HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Packet 2001/11/15
ADJOURNED REGULAR MEETING OF THE CITY COUNCIL
AGENDA I declare under penalty of perjury that I am
employed by the City of Chula Vista in the
Office of the City Clerk and that I posted thia
document on the bulletin board according to
Council Conference Rootl!rown Act requirementa.
City Hall Dated H-Ib-V! Signed ~
276 Fourth Avenue
November IS, 2001 4:00 P.M.
CALL TO ORDER
ROLL CALL: Councilmembers Davis, Rindone, Padilla, Salas, and Mayor Horton
1. CITY OF CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN (EDS)
In late 2000, Council approved an agreement with Economic Research Associates (ERA)
for the preparation of a Chula Vista Economic Development Strategy (EDS) and Economic
Development Element of the City's General Plan Update. The contract is in the amount of
$161,000. In February, 2001, Council created an EDS Blue Ribbon Steering Committee
representing 24 different local and regional entities. Since that time staff has been working
with ERA and the Steering Committee to prepare a series of reports that lay the groundwork
for the development of the Economic Development Strategy - an Action Plan with Goals
and Objectives, Timeftames and allocated resources.
At the November 15 EDS workshop, staff will provide Council with an update of these
activities and accomplishments; solicit Council comments; and request approval of
certain benchmark items, including a proposed Economic Vision Statement.
ORAL COMMUNICATIONS
ADJOURNMENT to the Adjourned Regular Meeting on Monday, November 19, 2001 at
5:00 p.m. in the Council Conference Room, and thence to the Adjourned
Regular Meeting on Tuesday, November 20, 2001 at 4:30 p.m. in the
Council Conference Room, and thence to the Regular Meeting on
Tuesday, November 20, 2001 at 6:00 p.m. in the Council Chambers.
Idecle mder penalty of perjury that \l1li
employ..,j by the City of Chula Vista In the
Office of the City Clerk and that I potted this
document on the bulletin board ICCOfdIng to
NOTICE OF ADJOURNm~requirementa. 5lJp
Dated 11 -/1>-0 Signed 1 ðJ fù/¥
Notice is hereby given that, at its Regular Meeting of November 13, 2001, the
City Council adjourned said meeting to an Adjourned Regular Meeting to be
held on Thursday, November 15, 2001, at 4:00 p.m. in the Council Conference
Room, for the purpose of discussing the Economic Development Strategic Plan;
and thence to an Adjourned Regular Meeting to be held in closed session on
Monday, November 19, 2001, at 5:00 p.m. in the Administration Conference
Room, for the purpose of administering performance evaluations for the City
Clerk and City Manager. Both Conference Rooms are located in City Hall, 276
Fourth Avenue.
- ~ -~l--L &~.::zr:~
Dated: November 15,2001 Susan Bigelow, City Clerk
CITY COUNCIL AGENDA STATEMENT
ITEM NO.: I
MEETING DATE: 11/15/01
ITEM TITLE: COUNCIL WORKSHOP ON THE CITY OF CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN (EDS)
SUBMlnED BY: COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR ~ ~
REVIEWED BY: CITY MANAG~
4/5THS VOTE: YES D NO ŒJ
BACKGROUND
In late 2000, Council approved an agreement with Economic Research Associates (ERA) for the
preparation of a Chula Vista Economic Development Strategy (EDS) and Economic Development
Element of the City's General Plan Update. The contract is in the amount of $161,000. In
February, 2001, Council created an EDS Blue Ribbon Steering Committee representing 24 different
local and regional entities. Since that time staff has been working with ERA and the Steering
Committee to prepare a series of reports that lay the groundwork for the development of the
Economic Development Strategy - an Action Plan with Goals and Objectives, Timeframes and
allocated resources.
At the November 15 EDS workshop, staff will provide Council with an update of these activities and
accomplishments; solicit Council comments; and request approval of certain benchmark items,
including a proposed Economic Vision Statement.
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends that Council hold a workshop on the City's Economic Development Strategy
(EDS) in order to:
1. Receive an update from staff and ERA on the EDS process and accomplishments to-date.
2. Consider and comment on ERA reports prepared to-date, including; "Inventory of Local
and Regional Existing Economic Development Policies and Plans" (Tab 1\; Stakeholder
and Business Interview Results (Tab 2); Chula Vista Economic Base Analysis (Tab 3); ond
preliminary "Mexico Market Analysis" findings (Tab 4).
3. Receive direct input from members of the EDS Blue Ribbon Steering Committee, Chula
Vista Economic Development Commission, and Chula Vista Planning Commission.
4. Review and approve the proposed Chula Vista Economic Vision 2020.cI9Q....2l. (Note: the
Vision Statement is subject to revision at later stages of the EDS process).
5. Review and comment on the proposed Issue Paper topics (Tab 6).
(- I
PAGE 2, ITEM NO.:
MEETING DATE: 11/15/01
STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION
The EDS Blue Ribbon Steering Committee, appointed by Council, held its initial workshop in July
2001 (see Membership, Tab 7). Three (3) Subcommittees were subsequently formed, including:
1) Citywide Issues; 2) Subarea Issues; and 3) Industry Cluster Issues. Each Subcommittee has
held 2 meetings (in August and October). Input from these meetings has been incorporated into
the materials being presented at the workshop. Additionally, members of the Steering Committee
will be in attendance and will provide comment.
The City's Economic Development Commission has identified the Economic Development
Strategy as a "Priority Project". The former EDC Chair sits on the EDS Blue Ribbon Steering
Committee and all EDC Commissioners sit on one or more of the Blue Ribbon Steering
Committee Subcommittees. The EDC Chair will be attending the workshop and provide
comment.
An EDS presentation was made to the City's Planning Commission. Planning Commissioner
comments have been included in the materials being presented to Council. A Planning
Commissioner will also make comments.
DISCUSSION
A. EDS TASKS
The primary tasks of the EDS and their status are listed below.
TASK STATUS
1. Document existing economic development related Completed
policies and plans
2. Interview stakeholders regarding City strengths and Completed
weaknesses
3. Prepare Economic Base AnalySis Final Draft Completed
4. Assess the Mexican impact on Chula Vista Partially completed
5. Develop Economic Vision Pendin¡:¡ Council approval
6. Identify key issues that need to be addressed Completed
7. Develop Issue Papers for complex and/or controversial In process
issues - identify alternative strategies
8. Prepare Economic Development Strategy (including Not yet started
Goals, Objectives, Timeframes, and Responsible
Parties)
9. Prepare Economic Development Element of General Not yet started
Plan
1-2-
PAGE 3, ITEM NO.:
MEETING DATE: 11/15/01
B. EDS SCHEDULE
The EDS is scheduled to be completed and presented to Council in the summer of 2002,
approximately 8 months from now. This timing allows for integration of economic development
issues and strategies into the General Plan update (scheduled for completion in 2004). Key next
steps include:
0 ERNstaff complete Draft Issue Papers
0 ERN staff complete Targeted Industry Report
0 ERN staff complete Mexico Market Analysis
0 Blue Ribbon Subcommittee meetings - review above reports and discuss
alternative strategies
0 Blue Ribbon Steering Committee Workshop #2 - identify recommended strategies
0 Council Workshop - review recommended strategies
0 ERNstaff prepare EDS Draft Goals, Objectives, Actions, Responsible Parties,
Timeframes, Resources
0 Blue Ribbon Steering Committee Workshop #3 - review Draft EDS
0 Council Workshop - review and adopt EDS
0 ERNstaff prepare ED Element of General Plan Update
'", " FISCAL IMPACT
As noted, Council previously approved funds for contracting with ERA to assist staff in the
development of the EDS. During the most recent budget cycle, staff requested an enhancement
to cover costs associated with the EDS Blue Ribbon Committee and public participation such as:
special equipment for meetings and presentations, meals and meeting rooms, printing, etc. Staff
was asked to return later in the process with a budget request. Staff will be returning at a future
Council meeting with a budget supplement request.
AnACHMENTS
See Notebook Index
J:\COMMDEV\DYE\EDS\COUNCll WORKSHOP AGENDA STATEMENT.doc
(- 3
Purpose of EDS Workshop
. EDS process update
. Preliminary findings
. Blue Ribbon Steering Committee comments
. Council feedback and direction
. Next steps
Why Prepare an EDS-
a refresher
. Understand Chula Vista's economic
strengths and weaknesses
. Establish an Economic Vision
. Development strategy to achieve that
. .
vIsion
. Citywide pol icies
. Publ ie/private action plan with goals,
objectives, timeframes, responsible parties,
and allocation of resources
u ---------~
How Does EDS Relate to the
General Plan Update?
. Basis for new Economic Development
Element of General Plan
. ED Strategies help guide land use and
other G P related pol icies and decisions
~ ~ - ~--------------~--~ ---~---~-~
Key Participants in EDS
. City Counci I
. Business Response Team (BRT)
. Economic Research Associates (ERA)
. Blue Ribbon Steering
Committee/Chula Vista EDC
. Focus Groups/Surveys
E DS Scope of Work & Status
Identify existing ED Policies done
Prepare Economic Base done
Analysis
Create an Economic Vision done
Identify and analyze critical .
ongol ng
EDS issues
Identify Targeted future
Businesses
Prepare Econ. Dev. Strategy future
EDS Steering Committee/
Subcommittees
Kick-Off Workshop July
Subcommittee Meetings Aug & Oct
1. Citywide Issues
2. Subarea Issues
3. Industry Cluster Issues
EDS Process
observations
. Need for "brutal honesty" in assessing our potential
. Energizing impact of open dialogue & outside input
. Need to get the word out - to our own residents,
potential investors, partners!
. Opportunities for CV leadership in regional ED issues
. Excitement about local and regional collaboration
. Chula Vista "on the verge"
Economic Base Analysis
CV Economic Base Analysis
Research & analysis to-date lays
foundation for:
. Inventorying our existing assets & liabilities
. Understanding our ED potential within the
region
. Setting ambitious but realistic goals
. Evaluating ED related policies
. Measuring future EDS implementation
progress
(hula Vista's Economy
POPULATION
Chula Vista Population & Number of Households,
Estimates and Forecasts
300,000
250,000 -------
200,000
150,000 ---- -----
100,000 -----
50,000 -----
-
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1-- Population -- Number of Households I
I~_-- --- .JChUIa Vista Population Distrihution, 1995 (1 Dot = 200 persons)
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LUE RIBBON SPEAKERS
Tj Charles Moore, Chair, CV EDC
Ij¡ Julie Meier Wright, Pres. & CEO, SDREDC
Ij¡ Mike Philbin, Sr. V.P., John Burnham RE
Ij¡ Chuck Nathanson, Exec. Dir., SD Dialogue
Ij¡ Larry Fitch, CEO, Workforce Partnership,
Inc.
Charles Moore
Chai r
Chula Vista Economic Development Commission
Julie Meier Wright
President & CEO
San Diego Regional Economic Development
Corporation
Mike Philbin
Sr. VP, john Burnham RE
Historical Lan¡d AbiSOr
Time Frame SA uClre<F e.et
Developed
. Pre 1980 . i Hionsf
. 1980-1989 . Ilion sf
. 1990-1995 . Ii
. 1996-2000
*Estimated av
** Actual- EDC/S
Immediately Available
-1996-2000 3,1 96A
-Current Inventory J".,
. Severe S
. Only 546 40% Mi
- Almost Poway
Long Term Available
. 10,770 gross acres
. Years to Del iver
. Mid County- 631 acres/
. South County -5,330 acr
. 78 corridor -2,667 acres
Regional Comparison
Cost Of Fees And Permits Pe
Of Building Area
City Industrial Office
Carlsbad $3.52 $5.57 $
Chula Vista $9.15
Escondido $2.86
Oceamide $2.38 $3.05
Poway $1.49
San Diego (City) $4.87
San Diego (Count~ $1.33
Vista $3.26
* Building Industry Association (BIA) 2001.2002 Fee Survey
** Cost Per Unit
Chuck Nathanson
Executive Director
SD Dialogue
Disc u s s i 0 n/ R ec 0 m men d at ion s
Larry Fitch
CEO
Workforce Partnership, Inc.
STAFF AND BLUE RIBBON
COMMITTEE
RECOMMEN DA TIONS
. Discuss and provide direction to staff
. Preliminary EDS findings and input
. Proposed Issue Paper topics
. Approve "ChulaVista Economic Vision 2020"
NEXT STEPS
Complete -
. Issue Papers
. Targeted Industry Analysis
. Mexico Market Analysis
Present alternative strategies to Steering
Committee and Council
Prepare Draft EDS
. Goals, Objectives, Actions, Responsible Parties,
Timeframes, Resources
Present Draft EDS to Steering
Committee and Council
Thanks to EDS Participants
Adjourn Workshop
ECONOMIC
DEVE LOPME NT
STRATEGY (EDS)
City Council Workshop
Thursday, Nov. 15, 2001
4:00 pm
interviews with stakeholders
RECOMMENDED POLICY ACTIONS
. Complete SR 125
. Invest in/ Encourage:
~Commercial district amenities (landscaping, etc)
~Upscale Hotels
~World-class events
~Quality Research university, schools
~Best long-term use of oceanfront property
~Dense urban hub at Otay Ranch EUC
~Downtown: Raise height limit; condo zoning; more
affordable housing
. Simplify permitting process
. Promote state and local fiscal reform
Mexican Market Analysis
mexican market analysis
SURVEY OF 425 LOCAL BUSINESSES
. Percentage of sales to Mexican n¡ buyers
Avg: 24% . ...........i)
Retail trade: 34% .. ~
. Percentage of supplies purchased from Mexico
Avg: 2%
Manufacturing: 7%
. Percentage of employees commuting from
Mexico
Avg: 10%
Manufacturing: 19%
mexican market analysis
SURVEY OF LOCAL BUSINESSES, cont.
% AFFILIA TION WITH A MAQUILADORA
Manufacturing 13.5%
Who Ie sale Trade 14.3%
Average 13.9%
mexico market analysis
LOCAL RETAILER FOCUS GROUP
. Importance of Mexican consumer
. Characteristics of Mexican shoppers
. Challenges/Opportunities for CV
~ Restau rants
~Entertainment
~ H ote I
~ Broadway corridor
. Sept 11 and other "risks"
Vision
chula vista economic vision
ISION THEMES
BROAD RANGE OF EMPLOYMENT
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHULA VISTAN5
. Offer desirable employment centers
. Create rich environment for:
. Corporate headquarters
. High tech R&D and production centers
. Importers/exporters serving Mexico and the
Pacific Rim
chula vista economic vision
VISION THEMES
.:. EDUCATION CRITICAL TO CHULA
VISTA'S ECONOMIC SUCCESS
. First-rate community college
. Prestigious research university and/or
technology institute
. Superior primary & secondary schools
chula vista economic vision
VISION THEMES
.:.CHULA VISTA, SOUTH COUNTY'S
PREMIER RECREATIONAL, CULTURAL,
COMMERCIAL & ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
. Tourist destination with bayside resorts
. Vibrant, mixed-use people places
. Celebrated art and cultural venues
. Plentifu I parks, open spaces
chula vista economic vision
VISION THEMES
.:. CHULA VISTA, THE "FACE OF CALIFORNIA"
. Multi-cultural awareness embracing diversity
in all aspects of business and social fabric
. Hub of internationally-oriented trade, services,
government, and intellectual pursuit
understanding the issues
ISSUE PAPERS
. Define specific issue
. Identify & evaluate alternative strategies
. Discuss cost/benefits of each strategy
. Present opportun ities for publ idprivate,
cross-jurisdictional collaborations
understanding the issues
ISSUE PAPER TOPICS
. Inventory of Assets and Liabilities - CV and So. Co.
. Workforce Preparedness - CV and So. Co.
. International Trade
. Tourism and Hospitality
. Employment Opportunities /
. Jobs to Housing Balance
. University Campus
. "East / West Divide"
. land Use Decisions: Fiscal Sustainability
. Business Support
. Economic Development Marketing
Blue Ribbon Committee
Chula Vista's Economy
WORKFORCE
Chula Vista Workforce Age Groups
40,0%
35,0%
s:::
E 30,0%
..!!!
5. 25.0%
0 ~:~
~ 20,0% ~------
0
~ 15,0%
~
ffi 100% uu - -
c.. '
5.0% ------------- -
0.0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
¡ -+-18-29 -- 30-54 -- 55-69 :
I ---~
Chula Vista's Economy
NCOME
Median Household Income,
Estimates and Forecasts
$60,000 . ..m . i
~ $50.000 -.~-I
oS $40,000 ~. . .. ¡
""0
0
-ã3 $30,000- -
VI
::J
~ $20,000 - - I
,
$10,000 -1
I
$- ;
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
I ------ .-.1
-+- Chula Vista Median Income
-+- San Diego Region Median Income'
- - _..J
~ource: SA~DAG& ~conomi~s Re~earch_- - - -- _J
c--_n _I Chula Vista Median Household Income (1995)
MediaD Do_bold 1....._1995
< $30,000
$30,000 - $39,999
I!ìI1I!11 $40,000 - $S4,999
- $55,000-$74,999
- >$75,000
!:if
1
Chula Vista's Economy
INDUSTRY
Employment by Industry
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
~~~ ! ¿tl I I !~ ~ ; ~ ;~
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o,~õ ê 8..§~ ~ tj æ~~ ì5 ~8o
~ u '" ~E" 0 ~ ~~ ~ w~~
~ "'Eo. ~ - "",
~8! s ~'"
'" San Diego Region Chula Vista
Chula Vista's Economy
INDUSTRY
Proportion of Employment in Selected Industries, Comparison
12%
10%
8%--
6% -- ---
4% --
2%
0%
Apparel & Primary Metal & Transportation Measuring, General Food Stores Heakh Services
Fabrics Fabricated Metal Equip. Analyzing & Merchandise
Prod. Controlling Stores II Chula Vi'>ta
Instruments . San Diego
Chula Vista's Economy
EMPLOYMENT
Chula Vista Employment Growth,
Esti mates and Forecasts
100,000
90,000 ----
80,000 ------------ -
70,000 -
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000 -- -------------
20,000 ---------- - -
10,000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Chula Vista's Economy
EMPLOYMENT
Chula Vista Employment as a % of Regional
Employment, by Industry
Total Empbyment I
I
Self Empbyment and Domestic Workers
Miitary I I I
Govemment
I , I
Services
I I
Fi1ance, Insurance and Real Estate
I I I
Retai Trade
I
Wholesale Trade
I
TransportatiJn, CommunicatiJns, and Pubic Utiities
I
Manufacturing
Agriculture, Mini1g & Construction
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Chula Vista's Economy
CLUSTER EMPLOYMENT
------- -------
CV Cluster Employment as Proportion of Regional Cluster Employment
--- - --- ----
- - - - ---
Churn VISta Cluster Employment as a Proportion of Regional Cluster Employment
Total Employment I
Total Cluster Employment I
Visitor Industry Services I
Software & Computer Services I
Recreational Goods Manufacturing
Medical Services I
Horticulture I
Fruit & Vegetables I
Financial Services I
Environmental Technology I
Entertainment & Amusement I
Defense & Transportation Manufacturing
Computer & Electronics Manufacturing I
Communications
Business Services
Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals
Biomedical Products
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Chula Vista's Economy
FIRM SIZE
Percent of Firms by Size Percent of Employment
by Firm Size
90% 30%
80% - ---
70% -------- ---- 25% ----
60% ----- ---- 20%
50% -----
40% ---- --- 15%
30% --------
10%
20% ----
10% ---- - ------ 5%
0% 0%
1 to 19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 More 1 to 19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 More than
Number of Employees than 500 Number of Employees 500
Source: Inside Prospects and City of Chula Vista Community Development Department
Chula Vista's Economy
RETAIL TRENDS
Chula Vista Taxable Sales, Retail Categories
'"
~ :~':::_u -= ---I
0 '
~ $2,000 r--- ul
"* $1,500 - .-
t $1;: Ii=-- ~Iil =.:.... ~ ~-IIl~.
'ê $-j-~ -. --ClUJ.], 8l.,8J,.J, 8JJ
...... Co Co Co Co Co Co"1:J '" Co
::J ::J ::J ::J ::J ::J C C ::J
000000 ro 00
l5 l5 l5 l5 l5 l5 gt ß l5
KJ ~ KJ en :s! ¡;;:C V1 KJ
.... '6"" .S 0 .... ~ ~ ....
.s C .s ~ .s::: 1Y 2 KJ .- .s
V1 ro V1 .s ¡x ro ro:= i:: V1
-.s::: ""::J::E QlCo QI
~ ~ -g 0 0 en OCO V1 19
ro QI tE "1:J J: C Qla¡ QI
-- 2t::E 16 '6 ~ eX
illll199iJl « ¡;; en = 0 ....
.... C ::J E QI
. 1995 :g 'ß [J:I.s £0
QI UJ ::J
. 0 1999 (!) «;;:c
ET AI L TREN DS
Per Capita Taxable Sales, 1999
$9,000
$8,000 -- --- - - ---
-- - - - -- - -----
$7,000 ------ ---- ----
$6,000 - -
$5,000
$4,000 - - ---- ------ -----
$3,000 ---
-- ---
$2,000
$1,000 - --
$-
Retail Stores Totals All Other Outlets
San Diego Region Chula Vista
Chula Vista's Economy
MEXICO
Tijuana Maquiladoras, Tijuana Maquiladoras,
Number of Establishments and Value Number of Employees
180,000
--.. .. _u / 160,000
------- . ~- m:~~~ ----
-- u- - .--.L---_n---1 80,000
~~ 60,000
~ 40,000
20,000
0 0
1990_1991 1992 1993- 1994 !995 1996 199? 19~8_,1999 d¡d¡t::J d¡d¡'> d¡d¡':v d¡d¡'? d¡ct d¡d¡'> d¡d¡'f:' d¡d¡-;' d¡d¡'P d¡d¡d¡
-.- Establishments- ~ Aggregate VallJ~ (Millions $) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
I nterviews with Stakeholders
{
interviews with stakeholders
How Chula Vista Economy Has
Changed
. Transition from agriculture to mom & pop
businesses... Rohr and small manufacturing...
current push for technology
. Reduced role of defense industry
. New large-scale residential development
. Major visitor attractions
. Large percentage of workforce commuting north
. Economic transition leaving portion of population
behind - Emergence of new "east-west divide"
interviews with stakeholders
Chula Vista's Competitive Advantages
. Rapidly expanding population with high incomes
. Abundance of quality, affordable housing
. Vacant land, including large parcels
. Harbor with development potential
. Skilled, bilingual labor base
. Proximity to MX & DT San Diego
. Easier commute into Chula Vista
. History of being well-planned
interviews with stakeholders
Chula Vista's Disadvantages!
arriers to Economic Development
. Negative image: lower income/ higher crime/
poorer schools/ racial stereotypes
. First impressions on 1-5
. Unattractive industrial areas of Bayfront
. lack of upscale retail, restaurants, hotels
. lack of major higher ed facilities
. Traffic congestion, including east/west routes
Disadvantages, cont.
. lack of industrially zoned sites with infrastructure
. Hightech company executives live in the north
. Perception that Chula Vista is far away
. land priced for end user, not for "spec" builder
. Development fees on east side highest in county
. City emphasis on mitigating City's risk vs
promoting ED
. State & Fed ignorance re SDfTJ interdependence;
unwillingness to improve border crossing
interviews with stakeholders
Opportunities for CV Economy
. Development moving south due to lack of land
. Redevelopment near 1-5 to help change image and
attract higher quality retail
. High quality waterfront hotels and restaurants -
intercept visitors to and from border
. Amateur sporting events linked to OTC
. DT projects such as Gateway to do what Horton
Plaza did for DT San Diego
. More fluid border as technology improves
. Improved communication between City
departments and speedier responses to business
City of Chula Vista
Economic Development
Strategy
(EDS)
Council Workshop
November 15,2001
Table of Contents
TAB 1 INVENTORY OF LOCAL AND REGIONAL
EXISTING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
POLICIES AND PLANS
TAB 2 STAKEHOLDER AND BUSINESS
INTERVIEW RESULTS
TAB 3 CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS
TAB 4 PRELIMINARY "MEXICO MARKET
ANALYSIS" FINDINGS
TABS CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC VISION 2020
TAB 6 PROPOSED ISSUE PAPER TOPICS
TAB 7 EDS BLUE RIBBON STEERING COMMlnEE
MEMBERSHIP
TAB 8 POWER POINT HANDOUT
~
/""",
Economics Research Associates
REVISED
DR AFT.
INVENTORY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT REPORTS AND EXISTING
ECO'NOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES
Submitted to
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Submitted by
Economics Research Associates
March 29. 2001
ERA Project No. 13879
'--
954 5'h Avenue Su'" 214
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REPORTS...................................................... 1
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES & STRATEGIES ........................2
IMPLIC\.TIONS FOR CHULA VISTA............................................................................................4
CHULA VISTA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOP~IENT POLICIES............................................. 5
GENERALPLA,'lPOLICIES........................................................................................................6
The Yision......................................................................................................................... 6
Land Use Element - Goals and Objeem'es - Economic Base of the City ............................. 7
Land Use Element - Goals and Objecm'es.. Retail Commercial Development.................... 7
Land Cse Element - Goals and Objecm'is - Higher Education and Cultural Åctivities....... 8
Land Cse Element - Goals and Objeem'es - Water Use and Reclamation .......................... 8
Land Use Element - Goals and Objecm'es -Relationship to the Surrounding Region......... 9
Land Cse Element.. Goals and Objecm'es.- Growth Management..................................... 9
Land ["se Element - Spec(fic Plan and ZonIng .................................................................. I 0
Land Cse Element - Hignrise Development ......................................................................1 0
Land Cse Element - Fisc:ll Impact Analysis...................................................................... I 0
Land Use Element - ('rban Core, Eastern Crban Center and Community Activity Centers I I
Circ-"Iation Element - Puroose.......................................................................................... 12
Circ-"Iation Elemênt. Fre-"'ays........................................................................................12
Public Facilities Element - Goals and Objectives - Water Facility Planning..................... I 2
Circ-"Iation Element - Ha::ardous Waste .\Ianagement Planning ....................................... 12
Housing Element - Needs. Resources and Constraints ...................................................... 13
Housing Element - Camprehensive Housing Plan - Slatement of Purpose......................... 15
Housing Element - Comprehensive Housing Plan -.Implementing Actions........................15
Growrh Management Program -Introduction ................................................................... 16
Growth J[anagement Program - Growth .\[anagement Issues ...........................................16
Growth Management Program - Goals and Objectives ..................................................... I ï
Growth .Hanagement Program - Policies.. Public Facilities and Services ........................ I 7
Growth ¡\,fanagement Program - Policies - Healrhy Economy.......................................... 18
Growrh Management Program -Part 1.............................................................................18
CHL1.A VlST AEcONo~nc DE\"ELOP~NT Fr_-\.." ......................................................................19
REDE\ "ELOP~!L'IT PLANS......................................... ...............................................................22
Bayfront Redevelopment Project o4rea...............................................................................22
Southwest Redevelopment Project Areo.............................................................................24
Otay VaIJey Road ProjeCl Area .........................................................................................25
Town Centre Redevelopment Plan.....................................................................................26
Town Centre No. 2 Project Area................................................................................ .......27
Redevelopment Agency Project Area Implementation Plans 2000-2004.............................28
OTHER CITY ECONOMIC DE\"ELOPJdENT POLIClEs...................................................................29
Industrial Land Supp(v Resolution ....................................................................................29
City Council Workshops ...................................................................................................3I
, IDI
"'~'.onomics Research Associates
MEMORANDUM
TO: Cheryl Dye
Economic Development Manager
City ofChula Vista
FRml Bill Anderson
Vice President
Ecanamics Research Associates
DATE February 24, 2001 (revised March 27, 2001)
HE: Inventory of Regional Economic Development Reporrs and Existing
Economic Development Poli.cies
This interim memorandum report presents an inventory and synopses af
econamic development reports for the San Diegorrijuana region that we have collected to
date, and a discussion of Chula Vista's policies and their internal consistency' \\ith
regional initiatives.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REPORTS
As shown in the attachment, we have collected 80 reports regarding economic
development in the San Diegorrijuana region and Chula Vista in particular. This
invemory will continue to grow as we proceed with the Economic Development Strategy
pracess and receive input ftom others. In particular, we intend to add warkfarce reparts
after we have interviewed waMorce-training providers. We have organized the reports
we have reviewed to date into the following categories:
. Regional Economic Development Policies & Strategies
. Regional Ecanomic Development Studies
. Chula Vista Econamic Develapment
. Mexican Connections
96. S:n Avenue Su", ,1. San O;ego, C<!, 92101
6;9.'...;402 FAX ."'.4.140. NwWeoC.,e',om """"""'.o~""O,,.""on..
lo, >-0.'" 5,. "'n""o 5,. Oi.oo chi<aoo 0., ".. W..h'.O'on Oc N Ow V"', london
,
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The appendix presents summaries of reports that fall into each category. This
interim memorandum report discusses the implications these reports" finàings and
recommendations, taken as a whole for each category, may have on Chula Vis-.a.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES & STRATEGIES
The overarching regional economic development strategy is to facilitate the
growth of certain targeted "cluster" industries, or groupings of interdependeDt, export-
oriented industries. The industry clusters vary somewhat bet...ieen the San Diego
Association of Governments' (SANDAG) list and the City of San Diego and San Diego
Economic Development Corporation (SDE~"C) lists, which are more targeted.
SANDAG's list of targeted cluster industries include the following:
. Biomedical Products
. Biotech & Phannaceuticals
. Business Services
. Communications
. Computer & Electronics Manufacturing
. Defense & Transportation Manufacturing
. Unifonned Military
. Visitor Industry Services
. Financial Services
. Fruits & Vegetables
. Horticulture
. Medical Services
. Recreational Goods Manufacturing
. Entertainment & Amusement
. Environmental Technology
. Software
The City of San Diego's and SDEDC's strategy focuses on the following
industry clusters:
2
. T elecammunications
. Biotechnology
. Electronics manufacturing
. Defense manufacmring
. Software
. Financial and business services
The industry clusters are primarily industry groupings that have been identified
as growth industries today and in the future, pay relatively higher wages, require fewer
workers per $1 million of autput, have. wong expart potential, and have already
demonstrated presence in the San Diegorrijuana region.
The emphasis on higher wages and fewer workers per $1 million of output are
important characteristics for the region's growth management strategy, which has a goal
of increasing prosperity without inducing grov.1h. The mast important measure for this
strategy is growth in real income per capita in the region.
This goal will be difficult ta achieve, based on the experience of other regio!!5
that have seen increases in prosperity, such as the San Frnncisco Bay Area. A5real
¡ncomes rise, demand for services also rises, which attracts labor migration.
Consequently, increases in prosperity may lead to grow1h in aggregate final demand and
population growth, albeit at higher real average incomes.
The regional strntegies for supporting these industry clusters is to assist "ith
business retentian, expansion, and attraction, promote international oppartunities,
facilitate access to capital and technology transfers, train local residents to meet these
industries walker requirements, maintain competitive costs af daing business, and ensure
adequate infrastructure and land.
There has been some limited criticism that the regional economic development
strategies facus too much on the cluster industries at the expense of more traditional
industries that employ a majority of the workers, and preponderance of whom live in
central San Diega, East County, and South County.
Currently, most of the cluster industries tend to locate near UCSD and the
Somnto Mesa & Valley areas, the I~15 corridar, Keamy Mesa, and, with financial
3
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services, UTC, Mission Valley and Downtown San Diego. Land prices and rents in these
areas are rising as the available land supply diminishes. SANDAG and the SDEDC have
identified an serious shortage of industrial land in the region to satisfy projected near and
mid-tenn demand, particularly north of 1-8, and particularly for larger parcels. By the
end of the year 2000, SANDAG identified only 19 parcels that are aver 10 acres,
including only 7 over 20 acres out of a total of 467 available industrial parcels.
Suburban locations, such as Carlsbad and Poway, have emerged as alternative
locations during the last decade. As land is absorbed in these locations, new locations in
the region, such as East County and South County, will become alternative locations.
Since population and workforce ~o.wth in the future is expected to shift ITom
North County to South County, there is growing policy interest to steer a greater share of
future grO\\th in these industry clusters to South County. There is a shortage of industrial
land in the north, particularly large parcels, and a surplus of industrial land in the south,
primarily in Otay Mesa. To date, however, the cluster industries have not expressed a
strong desire to move future growth to South County. Plans for a "Technology Park" are
an attempt, in part, to provide incentives and to facilitate expansion to South County,
Another important aspect of the regional strategy is to strengthen ties with
Mexico and foster stronger linkages on this side of the border "ith the maquiladora
activity occurring south of the border, and NAFT A in general. Tijuana is a center for
electronics and other assembly operations. The South County historically has had
stronger economic ties with Mexico, particularly in the retail, industrial, and trade
sectors.
The "fiscalization" of land use, which provides incentives for cities ta develop
retail over industrial or residential uses is a statewide issue that SANDAG has targeted.
Finally, from an urban planning perspective, the availability of affordable
housing within shorter commuting distances to jobs is a growing concern.
Implications for Chula Vista
The regional econamic development strategies focus on the needs of the targeted
cluster industries, rather than the needs of the industries in place. To the extent that
Chula Vista does house firms within these clusters, the city may benefit. However, the
regional strategies do not address the needs of traditional indus'tries, many of which are
4
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located in South Coullty. South County, and Chula Vista, ",ill have to consider how to
allocate its economic development priorities in the future - \"ith the cluster industries
that currently do not have a major presence in South County, traditional industries
historically located in South County, and industries tied to Mexico,
Regional efforts to steer more economic activity ta Otay Mesa due to the land
availability there, and proximity ta more affardable housing, ""ill also affect Chula
Vista's economy.
Chula Vista \"ill also need to monitor and contnòute to 'the Fiscal Reform
discussion, given Chula Vista's central retail role in South County.
CHULA VISTA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES
Chula Vista has severn! economic development inÏriatives, such as the City's
redevelopment actions, its business retention efforts, the enterprise zone formation with
San Diego, periodic recruitment effortS, positioning for a ne'" university, formation af an
energy strategy, and planning for new employment cente:o in Otay Ranch and Olay
Valley.
The City's Genern! Plan has adopted policies related to ecanomic development
that are lacated in vmous elements, nOne of which are economic development elements.
Economic goals and objectives are sta!ed primarily in t4e Growth Management Element
(Healthy Ecanomy policies), and Land Use Element The Housing Element addresses the
econamy primarily ITom the perspective of providing adequate and affordable hausing to
serve the employment base, The General Plan also refers to more precise area plans,
such as Central Chula VISta, Bayfraut, Mantgomery, Sweetwater, and Eastern Territories.
These plans provide specific economic policies for these are:IS. The City ilia has adopted
redevelopment plans and specific plans for focused areas and subdivisions.
Instead of an Economic Development element in the Genern! Plan, Chula Vista
has an adapted Econamic Development Strategy and various City Council resalutions
that articulate mare specific econamic development gaals, objectives, and actions.
Chula Vista's economic development policies are primarily expressed in these
documents. These policies were designed to revÏtalize under-peIforming commercial
areas, improve the City's image and "quality-of-life,"enhance fiscal resources, mitigate
5
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the impacts associated with econamic development, and diversify the City's economic
base without targeting industries to diversify into.
In tenDS of official policies, as compared to resolutions and action plans, more
emphasis is placed on mitigating for the impacts of economic growth, and commercial
revitalization, than providing direction for Chula Vista's economic future.
While none of Chula Vista's adopted policies are inconsistent with regional
economic prosperity polices and strategies, only a few are directly related. This is
because Chula Vista's General Plan and redevelopment plans were written before most of'
the current regional economic prasperity policies and strategies were developed.
Also, while Chula Vista has long ,recognized i1s ties to Mexico, particularly
regarding retail trade, current policies are relatively silent regarding linkages to Tijuana
and the border region.
Finally, the policies expressed in the General Plan, including the Mea Plans, are
for the most part internally consistent, although some coordination is required., such as
coordinating the multiple social and recreation goals with the economic goals for the
Bayfront, linking the Bayfront with Downtown, and maintaining Central Chula Vista's
role as the City's center given goals for the Eastern Urban Center.
If there are deficiencies, its that some of policies are based on outdated profiles
of the economy, there are few links to the region's economic development strategy or ties
"ith Mexico, it presumes a continuance of growth in low-wage sectors (retail and
services) without an explicit goal to diversify into higher-paying sectors.
The following are excerpts ITom the General Plan that are related to economic
health and development:
General Plan Policies
A review of Chula Vista's General Plan reveals the following policies related to
economic development:
The Vision
. "With an emphasis on public recreation activities, tourism and conservation, it (the
Bayfront) will emerge as the premier waterfront experience in South Bay."
6
0 'The Urban Care will contain the greatest diversity of public, commercial, civic,
financial, cultural, and residential uses emphasizing its role as the hub of the city.
0 'í11is (the Eastern Urban Center) will ser..e as a regional retail and business center
for the eastern area of the city. It will aL<o be a major center along State Route 125
that will... .. connect Chula Vista with Otay Mesa and second border crossing"
Land Use Element- Goals and Objedives-Economic Base of the City
0 "Chula Vista's economy and employment have traditionally been heavily influenced
by the presence of Rohr Industries. In k~ing \vith economic changes that are under
way in the county as a whole, it is the goai of the city ta have a large and diversified
-.
economic base, while maintaining ar in=ing the existing sources af employment.
Objective 1. Identify potential areas far location of new light manufacturing and
high technology business and facilitate their development.
Objective 2. Where land is currently occupied by marginal industrial uses,
encourage replacement by higher value-added uses.
Objective 3. Where land in the urban core and bayftont is occupied by marginal
industrial uses, encounlge their selecrive redevelopment for residential, office,
commercial, and recreatianal uses.
Objective 4. Continue the orderly industrial redevelopment of the Otay Valley Road
area.
Objective 5. Provide employment oppommities in large scale planned communities
such as Eastlake, Rancho del Rey, Sunbow, and Otay Ranch.
Objective 6. Canduct and periodically update a fiscal impact analysis of anticipated
future develapment in the general plan area."
Land Use Element - Goals and Objec:tives - Retail Commercial
Development
0 "Currently, retail establishments in ChuJa Vista, which are clustered alang Third
Avenue (Town Centre I), in Chula Vista Shopping Center (Town Centre IT), and
along Broadway, capture le~s than their proportianate share of regional ar
comparisan shopping canducted by the residents af the city, the SUITaunding Sauth
7
Bay, and Tijuana, Mexico. The goal of the city is to improve and increase the retail
base of the city, making the city an attractive place ta shop for comparison and
durable goods.
Objective 7. Encourage the development of a regional retail center in Eastern
Territories, in a manner that would not negatively impact the vitality of existÎDg ships
in Town Centres I and TI.
Objeétive 8. Provide for community and neighborhood commercial 'centers in
developing areas convenient to new neighborhoads and maintain, renov;ue, and
redevelop existing centers. ;
Objective 9. Encourage the upgrading of older and/or marginal retail uses along
Broadway and Main Street including, as appropriate, the development of professional
office and multi-family residential."
Land Use Element - Goals and Objectives - Higher Education and Cultural
Activities
. "It is the goal of the city to accommodate within its borders a new faur-year
institution of higher education."
"Objective 18. Promote, through the designarion of a candidate site and dis..-u.ssions
with the State of California, the establishment of a four-year college or uniyersity in
the Eastern Territories.
Objective 19. Promote and support the Olympic Training Center, through the
designarion of an OTC and appropriate complimentary adjacent land uses on the
Land Use Diagram, and the timely development of the OTC and supplementary
uses."
Land Use Element - Goals and Objectives - Water Use and Reclamation
. "It is the goal of Chula Vista to take actians, appropriate to its population and
resources, to control the growth in demand for water and wastewater treatment."
8
,~,
Land Use Element - Goals and Objectives - Relationship to the
Su"ounding Region
. "Chula Vista is influenced in significant \'ia~. by activities which take place in the
region outside its corporate boundaries or its sphere of influence, Examples are
current programs for large-scale industrial development in Otay Mesa; projected
Increase in U,S,-Mexico border traffic and economic activities; proposed
development of the Otay Ranch; and the posS1òle siting of a regional viastewater
. treatment facility near the U,S,-Mexica border It is the goal of the city to express its
legitimate concerns and ta participate in regional decision-making regarding these
activities,
Objective 27. Take all necessary steps through the Loc:ú Agency Formation
Commission and other agencies to include the entire are covered by the general plan
. in the city's sphere of influence."
Land Use Element - Goals and Objectives - Growth Management
. "Preservation of quality of life is an impartant issue for residents of a growing city
such as Chula Vista. Quality af life is generally associated with services and
amenities available to residents and visitors, such as availability of housing, open
space and recreation, shopping oppammities- city services, and convenient and
uncangested transportation. It is the goal afthe city to monitor and direct its grO\\th
such that quality of life in the city is maintained or imp raved.
Objective 27. Establish a growth management system ta assure that private
development is coordinated with the provision of adequate public facilities and
services."
Land Use Element - Land Use Categories
. Commercial uses include retail commercial, thoraughfare commercial, visitar
commercial, professional and administrative, and resort.
. Industrial uses include research and limited industrial, and general industrial.
9
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. Mixed land use areas include areas surrounding Town Centre I; Eastern Urban Center
areas in proximity to the San Diego Trolley Station at E, H and Palomar Streets;
areas adjacent to Broadway between Flower Street and I Street; areas south of
Orange Avenue and adjacent to the OTC site; Village cores on the Otay Ranch Plan;
and a Specialty Conference Center on the Oray Ranch.
Land Use Elem£nt-Specific Plan and Zoning
. Specific pl:ms and zoning are the principal implementing mechanisms for the land
use element "The City of Chula Vista has prepared and adopted several specific
plans, including EI Rancho del Rey, Bayfront, and Montgomery Specific Plans. It
has also prepared and adopted major redevelopment plans, which are similar to
specific plans. These planning productions include Tom! Centre No. I, Town Centre
No. II, and Otay Valley Road Redevelopment Plans."
Land Use Element - Highrise Development
. "Chula Vista is a city characterized, in part, by low density and lowrise urban
development This dominant character is to be retained in new development areas
and in the redevelopment of existing areas. Mid and highrise development, if limited
in numbers and to specific areas, is not necessarily inconsistent ....ith the maintenance
of this character."
. 'Three areas of Chula Vista are designated as c::l11didate areas for a limited amount of
mid and highrise development
8 The bayfront in the area bounded by E and J Streets and Marina Parkway and 1-5.
8 The commercial office area between the E and H Street Trolley Stations and
Woodlawn and 1-5.
8 The Eastern Urban Center in Eastern Territories."
Land Use Element - Fiscal lmpa£t Analysis
. "The analysis indicated that the overall impact would be positive, subject to a number
of assumptions about the continuity of the general plan and regional and local
economic conditions."
10
.",
!
. "fiscal impact analysis be updated whenever significant changes in assumptions are
made in the follo""ing areas:
. Future distribution ofland use or the rate of development.
. Unit costs of public services.
. Revenue sources.
Land Use Element - Urban Core, Eastern Urban Center and Community
Activity. Centers
. "In the future this area (the Urban Core) ""ill expand both the concentration and
diversity of facilities continuing ta reinfarce its role as the urban core of the city. A
key element of the general plan de5.nifion of the wban core is that it extends east-
west from Third Avenue ta Marina Parkway."
. 'The urban center (Eastern Urban Center) is expected to be developed at a time
considerably in the future. Development will respond to public facility availability
and area need. The City of Chula Vista expects and supparts the development of the
Eastern Urban Center as serving the Eastern Territories and the regional corridor
along Route 125. It shauld be planned to be complementary to, rather than
campeting with the Urban Core."
. "Conununity Activity Centers are subcenters of the general plan are that provide a
variety of conununity support facilities and senices. They are not exclusively
community retail center and may include higher density residential, employment,
education, health care, recreation and other public and private services. The seven
Conununity Activity Centers in the Chula Vista General Plan Area are as follows:
. Montgomery.
. Bonita.
. Terra Nava.
. Community Hospital.
. Southwestern College.
. Eastlake.
. Olympic Training Center."
II
Circulation Element - Purpose
. '"The circulation element reflects the transportation needs for employment, education,
social, recreation and residential trips ..--..The circulatian element can influence the
nature and extent, as well as the pace of urban development during periods of
economic growth.....The circulation system can fulfill economic, environmental,
social and urban design objectives."
Circulation Element - Freeways
. "freeways serve as the primary corridors between communÏties and other major
traffic generators, such as large commercial, industrial, recreational, and residential
centers." "
. "Interstate 5 ... will continue ta link Chula Vista and its industrial belt with central
San Diego to the north and Tijuana, Mexico to the south."
. "Interstate 805 provides a bypass of the coastal industrial belt. Also, access to the
center of the Chula Vista residential and commercial areas is provided."
. '"The South Bay Freeway (Route 54) also serves as the most efficient route between
the coastal industrial belt, and areas to the east and northeast."
. "The proposed SR-125 Freeway ....ill provide access from Eastern Territories north to
San Diego, south to Otay Mesa and Mexico."
Public Facilities Element - Goals and Objectives - Water Facility Planning
. "It is the goal of Chula Vista to take actions, appropriate to its population and
resources, to control the gro....1h in demand for water and promote water
conservation."
Circulation Element-Hazardous Waste Management Planning
. "Coupled with population growth in San Diego County is a growth in the need for
consumer goods and services, and the industries that produce them, in order to
maintain economic sustainability. However, many of those goods and services
contain chemicals or use chemicals in their manufacture and/or packaging. While
our quality-of-life and economic stability may be largely dependent upon these
12
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products and services, we are also threatened by the IIllsmanagement of their
chemical remains or the hazardous waste generated."
. "Encourage and support hazardous v;a..<te reduction and minimization at its source
through methods such as alteratian or manufacturing processes and/or material
substitutions."
. "Objective 17: Develop effective screening processes for new and existing local
businesses using hazardous materials and generating hazardaus waste to encourage
waste minimization.
. Objective 18: Promate recycling and alternative technologies for industrial, smaIl
business, and household hazardous \\=~ in cooperation \\ith the County and other
agencies."
Housing Element-Needs, Resources and Constrain1s
. "Related to both population and housing growth is the expected grO\\1h in
emplayment within the region. In order that adequate housing be provided, the issue
of jobslhousing balance needs ta be addressed. and an understanding of household
economics as it ultimately relates to afforciability ta be gained, projections of
employment become important"
. "loc:ú planning are emplayment is projected to inc.re:1Se by 21,181 jobs or 53.8% by
2010 (compared on 1986), \\ith the gre:uest numeric increases occurring in the retail
trade and service sectars ...... Given that retail trade and service jobs are traditionally
lower paying, the impact of affordability in the local housing market may be
magnified, assuming that those retail trade and service emplayees also reside within
the cammunity."
. 'The revised General Plan provides guidance for the City's develapment through the
year 2010, and for the first time designates urbanizing land use patterns for buildout
of the entire Planning Area. It represents the patential fur significant growth, and is
based on a 'balanced community' concept providing for development af a variety of
residential densities in conjunction with commercial, industrial, and recreational
development"
. '"fo date, compliance with growth management measures has not created a barrier ta
residential development."
13
,--,
. "While commercial and industrial developments are subject to compliance with
applicable Threshold Standards, the City's growth meåsures do not place specific
controls on the amount or rate of that development. With respect to concepts of
'jobsihousing balance", the City possesses a substantial residential base ITom which
housing needs created by commercial and industrial development can be met."
. "the future econonúc vitality of the City may depend on its providing affordable
housing for all segments afthe population, especially 'the working poor.' Ta define
what public purpose Will be served by providing affordable housing, three questions
must be addressed: a. Will the City lose jobs? Will the City lose workers? Will the
City lose economic opportunities? Tb,~probable answer in all three cases is yes.
Thus, in an effort to preserve as many of the nearly 36,000 employment opportUnities
in Chula Vista, the City should ccntinue to provide as many affordable housing
opportunities as possible during the next planning period."
. "within the City limits nearly 70% of all existing employment opportuniries are
offered by traditionally low paying service and retail industries. Most of these £inns
are very small with 1-5 employees. Manufacturing !àcilities, with the exception of
Rohr Industries, employ under 200 employees....20-50% of the population in 14 of
the City's census tracts left those tracts to work elsewhere in the City, or out of the
City altogether. Considering the concentration of high-income households in the
eastern territories, the overall cost of housing in the City, and the number of highly
skilled job opportunities Chula Vista, we can asswne many residents commute to
highly-skilled and high paying jobs elsewhere."
. "The regional business climate is continually improving, affarding industry new
opportUnities both within the City and in nearby Tijuana, due in part to the proximity
of the international border only seven núles away. A growing number of American
companies are capitalizing on the twin-plant or 'maquiladora' ccncept which links
labor-intensive American industries with Mexican labor pools for assembly
operations. Many of these American companies rent warehouse/distribution space
with the City's light industrial business parks located along the southern edge of the
City limits."
14
. "Much of the City's newly developing eastern territaries are considering
warehousing and mini-distnòution operations \Vithin the new commercialrrndustrial
centers. Many of these centers will provide new jobs for the area. Most of these
jabs, however, are neither highly skilled nor well paid which would create an
additional demand for more affordable housing units if these workers chose to live in
Chula Vista."
. "Evaluate the nexus between the growth of service and retail emplayment
opportunities and affardable housing supply. In order to attract :!Ild retain
manufacturing and service firms in Chula Vista, encourage affardable housing
production for this work force as a matter of public policy."
Housing Element - Comprehensive Housing Plan - StatemenJ of Purpose
. "The development of 'balanced communities' representing ecanomic and social
integration of neighborhoods"
Housing Element - Comprehensive Housing Plan - Implemerrting Actions
. "The City will investigate the linkage between emplo~ment generation ta the
increased demand for low-income hausing ....the most signifi= employment
opportunities forecasted to be generated \\ithin the next five y= will be in the
traditionally lawer paying service and retail sectars. In conjunction wIth this
farecast, it is proposed that the City's Economic Develapment Cammission and
Housing Advisary Cammittee initiate a study and provide direction tawards
addressment of jobs-housing balance."
. "In conjunction with the above referenced study on jabslhausing balance, the City
will also investigate the establishment of a housing linkage fee for commercial and
industrial develapment, and/or establishment of an affardable housing development
impact fee system. Should such fee program(s) be developed, a trust fimd for the
monies would be established cancurrently."
15
:
Growth Management Program -Introduction
. "Chula Vista is one of many communities that has chosen to comprehensively
manage its grawth, to accommodate varied interest in creating a balanced
community, and to better define the nature and qualities of the place it desires to
become in the future,~
Growth Manage1TU!nt Program - Growth Management Issues
. "Implicit in the concept of groy,th maD.ageinent are two complementary beliefs: I)
that rapid population growth and development have the potential to cause a variety of
problems that seriously impact the well-being of a city and its residents, and 2), that
through adoption of comprehensive goals and objectives, and coordination of
planning policies, those impact = be mitigated to an extent that balances competing
demand for grO\'ith and development., revitalization, and environmental protection,
giving the city an eD\iable quality of life."
. "He:ùthy Economy: Expanding and refining the City's economic structure so as to
provide for a healthy, regionally competitive local economy and employment base,
Development in the Eastern Territories, Bayfront and downtown revitalization all
provide Chula Vista a variety of opportunities to diversify and revitalize the city's
mix of commercial and industrial uses, supply local employment for a range of
economic groups, and improve its competitive position in the region."
. "He:ùthy Econom)': One of Chula Vista's more innovative efforts to integrate
growth management and economic vitality is use of econamics as one of the
Threshold Standards adopted in 1987, Fiscal Impact Reports and Public Facility
Financing Plans for large-scale projects are used with annual development and
economic forecast reports to evaluation economic impacts of development, The
City's General Plan includes commercial and industrial plans for several areas:
Centrnl Chula VISta (revitalization through circulation and urban design
improvements; additional residential construction to support retail commercial uses
and redevelopment projects such as the Bayfrant and Chula Vista Center), Eastern
Territories (phased development of a comprehensively-planned urban center, auto
park, and Otay Valley. Raad Redevelopment Area), Montgomery (visual
16
improvements to commerciallindustrial areas; upgrade of inftastructures; integration
oflight industrial uses)."
Growth Management Program - Goals and Objectives
. "To direct and coordinate growth and development policies in ways that not just
maintam, but consistently endeavor to imprave, the quality of life for current and
future residents ofChula Vista."
. "Healthy Economy: Encourage a healthy and sustaining economy that provides
Chula Vista. with competitive diverse employment and shopping opportunities
through:
..'
a. Conducting a periodic econamic analysis for the city as a whole.
b. Evaluating ta:'{ revenues city-I'ide to assess the City's financial ability to
provide public services.
c. Balancing new growth and revitalizatian of urban areas so as to create
equal economic opportunities and quality oflife.
d. Creating oppartunities far participation in the economy by encouraging
trnining and education for disadvantaged groups, "ith improved
locational, vehicular and housing access to employment centers"
Growth Management Program - Policies - Public Fcu:i/ities and Services
. "Require all large-scale, ar other signifi=t public ar private developments to
prepare a 'fiscal impact report' discussing a project's indi\idual and future
cumulative effects an the city's fiscal well being."
. "Establish a permanent development impact fee assessed to all private development
projects to initigate citywide develapment impacts. Monies collected shall be
e:mnarked for specific public facility and service improvements throughout the city."
. "Refine the use of develapment agreements to obtain needed public facilities and
services for development entitlements above that which wauld be required by the
Subdivision Map Act or other planning provisions."
. "Evaluate proposal ITom the SANDAG Task Force on Regional Facilities Financing
in order ta coardinate lacal development impact fees (DIF) "ith any regianal DIFs
that may be proposed and adopted."
11
í.'ò
Growth lUanage1fli!nt Program - Policies - Healthy Economy
. "Pursue re'o~taliz:uion programs in the Central Chula Vista, Montgomery, and
Bayfront PI:mning Ar= as detailed in the respective community or sp~ific plan for
each."
. "Conduct a periodic economic assessment for the city as a whole ta include:
1) Profile of economic structure as it relates ta municipal and subregional
demagrnphics and employment base;
2) Profile of surpluses and deficiencies in the local ~onomy, with
recommend.a!ions for mitigating inequities;
3) Profile of employment/unemployment by demogrnphic group and
economic s=or, with recommendations to correct imbalances;
4) Vacant land available for co mmer c iallind ustriall manufacturing
development;
5) SUIIUDaIY of the relationship between economic gains achieved through
revitalization In established planning areas, and new
commercial/industrial development in the Eastern Territories.
6) SUIIUDaIY of commerciallindustrial development costs and Chula Vista's
comparative position in the region."
Growth Management Program - Part I
. "Action Program 5.1.8: Develop residential, commercial and industrial land uses in
a manner that supparu the concept af regionally or sub-regionally balanced
cammunities in a compact urban form, and facilitates inter-jurisdictional cooperation
and efficiency in construction and use of transportation and ather infrastructure
systems."
. "City adopted a policy which created threshold standards in a Growth Management
Oversight Committee. The standards are linked to measurable criteria for 11 quality
oflife issues (including Economics)..
18
",)
Chula Vista Economic Development Plan
The City Council formed the Chula Vista Economic Development Commission
in 1990. The Cammission helped oversee the preparation of the Chula Vista Economic
Development Plan, which the City Council adopted in 1991. This plan is the last City
effort to establish a specific economic development policy. The Plan begiDs with the
following IIÙssion statement:
To enhance the quality of life in Chula Vista through the promotion of a strong
local economy offering employment and business opportunities. and a healthy.
diversified tax base vital to sllpportiiig City services.
The Plan idèntifies six goals, each "ith several specific objectives, as follows:
. Goal!: Identify the existing economic base and target new business and industry.
The objectives call for specific research efforts to conduct a citywide commercial and
industrial land inventaries and market analyses, a target industry analysis, and a labor
pool analysis.
. Goal 2: Develop land use and infrastrucrure strategies to support economic
development goals.
ObjeCtives:
I: Encourage high quality retail, restaurants, and resort developments to promote
tourism.
2: Encourage the development of tnlnSportation modes ta support commercial and
industrial development.
3: Encourage develapment of business parks and facilities.
4: Encourage master planning and proactive approaches ta ensure infrastructure for
business and industry.
5: Implement the City's redevelopment plans.
6: Promote a team approach among the Cauncil, Redevelopment Agency,
Management, Departments, and ComlIÙssians concerning general econalIÙc
development and land use goals, policies and procedures.
'-
19
7: Evaluate and pursue the preparation of a strategic plan for targeted are:lS of the
City.
8: Evaluate and pursue co=ercial and/or industrial projects ,,~thin master planned
communities.
. Goal 3: Develop a comprehensive marketing and public relations program to attract
and retain job and revenue generating business and industry, and to enhance
communication ,,~th existing business and citizens.
Objectives:
1: Create and maintain a comprehensive market database.
2: Develop and update professional ~~eting material.
3: Develop a prospect response system.
4: Develop an aggressive public relations plan.
5: Encourage joint marketing with outside groups such as real es=e brokers,
developers, utilities, and other economic development agencies.
6: Increase local and regional business and citizen awareness of economic
development goals and activities.
7: Pursue speciñc marketing programs based upon target industry analysis.
. Goal IV: Develop a proactive business assistance program to encourage business
retention, grawth, and expansion.
Objectives:
1: Enhance communication with the lacal business community.
2: Utilize redevelopment techniques.
3: Identify local employers' personnel recruitment and retention issues.
4: Provide a "clearinghouse~ far small business technical assistance.
5: Coordinate ,vith the local Certiñed Development Corparation and lenders.
6: Conduct site-specific market and feasibility studies.
7: Prepare a developers' guidebook to enhance understanding of the entitlement
process.
8: Pursue development af a Community Reinvestment Act strategy.
9: Coordinate with local employment assistance organizations and the business
community to address impacts of major employer clasingsllayaffs.
20
10: Coordinate with local and regional job training organizations to assist both
business prospects and existing employers.
11: Evaluate and pursue the development of a business deveiopment grant or loan
program.
12: Assess permit processing policies and identify streamlining recommendations to
include a defined fast tracking policy for priority economic development projects.
13: Evaluate and pursue the creation of a Business Development
Facilitator/Ombudsman.
14: Encourage the development and optimum use of job training programs.
15: Evaluate and pursue the developmep; ora business "incubator" program.
. Goal V: Promote tourism and the development of cultural, educational, and
recreational amenities.
Objectives:
1: Identify and promote Chula Vista's natural assets.
2: Promote and support yearly tourist and/or cultural event.
3: Redevelop with tourist recreational orientation.
4: Promote tourist oriented development to complement the Olympic Training
Center.
5: Pursue the attraction ora four year university.
6: Encourage development of major tourist attractions and the inclusion of tourist
oriented development within master planned areas.
7: Evaluate the feasibility of developing a multipwpose cultural center.
. Goal VI: Encourage the provision of broad ranging housing opportunities.
Objectives:
I: Pursue land use policies designed to achieve a jobslhousing balance and to meet
affordable housing goals.
2: Encourage housing opportunities for all income levels, ages, and household sizes.
3: Encourage quality, well-planned residential developments.
4: Encourage and facilitate public/private partnerships which promote affordable
housing.
21
5: Coordinate with other public and private organizations to pursue local private
lender investment in affardable housing pursuant to the Community Reinvestment
Act.
Redevelooment Plåns
The City of Chula Vista of Chula VISta also has ecanomic development policies
for specific areas within the city as adopted inthe City's Redevelopment Plans. Per
California State law, these plans must be consistent with the City's General Plan.
Bayfront Redevelopment Projed Area
The Bayfront Redevelopment Plan; :uiopted in 1974, establishes the policies fer
redeveloping Chula Vista's waterfront on San Diego Bay. The Plan's basic objectives
include the preservation of marshland, public use and enjoyment of shoreline areas, B.!ld
good pedestrian and vehicular access between the Bayfront and areas east of the freeway.
The primary uses to be considered are limited to public recreation., commercial activities
such as hotels, motels and restaurants, and campatible ,vater-related industrial activities.
Limited residential development may also be considered where allowed by State tideland
grant provisions.
The Plan states that, "Retail development which would be directly competitive
with existing or praposed sub-regional and regional shopping center facilities elsewhere
in Chula Vista should not be permÎtted \\~thin this area." Tnis adopted policy is
potentially inconsistent with some of the recent waterfront development proposals that
the City and Port District are considering.
The Plan further states that commercial-recreation shauld by the primary use.
Other uses, such as residential, office, business services and light industrial exhibÏting
office-type characteristics, are permÎtted where complementary to commercial-recrearion
uses. Water-<>riented industrial uses may be pemÜtted in the vicinity of the J Street boat
launching ramp if feasible. Small-scale, water-related industrial uses are permitted if
they cantribute to the Bayfront and da not impede development of recreation uses.
The Plan has specific site recommendations, including marinas with up ta 1,950
berths in total, a 50-acre hatellmotel camerence complex, a 30-40 acre golf caurse, 71
gross acres of commercial recreation., 54 acres of administration and business services, 21
22
;
acres of highway-related commercial, 42 acres of residential, and 153 acres of industrial
(the existing Rom facilities at the time), plus marshlands, parks, and open space.
The Plan also has specific recommendations related to circulation, form, and
appearance.
GUllpowder Point is seen as the primary area for resort hotels (up to 700-rooms) a
conference center, and ancillary commercial uses. Another 250-300 room motel, with
small shops and restaurants, is permitted in the Gateway area, with a nine-hole golf
course on the site's eastern edge.
The Bayshore Village area is proposed for residential, an "expansion reserve"
pertion, and part of the nine-hole golf cours~.
The North Marina area is proposed with a marina and related commercial and
re~reation uses, and residential uses. Office and research industrial uses are considered
appropriate alternatives to the recommended residential uses, although the Plan states that
office and research industrial uses should not be allowed until full development of the
lands designated for similar uses in Subarea E is assured. Due to Ïhe area's single
ownership, the area is also considered appropriate for a single or special purpose use if it
can be shown that inland locations are inappropriate, the use would derive benefit trom
the Bay-related site and would return benefits to the public, and that other criteria are
satisfied.
The Bay Boulevard Area's land use policy proposes to recognize and reflect
. market preferences for freeway-related commercial as long as they do not dilute the
market for uses proposed in the main motellhatel, conference complex and that high
design standards are applied. Petrnitted uses include restaurants, gas stations, motels and
other travel-related commercial uses, and offices for professional and business services.
Certain types of commercial, warehouse, and industrial uses are specifically excluded.
The Tidelands Industrial Area land use policy calls for an industrial park
development and a public park.
The Marina Green AIea is designated for a bayside park, small-boat marina, and
motel with ancillary commercial uses.
The South Marina land use palicy calls far a marina with related commercial
uses, parks, and a 17-acre zone for administrative and business service uses. An
23
alternative use identified is a major water-oriented industrial use, such as a shipbui1àing
plant.
In sumrnarion, ITom an economic development perspective, the Baysi¿e
Redevelopment Plan emphasizes the waterfront's role as a commercial-recreation zone,
with retail and office uses as secondary uses so long as they do not compete with areas in
the city that are e:lSt of the freeway. Industrial uses are allowed is specific are:l>,
especially water-oriented industries, but are nct emphasized. Overall, economic acti\;t!.
must occur within a dominant public recre:¡¡jon and open space framework. Tnese
policies are not inconsistent w;th most General Plan and regional ecanomi¿ developme:n
policies. However, the policy that discou~es commercial uses that may compete \\;th
areas east of the ITeeway may be in conflict \\;th elements of current developmeat
projects proposed for the area.
Southwest Redevelopment Project Area
The Redevelopment Plan for the Southwest Redevelopment Projeet Area, adopted in
1990, is intended to clean-up a blighted mbced-use zane. Same of the Plan's economic
goals, among other goals, include the promotion of planned light industrial developmeat
\\;thin the Main Street Corridor, encouragement of tourism-related uses such as hotels
and restaurants, enhancement and renovation of businesses, stimulation of private-s=or
investment, removal of impediments ta land assembly, better utilization of developable
land, development of safeguards against noise and pollution to enhance the
industrial/commercial community, and creation of jabs for Chula Vista residents.
The major land uses permitted include residential of all types, ge:¡e:õÙ
cammercial and cammercial recreation uses, public and quasi-public uses, vacant la!!d
and land used far agricul~ purposes and salt productian currently in place. Industrial
uses allowed include'limited light and heavy industrial uses, including manufactUring,
v.-arehousing, wholesaling, mineral extracti.on and processing. Interim non-conforming
uses, pending the ultimate development of the land in conformance with the
redevelopment plan, are allawed if they meet applicable City cades.
Draft projects include various traffic and circulation improvements, sewer and
drainage improvements, community facilities and school impravements, community
develapment programs, and low and moderate-income housing.
24
This Project Area Plan is designed to give the Agency powers to remove and
rectify blight, and finance needed public improvements. None of its policies are
inconsistent with other City economic development policies.
Dtay Valley Road Project Area
This plan, adopted in 1983, provides the Redevelopment Agency with the powers
to implement redevelopment in the project area. The Plan specifically states that "this
plan does not present a specific plan or establish specific projects for the redevelopment,
rehabilitation, and revitalization of any area \\ithin the Project Area, nor does this Plan
present specific proposals in an attempt to solve or alleviate the concerns and problems of
the community relating to the Project Area."
The Project Area is intended to develop in accordance \\ith the general plans of
the City of Chula Vista (Parcel I) and the County of San Diego (Parcel 2). These land
use designations include parks and public open space, agriculture, general industrial and
research and limited industrial \\ithin the City of Chula Vista; and impact densitive-parks
and open space, intensive agriculture, and service commercial in the County of San
Diego.
The Plan intends to alleviate blight, pro,ide improved public infrastructure, and
cæate more marketable parcels. The Plan specifically cites the existence of a land fill
and several auto recycling yards as disincentives for new development.
The Plan's stated abjectives is, "the encouragement, promotion, and assistance in
the development and expansion oflocal commerce and needed commercial and industrial
facilities, increasing lacal employment prosperity, and improving the economic climate
\\ithin the Project Area." The development of well-planned and quality designed
industrial and commercial developments is a related land use objective.
Industrial uses include industrial and industrial park development that contain
manufacturing, fabrication, production and assembly, wholesale and resale distribution
uses, technical services and businesses, research and development, warehousing and
processing, and other related compatible uses. Cammercial uses include business offices,
professional offices, retail stores and shops, and other office functions. These land uses
are intended to serve regional markets, the entire city, and surrounding communities.
They are meant to provide; for the manufucturing. warehausing and distribution af gaads,
25
1
materials, and services far local and regional commerce and industry, and to provide for
businesses, in certain locations, that combine retail sales within their manufacturing,
warehousing or industrial operations. The Project Area also includes areas designated for
agricultural uses.
The Plan is consistent with the City"s other economic development policies since
it simply enables the Redevelopment Agency to use redevelapment tools to remove blight
and provide infrastructure that will encoaurage the development of uses that are called
for in the General Plan. This Project Area is one afthe City's main areas designated for
general industrial use.
""
Town Centre Retkvelopment Plan
The Town Centre Plan, adopted in 1976, is the redevelopment plan for the City's
Central Business District. As the Plan states, 'The goal of this redevelopment project is
to revitalize the Town Centre area as the commercial-civic focus of the City." The Plan's
objectives include the eIiminatian of blight and environmental deficiencies, the
strengthening of the mercantile posture ofTov..n Centre and its retail trade, the renewal of
the To\Yll Centre's physical plant and land use patterns, restaration of viable land uses
and commercial enterprises, attractian of capital and new business enterprises,
beautification, encouragement of middle-income multi-family hausing, pravision of
transit, and design standards. The Plan alsa has the objective of establishing the Town
Centre as, '"the South Bay's principal center for specialty goods and services."
Finally, the Plan's last stated goals is "the reorientatian af the people of Chula
Vista to their core area, and the resultant promotion of a sense af'ta\Ylless' (towness is a
unique feeling spawned by an ematianal relationship between people and their city. This
feeling is founded upon a sense of belonging. When the people feel that they belong to
their city and that their city belongs to th~ a state aftowness exists)."
The Plan, which confanns to the City of Chula Vista's General Plan, calls for a
mixture of commercial uses, including, but not limÏted to retail, affice, hotel, service,
entertainment, educational, and auxiliary uses in the "central commercial" area. The
Agency may allaw residential uses in the central commercial area if certain conditions
are met.
26
The Plan also has designated residential areas that allow residential., professional,
and administrative offices. Housing diversity is encouraged ta accommodate all
economic segments.
Public and quasi-public facilities are pennitted to expand, and the Agency may
authorize the private use of air rights over public rights-of-way.
While the Plan does not detail projects or plans within the Project Area, it is one
of the more specific redevelopment plans regarding its vision for the Project Area - to re-
establish the Town Center as Chula Vista's civic and commercial ce=. While this
policy is ccnsistent with the City's other policies, it must be re-affirmed given the
emergence of Otay Ranch and its Eastern. .urban Center, and the proposed waternont
developments in Chula Vista' Bayfront.
Town Centre No.2 Project Area
This redevelopment plan was first adopted in 1978, and amended in 1987, 1988, and
1994. It was established originally to assist ",ith the renovation af Chula Vista Center.
It's stated goal is to "revitalize the Town Centre No. II Project Are:a as the principal
regional shopping center of the South Bay." It bas since been expanded to assist the new
Walrnart Center, the City's existing Corporate Yard, and institutional land uses.
In addition to the objectives of eliminating blight and attrac:ing investment that
are stated in the Town Centre Redevelopment Project Area, the Town Centre II Plan has
the added objectives of "the fostering of ccoperation between the Town Centre No. II
Project Area and the Chula Vista Town Centre Project Area (No. 1), and the protection of
the goals, objectives, and economic resurgence of the latter;" and, '"'the continuing
promotion of Subarea I of the Chula Vista Town Center (No. 1) Project Area, as the
principal center of specialty-goods purveyance in the South Bay Subregion.
While the Plan is ccnsistent with other City economic policies, its fundamental
objective to become tþ.e principal regional shopping center of the Sooth Bay needs to be
I
revisited given long-tenn plans for Otay Ranch's Eastern Urban Center, the proposed
waternont developments, and emerging regional competition.
27
r~
Redevelopment Agency Project Area Implementation Plans 2000-20Q4
In 1999, the City of Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency adopted a five-year
implementation plan to meet the requirements of Section 33490 of the State of California
Health and Safety Code. The purpose of the implementation plan is to guide the
Agency's activities of the next five years, as follows:
Town Centre I:
. H Street!Third Avenue consolidation of small parcels and caordinatian of the
redevelopment of under-utilized properties near South Bay Regional Center.
. leader Building Site redevelopment
'.
. Business recruitment and marketing
. Update exteriar design guidelines and establish a faicade improvement program
. Commercial rehabilitation loan program
. E Street entryway
. Downtawn Business Associatian promotions
. Joint publidprivate programs
. Public parking facilities
. Capital improvements
. South Bay Regional Center
. Redevelopment of"ThirdlAlvarado site
Town Centre II:
. Relocation of City public works yard site
. Wark with school districts to facilitate expansion and reloc:1Iion needs
. Redevelopment of commercial sites
. Civic center master plan
Bayfront:
. Develap the Mid-Bayfront
. Clean up contaminated properties
. Facilitate the redevelopment of Port owned properties
28
î
. Complete the extension ofH Street and the Realignment of Marina Pari.way
. Abandonment of the Coronado branch rail
Southwest:
. Implement select recommendations of the Southwest Study
. Encourage redevelopment of the Nelson/Sloan and Fenton properties
. Establish a business retention/relocation program
. Establish an industrial/Commercial property rehabilitation loan or gran! program
. Plan and implement the installation of two monument signs
. Initiate and complete the final plancing desigilations for the We$. Fairfield and
Faivre Street study areas
. Complete the implementation of the Main Street Pavement Rehabiliwion project
. Participate in the planning of the Otay Valley Regional Park.
Otay Valley Road:
. Resolve soil/water contamination issues
. Expand auto park
. Resolve site specific trnffic circulation issues impending developme:l:
. Provide support for the Otay Regional Park
. Provide support for the establishment of the City of Chula Vista's new corporation
facility
. Facilitate the redevelopment of the Darling Delaware Property
. Review the continued operation of auto recyclers located on Energy Way.
Other Citv Economic Development Policies
Industrial Land Supply Resolution
In 1996, the Economic Development Commission raised concerns about the
limited supply of industrial land in Chula Vista. An Industrial Land Task Force was
formed that recommended actions to City Council to address the issue. The City Council
adopted the following Task Force recommendations by resolution (Resolution No.
19018) in 1997:
29
. Mission Statement
. To identify economic development activities as a priority fur the City, including
the recruitment of targeted, high technology, high paying and environmentally-
friendly industries, and to ensure that the City has adeq=e resources to achieve
targeted industry goals, including short and lang term äe:iverable land supply,
adequate marketing tools, competitive business incentives, requisite
infrastructure, and a business friendly development review permitting process.
. Targeted Industrial Marketing Effarts
. Reaffinn existing business attracti?n, retention, and exp=ian strategies which
cUITently target biotechnalogy manufucturers, def=5e1aerospace firms ,
import/expart finns, and other high grawth, high tž-=hnology companies
employing highly paid workers.
. Reaffim ongoing economic development marketing efforts to attract
industrial/R&D developers and users to the follawing = cUITently zoned for
industrial:
. High techlBiotech zone at the EastLake Business Center, Pbase I and II;
. Otay Valley Road; and
. Otay Ranch, Village 3 & 18B
. Industrial Land Supply
. Adopt a policy of discouraging the use of industrially zoned land for non-
industrial uses and requiring individual applications to convert industrial land,
such as General Plan amendments, rezones, or CUP's, ta include:
~ An industrial development impact statement; and
~ EDC review prior ta Planning Commission cansidef2IÎon, as applicable.
. Reaffinn the City's intent to preserve the High TechlBiote--..h Zone by maintaining
the existing industrial land use designation in the EastLake Business Center Phases 1
and 2.
. Direct staff to evaluate the existing IR (industrial res=h) zone to ensure the
flexibility needed to accommodate new, technalogy- and iníarmatian-based
industries and to recommend amendments to Council as appropriate.
30
-'",
. Evaluate the feasibility of applying the IR zone (as amended) as an overlay zone to
allow for limited R&Dllight industrial uses within certain commercial areas within
the City including, but not limited to:
. EastLake Village Center (including the Kaiser site);
. Otay Ranch Eastern Urban Center and Villages 9 and 10 (University site);
. Bayfront (Midbayfront, Port and B.F. Goodrich sites);
. Broadway;
. To'\"Il Centre I Project Area (3" Avenue);
. Southwest Project Area (Main Street);
And return to Council with specific ~ecommendations regarding the use of such
overlay zones.
. Direct staff to evaluate land uses city\\ide to identify potential areas for rezoning to
industrial including, but not limited to:
. Otay Ranch Village 2 (only that portion within the 1,000 ft. landfill buffer) and
Village 2 West and repart recommendations to Council.
. Direct staff to evaluate the potential for annexing land to ilie south or east to
provide for additional industrial land inventory and repart recommendations to
Council.
. Direct staff to work proactively with develapers when negotiating or
renegotiating public facility financing plans, and related phasing requirements at
the SPA level, to ensure that improvements serving industriallR&D areas,
including but not limited ta transportation-related infrastructure, are provide~ in
the mast timely fashion feasible.
. Direct the Economic Development ColI1Inissian to consider approaches the City
may wish to take ta address fees and customer service and report
recammendations to Council.
City Council Workshops
The Chula Vista City Council periodically holds warkshops to discuss ecanamic
development priorities. The priorities they identify at these workshops are not adopted
policy, but provide direction to staff and influence the formation of future policy. The
- - - -
City Council identified the following top seven proposed priorities at a recent workshop:
31
'--
. Bayfront development
. Continue the redevelopment and re-planning of the Bayfront Project Area to
encourage and facilitate quality visitor-serving commercial, recreational and
residential development.
. Further the jaint planning process with the San Diego Port Commission toward
the collective goal of expanding the Bayfront Project Area boundaries to include
the Port District properties adjacent to the Chula Vista Yacht Harbor.
. Extent "H" Street westerly to Marina Parkway.
. Establish the Chula Vista Bayfront ~'a resort destination.
. Third Avenue - DowntO\\11 revitalization
. Continue the revitalization of the Town Centre I DowntO\\11 District by
encouraging and facilitating quality ¡nfiIl commercial and office development
and attracting quality cammercial tenants.
. Continue marketing, leasing, and image enhancement programs with the
Downtown Business Association taward the goal of re-establishing the
Downtown as the commercial-civic focus afthe City.
. Broadway revitalization
. Implement a focused and phased' revitalization effort along segments of the
Broadway commercial corridor to impede the proliferation of blighting
influences and encourage quality commercial/retail develapment.
. The revitalization effort should include coordination mth the Broad....-ay Business
Association and further the progress made \\ith the Palomar Trolley Center, the
auto dealership relocations, and the campleted Broadway S=t improvements.
. Otay Valley planning and development
. Encourage and facilitate quality commercial, entenainment, recreation ánd
industrial development.
. Capitalize and expand on the opportunities created by the Auto Park, Universal
Amphitheater and White Water Canyon projects toward the goal of improving
the image and character of the area.
. Higher education center/environmental séiences institute development
32
~
. Continue to advance the planning for a "Higher Education Center and
Environmental Sciences Institute" concept to involve the establishment of a
single campus which would house academic programs fram San Diega State
University, University of California at San Diego, and Southwestern College
v;ith emphasis in the areas of high-technology and biotechnoloy, as well as
environmental research and commerce.
. The planning efforts should include further definition of organizational structure,
acadeIIÍic and research focus, as well as siting and financial issues.
. SR-125 completion
. Continue to support the constrUcti?~ .of a highway to serve the eastern area
north/south traffic movement.
. The facility "ill be a 6-10 lane divided and controlled access highway built to
freeway standards.
. The project has regional funding in the amount of $70 million (approximately) to
pay for the San Miguel Connector (between SR-54 and San Miguel Road).
. It is important to keep political interest and support for the funding with State,
Federal, and local elected officials.
. City revenue base enhancement
. Continue to focus on increasing the revenue base for basic City services.
. Actively participate in lobbying efforts to "rerum" funds taken by the State.
. Actively participate in lobbying efforts to increase the sales tax return to local
governments by an additional 1 %.
. Limit the use of one-time revenue sources.
. Make progress toward the Council goal of an 8% reserve.
. Generally ensure an improvement in the City's long tenn financial stability.
The Council also identified additional proposed priorities:
. Insure long-tenn financial stability
. Promote economic development
. Promote quality onife indicatars
33
:'¡
. Evaluate and assess land use and planning
. Update administrative policies and procedures
. Promote and influence regional issues
34
_OJ
APP.ENDIX
TABLE OF CONTEì'lìS
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES & STRATEGIES...................................... 1
1. CHARTING THE COURSE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY............................................................................ 1
2. COUNT( OF SAN DIEGO 1999 - 2000 & 2000 - 2001 OPERATIONAL PLAN HlGHUGIITS ................. 3
3. LIVING IN A SUSTAINABLE. PROSPEROUS REGION ..........................................................,............... 3
4. &'1 ECONOMIC DEYELOP~IENT STRATEGY FOR THE SA." DIEGO REGION ......................................... 4
5. P.~TNERSHIP FOR THE NEW ECONOMY .........................................................................................5
6. TECIINOLOGY'S PERFECTCUMATE- FINDING A FOC¡;S ................................................................ 5
7. CREATING PROSPERITY FOR THE SA,'DIEGO REGION..................................................................... 6
8. AcHIEVING FISCAL REFOR.\! IN CALIFOR.'I!A.................................................................................. 7
9. CALIFOR..'I!A'S ELECTRICITY OPTIONS A."ID CHALlE'GEs........:...................................................... 7
10. S....' DIEGO REGIONALE"'ERGY Pu..'........................................................................................... 8
11. 2020 Crms/Cou'?ooTI FORECAST: LA-'ID USE ALTER."ATIv'EL...................................................... 8
12. GROWING S....' DIEGO's WORKFORCE - ECONOMIC ROL"NDT..\BLE ................................................. 9
REGIONAL ECONOl\ßC DEVELOPMENT STUDIES -............................................................ 10
13. EMPLOnIENT FORECAS!' FOR 2000 - S....' DIEGO ROL").1)TABLE.................................................. 10
14. SA-' DIEGO ECONOMIC ROUNDTABLE ......................................................................................... 10
15. 2000 E~IPLOYMDï LA."DS L'IVE!-oïORY A.'ID MARKET ."",'AI. YSIS ................................................ 10
16. SAi'IDAG INFO: A Mn.uON MORE PEOPLE IN THE REGlo:-; BY 2010 .......................................... 11
17. SAi'IDAG INFO: SA." DIEGO REGION PUBUC OP!:'o10N SURVEY................................................. 12
18. CO:-.-n:-.1.;ING A."AI.YSIS OF SHOPP[!(G R-\BlTS IN S.~" DIEGO (CASH).......................................... 13
19. SOLì1! COUNTY EDC's ECONOMIC SUMMIT & UREA-" LA.'ID 1NSTI11.TIE'S 2000 E¿ONO~UC
FORECAST ..............................................................................................................."..............'" 13
20. Ev AI.UAT1NG ECONO~nC PROSPERITY IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION................................................ 14
21. IDENTIFYING REGIONAL INDuSTRIAL CLUSTERS IN CALlFORNIA (VOLUME I) ............................... 15
22. PLA.'NING FOR SHARED PROSPERITY OR GROWING b'EQUALlTY'? ..........................................""" 15
23. DRAFf REGIONAL HO¡;SING NEEDS STATEMENT, S~-"DIEGO REGION.......................................... 15
24. SANDAG INFO: REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTERS ........................................................................ 15
25. SA." DIEGO REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT CLUSTERS (SA..";TIAG) ................................................""" 16
26. TECIINOLOGY PARK FEASIBILlTY S11IDY..................................................................................... 17
27. SAN DIEGO COUNT( CRÈDlTNEEDS S11IDY ................................................................................ 17
28. ECONOMIC IMP ACT OF THE PORT OF SAN DIEGO ECONOMY ..............................................""""'" 18
29. SANDAG INFo: TRAmC BY THE NUMBERS IN THE SA.' DIEGO REGION ...................................... 18
30. AiRPoRT ECONOMIC A.'AL ..YSIS................................................................................................. 19
31. SA." DIEGO AIR COIoßIERCE CENTER: ECONOMIC A.'ID FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS ............".......... 19
i
32. ClTf COMMENTS ON THE DRAFr ElRÆA AND MAsTIR PLAN FOR THE PROPOSED 5.""1 DIEGO AIR
COMMERCE AT BROWN FIELD ............................................................................................................. 20
33. DEVELOPING HIGH-TECHNOLOGY COMMUNITIES ........................................................................21
CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT............................_...........................................22
34. CffilLA VISTA GENERAL PLAN ....................................................................................................22
35. C1ru1.A VISTAEcONOM1CDEVELOP~IENTPLAN .......................................................................... 22
36. REDEVELOPMENT AGENCY PROJECT AREA: L\fPLEMENT ATION PL.-\.'(s (2000 - 2004) ................... 23
37. 1999 A'INUAL REpORT ............................................................................................................... 24
38. OTAY Ro.NCH: GENERALDEVELOP~IENTPLAN/ OrAY SUBREGIO1\AL PLAN ................................. 24
39. CffilLA VISTA REDEVELOPMENT PLANS ...................................................................................... 25
. 40. EASTERN URBAN CENTER COM~IERCIAL MARKET A'IALYSIS FOR THE MCMlLLh'l COMPANIES ... 25
41. PRoPOSED CAPITAL IMPROVEME-oTI PROGRAM (FY 2000 - 01) ..-............................................... 26
42. CHlJLA VISTA 2000 .................................................................................................................... 27
..
43. MEMO: REEVALUATION OF ToW); CD'TIU: I REDEVELOP~IENT PROJECT AREA............................ 27
44. THIRD AVENUE DISTIUCT MARKET OPPORTUNITY SnJDY AND RECRUITMENT STRATEGY............ 29
45. Cm' OF CHULA VISTA: BUSINESS TARGETING "-"ID DEVELOP~IEXT STRATEGIES .......................... 29
46. ClTf OF CHULA VISTA RETAIL L-\.'TI USE ANALYSIS................................................................... 30
47. CHULA VISTA REDEVELOPMENT AGE'lCY'S OFFICIAL STATE.'AEXr FOR 2000 T A."'( ALLocATION
Bol<TIS ....................................................................................................................................... 31
48. EcoNo~nc L"-"ID USE AND ZOI-oT\G STUDY FOR THE SOUTHWEST REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT ....... 31
49. "COMMUNlTYTuNE" ROUNDTABLE: DOWNTOWN CffilLA VISTAOUTLGOK................................. 32
50. DOWNTOWN CffilLA VISTA STUDY..............................................................................................33
51. ClTf OF CHULA VISTA: COMMISSIŒ¡ WORKSHOP ON GROWfH A.'TI TRAFF1C ISSUES.................... 34
52. A'IALYSIS OF BUILDING DIVISION ............................................................................................... 34
53. CHARTING OF PLANNING, BUILDING & ENGINEERING PROCESSEs ................................................ 35
54. OrAY RANCH: FISCAL IMPACT A'(ALYSIS OF THE ClTf/COUNTYRECOMMENDED PLA.'1................ 36
55. ClTf OF CHù1.A VISTA MEXICO M.->.RKET ANALYSIS.................................................................... 37
MEXICO CONNECTIONS..............__........................................,...--..........................................38
56. SAN DIEGO DIALOGUE REpORT """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""'"............................ 38
57. MEsADEOTAYll ......................................................................-...............................................38
58. ENFOQUE-M\JfUALPERcEmoN ............................................-.................................................39
59. ENFOQUE - ECONOMIC DEVELOP~IENT "-"ID THE BORDER ENVIRŒ,MENT .................................... 39
60. ENFOQUE - DUMMAS OF C!IAI\Gt: IN MEXICAN Pouncs .......--................................................ 39
61. CALIFOR1'1IA BORDER BRlEFING ....................................................-............................................ 39
62. BORDER COOPERATION: THE TIruANA - SAN DIEGO REGION....__............................................. 41
63. PANORAMA GLOBAL DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL ...............-..............................................., 4 I
Ü
64. CITY Of SA.' DIEGO, MANAGERS REpORT ON SA-" DIEGOrrUUANA BINATIONAL PLANND;G ......... ~ 1
~) 65. MA.'AGERS REpORT- SAN DŒao-TUUA-'A BINATIONAL PLANNING PROGRA.\! ........................... ~6
66. INTERNATIONAL GATEWAY Of THE A.\IERJCAS ............................................................................ -!6
67. VIRGINIA A VENt.'E BORDER CROSS¡¡'¡G FEASIBILm' STIJDY ......................................................... -!6
68. NUEVAPUERTAMEXIco ............................................................................................................ ~
69. CROSS BORDER CONCERNS IN THE 5..1.'1 DIEGO REo¡o:-l """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""'" H
70. VIRGINIA A VEN1;"E BORDER CROSSD;G FEASIBILITY S1ù1JY ......................................................... ~7
71. THEBRlDGE- BAJA CALIFORNJAREGIONAL INDl'STIUAl.DEVELOP~!ENT GŒDE, 2"'EDmON .....47
72. WHO CROSSES THE BORDER: A VŒWOfTHE SA-"DIEGOrrUUA.'AMETROPOLITAN REO¡D:L...... ~8
73. THE S.~' DŒGO-TuuANA ECONO\fiC REvIEw............................................................................. ~8
74. A VŒWOfTHE BORDER FROM ME:'( co............................................................... ........,.............. ~8
75. SA-'i DIEGOrrUUA.'A: THE L'<TIR.'iATIONAL BoRDE"- Di CO\ß!l~m' RELATIONS: GATEWAY OR
BARRJER?.................................................................................................................................. ~9
76. Tu1.:.~".~ CO\IPROMISO DE TODOSIPr..~" MliNlC:?'.!.PE DESARROLLO DATE: 1996-98............. ~9
77. NORTIi A.\IERICA.' TRADE AGREnIEXT ...................................................................................... ~9
78. DESARROLLO DEL AEROPliERTO................................................................................................. 50
79. THE U.S. - MExICAN BORDEREN\1RON\IENT: ........................................................................... 50
80. PLA.\o'NING fOR PROSPERrIT IN THE S.~" DIEGOIB.'.!A CALIFOR.'ilA REGIO:-l.................................. 51
81. SA."; DŒGO-TuuA.'A L'lTER.'ATIONAL BORDER A.'!.EAPLA.'iNING ATI.AS...................................... 51
82. SIL-\RED SPACE: RETHINKINGTIiE U.S.-MEXICO BORDERE~"VJRON\IENT """""""""""""""""" 51
ü¡
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES & STRATEGIES
1. Charting the Course for the 21 It Century
Date: December 1996
Authors: Mayor Susan Golding, City of San Diego
Report: Characterizes the traditional elements of San Diego's economy (manufacturing,
services, military, tourism, the US-Mexico border), explains the elements of San Diego's
"New Economy" (telecommunicatians, biomedicallbiotechnology, software, electronics
manufacturing, financial and business serVices, and defense and space manufacturing), and
outlines a strategic economic plan ta meet these new needs.
Major Findings: The economic revival that began in 1994 differed significantly from
previous economic recoveries, and instead marked a fundamental transformation of San
Diego's basic economic structures. The strategy ¡ittempts to achieve the folloYiing goals and
abjectives:
. Jobs for all skill levels
. Create new high value-added jobs
. Incr=e per capital incames
. Develop technological base
. Raise the standard of living
To achieve the City's economic goiùs and objectives, Action Plans were developed
within the follo\\ing eight Strategic Elements:
. Business retention, expansion and attraction
- target selected industry clusters, monitor progress, convene an annual review by
a Council of Economic Advisors, develap an on-line Econamic Development
Information System, convene public forums to identify constrnints to the success of
the six targeted industry clusters.
. International trade
target emerging internatianal markets for exparts, attract companies engaged in
products demanded by emerging international markets, develop a legislative
program to monitor and engage state and federallegislatian that affect emerging
markets, support expedited completion ofNAFTA infrastructure prajects.
. Financial services
..
1
formulate action plans to address insufficient access to capital for the six targeted
industry clusters, create a San Diego High-Technology Investment fund.
. Human resources
- make technology a priority in the San Diego Unified School District curriculum,
work with high-technology companies to employ students and develop standards for
secondary schools, pursue state ta.x incentives for businesses who partner with
community colleges, develop apprenticeship/certificate programs.
. Infrastructure
- reopen the San Diego and Arizona Eastern Railway, expedite the Central Bay
dredging project, provide input to the Port District's Airport Master Plan to provide
the needed capacity, continue development of the San Diego Water Assurance Plan,
expedite construction of State Route 905, support siting of a low level radioactive
waste disposal facility. ..
. Strategic alliances
develop strategic alliances with organizations and institutions that can playa
leading role in the "New Economy," initiate a Memorandum of Understanding
between the City and SPAWAR.
. Legislative
advocate state and federal legislation that impacts the ability of the six industry
clusters to expand, develop a comprehensive legislative program.
. Tax, fiscal and regulatory
maintain the City's outstanding bond rating, maintain the City's low business ta.x
structures, develop a benchmarking system to compare San Diego's competitiveness
\vith other urban are:!S regarding ta.xes and fees, develop a benchmarking system to
compare the City's regulatory system with other urban areas, continue to conduct
Regulatory Relief Days to remove unnecessary and costly regulations.
Much of the strategy is focused an increasing the share of job and income growth in the
six following targeted "New Econamy" sectors:
. Telecommunications;
. B i omedi cal!b iotechnol ogy;
. Electronic manufacturing;
. Defense and space manufacturing;
. Software;
. Financial and business services.
2
.""ì Data: economic trends by sector and industry, employment trends, cost of living, household
incame, export market stari..<rics.
2. County of San Diego 1999 - 2000 & 2000 - 2001 Operational Plan Highlights
Date: N/A
Author: County of San Diego
Report: Presents the major initiatives, departmental future objectives and plans, economic
highlights, revenue summary and aperational plan financial summary for the County af San
Diego. Major initiatives supported by' the County include embedding cultural change,
expanding the health and human services safety net, outsourcing infarmation technology, and
focusing on their employees.
Major Findings: The regiocal ecanomy is expected to slow dO\\ll modestly through 2001,
with the California and U.S. economy projected 'to slow after years of strong perfonnance.
The Caunty key economic trends include high empla~ment growth, population grO\~th, and
an increase housing demand. Even with an overall slowdown, these trends \~ill persist
moderately over the two-yé:lr period.
Data: UCLA forecast, G=r San Diego Chamber of Commerce, County af San Diego.
3. Living in a Sustainable. Prosperous Region
Date: June 1999
Author: SANDAG
Report: Summarizes the five parts of SANDAG's Regional Gro\\th Management Strategy:
creating economic prosp~: providing equitable and accessible transportation; preserving
open space; increasing opportunities for home o\\llership; and reforming the state-local ta.'!:
system.
Major Findings:
. Homeownership is the best indicator of a community's success in meeting educatianaI
and economic goals, yet San Diego's homeownership (55%) ranks 671& amang the
natian's 751argest metropolitan areas.
. Education must be classified as part of the region's basic infrastructure, fundamental to
the region's prosperity.
. Transpartation-The improvements that will be made to 1-15 are the best example of
reworking an existing freeway. At a cost of $200 million, it is not cheap, but it is lest
costly, mare expediem and mare practical than building a new freeway.
3
. Habitat-Preservation of open space is a fundamental element of the region's
,<",
infrastructure, and an appropriate means of defining our urban areas.
. Ta:<es- The current state-Ioca1 ta.x system is an impediment to sustainable, prosperous
communities,
4. An Economic Development Strategy for the San Diego Region
Date: 1997
Author: San Diego Regional EDC
Report: Economic development strategy to transfonn San Diego's regional economy into a
globally competitive economy that "ill allow core "New Econol11y" industries to graw, to
create new high-quality jobs, and to raise the standard of Ii\ing through higher per capita
incomes. Focuses on six "New Economy" cluster industries that are competitive, export-
oriented, and technology-driven. These industries represent the best hope for greater
economic prosperity: telecommunications, biotechnology, elecrronics manufacturing, defense
manufacturing, software, and financial and business services, Key elements:
. Business expansion and attraction
. Internatianal opportunities
. Access to capital
. Workforce development
. 1nfrastructure improvements
. Legislative advocacy
. Strategic alliances
. Tax, fiscal, and regulatory
The main objectives of the strategy:
. To improve San Diego's Average Wage ranking among the top 50 D,S, MSA's,
. Annual increases in per capita income will exceed the increases in the local CPI.
. Annual increases in per capita income will exceed the state and national average,
. At least 21 % of all new job creation will occur in the targeted cluster industries.
. Employment participation rates will be maximized and unemployment levels will be
below the state and national averages.
Data: PowerPoint presentation on 5-year goå1s ,for job crearion, economic growth, image
improvement, foreign investment and international trade, public policy advocacy, workforce
development, regional collaboratian, and TEAM SAN DIEGO 'fundraising. Also details
EDC initiatives to achieve its five-year goals.
4
5. Partnership for the New Economy
Date: 2000
Author: San Diego Regional EDC
Report: Comprehensive plans that foster a collaborarive effort between multiple agencies in
approaching regional economic development.
. Technology Entrepreneurship and ~Ianagement - grow the regional poal of technalogy
industry managers.
. Quality of Life - cluster companies ~ill take action and advocate positions that improve
transportation mobility, increase affordable housing options in close proximity to cluster
employment centers, and preserve open space.
. Education and Learning - 1) produce a workforce that meets needs at its economy,
especially the grO\\ing high-tech sector, 2) ensure its residents have access ta educatian
-.'
and training necessary for high-wage careers ta raise the standard of living, 3) act as a
magnet to new employees coming from outside the region because of excellent education
system.
. Finance and Access to Capital - increase access to growth capital for companies in
technolagy clusters.
Data: N/A
6. Technology's Perfect Climate - Finding a Focus
Date: October 2000
Author: San Diego Daily Transcript
Report: Supports focusing economic development energy on the technology industries. 11ús
focus is deemed the best strategy for rai..<ing the standard of living for San Diegans.
Major Findings:
. Capital formarion - campanies need capital to seed growth and the EDC is working
to build awareness in the investment community abaut the opportunities in San
Diego.
. Corporate services - EDC needs to help all of the small- and mid-sized finns grow
and expand by offering serVices far 10catian identification, administrative guidance,
and research data and problem solving assistance.
. International business - EDC. supports import and export trade missions to create
more links with growing markets throughout the world.
. Marketing - San Diego as technology's perfect climate
5
0 Quality of life/infrastructure - EDC is working towards solutions for housing
affordability, traffic mobility, education/training, and land use to help keep the high
quality aflife in tact.
0 Data: N/A
7. Creating Prosperity for the San Diego Region
Date: July 1998
Author: San Diego Association of Governments
Report: Presents the San Diego Regional Ecanomic Prosperity Strategy's recommended
actions, including infrastructure investment and public policy suppõrt to strengthen the
region's economic foundation.
Major Findings: Recommends the follov.-ing ten action steps and who should carry them
out: -'
I. Support and encourage collaborative problem solving between organizations, agencies
and other interests to meet economic performance goals.
2. Ensure sufficient urban land for housing needs to accommodate the region's projected
residential and employment growth.
3. Attract venture capital and expand direct access to banking resources.
4. Reduce the government-imposed cost of doing business through regulatory reform and
privatization.
5. Monitor the region's progress to allow for periodic evaluation of the regional economy.
6. Improve workforce development by establishing a closer link between education tK-12
through graduate level) and the private sector.
7. Recognize affordable housing as a fundamental quality oflife issue.
8. Resolve on-site hazardous waste storage problems.
9. Ensure adequate water supply through diversification of sources and the development of
a competitive water market.
10. Maintain and improve access to domestic and international markets to expand
international trade capabilities.
The final two items should include discussions with representatives ITom the Republic of
Mexico.
Major Findings: N/A
6
8. Achieving Fiscal Reform in California
,~ Date: March 2000
Author: SANDAG
Report: Explains the historical perspective of to day's state-local fiscal relationship, how this
relationship has affected land-use decisions, and opportunities for state-local fiscal reform.
State-local fiscal reform is part of the REGION 2020 Growth Management Strategy.
Major Findings: The state's long-term tendency to shufile maney between itself and units of
local government promotes ins-.ability for governments throughout California and creates
divisions between cities, caunries, schools and special districts. Land use is increasingly
. being used by the State as a reve:JUe generator ra!ber than a planníng tool. The complexity of
the !a.X code is a major barrier to ta.x reform.
Data: Share of local property t:!."'{ by the state. co~~es. cities and other agencies.
9. California's Electricity Options and Challenges
Date: 2000
Author: California Public Utilities Commission
Report: Discusses California's electric system, detailing its history, current landscape, and
reasons why the system is flawed.
Major Findings: Over the pa..<t twenty years. California has transformed its electric system
ITom an integrated and highly regulated system to an unbundled and increasingly competitive
market with federal oversight through the FERc. Under the new system, California residents
pay more for pawer than in the past and the system is more vulnerable to supply shortages.
In summer 2000, blackouts and price hikes occuITed throughout California. In San
Diego, huge increases in energy bills were a result of price hikes in whalesale markets. The
whalesale price hikes cannot be explained by hot weather, increased natural gas prices, or
increases in demand. The prablems that may have cantributed to the price hikes include out-
of-service power plants, transmission supply constraints, and a dysfunctional pawer market.
The state's short-term problems appear to evolve in part fÌ'om past public policy changes
regarding electricity supply combined with customer demand that has grawn due to a robust
state economy.
Recommended actions: I) Work together to prevent pawer outages in the next year; 2)
Invest in smart energy use to tackle short term scarcity and balance supply and demand; 3)
Improve Califarnia's electricity supply; and 4) Reform electricity pricing structure.
7
Data: California generation capacity by fuel type; energy generator sources; sununer 2000
outage statistics; average residential electric bills; residential rates; weekly ISO peaks; -----
comparison of net generation capacity additions and load growth (1996 - 1999); and
California import capacities. California Energy Department, California Power Plants, DOE
Energy Information Administration, California Power Exchange, and California Independent
System Operator provided data.
10. San Diego Regional Energy Plan
Date: December 1994
Author: SAi'IDAG
Report: Provides a framework of specific actions needed to achieve the reliable, affordable,
and environmentally sound goals set by the region. Identifies significant energy issues, offers
a portfolio of preferred energy resources, objectives, policies, and specific Action Plan
measures for local implementation.
Major findings: Energy demands are dorTÚnated by the transportation sector (50+ %), while
residential, commercial, and industrial sectors consume 40% of the region's energy. The
region is heavily dependent upon a relatively small mi.x of resources, which are primarily
imported into the region. With future demand projected to increase 30 % by 2010, the report
recommends continued efficiency improvements and development of legislation aimed at
supporting clean air and greater competition.
San Diego - Baja Region issues: I) Growing energy demand, particularly in Baja, could lead
to competition between the two regions for outside energy resource supplies, resúlting in
higher prices. The two regian's should coordinate planning for new supplies; 2) Increasing
cross-border traffic related to population growth and the effects ofNAFTA will increase the
need for coordination to deal with congestion and air pollution; 3) there are cooperative
energy initiatives that could be pursued directly by local state governments on both sides of
the border to address issues I and 2.
11. 2020 Cities/County Forecast: Land Use Alternatives
Date: November 1998
Author: San Diego Association of Governments
Report: Evaluates the San Diego Region's land development strategies in relation to its goal
of obtaining economic prosperity, habitat preservation, and transportation efficiency. The
Regional Growth Management Techirical Committee identified four land use alternatives,
8
using SANDAG's forecasting/transportation/air models, to assess the difference between
continuing existing policies and implementing the policies recommended in the Land Use
Distribution Element. The main objective of the report is to recommend the best
altemative(s) that would help conserve open space and prevent sprawl patterns of
development.
Major Findings: Land Use Distribution Element supports that each jurisdiction should: 1)
place it's highest density within walking distance of transit stations; 2) encourage mixed use
development and housing types; and 3) incorporate residential uses within large emplayment
areas. Three of the four land use plans studied in the report implements the suggested actions
of the Land Use Distributian Element. The remaining land use alternative corresponds to
existing community plans and development policies without change.
All three of the Land Use Distribution Element alternatives produced better results than
that of the existing policy alternative by replacing sprawl with more compact, efficient and
environmentally sensitive patterns of development. Recommends that the region.s cities
should adopt the policies suggested in the Land Use Distribution Element and take the
necessary actions to ensure that future residenrial development occurs at densities appropriate
to urban areas.
Data: Projected land consumption data for the four land use alternatives and projected
transpartation benefits derived from the three Land Use Distribution Element alternatives.
Data was provided by SANDAG.
12. Growing San Diego's Workforce - Economic Roundtable
Date: January 2000
Author: San Diega Workfarce Partnership
Report: PowerPoint presentation focuses an the San Diego Regional economy and its need
for growing its workforce. Details the need for a high quality and skilled workfarce, the
gro\Y1h industries and occupations in demand, the need for regional collabaration, systematic
deficiencies, and the solutions for positive gro'l\1h.
The San Diego Workforce Partnership is working towards:
. Establishing skill standards by occupation
. Creating career ladders for long-tenn advancement
. Identifying skills and training gaps
. Develaping training programs to upgrade ski1ls
9
. Developing curriculum with community and 4-year colleges to prepare future
workers ,-,
. Developing and sustain Schoal-to-Career programs
. Fostering educators and employers to offer internships, mentoring and job shadowing
to StUdents.
Data: N/A
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
13. Employment Forecast for 2000 - San Diego Roundtable
I
Date: 2000
Author: Marney Cox
Report: Collection of dat:1 and charts detailing-¡J¡e employment trends in the San Diego
reglOn.
Data: 1995 - 2000 Workforce; industry breakdown of economy (1970, 1980, 1998);
economic driver comparison (1957 & 1998); regiooal cluster wage rates and employment
growth; high and low paying job creation; trend-fast gTowing clusters (1995 & 1999); trend-
slow gTowing clusters (1995 & 1999); trend-declining clusters (1995 & 1999); 2000 forecast-
fast gTowing clusters; and 2000 forecast-cìeclining clusters.
14. San Diego Economic Roundtable
Date: 2000
Author: ReeD Development Consulting
Report: Presents charts of information on the housing market.
Data: San Diego County housing market indicators versus new home sales (1980 - 1999);
total annual new home sales & existing home resales (1980 - 1999); new single family home
supply by price (1997 - 1999); new single family home supply versus demand by price;
annual number of actively selling condominium projects; "What's Hot & What's Not" trends;
and 2000 forecast of housing market.
15. 2000 Employment Lands Inventory and Market Analysis
Date: November 2000
Author: San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) and San Diego Economic
Development Corporation (EDC).
10
Report: In Spring 1998, the EDC requested SAi'lDAG to convene an Employment Lands
Committee to examine the issues surrounding the supply and demand of employment land
(non-retail) through~ut the region. The committee was formed in response ta the increasing
concern of the rising cost and rapid absorption of employment land in the region amongst
brokers, developers, and high-tech industry cluster businesses. The report is an update to the
initial 1998 Employment Lands Inventory, which aims to inventory available employment
land in the region and to consider developing policy =ommendations on ways to increase
the supply of desirable emplo}ment lands far high-tech industry clusters.
Major Findings:
. In 2000, there are 15,175 acres of vacant emplo~ment land in the 52 Planning Areas
surveyed. Approximately 9.4 percent (1,420 acres) of the total is immediately
available for development. Currently, there are 1,485 acres planned, proposed, or
.' .
under construction.
. Five Planning Areas contain nearly 60 percem of the vacant emplo~ment land
(immediately available and long-term): Otay M~a (2,888 acres - 19%); Otay (2,357
acres - 16%); Oceanside (1,263 acres - 8.3%): Chula Vista (1,247 acres - 8.2%); and
Carlsbad (1,150 acres - 7.6%).
. Six Planning Areas accounted for the majority of the absorptian between 1995 and
2000: Carlsbad (465 acres); Poway (415 acres); Vista (396 acres); Mira Mesa (314
acres); University (287 acres); and Otay Mesa (279 acres).
. The committee will focus on five general areas in developing a series of
Recommended Ac:tions: 1) emplayment lands capacity; 2) parcel size; 3) re-use/infill;
4) potential employment lands; and 5) vacant public lands.
Data: 2000 Employment Land Inventory by comm~~ market status codes and inventary;
profile of each area (total acreagelpopulation/HH size and units/median income/(cluster)
emplayment/vacancy rate).
16. SANDAG INFO: A Million More People in the Region by 2010
Date: May-June 1999
Author: San Diego Association of Governments
Report: Brief regional autloak of the San Diego &:gion's demographic composition and
economy. Along with a consequent issue of INFO (2020 Cities/County Forecast), the INFO
repart is intended to assist SANDAG's effort in defining the ac:tions recammended in the
2020 Regional Growth Forecast.
11
Major Findings:
. Loc:ù population, employment, and income levels are expected to grow steadily. The .-
change in cost of living is modest. The population ",ill increase by 46,400 people
annually. Since the recession in the mid-1990s, civilian employment will grow by
21)00 annually until 2020. Although predicted to stagnate in the beginning of the
2000-decade, real per capita income will rise from $23,500 in 1995 to $29,200 in
2020.
. Reflective of the region's economic recovery from the mid-1990s recession and a
projected increase in population, housing is expected to increase by 17,100 housing
units per year until 2020. New housing will comprise of approximately 44 percent
SFU and 56 percent MFU. By 2020, the average household size ",ill drop slightly
ITom2.83 in 1999 to 2.81 in 2020.
. By 2020, the region \\ill add 542,800 civ1Úanjobs. The main employment trend for
the region shows that indUStry focus is shifting away from traditional manufacturing
indu..<tries to wholesale trade, retail trade, service, and cluster industries. Since the
rec~sion, the loc:ù economy has matured and is exhibiting less reliance on traditional
durable goods, while focusing on wealth generating industries. In particular, San
Diego Region's industry clusters focus on business services, skilled trades, research
and development, and high technology. Industry. clusters include biotechnology,
computer software, and telecommunications.
Data: Demographic and economic characteristics for the San Diego Region (1970 - 2020),
and InduS!I). and Cluster Employment for the San Diego Region (1995 - 2020). Data was
provided by SAt'IDAG.
17. SANDAG L'lFO: San Diego Region Public Opinion Survey
Date: 1999
Author: San Diego Association of Gavernments
Report: Highlights the findings obtained in the November 1998 public opinion telephone
survey, focusing on the attitudes and perceptions of residents on regional issues, such as
population gro'o\-th, traffic, transportation, education, and public safety.
Major Findings:
. Population growth is seen as one of the regian's top problems. Residents are
conflicted over deciding whether they feel population growth has more negative or
positive impacts. There are contradictary opinions about whether to promote or limit
12
growth, and accepting higher densities. Protecting open space and sensitive habitats
'--'I is important.
. One aut of four residents view ITeeway traffic as the number one problem in the
region, as driving is the most popular means of transportation. The most popular
solution to relieving rush hour traffic is to promote flexible work hours. Residents
are split an recommending increased funding for freeways and other transportation
facilities.
. More than one out of si., residents are concerned abvüt crime and gangs in their
communities. Police protection is an important factor in the quality of life.
Residents would like more neighborhood police patraL
. Educatian is the tap priority for improving the region's quality oflife.
Data: Survey results were provided by SANDAG.
"
18. Continuing Analysis of Shopping Habits in San Diego (CASH)
Date: January - December 1998
Author: San Diego Union Tribune
Report: Information packet on household purchasing patterns for a selected list of retail
products. CASH data is collected via telephone surveys ta find the share of market
distribution among retailers and consumer profiles far over 60 merchandise categories. Share
of market distributions reflect shoppers' mast recent purchases (not sales valume) and they
pro,ide a breakdown among retailers that have a 1.0 percem or more share of most recent
purchase for each category.
Data: Share of San Diego County market; most recent purchase (%) and 1998 consumer
profile.
19. South County EDC's Economic Summit & Urban Land Institute's 2000 Economic
Forecast
Date: 1999
Author: South County EDC
Report: Highlights the issues discussed during the Ninth Economic Summit and Forecast.
Major Findings:
. There must be excellent communication for building a strong regional infrastructure.
Smart grawth and diversificatian are keys ta the region's economy in the futun:.
13
. North of the border, land use issues center around traffic, sewage, and water. Tijuana
is concerned with expediting border crossings, road improvements, and transportation ,, "-
issues.
. Obstacles include ineffective planning laws, failure to address the needs of both large
and small developers, and squatters. Regional obstacles were water shortages,
transportation, sewage, lack of will to succeed, politics, and keeping bandwidth cost
at a level that promotes fiber optic communications.
. Weak entrepreneurial spirit and poorly defined business goals were cited as obstacles
limiting Mexican influence as maquiladora suppliers.
. Baja's economic ou~ook is gro\'<ing stronger, especially with NAFTA promoting the
region's trade and investment growth.
. With Mexico's economy growing and San Diego attracting high tech industry flow,
collaboration between the two regions wm spur opportunities and be:::¡efits. It is also
predicted that a new kind of maquiladora ....ill evolve, providing services and
products via the Internet to the world.
. Companies seeking more space and proximity to affordable housing can only look to
South Bay and across the border areas.
. Significant capital improvements are predicted for the region. Projects include a
passenger tenninal near the Rodriguez airport and improvements to the railroads.
Data: N/A
20. Evaluating Economic Prosperity in the San Diego Region
Date: 1998
Author: San Diego Association of Governments
Report: Abstract of comparative information from SANDAG report on Evaluating
Economic Prosperity in the San Diego Region: 1998 update
Major Findings: Population growth in the region slowed significantly between 1990-1996
compared to gro\'<1h experience in the previous decade. Income and earnings growth rates
continue to be lower than state and national averages and more low-paying jobs were created
than higher paying jabs. Regional housing costs are the third highest among 20
"comparative" metropolitan areas, 32% higher than the national average.
Data: Regianal infrastructure information. Regional economic, employment, and population
data.
14
21. Identifying Regional Industrial Clusters in California (Volume I)
Date: August 1999
Author: San Diego State University Department of Geography
Report: . Part of a four volume series prepared to assist the California Employment
Development Department adopt a rigorous and objective method for identifying regional
industry clusters. Volume I presents an overview of the use af cluster analysis in regional
economic development programs and a review of existing quantitative approaches that have
been used to identify regional industrial clusters.
Major Findings: Recommends cluster identification based on consensus clustering. The
method considers the cluster profiles as generated by each identificarion methad (PCF A and
MVC), and examines the extent to which two particular industries in the economy are
grauped together into the same cluster by each identification method. Generally, the method
considers how each pair of industries is viewed by ~~Itiple identificarion methods.
22. Planning for Shared Prosperity or Growing Inequality?
Date: September 2000
Author: Center on Policy Initiatives
Report: An indepth look at San Diego's leading industry clusters
Major Findings: Targeted industry clusters pay higher wages, require higher levels of
educational attainment and provide health insurance at higher rates than nan-targeted and
non-clustered industries. However, a portion of targeted, clustered jobs pay less than $18,000
per year and/or do not offer health benefits, employ a lower percentage of women and non-
Whites and have lower rates of unionization than non-targeted, non-clusrered industries.
23. Draft Regional Housing Needs Statement, San Diego Region
Date: May 1999
Author: San Diego Associatian of Gavemments
Report: Describes regional housing needs and supply/demand characteristics.
24. SANDAG INFO: Regional Activity Centers
Date: August 1999
Author: San Diego Association of Govemments
Report: SANDAG updates its Activity Centers Inventory annually. Campares the data
callected in 1999 with the previous inventories conducted in 1991 and 1995. Activity centers
IS
are grouped into 8 categories: major employers; office buildings; industrial parks;
government facilities (including schools); shopping centers; hospitals; major amactions
(including hotels); and college/universities. The inventory is used for transportation demand
analyses, public safety monitoring, land use management, and modeling population forecasts.
Major Findings:
. The nuÍnber of major employers and the geographic distribution of employment for
major employers have changed little since 1991, while the number of total e:nployees
employed have fluctuated.
. Office space in the region increased 3.6 million SF from 1991 to 1995, and slightly
over 3 million from 19.95 - 1999. The geographic distribution of new office space
has shifted: new space was more evenly distributed among the MSAs between 1991
and 1995 than it was between 1995 and 1999. The office vacancy rate was 8 percent
in 1999. .-
. Since 199 L almost 30 million SF of industrial space was added to the region, while
another 11.6 million is under construction or proposed. Combine~ the 1'orth County
West and North County East MSAs have the most industrial space under
construction. The industrial vacancy rate was 6 percent in 1999.
. Two hospitals are proposed. This would add 400 new beds to the region's current
inventory.
. Since 1991. the number of retail centers has increased dramatically. while the
regional share of square feet in major centers declined. North City MSA continues to
lead all MSAs with 15.6 million SF of retail space.
. Since 1991, the number of hotel roams has increased by 18 percent. The Central and
North City MSAs account for 96 percent of the existing large hotel rooms in the
region and nearly two-thirds of those that are proposed.
Data: 199111995f1999 major employers by MSA; office/industrial space SF by MSA;
office!"mdustrial vacancy rates; major retail centers by MSA; rooms in large hotels; major
visitor attractions by MSA; 1999 major government centers; and 1999 colleges/universities
by MSA. Data was provided by SANDAG.
25. San Diego Regional Employment Clusters (SANDAG)
Date: May - June 1998
Author: San Diego Association of Governments
16
Report: The report illustrates San Diego Region's "Modem Export-Driven Economy,"
giving details about the economy's 16 industry clusters, the cancemr;cion of cluster
employment, and the history and necessary elements of successful clusters.
Major Findings: San Diego's economic drivers are changing, where one-third of non-
military employment has changed from traditional manufacturing/service indu..<tries to cluster
industries. Many clusters contribute ta raising standards of living by affordmg to pay higher
wages than the regional average wage due to their typical high-growth and high technology
focus. Clu..<ters have strong spatial relatianships and often locate near ene another. The
highest concentration of cluster emplo~ment and growth occurred in Carl.s::::d, Chula Vista,
EI Cajon, Escondido, and seven CP As. (community planning areas) in the City of San Diego.
Data: 1990 and 1996 cluster employment by industry; 1990 and 1996 ave:-.,ge annual wage
ra1es; distribution maps of 1995 total cluster employment and individual industry cluster
employment: and sununary af cluster employment by city and industry. D= was provided
by SAl'IDAG.
26. Technology Park Feasibility Study
Date: January, 2001
Author: The London Group and San Diego Economic Development Corpoæion
Report: Analyzes the feasibility and ra1es potential locations for busine:;s parks planned,
designed, and entitled specifically to service high-technology indusrrie:; in the region.
Identifies several potential sites in South, Caunty, including Chula Vista and Otay Mesa.
Major Findings: The oppartunity to develop a single Regional Technolagy Park (RTP) is
excellent. Many finns, including research, development and productian, expect to expand in
San Diego. A prajected 27% of total industrial and R&D space in the caunty will be
dedicated to biotechnolagylhigh technolagy production uses.
Data: Emplayment, industry, and real estate data.
27. San Diego County Credit Needs Study
Date: 2000
Author: Econamics Research Associates, Bouton & As.sociation, Social & Behavorial
Research Institute, CaIifomia State University, San Marcos.
Report: Prepared for the City/County Reinvestment Task Force. Analyzes the issues
assaciated \\ith access ta credit for affordable housing and small businesses in the region.
Maps small business loans and bank branch locations by census tracts. Surveys small
17
businesses regarding capitalization. Contrasrs the findings in low and moderate-income
census tracts, versus middle and high-income tracts. Recommends actions to improve access /~'.
to credit, including new capital funds through intennediaries in which banks can invest for
Community Reinvestment Act credit.
Major Findings: Low income defined census tracts, which represent 5.4% of all tracts within
the County received 4.2 and 3.3 percent of the total small business loans in 1997 and 1998
respectively. It is estimated that there may be as much as $90 million in annual small
business-loan potential unmet in low- and moderate- income defined tracts. The low and
moderate-income census tracts did attract 61.5% of multi-family mortgage loans during 1997.
Data: Small business loans by census tra~ ,\ithin San Diego County. Bank br;anch location
trends.
28. Economic Impact of the Port of San Diego Econ¡¡my
Dates: 1994 and 1999
Authors: Economics Research Associates (1994), SANDAG (1999)
Reports: Estimates the economic and fiscal impact of all activities that occur ,vithin the Port
of San Diego's jurisdiction, and the proportion that this impact represents of the San Diego
regional economy.
Major Findings: Total annual direct economic impact was estimate at: $3.11 billion for
direct ourpu~ $1.03 billion for direct pa~Toll and $31,000 total direct emplo~ment. This
direct economic impact generated additional indirect economic benefits from the businesses
re-spending the dollars they earned. The San Diego International Airport is the highest
source of Port-related revenues. The Port's economic activity supports more than 66,000
jobs.
Data: Employment, wages, and output, by major categories.
29. SANDAG Info: Traffic by the Numbers in the San Diego Region
Date: January - February 2000
Author: SANDAG
Report: Examines current and historic traffic volume information in different ways. The
first looks at volumes in tenns of vehicle miles af travel (VMT). The second evaluates the
load on our transportation system in terms of the average number afvehicles that are on the
road during the average weekday.
Major Findings:
18
. In the past year, VMT increased by about two millian vehicle miles.
r:'\ . Much of the VMT gains over the past four years are attributed to an improved
economy and an increase in emplayment and population numbers.
Data: Collection of graphs in traffic volumes for the region's 13 freeways.
30. Airport Economic Analysis
Date: Fa1l2000
Author: SANDAG and the Port of San Diego
Report: Provides infonnation about how the expansion of air travel services (or lack thereof)
would affect the region's eco!)omy. The analysis does not account for non-economic fuctors,
such as convenience afuse, environmental impacts, and other quality oflife ¡¡¡sues.
Major Findings: If the region daes not meet full demand for air transportation service. it will
incur opportunity costs, such as: GRP ($4.6 - n.!) billion); emplo~ment (34,000 - 56,000
jobs): populatian (38,000 - 81,000 people); households (15,000 - 32,000 households): total
persanal income ($1.4 - $2.5 billian); and tax revenues (551.5 - 567.9 milliQ[!I. .~:l critical
support to the operations of the high-technolagy, biotechnology, teleco=unications, and
other cluster industries, San Diego's air transportation system issues need to be addressed in
order to service future economic growth.
Data: N/A
31. San Diego Air Commerce Center: Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
Date: August 1997
Author: SourcePoint
Report: Assesses the economic and fiscal impacts that would result from the development of
the San Diego Air Co=erce Center (SANDACC) at Brown Field, a proposed mi"'ted-use
complex in southern San Diego. The project will primarily comprise of air carga and general
aviation facilities.
Major Findings:
. Praject would be a major catalyst far business expansion in Otay Mesa.
. Project will generate nearly 7,500 direct jobs in the vicinity of Brown Field. and over
4,200 additional full-time jobs in the San Diego region as a result of business sales
and spending generated on-site. Canstructian expenditures would support an average
of380 jobs per year.
19
. Wages in the air cargo industry are approximately one-third higher than average
wages in other industries in the region.
. Business sales would increase by nearly $751 million annually as a result of direct,
indirect, and induced spending.
. Upon completion, SANDACC would generate a surplus of'$2.7 million annually for
the City of San Diego.
Data: Summary of air commerce center; sununary of employment impacts; summary of
economic/fiscal impacts; estimated direct employment impact; operations regional impact
upon completion; construction regional impact; market shares of domestic air ITeight among
LA, San Diego, and San Francisco; air cargo tonnage (1991 & 1995); projected net fiscal
. .
impact on City; projected revenue impact on the City by revenue source and land use;
projected cost & net revenue impact an City by expenditure category and land use; estimated
per-acre ta.'(¡lble value ofleased land; estimated assessed value and property ta.x revenue; and
estimated total development costs.
32. City Comments on the Draft EIRIEA and Master Plan for the proposed San Diego Air
Commerce at Brown Field
Date: September 1999
Author: City of San Diego Office of the City Manager
Report: Gives the City's comments on the draft EIRIEA and the Master Plan for the
proposed San Diego Air Commerce at Brown Field. Feasibility of the Bro\\11 Field Cargo
Major Findings:
. Domestic and international air cargo is grO\\ing in volume.
. San Diega's Lindbergh Field is limited in space.
. Considerable volumes of airfreight are trucked from the San Diego area, Mexico and
LAX (Los Angeles).
. A cargo port at Brown Field would accommodate future cargo expansion and
recapture LAX traffic.
The report concludes that most cargo operations would eventually be conducted during
the hours of higher activity at all airports SllITounding Brovin Field. Even though initial plans
call for a low number of daily flights during the first few years of operations, the more
ambitious numbers following would generate ITequent and possibly lengthy delays. This
problem may be mitigated through future military base closures or consolidations.
20
Otherwise, the busy and congested area will continue to challenge the resource of available
airspace within wlùch the safe and efficient flaw af air traffic must be maintained.
Data:N/A
33. Developing High-Technology Communities
Date: Apri12000
Author: U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy
Report: Offers an understanding of the elements and processes involved in developing a
lùgh-technology community. The report presents economic data, a history of high-
technology induztries, discussion about the role of universities and community arganizatians,
public policy and infrnstructure influences, brief descriptions of corporations, and lessons
learned. The report also discusses cross-border issues and their effect on San Diego's high-
technology industries. .'
Major Findings:
. Research universities are valuable resources for technology finns if they are
allowed to actively facilirate linkages \\;rh the private sector. Research
universities are alsa important sources of R & D and future skilled labor for
grawing technalogy firms.
. Current and in-deprh analysis of cluster dara is essential for economic
development planning. Federal economic dara is lagging behind rhe Înformatiaa
needs of communities and regions.
. The technology finns that survived defense cutbacks were rhose, which remained
flexible enough to diversify. As finns in technology clusters develop, rhey
spawn oilier finns in that cluster.
. Small finns (business services and technology) were the driving forces of San
Diega's economic turnaraund.
Economics of rhe San Diego and TijuanalBaja regian have becom~ increasingly inter-
dependent, as Mexican maqui1adorns create jobs (on bath ITonts) and enhance cross border
trade. The region is bi-culturaI, as residents from Mexico and rhe. U.S. regularly cross
barders to shop, visit friends, and vacation. Current cross border problems include illegal
immigration, lack of governmental coordination, poor infrastructure and communication
systems, pallution levels, water resources, and healrh issues.
Data: Employment by industry and unemployment rates (1980, 1990, 1998); 1998 civilian
employment and firms; real per capita personal income index (1985 - 1997); per capita retail
21
sales (1980 - 1995); average annual employment (1990 & 1998); average firm size by
industry cluster (1990 & 1996); U.S. utility patent gnnts by MSA (1990 - 1998); Scripps .. --
Clinic and Research Foundation "Begetting" Pattern; hybritech progeny; value of exports and
cross-border manufacturing (1992 & 1997); international trade passing through the San Diego
Region (1997); biotechnology and pharmaceuticals cluster - average annual wage (1990 &
1998); communications cluster - average annual employment (1990 - 1998); national venture
capital investment over $100 million (1997); primary rupply relationships between San Diego
high-technology clusters.
CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
34. Chula Vista General Plan
Date: 1989, revised 1995 '"
Author: City of Chula Vista
Report: Policies for the City of Chula Vista's future development. Includes the following
elements: Land Use, Circulation, Public Facilities, Housing, Growth Management, Child
Care, Open Space and Conservation, Parks and Re--..reation, Safety, and Noise. It also
includes area plans for Central Chula Vista, the Bayfront AIea, the Montgomery AIea, the
Sweetwater AIea, and the Eastern Territories.
Data: Socio-economic, land use, infrastructure, and public facilities.
35. Chula Vista Economic Development Plan
Date: 1991
Author: Chula Vista Economic Development Cammission
Report: The Chula Vista Economic Development Commission helped oversee the
preparation of the Chula Vista Economic Development Plan, which the City Council adopted
in 1991. This plan is the last City effort to establish a specific economic development policy.
The Plan identifies the following six goals:
. Goal 1: Identify the existing economic base and target new business and industry.
. Goal 2: Develop land use and infrastructure strategies to support economic
development goals.
. Goal 3: Develop a comprehensive marketing and public relations program ta attract
and retain job and revenue generating business and industry, and to enhance
communication with existing business and citizens.
22
. Goal IV: Develop a proactive business assistance program to encourage business
r.-"j retention, growth, and expansion.
. Goal V: Promote tourism and the development of cultural, educational, and
recreational amenities.
. Goal VI: Encourage the provision of broad ranging housing opportunities.
36. Redevelopment Agency Project Area: Implementation Plans (2000 - 2004)
Date: November 1999
Author: City afChula Vista
Report: Flexible policy document that sets 5-year implementation plans for the Town Centre
I Redevelopmem Project Area, Town Centre II Redevelopment Project Mea, Bayfront Area
Southwest Mea, Otay Valley Road, and Hausing. Each section details the blight conditions,
goals/objectives for the project area, and progranv'projecisJexpenditures proposed.
Major Findings: Proposed implementation pragnuns-
. Town Cenue I: consolidation of small parcels and coordination of redevelopment of
under-utilized propenies in the vicinity of the South Bay Regional Center: redevelop
the Leader Building; establish a business recruitment program: update exterior design
gnidelines and establish a façade improvement program; develop a commercial
rehabilitarion laan program; create E Street entranceway; continue to guide and assist
dawntawn business associations; encourage joint public/private prognuns; upgrade
substandard public parking facilities; and redevelop the Third! Alvarado site.
. Town Cenue IT: relocate City public works yard site; work Y.;th schaol districts to
facilitate expansion/reloc:ltion needs; redevelop cammercial sites; and develop a
Civic Center master plan.
. Bayfrant: develop the rnid-Bayfront; clean up contaminated properties; facilitate
redevelopment of port-owned praperties; complete extension of H Street and
realignment of Marina Parkway; and abandan the Coronado Branch rail line.
. Southwest: encourage redevelopment of "Nelson/Slaan" and "Fenton properties in
coordination with Otay Valley Regional Park plans; establish a business
retention/relocation program; establish an industrial! co mni er cial property
rehabilitation loan/grant program; enhance entrance to Main Street industrial business
district; and complete City plans for the "West Fairfield" and "Faivre Street" study
areas; complete "Main Street Pavement Rehabilitation" praject.
23
. Housing: develop affardable housing; provide opportunity for participation by
owners/tenants; provide relocation assistance to displaced residential and non- ~
residential occupants; assist in providing financing for housing construction; provide
for the retention of land controls/restrictionsícovenants; acquire.!dispose of property
for development.
Data: N/A.
37. 1999 Annual Report
Date: 1999
Author: Chula Vistå Downtown Business Association
Report: Gives a brief overview of the organizations committees, 1999 events, 1999 income
statement, 2000 budget, and goals.
" .
38. Otay Ranch: General Development Plan! Otay Subregional Plan
Date: OCtober 1993
Author: The Otay Ranch Joint Planning Project
Report: Development plan for Otay Ranch that combines the requirements of the City of
Chula Vista and San Diego County. Identifies land use pattern/intensities for the Otay Ranch
community and Otay Ranch development goais/policÎes for land use, facility, environmental,
economic and social elements.
Major Findings: Key development plan components-
. Overall pattern of land uses include Village: Rural Estate Areas, area around the
Lakes, Eastern Urban Center (EUC), Industrial. Business ParklFreeway Commercial,
Open Space, Parks, Mobility System, and Pote:nial University.
. Provide for various housing types and styles to meet needs of residents in South
County. Encourage affordable housing and the use of mobile home and
manufactured housing as alternative building types.
. Provide park and recreation opportunities to meet the recreational, conservation,
preservation, and cultural and aesthetic needs of project residents.
. Identify the public facilities necessary to serve the Otay Ranch, and to establish
policies and processing requirements to govern me provision of these facilities.
. Establish goals and policies for air quality in conjunction with Otay Ranch's land,
transportation system, and mobility plans.
Data: NIA
24
39. Chula Vista Redevelopment Plans
/""\
Date: 1974-1990
Author: City of Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency
Report: Economic development policies for specific areas within the city as adopted in the
City's Redevelopment Plans.
Major Findings:
. Bayfront Redevelopment Project Area-adopted in 1974, establishes the policies for
redeveloping Chula Vista's waterfrant on San Diego Bay.
. Southwest Redevelopment Project Area-adopted in 1990, intended to clean-up a
blighted mixed-use zone.
. Qtay Valley Road Project Area-adopted in 1983, provides the Redevelopment
Agency \vith the pawers ta implement redevelopment in the project area.
. Town Centre Redevelopment Plan-adopted in 1976, designed to revitalize the
Central Business District as the commercial-civic focus of the City.
. Town Centre No.2 Project Area-first adapted in 1978, and amended in 1987, 1988,
and 1994, originally established to assist with the renovation of Chula Vista Center
and has since been expanded to assist the new Wa1mart Center, the City's existing
Corporate Yard, and institutional land uses.
Data: N/A
40. Eastern Urban Center Commercial Market A.nalysis for The McMillan Companies
Date: September 2000
Author: The London Graup, Inc.
Report: Commercial market analysis far The McMilli.n Companies that provide strategic
recommendations for the development of freeway commercial and Eastern Urban Center
(EUC) sites within the Qtay Ranch General Development Plan (GDP). The report addresses
development opportunities far retail, hotel, and employment land-use elements.
Major Findings:
. The projected neighborhoad shapping demand is projected grow, but due ta
inadequate land size of designated locations, the estimated seven supportable new
neighborhood centers may not be built. A power center (600,000 SF) may be
supported if development is phased according to expenditure grawth in the market.
Regional shopping center demand is estimated to fall short of the industry
requirement of $275 - $300 million. Hawever, if Baja Califamia resident demand is
25
included, regional shopping demand will increase ITom $256 million ta S381 million.
--
This may support a new one million SF regional "lifestyle" center. Mexican demand
may represent a big influence on the project. A new regional shopping center is
expected to transfer 20% - 35% of CUITent expenditures ITom the Chula Vista Center.
. There is initial opportunity to develop a limited service, 60 - 80 room hotel/motel on
the Freeway commercial site. With eventual development of retailing, restaurants,
and entertainment venues, there will be greater opportunity to incorpornre a 125-150-
room hotel into the mixed-use plans at the EUC.
. South County is projected to capture 30% - 35% of total employment growth in San
Diego County, of which 8,750 - 15,313 R&D high-tech jobs and 12,601 - 23,615
commercial office jobs will be created ITom 2000 to 2010. A large ponion of South
COlUlty'S share of commercial office and R&D space demand can be c:!fJwred at Otay
Ranch due to its location and master plan córÌ1munity environment.
. Recommended Land Use Program: I) a power center (500,000 - 700,00 SF); 2)
clusters offood-ociented retailing; 3) a regional "lifestyle" retail/entertainment center
(1,000,000 SF); 4) 2+ business parks; 5) renter and owner-()ccupied medium and
higher density housing; 6) hotel/motel.
Data: Demographic data; projected residential program build out; projected retail
expenditures ITom existing and future residents; total regional and power center expenditures;
retail inventory; retail capture; cross border traffic counts; retail expenditures at build out;
San Diego hotel inventory; employment projections; San Diega Employment Land inventory;
South County employment growth captures; employment forecast; R & D/office building SF
and acreage requirements; masterplanned communities project "move-in" pragram; and hotel
trends and forecast. SANDAG, Flocke & Avoyer, Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers,
and Smith Travel Research data.
41. Proposed Capital Improvements Program (FY 2000 - 01)
Date: 2000
Author: City of Chula Vista
Report: Highlights key elements of the Capital Improvements Program Proposed (CIP). The
proposed five-year CIP is broken down to detailed improvements for the fallowing project
groups: major and local streets; traffic; sewer; drainage; parks & recrearian; landscaping;
public safety; general government; library; and other projects.
26
'\ Major Findings: This budget represents a substmtial increase over the previous fiscal year.
This increase comes in response to the priorities set by.the City Council to address the
renewal of existing facilities and infrastructure and to provide the improvements necessary to
respond to growth. Circumstances may require a number of projects be implemented at or
near the same time. This has the potential to negatively impact the City's ability to fund
these projects on a "pay as you go" basis, thus different foms of borrowing may be
necessary.
Data: Surrunary and detailed funding plans fer each project and related groups as classified
by fiscal year ITom 2000 to 2005.
42. Chula Vista 2000
Date: Apri11990
Author: Chula Vista 2000 Community Task Fcrce"
Report: Presents the plans, ideas and strategies generated by the Chula Vista 2000
Caromunity Task Force's strategic planning process.
Major Findings: Strategies were developed based on the following themes:
. Investment in People-expanding recreatianal services, fastering an arts community,
creating educational opportunities, and providing family services.
. Commitment to the Environment-roengthening enviranmental assets and ensuring
continued vigilance
. Broadening the Economic Base-a=cting new businesses and enhance return on
Chula Vista's assets.
Data: N/A
43. Memo: Reevaluation of Town Centre 1 Redevelopment Project Area
Date: April 1994
Author: Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency
Report: Memorandum report aims to reevaluate the Towne Centre I Redevelopment Project
Area. Main focal points include past redevelopment actions and future actions to complete
the redevelopment task. Results of the assessment were derived using a physicallland use
inventory, consumer/resident surveys, and a marl<:et study canducted by Williams-
Kuebelbeck & Associates. States that the fallowing projects have been completed over the
last 15 years: Park Plaza; South County Regional complex; Sharp Rees-Stealy medical
building; Park Square ll; ADMA mixed-use project; Third Ave street/sidewalk
27
improvements; new/redeveloped public parking lots; renovation af Memorial Park; Nonnan
/-,
Park Senior Center; and 50+ small construction projects,
Major Findings: Williams- Kuebelbeck & Associates recommended a downto\vn
redevelopment strategy based on the "Califomia Main Street Program," along with a niche
marketing approach to further differentiate the area ITom other commercial disnicts, Further
suggested key downtown attributes be used to II}a:illnize the promotion of the dov.lltown
redevelopment efforts. Finally, it is recommended that the following elements to be
addressed during the implementation process: I) recruit new stores/services: 2) put vacant
space back into productive use; 3) improve quality/availability of public senices; 4) provide
assistance to businesses/property o\mers to improve/maintain properties.
Data: N/ ACity of Chula Vista T O\;l1e Centre Redevelopment Area Parking Study
Date: March 1985
Author: BeIT)man & Stephenson, Inc. ...
Report: Addresses the parking needs of the existing and planned cormnercial developments
loc:lted \\ithin the TO\\l1e Centre redevelopment are:!. The report centers on the follov.ing
topics: identific:ltion of long/short tenn parking supplies; analysis of curb parking fees;
analysis of parking meters and time limits; and identification of additional off-street parking
opportunities,
Major Findings: The current 702-space parking structure at the Village provides enough
parking to accommodate existing demand, However, with full development and occupancy
of the planned second floor of the Village, a projected parking deficit will occur, 'The library
parking facility is not adequate to accommodate demand during the afternoon and evening
hours. A deficit in off-street parking is projected to occur during peak months and further
construction in the area is expected to eliminate virtually all surplus parking, even in
northerly areas where larger surpluses were anticipated,
The report outlines the following recommendations: 1) build an additianallevel to the
parking structure; 2) develop parking on the vacant lot adjacent to the site; 3) modify Park
Way to permit parking opportunities, Other recommendations focus on problem areas in and
around the existing parking structure, Furthennore, the City should consider providing
additional-parking in or around the 3" Avenue area, It is recommended that meters should
remain, current time limits should be increased, and current metered rates should not be
increased,
Data: Parking inventory; pe~ parking accumulation per off-street facility; dawntown peak
parking characteristics; metered parking rates; parking lot utilization; and metered parking lot
28
utilization. The City of Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency, Traffic Engineering
,'--::., Department, and Berryman & Stephensan, Inc provided the data used in the report.
44. Third Avenue District Market Opportunity Study and Recruitment Strategy
Date: September, 2000
Authors: Economics Research Associates and Tuchscher Development Enterprises
Report: Presents a retail market analysis and recruitment strategy for the TO\\11 Centre I
Redevelopment Project Area. The report presents a description of the demographic and
market context, a "retail gap analysis" that identifies oppartunities for retail recruitment, a
discussion of development and marketing concepts, and a marketing and recruitment strategy.
'. . .
Major Findings: The neighborhood and Downto\'111 Cammunity market areas are large
enough to support a fine, but limited local commercial district along Thjrd Avenue. TIrird
Avenue is large enough to accommod.a1e several clusters (or districts \\ithin a District) that
should be located within walking distance of each other.
Data: Demographics, buying-power estimates, ta.xable-sales, real estate characteristics, and
"gap analysis."
45. City of Chula Vista: Business Targeting and Development Strategies
Date: September 1993
Author: Williams-Kuebelbeck & Associates
Report: Citywide market assessment and economic strategy for the City af Chula Vista.
Section II presents an assessment of the City's most competitive strengths in relation ta the
City's ability to attract new businesses and to nurture and grow local businesses. Section III
reviews Chula Vista's labor force relative to the City's ability to attract new businesses, and
identifies specific region-serving businesses the City should target and recruit. Section IV
gives area specific development strategy recommendatians for the City's major
redevelopment areas and eastern territories. Section V provides an analysis of Chula Vista's
commercial and industrial land uses to assist in long-term land planning.
Major Findings: Chula Vista has numerous competitive strengths: good location;
availability of develapable land; relatively strong real estate market conditions; supportive
local government agencies; and strong existing base of major employers. Suggests that the
City recruit the following industries: medical services; education services; retail services;
government services; recreation and lodging services; wholesale trade; natianaJ[mternationai
high grawth and "high tech" manufacturing campanies; and NAFTA beneficiary businesses.
29
The report supports specific land development strategy recommendation:; as follows:
. Tom! Centre I Redevelopment Project ÁIea (Downtown) - "MaÏn Street" strategy (e-
using an intensified redevelopment effort using older, under urilized buildings.
Between G and H Streets, a 2 - 4 story mixed-use office development is suggested
to help unify the downtown district and create more pedestrian traffic.
. Bayfront Redevelopment Project ÁIea - For the northern section on the watemont,
existing recreational mi'{ed-use development in the area should be reduced in
intensity. For the southern section, under:developed and vacant industrial properties
lands for commercial or office use should be reassessed.'
. Southwest Redevelopment Project ÁIea - suggests that the City encourage lot
assemblage for small building or multi-tenant business parks, wbile also targeting
lower-end users to frondoad industrial buildings. Frontloading would attract small
'.
wholesale trade and distribution businesses.
. Otay Valley Road Redevelopment Project ÁIea - recommends th2r the City hasten
the widening efforts of Otay Valley Road in order to support the development of the
Otay Rio Industrial Park. Additional commercial thoroughfare uses (fast food
restaurants, tirelauto service, convenience stores, etc.) is also suggested for
development on Otay Valley Road east afthe 805 ITeeway.
. Eastern Territories - attract more industrial businesses into the Otay Ranch and
E:1st1ake area. The Eastern Urban Core represents an opportunity to develop a new
regional or community shopping center.
Data: 1992 high groMh manufacturing industry grawth; Wholesale trade and NAFTA
beneficiary Target industries; 1993 vacant land sununaries; projected commercial and
industllal acreage requirements; commercial and industrial space supply and needs through
2015; and commercial and industrial absorption projections. Williams-Kuebelbeck &
Associates and the Chula ¥1sIa Planning Department provided the data.
46. City of Chula VISta Retail Land Use Analysis
Date: August 2000
Author: Economics Research Associates
Report: Estimates the amount of retail land Chula Vista can support fro~ 2000 to 2020.
ERA used a model based on e¿tirnates of consumer buying power, market captures rates, and
industry perfonnance averages.
30
Major Findings: Projections suggest that Chula Vista "i\1 experience a declining surplus of
commercial-retail acreage through the year 2020. By 2020, it is possible that demand ITom
the Mexican market cauld absorb much unot all of this surplus.
Data: Estimated current/planned retail acreage; 2005-2020 supportable retail land uses;
2005-2020 designated/potential retail land uses; 2005-2020 existingfpotential retail by type of
center; estimated retail sales per household: share of retail sales by type of center in San
Diego MSA; current retail land utilization by center type: 2005-2020 potential retail
saleslhouseholds by market area. SANDAG, City of Chula Vista. and ERA provided data.
47. Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency's Official Statement for 2000 Tax Allocation Bonds
Date: October 2000
Author: Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency
Report: Gives details about the $17 million -T8o'I: Allocarion Bonds issued for the
redevelopment of the Town Centre II project, the Otay Valley Road project, and the
Southwest project (Merged Project). The statement includes descriptions of the bonds issued,
sources of payment, bondholder's risks, agency description, the project, financial
infonnation, debt structure, and legal matters.
Data: Projected ta.'I: revenues/bond retirement schedule; Merged Project assessed valuations
(1996-2001); 199912000 ten largest ta.xpayers: Merged Project historical assessed valuation
and ta.x increment revenues (1996 - 2001); Merged Project ta.x collection (1996-2001); Chula
Vista/San Diego Co.lCalifomialUS median personal income (1995-1999); San Diego wage
and salary workers by industry (1996-2000); Chula Vista' total ta.xable tran.sactians (1995-
1999); and Chula Vista Building Activity and Valuatian (1994 - 1999).
48. Economic Land Use and Zoning Study for the Southwest Redevelopment Project
Date: August 1999
Author: Rosenow Spevacek and Group, Inc.
Report: Updates the 1995 Economic. Land Use. and Zoning Sntdy cormnissioned by the
Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency to define economic inÏtiatives in the commercial
corridors in the defined Southwest Redevelopment Project Area. Reviews the market
demand for industrial, commercial, and ather job generating uses to determine which
usersfindustries are best suited for developable sites within the Study Area. Alsa reviews
existing land use, zoning, and development policies to determine whether or not these
policies conflict and/or prohibit the development of the uses targded for the Study Area.
31
Major Findings:
. Study Are:1 continues offering market opportunities to small businesses and
affordable industriallretail space in the South Bay market area.
. Regional e~onomic growth and implementation of the NAFTA agre=ent has not
caused an increase in demand for industriallretail commercial space in the Study
Area over the past four years.
. The Study Area's lack of vacant lots of 5 acres or more in size is impeding new
demand for industrial leases. However, assembly of smaller lots is difficult and
costly due to mixed ownership and land use patterns.
. The agency is projected to have the capacity to issue approximately S5.9 million of
tax allocation bonds for non-housing redevelopment activities by IT 2009-10. It is
recomme::¡¿ed that these funds be used as seed funding for programs to accommodate
infill indu..<aial development and rehabilitáriòn of the Study Area.
Data: Chula Vi>.:l and San Diego Co. population, income, and employme::¡¡ data (1990-
2003); 1999 exi,¡ring land use of Chula Vista; 1999 vacant land inventory in stUdy area;
industriallretail space absorption/vacancy trends (1995-1998); industriallre".ail lease rate
trends (1995-1998); comparison of industrial and warehouse lease rates; industrial building
pennit value (1994-1998); 1999 swvey of selected industrial center, projected annual
industrial employment (1995-2002); retail leasing activity near stUdy area; comparison of
retail and industriallwarehouse lease rates; swvey of selected retail/industrial c=ers: detailed
Chula Vista tax::1bie sales (1990 - 1997); ta.~le penni¡ quotient analysis (19SG!199011997):
major retail center tenant profile; completed and proposed retail/other projects (1999);
historidprojected assessed values; projected ta.x increment revenues; bonding capacity
analysis. SMlJAG, National Decision Systems, Construction Industry Research Board,
Chula Vista Economic Development Department, Grubb & Ellis, San Diego Transcript
Leasing Notes provided data, California State Board of Equalization, and Rose Spevacek
Group, Inc.
49. ~Community Tune" Roundtable: Downtown Chula Vista Outlook
Date: June 1997
Author: Burnes Consulting
Report: Recap of the discussions and recommendations expressed during the "Community
Tune" roundtable discussion. Provides focus on pertinent concerns and initiates the process
of economic/community development in target areas.
32
Major Findings: All of the participants found consensus in identifyiDg downtown Chula
Vista's assets: a good location in the center of the city; adequate parking; a unique
orientation; new business activity; a market,for daytime business; and good pedestrian access,
The consensus of downtown Chula Vista's needs: an iDcrease iD ~an traffic; an
improved image to compete with other regianal doWntowns as a desti=rion; improved rental
rates for commercial space; unity among merchants and property OVine:!: a good business
mix; improved (perception of) safety; streetscape impravements; cou..~-ard opportunities;
more specialty retail and nightlife entertainment; etc.
Recommends that Chula Vista commit ta developiDg a fully funde:i downtown program
to help impro,-e the area's core issues, supporting that the City follow the typical "Main
Street" approach in preparing its future downtown strategy.
Data: N/A
"
50, Downtown Chula Vista Study
Date: April 1985
Author: Alfred Gobar Associates, Inc.
Report: Market analysis that details existing market conditioI15 and development
opportunities for commercial land uses in Downtown Chula Vista. The analysis is based on
an evaluation of historical ta:Qble retail sales in the City relative to Kaional City and San
Diego County, a history of taxable retail sales patterns Vvithin the City, an analysis of the
trade area that supports merchants in Downtown Chula Vista, and a brief evaluation of the
impact on commercial establishments in Chula Vista from visitors.
Major Findings: (hula Vista's retail sector is gradually lasing relative market share in San
Diego County, primarily due ta inroads related to a strong retail se-:.cr in National City.
Chula Vista's strongest retail sector, the general merchandise category, dœs not benefit other
merchants iD the area, as they are often self-sustained freestanding outle:s that do not anchor
other stores/businesses. Particularly weak retail sectors in Chula ,,-= include the auto
sector, the building materials sector, and the farm implement sector, Possible mitigation
strategies include development of a more cohesive mix af in1ine tenams <D: regianal shopping
centers in Chula Vista, Revitalizatian of the Chula Vista Shapping Center may help the
perfonnance of the "other" retail sectors in the City.
The key to improving the -Downtown sector's campetitiven~ is ta devel9P new
restaurants and a supermarket, These additions will help anchor and <mIact customers to the
'-c.
33
adjacent retail stores in the area, but will have an adverse effect on the existing local
restaunmts that are not as competitive.
Data: 1975-1983 ta."<Bble sales flaws by store type (calculated as a total, per outlet, per capita,
and percentage of San Diego Caunty) for Chula Vista, National City, and San Diego County;
descriptian of major shopping centers; consumer survey and characteristics of Chula Vista
shoppers; demographic characteristics of Chula Vista and San Diego County; demand
analysis for new retail development; and San Diego County visitor trends. The California
Stale Board of Equalization, on-site surveys, 1980 U.S. Census Bureau, URBAN DECISION
SYSTEMS, INC., the San Diego Chamber of Co=erce, and the Chula Vista and Karional
City Departments ofFinance supplied data.
51. City of Chula Vista: Commission Workshop on Growth and Traffic Issues
Date: September 1999 ".
Author: City ofChula Vista
Report: PowerPoint document highlighting the City of Chula Vista's Commission Workshop
on growth and traffic issues. Reviews the generu plan and grOVith management program,
ma.srer planned community process and projects, traffic standards and analysis methods,
planning and financing of raadways, GMOC traffic threshald standards, and future actions.
Data: Regional population and growth trends; map of Chula Vista's 1965 Generu Plan;
Chula Vista threshold standards; map of Chula Vista's 1989 General Plan; active major
project map; inventory of proposed and developed planned community projects; Chula Vista
~ tiered development review process; list of arterial improvements by 2000-200S; level of
sen;ce comparison charts; and travel time comparison chart.
52, Analysis of Building Division
Date: January 2000
Author: Zucker Systems
Report: Reviews staff performance standards to help set current and projected staffing needs
mthin the City of Chula Vista Planning & Building Department. Based on historical
records, observations, and persoÎmel interviews, the report recommends that the "plan check"
time frame be s~ortened, add inspections to adequately implement codes, and train examiners
and staff to execute "plan check" functions, among others.
Major Findings:
34
. Plan Check-Chula Vista's plan check times are slower than recommended, and the
/'~, development community desires much faster plan check-
. Building Plan Exanùners-Building plan examiners are not adequarely trained or
skilled for the plan check functions.
. Staffing-Much of the Building Division staff is new and not yet fully mined.
. Functions-There are numerous areas where the efficiency and effectiveness of the
building permit and inspection functions can be improved.
. Automation-The new Sierra computer system needs additional enhancements and
staff training.
. Inspection Counting Methods-Chula Vista uses a method of counting inspections
which results in a higher number of inspections per inspectar than moSt communities.
. Staffing-The current level of authorized staffing for the building section is
appropriate. '.
. Code Enforcement-The current code enforcement program primarily responds to
complaints "ith only minimal proactive code enforcement.
. Space-Current space alloc:lted in City Hall for the building function and counter
activities is inadequate.
Establish goals and policies for air quality in conjunction \\ith Otay R.1nch's land,
transportation system, and mobility plans.
Data: Tabulated summaries of observations/persannel interViews, organizarion flow chart,
San Diego County City comparisons of City Building Department staff; warkload factors by
position, historic:ù permit and plan check data, staffing estimates, and personnel
questionnaire. Data was pravided by Zucker Systems.
53. Charting of Planning, Building & Engineering Processes
Date: February 2000
Author: Zucker Systems
Report: Charts the planning and related processes for three recently approved projects,
including Easdake Trails, Family Resource Center, and Leviton. Gives an understanding of
the City's permit processes, to be utilized in ather projects.
Major Findings: The follawiIÍg processes were charted:
. Administrative design review/ Site plan approval
. Building permit process
. Design Review (DRC)
35
. Engineering plan & map processing
,-,
. Environmental processes
. General Development Plan (ODP)/ Specific Plan Area (SPA)/ Zone Reclassiñcation
(Rezone)
. General Plan Amendment (OP A)/ Zone Reclassification (Rezone)
. l\!inor Subdivision (TPM) and Parcel Map (PM)
. Pre-application Processes
. Public Facility Financing Plan (PFFP)
. Public Hearing Process
. Special Use Permit (SUP)/ Conditional Use Permit (CUP)
. T=tive Subdivision MapTId
Data: Project descriptions and processes flow charts.
'".
54. Otay Ranch: Fiscal Impact Analysis of the City/County Recommended Plan
Date: JanW!ry 1993
Author: Ralph Andersen & Associates
Report: Determines the net fiscal impact of the proposed Otay Ranch Project on the City,
County, and selected special districts. Scope of the analysis is ta consider the full thin:y-year
development schedule of the project, as well as the tenth year after development is complete.
Major Findings:
. Tne projeCt will result in a positive net fiscal impact in 1994 and 1995, while it will
have a negative fiscal impact for the City's general fund ITom the year 1996 through
2009. From 2010 through 2023, the City's general fund will gain positive net fiscal
impaCtS. Positive net impacts range from $33,070 (1995) and $3,246,213 (2019).
Negative net impacts range ITom $62,947 (1996) to $778,482 (2009).
. County roads fund, flood control fund, and rural fire protection district impact shows
a positive impact over the entire thirty-year period.
. The County general fund incurs a positive impact in all study years ITom $5~8,336 to
$8,359,124.
. Tne Library District incurs a positive net impact from 1994 through 2014 and a
negative net impact from 2015 thraugh 2023 With a cwnulative positive impact of
$168,599 over the thirty-year period.
36
Data: SUI!lIIIaIy tables of net fiscal impacts, recommended land use plan factors, historical
San Diego land use patterns, and forecasted tables of project expenses and revenues. Data
used in the report was provided by Ralph Andersen & Associates.
55. City of Chula Vista Mexico Market Analysis
Date: July 1993
Author: Williarns-Kuebelbeck & Associates, Inc.
Report: Describes and evaluates the historical demographic and economic conditions found
",¡¡thin Tijuana and Baja, California. Provides businesses and developers background data on
Tijuana. The report is broken dO~\ll inta 3 sections: 1) general demographic and
economic data of Tijuana; 2) regional and local impacts of the proposed NAFTA ag:r=ent;
and 3) a Mexico expenditure analysis.
Major Findings: The report cancludes that the San Diego County business communIty is
positioned to benefit from NAFTA. With close proximity ta Mexico, it is predic:ed that the
follo~ing competitive industries \\ill benefit the most from NAFT A: aerospace, computer
software, electronics, banking, insurance, construction, biotechnolagy, and se:-;ices. The
indu..<tIÍes that employ unskilled labor, such as agriculture, apparel/textiles, and basic
manufucruring/assemblage, will be most adversely affected by increased price compeÚtion
for labor. The City of Chula Vista is also expected to experience economic benefits due to
incre:lSed demand for high tech manufacturers, plastics product manufacture::;, chemical
producers, warehousing space, telecommunication equipment makers, etc. Recommends that
Chula Vista identify and further encaurage future development of industries and business that
would benefit ITom NAFT A.
The Mexican expenditure analysis found that nearly 20 - 25 percent of Chula Vista's
regional and local shopping center customers are residents of Mexica, generating
approximately 25 - 30 percent of the total retail sales surveyed in selected shopping centers.
The top cancerns influencing these shappers' ultimate retail center choice include cleanliness,
value for dollar, security and safety, parking availability and canvenience, and stare variety
Data: 1970 - 1990 demographic and employment data for Baja and Tijuana, and 1991 lljuana
land use. Data was supplied by Censo de Poblacion, Insituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e
Infarmacion (INEGI), Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico (SHCP), Secretaria de
Asentamientos Humanos y Obras Publicas, and Williarns-Kuebelbeck & Associates, Inc.
37
MEXICO CONNECTIONS
/""'\
56. San Diego Dialogue Report
Date: January 2000
Author: San Diego Dialogue
Report: Monthly digest of trends affecting the San Diego and Tijuana regions. Articles
include:
. "Cross-Border hea1th-care integration is within our reach, says Mexican official"
. "Regianal planning needs to encompass the entire regian - including Tijuana."
Article supports. cross-border planning be~een the San Diego and, Tijuana regians.
Cross-border regional planning is important due to the growing maquiladora industry
growth. NAFTA trade opportunities, and economic prospects of the Otay Mesa area
and the proposal ta build a cross-border tetffiinal at Tijuana's Rodriguez Field.
. "Ð:!uca!Or"s new role is head master for S.D. teachers."
. "Peace prepares RITA (Regional Infrastructure and Transportation Agency) for
formal hearings."
. Cross-Border Economic Bulletin." Discusses the patterns of change in the nominal
and real value of the nùnimum wage since 1980. Both San Diego and Tijuana have
experienced a long-run tendency for the real value of the minimum wage to decline.
Mexico's economic crisis in 1982, late 1980s, and mid-1990s had severely hannful
impacts on the minimum wage. In Califomia, major corrections to the value af the
miDimum wage have partially counteracted the erosion of its value since 1980.
. "Border Wait Time Bulletin."
. "At border crossings, an unwelcome gift during the holidays."
Data: Charts of the real value ofnùnimum wage 1980 - 1999, annual change in real
nùnimum wage, Tijuana labor farce earning twice the minimum wage or less, and trends in
wait time; and 1999 US and Mexican health care statistics. The Mexican Institute for Social
Security (IMSS), Metro Networks of San Diego, U.S. Customs Service, BLS, INEGI,
CALIFORNIA Department of Industrial Relations, Industrial Wage Cammission, Twin Plant
News, and the San Diego Dialog provided data.
57. Mesa De Otay II
Date: 1997
Autho;: Propuesta Ayuntamiento de Tijuana, The City af San Diego
38
,r, Report: Proposal for a new Port of Entry Otay II. The creation of the Port of Entry Otay II
would have the benefit of consalidating and integrating the Binational road nem'ork such as:
The widening ofFWY 905, FWY II and FWY 125 and the Corridor 2000 proj~t.
58. Enfoque - Mutual Perception
Date: SpringlSwnmer 1999
Author: Center for U.S. - Mexican Studies, University of California, San Diego
Report: Contemporary challenges in Mexico - U.S. relations; Structural changes beyond
trade; Mexican migration.
59. Enfoque - Economic Development and the Border Environment
Date: Spring, 1998
Author: Center far U.S. - Mexican Studies, Unive¡;sity of California, San Diego
Report: Excerpts trom chapters of "Sustainable Development in San Diego- Tijuana,
Environmental and Social Implications of Economic Interdependence Edited by ~!ark
Spalding (to be published in late 1998?). Article on the International Wasteware~ T re:ltrnent
Plant, by Joanna Salazar.
60. Enfoque - Dilemmas of Change in Mexican Politics
Date: Fa1I/Winter 2000
Author: Center for U.S. - Mexican Studies, University of California, San Diego
Report: Changing Circumstances in Mexican Politics
61. California Border Briefing
Date: July, 1999
Author: Caltrnns District 11
Report: Border trnnsportation issues
NearTenn Projects:
a) State Route 905
Proposed 6 mile extensian from Sr-80S to Port of Entry (Otay Mesa)
Cast $255 mi1lion ($153.7 million proposed). Status- Environmental
documents under way July 1999
b) State Route 125 progress
Fanita section under construction
Sweetwater sectian under construction
39
Tollway Corridor protected prior to Construction in 2000.
$560 Million under construction by end fiscal year '1999-2000 r--\
c) State Route 7 (to Complete 2003)
Ca!exico - outside study area
d) Staíe route 111 (to complete 2003)
Mexicali- outside study area
e) State Route 78 (to complete 2005)
Brawley bypass - outside Study area
Lon2 Term Projects
a) 1-511-805 Border Crossing Modification
b) Staíe Route 11 & proposed Port of Entry (east ofOtay Mesa)
c) San Diego & Arizona! Eastern Railway
To repair, modernize & reopen railway in~¡~ding continuation to Port of San Diego
r-1inirnum cost to reopen $10 million
$100 million to modernize
d) New Port of EntIy a Jacumba
-outside study area
e) Ca!exico Port of Entry
Outside study area
Andrade Port of Entry
Outside study area
Baja Califomia Transuortarion Projects
(within Study Area)
a) EI ChaparraWIrginia Ave Proposed P.O.E
$21.5 Million (future Plan)
b) Tijuana Light Rail
$240 million (future plan)
c) International Avenue Tijuana
$2.2 Million (schedule completion 2001)
d) Tijuana - Tecate Railroad Privatization
(future plan)
e) Tijuana 2000 corridor $65 million
(scheduled campletion 2001)
Data: Trade data
40
62. Border Cooperation: The Tijuana- San Diego Region
Date: June, 1998
Author: Luis Herrera-Lasso
Report: A three Models Case study - Border systemslRelationships
63. Panorama Global de Crecimiento Poblacional
Date: July, 1998
Author: Mario A. Plata Castanas
Report: Cansejo Estatal De Poblacion De Baja California; Conference Paper on impacts of
Popularian Growth.
64. City of San Diego, Managers Report on San Diego/Tijuana Binational Planning
Date: 1997 "
Author: City of San Diego
Report: International Border Area-Workshop of December 4, 1997; San Diego-Tijuan
Binational Planning Program; Preparation of Binational Plan far the Area of Inf1uence of the
San Ysidrarrijuana Port of Entry
Sublect Matter
Documentation for Binational workshop on:
Binational agreements
Adopted plans
Need for Joint Cooperation
Major Issues/challenges
Anticipated Work Programs
Proposed Majar Projects
U.S. Projects
Mexican Projects
Infrastructure Issues
23 Major Projects in Border Region
There are 23 currently proposed major projects on bath sides of the international border.
The largest private project is the international Gateway of the Americas, a unique
binational proposal by C. Samuel Marasco, Chief Executive Officer of Land-Grant
Development. Other propased major prajects pertain ta new border crossings, multirnodal
transportation fucilities, energy plants, environmental protection, and commercial
41
enterprises. Following is a brief description of these projects. Attachments 5 shows the
location of major projects in the San Diego! Tijuana region. Attachment 6 shows those
projects located around the San Ysidrorrijuana Port of Entry.
Binational Pro;ects
a) International Gatewav of the Americas - This spans both countries and provides
alternatives for transforming this presently unattractive border crossing area into a new
and exciting environment. The centerpiece of the proposed project is a unique retail,
hotel, office and emertainment complex that bridges the USlMexico border creating a
distinct and memorable place for the meeting of Mo cultures. The multi-faced proposal
includes a large shopping and restaurant area that can be accessed through new customs
and immigration points ITom both sides of the border. The project proposes to join the
two nations through a magnificent and s)mbóiic new bridge and through multi modal
linkages, thus creating a world class border crossing.
'This redevelopment proposal has been presented to many organizations and agencies in
the public and priYäIe sectors locally and in Me:cico. AD. Exclusive Negotiating
Agreement (ENA) "ith the San Diego Redevelopme::lt Agency is being prepared and
processed separately. 'This Agreement is scheduled to go before the Redevelopment
Agency on July 15, 1997.
An ENA as utilized in California Redevelopment law sets forth time lines and the
conditions for stud)1ng a particular proposal as other necessary documents for entering
into subsequent agreements are prepared. An ENA gives exclusive rights to a developer
for a limited period of time to allow for identificarion of strategies obtained through
public input and refinement of proposals as necessary. A tentative schedule for border
planning is included in Attachment 7. (project leads: land-Grant Development & City of
San Diego Redevelopment Agency).
b) Olav Mesa II Port of Entrv- A Pro'posed new border crossing located
approximately two miles east of the existing OIay Mesa Port of Entry. (project lead:
County of San Diego).
42
c) San Die!!o & Arizona Eastern Desert Line- A proposal to re-open the existing
railway and restore service between San Diego and the Imperial Valley with continuing
service to the east. (project Lead: Metropolitan Transit Development Board).
d) Vinrinia Avenue Border Crossin!!- A proposal to re-open a closed border
crossing point to meet future crossing demands. One alternative includes the designation
of a crossing for southbound vehicular traffic only. A second alternative considers a
northbound crossing only, limited to high occupancy and transit vehicles. Both
alternatives incorporate pedestrian crossing. (Project Leads: Federal Governments of the
US and Mexico.
e) Parallel Svsteml Border Sewage Imorovement Proiect- An international
wastewater tre:ltment plant and related facilitiës 'whose objective is to reduce the amount
of untreated effluent entering the San Diega region from Tijuana. This project \vill also
reduce adverse coastal and marine impacts and increase potential for future reuse of
reclaimed wastewater. (Project Lead: International Boundary and Water Cormnission).
United Stares Proiects
a) San Ysidro Intermodal Transoortation Facilitv- A study to build an intermodal
center = of Interstate 5 in the vicinity of the San Ysidra Trolley Station. Alternatives
under consideratian propase track realignments, new access roads, private property
acquisition, e1imination of vehicular traffic to create a pedèstrian plaza, staging areas or
buses, jitneys shuttles and ta:cis; and better overall circulation. (Project Lead:
Metropolitan T=it Development Board).
b) RailTex- A proposed cargo transfer station (trucks and railroad) and accessory
starage use easterly orE. Beyer Blvd. In San Ysidro. (project Lead: RailTEX).
c) Stale Route 905 - A freeway that needs ta be constructed by the year 2000 in
order to Accommodate projected commercial traffic entering or leaving the existing Otay
Mesa Port of Entry. (project lead: Califamia.Department of Transportation).
43
d) Sta!e Route 125- A new ITeeway needed to connect narth/south commercial
traffic to The Interstate. Highway System. Its routhemmost section is being planned as
toll ITeeway. (Project Lead: California Transpor=ion Ventures).
e) Sta!e Route 11 - A new toll ITeeway via the proposed Otay Mesa II Port of Entry
that would connect with State Route 905 and 115, and with the Tijuana 2000 project
described below. (project le~d: California Deparnnent of Transportation.)
f) Otav Mesa Road Widening - A proposed vádening ITom four to six lanes to
improve traffic flow which is expected to be completed in the spring of 1998.. (project
lead: City of San Diego).
g) UETA Dutv Free Shoo - A proposal-tO establish a Duty Free shop and parking
facility n the vicinity of the San Ysidroffijuam Port of Entry. Preliminary design plans
have been prepared.(Project lead: Duty Free Inwnational Company).
h) . Baia Mex Insurance Parking Facilitv- .J.. proposal to purchase City property and
combine with private property to install an 89-:-pace parking lot. (Project lead: Baja Mex
Insurance Company).
i) Border Power Plant - A proposal to build a major electric power plant just north
of the international line east of the existing Otay Mesa Port of Entry. Anticipated for
1999. (project Leads: Pacific Gas and Electric and Us Generating).
j) Brown Field Imorovements - A priVaIe development team, Brown Field Aviation
Park, is working with the City to obtain a lcng-term ground lease and to update the
master plan for the airport. The planning process will enviro~ental analysis, runway
alternatives, air space/air cargo/aviation acriviry projections and financial feasibility.
(Project lead: Brown Field Aviation park).
44
Merica Pro;ects
a) Lil1:ht rail svstem (LRT)- A five phase project that will provide a direct
connection to The San Diego Trolley and to populated areas of Tijuana. Scheduled to
commence in late 1997 and to be completed in 1999. (project Lead: City ofTijuana).
b) Tiiuana 2000 - A proposed peripheral ring that would re-route vehicular traffic
going to the coastal areas and southern communities of Baja California, and to the
Abelardo 1. Rodriguez Airport. The Objective is to divert traffic away ITom the
congested streets of the Tijuana cenII:ll area. (project Leads: Secretary pf Public Works-
SAHOPE).
c) International Avenue - A Project to "iinprove circulation in the vicinity of the
International Border and between borde: crossings. (Project Lead: City ofTijuana).
d) Pedestrian Link ITom Border to Revoiucion Ave - A praject to provide better and
safer access to ped~strians coming ima the city and to give a better image ofTijuana. The
Link is utilized by approximately 20 million people annually. (Project Lead: City of
Tijuana).
e) Pedestrian Tourist Route - A proposal to install directianal and arientation
elements, new curbs and ramps and to r<::nadel tourist attraction along the main
pedestrian routes aften used to remm to the barder crossing. (Project Lead: City of
Tijuana).
f) Zapata canvan in Coloma Libertad - A proposed new callector road serving
Colonia Libertad, a neighborhood near the international line. (Project Lead: City of
Tijuana)
g) Boulevard Bellas Artes - A proposed road to link Otayand La Presa zones. It
will unify the northern, eastern and southern areas of the C!ìY ofTijuana. (project Lead:
City ofTijuana).
45
h) Otav and Matamoros -_A Proposed new road in the Otay zone of Tijuana.
(Project Lead: City ofTijuana). ~~
i) Boulevard Manuel J Clouthier - A road intended ta join the two industrial zones of
Otay and Gato Bronco. (project Lead: City ofTijuana).
65. Managers Report - San Diego- Tijuana Binational Planning Program
Date: 1997
Author: City of San Diego
Preparation of Binational Program for the Area ofInfJuence of the San Ysidro 1íjuana Port of
Entry
Report: Managers Report to Land Use and Housing Committee of City of San Diego as part
of the Binational Planning Program '"
66. International Gateway of the Americas
Date: 1998
Author: LandGrant Development
Report: Private Sector Proposal for a major mixed-use commercial project in San Ysidro.
67. Virginia Avenue Border Crossing Feasibility Study
Date: 1996
Author: San Diego Association of Governments, P&D Consultants, Inc. and Linscott, Law
and Greenspan
Report: Technical Report No.3. Identification of Potential Transportation Improvements for
the Study Area. Feasibility study/alternative alignments & impacts. Final Report &
Executive Summary. Public Comments
68. Nueva Puerta Mexico
Resumen Ejecutivo
Evaluacion Urbana Del Proyecta De La Garita
Report (in Spanish): Puerta Mexico - The international Port of Entry Tijuana-San Y sidro
& the Properties between the Part of Entry and the canal of the Tijuana River.
46
The report deals with the project to improve the area developed and promoted by the
Economic Development Council ofTijuana (CD1) called New Mexica Port which was
proposed by the Municipality afTijuana: It evaluates the actions and works proposed in this
project in tenDS of:
a) The legal tools which are assigned to official organizations to implement the proposal
b) The effect of urban conditions in the zone of influence of the project in tenDS of the
absently to a genuüie redevelopment/re~italization project
- the above includes a review of current legal situation and the organizations, which
have the attributes to act in this matter
- a documentary analysis of the road system, land use and the need for investment
Infrastructure Issues
Road systems/pedestrian system
Land use
Public transit
Costs
69. Cross Border Concerns in the San Diego Region
Date: 1992
Report: The Need for New Border Crossings
70. Virginia Avenue Border Crossing Fe:lSibility Study
Date: 1998
Author: Saha Engineers
Prepared for. General Services AdministrationIPortfolio Management Division
Report: Feasibility Study for new P.O.E.
71. The Bridge - Baja California Regional Industrial Development Guide, 2nd Edition
Date: 1992
Author: San Diego Economic Development Corporation, San Diego Associatian of
Governments and assisted by the Secretaria de Desarrollo Economico Baja California
This Repart is a cooperative of the City of San Diego, Mayar's Office of Binational Affairs.
Report:ßcanomic Activity including employment, population. Union organization, salaries.
~ June 1992 - refers to surveys by Mungaray and Graizbord listing of Mexican Government,
47
industrial, labor, consultants and professional services, directions and organizations for
investors (also listing of "maquiladores" in Tijuana 1989) /,
Infrastructure Issues
Industrial Parks and Centers in Baja California
72. Who Crosses the Border: A View ofthe San Diego/Tijuana Metropolitan Region
Date: 1994
Author: San Diego Dialogue
Report: Report on Border c~verings and analysis of cross border trip purpose, destination
etc.
'"
73. The San Diego-Tijuana Economic Review
Date: 1996
Author: San Diego Dialogue, University of California, San Diego, EI Colegio de la Frontera
Norte
Report: Featuring Highlights from the Firn Year of Publication. A Project of the San Diegol
Tijuana Planning for Prosperity Fund. Synopsis (graphic) of employment, prices, sales, etc.
74. A View of the Border from Mexico
Date: 1976
Author: Fronteras
Report: Proceedings of a Conference, San Diego, California
Publication Number Two. Perspectives of socio-econoIlÙc development in the border region
75. San Diego/Tijuana: The International Border in Community Relations: Gateway or
Barrier?
Date: 1976
Author: Fronteras
Report: Proceedings of A Conference. Publication Number Three
48
" 76. Tijuana, Compromiso de TodoslPlan Municipal de Desarrollo
Date: 1996-98
Author: Ciudad de Tijuana
Report: Development Plan for Tijuana 1996-1998 (304 pages). All aspects including
economic information, plans and programs and city infrastructure.
Infrastnlcture Issues
Land use
Ownership
Road systems
Water/drainage
Communicatian and transportation
Gas and electtic power
Industrial Parks '..
Parks and open space
Cemeteries
Lighting
Solid v.'BSte collection
Environment and ecology
77. North American Trade Agreement
Date: 1992
Author: San Diega Economic Development Carporatian
Report:_Synopsis of North American Free Trade Agreement. Economic policy implications,
gaals & services provisions
Infrastnlcture Issues
Telecommunications
Bus and Trucking
Rail
Port
Note: na section on water supply, wastewater, treatment, and environmental cancerns
78. Desarrollo Del Aeropuerto
Date: 1991
49
.
.,
Author: Aeropuerto Internacional De Tijuana, B.c.
Subdireccion de Constuccion y Conservacion É~
I.
SCT- Aeropuenos y Servicios Amcilliares
Report: Airport Development, demand/capacity, passengers/goods.
Infrasmlcture Isslles
Spatial data, runways etc.
Demand/ capacity I operations
Proposed extension (current status unknown)
Work program 1991-1992
79. The U.S. - ~!eDcan Border Environment:
Date: 1999 -.
Author: Southwest Center for Environmental Rese:uch & Policy
Report: A Road Map To A Sustainable 2020. Report on Border Institute I Rio Rico, Arizona
Subieci Malter
Gro\\th and change...: a vision for the future
Pop ulati 0 nI eco nomyl en vironmen t
Infraslrllcture Issues - Commenrarv bill fr!w facts.
Emironment
Warer supply
Warer quality - surface and groundwarer
Air quality
Narural resources
80. Planning for Prosperity in the San DiegolBaja California Region
Date: 1993
Author: Report of the Binational Task Force on Economic Development and Transportation
Infrastructure. Sponsared by the Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce. Managed by
San Diego Dialogue
Report: Economic Development and Transportation Infrastructure
Economic needs and opportunities - Commentary conclusian and recommendations
Cross border transportation needs - commentary, conclusions and recommendations
50
81. San Diego-Tijuana International Border Area Planning Atl:1S
Date: 2000
Authors: Published by San Diego State University Press, Instirute for Regional Studies of
the Californias. Sponsored by SDSU, SANDAG, Implan, City of San Diego, City ofTijuana
Report:
Historical Background
Planning Area
Water and Sewage Infrastructure
Transportation
Population
Employment and Public Facilities
Slope, Fault Flood Hazards, Vegetation. and land Cover
Topography and Hydrology
Governance and Administrative Boundaries
The San Ysidro-Puerta Mexico POr! of Entry Area
82. Shared Space: Rethinking the U.S.-Mexico Border Environment
Date: 2000
Authors: edited by Larry Herzog. U.S.-Mexic:lD Studies, University of California, San
Diego
Report:
The Shared Boderlands
NAFTA Environmental Institutions and Sustainable Development
Transborder Networks for Environmental Management in SD-TJ
Tourism Development and the Politics of Northern Baja California LandsC:lpe
land Use and the Conservation of Natural Resaurces in the Tijuana River Basin
Place and Water Quality Politics in the Tijuana-San Diego Region
Wa1£.r Use and Sanitation Practices in Peri-Urban Are:1S of Tijuana: A Demand-Side
Perspective.
51
C', IB1
conomics Research Associates
MEMORANDUM REPORT
TO: Cheryl Dye
City ofChula Vista
FROM: Bill Anderson
Vice President
Economics Research Associates
DATE: May 23. 2001
RE; Il1Ierviell's wi/h S/akeholders
Economics Research Associates (ERA) conducted a series of interviews with individuals
that either (a) have offices and conduct business in Chula Vista; (b) are residents of Chula Vista;
or (c) deal with regional issues and therefore have a broad understanding of Chula Vista's
position relative to San Diego's regional economy,
A list of the persons interviewed is attached to the end of this memorandum, The City of
Chula Vista provided the list of people to interview, The list contains a broad spectrum of both
public and private leaders, It should be noted that two individuals did not respond to repeated
requests by telephone, and two other individuals indicated that they did not wish to participate in
the survey.
ERA conducted the interviews of individuals in person or by telephone without City staff
present so that ERA could solicit candid responses confidentially, This memorandum presents a
summary of the comments received, by selected topical categories. These comments are the
opinions of those that were interviewed, and are not necessarily the opinions of ERA or the City
ofChula Vista.
'-~
95451" Avenue Su;le 214 San 0;e90. CA 92101
519.544.'402 FAX 519.5H.I404 www econ<e, co~ u. " ..."..... w,," 0...." '00"
--- - -
SUMMARY OF COMMENTS
Reasonsfor Locating in C/zula Vista
Among those interviewed that have businesses located within Chula Vista, the reasons
cited for locating in Chula Vista include the following:
. The temperate weather.
. The proximity to Mexico.
. The "festive" atmosphere of the community.
. The business opportunities presented by a rapidly expanding population base.
. The large Hispanic community in the market, including wealthy Hispanics.
. The high number of dual-income families with children.
. The high incomes in EastLake.
. Opportunities in eastern Chula Vista.
. The large number of employed residents with medical insurance in eastern Chula
Vista.
. The large day-visitor market from the TijuanalBaja region.
How the Chula Vista Economy Has Changed
. Has evolved from an agricultural community, followed by service industries. The
transition was due to the high cost of water that diminished agriculture's
competitiveness. Small manufacturer's followed. Rohr was a major employer that
kept many small contractors in business. Recently, there has been a push for high
technology industries.
'.J
2
"\
. Chula Vista was heavily defense-oriented. The end of the Cold War and the
economic transformation in the early 1990s hit NASCO, Rohr, and Chula Vista hard.
Since then, Chula Vista tried to position itself to take advantage of groWth in areas
where they thought they had an advantage, like environmental technology, but Chula
Vista did not have as big of a concentration as first thought.
. Originally dominated by "mom & pop" small, independent businesses.
. People use to have decent jobs, but recently have seen a portion of the population left
out because of high rents and utility bills. The economic transition is leaving them
behind.
. New large,scale residential developments in East Chula Vista.
. New attractions such as the Coors Amphitheater and Olympic Training Center.
. The development of large business districts in the region {such as National City's
"Mile of Cars").
. The emergence of two Chula Vistas - the older, sole proprietor dominated city west
of the 805 to the Harbor area, and the new Chula Vista east of 805.
. Chula Vista is heading toward a more upscale retail and service oriented economy
because of increased incomes among the population in eastern Chula Vista - not
there yet, but getting there.
. Downtown remains the same; the Bayfront has not yet emerged, but is on the verge.
. Dynamic growth moving into South County.
. One of the best economic values in the region in terms of housing costs for the
quality obtained.
. Growing industrial, hi-tech, and bio-tech sectors in the region, driven by defense
research.
. Chula Vista's market sphere is growing.
3
. Quality schools and a strong education community. Many leaders come from
education.
. Sense of pride and innovation in the educational system.
. New master-planned housing developments.
. Chula Vista has done a good job of planning.
. New economic opportunities, particularly for small business.
. EastLake and the addition of the eastern corridor with new housing.
. A large percentage of people in Chula Vista, particularly in the eastern corridor,
commute north to work.
San DiegoíTijllana Region's Advantage in the World Economy
. Proximity to Mexico.
. Talented labor force in Mexico.
. A port for international trade.
. Lower housing and land costs than other major metropolitan centers.
. Good climate.
. Good quality living.
. Large enough to be a metropolis.
. San DiegofBaja/lmperial County combined is ninth largest metropolitan area in the
U.S.
. Infrastructure for international trade.
. A built-in tourism market with the proximity of large cities in two different countries.
i
'V . Huge consumer market and inexpensive labor in Tijuana.
4
OJ
. Access to low-cost labor and assembly line fonTI of production in Tijuana, combined
with design resources in San Diego, and access to the U.S. market.
. Twin operations that are complementary.
. Part of a major economic region from Ensenada to Los Angeles. Overflow economic
opportunities given the region's airport and harbor facilities on both sides of the
border.
. San Diego's education institutions.
. Diversified regional economy.
. Mexico is on the verge of a serious leap forward.
Chula Vista's Competitive Advantage in Region
. Less expensive housing compared to other areas of the county.
. Room for both employment and housing within the same area.
. One of the few places with a significant economic development strategy and
willingness to stick to it.
. Political will.
. Chula Vista's visibility from [-805 and [-5 - an audience of thousands.
. Good labor force.
. Southwestern College is very business oriented.
. Mexicans living in Chula Vista.
. Land availability.
. An abundant supply of new housing compared ta other areas of the county.
'-
5
. Proximity to the ocean.
. A harbor area with development potential.
. Less expensive commercial property.
. Helpful and accommodating city government.
. Attractive to wealt~y Mexican families who invest in homes and businesses in Chula
Vista.
. A good quality oflife.
. A skilled and bilingual labor base.
. A family-oriented lifestyle.
. Proximity to the U.S./Mexico border.
. Proximity to Downtown San Diego.
. Chula Vista is a "liberal" community with a strong vision.
. A lot of maquiladora related businesses in South County, especially in Otay Mesa,
but many prefer to be closer to quality housing and amenities that Chula Vista can
provide
. Affordable housing, better freeway system, and proximity to the central region.
. History of being well planned.
. Vacant land remaining in large ownerships, which is unusual and an advantage for
financing and planning.
. Light traffic southbound on 805 and 5 during the morning commutes.
. Chula Vista's weather is better than the weather anywhere else in the county. Coastal
breezes cool Chula Vista without fonning a marine layer. Otay Ranch is only 7 miles
from the ocean; can feel the ocean there.
',,-.I
6
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Disadvantages
0 Chula Vista's image perception that dates back to its early history as a lower-income
community.
0 The lack of larger businesses in the area which are necessary to fonn a critical mass
of commercial business.
0 The lack of retail and restaurants supporting major expansion of residential areas.
. The need to clean up and improve the attractiveness of certain industrial areas near
the water/harbor areas.
0 The lack of available land zoried for industrial use.
0 Industrial development in South Bay has had an image problem and lacks
infrastructure.
0 Very few 5-10 acre sites, only three that are south afI-8; a 4-acre site is available on
Main Street, but it is hard to bring it to market.
0 Lacking improved industrial sites regionally. It takes three years to get raw land to
market in Chula Vista or Otay, plus six months to get an entitled project approved for
development - too long for most end users.
0 Competition from North County and Temecula.
0 Many company executives and technology employees live and work in 1-15 corridar.
0 The EastLake industrial park is a corporate location that is hurt by the 8-mile cuI-de-
sac that Telegraph Avenue has become.
0 Perception that Chula Vista is far away, even though it is not that far.
0 A regional near-tenn disadvantage is the energy crisis, potential water shortages, and
housing costs.
; '.'
7
. Image problem with the border area based on reality and perception about the number
of lower income resi~ents.
. Racial stereotypes.
. Physically unattractive in the border zone.
Where is Chula Vista's Ecol}omy Heading?
. Growing resident market.
. Potential to capture tourist market between San Diego and Mexico.
. Depends on what happens with utilities under the current energy crisis; if resolved,
could grow and prosper; if not, could collapse as businesses relocate.
. Economic growth.
. More fluid border as adaptable and standard telecommunications technology
becomes available.
. More of an international region.
. By necessity, things will have to go to South County. Market share will grow to 2.5
times historical rate do to lack of land regionally.
Potential Economic Opportunities for Chula Vista
. Urban redevelopment efforts in the western portion of Chula Vista near the 1-5
freeway. Since these blighted areas are ITequently a visitor's first glimpse of Chula
Vista, improving these areas may not only change this impression but also the
attraction of higher quality retail businesses that could intercept visitors traveling to
and from the border and San Diego areas.
. The waterfront, specifically the marina and power plant areas, present a substantial
opportunity. Suggestions include attracting higher quality hotels and restaurants to
these areas.
\.~)
8
. While nearly all respondents acknowledged the competence of City officials, certain
branches of city goyernment and services are said to be very slow ta respond to
requests and have little interaction with other city departments. This can discourage
businesses ITom opening offices in Chula Vista. It was therefore suggested that the
process be streamlined and communication improved between the various branches
of City government.
. Bidding for amate~r sporting events and tying-in with the Olympic training facility
was suggested as a good way to promote the City and generate economic impact.
0 Planned developments such as the Gateway Center project downtown could have a
positive impact on the City. similar to what Horton Plaza did for downtown San
Diego and the Gas Lamp District. Should the project not be a success, however, the
City would have to adopt a more pro-business strategy.
-
Impediments
0 Traffic and congestion as the resident base continues to grow.
. The negative perception among outsiders that Chula Vista is a lower-middle class,
border town.
. The first impressions ofChula Vista near 1-5.
0 Cangested east-to-west travel routes to get to the ¡¡-eeways.
0 Rising electricity costs that could negate lower housing costs.
. Cost and supply of water.
. Lack of quality hotels.
0 Envirorunental and bureaucratic rules.
0 State envirorunentallaws.
. Disregard at the Federal level to make the border more open.
9
(7)
. Ignorance on the Federal level about how interdependent San Diego and Tijuana are
economically.
. Timely legal reviews.
. Parochial view of economic development - focuses more on mitigating impacts than
promoting economic development - making sure that there is zero risk for the City at
any cost to the private sector.
. Inadequate attention from State officials, who favor Los Angeles and the Bay Area.
. Air traffic capacity at Lindbergh Field.
. Changes in NAFT A laws that are requiring more domestic content, discouraging
Japanese companies from locating in the region.
. The lack of Spanish-language advertising and signage.
. Growth outpacing the adequate provision of infrastructure.
. Lack of nationally renowned retailers, particularly in western Chula Vista
. Except for Otay Mesa, South Bay has islands or pockets of business park land and
lacks large contiguous space; consequently, very little space is built in South Bay,
except for Otay Mesa, due to the lack of available land.
. Currently land is priced for the end user. not the spec builder, but half of the end
users are looking for spec space.
. Development fees east of the 805 are among the highest in the county.
. Lack of proximity to major higher educational facilities.
. NIMBYs ("Not In My Back Yard").
~
10
Recommended Policies and Actions for the City
. Investment in amenities (street lights, landscaping) in all of the existing commercial
districts.
. Encourage more Class A office space in Downtown.
. More quality hotels in Downtown and the marina area.
.
. New roads to accommodate resident grawth.
. Complete SR125.
. Continue to attract world-class events.
. Remove inconsistent development regulations among Chula Vista, the City of San
Diego, and the County of San Diego in Olay Mesa.
-- . Actively participate in a new Regional Government.
. Cross-train with non-profit organizations to gain additional perspective.
. Simplify the building permit process. The City should provide guidelines on how the
City wants things built and approval should be automatic if the development is within
the guidelines.
. Don't go overboard with landscape requirements to make industrial pad costs
competitive.
. Need to replicate what jurisdictians in North County provide - quality living
environment and a research university.
. Be patient - do not give up land for short-term commercial opportunities. Land bank
if necessary.
. Invest in the highest quality primary schools.
. State and local fiscal reform.
. Demand the best quality throughout the city, but especially at the Bayfront.
II
. Plan for a dense urban hub at Otay Ranch and do not let the Eastern Urban Center
develop prematurely,
. Demand good design Downtown. The built environment is exceedingly important
for place-making to make downtown and the waterfront work.
. Build apartments and low-income housing for people.
. Raise the height limit in the Downtown core area; need condominium zoning and
more affordable housing there. Infrastructure costs will be lower per unit than
elsewhere in Chula Vista. Higher density will increase property tax revenue and
make Third Avenue a viable commercial district.
. Concentrate more on Mexico.
. Make staff at the development counter better informed and helpful. People want
help, not an argument. Need better accountability among staff. Service is getting
better, but needs improvement.
. Reform building codes that have contradictions. It's too easy for the Building
Department to say "no."
. Need new paradigm for thinking about the City's future development. Build cluster
homes with unique designs, but in higher density communities. Chula Vista does not
have the land to build at low density anymore.
. Politicians should lead and teach constituents.
Recommended Policies and Actionsfor the Private Sector
. Agree to work with the City to help coordinate the private sector.
. Become more involved with the community.
. Chamber has to use technology, provide more services, and get more sophisticated as
the city grows.
12
J
. Participate in public/private partnerships in redevelopment areas, such as the
waterfront and down.town.
. Invest in attractive landscaping.
. Organize more private sector lobbying for more State and Federal funds for the area.
. A strong business leader with government ties.
.
. Create more Spanish signage and target the Hispanic community.
. Concentrate more on Mexico.
. Build more starter homes.
. New communities in Otay Ranch need to match the quality level offered at new
communities in North County and the 1-15 corridor.
General Comments By Category
Economic Prosperity
. Build quality hotels, especially near the bayfront, the Olympic Training Center and
Soak City
. Build more upscale retail.
. Improve the waterfront and downtown to attract more business (possible models
include Seapart Village, Pine Street in Long Beach, and the San Antonio RiverWalk).
. Support a new regional airport to increase air traffic and accessibility to the San
Diego region.
. Contain development, the "Los Angelization of San Diego" is occurring.
. A regional retail center in the Eastern Urban Center is not a good location for the
region. The majar source of demand will be the rich from Tijuana, not the residents
ofOtay Ranch.
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. Otay Mesa will become more like Miramar than Sorrento.
Economic Diversity
. Attract mOre businesses to Chula Vista.
. Focus on small businesses - an estimated 80-90 percent of jobs are still generated by
smaller firms that will hopefully change if the region makes an effort to attract more
business.
. Make more efforts to target the Hispanic community.
. South County is industrial, with very little R&D, and a little office in the city core
and waterfront. Not a dynamic R&D market.
. The technology sector will need some university presence in South Bay to move
south.
. A technology park of 1,000 acreS is too large, but nodes of200 acres are appropriate
and Chula Vista is a good location.
. Chula Vista needs more executive housing to attract technology firms.
. Basic industries are untapped and have much potential.
. Tourism provides a lot of pluses, infuses dollars and people go home, but the jobs are
low paying.
. Concerned about a regional shopping center on the waterfront. Need a hotel there,
not another center. The waterfront should be for recreation.
. Third Avenue is old, small, and non-descript.
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Social Equity
. Promote the region's and Chula Vista's heterogeneity.
. Improve the dividing line between the "old" and "new" Chula Vista by creating a
business district in old Chula Vista.
. Provide more bi-lingual services.
Affordable Worker Housing
. Promote Chula Vista's broad range of affordable housing.
. Provide more affordable housing in Eastern Chula Vista.
Education and Job Training
. Promote Chula Vista's excellent schoal district.
. Stress math, science and foreign language at the K-12 level to prepare students to
enter the San Diego regional economy.
. Sponsor career fairs for K-12 students to encourage them to advance their
educational level.
. Provide more job skills training programs such as those used in the hi-tech sector.
Infrastructure and Transportation
. Develop new roads to accommodate the growing resident base.
. Transportation is perhaps the mast critical issue, since east-to-west arteries like L and
J Streets can become virtually gridlocked during rush hour.
. Another airport is essential, as are more sewers and roads.
: '0.-/
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(]
. 905 and 125 will open up an area that is relatively proximate to central San Diego
even more proximat,:.
. SRI25 will be a big deal for Otay Mesa.
. Cargo airport at Brownfield would have been great and a huge benefit.
. Fundamental local infrastructure is good, but links to regional facilities are not great;
however, no worse"than other jurisdictions.
. Ensure adequate water supply.
Business DeveIo1)ment
. Create business districts to revamp the older parts of town.
. Eliminate bureaucratic difficulties.
CitY Services
. Promote excellent services.
City Project Approval Processes
. Some minor signage issues, but otherwise fine processes.
. Approval process is too slow.
.M.llim
. Promote for cross-border businesses, but overcome the stigma the border has among
businesses that are not related to border trade.
. Push for reduction in the Federal restrictions that make it difficult for Mexican
nationals to buy a home or start businesses in the U.S.
16
. Overcome "Chula-juana" image.
. The region's greatest asset; keep linking both sides of the border.
. Open the border.
Oualitv ofUfe .
. Provide more entertainment options.
. Promote excellent quality of life - good climate, many attractions, and the
geographic location.
. South County residents like South County.
ililli
. Promote that Chula Vista is one of the few areas of San Diego County that still has
physical space for expansion and growth.
. Three different worlds along SRl25 - I) Otay Mesa is young, aggressive,
entrepreneurial; 2) Chula Vista is older, many nice, retired military, many with jobs,
quieter group; 3) Bonita is more artsy and equestrian, ranchers, opposed to growth.
Economic Challenges Facing Chula Vista Over the Next:
~
. Traffic, utilities, and energy.
. How to attract more businesses and retailers.
. Establishing and building the business base.
. Water.
"-
17
~
. Traffic.
. Establishing and building the business base.
. Infrastructure to the border, as well as more sewers, roads, and airports.
. New infrastructure.development.
. Eastern Chula Vista needs a heart.
. Similar to Orange County - nice restaurants, nice shops, a lot of jobs.
~
. Traffic.
. Establishing and building the business base.
. Lack of available land left for residential and commercial growth.
. New infrastructure development.
. 8 out of 10 workers in the future will be minorities - need to match skills with job
opportunities.
. Higher density housing near transit centers.
Economic Opportunities That Chula Vista Should Not Miss
. Leverage the Gateway project to attract higher quality retail businesses in western
Chula Vista.
. Chula Vista has established itself as a growing and leading residential community in
San Diego County, and should do the same for the business community.
. Attract more businesses and jobs to Chula Vista for local residents to help alleviate
regional traffic.
'-
18
",
I
. Target companies in San Diego that are relocating or opening offices in Mission
Valley and Sorrento Valley where land prices are much higher than in Chula Vista.
. Expand Chula Vista's economic and business base by promoting the city's strategic
location between two major freeways, land available for expansion, and efficient and
effective local government.
. Build up the marina area with hotels and commercial space to help improve Chula
Vista's regional image.
. Build upon Chula Vista's and Baja's interdependence, and promote this
interdependence to local and federal leaders.
. Make business-park land available at a competitive price, and development will
follow.
. Taubman's proposal for the Chula Vista waterfront will provide a huge, new look,
and entryway that will improve the city's image.
. SRl25 will enhance Chula Vista's opportunities.
. Industrial development on Otay Valley road at the Bird Ranch site, similar to Otay's
basic industrial.
. Technology firms in bayfront locations.
. Near term opportunity is to attract firms that are being pushed out of Kearny Mesa
because of rising rents and land prices.
. Focus on one of the regional industry clusters and technologies that the Sorrento area
does not target.
. Links to Tijuana's airport and Ensenada's harbor facilities.
. A ZOO-acre technology park.
. Regional planning.
. Without a university, leverage UCSD or another university by starting out as a
specialized branch location to attract an industry cluster.
19
. Move-up market for South County residents.
. Attracting eastern Chula Vista residents to the good urban setting in Downtown, with
the proper mix of retail uses and physical environment. Eastern Chula Vista
commercial centers do not have. the character that Downtown and the Bayfront
provide.
. Leverage the Olympic Training Center, especially with the development of SR125
and Olympic Parkway, for corporate meeting centers, special events, youth camps,
and other developments.
. Cooperate with Mexico to develop tourism.
. Develop a destination-hotel near the Olympic Training Center.
. Water taxis to Downtown San Diego and Coronado.
. Leverage Otay Mesa's tremendous potential.
Summary
One of Chula Vista's primary advantages is its location close to the border. This is
particularly important for retail and service-oriented business sectors. The interdependence
between Baja businesses and/or visitors who patronize these establishments is significant. Many
respondents believe that the City of Chula Vista should pay even closer attention to this market.
With regard to affordable housing and quality of life, several respondents noted that the
recent over-saturation of commercial and residential real estate in North County is presently
driving many residents of the San Diego County region to the South Bay area. At present, the
South Bay is considered the "up and coming" area in San Diego County region, and migration
has been moving south toward eastern Chula Vista. Certain new housing projects in this portion
of the city are among the fastest selling new housing developments in San Diego County.
Several respondents identified the availability of all levels of labor in Chula Vista as a
unique advantage. However, at least one contributor felt that the establishment of a University of
20
'1
California, California State University or similar academic research center (e.g. UC Aerospace
Center) would be necessary to draw the high-tech businesses the City ofChula Vista desires.
Despite Chula Vista's growing prosperity and popularity, many felt it remains primarily a
residential bedroom community for residents working in the San Diego region. While the supply
of new, affordable housing developments are beginning to attract population to the South Bay
area, the commercial and retail base has not grown at the same rate.
.
Perhaps the two biggest repeated concerns mentioned were (a) Chula Vista's slightly
negative image perception; and (b) the growing amount of traffic congestion as the resident base
in eastern Chula Vista continues to expand.
While it was acknowledged that Chula Vista is relatively safe and clean, respondents
indicated that there is still a perception that Chula Vista might have higher crime, lower incomes,
and a poorer school district than other areas of the county. This image, many believe, stems
'"', from:
. Chula Vista and National City's prior reputation as low-income housing communities
for residents working in the San Diego area; and
. The fact that retail developments in the City are characterized more by outdated strip
malls and older, sole proprietor businesses that close after regular business hours.
. There is also a perceived association with Tijuana and barder area problems, such as
drug trafficking though many respandents believe that the City's proximity to the
border has been a crucial growth driver, particularly following the passage of
NAFTA.
The fact that Chula Vista is a bifurcated City with a lower-income western side and
higher income residential communities in the eastern portion of the City is also an issue.
Vehicles passing along the 1-5, which is a more heavily traveled route than the 1-805, see the
industrial uses and poorly maintained housing surrounding the freeway exits. This is often their
first image of Chula Vista.
With regard to traffic, many commented that the City of Chula Vista has pursued
development of its residential base. As a result, the local demographics of the City is
-'
21
diversifying. However, the major emphasis on residential expansion seems to create the
perception that Chula Vista is positioning itself more as a bedroom community rather than a
commercial center. While Chula Vista is now a good place to live, it not necessarily a commercial
center. Unless the City begins to attract more businesses to the area, one of the anticipated future
problems is the increasing traffic that is already becoming a problem for commuters living in the
area.
Some contributors felt íhat that the City ofChula Vista can not finance citywide facilities,
especially those in western Chula Vista, by increasing the tax burden in the more affluent east.
Some felt that it will be a while before the high-tech and bio-tech industries start to look
at South Bay. Firms in these industries can afford to pay higher costs for land and amenities in
North County and the Sorrento Mesa area. A few people interviewed believe that urisdictions
have made it difficult for business park developers to make projects feasible. If cities force
developers to hold on to the land too long for the "choice" end user, many properties just sit.
All respondents acknowledged the commercial and economic development potential of
Chula Vista, though the development of its resident base appears to be its strongest position at
present. Most respondents acknowledged that the real challenge for Chula Vista in forthcoming
years lies in expanding and growing its economic and business base. The City is strategically
located off of two major freeways and is one of the few areas in, San Diego with available land for
development. Those who have lived in the San Diego region for more than ten years noted the
major changes that Chula Vista has undergone to reposition itself as a growing and increasingly
prosperous community. As a result, the overall outlook for the future development of the city is
positive.
22
IDI
"':) ~conomics Research Associates
MEMORANDUM REPORT
TO: Cheryl Dye
City of Chula ,(ista
FROM Bill Anderson
Vice President
Economics Research Associates
DATE July 9, 2001
RE: Interviews with Businesses that Chose Not to Locate in Chula Vista
Survey Of Companies That Left or Chose Not To Locate in Chula Vista
Economics Research Associates (ERA) surveyed selected companies that either left
Chula Vista or considered locating there and decided against it. City of Chula staff provided the
list of finns. ERA interviewed representatives of each [InTI by telephone. City staff did not
participate in the interviews so that ERA could elicit candid comments confidentially. The list of
companies that were interviewed includes the following:
. IDEC Phannaceuticals Corporatian
. Northrop Grumman Corporation
. Bee International
. National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics
. Sunrise Medical Corporation
. Sheraton Hotels
. McMahon Steel Corporation (fonnerly C & B Steel)
-~
96e 5th Avenue Su;te 21e Son O;eoo. CA 92101
6,O.See.'e02 FAX 619.See.'eOe www.econ'e.com u. " .""'m' w"" 0';.... 'on..
Lo. Ang.'" San '<and"o San D'.g. c"'<ag. Da".. W.."'n.'.n DC N.w Yo,' Lond.n
0
Respondents were asked about their reasons for not locating in Chula Vista, impressions
of San Diegorrijuana's position. in the international economy and Chula Vista's position within
the regional economy, and opinions about how Chula Vista could improve its business
environment. The overall themes that were expressed are highlighted below, followed by specific
comments and issues that were raised during the interviews.
Summary of Comments .
Most of the respondents indicated that their decision to not locate in Chula Vista was the
result of factors that policy makers could not control. These include the need to be in a certain
congressional district, geography in the national context, availability of commercial real estate,
commuting patterns, and the ability to generate the revenues needed to sustain their business. A
number of recurring comments arose during the interviews, as follows:
. The primary advantages listed for Chula Vista included less expensive housing
compared to other areas of the county, proximity to the ocean, less expensive
commercial property, helpful and accommodating city government, good quality of
life, good labor base, and family oriented lifestyle.
. The primary disadvantages listed for Chula Vista included image perception, lack of
retail and restaurants supporting major expansion of residential areas, need to clean
up certain industrial areas near the water, commuting patterns of executives and
employees from the 1-15 corridor, and lack of available land zoned for industrial use.
. Chula Vista has to overcome a slightly negative image perception. While it was
acknowledged that Chula Vista is relatively safe and clean, respondents indicated that
there is a perception that Chula Vista might have higher crime, lower incomes, or be
less safe than other areas of the county. There is also a perceived association with
Tijuana and border area problems, and even lingering images left by the McDonalds
shooting in San Ysidro in the early 1980s.
. All respondents were very impressed with the professionalism of the City staff during
the process of detennining where to locate. The City was said to be very helpful,
accommodating, responsive, creative and professional. Many indicated that Chula
<-' Vista was the first to respond to their inquiries and was always willing to work to try
2
to accommodate their needs. Economic incentive packages were also said to be
impressive. This ",as in contrast to many cities that were far less cooperative.
Again, location decisions were often made for reasons that the City could not have
changed.
. Several believe that if the City continues it's proactive approach, it will succeed in
drawing business to Chula Vista.
.
. Traffic from the freeway into Chula Vista was listed as a problem that was making
business activity in the city difficult. Commute patterns and the locations of existing
highly paid employees' homes in the northern areas of the City of San Diego and the
county also discouraged finns from locating in the South County area.
. Several respondents cited lower rents and greater land or commercial space
availability in Otay Mesa as major reasons they located there.
. Many noticed that there seems to be a heavy emphasis on residential development.
Major residential expansion seems to create the perception that Chula Vista is
positioning itself more as a bedroom community rather than a commercial center.
. Chula Vista was seen as a growing place with a lot of potential. However, some
indicated that it was not yet developed to levels needed for their business to generate
the revenues required to build facilities.
Overview of Specific Comments
. One company was able to find the space they needed in an existing building in
another community in the North County, 1-15 corridor. They were not able to wait
for a new building to be built in Chula Vista.
. The waterfront was seen as a good feature, especially if it is cleaned up. Areas that
were mentioned that are in need of attention were the marina area and the power
plant area.
. There are no parcels that have zoning for heavy industry. This precludes this type of
business from locating or expanding in Chula Vista.
'~.
3
. The new residential areas are very nice, but they need more commercial support,
especially restaurants.
. There needs to be a marketing effort to counter the perception that Chula Vista is
troubled or less desirable. This applies primarily to the older areas of the city.
. The promotion of residential development is seen as positive, but there was some
concern that it is pushing out industry. The image that was expressed was that Chula
Vista is a place to live, not necessarily a commercial center.
. It was perceived that Chula Vista is attracting small players. Commercial
development is mostly suburban style, with most structures single-story or low-rise.
The respondent was not aware of any major companies or well-known brands coming
into Chula Vista.
. Bidding for amateur sporting events and tying-in with the Olympic training facility
would be a good way to promote the City and generate economic impact.
. Only one of the interviewed companies occupied office space in Chula Vista because
of its proximity to its manufacturing facility in Tijuana.
4
Economics Research Associates
DRAFT
CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS
Prepared for
The City of Chula Vista,
Submitted by
Economics Research Associates
November 2, 2001
ERA Project No. 13879
964 5th A'enue Su;te 214
S,nD,ego. CA 92101 ".,.."",...dw',"O"w,'on.'
6195441402 FAX 619544 1404 www e",' oom/e',,!
Lo. Ange!e, San "an,;Ho San D;ego
Ch'--go Dalla, Wa,h;ng,on DC London
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF EXHIBITS............................................................................................................................................................1
GENERAL LIMITING CONDITIONS................................................................................."""""""""""""""""""""" VI
INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................................................1
I. THE SAN DIEGO REGIONAL ECONOMY .............................................................................................................2
REGIONAL GROWTH INDUSTRIES ..........................................................................................................................................3
WAGES BY INDUSTRY AND OCCUPATION ..............................................................................................................................5
INTERNATIONAL TRADE ........................................................................................................................................................6
NAFTA...............................................................................................................................................................................11
THE MAQUILADORA INDUSTRY ...........................................................................................................................................12
REGIONAL STRATEGY - EMPLOYMENT CLUSTERS...............................................................................................................14
II. CHULA VISTA IN THE SAN DIEGO REGIONAL CONTEXT ...........................................................................18
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS .........................................................................................................................................18
EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS .......................................................................................................................................31
VISITOR MARKET ................................................................................................................................................................39
LAND USE ...........................................................................................................................................................................41
REAL ESTATE VALUES ........................................................................................................................................................49
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT AREAS......................................................................................................................................55
SALES TAX REVENUES TRENDS...........................................................................................................................................63
FISCAL INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................................................69
CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM.....................................................................................................................................69
COST OF DOING BUSINESS IN CHULA VISTA........................................................................................................................74
REGIONAL PROJECTS THAT MAY AFFECT CHULA VISTA ....................................................................................................80
III. APPENDIX..........................................................................................""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" A-I
TABLE OF EXHIBITS
EXHIBIT 1-1- SAN DIEGO COUNTY AVERAGE WAGES BY OCCUPATION .......................................................7
EXHIBIT 1-2- SAN DIEGO COUNTY AVERAGE WAGES BY INDUSTRY..............................................................8
EXHIBIT 1-3 - SAN DIEGO COUNTY EXPORTS...........................................................................................................9
EXHIBIT 1-4 - DISTRIBUTION OF EXPORT PRODUCTS...........................................................................................9
EXHIBIT 1-5 - GENERAL VALUE OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY IMPORTS FROM ALL COUNTRIES.................IO
EXHIBIT 1-6 -SAN DIEGO COUNTY IMPORTS...........................................................................................................10
EXHIBIT 1-7 - CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MAQUILADORA INDUSTRY IN TIJUANA....................................I3
EXHIBIT 1-8 -SAN DIEGO REGION CLUSTER EMPLOYMENT, ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS..................I5
EXHIBIT 1-9 - PERCENT OF CLUSTER EMPLOYMENT AND PERCENT OF WORKING-AGE POPULATION
IN SELECTED AREAS .......................................................................................................................................................17
MAP 1- CHULA VISTA POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, 1995.................................................................................19
MAP 2 - CHULA VISTA POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, 2020.................................................................................20
EXHIBIT 11-1- CHULA VISTA POPULATION AND NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, ESTIMATES AND
FORECASTS.........................................................................................................................................................................21
EXHIBIT 11-2 - HOUSEHOLD GROWTH IN CHULA VISTA COMPARED WITH THE SAN DIEGO REGION
AND THE NA TION..............................................................................................................................................................21
EXHIBIT 11-3 - ETHNIC COMPOSITION: CHULA VISTA, SAN DIEGO REGION, NATION .............................23
EXHIBIT 11-4 -ETHNIC COMPOSITION, CHULA VISTA, ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS ..............................24
EXHIBIT 11-5 - PERCENT OF POPULATION BY WORKFORCE AGE GROUP, CHULA VISTA, ESTIMATES
AND FORECASTS...............................................................................................................................................................24
EXHIBIT 11-6 - EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: CHULA VISTA, THE SAN DIEGO REGION, NATION........26
MAP 3 - MEDIAN INCOME, CHULA VISTA, 1995.......................................................................................................28
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS "
EXHIBIT 11-7 - MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME, ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS...........................................29
EXHIBIT 11-8 - INCOME DISTRIBUTION, CHULA VISTA AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION, 2000 ..................30
EXHIBIT 11-9 - INCOME DISTRIBUTION, CHULA VISTA, ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS............................30
EXHIBIT 11-10 - EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION, SAN DIEGO REGION, ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS..
................................................................................................................................................................................................32
EXHIBIT 11-11 - EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION, CHULA VISTA, ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS .........32
EXHIBIT 11-12 - CHULA VISTA EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF SAN DIEGO REGIONAL
EMPLOYMENT ...................................................................................................................................................................34
EXHIBIT 11-13 - EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, CHULA VISTA, ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS................34
EXHIBIT 11-14 - CHULA VISTA FIRMS BY SIZE ........................................................................................................36
EXHIBIT II-IS - CHULA VISTA EMPLOYMENT BY FIRM SIZE ............................................................................36
EXHIBIT 11-16 - DISTRIBUTION OF CHULA VISTA EMPLOYMENT BY CLUSTER .........................................37
EXHIBIT 11-17 - CHULA VISTA CLUSTER EMPLOYMENT AS A PROPORTION OF REGIONAL CLUSTER
EMPLOYMENT...................................................................................................................................................................37
EXHIBIT 11-18 - OVERNIGHT VISITOR MARKET, SAN DIEGO COUNTY ..........................................................40
EXHIBIT 11-19 - LAND USE IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION, CHULA VISTA AND SELECTED
JURISDICTIONS, 1995 .......................................................................................................................................................42
EXHIBIT 11-20 - PROPORTIONAL LAND USE IN CHULA VISTA AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION................42
EXHIBIT n-21 - LAND USE IN SELECTED JURISDICTIONS AS A PROPORTION OF REGIONAL LAND USE
...............................................................................................................................................,................................................42
EXHIBIT 11-22 - EMPLOYMENT LANDS INVENTORY IN CHULA VISTA AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION...
................................................................................................................................................................................................43
EXHIBIT 11-23 - EMPLOYMENT LANDS INVENTORY IN CHULA VISTA AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION...
................................................................................................................................................................................................43
EXHIBIT 11-24-IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE LAND IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES......................................43
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS III
EXHIBIT 11-25 - INDUSTRIAL SPACE INVENTORY, SOUTH BAY AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION .............45
EXHIBIT 11-26 -OFFICE SPACE INVENTORY, SOUTH BAY AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION ........................46
EXHIBIT 11-27 -OFFICE ABSORPTION VS. VACANCY, SOUTH BAY AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION ........46
EXHIBIT 11-28 - OFFICE RENT TRENDS, SOUTH BAY AND THE SAN DIEGO REGION..................................47
EXHIBIT 11-29 - RETAIL RENT TRENDS......................................................................................................................48
EXHIBIT 11-30 - RETAIL RENT TRENDS COMPARED .............................................................................................48
EXHIBIT 11-31 - NEW CONSTRUCTION, NUMBER OF PERMITS..........................................................................50
EXHIBIT 11-32 - NEW CONSTRUCTION, VALUATION .............................................................................................50
EXHIBIT 11-33 - ASSESSED V ALUA TION, SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SELECTED JURISDICTIONS, 1990
AND 2000...............................................................................................................................................................................51
EXHIBIT 11-34 - ASSESSED VALUATION PER HOUSEHOLD, SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SELECTED
JURISDICTIONS, 1990 AND 2000.....................................................................................................................................51
EXHIBIT 11-35A -DISTRIBUTION OF ASSESSED VALUATION BY CATEGORY IN SELECTED
JURISDICTIONS, 1990 .......................................................................................................................................................53
EXHIBIT 11-35B - DISTRIBUTION OF ASSESSED VALUATION BY CATEGORY IN SELECTED
JURISDICTIONS, 2000 .......................................................................................................................................................54
EXHIBIT 11-36 - INDUSTRIAL LAND SALES, CHULA VISTA..................................................................................56
EXHIBIT 11-37 - INDUSTRIAL BUILDING SALES, CHULA VISTA .........................................................................56
EXHIBIT 11-38 - COMMERCIAL LAND SALES, CHULA VISTA..............................................................................57
EXHIBIT 11-39 - COMMERCIAL PROPERTY, CHULA VISTA .................................................................................57
MAP 4 - REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT AREAS ..........................................................................................................58
EXHIBIT 11-40 - TAXABLE SALES TRENDS, CHULA VISTA...................................................................................64
EXHIBIT 11-41- PER CAPITA RETAIL SALES, CHULA VISTA, 1990 AND 1999..................................................65
EXHIBIT 11-42 - QUARTERLY PROJECT AREA SALES TAX REVENUE BY CATEGORY ...............................66
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS IV
EXHIBIT 11-43 - DISTRIBUTION OF REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT AREA SALES TAX REVENUE BY
CATEGORY, 1ST QUARTER, 2001....................................................................................................................................67
EXHIBIT 11-44 - GENERAL FUND SOURCES AND USES BY CATEGORY, FY 1990-1991..................................70
EXHIBIT 11-45 -TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX REVENUE.................................................................................... 71
EXHIBIT 11-46 - CITY OF CHULA VISTA REDEVELOPMENT AGENCY GROSS TAX INCREMENT
FINANCING ............................................................................................................."""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 72
EXHIBIT 11-47 - DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS TAX INCREMENT FINANCING, 2001...........................................72
EXHIBIT 11-48 - CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM, SOURCES AND USES.................................................73
EXHIBIT 11-49 - COST OF DOING BUSINESS COMPARISON..................................................................................76
EXHIBIT II-50 - COMPARISON OF OTHER TAXES ........................................:.........................................................76
EXHIBIT 11-51-COMPARISON OF PLANNING ..FEES............................................................................................. 77
EXHIBIT 11-52-COMPARISON OF DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEES....................................................................78
EXHIBIT A-I - SHIFT SHARE ANAL YSIS.................................................................................................................. A-I
EXHIBIT A-2 -LOCATION OF CHULA VISTA FIRMS BY SECTOR AND FIRM SIZE................................... A-22
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS V
~ENERAL LIMITING CONDITIONS
Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this study reflect the most accurate and
timely infonnation possible, and they are believed to be reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions
and other infonnation reviewed and evaluated by Economics Research Associates from its consultations with the
client and the client's representatives and within its general knowledge of the industry. No responsibility is
assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, the client's agent and representatives or any other data source
used in preparing or presenting this study.
This report is based on infonnation that was current as of November 2001 or as noted in the report, and
Economics Research Associates has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date.
No warranty or representation is made by Economics Research Associates that any of the projected values or
results contained in this study will actually be achieved.
Possession of this study does not carry with it the right of publication thereof or to use the nalJ1e of "Economics
Research Associates" in any manner without first obtaining the prior written consent of Economics Research
Associates. No abstracting, excerpting or summarization of this study may be made without first obtaining the
prior written consent of Economics Research Associates. This report is not to be used in conjunction with any
public or private offering of securities or other similar purpose where it may be relied upon to any degree by any
person other than the client without first obtaining the prior written consent of Economics Research Associates.
This study may not be used for purposes other than that for which it is prepared or for which prior written consent
has first been obtained from Economics Research Associates.
This study is qualified in its entirety by, and shauld be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions and
considerations.
~
-'e'
PROJ6'CY No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS VI
INTRODUCTION
This draft Economic.Base Analysis presents some basic economic information regarding the region and Chula
Vista to provide context for the Steering Committee members. The document is descriptive and does not seek to
prescribe policy or recommend a course of action. As Chula Vista's Economic Strategic Plan is developed,
information in the Economic Base Analysis will be added or revised to incorporate input from the Steering
Committee and the Economic Development Commission, the focus groups' findings, and additional research that
will occur over the next several months.
Thank you.
.-
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASil! ANALYSIS 1
THE SAN DIEGO REGIONAL ECONOMY
Since WWlI, employment growth has correlated with population growth in San Diego County. The region grew
because of job opportunities created by a few select sectors, which attracted population into San Diego County.
During most periods, as employment growth rose or fell population growth corresponded with a few exceptions.
While changes in employment and population growth rates are expected as the macro-economy traverses through
business cycles, several of the changes were associated with external shocks to the regional economy. Most of
these shocks were attributable to the County's dependence on the defense industry. The Korean War build-up
and phase-out in the 1950s, the aerospace boom and bust in the early 1960s, the Vietnam War build-up and
phase-out in the late 1960s, and the military expansion and downsizing in the 1980s all led to growth spurts and
abatements.
Despite periods of declining economic growth rates, the population of San Diego County grew overall. The
region has experienced declines in total employment only four times since the Korean War, according to the San
- 'ego Association of Governments (SANDAG). These declines occurred during the phase-out of the Korean
War in the mid-1950s, the aerospace bust in the early 1960s, the recession of 1981-82, and the post Cold War
economic restructuring from 1991-93. These periods of declining employment were generally short- lived and,
except for the Korean War phase out, population growth still occurred, although at lower than historical rates.
From 1980 to 2000, total employment in the region including wage & salary employment, the military, and the
self-employed, increased from over 840,000 to 1,343,000, a 2.3 percent annual increase. Civilian employment
grew from over 722,000 in 1980 to 1,249,000 in 2000, a 2.6 percent annual growth rate. For comparison,
population during this period grew from 1,862,000 in 1980 to 2,659,000 in 1995, a 2.2 percent annual growth
rate.
The economy is more diverse today. Military expenditures, tourism, and education help stabilize the regional
economy, while growing international trade and technology-based industries such as telecommunications,
software development, and biotechnology, that have emerged over the past 15-years are leading regional
economic growth.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 2
The San Diego non-military economy is comprised primarily of small finns. According to SANDAG,
approximately 97 percent of the region's 91,700 finns in 1995 had 50 or fewer employees, accounting for 49
percent of the region's civilian employment. Less than 2 percent of the finns had 51-100 employees, comprising
10 percent of total civilian employment. Less than I percent of the finns had 101-250 employees, comprising II
percent of employmeni. There were only 278 large finns with more than 250 employees, accounting for 20
percent of total civilian employment. Approximately 9 percent of the workforce was self-employed. While the
region's economy is comprised mostly of small and moderate-sized finns with less than 100 employees, the
larger finns of over 100 employees are more represented among the primary industries that drive the regional
economy and comprise almost a third of the region's civilian employment.
According to SANDAG, the civilian employment center for the San Diego region has shifted north since 1980.
By 2005, approximately 19 percent of civilian employees are expected to work in the Central Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA), a significant decline from 39 percent in 1980. The North City MSA is projected to
become the dominant employment center in the region, with 35 percent of civilian workers. The East Suburban,
North County East, and North County West MSAs each comprise approximately 10-12 percent of regional
civilian employment. The East County MSA employs only 1 percent of regional civilian employment. The
South Suburban MSA, which includes Chula Vista, is projected to employ 8.5 percent of the region's civilian
employment by 2005, compared to 6 percent in 1980.
REGTONAL GROWTH INDUSTRIES
An analytical technique called "Shift-share Analysis" was used to identify the industries in San Diego County
that are growing faster than the national economy, and proportionately faster in San Diego County than they are
growing proportionately in the nation, as measured by non-government employment from 1992-1997 (the last
year such data was reported). Exhibit A-I displays the results of this analysis.
The following 2-digit Standard Industrial Code (SIC) industries were the fastest growth industries during this
period, regardless of size:
. Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
. Security, commodity brokers and services
. Manufacturing: paper and aIlied products
. Transportation and other public utilities: communication
. Manufacturing: petraleum and coal products
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 3
. Wholesale trade: durable goods
. Amusement and recreation services
. Services, not elsewhere classified
. Heavy construction
. Manufacturing: apparel and other textile products
. Business services
The following 2-digit SIC industries exhibited the fastest growth rates during the period among the larger
industries that employ more than 10,000 workers in the county:
. Transportation and other public utilities: communication
. Wholesale trade: durable goods
. Amusement and recreation services
. Business services
. Manufacturing: industrial machinery and equipment
. Wholesale trade: non-durable goods
. Engineering & management services
. Auto repair, services and garages
. General contract and operative builders
The following 2-digit SIC industries in San Diego County arè growing faster nationally than the national
economy as a whole, !!ill! growing faster locally than the industry is growing nationally:
. Services: Engineering & management services
. Wholesale trade: Wholesale trade-durable goods
. Services: Social services
. Services: Amusement & recreation services
. Transportation and other public utilities: Trucking and warehousing
. Finance, insurance and real estate: Security, commodity brokers & services
. Manufacturing: Rubber and misc. plastic products
. Construction: Heavy construction
. Services: Motion pictures
. Services: Services, n.e.c.
PltOJl!cTNo. 13879 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS 4
This later list represents growth industries for which the San Diego region demonstrated better than average
competitiveness during the period analyzed. The prior two lists include some local growth industries which may
be growing at less than the average national growth rate (as measured by employment), or for which the San
Diego region demonstrated average or below average growth for the particular industry.
Some interesting observations of the changes between 1992 and 1997:
. Manufacturing of industrial machinery and equipment was among the fastest growing industries in the
region, even though its national growth rate was below average;
. Manufacturing jobs of electric and electronic equipment declined locally, even though it grew nationally,
albeit below the national average;
. Manufacturing of transportation equipment also declined much faster locally than it declined nationally;
. Manufacturing of instruments and related products declined locally and nationally;
. Manufacturing, overall, declined locally, even though it grew nationally, albeit at less than average rates;
. Communications grew much faster than average locally than the industry grew nationally; in fact, the
industry's growth rate nationally was below the national average;
. Wholesale trade of durable goods and non-durable goods grew much faster locally than they did nationally,
perhaps reflecting NAFT A's influence and more aggressive Port trade;
. Depository and" non-depository financial institutions perfonned much worse locally than they did nationally;
. Business services, which includes some software development, was among the fastest growing industries in
the region, but the growth rate was still below the industry's growth rate nationally;
. Amusement and recreation services, San Diego's tourism industry, continues to grow much faster locally
than nationally;
. Engineering and management services are growing slightly faster locally than the industry is growing
nationally, far exceeding the average national growth rate in both cases.
WAGES BY INDUSTRY AND OCCUPATION
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) and Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics produce an
annual report of wages by industry in California Counties. Data is based on quarterly tax reports submitted to
EDD by California employers subject to State unemployment insurance (UI) laws. Though not considered
PROU!CT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS 5
official EDD labor market data, they are available through EDD for purposes of evaluating labor market trends
. making industry comparisons. Exhibit 1-1 shows average wages in San Diego County in 1999, by industry
at the two-digit SIC code level. The average for all industries was $33,972. Average pay in the Transportation
and Public Utilities industry was $67,259, nearly twice the overall average and more than three times that of the
lowest category, Retail.Trade ($19,229). In addition to Retail Trade, Services and Agriculture, Forestry, and
Fishing also reflected average salaries below the average for all industries.
Exhibit 1-2 presents average wages in San Diego County by occupation. This data is based on the Directory of
Califarnia Local Area Wages, produced annually by EDD. Management Occupations top the list with average
earnings of over $72,000 annually. Food Preparation and Serving-Related Occupations have the lowest average
at approximately $15,600 per year. The average for all occupations was $35,600.
INTERNATiONAL TRADE
International trade has played a key role in the region's economic diversification process. San Diego is among
one of the Nation's fastest growing foreign trade sectors (including NAFTA related trade). Exhibit 1-3 shows
'al exports from San Diego County to the rest of the world, while Exhibit 1-4 shows the distribution of export
praducts. San Diego has more than doubled the economic value of its exports, from $4.3 billion in 1993 to $8.5
billion in 1998, the most recent year for which data are available, for an annual growth rate of 14.6 percent. The
preponderate proportion of these exports' value consists of manufactured products, which accounted for 98.0
percent of the total dollar value of exports from the County. The leading segments were technology equipment,
typically industrial machinery and camputers, along with electric and electronic equipment.
Exhibit 1-5 and Exhibit 1-6 show the quantity of imports that entered the United States through San Diego ports
of entry between 1994 and 2000. The data is presented in thousands of dollars. Imports from all countries more
than tripled aver the past six years, rising from $7.0 billion in 1994 to over $22.0 billion in 2000. This represents
an avera~~ annual growth rate of20.0 percent. Mexico remains the most important source of imports in San
Diego. Over the last 5 years, imports from Mexico averaged nearly $13.8 billion annually, representing more
than three-quarters of total imports entering the U.S. through San Diego area customs districts. Finally, the share
of total U.S. imports entering through San Diego (versus other regions) has increased from 1.4 percent in 1994 to
2.4 percent in the year 2000.
PRO'lfCT No. ~3B79 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 6
Exhibit 1-1 -- San Diego County Average Wages by Occupation, 2000
2000 Wages
Entry-Level Average Average
Occupational Title Hourly Wage Hourly Wage Annual Wage
Total all occupations $7.60 $17.12 $35,597
Management $18.98 $35.01 $72,821
Legal $16.76 $32.74 $68,098
Computer and Mathematical $17.47 $27.61 $57,423
Architecture and Engineering $15.50 $25.90 $53,892
Life, Physical, and Social Science $13.93 $24.09 $50,110
Business and Financial Operations $14.18 $23.02 $47,886
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical $12.41 $22.64 547,091
Education, Training, and Library $10.04 520.10 541,806
Construction and Extraction $10.71 $18.43 538,332
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and
Media $9.71 $18.37 538,218
Community and Social Sevices $9.79 $17.66 $36,721
Protective Service $7.14 $16.80 $34,941
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair $9.01 $16.32 $33,950
Sales and Related $6.59 $13.77 $28,658
Office and Administrative Support $8.29 $13.07 $27,182
Production $6.90 $11.87 524,694
Transportation and Material Moving $6.48 $11.06 $23,013
Healthcare Support $7.20 $10.70 $22,257
Personal Care and Service $6.24 $9.96 $20,720
Building and Grounds Cleaning and
Maintenance $6.14 $9.19 $19,116
Fanning, Fishing, and Forestry $5.96 $9.06 $18,830
Food Preparation and Serving-Related $5.98 $7.51 $15,627
Source: California Employment Development Department
Exhibit 1-2 -- San Diego County Average Wages by
Industry. 1999
Industry Average Pay
Transportation and Public Utilities $ 67,259
Federal Government 45,659
Manufacturing 44,467
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 43,937
Wholesale Trade 42,581
State Government 41,948
Local Government 35,074
Construction 34,774
Average for All Industries 33,972
Services 31,641
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing 20,392
Retail Trade 19,229
Source: Covered Employment and Wages Program (ES-202),
California Employment Development Department
Exhibit 1-3 -- San Diego County Exports. 1993-1998 ($ 000)
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Exhibit 1-4 -- San Diego Exports by Sector. 1998 ($ 000)
3,500,000
3,000,000 '.
,
2,500,000 I
2,000,000 :.
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
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..<hibit 1-5 - General and Consumption Value of San Diego County Imports from All
Countries rooo of Year 2000 Dollars)
Year General Value CAGR1 % oCTotal US Imports
1994 $ 7,454,791 1.4%
1995 8,927,974 19.8% 1.5%
1996 10,995,467 23.2% 1.7%
1997 14,033,159 27.6% 1.9%
1998 16,458,606 17.3% 2.1%
1999 19,076,938 15.9% 2.2%
2000 22,262,920 16.7% 2.4%
CAGR1
1994-2000 20.0%
ICompound Annual Growth Rate
Source: I ç :7 -2000 RAND Corporation and Economics Research Associates
Exhibit 1-6 - San Diego County Imports
S,5.00C.:ao
S,O.OOO.OOO
I
S I 5.000.000 I
I
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¡
SS.OOO.OOO
!
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: 1997-2000 RAND Corporation and Economics Research Associates
While growing NAFT A trade has generated business and employment opportunities, particularly in the South
Bay, the trade statistics can be misleading. A significant share of the trade is simply goods traversing through
San Diego between Mexico and other locations.
!:!MEL1
The North American Free Trade Act was signed into law in 1994, formalizing the trend for more open trade
relations between the US, Mexico and Canada. In 1997, the California Trade and Commerce Agency issued a
report assessing the impact ofNAFTA on the State of California. This report concluded not only that California
had benefited from NAFTA, but that the border area had experienced "direct and immediate benefits". Among
these benefits are job creation, particularly trade related jobs such as customs brokers, and in activities such as
goods transportation and distribution. The report also found that many of the maquiladoras located in Baja
California are headquartered in San Diego County, contributing to the economic vitality of the region. The Trade
and Commerce Agency report identified 13 issues of special importance to California. The following nine are
those that most directly affect areas near the border:
1. Fast-track and expansion of NAFTA-The expansion of NAFTA into Latin America would increase
California exporters' access to South American markets.
2. Reduction of agricultural trade barriers-Califomia would benefit from increased access to the Mexican
market through consistency and transparency in Mexico's agricultural product importation system.
3. Cross-border trucking-Delay in opening the border to commercial trucking has slowed trade flows between
Mexico and the United States.
4. Transportation infrastructure-The completion of State Route 905, State Route 7 and reparation of the
SD&AE rail line are examples of infrastructure improvements necessary to accommodate increased levels of
trade under NAFTA.
5. Dispute resolution-The NAFTA dispute resolution process should be strengthened and brought into line
with the WTO system.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 11
(; Customs-Hannonization and simplificatian of customs regulations is necessary to promate NAFT A trade.
7. Labeling-Labeling requirements that act as non-tariff barriers should be streamlined or eliminated.
8. Border Investment-California and Baja California should increase investment in the border region to help
trade flows and increase jobs.
9. Gavernment procurement-Thaugh NAFTA provided for more open competition in government
procurement contracts, little progress has been achieved in this area.
THE MAOUlLADORA INDUSTRY
San Diego's regional economy, particularly in the South County, has close ties to Tijuana. In Tijuana, the most
important economic activity is the maquiladora industry, with a total of 184,756 employees in 779
establishments distributed over 52 industrial parks and centers. Outstanding among these are the New Tijuana
-'dustri:ll City, with 130 plants generating 30,000 jobs; the Pacific Indusrrial Park, with 34 plants and 12,500
employe~s; and the Tijuana IntemationalIndustrial Park, with 33 plants and 5,600 employees. A great part of the
city's IT'.:lquiladora industry has to do with the production of television sets and electronic apparatus. Of these,
Samsun¿, Sony, Sanyo and Panasonic are the most prominent. The extraordinary quantity of television sets
produced in the city has earned it the name of "television capital of the world."
The 1990s were years of great dynamism for Tijuana's maquiladora industry, during which the city almost
doubled the number of establishments, tripled the work personnel, and raised the mean aggregate value in dollars
at the go'ng exchange rate to 4.6 times what it had been, as shown in Exhibit 7. The value per finn has increased
from $1.2 million in 1990 to 53.0 million in 1999, reflecting an average annual growth rate of9.9 percent. Value
per employee has increased at an average annual rate af 5.4 percent, from $8,050 in 1990 to $13,580 in 1999.
This remarkable expansion of activities has spurred Tijuana's economic activity, but limited product links with
local Tijuana suppliers has constrained potential impacts.
PIIOU!CT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS 12
Exhibit 1-7 - CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MAQUILADORA INDUSTRY IN TlJUANA
Year Establishments Employees Aggregate value in
millions of dollars
1990 414 59,870 $481.9
1991 466 60,896 535.9
1992 515 68,960 638.4
1993 531 77,943 816.2
1994 502 85,521 939.1
1995 477 99,899 782.7
1996 529 112,100 1,045.0
1997 599 136,390 1,367.1
1998 667 146,202 I , 12 1.1
1999 733 161,840 2,198.0
20001 794 193,118 1,546.0'
CAGR' 90-99 6.6% 11.7% 18.4%
CAGR' 96-99 11.5% 13.0% 28.1%
'data up to the month of September, 2 data up to the month of June, 'Compound Annual Growth Rate
SOURCE: INEGI
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 13
~ ""TONAL STRA TEGY - EMPLOYMENT CLUSTERS
The overarching San Diego regional economic development strategy is to facilitate the growth of certain targeted
"cluster" industries, or groupings of interdependent, export-oriented industries. SANDAG has identified the
following industry clusters:
. Biomedical Products
. Biotech & Pharmaceuticals
. Business Services
. Communications
. Computer & Electronics Manufacturing
. Defense & Transportation Manufacturing
. Uniformed Military
. Visitor Industry Services
. Financial Services
. Fruits & Vegetables
. Horticulture
. Medical Services
. Recreational Goods Manufacturing
. Entertainment & Amusement
. Enviranmental Technology
. Software
Based on 1995 source data, SANDAG reports that there were approximately 316,300 workers in these industry
clusters in the county, or approximately 27.0 percent of countywide employment at that time. Exhibit 1-8
presents estimates and forecasts of cluster employment, and a comparison of cluster employment growth trends
with overall employment growth. During the 1990s, cluster employment grew at an average rate of 2.1 percent
per year, for an increase of 22.8 percent by 2000. Though the rate of growth in cluster employment is expected to
slow to 1.2 percent per year, it is still expected to reach 491,500 by 2020, an increase of nearly 28.0 percent. The
annual rate of total employment growth between 2000 and 2020, at 1.2 percent, is expected to greatly exceed that
of the pre,"ious period. This rate matches that of cluster employment and will lead to total employment of over
1.7 million. Nonetheless, cluster employment will continue to account for roughly one-third of regional
employrnc:1t.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS 14
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'¡ibit 1-9 presents a comparison of cluster employment and working-age population by jurisdiction.
University, Del Mar-Mira Mesa, Kearney Mesa and Central San Diego stand out as having a far higher
proportion of cluster employment than working-age population. In contrast, Chula Vista and National City have
a somewhat lower proportion of cluster jobs compared to working-age population, while South Bay (Otay, San
Ysidro, and Imperial Beach) has a much lower proportion of cluster industry employment than working-age
population.
""OJltCT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 16
Exhibit 1-9 - Percent of Cluster Employment and Percent of Working-
Age Population In Selected Areas
National City
Santee
Coastal ~
San Dieguito ..
Cadsbad ~~
Chula Vista U~~
OCtuS!" Employment
EI Cajon 'If" II Working-Age Population
South Bay JI5Ili
Escondido ~
Del Mar-Mira Mesa .~:3
Keamy Mesa
Central San Diego i
I
I
SOU"", Center on Policy Initiatives
II. CHULA VISTA IN THE SAN DIEGO REGIONAL CONTEXT
This section describes the existing and emerging economic and demographic trends in Chula Vista, and explains
how these trends compare to trends in the San Diego region and the nation.
POPULATION CHARACTER1STlCS
Population and Households
Chula Vista is the second largest jurisdiction in the county, accounting for approximately 6.0 percent of the
Region's population. In 2000, the city had an estimated population of 175,700, a 30.0 percent increase from
1990. During the 1990s, the City's population grew at an average rate of2.7 percent per year, compared to the
regional groWth rate of 1.6 percent per year and the national groWth rate of 1.0 percent per year. In the coming 20
years, population groWth in Chula Vista is again expected to outstrip that of the region and nation. SANDAG has
forecast that Chula Vista will add nearly 100,000 people by 2020, a 57.0 percent increase, or an average annual
¿roWth rate of 2.3 percent. In contrast, San Diego County is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.4 percent
per year while the national population is expected to increase by approximately 0.8 percent annually.
Map 1 illustrates population distribution in and around Chula Vista in 1995 and Map 2 shows the same
information for 2020. Each dot represents 200 persons. Comparison of the two maps shows how Chula Vista's
future population is projected to shift east as Otay Ranch develops.
In 2000, Chula Vista contained more than 57,000 households, a 20.0 percent increase from 1990. The number of
households grew at an average rate of 1.8 percent per year during the 1990s, compared with the regional growth
rate of 0.9 percent and the national rate of 1.1 percent. Exhibit II-I displays a comparison of population and
household groWth estimates for Chula Vista. SANDAG has forecast that the number of households in Chula
Vista will grow to over 92,000 by 2020, a 61.0 percent increase, for an annual average groWth rate of2.4 percent.
During the 2000-2020 period, the number of households in the county is expected to grow at an average annuai
rate of 1.6 percent. National household projections are only available through 2010, but suggest a groWth rate of
appraximately 1.1 percent. As Exhibit 11-2 illustrates, while the projected number of households is increasing at
]fly the same rate as the population in Chula Vista, the number of households in the region and nation is
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 18
"'IIap 1 - Chula Vista Population Distribution, 1995
PROJeCT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BAse ANALYS'S 19
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PROU!CT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 20
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Exhibit 11-1 - Chula VIsta Population and Numbe. of Households. Estimates and Forecasts
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000 I
100,000 I
50,000 ì
I
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
So=<. US C""'" e...... SANDAG ond w,oomi" R==b """"""
Exhibit 11-2 - Household and Population Growth Rat. Comparison
Popul"lon Hnu..bolds
Chub Vi... 2.3% 2.4%
Son 01'10 lI'Iion 1.4% 1.6%
Nodon 8.0% 1.1%
SOU""' US Crns.. eu","u. SANDAG ond Eronomi" R"""b Associ.."
projected to grow at an appreciably higher rate than the population. This suggests that while household size is
projected to decline in the region and nation, it is projected to remain relatively stable in Chula Vista.
Ethnic Composition'
Exhibit 11-3 displays the CUITent ethnic composition ofChula Vista in comparison with the San Diego region and
the nation as a whole. Chula Vista's population is primarily Hispanic and Non-Hispanic White, with these two
groups accounting for approximately 85.0 percent of the total population. Hispanics are the largest ethnic group
in the city, representing approximately 43.0 percent of the population. Hispanics make up 25.0 percent of the
regional population, and 12.0 percent of the national population. Asians account for 11.0 percent of the city's
population, which is similar to their proportion in the region (10.0 percent), but much greater than the national
average (4.0 percent). The opposite trend is observed in the Black population, which accounts for a much lower
share of the city and regional population (5.0 and 6.0 percent respectively) compared with the national share
(12.0 percent). The time series projections displayed in Exhibit 11-4 shows the Hispanic and Asian population
growing in Chula Vista over the next 20 years, while the White and Black populations decline. This trend is
expected to occur regionally as well.
Al?e Distribution
SANDAG has forecast what it calls a "major shift in the age structure of the region's population" over the next
20 years. Though all age groups will grow, the proportion of the population 45 years or older is growing
relatively faster than the proportion of individuals under 45 years as the "baby boom" generation ages.
SANDAG has forecast a 12.0 percent decline in the region's child population accompanied by a 29.0 percent
increase in the senior population ratio. This trend is present in Chula Vista as well. In 1999, SANDAG estimated
the average age in Chula Vista at 32.9 years, and forecasted the 2020 average age at 38 years. During the same
period, the child population ratio is expected to drop from 39.3 to 31.3 while the senior population ratio is
expected to increase from 18.5 to 21.1. Despite an aging population, Chula Vista is forecast to have a greater
percentage of population under the age of 18 than the region as a whole, and a lesser percentage of the population
over 65 years than the region as a whole. Exhibit 11-5 shows how an aging population is influencing the age
composition of the working-age population. The percent of the population ages 18 to 29 declined between 1990
and 2000, but is expected to remain relatively stable through 2020. The largest of the three groups, ages 30 to 54,
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALVSIS 22
Exhibit 11-3 - Ethnic Composition
Ethnic Cnmposition, Chula Vista, 2000
Ethnic Composition, San Diego Region, 2000
Id Population
Households
-. . .... . ... ..,.
Ethnic Composition, United States, 2000
Source: us Census Bu..au. SANDAG and Economics Res,arch Associates
Exhibit 11-4 - Chula Vista Ethnic Composition. Estimates and Forecasts
140,000 -+- Non-
Hispanic
120,000 White
-+- Hispanic
100,000
§ 80,000 Asian
c
is" 60,000
... --Black
40,000 I
20,000
-- --------------------------- I
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Soure" US Census Bu"au, SANDAG and Economics Research Associates
Exhibit 11.5 - Percent of Population by Workforce Age Group. Chula Vista. Estimates and
Forecasts
40%
35%
= 30%
= I -+-18-29
. 25%
is" I -+-~
~ 20% ~
~ 15% -0-55-69
t:. 10%
5%
I
0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: US Census Bumu, SANDAG and Economics Researeh Associates
lich grew over the last ten years, is expected to decline through the year 2020. In contrast, the percent of the
workforce population ages 55 to 69, which had dipped slightly during the 1990s, is expected to grow over the
next 20 years, ultimately overtaking the proportion of the population ages 18 to 29 at some point beyond 2010.
Household Characteristics
The student population accounts for a larger share of non-family households in the county compared to Chula
Vista. Married couples (with or without children) comprise a marginally higher share of households in Chula
Vista, with approximately 56.0 percent compared to the county's 53.0 percent. Single-person households
comprise approximately 22.0 percent of Chula Vista households, marginally lower than the county's 23.0
percent. Almost 13.0 percent of total households in the City are single parent households, which is relatively
high compared to the countywide average of approximately 9.0 percent.
Educational Attainment
.U.S. Census educational attainment data accounts for persons 25 years or older. According to the 1990 Census,
~le last year for which this data is available, approximately 24.0 percent of the Chula Vista population does not
have a high school diploma compared to 18.0 percent countywide. Approximately 50.0 percent of the Chula
Vista population has some college education or higher, compared to the county's 59.0 percent. Approximately
12.0 percent of the Chula Vista population has a Bachelor's de.gree and 6.0 percent have a graduate or
professional degree, compared to the county's 16.0 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively. Exhibit 11-6 presents a
comparison of educational attainment in Chula Vista, San Diego County and the nation as a whole. Given the
changing demographic characteristics in Chula Vista as new, higher-income households move in, average
education levels are expected to improve.
PROJECT No. 1SB79 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 2S
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'usehold Income Distrihution
In 2000, the estimated median household income in Chula Vista was $43,114', slightly higher than that of the
region and over 20.0 percent higher than the national median2. Exhibit 11-7 illustrates median income trends in
Chula Vista compared to the San Diego region. Forecasts show median income growth in both Chula Vista and
the regian over the next 20 years, the rate of growth in Chula Vista is expected to greatly exceed that of the
region. Incomes are projected to grow an average of 1.3 percent annually in Chula Vista compared to 0.7 percent
in the county as a whole. While Chula Vista still suffers ITom a perception that it is a low to moderate-income
community; in fact, its average income surpassed the countywide average in the mid-1990s, and it is projected to
grow at a faster rate.
Map 3 displays median income in and around Chula Vista, by geographic area. The higher income
neighborhaods are concentrated in the eastern half of the city while the lower income neighborhoods are
concentrated in the west.
\ccarding to SANDAG, during the 1990s the proportion of household in the region with incomes under $25,000
declined while the proportion with incomes above $50,000 grew. Exhibit 11-8 provides a comparison of income
distribution in Chula Vista and the region as a whole in constant 1995 dollars. Chula Vista contains a higher
percentage of households earning less than $49,000, and a lower percentage of households earning more than
$50,000. Exhibit 11-9 shows a comparison of income distribution in Chula Vista over time. In 1990, there was a
relatively large proportion of households in the lowest two brackets. The highest proportion of households
earned $15,000 to $24,000, followed by $35,000 to $49,000. By 2000, the proportion of households in the lowest
two brackets had declined substantially. In contrast, the proportion of households in the top four brackets gained
share, with the $50,000 to $74,000 bracket exhibiting the most growth. SANDAG has predicted that by the year
2020, the proportion of households in the top two brackets will decline, while that of the bottom two will
increase. Nearly one third of households will fall within the $35,000 to $49,000 bracket.
I Expressed in 1995 dollars
2 S35,477. expressed in 1995 dollars
PlfOJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 27
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PRO,,'CT No. 13879 ECONOM'C BASE ANALYS'S 28
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Exhibit 1\-8 .. Income Distribution. Chula Vista and the San
Diego Region. 2000
35%
30%
2510
20% I
15%
10%
5%
0%
~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~
"'~' ,,~' ,,'ft' ,,~'.f" .;:,"" ~o,. ,~~'
{... 1:1' 1:1' 1:1' 1:1' 1:1' 1:1' "
~Iij ~Iij ~Iij ~Iij ~Iij ~Iij -¡ II! Chula Vista \
~, 'J' '¡, ~. <;:\. '\". I I
,,~ ,,' ,,0;.. ,,'> ,,':3 " ' .0 San Diego
Source: SANDAG and Economics Research Associates
Exhibit 11-9 .- Chula Vista Income Distribution. Estimates and
Forecasts
35% I 0<SI0,OOO
30% I I!ISI0,000-SI4,OOO
OSI5,000-S24,000
25% - ,OS25,OOO - S34,OOO
r-
20% I-- ,--- . S35,000 - S49,000
15% trr: OS50,OOO - S74,000
r, r- t I!IS75.000 - S99,OOO
10~:, ~ 1 AI--- 0> S100,000
,1 II
5% , ~ ~Il
'( "
0% ;
1990 2000 2020
Source: SANDAG and Economics Research Associates
Average annual wage estimates and forecasts provided by SANDAG show relative parity between people
working in Chula Vista and workers in the region as a whole. In 1995, the average annual wage in Chula Vista
was $27,700, less than 2.0 percent lower than the average for the region of $28,200. By 2005, SANDAG predicts
that wages will be less than $300 per year lower in Chula Vista, a difference of less than 1.0 percent.
EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS
Emplovment bv Occupation
Exhibit 11-10 shows the distribution of employment by occupation in the San Diego Region. Between 1990 and
2000, total regional employment increased at an average rate of 1.8 percent per year, growing from 977,500 to
nearly 1.2 million (a 20 percent increase).
Between 1990 and 2000, total employment by occupation in Chula Vista increased at an average annual rate of
1.3 percent, significantly less than the countywide rate, for a total increase of nearly 6,300 jobs (Exhibit 11-11).
In 1990, the majority of workers were employed in Production, Construction & Maintenance occupations (23.0
percent), followed by Professional and Technical (22.0 percent), Clerical (18.0 percent), and Services (15.5
percent). With the exception ofa notable drop in the proportion of those with Production, Construction &
Maintenance occupations, which dropped to 19.0 percent making ProfessionallTechnical the leading occupational
category, the proportions remained relatively constant through 2000. All occupational categories except
Production, Construction & Maintenance and Clerical grew at rates faster than that of total employment.
SANDAG has forecast that between 2000 and 2020, employment in Chula Vista will grow at an average rate of
nearly 2.0 percent per year, compared with the regional rate of 1.2 percent per year. This is a major shift in
historical trends. This will add nearly 30,000 jobs to the city by 2020. Professional & Technical, and Managerial
& Administrative are expected to grow at rates above that of general employment, averaging 2.4 and 2.1 percent
per year, respectively. Employment growth in Chula Vista is expected to outpace growth rates in the region in
every occupational category.
Despite this faster than average employment growth, SANDAG still forecasts that Chula Vista will serve as a
bedroom community as well, with residents commuting to jobs outside the city. SANDAG estimates that the
jobs/housing ratio in Chula Vista was 0.85 compared to 1.09 countywide in 1995, and will grow to 0.91 in Chula
Vista compared to 1.16 countywide by 2020.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 31
"ibit 11-10 - San Diego Region Employment by Occupation.
Estimates and Forecasts OManagenal and
Administrative I
30% . \
13 ProfessIOnal and
Technical
;; 25%
~ o~
iõ'20%
1 o~
¡.¡ 15% -
i 10% - . Services \
~ 5%. ff. mi. ~ ~ 0 Agriculture, Forestry.!
\ 1 FIShing:
0% .., - :
II Production. :
1990 2000 2010 2020 Construction.
Maintenance
Source: SANDAG and Economics Research Associates
Exhibit 1I~11 -Chula Vista Employment by Occupation.
Estimates and Forecasts OManagenal and
30% Administrative ¡
œ Professional and '
25% Technical
¡:
~ OSa!es i
iõ' 20% I
Co
~ 15% - OClenca!
'=
~ 10% - . Services
~ m H ~. I
5% '. I. \ 1. 0 Agriculture, Forestry;
: ~ I¡' Fishing
, ¡ . t
0% . I!IProduction.
1990 2000 2010 2020 Construction.
Maintenance
Source: SA.. "IDAG and Economics Research Associates
Employment bv Industrv
Exhibit II-12 shows Chula Vista employment as a percentage of San Diego regional employment while Exhibit
11-13 displays employment by industry trends for people working in Chula Vista, in accordance with SANDAG's
published sector classifications. During the 1990s, employment in nearly all industries grew robustly in Chula
Vista. Services, one of the largest industries expanded by 3.9 percent per year. Agriculture, Mining &
Construction, Transportation, Communications & Public Utilities, Wholesale Trade, Finance, Insurance & Real
Estate (FIRE), and govemment employment all experienced average annual growth rates of between 2.7 percent
and 4.9 percent.
Unfortunately, during that same period, the largest industry sector, manufacturing employment, shrunk by
approximately 40.0 percent, while the second largest industry, Retail Trade, grew by a meager 0.7 percent per
year. Much of the decline in manufacturing is attributable to Rohr's downsizing during the early half of the
decade. By 2000, the Manufacturing industry was no longer one of the largest sectors, accounting for 10.5
percent of employment, compared to almost 20.0 percent in 1990. Currently, the Services industry is the largest
employer, accounting for 25.0 percent of employment, followed by Retail Trade (22.0 percent) and Government
(17.0 percent). All other industries account for less than 10.0 percent; however, Wholesale Trade's share of
Çhula Vista employment grew from 3.8 percent in 1990 to 5.4 percent in 2000, and FIRE grew from 3.9 to 4.9
percent. In comparison with the region as a whole, Chula Vista has a larger proportion of employment in Retail
Trade (21.6 percent versus 17.4 percent), and a slightly larger proportion of employment in Wholesale Trade (5.4
percent versus 4.0 percent) and Government (17.3 percent versus 14.6 percent). Chula Vista has a noticeably
smaller proportion of employment in the Agriculture, Mining & Construction (3.3 percent versus 6.3 percent) and
FIRE sectors (4.9 percent versus 6.5 percent) compared to region-wide proportions. SANDAG combines
Construction employment data with Agriculture & Mining; however, most of the employment in this combined
sector is in Construction.
With the exception of Manufacturing, all sectors in Chula Vista are expected to achieve average annual growth
rates of between 1.3 percent and 3.7 percent through 2020. This will result in increasing proportions of
employment in Wholesale Trade, FIRE and Services. Manufacturing is expected to grow at an annual rate of less
than 0.4 percent, resulting in a continuing decline of its proportion of total employment. Retail Trade is also
forecast to grow at a rate below that of total employment, reducing its share of employment. FIRE, Services and
Wholesale Trade are expected to grow at rapid rates and increase their share of employment in Chula Vista.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 33
CJ Agriculture. Mining &
Construction
Exhibit 11-12 - Chula Vista Employment
as a Percentage of San Diego Regional Employment I!I Manufacturing
8% CJTransportation, Communications,
and Public Utilities
7%
CJ Wholesale Trade
6%
5% . Retail Trade
4%
3% DFinance, Insurance and Real
Estate
2% I I I!IServices
1% I ~
0%. '.' , DOoveroment
1990 2020
[3 Self Employment and Domestic
Source: SANDAG and Economics Research Associates Workers
Exhibit 11.13 -Chula Vista. Employment by Industry. Estimates and Forecasts
D Agriculture, Mining &
30,000 Construction
I!I Manufacturing
25,000
DTransportation,
20,000 Communications, and Public
Utilities
DWholesale Trade
15,000
. Retail Trade
10,000
D Finance, Insurance and Real
5,000 Estate
BServices
.
1990 2000 2010 2020 DOoyeroment
Source: SANDAG and Economics Research Associates . Military
SANDAG employment estimates and forecasts reflect persons employed in a given jurisdiction rather than
resident employment.
Industrv Sector Profile for Firms
In 1999,40.0 percent of firms in Chula Vista were in the Services category. Retail trade was the next largest
category at almost 27.0 percent, followed by FIRE with 10.6 percent, Wholesale trade with 8.7 percent, and
Manufacturing with nearly 7.0 percent. The spatial location of firms in these sectors is presented in Exhibit A-I.
~
Exhibit 11-14 displays a comparison of firm size in Chula Vista versus the region, and Exhibit 11-15 displays this
comparison in employment terms. The San Diego non-military economy is comprised primarily of small firms.
In 1999, approximately 92.0 percent of the region's 50,594 firms had less than 50 employees, accounting for 38.0
percent of the region's civilian employment. Similarly, in Chula Vista approximately 93.0 percent of firms had
less than 50 employees, accounting for nearly 37.0 percent of employment. Chula Vista has a larger proportion
of large employers (500+ employees), including government, than the region as a whole, and these employers
account for a far greater share ofChula Vista's employment than they do in the region. Chula Vista's largest
non-government employers, as of August 1999, include B.F. Goodrich Aerospace (2,075 employees), Sharp
Chula Vista Medical Center (800 employees), Scripps Memorial Hospital (650 employees), Knott's Soak City
(500 employees), and American Fashion Inc. (390 employees). Exhibit A-2 shows the location ofChula Vista
firms by sector and firm size. The smallest businesses, those with fewer than 9 employees are largely found west
of the 805 freeway, concentrated in the Third Avenue District, the Broadway corridor, and Main Street. The
largest firms, those with more than 500 employees, are almost exclusively located along the 1-5 corridor and
Downtown.
Cluster Employment Characteristics in Chula Vista
The most recent data on cluster employment in Chula Vista is from 1995. Exhibit 11-16 displays the distribution
of employment in the regionally targeted cluster industries, while Exhibit 11- I 7 provides a comparison with the
region. In 1995, employment in cluster industries accounted for approximately 25.0 percent of employment in
Chula Vista, a slightly lower proportion than in the region as a whole. Chula Vista's 11,372 cluster jobs
accounted for 3.6 percent of cluster jobs region-wide, slightly less than Chula Vista's 3.9 percent of total civilian
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 35
Exhibit 11-14 --Percent of Firms by Firm Size. 1999
0 Chula Vista
III San Diego Region
-- -------~----------- --
--- - ----------------------
------------------------------- -----
----------------------
0%
I to 19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 More than
500
Number of Employees
Source: Inside Prospects and City of Chula Vista Community Development Department
- Exhibit 11-15 -- Percent of Employment
by Firm Size. 1999 0 Chula Vista
I!ISan Diego Region
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 to 19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 More than
Number of Employees 500
Source: Inside Prospects and City of Chuta Vista Community Development Department
I
I
I
ExhIbit 11-'6- Distribution of Cluster Employment In Chula Vista,'OO' r~-'
Business Services
Computer & Electronics
~ Manufacturing
Defense & Transportation
Manufacturing
Horticulture
Recreational Goods
Manufacturing Medical Services
So",c" SANDAG and Economies Res",,' Associates Fruit & Vegetables
Exhibit 11.17 - Cluster Employment Compared, Chula Vista and San DIego Region
Visito' Industry Services ,.-', -'-'----'-'-'-."".,--
Software & Computer Services I I \
Recreational Goods Manufacruring
Medical Services --.._~" ~,,--- -. ,.."..-. --"'.-"-'.
Horticulture
Fruit & Vegetables
Financial Services
Environmental Tecbnology
Entertainment & Amusemcnt I
Defense & Transportation Manufacturing " M_.~_,,--,
Computer & Electronics Manufacturing . I I
Communications '. I
Business Services .~~."
Biotechnology & Pbannaceuticals I
Biomedical Products --
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Source: SANDAG and Economics Research Associates . San Diego Region
CChuia Vista
JS in 1995. Five of the designated industry clusters have a significant presence in Chula Vista. The Visitor
Industry Services accounts for 32.0 percent of cluster industry employment in Chula Vista and 7.9 percent of
overall city employment. Visitor Industry Services includes restaurants and food outlets, whether or not they
serve a tourist market. A recent study by the San Diego Workforce Partnership found that this cluster is
characterized by low wages, weak intemallinkages (finns in this cluster industry do not generally buy and sell
products to other finns in the cluster), and limited career opportunities due to the low number of management and
supervisor positions available. Despite these somewhat negative attributes, the study found that the Visitor
Industry Services cluster will continue to act as a "stabilizer" by providing employment to individuals lacking the
skills, education or specialized expertise necessary to work in high-tech fields.
Medical Services accounts for 27.0 percent of cluster employment in Chula Vista, and 7.0 percent of overall city
employment. This cluster is important because it includes a large proportion of professions with high training
requirements, resulting in relatively higher wages. However, the Workforce Partnership report also noted that
this cluster faces increasing pressures to cut costs, which could result in decreasing employment and/or lower
wages.
Finally, Defense & Transportation Manufacturing accounts for 18.0 percent of cluster employment in Chula
Vista, and 5.0 percent of overall city employment. These three industries, plus Business Services (8.5 percent of
cluster employment in Chula Vista) and Financial Services (4.3 percent of cluster employment in Chula Vista)
account for a higher proportion of cluster employment than they do in the region as a whole.
The data shows that while Chula Vista has finns in selected industry clusters that the region is targeting for future
economic growth, the three largest cluster industry's in Chula Vista are either relatively low wage (Visitor's
Industry), service-oriented (Medical Services), or dependent on Federal procurements (Defense Industry). Chula
Vista is not well represented among the technology-oriented cluster industries, such as communications, bio-
medical, bio-technical, software & computer services, computer and electronics manufacturing, and
environmental technology. These other cluster industries are projected to have the greatest wage and growth
potential.
PROJECT No. 73879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 38
VISITOR MARKET
As shown in Exhibit 11-18, ERA estimates that the total number of overnight visitors to South County is 2
million annually. This estimate is based on the San Diego Convention and Visitors Bureau's definition and data
for "South San Diego," which includes the communities of Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, National City, San
Ysidro, EI Cajon, La Mesa and Lemon Grove. The estimates of rooms and visitor characteristics are primarily
based on 1997-98 data provided by the San Diego Visitors and Conventions Bureau, adjusted for the South
County market. ERA estimates that the average length of stay for visitors staying in hotels/motels is less than the
countywide average of 4.6 nights. ERA also estimates that the region has a fairly large share of tourists visiting
friends and family. The Chula Vista Convention and Visitors Bureau reports approximately 15,000 visitors visit
their office annually to inquire about local tourism and activities.
Chula Vista has the following attractions:
Knott's Soak City is a 33-acre water park attraction that opened in Chula Vista in May 1997 with an initial
investment in the project of approximately $15 million. It is the only water-park in San Diego County and one of
the largest picnic areas in the region. The park did not meet perfonnance expectations and the operators in 1999
filed for bankruptcy and foreclosed. However, Cedar Fair purchased the park for $11.6 million and an additional
32 acres of undeveloped land. Cedar Fair has invested $2 million in revamping the park and has reopened it as
Knott's Soak City USA, which attracts over 300,000 visitors annually.
Coors Amphitheater is a 20,000-seat perfonnance amphitheater that opened in 1998 with an initial investment
of $20 million. The facility was developed and operated by UniversallMCA Concerts Inc., and later sold to the
House of Blues in the fall of 1999. The street fronting the park and the amphitheater has been named
Entertainment Circle. The amphitheater attracts over 200,000 people per year.
Olympic Training Center: The visitor center for this national training facility for the U.S. Olympic team attracts
approximately 40,000 visitors per year.
Chula Vista Nature Center: This interpretive facility teaches visitors about the habitat and wildlife of the
adjacent wildlife estuary on the Chula Vista waterfront in San Diego Bay. The center attracts approximately
39,000 people per year.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 39
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LAND USE
Total Land Inventorv
Exhibit 11-19 shows land use in the San Diego Region, Chula Vista and five other selected jurisdictions in 1995.
The region is comprised of2.7 million acres, nearly 48.0 percent of which was vacant in 1995. Chula Vista
encompasses more than 30,700 acres, thus in addition to being the second largest jurisdiction in the region by
population, Chula Vista is the second largest by acreage. In 1995,73.0 percent ofland was in use, primarily
dedicated to Agriculture (21.0 percent) and Residential (20.9 percent). In contrast with the region as a whole,
only 8.1 percent of land is used for Parks and Recreation. Industrial land and Commercial and Office land are
three times more prevalent in Chula Vista compared with the region (3.3 percent and 2.7 percent respectively).
Exhibit 11-20 displays proportional land use in Chula Vista compared with the region as a whole.
Exhibit 11-21 presents land use in Chula Vista and selected jurisdictions as a proportion ofregionalland use.
Emplovment Lands
Exhibit 11-22 and Exhibit 11-23 present a comparison of employment lands inventories in Chula Vista and the
Region as awhole. In 1995, Chula Vista had over 1,000 acres of potential employment land, which represented
approximately 6 percent of available employment land in the region. By 2000, the amount of available
employment land in the region had declined, while the share in Chula Vista grew slightly, bringing Chula Vista's
share of regional employment lands up to 8 percent. Out of the total 1,247 acres in Chula Vista that have been
identified as future employment lands, only 24 acres (2 percent) were immediately available (defined as vacant,
titled and improved). These 24 acres represented 1.7 percent of immediately available acres region-wide. An
additional 36 acres were in the planning/proposal stage, 105 had been deemed unmarketable due to physical
constraints such as steep hills, and 120 acres were re-use or infill opportunities. Only Otay, Otay Mesa and
Oceanside have more total available employment lands, with 2,357, 2,888 and 1,263 acres respectively. Of these
three, only Otay Mesa has land available immediately, with 326 acres ready for development, although mostly
divided into relatively smaller parcels of less than 20 acres. Though other communities have fewer total available
acres, several have more immediately available than Chula Vista. These communities are listed in Exhibit 11-24.
Taken together, these areas account for 90.0 percent af immediately available regional employment lands.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS 41
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Exhibõt 11-22 - Employment Lands Inve"'oy In Chula VIsta and the San Diego RegIon
Vm.t Employm,.! to.d
IC"..Am,' 1000 ""k..S"tu. orvm.t Em.l"m,.! to.d tC".. Am.'
Am. Abso,b'" to.. T"rn Imm"'I",'y ."..,'" U.d"
1995 Am. 2000 Am. 1995-1000 A..Uobl, Avo"obl, "'po..d Co.sttU,"o. U.m"k".b',
50. 01"0 R..'o. 17)90 15,175 3,196 10,770 1,420 1,090 395 1,499
Cb.I.V"" 1,053 1)47 55 1,082 24 36 105
Cbul.V"""o%u!tb,
So. DI... R..io. 6.1% 8.m 1.7% 10.0% 1.7% 3.3% 0.0% 7.0%
Exhibõt 11.23 Market Status of Vacant Employment Land as a % of Total
Ion.""
00.0% .------------.- .-- -- --- -----
".." _u.
-- --- --
".0"
,...,.
-- --
10.,"'.
0.,"'
....,T=AnH.", """"""'I,M.""" p",""""""" """"C~;~ """""",,
Exhlbõt 11.24 ~ Communities With Mote
Immediately Available Land Than Chuta
VIsta
Commu"i", A""
Chul.Vi.1a 24
Cul,bad 140
Cum" V""y 48
K"""yM", 36
M'"M... 62
O"",,'d, 127
OlayM", 326
Pow,y 262
Ran,bo 8"",",0 41
S.b..Spring. 29
S,ripp' M'"",,, Ran,b 4S
U"iv""", 39
Vi.1a 137
SO""" SANOAG sod E,ooonmi" 'mu,h A.""iales
"o:\ustrial Space
In 2000, the South Bay had more than 13 million square feet of industrial space, a 52.0 percent increase over the
amount of industrial space in 1990, and 13.0 percent of the total for San Diego County. Over half of this quantity
was located in Chula VistalNational City, and only 2.5 percent of that located in Chula VistalNational City were
vacant, much lower than the countywide rate of 7.3 percent. Though asking rents had risen ITom $0.51 in 1990 to
$0.71 in Chula VistalNational City, they remained nearly 24.0 percent below the county average of$0.93
(Exhibit 11-25).
Office Space
Exhibit 11-26 and presents trends in office space vacancy, absorption and square feet. In 2000, the South Bay
had nearly than 427,000 square feet af office space, a 55.0 percent increase over the amount of space in 1990, but
less than 1.0 percent of the total for San Diego County. 5.8 percent of this space was vacant, compared with 4.1
percent vacant in the county. Exhibit 11-27 presents a comparison of office space absorption and vacancy rates
with the rest of San Diego County. Chula Vista's 6.0 percent vacancy rate is slightly higher than the county
'erage L:' 4.0 percent, but similar to office vacancy rates in East County, Scripps Ranch, Uptown, Downtown,
Mission \ alley and Carlsbad. Exhibit 11-28 shows office rent trends. Office rents in the South Bay, which
includes Chula Vista, were approximately 80.0 percent of the countywide average in 2000. Only East County
had lower rents.
Retail Space
Chula Vist:! had approximately 4.1 million squarefeet of retail space in 1998, up from 2.9 million in 1991.
Exhibit 11-29 and Exhibit 11-30 show retail space rent trends (Chula Vista is classified within the South Bay).
While rents in San Diego County as a whole and South Central county (excluding Chula Vista) have fluctuated
widely over the last several years, and rends in Chula Vista have remained relatively stable, showing a slow
increase during the 1990s.
New Construction
Between 1991 and 1999, the total number of permits for new construction in Chula Vista grew by an average of
8 percent per year. Commercial construction led growth, with an average annual growth rate of20.0 percent.
PROJECT No. ~3B79 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 44
Exhibit 11-25 - Industrial Space Inventory
(in '000 Square Feet)
Rentable Occupied Vacant Percent Net Asking Rent
Year..End ~ ~ ~ Ya.tan1 Absorption WlILllli1
19.2fi
South Bay 8,608 7,476 1,132 13.2% 896 0.51'
Total County 62,865 51,668 11,197 17.8% 3,351 n/a
1m2
South Bay 10,642 8,923 1,719 16.2% 284 $ 0.65
Total County 76,784 69,057 7,727 10.1% 2,190 $ 0.66
2lliill
National City/Chura Vista 7,698 7,509 189 2.5% 519 $ 0.71
Otay Mesa 5,362 4,887 475 8.9% 789 $ 0.50
Total South Bay 13,060 12,396 664 8.9% 1,308 -
Total County 102,741 95,280 7,461 7.3% 7,870 $ 0.93
South Bay as a % ofTotal
County 13% 13% 9% -- -- --
I Minimum of 10,000 square feet.
2 Includes R&D space
'Figure shown is Industrial, R&D was $0.62
Source: Grubb and Ellis
..JC:hibit 11.26 - Office Space Comparison, San Diego County and South Bay
(0005 of s,f)
Rentable Occupied Vacancy
Y=:..End ~ ~ Raœ
l22!l
South Bay 275 250 9.1%
San Diego County 38,516 29,536 23.3%
illS
South Bay 385 300 22.1%
San Diego County 40,741 33,514 1.8%
l!I!I!l
South Bay 427 402 5.9%
San Diego County 48,166 46,248 4.0%
Source: Economics Research Associate and Grubb and Ellis
Exhibit 11.27 - San Diego County Office Space Net
bsorption Vs. Vacancy (0005 of s.f.)
2000
Absorption Vacancy
Downtown 491 5%
Mission Valley 428 5%
Kearny Mesa 132 3%
University City 241 3%
Sorrento Mesa 329 3%
Torrey Pines 256 2%
Carlsbad 323 5%
Rancho Bernardo' 241 4%
Uptown 87 5%
Del Mar 972 3%
La Jolla 26 2%
Vista/San Marcos' 94 N/A
Scripps Ranch 183 5%
East County 29 6%
Soutb Bay 11 6%
Oceanside (2) 10%
All Other Areas N/A
San Diego County Total 4%
No:c:
¡ i; 9 7 and 1998 data combines Rancho Bernardo and Scripps Ranch
.990 data includes Vista only
- Rents sbown are full service asking rents, and are average value of bigh and low values across
all space classes
. Data is for speculative multi-tenant ollice buildings, 10,000s.f. and above
Source: Economics Research Associate and Grubb and Ellis
Exhibit 11-28 San Diego County: Office Rent Trends (Rent/s.f./month)
1990 1995 2000
Downtown $ 2.13 $ 1.14 $ 2.03
Mission Valley $ 1.73 $ 1.13 $ 1.97
Keamy Mesa $ 1.63 $ 1.09 $ 1.80
University City $ 2.65 $ 1.56 $ 2.55
Sorrento Mesa $ 1.63 $ 1.15 $ 3.16
Torrey Pines N/A $ 1.72 $ 2.20
Carlsbad $ 1.68 $ 1.15 $ 2.19
Rancho Bernardo' $ 1.78 $ 1.24 $ 2.31
Uptown N/A $ 0.88 $ 1.68
DelMar $ 1.93 $ 1.44 $ 3.27
La Jolla N/A N/A $ 2.77
Vista/San Marcos' $ 1.20 $ 1.15 S 1.67
Scripps Ranch N/A S 1.14 $ 2.08
East County N/A S 1.15 S 1.28
South Bay N/A N/A $ 1.45
Oceanside $ 1.28 N/A S 1.64
All Other Areas $ 1.95 $ 1.09 S 1.97
San Diego County Total $ 1.78 S 1.18 S 1.75
Note:
'1997 and 1998 data combines Rancho Bernardo and Scripps Ranch
'1990 data includes Vista only
- Rents shown are full service asking rents, and are average value of high and low values across
all space classes
- Data is for speculative multi-tenant office buildings, 10,000s.f. and above
- All values are in unadjusted current year dollars
Source: Economics Research Associate and Grubb and Ellis
Exhibit 11-29 San Diego County. Retail Rent Trends (Rent/s,f./month)
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
South Bay $ 1.33 $ 1.21 $ 1.25 $ 1.28 $ 1.35 $ 1.36 $ 1.32 $ 1.39
South Bay as a % of 87% 83% 88% 83% 107% 105% 96% 95%
County
South Central $ 1.27 $ 1.23 $ 1.26 $ 1.24 $ 1.03 $ 1.05 $ 1.20 $ 1.23
South Central as a % 83% 85% 89% 80% 82% 81% 88% 84%
of County
East County $ 1.33 $ 1.36 $ 1.39 $ 1.36 $ 1.28 $ 1.23 $ 1.24 S 1.28
Central $ 1.72 $ 1.68 $ 1.70 $ 1.69 S 1.37 $ 1.37 $ 1.53 S 1.79
North Central $ 1.59 S 1.56 S 1.44 $ 1040 S 1.32 $ 1.35 $ 1.34 S 1048
North County East $ 1.65 $ 1.56 $ 1.36 $ 1.34 $ 1.22 $ 1.24 $ 1.36 S 1.42
North Coast S 1.73 $ 1.62 $ 1.78 $ 1.75 $ 1048 S 1.50 $ 1.77 S 1.87
North County West $ 1.63 $ 1.37 $ 1.19 $ 1.20 S 1.06 $ 1.13 $ 1.22 S 1.29
San Diego County $ 1.39 $ 1.32 S 1.31 $ 1.55 S 1.26 S 1.29 $ 1.28 S 1.35
-Data does not include regional malls, but includes retail in freestanding buildings
with a minimum threshold size of 40,000 s.f.
-Rents shown are average effective asking rates on a triple-net basis in unadjusted
current year dollars
Source: Economics Research Associates and Grubb and Ellis
Exhibit 11-30 Retail Rent Trends Compared
$1.60
Sl.50
$1.40
1 S1.30
':;¡S1.20
~
,:S1.10
S1.00
SO.90
SO.80
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Source: Economics Research Associates and Grubb and Ellis
The majority of pennits issued, however, were for residential and miscellaneous construction, which grew at rates
of 13.4 and 20.0 percent respectively (Exhibit 11-31).
Valuation of new construction fluctuated widely during the 1991-1999 period. The years 1991, 1994, 1997 and
1999 represented peak years for both residential and commercial construction, while 1992 and 1993 were low
points in tenns of valuation. In fact, while residential construction valuation grew at an average rate of 13.9
percent per year, commercial construction valuation grew by only 1.5 percent per year. The net effect was an
overall average annual increase of 10.5 percent (Exhibit 11-32).
REAL ESTATE VALUES
Assessed Valuation
In 1990, assessed valuation in San Diego County totaled more than 5152.0 billion (expressed in 2000 dollars).
Assessed valuation in Chula Vista contributed to nearly 4.0 percent of this figure, at over $5.9 billion. During the
1990s, assessed valuation in the county grew at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent, while that of Chula Vista
grew at an average annual rate 00.5 percent. By 2000, Chula Vista's share of countywide assessed valuation
had grown. to approximately 4.7 percent, equaling $8.6 billion of the County's nearly $182.0 billion total.
Though assessed valuation per household is lower in Chula Vista than in the County as a whole, it is growing
more rapidly in Chula Vista. The rate of growth in assessed valuation per household in Chula Vista, 1.9 percent,
was more than double that of the county (0.8 percent). Thus, while countywide assessed valuation per household
grew from $171,400 in 1990 to nearly $187,000 in 2000, it grew from $124,000 to nearly $152,000 in Chula
Vista. Exhibit 11-33 presents a comparison of assessed valuation in San Diego County, Chula Vista, Carlsbad,
Escondido, Oceanside, Poway and Santee in 1990 and 2000. Exhibit 11-34 shows assessed valuation per
household in these same areas. Carlsbad has the highest assessed valuation per capita, at $327,000, which is 75.0
percent above the countywide average. Chula Vista had a per capita assessed valuatian per capita of $151 ,989,
approximately 23.0 percent below the countywide average. During the 1990s, assessed valuation per capita grew
rapidly in Chula Vista, averaging 1.9 percent per year. In contrast, assessed valuation per capita countywide
grew at an average of only 0.8 percent per year.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 49
Exhibit 11-31 .- New Construction, Number of Permits
5,000
4,500
4,000 -+-Total Permits
3,500 --- Residential
3,000 -T- Commercial
2,500 -- Miscellaneous
2,000
1,500
1,000 ._-
500
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: City ofChula Vista Building and Housing Department
Exhibit 11-32 .. New Construction, Total Valuation
$600 '
-+-Total \
$500 Valuation'
$400 --- Residential.
I
$300 -T- Commercial' i
$200 I
$100
$-
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: City ofChula Vista Building and Housing Department
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1990, residential land accounted for 74.0 percent of assessed valuation in Chula Vista compared with 72.0
percent for the county as a whole. By 2000, this proportion had grown by 2.0 percent in the county and 4.0
percent in Chula Vista. During that same period, assessed valuation for the commercial and industrial categories
fell by 1.0 percent each, to 15.0 percent and 6.0 percent respectively. At the same time, commercial assessed
valuation in Chula Vista dropped from 15.0 percent to 12.0 percent while industrial assessed valuation decreased
ITam 8.0 percent to 6.0 percent. Figures 1I-35A and 1I-35B display the distribution of assessed valuation
between categories in San Diego County, Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway and Santee in
1990 and 2000.
Residential Market
As of December 2000, there were seven new residential developments offering attached homes in Chula Vista
and more than 50 offering detached single family homes. For attached homes, prices ranged from S 170,000 to
$460,000. The average price was approximately $192,300. Bolero (Shea Homes) offered the smallest floorplan,
at 1,025 square feet, while Creekside offered the largest at 3,700 square feet. Average square footage is
appraximately 1,500. Western Pacific's Antigua offers the lowest price per square foot at S 113, while
_omerstone Communities' Capri offers the highest at $161. Average price per square foot is S127. For
comparison, the countywide median sale price was $214,000 and median price per square foot was $165.
The average price for detached homes, $268,503, is approximately 36.0 percent higher than the average for
attached homes. Prices ranged ITom $213,600 (Bridlewoad, Kaufman and Broad) to $435,000 (Augusta Place,
Topmark Communities). Square footage ranged from 1,304 (Bridlewood) to 3,682 (Belmont Ridge, RWR
Development), with an average of2,249. The average price per square foot is slightly lower than that ofattached
homes at $122. The lowest available price per square foot, $85, is offered by Oakridge (Pacific Coast
Communities) while the highest, $176, is found at Rose Arbor (Pacific Bay Homes). For comparison, the
countywide median sale price was $349,000 and the median price per square foot was $143.
PRoJ"crNo. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 52
Exhibit 11-3SA -- Distribution of Assessed Valuation by Category in
Selected Jurisdictions, 1990
Santee I I
Poway I I I
Oceanside I I
0 Residential
Escondido I I 0 Commercial
II Industrial
0 Other
Carlsbad I I
Chula Vista I I
San Diego I I
County
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: County of San Diego Assessors Office
Exhibit 11-358 -- Distribution of Assessed Valuation by Category
in Selected Jurisdictions. 2000
Santee I I \
Paway I \ I
Oceanside I I \
Escondido I I \
Carlsbad \ I \
Chula Vista I I I
San Diego I I I
County
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0 Other I! Industrial 0 Commercial 0 Residential
Source: County of San Diego Assessors Office
Industrial Land & Buildinl!s
Exhibit 11-36 shows a summary of industrial land sales in Chula Vista that illustrates the types of properties for
sale, price ranges and jurisdictions where sale properties are located. Prices ranged from $2.61 per square foot to
$22.39 per square foot. The average price per square foot was $7.64, slightly higher than the countywide average
of$7.47.
Exhibit 11-37 shows a summary of industrial building sales in Chula Vista. Prices ranged from $20.09 per square
foot to $124.20 per square foot, with an average of$63.96. This average price per square foot was approximately
20 percent below the countywide average of $77.50.
Commercial PropertY Sales
Exhibit II-38 shows a summary of commercial land sales in Chula Vista while Exhibit 11-39 presents
commercial building sales. Price per square foot for land ranged from $12 to $250 with an average of$28.67.
For comparison, price per square foot in the county ranged from $74 to S293 with an average of $33. Price per
square foot for buildings in Chula Vista ranged from $11.70 to S250 with an average of$148. The average for
the county was $137.
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT AREAS
The City of Chula Vista has five redevelopment project areas, as shown in Map 4.
Bavfront Redevelopment Project Area
The Bayfront Redevelopment Plan, adopted in 1974, establishes the policies for redeveloping Chula Vista's
waterfront on San Diego Bay., The Plan's basic objectives include the preservation of marshland, public use and
enjoyment of shoreline areas, and good pedestrian and vehicular access between the Bayfront and areas east of
the freeway. The primary uses to be considered are limited to public recreation, commercial activities such as
hotels, motels and restaurants, and compatible water-related industrial activities. Limited residential development
may also be considered where allowed by State tideland grant provisions.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS SS
bit 11-36 - Industrial land Sales: Chula Vista, 1999-2001
Recording Price
Date Property Description Zip Sale Price SF per SF
12130.99 Industrial Park Site 91910 $ 4,000,000 1,534,613 $ 2.61
0112:'99 IP Zoned Acreage 91911 3,300,000 748,796 4.41
04/15.99 Self Storage Facility Site 91910 1,775,000 79,279 22.39
10/01 99 M Zoned Acreage 91911 393,182 49,658 7.92
12/14199 M Zoned Acreage 91911 500,000 68,389 7.31
04/28/00 IP Zoned Acreage 91911 2,914,500 748,796 3.89
06127/00 Single Tenant Industrial Building Site 91914 855,000 137,214 6.23
09/29 00 IP Zoned Acreage 91911 900,000 84,942 10.60
11101100 M Zoned Open Storage 91911 285,000 83,200 3.43
Source: CoStar Camps
Exhibit 11-37 - Industrial Sales: Chula Vista, 2000-2001
Recording Price Year
Date Property Description Zip Sale Price SF per SF Built
01/31/00 Multi.Tenant Industrial Building 91910 $ 1,200,000 12,740 S 94.19 1985
04/10/00 Multi.Tenant Industrial Building 91911 386,000 19,216 20.09 nla
04/25/00 R&D Building 91910 1,255,000 13,000 96.54 1994
~5.02l00 Multi-Tenant Industrial Building 91911 785,000 13,600 57.72 1975
09.'08/00 Single Tenant Industrial Building 91910 1,285,000 10,346 124.20 1992
09/11/00 Multi-Tenant Industrial Building 91911 1,375,000 30,000 45.83 1982
10/11/00 Warehouse!Distribution 91911 4,400,000 94,014 46.80 nla
10/13/0e Single Tenant Industrial Building 91910 300,000 5,040 59.52 1978
11113/00 Single Tenant Industrial Building 91914 725,000 14,811 48.95 1989
12/15/00 Multi-Tenant Industrial Building 91911 491,650 10,000 49.17 1977
12/29/00 Single Tenant Industrial Building 91911 1,185,000 15,000 79.00 1987
02/21/01 Industrial Park 91911 3,964,000 76,373 51.90 1986
03116101 Single Tenant Industrial Building 91910 950,000 16,500 57.58 1983
Source: CoStar Camps
Exhibit 11-38 -- Commercial Land Sales: Chula Vista, 1999-2001
Recording Price per
Date Property Description City Zip Sale Price SF SF
06/29/99 Restaurant Site Chula Vista 91915 $ 724,945 30,492 $ 23.77
09/27/99 Free Standing Retail Building Site Chula Vista 91910 410,000 84,942 4.83
03/08/00 Supermarket Site Chula Vista 91911 925,000 67,518 13.70
03/23/00 PC Zoned Acreage Chula Vista n/a 269,191 65,776 4.09
08/17/00 3 Building OfficelRetail Site Chula Vista 91910 700,000 7,500 93.33
09/05/00 Shopping Center Site Chula Vista 91911 6,240,000 463,914 13.45
11/15/00 CT Zoned Acreage Chula Vista 91910 1,300,000 27,448 47.36
05/31/01 Gas Station/Car Wash Site Chula Vista 91911 1,254,000 43,560 28.79
Source: CoStar Comps
Exhibit 11-39 -- Commercial Building Sales: Chula Vista, 2000-2001
Recording Price per
Date Property Description City Zip Sale Price SF SF
02/20/01 Office with Street-Level Retail Chula Vista 91910 $ 7,200,000 62,814 $ 114.62
08/08/00 MedicallDental Office Chula Vista 91911 245,800 21,010 11.70
05/08/00 Multi Tenant Low Rise Chula Vista 91910 1,450,000 8,526 170.07
06/29/01 MedicallDentalOffice Chula Vista 91910 1,135,000 12,116 93.68
04/05/01 Single Tenant Low Rise Chula Vista 91910 870,000 4,186 207.84
03/29/00 Single Tenant Low Rise Chula Vista 91910 600,000 2,400 250.00
04/12/01 Multi Tenant Low Rise Chula Vista 91910 450,000 4,392 102.46
06/25/01 Single Tenant Low Rise Chula Vista 91910 375,000 2,623 142.97
02/22/01 Office Condominium Chula Vista 91910 275,000 1,823 150.85
01/11/01 Single Tenant Low Rise Chula Vista 91910 260,000 1,117 232.77
Source: CoStar Camps
./lap 4 - Redevelopment Project Areas
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 58
. . . II
City of Chula Vista
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT AREAS
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e Plan states that, "Retail development which would be directly competitive with existing or proposed sub-
regional and regional shopping center facilities elsewhere in Chula Vista should not be pennitted within this
area." The Plan further states that commercial-recreation should by the primary use. Other uses, such as
residential, office, business services and light industrial exhibiting office-type characteristics, are pennitted where
complementary to commercial-recreation uses. The Plan also has specific recommendations related to circulation,
fonn, and appearance.
Fram an economic development perspective, the Bayside Redevelopment Plan emphasizes the waterfront's role
as a commercial-recreation zone, with retail and office uses as secondary uses so long as they do not compete
with areas in the city that are east of the freeway. Industrial uses are allowed is specific areas, especially water-
oriented industries, but are not emphasized. Overall, economic activity must occur within a dominant public
recreation and open space framework.
Since the plan was first developed, the National Wildlife Refuge was established in the 1980s, the local coastal
plan was amended in the 1990s, a private property owner of a major parcel has proposed a mixed-use residential
d commercial development in the mid bay-front, the Port of San Diego acquired redevelopment property and
adopted a Port Master Plan for the area, and the Port District and City are negotiating with private developers
regarding mixed-use commercial development near the marina.
Southwest Redevelopment Project Area
The Redevelopment Plan for the Southwest Redevelopment Project Area, adopted in 1990, is intended to clean-
up a blighted mixed-use zone. Some of the Plan's economic goals, among other goals, include the promotion of
planned light industrial development within the Main Street Corridor, encouragement of tourism-related uses
such as hotels and restaurants, enhancement and renovation of businesses, stimulation of private-sector
investrr.c~t, removal of impediments to land assembly, better utilization of developable land, development of
safeguards against noise and pollution to enhance the industriaVcommercial community, and creation of jobs for
Chula Vista residents.
The major land uses pennitted include residential of all types, general commercial and commercial recreation
"ses, public and quasi-public uses, vacant land and land used for agricultural purposes and salt production
~urrently in place. Industrial uses allowed include limited light and heavy industrial uses, including
manufacturing, warehousing, wholesaling, mineral extraction and processing. Interim non-confonning uses,
PIfOJECr No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS S9
pending the ultimate development of the land in confonnance with the redevelopment plan, are allowed if they
meet applicable City codes.
Draft projects include various traffic and circulation improvements, sewer and drainage improvements,
community facilities and school improvements, community development programs, and low and moderate-
income housing.
This Project Area Plan is designed to give the Agency powers to remove and rectify blight, and finance needed
public improvements.
Otav Vallev Road Project Area
This plan, adopted in 1983, provides the Redevelopment Agency with the powers to implement redevelopment in
the project area. The Plan specifically states that "this plan does not present a specific plan or establish specific
projects for the redevelopment, rehabilitation, and revitalization of any area within the Project Area, nor does this
Plan present specific proposals in an attempt to solve or alleviate the concems and problems of the community
relating to the Project Area."
The Project Area is intended to develop in accordance with the general plans of the City ofChula Vista (Parcell)
and the County of San Diego (Parcel 2). These land use designations include parks and public open space,
agriculture, general industrial and research and limited industrial within the City ofChula Vista; and impact-
sensitive-parks and open space, intensive agriculture, and service commercial in the County of San Diego.
The Plan intends to alleviate blight, provide improved public infrastructure, and create more marketable parcels.
The Plan specifically cites the existence of a land fill and several auto recycling yards as disincentives for new
development.
The Plan's stated objectives is, "the encouragement, promotion, and assistance in the development and expansion
of local commerce and needed commercial and industrial facilities, increasing local employment prosperity, and
improving the economic climate within the Project Area." The development of well-planned and quality
designed industrial and commercial developments is a related land use objective.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 60
Industrial uses include industrial and industrial park development that contain manufacturing, fabrication,
Jduction and assembly, wholesale and resale distribution uses, technical services and businesses, research and
development, warehousing and processing, and other related compatible uses. Commercial uses include business
offices, professional offices, retail stores and shops, and other office functions. These land uses are intended to
serve regional markets', the entire city, and suITounding communities. They are meant to provide for the
manufacturing, warehousing and distribution of goods, materials, and services for local and regional commerce
and industry, and to provide for businesses, in certain locations, that combine retail sales within their
manufacturing, warehousing or industrial operations. The Project Area also includes areas designated for
agricultural uses.
Town Centre Redevelopment Plan
The Town Centre Plan, adopted in 1976, is the redevelopment plan for the City's Central Business District. As
the Plan states, "The goal of this redevelopment project is to revitalize the Town Centre area as the cammercial-
civic focus of the City." The Plan's objectives include the elimination of blight and environmental deficiencies,
the strengthening of the mercantile posture of Town Centre and its retail trade, the renewal of the Town Centre's
'1hysical plant and land use patterns, restoration of viable land uses and commercial enterprises, attraction of
capital and new business enterprises, beautification, encouragement of middle-income multi-family housing,
provision of transit, and design standards. The Plan also has the objective af establishing the Town Centre as,
"the South Bay's principal center for specialty goods and services."
Finally, the Plan's last stated goals is "the reorientation of the people ofChula Vista to their core area, and the
resultant promotion of a sense of 'tawness'.
The PIc'.. calls for a mixture of commercial uses, including, but not limited to retail, office, hotel, service,
entertair.:nent, educational, and auxiliary uses in the "central commercial" area. The Agency may allow
residenbl uses in the central commercial area if certain conditions are met.
The Plan also has designated residential areas that allow residential, professional, and administrative offices.
Housing diversity is encouraged to accommodate all economic segments.
"ublic and quasi-public facilities are pennitted to expand, and the Agency may authorize the private use of air
rights over public rights-of-way.
PROJlfCT No. 1:;1879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYStS 61
While the Plan does not detail projects or plans within the Project Area, it is one of the more specific
redevelopment plans regarding its vision for the Project Area - to re-establish the Town Center as Chula Vista's
civic and commercial center.
Town Centre No.2 Project Area
This redevelopment plan was first adopted in 1978, and amended in 1987,1988, and 1994. It was established
originally to assist with the renovation ofChula Vista Center. It's stated goal is to "revitalize the Town Centre
No. II Project Area as the principal regional shopping center of the South Bay." It has since been expanded to
assist the new Walmart Center, the City's existing Corporate Yard, and institutional land uses.
In addition to the objectives of eliminating blight and attracting investment that are stated in the Town Centre
Redevelopment Project Area, the Town Centre II Plan has the added objectives of "the fostering of cooperation
between the Town Centre No. II Project Area and the Chula Vista Town Centre Project Area (No.1), and the
protection of the goals, objectives, and economic resurgence of the latter;" and, "the continuing promotion of
Subarea 1 <?fthe Chula Vista Town Center (No. I) Project Area, as the principal center of specialty-goods
purveyance in the South Bay Subregion.
While the Plan is consistent with other City economic policies, its fundamental objective to become the principal
regional shopping center of the South Bay needs to be revisited given long-term plans for Otay Ranch's Eastern
Urban Center, the proposed waterfront developments, and emerging regional competition.
OTHER ECONOMIC INCENTIVE PROGRAMS
Beside the City's redevelopment project areas, the City of Chula Vista has the following economic development
incentive programs:
. Industrial Development Bonds
. Chula Vista Direct Loans/Loan Guarantees
. Personal Property Tax Rebates
. State of California Enterprise Zone
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 62
SALH TAX REVENUES TRENDS
Exhibit 11-40 presents sales tax revenues in Chula Vista during 1990,1995 and 1999. The total sales tax revenue
during 1990 were $1.3 billion, with $1.1 billion coming from retail sales. In terms of per capita sales, the largest
proportions in 1990 were in the general merchandise and the eating and drinking group. In 1995 these figures
dropped significantly, with total sales dropping by almost $170 million and per capita sales dropping by almost
$2,000 (more than 20 percent). The drop in sales can be attributed to the Mexican currency devaluation and
economic crisis in 1994. The drastic impact on the Chula Vista retail sector is evidence of a strong relationship
between the City's retail activity and the Mexican market. Per capita sales tax revenue in 1999 rose by more than
4.0 percent since 1995, but still had not reached the levels of the early 90s. Exhibit 11-41 shows the change in
per capita retail sales in the City ofChula Vista during 1990 and 1999.
Chula Vista Center is the one major regional center in the city. Chula Vista Center is a 900,000-square-foot
super-regional shopping center that is located on 555 Broadway in Chula Vista. The shopping center opened in
1962 and was expanded in 1994. The primary anchors are JC Penney, Macys, Mervyn's, Sears and a Cinema
Star 10-screen theater. Additionally, there are more than 100 retail stores. The primary market includes the
'ommunities ofChula Vista, Otay Mesa, San Ysidro, and National City, with additional support from Mexico.
Total taxable retail sales in 1999 reached $1.24 billion,
Sales Tax Revenue in Redevelonment Project Areas
Over the last two years, the distribution of sales tax revenue has varied widely amang the five redevelopment
project areas. The Southwest project area generates the most sales tax ($3.9 million in the first quarter of 2001)
followed by Town Center II (nearly $1.9 million in the first quarter of 2001). The other three areas generate far
less, ranging from $244,000 (Olay Valley) to $148,000 (Bayfront). While overall sales tax revenue in these
project areas has grown at a compound annual grawth rate of 6.0 percent per year since 1999, the BaYITont and
Town C~nter I project areas experienced a contraction. Exhibit 11-42 presents quarterly project area sales tax
revenues by category from 1999 through the first quarter of 2001. Exhibit 11-43 shows the distribution of flfSt
quarter 2001 sales tax revenue by category in each area. Town Center II relies heavily on sales in the general
retail category, with 91.0 percent of revenue attributable to this category. Town Center I relies primarily on food
products (48.0 percent) and general retail (43.0 percent). The remaining project areas are more diversified.
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 63
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Exhibit 1\.43 - Distribution of Redevelopment Project Area Sales Tax Revenue by Category, 1 st
Qtr. ZOO1
Bayfront Business to
Business
Transportation 14%
37%
General Retail
1%
Otay Valley
Transportation
Miscellaneous 23%
0%
General Retail
11% \
~ Business to
Construction Business
4% 59%
! Southwest
Construction
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Miscellaneous
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50%
Exhibit 11-43 -. Distribution of Redevelopment Project Area Sales Tax Revenue by Category. 1st
Qtr. 2001 (Continued)
Miscellaneous
1%
Construction
1%
ral Retail
43% Food Produ.
48%
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Business
0%
Food Products
6%
Miscellaneous
1%
General Retail
91%
""SCAl INDICATORS
Exhibit II-44 shows General Fund sources and uses by category in fiscal year 1990-1991 compared with 2000-
2001, expressed in constant Year 2000 dollars. The General Fund budget, in real tenns adjusted for inflation,
has grO\vn ITom $57.8 million in FY1990-91 (in Year 2000 dollars) to $88.2 million in FY2000-01, for a real
annual growth rate of 4.3 percent. Overall, the City's General Fund expenditures per capita, in real tenns adjusted
for inflation, has grown ITom $427 in 1990 to $506 in 2000, for a 1.7 percent real annual growth rate.
Sales tax, the largest source of General Fund revenues has grown at an average of 0.9 percent per year, in real
tenns, but its proportion of revenues has declined from 28.1 percent in 1990 to 20.1 percent in 2000. Revenues
from property tax actually declined at an average rate of 0.6 percent per year in real tenns, due to the State of
California's expropriation of property tax revenues for the state budget, now comprising just over 12.0 percent of
revenues, down from nearly 20.0 percent in 1990. The fastest growing source of revenues is Charges for
Services, which has grown at an average rate of 14.2 percent per year since 1990, and now comprises over 13.0
percent of revenues.
",xhibit 11-45 presents trends in transient occupancy tax revenue (in year 2000 dollars). Though revenue steadily
declined during the first half of the decade, it grew at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent between 1995 and
2000. This growth continued to occur even after the tax was raised from 8.0 percent to 10.0 percent in April of
1995.
The City of Chula Vista's Gross Tax Increment Financing (TIF) is shown in Exhibit II-46 and 11-47. The
Bayfront accounts for the largest share ofTIF (39.0 percent), followed by Town Center I (17.0 percent), Town
Center II and Southwest (16.0 percent each) and Otay Valley (12.0 percent).
CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM
Several major road projects have been programmed into the Capital Improvements Program, Five Year Plan for
FY 2001/02 through FY 2005/06. Exhibit 11-48 displays the budget allocatians and sources for these projects.
PROJT!CTNo.13879 ECONOM'C BAST! ANALYSIS 69
Exhibit 11-44 - General Fund Expenditures by Function, and General Fund Revenue Sources
(Expressed in Y2000 Dollars)
General Fund Expenditures By Share of General Share of General Total %
Function FY 1990-1991 FY 2000-2001 Fund (1990-91) Fund (2000-01) Change CAGR'
Employee Services $ 44,716,319 $ 66,079,004 77.4% 74.9% 47.8% 4.0%
Supplies and Services 11,787,058 15,640,754 20.4% 17.7% 32.7% 2.9%
Oilier Expenses -- 816,853 -- 0.9% -- --
Capital Outlay 622,344 1,175,313 1.1% 1.3% 88.9% 6.6%
Debt Servicefl'ransfers Out 626,350 4,485,869 1.1% 5.1% 616.2% 21.8%
Total $ 57,752,072 $ 88,197,793 100.0% 100.0% 52.7% 4.3%
General Fund Expenditures by
Category
Public Safety $ 25,353,159 $ 34,926,326 43.90% 39.60% 37.8% 3.3%
Development and Maintenance 16,805,853 27,164,920 29.10% 30.80% 61.6% 4.9%
Cultu.. and Leisure 8,662,811 10,230,944 15.00% 11.60% 18.1% 1.7%
Legislative and Administrative 6,930,249 15,875,603 12.00% 18.00% 129.1% 8.6%
Total S 57,752,072 $ 88,197,793 -- -- -- --
General Fund Revenues by Sources
Sales Tax 15,408,556 $ 17,727,756 28.10% 20.10% 15.1% 1.4%
Property Tax 10,910,665 10,848,329 19.90% 12.30% -0.6% -0.1%
Revenue from Oilier Agencies 7,235,996 14,552,636 13.20% 16.50% 101.1% 7.2%
Oilier Revenue 7,898,153 17,463,163 14.00% 19.80% 121.1% 8.3%
OilierT",es 7,564,Q92 12,347,691 13.80% 14.00% 63.2% 5.0%
Cbarges for Services 2,958,825 11,730,306 5.40% 13.30% 296.5% 14.8%
Licenses and Permits 2,851,448 3,527,912 5.20% 4.00% 23.7% 2.2%
Transfers In
Total $ 59,653,720 $ 88,197,793 -- -- -- --
'Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: City ofChula Vista Department of Budget and Analysis and Economics Research Associates
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Exhibit 11-46 - City of Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency Gross Tax Increment
(Inflation Adjusted Y2000 Dollars)
1990 1995 20011 CAGR 1990 - 2001 1
Bayfront $2,753,911 $2,469,859 $2,956,473 0.6%
Town Center I 1,631,971 1,136,900 1,208,587 -2.7%
atay Valley 814,424 947,697 927,206 1.2%
Town Center II 756,793 1,079,304 1,274,344 4.9%
Southwest nJa 427,647 1,223,633 16.2%
Total 5,957,098 6,061,408 7,590,243 2.2%
1200 I dollars, not adjusted for Inflation
2 CAGR for Southwest Redevelopment Area calculated from 1995-2000
Source: City of Chula Vista Redevelopment Agency
Exhibit 11-47 -- Distribution of Gross Tax
Increment by Redevelopment Area (2001)
Southwest
16% "
Town Center II
17%
Source: City ofChula Vista Redevelopment Agency
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. Olympic Parkway/I-805 Interchange-ramp widening, street widening, utility relocation, and
installation of sound walls.
. Palomar Stre'etlI-805 Interchange Improvements-construction of a half diamond interchange on 1-
805 with ramps to and from the north.
. Olympic Parkway from Brandywine Avenue to Hunte Parkway-Olympic Parkway will be
extended eastward to accammodate increasing traffic volume due to development. This project is
primarily financed through developer financed assessment districts or directly by developers. The
amount budgeted in the riP covers city-related costs only, such as environmental, plan checking and
inspection, land acquisition and project management.
. Main Street Pavement Rehabilitation-a two-inch pavement overlay and AC Benn will be applied to
a section of Main Street that has been deteriorated by high vehicle and truck traffic volumes.
. Olympic Parkway, Oleander to Brandywine Avenue-this stretch of Olympic Parkway will be
widened to a six lane prime arterial with a raised median.
. Palomar Street Improvements from 1-5 to Industrial-This has become one of the most important
entrances to the city, but the pavement is badly worn. The project includes pavement rehabilitation, the
addition of stonn drains and concrete curbs, gutters, sidewalks, street lights, landscaping, and raised
medians.
. Willow Street Bridge Replacement/Widening-the Willow Street bridge, originally built in 1940, will
be replaced with a concrete bridge. The new bridge will add bicycle lanes in both directions and
sidewalks on both sides.
COST OF DO1NG BUS1NESS IN CHULA V1STA
This section analyzes the cost of doing business in Chula Vista compared with Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside,
and Poway. This comparison utilizes data pravided in the 1999 Kosmont Cost of Doing Business Survey
(Southern California Region). In 1999, Kosmant & Associates rated Cbula Vista one of Califamia's top 13
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS 74
locatians for manufacturing because it taxes manufacturers at only IflOOth of \.0 percent and rates "low cost"
Jed on key local tax rates including electrical and telephone user taxes and property taxes. Chula Vista was
also rated one of 25 California communities most active in business subsidy deals, Disposition and Development
Agreements, Owner Participation Agreements and similar arrangements.
Exhibit II-49 shows a comparison of taxes per $1,000 for each business activity. Note that the City of Po way
charges a flat rate of only $3.00 per year. With the exception of Po way, Chula Vista charges the lowest rates in
all business categories except Professional Office. However, of the sample group shown, Chula Vista's tax rate
of $.053 per $1,000 for Professional Office is the highest. Tax rates in Chula Vista range ITom $0.53 for
Professional office to $0.04 for manufacturing. In comparison, the highest business tax rates in are found in
Oceanside, ranging from $0.45 ta $0.46 per $1,000.
Exhibit II-50 presents a comparison of ad valorem property tax, county sales tax, transient occupancy tax (TOT),
and documentary transfer tax. Of the group shown, Chula Vista provides the lowest property tax rate, 1.01016
percent, while Escandido charges the highest at 1.5878 percent. The majority of jurisdictions shown collect a
10.0 percent transient occupancy tax excpet Poway which collects 8.0 percent. Finally, Chula Vista is the only
risdiction of those named above that imposes Utility User Taxes. Chula Vista imposes a 5.0 percent tax on
phone service, $0.0025 per kilowatt on electricity, and $0.00919 per thenn on gas (not shown on table).
Planning Fees
Exhibit II-51 shows a comparison of planning fees in Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, and Poway.
In all categories, planning fees imposed by the City of Chula Vista are comparable with those assessed by the
other jurisdictions included in this comparison.
Development Impact Fees
Exhibit II-52 presents a comparison of development impact/exaction fees in Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido,
Oceanside, and Poway.
PROJI!CT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS 75
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DLANNED AND PROPOSED PROJECTS
Chula Vista is in a dynamic situation as developers begin to identify South County as the emerging growth sub-
region for the next decade.
1. Mid-Bayfront is a mixed-use development proposed along San Diego Bay just north of the Chula Vista
Yacht Harbor on 127 acres. The proposed Mid Bayfront development may include resort,
entertainment/retail, officelR&D, recreational, and residential use.
2. Gateway Chula Vista is a 332,000-square-foot mixed-commercial/office complex under construction at the
foot of Third Avenue and H Street within the City's Town Center I Redevelopment Project Area. The
Gateway project is envisioned as a southern entry or 'gateway' to the historic Chula Vista Downtown area.
The proposed develapment will include three class A office structures, and a four-story parking structure on a
4.5-acre site. Development costs are estimated to be $57 million. The Gateway project will be developed in
three phases, with the first phase completed by 2002. The Gateway project will include a retail promenade
and a high quality restaurant.
3. Port of San Diego Bayside Commercial Development: The Port of San Diego has selected the Lennar
Development Company to develop a mixed-use project on a 141-acre water front property adjacent to the
Chula Vista Marina. The project may potentially include retail, entertainment, restaurants, hotel, theme park,
limited office uses, flexible R&D space, and indoor public uses (museum/aquarium). Taubman Companies
has proposed a 1 million square foot specialty regional shopping center as an anchor use.
4. Other Planned and Proposed Developments include a number of power centers and mixed-use centers in
Clay Ranch and EastLake. Several of the planned developments are listed below. It should be noted that the
following developments are in the preliminary planning stages.
. EastLake Villar:e Center North consists of 60 acres of commercially zaned land north of Otay Lakes
Raad. The proposed development will include a Target and Home Depot anchored commercial center.
The project timeline is estimated to be 1 ta 2 years.
PRO'~CT No. 73879 ECONOMIC BAS~ ANALYSIS 79
. SR-125 Business Center consists ot 30 acres of professional office and administrative zoned land south
ofOtay Lakes Road and west of the proposed SR-125. Projected timeline is approximately 2 to 5 years.
. Ea5tLake Freewav Commercial consists of~ 50 acres of commercially zoned land north of Olympic
Parkway that is anticipated to be developed as a power center anchored by large discount and related
ancillary retail and entertainment uses. Projected timeline is approximately 2 to 5 years.
. Olav Ranch Freewav Commercial consists of 106 acres of freeway commercial zoned land south of
Olympic Parkway. The anticipated development includes a 'big box' retailers and related retail and
entertainment uses. The development timeline is estimated to be 2 to 5 years.
. The Ea51em Urban Center (EUC) is located south of Birch Road in Otay Ranch. The EUC consists of
333 acres and is anticipated to include regional serving retail, offices, urban entertainment, dining, and
residential uses. The development timeline for this project is estimated to be 5 to 10 years.
. Univer5ity Camolls is an area of land that the City is in the process of assembling south of the EUC to
bid for a future University of California campus.
REGIONAL PROJECTS THAT MAY AFFECTCHUlA VISTA
Finally, the following are major planned and proposed projects of regional importance that may affect Chula
Vista's economic development capacity:
. SRl25 completion
. 1-905 completion
. Rodriguez Airport expansion and Otay Mesa terminal
. San Ysidro border crossing and circulation improvements
. Power plant redevelopment.
. International Gateway of the Americas development
. Lindbergh Field expansion
. San Diego Convention Center expansion
. The "NAFT A Train"
PROJECT No. ~ 38 79 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 80
. Border Zone Infrastructure Financing District
Regional Technology Park
. Cross-border Tenninal
. Third border crossing at East Otay
.
PROJECT No. 13B79 ECONOMIC BASI! ANALYSIS B1
Exhibit A-I: San Diego CountyJUnites State. Economic Grawth, Praportionol Shift & Differential Shift Factors
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Oil"""""""i", " 0 .100" 270.001 '68.", -", 0.1347 ".1391 ".99SO
N."""""'mio<nl'C""",.iI & 8U) '82 '" -", ".m ".m ,% 0.1347 ".1125 ".0399
C.""""".. 46,476 ",01' ,,% 4.'00.006 '~"~47 23', 0.1347 0.0903 ".0410
""""""""""."",",,','lOm I~IS' 14.728 "', 1."'."3 IJ74.70' I". 0.1347 -O.OOIS 0.0788
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',,",,"""""""'" 30.680 35J" IS" '.70'.'" 3."'.4" "./, 0.1347 0.1386 -0."21
"m.'""",., I".'" "'J" -3% ".162.480 Il632.'" 3" 0.1347 -0.1088 -0.""
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""'m-""""""'Ii.d"lria ','" '.'" ,..., 373.'20 399J" ,.., 0.1347 -0.06" 0""
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1=lu"""""""p~,u"""i< '.06' '.633 "" 331.427 "'.196 3W, 0.1347 D."" -0.2228
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W""'=P'""'" "4 '" -22" 163J14 178JII '" 0.1347 -0.0,," -0.3125
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R"..I""" "'.009 196.1" ,% 19.'72.22' 32.002.'" "", 0.1'" -0.0162 -0.0771
B"Id"I""',",.&.,",rn"FPIi~ '.737 '.1" 3" "'.1" "'.86' 25" 0.174' 0.1160 -0.""
C"""""""""'i",..,,,, 17.173 ".'" ,% '.0".993 ~",.'" "'" 0.1347 0..,30 -0.1'"
,""'..... ".m ".674 ,"" 3.0"J79 3.162.13' "', 0.1347 -0.111' -0.0265
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A"",I""_""" 'I.'" IIJ79 -", 1.167.SI' 1.0"~60 .,." 0.1347 -0.2060 0.0170
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N""""¡""""tiNti.~ 8.911 1.'" -"" "'.'06 '66.m '"" 0.1347 0.1068 -0."37
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H,lOi,.,"",~u"'~~rnl,ffi'a '.m ~O" ...% 266J74 269J" 1% 0.1347 -0."33 -0."09
..""'" 300~13 354,"8 18% 3O."3~" 37J".07' ,,% 0.1347 0.0848 -0.03"
H"'"""_I..,i",IK~ 23J" ".'" r" '~Ol,'" 1.'96.'" 13', 0.1347 -0.0048 -0.""
PmonoJ,.".;", II.'" 11,497 ..." IJ32J" IJ87.I06 .., 0.1347 -0.0904 -0.0824
B"'.a'"",,~ 61.'" 86~" ,,% 'J"J32 8.017~J9 '0% 0.1347 0.3"0 -0.09"
A"""",.=.i....~d""8a IOJ" ".'" 23% 860.'" 1.107.'" "" 0.1347 o.lm -0.0574
'1i~1""~~",,,i"'M'a 3JS4 3,8" IS% 3",02' 42JJO' 10'" 0.1347 -0.0319 0.0723
M,...,i""" ',m 3.663 ,,% 462.'" "'.'" ',"" 0.1347 0.0672 0.022'
Am_rn,&=","""i,~ 11."0 1S,199 52% 1.125,023 1.466,346 30% 0.1347 0.1687 0.2208
H"'~"",,~ SlJ32 82~49 ,% '.126."7 IIJ".141 17% 0.1347 0.0320 -O.14S1
""""""a 10.822 '.'" -I,"" "1.908 "'.998 2% 0.1341 ".1136 ".1166
-""""'¡,a 13.068 13.'" ,., 1."8.701 ',183.438 14', 0.1347 0.0033 ".0874
""""""" "JJ9 ISJ62 ,'" 1."'JI7 2,246,1" ,,% 0.1341 0.0141 0.04"
,,_...""'I.""'I'8ial.,",~, 1.832 2J" 27% ".179 90.117 "., 0.1341 0."4' ".0'"
M,"""""" ""'=i,~ 14.'" 17.798 ,,% 2.040,0" 'J07~86 .., 0.134' -0.0"4 0.10"
EopMUi,I&-,=rnl"..i", 33.753 "J" 25% 2.'19,303 3.ISlJ53 21% 0.1347 0.0799 0.0310
Smri.... ,.... "0 1,063 "., "JJ1 99~" 33% 0.1341 0.1921 0.0900
U~""","'_li",",~. 441 474 7% ".167 34J" -33% 0.1347 -0.4639 0.-
"OTAL 821,348 ....", 10% 92,800,870 10'-"'.123 13% 0.1347 0.0000 -O.03OS
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Exhibit A.2 -Location of Chula Vista Firms by Sector and Firm Size
PROJECT No. 13879 ECONOMIC BAS" ANALYSIS A -2
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" MEXICO MARKET ANAL YSIS
Chula Vista Business Survey Sample Statistics, July 19,2001
Presented by the Social and Behavioral Research Institute (SBRI) at California State
University, San Marcos
Survey Procedure
Telephone interviewing commenced on July 19, 2001 and was concluded on July 24,
2001. Four hundred thirty-eight interviews were collected with owners or managers of businesses
in the city of Chula Vista, Califamia. Interviews averaged 3 minutes in length.
All telephone calls were made from the SBRl Survey Lab; located in Suite 140 of the San
Marcas City Hall, near the CSUSM campus. Telephone calls were generally placed ITom 9:00
a.m. to 5:00 p.m., Monday through Thursday and 9;00am to 4:30pm Friday. All telephone calls
were made under the guidance of SBRl supervisory staff. SBRl's supervisary staff canducted on-
line monitoring of survey calls throughout the project, bath to verifY the validity of the calls and
for quality control purposes. A total of2,329 telephone calls were made during the process of the
prajecl A Response Rate of 42.18% (AAPOR RR4) and a Cooperation Rate of99.55% (AAPOR
COOP4) were achieved for the telephone survey. The Response Rate represents the propartian
af all possible business telephone numbers called that completed an interview. The Cooperation
Rate represents the proportion of confmned business contacts that completed an interview.
Survey Results
Results for the Chula Vista Business Survey were generated ITom the responses of
business owners or managers who answered questions about the nature of business with Mexico.
Four or five questions were asked of the respondents abaut how their business interacts with
custamers and suppliers from Mexico. The results are grouped by Standard Industrial
Classification Code (SIC) and the mean is used ta demonstrate the average percentage respanse,
for each category.
.~
, -
Percentage of Sales to Mexican National Buyers
Results ITom the table, Percentage of Sales to Mexican National Buyers, show that of the
410 respondents who answered the question, on average, 23.45 percent of business sales are
conducted with Mexican National Buyers. The responses range !Tom a mean of .33% for the
agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector to a mean of 34.03% for the retail sector.
Report
Perœntage e Mexican National Buyers
Standard Industrial Ctassilication Mean N
Agriculture, Foresby, and FIShing .33 3
ConstnJction 10.42 12
Manufacturing 7.43 35
Transportation and Public Z2
Ublffies
Wholesale Trade 42
Retail Trade 117
Rnance, Insurance and Real 15.34 41
Estate ~
Services 138
Total 410
Source of Information for Percentage Estimate 23.45
The following table shows the percentage of businesses that used a customer list,
infonnal survey of customers, personal guess or estimate, or other source to generate the
Standard Industrial ClassIfication. SOUTU of Infonnation for Percentage estimate Crosstabulatlon
% within Standard Indusbiol Oassffication
Source of Information '0< Perœntage Estimate
Informal Personal
survey of guess or
Customer fist customers estimate Other Total
Standard Agriculture, Foresby, 66.7% 33.3% 100.0%
Industrial and Fishing
Classification Construction 76.9% 23.1% 100.0%
Manufacturing 37.1% 60.0% 2.9% 100.0%
Transportation and 18.2% 68.2% 13.6% 100.0%
Public UtHities
Wholesale Trade 16.7% 7.1% 64.3% 11.9% 100.0%
Retail Trade 13.3% 5.8% 76.7% 4.2% 100.0%
....J. Rnance, Insurance
end Real Estate 19.0% 64.3% 16.7% 100.0%
Services 15.9% 5.1% ~ 5.8% 100.0%
Total 15.9% 4.1% 8.0% 100.0%
---..
,
percentage estimate of sales to Mexican Nationals, as grouped by SIC Code. Nearly three-fourths
(71.1%) of the businesses used a personal guess or estimate as their source for the percentage
estimate. Of the remaining quarter of businesses surveyed, 16.9% used a customer list, 4.1 %
used an informal survey of customers and 8.0% used other sources to generate the percentage
estimate o( sales to Mexican Nationals.
Of those businesses that used a personal guess ar estimate, construction and retail trade had the
highest percentage (76.9% and 76.7%, respectively), while manufacturing had the lowest
(60.0%). Of those businesses that used a customer list ta generate an estimate, businesses in
manufacturing ranked the highest (37.1 %) and retail trade ranked the lowest (13.3%). Neither the
sector of agriculture, forestry, and fishing, ar constructian used a custamer list or informal survey
of customers to generate a percentage estimate. Only a small number of businesses (4.1 %) used
an informal survey of customers, namely those businesses in whalesale trade, retail trade and
services.
Percentage of Supplies Purchased that Come From Vendors Located in Mexico
The results ITom the following table, Percentage of Supplies Purchased that Come From
Vendors Located in Mexico, shows that of the 425 respondents who answered the questian, an
average of 2.26 percent of supplies are purchased from vendors located in Mexico. The
responses range ITom a mean of 0% for the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectar to a mean af
6.97% for the manufacturing sector.
Roport
Porcontago of SuppUes Pun:hased That Come From Vendors
located In Mexic:o
Standan:llndustrial Classification Mean N
Agricullu,e. Fo..sby, and Foshing .00 2
ConslnJction .36 14
Manuracturing e 37
T..nsportation and Public
Utilities 1.10 21
Wholesale T..de 4.91 43
RotaD T..de 3.33 118
F"",nco, Insu..nee and Real .43 47
Estato
./
SeMceS .36 143
Total § 425
,. "'
Percentage of Employees That Commute to Work From Mexico
Results from the table, Percentage of Employees That Commute to Work From Mexico,
show that of the 428 businesses surveyed, an average of 10.24 percent of employees commute to
work from Mexico. The responses range ITom a mean of 3.48% for the finance sector to a mean
of23.33% for the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector.
Report
Percentage of Employees That Commute to Work From Mexico
Standard Industrial Classification Mean N ~
Agriculture. Forestry, and Fishing 23.33 3 we rvr{
Construction 12.54 13 LtJ~ --tLJ.A.¿
Manufacturing e 36
Transportation and Public 6.50 20
Utilities
Wholesale Trade 9.23 43
Retail Trade 13.66 124
Finance. Insurance and Real 3.48 46
Estate
Services 7.14 143
Total e 428
Businesses Affiliated With a Maquiladora
Results of the fmal question, asked only of manufacturing and wholesale trade
businesses, show an average of 13.9% affiliation with a maquiladora. Of those businesses
affiliated with a maquiladora, there is near equal distribution between the sectars of
manufacturing (13.5%) and wholesale trade (14.3%).
Standard Industrial ClassfficaUon' Whether Business Has an Affinatlon
With a Maquiladora CrosstabulaUon
% w;thln Standard Industrial Classification
Whether Business Has an
Affiliation WIth a
Maquiladora
No Ves Total
Standard Industrial Manufacturing 86.5% 13.5% 100.0%
Classification Wholesale Trade 85.7% 14.3% 100.0%
Total 88.1% e 100.0%
"-'
lIB
Economics Research Associates
DRAFT MEMORANDUM
TO: Cheryl Dye
City ofChula Vista
FROM: Bill Anderson
Vice President
Economics Research Associates
DATE: October 10,2001
RE: Comments from the Retail & Mexico Focus Group Meeting
Here is a summary of the comments at the Focus Group Meeting with Chula Vista
retailers regarding the Mexican market.
Why Mexican retailers are not more competitive:
. Mexican department store retailers get many of their products ITom U.S. distributors.
They tend to get the popular merchandise after American retailers, when the products
are not as fashionable.
. In the past, Mexican department stores did not have to offer the same quality
products to compete, because Mexican shoppers had less money and opportunities to
cross into the United States to shop. As Mexican wages and buying power has
grown, more Mexican consumers can shop in the U.S., which makes it more
competitive for Mexican department stores.
. Ironically, many fashion products are manufactured at maquiladoras in Mexico, but
are sent to U.s. distributors before they are sent to Mexican department stores.
. Even U.S. chains with stores in Tijuana do not offer the same or equal quality goods.
One chain also found that Mexican shoppers still desired to shop in the U.S. outlet,
despite the availability af a store in Tijuana, because of be tier selection and prices.
. Mexican department stores have considered locations in the U.S., but their decision-
making processes are slower and it is difficult for them to compete in the U.S.
market, even in Hispanic communities. Also, the profit margins are higher in
Mexico.
9645" Avenue. Suite 214, san Diego, CA 92101
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Trends:
. Four years ago, the Mexican middle class was small. Now there is a growing
Mexican middle class with regular incomes, so sales in Chula Vista stores are up.
. Appliances and electronics are especially popular.
. Children's and junior's clothing, and shoes are also popular.
. It is estimated that approximately 35%-50% of sales is to Mexicans.
. All of the store managers said that their Chula Vista stores are among the better
perfonning stores in their chains, in tenus of sales growth and volume per square
foot.
. Mexicans and growth in the South County market are causing the growth.
Characteristics of Mexican shoppers:
. Products are purchased for personal consumption, families, neighbors, and to resell in
Mexico.
. Mexican shoppers tend to come on weekends and evenings, particularly Sundays,
with the family. They combine food, entertainment, and shopping.
. Even lower-income Mexicans will try to come to the U.S. to shop. They often are
transient - come to Tijuana for 9 months then go home to the interior. They make a
shopping trip to bring goods to their village that they cannot get at home.
. Expenditure per transaction is less than at other stores within the chain that have
similar total sales volume.
. There may be six people in line from the same group, but only one is shopping.
. Mexican shoppers want more quality places to eat, but not Mexican food.
. Mexican shoppers are very conscious of brand names.
. Mexican families shop on a monthly basis and buy large quantities.
. Mexicans are limited to $50 per person or $400 per month without paying duty.
Duty is 18% of the difference between the price and the limit. Duty only applies to
new goods, so shoppers often take the products they purchase out of the packaging to
make them look used so they do not have to declare. People use to bribe officials to
avoid declarations, but the Government has improved enforcement and are reduced
corruption, so people now must comply or pay a significant penalty.
. Second and third generation Mexican-Americans have shopping characteristics that
are more similar to the average American - tend to look for bargains.
Workers from Mexico:
. Approximately 10 percent of workers live in Mexico. Among those who live in
Mexico, it is guessed that 75 percent are Mexicannationals, and 25 percent are U.S.
citizens who live in Mexico.
2
. Concentrate on providing quality shopping experiences for everyone and Mexican
buyers will follow. Do not design to target Mexicans specifically.
. Offer more services.
. Improve the Broadway corridor - beautification, code enforcement, uses.
. Create Downtown Chula Vista as a destination, a smaller version of Gaslamp and
stores that stay open at night.
. Bring a quality hotel and conference facility to Chula Vista.
. Enhance Chula Vista Center's visibility ITom the ITeeway.
Other Issues
. Chula Vista Center is perceived as a center that primarily caters to Mexicans. There
is a desire to broaden the center's appeal to non-Mexicans as well, especially the new
residents in Eastern Chula Vista.
. The major stores do not provide credit unless the shopper has a u.s. address and
Social Security number. The major stores need to be more flexible and offer credit to
Mexicans. One major chain that use to have a store in Tijuana said that Mexicans
had the lowest default rate among their shoppers.
. Income is less of a determinant to come across the border to shop than eligibility. A
crossing card or Laser Visa allows Mexicans who live in the border area to cross
everyday, within 25 miles of the border. Passports have to be obtained in Juarez.
. Mexico is risky, but it is a big market and worth the risk.
. Although South County is vulnerable to peso devaluation, South County also benefits
from peso appreciation relative to the dollar. Most people expect that the peso will
improve with NAFTA and President Fox. Mexican dollar reserves and direct
investment are growing, and the U.S. is helping the Mexican economy improve to
help control immigration.
. There is some near term risk that the Tijuana economy is hurting do to layoffs in the
maquiladora industries.
. Chula Vista needs more places for Mexican shoppers and American shoppers to eat
and entertain to compete with Plaza Bonita.
. Some retailers still have vestiges of prejudice, even though the market is strongly
Mexican and Hispanic American. White-owned businesses need to be more aware of
the Mexican market and other ethnic groups. Fourteen languages are spoken at
Sears.
. Mexican and non-Mexican shoppers mix well, although it was noted that some white
shoppers feel uncomfortable in an environment where they are the minority.
. When Montgomery Wards closed in Plaza Bonita, more African-Americans came to
Chula Vista.
4
. The count of workers who live in Mexico may be understated since some employees
do not want it known that they live in Mexico; they may use a relative's or friend's
address in the U.S. as their place of residence.
. Impact of September 11th:
. Sales are off significantly, ITom 3 to 1 I percent in September, even though sales were
increasing prior to September I I tho October will be worse because shoppers cannot
get across the border.
. Department stores in Tijuana have done better since September I I th since Mexican
shoppers must stay closer ta home.
. Mexican and Mexican-Americans on both sides of the border have ITiendships and
family connections, so they help each other out. As the border crossing becomes less
convenient, many Mexicans stay with family or friends in the U.S. to get to work.
. It's anticipated that if it becomes more difficult to cross the border, Mexicans will
cross less frequently to shop, but perhaps stay longer and buy more when they do
cross to shop.
U.S. Competition:
. The main competitor for Mexican shoppers is Fashion Valley, particularly for the
higher-end consumer, but also for most middle-class Mexican shoppers. Fashion
Valley offers more choice, entertainment, and dining. Eastern Chula Vista shoppers
go to Fashion Valley.
. The Gateway of the Americas project may provide competition, but less so if it
perceived as an "off-price" or "outlet" center.
. Plaza Bonita caters to a different clientele than Chula Vista Center - more Asians and
African Americans, some gang activities. Chula Vista Center is more upscale
because of Macy's. However, Plaza Bonita is getting ready to expand and it offers
more food services. Outback Restaurant went to Plaza Bonita when it should have
gone to Chula Vista Center. Until some new shopping is built in Eastern Chula
Vista, Plaza Bonita, after it expands, may penetrate the Eastern Chula Vista market
more than Chula Vista Center does.
. Power centers definitely compete with Chula Vista Center.
Marketing:
. Chula Vista's major retailers market via the "Blue Bag" that is distributed to Tijuana
households. The approach needs to be updated.
Things the City can do:
. Add quality restaurants.
. Improve the Broadway corridor.
3
. There is definitely an East/West market in Chula Vista. It is challenging for Chula
Vista Center to attract shoppers from Eastern Chula Vista. Eastern Chula Vista could
support another regional center to serve the east, while Chula Vista Center serves the
west. Department stores are interested in Eastern Chula Vista Center.
. In-line retailing and services in Chula Vista Center could be improved with a better
tenant mix, restaurants, and entertainment. The anchors need to expand, and the
center needs to project a broader and stronger market image. Chula Vista Center also
needs assistance with parking. Chula Vista Center is a "Home Town" center for
convenience rather than a "shopping experience", which affects its competitiveness.
Chula Vista Center would benefit ITom better exposure from the freeway.
S
CHULA VISTA ECONOMIC VISION 2020
Chu/a Vista as it sees itselfin the year 2020
Chula Vista has established a model local economy which generates a broad range of
employment opportunities supporting an excellent standard of living, tax revenues sustaining
exemplary public facilities and services, and an entrepreneurial spirit which fosters investment in
local business and real estate, as well as in cultural and social amenities. Chula Vista's economic
prosperity has been built upon collaborative efforts that recognize the City's unique advantages
and shared values. Key among these are educational excellence, applied technology innovation,
international trade, cultural diversity, unique natural resources, and forward-thinking city
planning. Chula Vista's progressive planning has provided for desirable workplaces and the
resources to support them, including alternative means of transportation, reliable water and
energy sources, and advanced communication technologies. These advantages, combined with
Chula Vista's collaborative values, have made the City a leader in regional economic policy-
making and positioned it to respond quickly when economic opportunities emerge.
Chula Vista recognizes that its prosperity depends upon its people and their skills. Accordingly,
Chula Vista has become home to a prestigious research university, a first-rate community college,
and superior primary and secondary schools. Chula Vista's educational system includes a
distinctive blend of technical skills required by the region's knowledge-based industries with
cross-cultural skills that California, Mexico, and global markets demand.
Chula Vista is uniquely positioned where two of the region's most powerful economic forces-
US/Mexico economic integration and San Diego's high technology prominence- converge. By
proactively linking these technology and trade opportunities, Chula Vista has created a rich
environment for corporate headquarters, high tech R&D and production centers, and
importers/exporters serving Mexico and the Pacific Rim. In addition, Chula Vista is a leader in
fostering small and emerging-business networks and technological alliances to create a
diversified, ever-growing economic base.
Chula Vista's proximity to Mexico has enriched the City with an enlightened multi-cultural
awareness that genuinely embraces diversity. The City's celebration of diversity is reflected in
virtually all aspects of the City's social and business fabric and has helped to make Chula Vista a
hub of internationally-oriented trade, services, government offices, and intellectual pursuits.
Chula Vista is the premier recreational, cultural, commercial, and entertainment center of San
Diego's South County. Located on San Diego Bay, the City is a tourist destination offering
bayside resorts and an array of nationally renowned leisure-time experiences. Local residents in
all areas of the City enjoy a lifestyle distinguished by well-planned neighborhoods with a broad
range of housing types and levels of affordability; desirable employment centers; vibrant mixed-
use people places; free-flowing traffic; celebrated art and cultural venues; and plentiful parks,
open spaces, and recreational facilities.
J:\COMMDEVlDYEIEDSlEcon Vision Draft #2 Sept 27.doc
EDS ISSUE PAPERS
Economic Research Associates, in conjunction with City staff, is preparing
10 Issue Papers discussing issues critical to the success of a Chula Vista
Economic Development Strategy. The Issue Paper topics have been
formulated via the on-going EDS process, based upon input from the EDS
Steering Committee and Subcommittees, the City's Economic Development
Commission, and targeted Focus Groups. Each Issue Paper will define the
specific issue, identify and evaluate alternative strategies to address the
issue, and quantify the cost/benefits of each strategy.
The 10 Issue Paper topics are listed below along with a brief synopsis of the
basic questions that will be attempted to be answered. A recurring theme
that has emerged from the EDS process is the need for 'Chula Vista
leadership as relates to regional economic development policy-making and
collaboration. Each of the Issue Papers will touch upon opportunities that
might exist for public/private, cross-jurisdictional stràtegies and efforts.
1. Inventory of Assets and Liabilities - CV and So. County
0 Which features attract business investment?
0 What features discourage business investment?
2. Workforce Preparedness - CV and So. County
0 What skills and training are desired by existing and
prospective businesses?
0 Which of these are available in So. County?
0 What education and training resources are available and
are they meeting business needs?
3. International Trade
0 What opportunities exist for Chula Vista businesses
related to NAFT A, the Mexican maquiladora program, the
nearby Mexican rnarket?
0 What opportunities exist related to the Pacific Rim?
4. Tourism and Hospitality
0 What does Chula Vista have to offer tourists?
0 What components of a tourism industry are lacking?
5. Employment Opportunities I Jobs to Housing Balance
0 How important is a citywide jobs/housing balance and
how does Chula Vista rate in this regard?
0 What is Chula Vista doing to ensure ample short and
long-term ernployment opportunities in terrns of land
availability, infrastructure, cost competitiveness?
0 How does the proposed Regional Technology Park fit into
the equation?
0 How do projected industry trends fit into the equation?
6. University Campus
0 What is the current status of the effort to attract a UC
system university?
0 What other options exist in terms of higher education,
technology training, and/or research oriented
institutions?
0 What are the implications of these options for the City's
long term economic vitality?
7. "East I West Divide"
0 How important is it that the City Of Chula Vista be seen
by its residents and outsiders as a "unified' city?
0 How can the western and eastern sections be better
integrated physically, socially and economically?
0 How can developrnent/redeveloprnent of the waterfront,
downtown, Broadway corridor and the EUC playa role in
this integration?
8. land Use Decisions: Fiscal SustainabiJity
0 What are the implications of land use decisions to the
City's short and long-term fiscal viability?
0 What are some ~f the most significant land use decisions
facing the City in terms of fiscal impact?
0 How is the City's fiscal sustainability impacted by policy
decisions made by other jurisdictions?
9. Business Support
[J What support services currently exist to meet the needs
of start-up, small, and large businesses?
D What business development services are needed but
lacking?
D What is the City's attitude towards business? Is the City
"business-friendly" in terms of its policies and processes?
10. Economic Development Marketing
[J What is the City currently doing to market itself to
desirable business investors?
D To what extent should the City's economic development
marketing be done in a South County context?
[J What types of resources are being committed to the
City's business outreach and image enhancement
programs?
J:ICOMMDEVIDYEIEDSlissue PaperslEDS Issue Papers - COUNCIL.doc
~ I ft...
--.- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (EDS)
"-
eflY OF BLUE RIBBON STEERING COMMITTEE MEMBER LIST
(HULA VISTA
SECTOR STEERING COMMITTEE MEMBERS
Educatian Dr. Serafin Zasueta, President
Southwestern College
Ed Brand, Superintendent,
Sweetwater-Union HS District
Peter Watry, Ph.D. in Economics, former professor of Economics at
Southwestern College and Chula Vista Resident
Energy Edwin Guiles, Group President, Regulated Business Units
Sempra Energy
Transportation Tom Larwin, Director
Metropalitan Transpartation Development Board (MTDB)
Gary Gallegos, Director
San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG)
Master Planned Communities Bill Ostrem, President & CEO
EastLake Development Company
Commercial/Industrial Ken Baumgartner, President
Develapment McMillin Company
Workforce Develapment Larry Fitch, CEO
Workforce Partnership Inc.
Financial Capital/Business Lending Kurt Chilcott, CEO
CDC Small Business Finance Corp.
International Trade Chuck Nathanson, Executive Director
San Diega Dialogue
Commercial/Industrial Real Estate Mike Philbin, Seniar Vice President
John Burnham Real Estate
High-Tech Manufacturing/R&D Bud Wetzler, Group President, Aerospace & Aerostructures Group
The Goodrich Corporation
Art Sellgren, Director of Facilities & Environmental, Aerospace &
Aerastructures Group, The Goodrich Carporation
Alan Foster, Senior Vice President
Sanyo
Joe Panetta, President & CEO
BIOCOM San Diego
Richard Even, General Manager
NYPRO San Diego'
BLUE RIBBON STEERING COMMITTEE MEMBER LIST PAGE 2
Retailers Gary Nordstram, Store Manager
Sears [Chula Vista Center]
Tourism Industry Pat Milkovich, Executive Director
Arco Olympic Training Center
Marty Keithley, General Manager
Knott's Soak City
San Diega Regional Economic Julie Meier Wright, President & CEO
Development Organizations San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation
South San Diego County Ecanomic Flavio Olivieri, President
Development Council South San Diego County Economic Development Council
Chula Vista Chamber of Commerce Ben Richardson, CSM, General Manager
General Growth Properties, Inc. [President, Chula Vista Chamber]
Lisa Cohen, Executive Director
Chura Vista Chamber of Commerce
San Diega Unified Port District David Malcolm, Commissioner
Board of Port Cammissioners
San Diego County Baard of Supervisor Greg Cox, Chair
Supervisors
City af Chura Vista Shirley Horton, Mayor
David D. Rawlands, Jr., City Manager
John McCann
Chula Vista Planning Commission Appointee
William A. Hall, Vice President
CES and Chair, Chula Vista Ecanomic Development Commission
..
POWER POINT PRESENTATION WILL DISTRIBUTED
AT NOVEMBER 15 WORKSHOP