and the projected household growth, we estimate the Bayfront could support between 2,100 and 3,000 multi-family units over the next two decades, if development is integrated near the waterfront and provides Bay views. Retail Development In general, there are always retail opportunities on waterfronts in urban locations. At the subject site, the potential is enhanced by the tremendous retail demand from people traveling on 1-5 to and from the Mexico border. According to Sandag, over 15 million vehicles cross the border into the U.S. at San Ysidro each year, with another 4 million crossing at Otay Mesa. The key to a really successful project is integrating the retail with enough other "activity" sources to create a critical mass of visitors that is a draw in itself. Demand from local residents spending on just the recreational component of household spending (Le. dining out, recreation and entertainment) can support an estimated at 100,000 square feet. By capturing impulse and convenience demand from tourists traveling to and from Mexico, the Bayfront can be expected to support an additional 150,000 square feet. If unique regional attractions can be developed that draw visitors from throughout San Diego County, demand is estimated for 250,000 to 500,000 square feet of additional retail space. Of course a larger retail entertainment complex could have a negative impact on existing and planned retail centers within Chula Vista. Potential concepts for the Bayfront include: 1. A "Mills" type center with a recreation and restaurant focus, similar to the project recently approved for the San Francisco waterfront on Piers 27-31 or an entertainment and retail center like the Block at Orange. 2. A 'Granville Island" type of mixed-use center with public market, outdoor performances, arts and crafts workshops and galleries. 3. Bazaar del Mundo complex with Mexican-themed shops, restaurants and entertainment. 4. A "Downtown Disney" type center with entertainment, restaurants and specialty shopping. Page 7 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 Sports Arena There has been some discussion in the City of San Diego of demolishing the existing San Diego Sports Arena. The San Diego Chargers proposed building a new arena adjacent to a new football stadium, but this has been rejected. A Sports Arena facility would bring a wide range of attractions, including minor league and potentially major league sporting events, concerts, circus acts etc. Such a use would likely require 50 acres for the facility and related surface parking (and would generate substantial evening and weekend traffic). Hotel Development The waterfront is an ideal location for a first class hotel. In fact several hotels have been proposed for the Mid-Bayfront site. While there is a limit to the number of hotel rooms that can be supported at this time, the expected 8 million square foot growth in office and R&D development in Chula Vista over the next 20 to 30 years will support significant new hotels throughout the City. The potential redevelopment of the Bayfront with 2 to 3 million square feet of commercial office and R&D uses, could support first class hotels totaling at least 400 rooms. Conference Center Development There is local demand for a public meeting/banquet facility that can accommodate 500 to 1,000 people. Conference centers can be used for such functions, but can not depend solely on them for economic feasibility. Conference and convention demand is not local like office/industrial or retail uses. Demand from most large organizations can be met anywhere in the state or country, if the facility and the amenities are attractive enough. According to the San Diego Convention Center Corporation, there is demand today from numerous small regional and State organizations for mid-range convention facilities that they are unable to accommodate. However, these groups are very cost sensitive and cannot afford first class hotel rates. High-end convention centers or conference centers benefit from a significant number of corporate headquarters or government offices in the area to attract group meetings. Further, regional conferences and conventions demand nearby amenities and good quality hotel rooms. Niche hotels and convention centers have been developed in many diverse locations, outside of major urban centers. They most typically range in size from 150-rooms and 15,000 square feet of meeting space to 350-rooms and 30,000 square feet of meeting space. A small conference center/community center of 15,000 square feet, that takes advantage of the local demand and some of the overflow demand from the main Convention Center, could be a catalyst to establish the awareness of the Bayfront area. As expected employment growth occurs and other amenities are developed, a larger convention facility of 50,000 square feet or more could be built in the later phases of development. Page 8 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 Ecotourism Ecotourism is not a development oriented land-use per se, but rather the result of a regional image. It is beyond the realm of any master planning effort for a site the size of the Bayfront to "create" an ecotourism project. In areas with large expanses of nature tourists will come for day visits and overnight camping. In areas of great biological and ecological diversity or unique attractions, hotels can be developed. Without other types of attractions, ecotourism activity is insufficient to support any commercial development. The existing wildlife refuges in the South Bay, while significant biological preserves that draw many daytime visitors, are too dispersed to attract a significant enough number of overnight visitors to support a major hotel and convention center. Because of the adjacent wildlife refuge and the visitors it brings to the Bayfront, the master plan should provide an open space network that connects them together. Caveats A master plan should also allow for a variety of uses that can respond to future market opportunities, rather than entirely dictate specific uses based on today's current market and vision. The size and timing of these uses depend on a great number of variables such as potential traffic and other environmental constraints that would limit the amount of development or require expensive mitigation measures. There are also conditions precedent to the implementation of these uses (Le. infrastructure improvements, removal of old industrial buildings etc.), the timing of which is will be determined later in the planning process. IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES AND PHASING With these "caveats" regarding existing constraints, Sedway Group has developed some planning parameters/guidelines for potential land uses including approximate building size, site area, desired location within the Bayfront. Because these development parameters vary based on adjacent uses, we have prepared a number of "themed" development scenarios with some level of market support to illustrate the parameters for each land use as well as the phasing of the uses in the context of an overall plan concept. Incorporating residential development greatly enhances the feasibility of the overall Bayfront redevelopment. It can increase demand for nearby commercial uses and it will accelerate the phasing of development. Its strong financial condition can provide critical early funding for environmental cleanup, infrastructure and park improvements. Because the Bayfront is so large, the master plan should include a wide variety of land uses. To initiate discussion, we have devised three alternative land use scenarios to explain the physical and location parameters of different land uses in different conditions. There are significant financial implications for public investment and rent payments to the Port that will be analyzed per the master planning timetable. For all three scenarios we have assumed that open space and roads are approximately 180 acres of the Port's 360 acres and that 126 acres (of current Mid-Bayfront) would be residential. Page 9 CHULA VISTA SA YFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 Alternative 1 - "Jobs" Emphasis In this scenario, we envision a predominate land use mix of office, R&D and business park uses that would be consistent with the 70% jobs / 20% retail / 10% civic land use mixed presented by Cooper Robertson Partners to the City and the Citizen's Advisory Committee on January 12th, 2004. We suggest a large-scale research park potentially with an environmental research focus. It would be important to set-aside a prime site of 20 to 40 acres to attract an anchor tenant headquarters facility. Total office/R&D development could be up to 2.5 million square feet on 100 acres, assuming a range of 2-story to 6-story building heights. Ten to 15 acres should be set-aside for a business class hotel and conference facility of approximately 300+ rooms and 30,000 square feet of meeting space, expected to be attractive as occupancy reaches 750,000 square feet. Key to the success of this scenario is the ability to attract a major anchor tenant as early as possible, as well as providing an incubator type facility to develop new businesses. This will likely require some form of financial assistance, as these users are sought by economic development organizations throughout the State and across the United States. Existing marinas and waterfront uses would be compatible, so that an initial phase of development could occur within five years. However, full build-out in excess of 2.0 million square feet would likely require 20 to 30 years. Because of the waterfront and the freeway exposure, there is significant opportunity for 200,000 to 300,000 square feet of retail/restaurants to be developed on 30 acres of land within the next five years. A significant portion of the residential development could be ideally integrated with the retail center to create a more urban environment. Alternative 2 - "Tourism/Entertainment Emphasis" In addition to the Jobs Emphasis scenario, Sedway Group believes that another alternative that focuses on tourism related retail entertainment uses is also viable for the Bayfront. Because the Bayfront is so large, this scenario would still include a major employmenVbusiness park focus totaling 60 to 70 acres that could accommodate at least 1.5 million square feet. The retail/entertainment component would be larger than Alternative 1, with at least 600,000 square feet on 50 to 75 acres, but it will need to be characterized by numerous "anchor tenants" who bring a unique experience to San Diego County. The Granville Island development in Vancouver, BC, intersperses small-scale components of industrial (glass, metal and woodworking artist studios), public market, retail, entertainment, boutique hotels and children's playground throughout the entire site. While each use would be approximately 100,000 to 200,000 square feet, there could be 1,000,000 square feet at full build-out in 15-20 years. Residential development would be a critical catalyst to make this concept feasible in the early years. Pocket parks should be provided throughout the site, with one large plaza area that can act as a public gathering spot. The parking areas should be focused along the eastern boundary Page 1 0 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 near the freeway offramps. Total land area including parking would probably entail 75 acres to 100 acres. This scenario would be compatible with retaining most of the existing uses at the Bayfront. Development would be done in two or three phases following removal of the vacant Goodrich buildings, provided some direct connections to an active waterfront are made available. A 50 to 60-acre amusement park similar to the Santa Monica's Pacific Park or the Santa Cruz Boardwalk would be another use that could support an adjacent 25-acre retail/entertainment center of 250,000 square feet. However, this type of development, by itself would not be conducive to attracting a major first class hotel, nor would it be compatible with nearby residential uses.. Another tourist development might be an architectural landmark like the "world class" attractions at the Monterey Bay Aquarium, Bilbao's Guggenheim museum, or the new Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles. As reported in the December issue of Urban Land, "Cities are using high-image architecture to form an identity. In smaller communities, an architectural icon can put a place on the map" As shown in Bilbao, Spain the Guggenheim Museum has helped turn an unglamorous port into an international destination where more than 5 million tourists have spent $500 million in the past six years. However, this required a subsidy the Bilbao reported to cover the cost of the museum and its accompanying endowments. If successful, such an architectural icon could help the Port attract several business class and luxury hotels, and a 50,000 to 100,000 square foot convention center could follow. Alternative 3 - "Civic Emphasis" While not as financially attractive as the other scenarios, Sedway Group believes a more evenly balanced mix of uses with a larger civic focus could also be viable if a major public facility can be financed. While a business park (60 to 70 acres) and retail/entertainment center (25 to 30 acres) would have a significant presence in the master plan, one of the largest components of this alternative would be for civic uses. There has been some discussion of possibly replacing the existing San Diego Sports Arena at the Bayfront. A Sports Arena could be a major anchor tenant for the master plan, but would require significant public investment. Such a facility would bring a wide range of attractions, including sporting events, concerts, circus acts etc. An arena would likely require 50 acres for the facility and related surface parking (and would generate substantial evening and weekend traffic). In our review of other major sports arenas built in suburban communities the key to the most successful facilities is locating them within an existing district with a range of other activities available 365 days a year, thus the need for a major adjacent retail component. Office/industrial uses would also benefit from shared parking arrangements, since their peak demand would be opposite the recreational activity. As shown by the tremendous housing development occurring near the Staples Center arena in Los Angeles, residential can coexist with an enclosed arena. Page 11 CHULA VISTA BAYFRONT MASTER PLAN Task 4a: Market Analysis - DRAFT March 30, 2004 A smaller, less expensive civic alternative could involve a 40 acre sportspark for the benefit of South County residents and to attract regional and national softball, soccer and other tournaments. Next Steps As shown in the above scenarios, there are a wide range of uses that could be developed on the Baytront. To be successful, the City and the Port need to select an appropriate mix of uses and then develop a strategic implementation plan to attract the catalytic project(s). There are, of course substantial differences in the economic benefits (Le. jobs, tax revenues) and financial feasibility and resulting ground rent associated with each. As the planning effort progresses and the three alternatives are defined, Sedway Group will examine the economic and financial consequences of each land use component. Page 12 . . Z m CD 0 ~ 0 ~ =:s :;> 0 o S ~ ~. ~. 0 o ~ =:s =:s ~ ~ CD ~ o ~ o rn S 00. 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