HomeMy WebLinkAboutTechnical Report 06 - Local Mobility AnalysisTRANSPORTATION STUDY
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER REIMAGINED
Chula Vista, California
June 6, 2023
LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
XX
XX
PREPARED FOR:
XX
XX
XX
XX
Prepared by: Under the Supervision of:
Narasimha Prasad John Boarman, P. E.
Senior Transportation Engineer Principal
&
Zahira Chayeb
Transportation Engineer I
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Final Environmental Impact Report for the Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Sectional
Planning Area Plan Planning Area 12 (FEIR) (identified by the City of Chula Vista as EIR 02-
04) contains a comprehensive disclosure and analysis of potential environmental effects associated
with the implementation of the SPA Plan and Freeway Commercial (FC) site in the City of Chula
Vista (City of Chula Vista 2003). The SPA Plan was developed to refine and implement the land
use plans, goals and objectives of the Otay Ranch GDP for the development of Planning Area 12.
The project approval allowed for 960,000 square feet of development on the property according
to the Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial SPA Plan and associated Environmental Impact Report
(EIR). To date, 669,700 square feet (SF) of building area has been completed at the Town Center.
The proposed land use plan for the property is mixed-use, designated as mixed-use transit center
(MUTC). The purpose of the proposed change is to allow the property to develop a mix of residential
land uses. The proposed land uses would consist of 840 multi-family residential units and 146,300 square
feet of retail uses. Development would be centered within the northern portion of the site.
Project Screening Results
The Proposed residential uses will replace existing and other planned retail uses within the Otay Ranch
Town Center and there is no net increase in the number of ADTs compared to the approved Project.
Some of the residential trips will be captured within the Otay Ranch Town Center. The Project is
screened out from needing a detailed VMT analysis per the City of Chula Vista Transportation Study
Guidelines (June 2020, modified January 2022), and is presumed to have a less than significant VMT
impact.
The Project’s CEQA impacts are presumed to be less than significant and hence no CEQA related
mitigation measures are recommended.
Required Improvements from LMA
The LMA identified substantial effects at the Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive intersection. The
following improvements are recommended:
Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive
Provide signal optimization and Adaptive signal controller at this intersection. The ultimate
intersection geometry at this intersection is being finalized by the City.
The project should also dedicate right-of-way along the project frontages on Birch Road and Olympic
Parkway to accommodate future implementation of Class IV Cycle Tracks in accordance with the
City’s Active Transportation Plan.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
ii
Preparer Qualifications for CEQA / or LMA
John Boarman, P.E., T.E., Principal, Linscott, Law and Greenspan, Engineers, 31 years of experience
in Transportation Studies.
Narasimha Prasad, Senior Transportation Engineer, Linscott, Law and Greenspan, Engineers, 27 years
of experience in Transportation Studies.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION PAGE
1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1
2.0 Project Description .................................................................................................................... 2
2.1 Site Access .......................................................................................................................... 2
2.2 Internal Circulation ............................................................................................................. 3
3.0 VMT Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 7
4.0 Local Mobility Analysis Study Area, Analysis Approach and Methodology ....................... 8
4.1 Study Area .......................................................................................................................... 8
4.2 Analysis Scenarios .............................................................................................................. 8
4.3 Analysis Methodology ........................................................................................................ 8
4.3.1 Signalized Intersections ........................................................................................ 11
5.0 Existing Mobility Conditions .................................................................................................. 12
5.1 Existing Roadway Conditions........................................................................................... 12
5.2 Existing Intersection Traffic Volumes .............................................................................. 13
5.3 Existing Pedestrian Conditions ......................................................................................... 13
5.4 Existing Bicycle Network ................................................................................................. 13
5.5 Existing Transit Conditions .............................................................................................. 14
6.0 Substantial Effect Criteria ...................................................................................................... 20
7.0 Analysis of Existing Conditions .............................................................................................. 21
7.1 Peak Hour Intersection Analysis ....................................................................................... 21
8.0 Trip Generation/Distribution/Assignment ............................................................................ 23
8.1 Trip Generation ................................................................................................................. 23
8.1.1 Entitled Project...................................................................................................... 23
8.1.2 Current Site Trip Generation ................................................................................ 23
8.1.3 Project Residential Trips ....................................................................................... 23
8.1.4 Project Retail Trips ............................................................................................... 24
8.1.5 Trip Reduction Due to Mixed-Uses and Transit ................................................... 24
8.1.6 Total Project Trips ................................................................................................ 24
8.2 Trip Distribution and Assignment .................................................................................... 24
9.0 Analysis of Existing + Project Conditions ............................................................................. 33
9.1 Existing + Project Residential Analysis Peak Hour Intersection Analysis ....................... 33
9.2 Existing + Project Residential + Retail Peak Hour Intersection Analysis ........................ 33
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
10.0 Access Assessment .................................................................................................................... 36
11.0 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 37
APPENDICES
APPENDIX
A. The Approved Project Information Form, the Transportation Study Required Content
Checklist and Pages from The Final Environmental Impact Report for the Otay Ranch Freeway
Commercial Sectional Planning Area Plan Planning Area 12 (FEIR)
B. Intersection Counts and Signal Timing Plans
C. MTS Bus Schedules and Maps
D. Peak Hour Intersection Analysis Worksheets – Existing
E. SANDAG’s (Not So) Brief Guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego
Region
F. Peak Hour Intersection Analysis Worksheets – Existing + Residential
G. Peak Hour Intersection Analysis Worksheets – Existing + Residential + Retail
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
v
LIST OF FIGURES
SECTION—FIGURE # PAGE
Figure 2–1 Vicinity Map ................................................................................................................... 4
Figure 2–2 Project Area Map ............................................................................................................ 5
Figure 2–3 Site Plan .......................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 5–1 Existing Conditions Diagram ........................................................................................ 15
Figure 5–2 Existing Traffic Volumes .............................................................................................. 16
Figure 5–3 Pedestrian Circulation ................................................................................................... 17
Figure 5–4 Bicycle Circulation ....................................................................................................... 18
Figure 5–5 Transit ........................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 8–1 Project Residential Traffic Distribution ........................................................................ 27
Figure 8–2 Project Retail Traffic Distribution ................................................................................ 28
Figure 8–3 Project Residential Traffic Volumes ............................................................................. 29
Figure 8–4 Project Retail Traffic Volumes ..................................................................................... 30
Figure 8–5 Existing with Project Residential Traffic Volumes ...................................................... 31
Figure 8–6 Existing with Project Residential + Retail Traffic Volumes ........................................ 32
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION—TABLE # PAGE
Table 4–1 Intersection Level of Service Descriptions ........................................................................ 10
Table 4–2 Signalized Intersection LOS & Delay Ranges ................................................................... 10
Table 6–1 Threshold for Determining a Project’s Substantial Traffic Effect ..................................... 20
Table 7–1 Existing Intersection Operations ........................................................................................ 22
Table 8-1 Project Trip Generation ...................................................................................................... 26
Table 9–1 Existing with Project Intersection Operations ................................................................... 34
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
1
TRANSPORTATION STUDY
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER REIMAGINED
Chula Vista, California
May 18, 2023
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Linscott, Law & Greenspan Engineers (LLG) has prepared this transportation impact analysis to assess
the potential impacts associated with the Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined Project. The Project
site is located south of Olympic Parkway, between SR-125 and Eastlake Parkway. This report
addresses the potential transportation impacts and effects from the proposed project. The Local
Mobility Analysis (LMA) was prepared in accordance with the City of Chula Vista’s Transportation
Study Guidelines (TSG) dated June 2020, modified in January 2022. The approach for the LMA is a
plan-to-ground analysis.
The following sections are included in this report:
Project Description
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Background
Project VMT Analysis
Local Mobility Analysis Approach & Methodology
Existing Mobility Conditions
Substantial Effect Criteria
Analysis of Existing Conditions
Project Trip Generation, Distribution and Assignment
Analysis of Existing + Project Conditions
Access Assessment
Conclusions
The Transportation Study Required Content Checklist and the Approved Project Information Form
are included in Appendix A.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
2
2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Otay Ranch lies within the East Planning Area of the City of Chula Vista. The East Planning Area is
bordered by Interstate 805 (I-805) to the west, San Miguel Mountain and State Route 54 to the north,
the Otay Reservoir and the Jamul foothills to the east, and the Otay River Valley to the south. The
Freeway Commercial Sectional Plan Area (SPA) Plan is located in the northeastern portion of the Otay
Valley Parcel of the 22,899-acre Otay Ranch General Development Plan (GDP) project area. The SPA
Plan Area is comprised of approximately 120.5 acres of commercial land development, and
approximately 12.4 acres for circulation improvements.
The Final Environmental Impact Report for the Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Sectional
Planning Area Plan Planning Area 12 (FEIR) (identified by the City of Chula Vista as EIR 02-
04) contains a comprehensive disclosure and analysis of potential environmental effects associated
with the implementation of the SPA Plan and Freeway Commercial (FC) site in the City of Chula
Vista (City of Chula Vista 2003). The SPA Plan was developed to refine and implement the land
use plans, goals and objectives of the Otay Ranch GDP for the development of Planning Area 12.
The project approval allowed for 960,000 square feet of development on the property according
to the Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial SPA Plan and associated Environmental Impact Report
(EIR). To date, 669,700 square feet (SF) of building area has been completed at the Town Center.
The proposed land use plan for the property is mixed-use, designated as mixed-use transit center
(MUTC). The purpose of the proposed change is to allow the property to develop a mix of residential
land uses and densities that will help sustain the existing Town Center while also facilitating new
business opportunities. The proposed land uses would consist of 840 multi-family residential units and
146,300 square feet of retail uses. Development would be centered within the northern portion of the
site.
Proposed commercial uses would consist of up to 146,300 new square feet of super regional
mall/commercial uses. These new commercial uses will be complimentary to the existing Town Center
uses as well as to better serve the new residences being delivered to the site. Location and size of
individual new spaces will be determined in the future as the market demands.
2.1 Site Access
The project site (FC-1) is bounded by Eastlake Parkway, a 6-lane Major Arterial to the East; Birch
Road, a 6-lane Prime Arterial to the South; SR-125 to the West, and the FC-2 site to the North.
Olympic Parkway, an 8-lane Prime Arterial, forms the northerly boundary of the FC-2 site. The
primary access into FC-2 is Town Center Drive, a Commercial Promenade that ties into Olympic
Parkway and runs north-south, bisecting the FC-2 site.
The primary access into the FC-1 project site is the proposed southerly extension of Town Center
Drive as a private collector road. The three secondary private access drives (one full access and two
right turn only) into the site from Eastlake Parkway and the two secondary private access (full access)
drives off of Birch Road will remain.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
3
2.2 Internal Circulation
Internal circulation for the FC-1 project site will be provided by the extension of Town Center Drive
along with the proposed Private Street B, a private drive that interconnects the residential buildings in
an east-west direction before turning north to tie into the main looped access for the commercial
development. The proposed Town Center Drive extension and the proposed Private Drive B
interconnect to exiting internal private circulation serving the commercial development at multiple
locations, carrying traffic to the aforementioned access points at Eastlake Parkway and Birch Road.
Figure 1–1 depicts the Project vicinity and Figure 2-2 depicts the Project area. Figure 2–3 depicts
the Project’s site plan.
S.D.COUNTY
CARLSBAD
CORONADO
ENCINITAS
SOLANABEACH
CHULA VISTA
OCEANSIDE
VISTA
SAN MARCOS
POWAY
SANTEE
EL CAJON
LA MESA
LEMONGROVE
NATIONALCITY
SAN DIEGO
S.D. COUNTYS.D. COUNTY
ESCONDIDO
Time: 10:14 AMDate: 3/1/2022N:\3254\Figures
Vicinity Map
Figure 2-1
[
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
§¨8
§¨5 §¨805
§¨5
§¨15
§¨5
§¨8
"Ã54
"Ã125
"Ã94
"Ã52
"Ã163
"Ã56
"Ã78
"Ã67
§¨15
Project Site
Project Area Map
Figure 2-2
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254\Figures
Date: 02/23/22
Project
Site
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
7
3.0 VMT ANALYSIS
The Final Environmental Impact Report for the Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Sectional Planning
Area Plan Planning Area 12 (FEIR) (identified by the City of Chula Vista as EIR 02-04) contains a
comprehensive disclosure and analysis of potential environmental effects associated with the
implementation of the SPA Plan and Freeway Commercial (FC) site in the City of Chula Vista (City
of Chula Vista 2003). Following is the Project description and trip generation in the Approved report:
Specific project development details identify approximately 120.5 acres of the site designated
for Freeway Commercial Use, and 12.4 acres designated for circulation. A total of 1,215,000
square feet of commercial uses would be allowed in the SPA area with a Floor Area Ratio
(FAR) of 0.25. It would also include room for a light rail alignment or other transitway and a
station site to be reserved for the San Diego Trolley, and a park-and-ride component for
commuter parking in the commercial area. Development of the area would be phased,
dependent upon public facility improvement needs and real estate market conditions.
It is calculated that with ultimate development, the project will generate a total of 48,600 daily
trips, with 972 trips (680 inbound and 292 outbound trips) in the AM peak hour and 4,374 trips
(2,187 inbound and 2,187 outbound trips) in the PM peak hour. With the reduction due to the
pass-by trips, the project is calculated to add a net new total of 44,226 daily trips with 3,586
trips (1,793 inbound and 1,793 outbound trips) in the PM peak hour.
Relevant pages from the above referenced EIR are included in Appendix A.
The SPA Plan was developed to refine and implement the land use plans, goals and objectives of the
Otay Ranch GDP for the development of Planning Area 12. The total ADT generated by this approved
Project is 33,600. The proposed Project is tiering under this REIR that used LOS and with the proposed
changes the total Project ADT remains at 33,600.
The Proposed residential uses will replace existing and other planned retail uses within the Otay Ranch
Town Center and there is no net increase in the number of ADTs compared to the approved Project.
Some of the residential trips will be captured within the Otay Ranch Town Center. Per SANDAG,
Residential trip length is 7.9 miles and Regional Shopping Center is 5.1 miles per trip. However, the
residential trips replace an equivalent number of retail trips and are not new trips. It may also be noted
that some of the retail trips are captured within the mall and hence the total VMT is further reduced.
The Project is screened out from needing a detailed VMT analysis per the City of Chula Vista
Transportation Study Guidelines (June 2020, modified January 2022), and is presumed to have a less
than significant VMT impact. Therefore, a VMT analysis is not required.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
8
4.0 LOCAL MOBILITY ANALYSIS STUDY AREA, ANALYSIS APPROACH AND
METHODOLOGY
A Project-Specific Local Mobility Analysis (LMA) was prepared that focuses on automobile delay
and LOS. The LOS analysis was conducted to identify Project effects on the roadway operations in
the Project study area and recommend Project improvements to address noted deficiencies.
4.1 Study Area
Since the Project is calculated to generate the same number of ADT as compared to the prior approved
Project, an extensive LMA study area is not warranted. The Project will add traffic on a “Plan-to-
ground” basis and therefore, a study area consisting of the intersections surrounding the site was
determined to be appropriate. Based on the LMA study area scoping criteria (Tables 1 and 2 of the
TSG), no intersection analysis would be required. Nevertheless, a study area consisting of eight
intersections providing local and regional access to the project was evaluated.
INTERSECTIONS
1. Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive
2. Olympic Parkway / Eastlake Parkway
3. Eastlake Parkway / Kestrel Falls Road
4. Birch Road / SR-125 Southbound Ramps
5. Birch Road / SR-125 Northbound Ramps
6. Birch Road / Millenia Avenue
7. Birch Road / Orion Avenue
8. Birch Road / Eastlake Parkway
4.2 Analysis Scenarios
The Project does not generate more daily traffic than what was previously approved for the site.
Therefore, this study includes analysis of the following scenarios:
Existing
Existing + Proposed Residential Land Uses
Existing + Proposed Residential + Additional Retail square footage
4.3 Analysis Methodology
There are various methodologies used to analyze signalized intersections and unsignalized
intersections. The parameters identified in Appendix G of the City’s TSG (peak hour factor, saturation
flow rate, signal timing, conflicting pedestrian and pedestrian calls, heavy truck percentage, and lane
utilization factor) are utilized in the analysis. The measure of effectiveness for intersection operations
is Level of Service (LOS), which denotes the operating conditions which occur at a given intersection
under various traffic volume loads.
LOS is a qualitative measure used to describe a quantitative analysis considering factors such as
roadway geometries, signal phasing, speed, travel delay, freedom to maneuver, and safety. LOS
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
9
provides an index to the operational qualities of a roadway segment or an intersection. Levels of
service designations range from A to F, with LOS A representing the best operating conditions and
LOS F representing the worst.
LOS designation is reported differently for signalized and unsignalized intersections. In the Highway
Capacity Manual (HCM) 6th Edition, LOS for signalized intersections is defined in terms of delay.
The LOS analysis results in seconds of delay expressed in terms of letters A through F. Delay is a
measure of driver discomfort, frustration, fuel consumption, and lost travel time.
Table 4–1 summarizes the signalized intersections levels of service descriptions. Table 4–2 depicts
the intersection LOS and corresponding delay ranges, which are based on overall intersection delay
(signalized intersections) and the average control delay for any particular minor movement
(unsignalized intersections), respectively. LOS relative to signalized intersection is further described
below.
LOS A describes operations with very low delay, (i.e., less than 10.0 seconds per vehicle). This occurs
when progression is extremely favorable, and most vehicles arrive during the green phase. Most
vehicles do not stop at all. Short cycle lengths may also contribute to low delay.
LOS B describes operations with delay in the range 10.1 seconds and 20.0 seconds per vehicle. This
generally occurs with good progression and/or short cycle lengths. More vehicles stop than for LOS
A, causing higher levels of average delay.
LOS C describes operations with delay in the range 20.1 seconds and 35.0 seconds per vehicle. These
higher delays may result from fair progression and/or longer cycle lengths. Individual cycle failures
may begin to appear. The number of vehicles stopping is significant at this level, although many still
pass through the intersection without stopping.
LOS D describes operations with delay in the range 35.1 seconds and 55.0 seconds per vehicle. At
LOS D, the influence of congestion becomes more noticeable. Longer delays may result from some
combination of unfavorable progression, long cycle lengths, or higher volume (demand) / capacity
(v/c) ratios. Many vehicles stop, and the proportion of vehicles not stopping declines. Individual cycle
failures are frequent.
LOS E describes operations with delay in the range of 55.1 seconds to 80.0 seconds per vehicle. This
is considered to be the limit of acceptable delay. These high delay values generally indicate poor
progression, long cycle lengths, and high v/c ratios. Individual cycle failures are frequent occurrences.
LOS F describes operations with delay in excess of over 80.0 seconds per vehicle. This is considered
to be unacceptable to most drivers. This condition often occurs with over-saturation (i.e., when arrival
flow rates exceed the capacity of the intersection). It may also occur at high v/c ratios below 1.00 with
many individual cycle failures. Poor progression and long cycle lengths may also be major
contributing causes to such delay levels.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
10
TABLE 4–1
INTERSECTION LEVEL OF SERVICE DESCRIPTIONS
Level of Service Description
A Occurs when progression is extremely favorable and most vehicles arrive during the green phase.
Most vehicles do not stop at all. Short cycle lengths may also contribute to low delay.
B Generally, occurs with good progression and/or short cycle lengths. More vehicles stop than for
LOS A, causing higher levels of average delay.
C Generally, results when there is fair progression and/or longer cycle lengths. Individual cycle
failures may begin to appear in this level. The number of vehicles stopping is significant at this
level, although many still pass through the intersection without stopping.
D Generally, results in noticeable congestion. Longer delays may result from some combination of
unfavorable progression, long cycle lengths, or high volume-to-capacity ratios. Many vehicles
stop, and the proportion of vehicles not stopping declines. Individual cycle failures are
noticeable.
E Considered to be the limit of acceptable delay. These high delay values generally indicate poor
progression, long cycle lengths, and high volume-to-capacity ratios. Individual cycle failures are
frequent occurrences.
F Considered to be unacceptable to most drivers. This condition often occurs with over saturation
i.e. when arrival flow rates exceed the capacity of the intersection. It may also occur at high
volume-to-capacity ratios below 1.00 with many individual cycle failures. Poor progression and
long cycle lengths may also be major contributing causes to such delay levels
TABLE 4–2
SIGNALIZED INTERSECTION LOS & DELAY RANGES
LOS Delay (seconds/vehicle)
A ≤ 10.0
B 10.1 to 20.0
C 20.1 to 35.0
D 35.1 to 55.0
E 55.1 to 80.0
F ≥ 80.1
Source: Highway Capacity Manual
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
11
4.3.1 Signalized Intersections
For signalized intersections, LOS criteria are stated in terms of the average control delay per vehicle
for a 15-minute analysis period. Control delay includes initial deceleration delay, queue move-up time,
stopped delay, and final acceleration delay. Actual traffic signal timing data for each location was
obtained from City of Chula Vista records and inputted into the respective intersections.
Effect of Metropolitan Transit System (MTS Rapid Bus)
The MTS Rapid Bus Route 225, operated by Metropolitan Transit System (MTS) connects Downtown
San Diego and Otay Mesa. In the Project study area, the Rapid Bus runs parallel to Eastlake Parkway
and tracks cross the west legs of the Kestral Falls / Eastlake Parkway and Birch Road / Eastlake
Parkway intersections. The following describes how LLG accounted for the additional delay at these
intersections due to the train crossings at this location:
The Rapid Bus runs every 15 minutes in each direction during the weekdays. Therefore, during each
peak hour, eight buses pass through the intersections. However, based on field observations, buses
traveling in opposite directions could arrive concurrently, which results in a reduced number of
independent “interruptions” during an hour. To be conservative, the calculation assumed a single bus
passing through each time. Therefore, 8 “interruptions” due to the buses were used at each intersection.
The effect of the “interruptions” is calculated as follows for each intersection:
Kestral Falls / Eastlake Parkway
Number of “Interruptions” at the intersection (Nt) = 8
Average time of “Interruption” (Ic) = 15 seconds
Total “Interruption” time per hour (Lgc) = Nt * Ic = 120 seconds
Saturation flow reduction = 120 seconds / 3,600 seconds = 3%
Birch Road / Eastlake Parkway
Number of “Interruptions” at the intersection (Nt) = 8
Average time of “Interruption” (Ic) = 14 seconds
Total “Interruption” time per hour (Lgc) = Nt * Ic = 112 seconds
Saturation flow reduction = 112 seconds / 3,600 seconds = 3%
A saturation flow reduction of 3% was applied into the Synchro computer software for movements
affected by the train gate closure. This added delay was apportioned among the affected movements
at the intersection as a proportion of overall hourly capacity by reducing movement capacity using an
adjustment factor within the Synchro software at these intersections for all analysis scenarios.
Movements to and from the west legs of the Kestral Falls / Eastlake Parkway and Birch Road / Eastlake
Parkway intersections are stopped during the “interruptions”.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
12
5.0 EXISTING MOBILITY CONDITIONS
Effective evaluation of the traffic effects associated with the proposed Project requires an
understanding of the existing transportation system within the project area. Figure 5–1 shows an
existing conditions diagram, including intersections control and lane configurations.
5.1 Existing Roadway Conditions
The following is a description of the major roadways located within the immediate vicinity of the
Project site at the time of the existing counts. The following is a description of the existing street
network in the study area.
Olympic Parkway
Olympic Parkway is classified as a Prime Arterial and an Expressway in the City of Chula Vista
General Plan Land Use and Transportation Element within the project vicinity. Currently, it is
constructed as an 8-lane divided roadway with four lanes westbound and four lanes eastbound and a
raised median between SR-125 and Eastlake Parkway. East of Eastlake Parkway, Olympic Parkway
is built as a 6-lane divided roadway with three lanes westbound and three lanes eastbound and a raised
median. Bike lanes are provided on both sides of the street and curbside parking is prohibited. The
posted speed limit is 50 mph within the project vicinity.
Eastlake Parkway
Eastlake Parkway is classified as a Prime Arterial and Major Road in the City of Chula Vista General
Plan Land Use and Transportation Element within the project vicinity. Currently, it is constructed as
a 6-lane divided roadway with three lanes northbound and three lanes southbound and a raised median.
Bike lanes are provided on both sides of the street and curbside parking is prohibited. The posted speed
limit is 40 mph north of Olympic Parkway and 50 mph south of Olympic Parkway.
Birch Road
Birch Road is classified as a Prime Arterial and a Major Road in the City of Chula Vista General Plan
Land Use and Transportation Element within the project vicinity. Currently, it is constructed as a 6-
lane divided roadway with three lanes westbound and three lanes eastbound and a raised median. Bike
lanes are provided on both sides of the street and curbside parking is prohibited. The posted speed
limit is 50 mph within the project vicinity.
Town Center Drive
Town Center Drive is an unclassified 4-lane road within the project vicinity. Currently, it is
constructed as a 4-lane divided roadway with two lanes in each direction with a raised median south
of Olympic Parkway, narrowing to one lane in each direction and a raised median. Bike lanes are not
provided, and curbside parking is permitted in sections. Curb and gutter are provided A noncontiguous
sidewalk is provided. There is no posted speed limit.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
13
SR 125
SR 125 is a Four-Lane Tollway. Access to the Project site is provided via ramps at Birch Road and
Olympic Boulevard.
5.2 Existing Intersection Traffic Volumes
Weekday daily, and AM and PM peak hour intersection turning movement volume counts were
commissioned on Thursday, January 16, 2020. The intersection counts were conducted between the
hours of 7:00-9:00 AM and 4:00-6:00 PM to capture peak commuter activity. Area schools were in
session during the time of the counts. Signal timing plans were obtained from the City of Chula Vista
and used in the intersection analyses.
Figure 5–2 shows the existing traffic volumes. Appendix B contains the count sheets and signal timing
sheets.
5.3 Existing Pedestrian Conditions
Continuous sidewalks are provided along both sides of Olympic Parkway, Eastlake Parkway and Birch
Road. There are no missing sidewalks within the Project vicinity. The proposed Project will provide a
network of sidewalks onsite for the convenience and safety of residents. There are no obstructions to
pedestrian circulation along the project frontage.
Curb ramps and warning strips are present at each corner of the study intersections except the
following:
Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive – No warning strips
Olympic Parkway / Eastlake Parkway – No warning strips
Eastlake Parkway / Kestrel Falls Road – No warning strips on east corners
Birch Road / Millenia Avenue – No warning strips
Birch Road / Orion Avenue – No warning strips
Birch Road / Eastlake Parkway – No warning strips on east corners
Figure 5-3 depicts the existing Pedestrian circulation.
5.4 Existing Bicycle Network
Currently, Class II bike lanes are provided on Olympic Parkway, Eastlake Parkway and Birch Road
in the Project vicinity.
Class IV Cycle Tracks are planned to be constructed along Olympic Parkway, Eastlake Parkway, and
Birch Road, within the project vicinity.
Figure 5-4 depicts the existing Bicycle circulation.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
14
5.5 Existing Transit Conditions
The Project area is primarily served by transit services provided by the San Diego Metropolitan Transit
System (MTS). Below is brief description of the transit services:
MTS Bus – The MTS bus provides local and regional connections between neighborhoods and cities
in the. There are 3 MTS bus routes serving the Project area. The San Diego Metropolitan Transit
System (MTS) operates within the study area. A description of the transit services within the Project
Vicinity are as follows:
Route 225 (Rapid) begins at Otay Mesa Transit Center and ends at Downtown San Diego. There are
11 stops along this route. Within Chula Vista, Route 225 Rapid runs on its own guideway. It operates
on the weekdays from approximately 4:30 AM to 11 PM. Weekend services operates at approximately
5 AM to 10 PM. Services are at 20 to 30-minute frequencies. The nearest bus stop to the project site
is located at Otay Ranch Station, northwest of Eastlake Parkway and Kestrel Falls Road intersection.
Route 707 runs from Eastlake Parkway & Olympic Parkway to Southwestern College via East H.
Street and Eastlake Parkway. There are 26 stops along this route with destinations to Bonita Vista
High School, Eastlake High School, Eastlake Village Center, Otay Ranch Town Center, and
Southwestern College. Route 707 currently operates Monday through Friday from 5:02 AM through
7:14 PM departing from Eastlake Parkway & Olympic Parkway and from 6:31 AM through 7:23 PM
departing from Southwestern College. Weekday schedules include 30-minute headways. Route 707
does not operate on weekends or observed holidays. The nearest bus stop to the project site is located
at Eastlake Parkway, south of Olympic Parkway.
Route 709 runs from the H. Street Transit Center to Eastlake Parkway & Olympic Parkway via East
H. Street, East Palomar Street, and La Media Road, as well as other streets that are not near the project
study area. There are 22 stops along this route with destinations to Bonita Vista High School, Hilltop
High School, Otay Ranch Town Center, Scripps Hospital and Southwestern College. Route 709
currently operates Monday through Friday from 5:49 AM through 10:22 PM departing from the H.
Street Transit Center and from 4:52 AM through 10:06 PM departing from Eastlake Parkway &
Olympic Parkway. Saturday route schedule begins at 6:22 AM through 9:55 AM departing from the
H. Street Transit Center and begins at 5:37 AM to 9:37 PM departing from Eastlake Parkway &
Olympic Parkway. Sunday schedule begins at 6:51 AM through 8:07 PM departing from the H. Street
Transit Center and begins at 6:37 AM through 7:50 PM departing from Eastlake Parkway & Olympic
Parkway. Route 709 operates on observed holidays with a Saturday or Sunday schedule. Weekday
schedules include 30-minute headways. Weekend schedules include 1-hour headways. The nearest
bus stop to the project site is located at Olympic Parkway, west of Eastlake Parkway.
Figure 5-5 depicts the existing Transit routes in the Project vicinity. Appendix C contains the MTS
bus schedules and maps.
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAve
B i r c h Rd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:14 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Existing C onditions DiagramFigure 5-1
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
?
?
?
?
?
?
Êe
e
e Êe
e
e
Êe
e
e Êe
e
e
Êe
e
e Êe
e
e
Êe
e
e Êe
e
e
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch Rd
Birch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
DKL DDJJJK
DDKDDJJJK
DDJJJL
DDJJJLDDJJJL
DDJJJLL
DK
DJJKDFL
DJJJL
JJJL
DH JJJL
DKL
DDJL
DJJJL
DDJJKDDJK
DJK
DDJJL
JJJL
DJJJL
DKL
DL DDJJJL
DDK
JJJL
DJK
1 2
3 4
87
65
Study Intersection
Traffic Signal
Turning Movements
Posted Speed Limit
MTS Rapid 225
#
35mph
DJL
5
0
m
p
h
50mph
5
0
m
p
h
5 0 m p h
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAve
B i r c h Rd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:13 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Existing Traffic VolumesFigure 5-2
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
Study Intersections
Intersection AM/PM Peak Hour Volumes
#
DJL
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
?
?
?
?
?
?
J
J
L
L J D
J
D
D
L
D L
L
D D
L
J
J
D
L
D J L
J
L J D
L
J
D
LJDD
L
J
L D
J
L
J
L
L
J
LD
L
J
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch RdBirch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
27 / 105
877 / 1,558
160 / 207295 / 582
21 / 113
42 / 116
1,289 / 94612 / 32
265 / 589
102 / 269
74 / 302
8 / 70
63 / 11274 / 211
95 / 218
126 / 326
965 / 606
410 / 907
169 / 346
193 / 253
154 / 364
196 / 510
56 / 130
132 / 799
42 / 220
323 / 885
29 / 153
55 / 556 / 2111 / 10
4 / 13
344 / 715
3 / 32
31 / 210
1 / 246 / 22
168 / 150
123 / 367
738 / 1,301
109 / 55677 / 1,299
60 / 17
300 / 238764 / 1,313
34 / 141
22 / 42
211 / 113650 / 1,555
71 / 280
18 / 81
15 / 63
25 / 53574 / 759104 / 174
60 / 172
29 / 80
346 / 388225 / 413391 / 94894 / 293
4 / 185
1 / 48
7 / 116
15 / 155525 / 7243 / 49
8 / 31
7 / 25
174 / 9256 / 151404 / 8696 / 143
167 / 419
111 / 273
34 / 207
52 / 153244 / 2711 / 1
1 / 4
109 / 253
132 / 23863 / 157167 / 487189 / 372
1 2
3 4
87
65
@<NOG<F@
)
.6
)
"-":
N68&35&
RDI?DIBR<GF
@<NO@MIPM=<I
>@IO@M
CDGGN=JMJPBC
=DM>CMJ<?
>DM>PG<ODJI
K@?@NOMD<I
>DM>PG<ODJI
NM
A>=JPI?<MT
A>
A>
A>
I<K
F@NOM@GA<GGNM?
HDGG@ID<
<Q@
JM
D
J
I
<
Q
@
HPGODPN@K<OC
>JII@>OJM
K@?@NOMD<IMJPO@
>JMMD?JM
K@?@NOMD<IMJPO@
*/5&3/"-
$*3$6-"5*0/
1&%&453*"/
@SCD=DO
N
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER (FC-1)Pedestrian CirculaƟon
Figure 5-3
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254\Figures
Date: 02/22/22
Source: Hunsaker & Associates
@<NOG<F@
)
.6
)
"-":
N68&35&
RDI?DIBR<GF
@<NO@MIPM=<I
>@IO@M
CDGGN=JMJPBC
=DM>CMJ<?
F@NOM&GA<GGNM?
HDGG@ID<
<Q@
NM
A>=JPI?<MT
A>
A>
A>
I<K
JM
D
J
I
<
Q
@
@SCD=DO =
>DM>PG<ODJI
=D>T>G@
>DM>PG<ODJI
N
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER (FC-1)
@SDNODIB>G<NND
=DF@K<OC
@SDNODIB>G<NNDD
=DF@G<I@
KG<II@?>G<NNDQ
>T>G@OM<>F
Bicycle CirculaƟon
Figure 5-4
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254\Figures
Date: 02/22/22
Source: Hunsaker & Associates
@<NOG<F@
)
.6
)
"-":
N68&35&
RDI?DIBR<GF
@<NO@MIPM=<I
>@IO@M
CDGGN=JMJPBC
=DM>CMJ<?
@SCD=DO
>DM>PG<ODJI
OM<INDO
NM
OM<INDO
JQ@MK<NN
ON
OM<INDONOJK
AJMMJPO@ OJJO<TH@N<
OM<INDO>@IO@M
HDGG@ID<
OJ?JRIOJRI
N<I?D@BJ
ON
ON
OM<INDONOJK
AJMMJPO@
OJNJPOCR@NO@MI
>JGG@B@<I?C
NOM@@OOM<INDO
>@IO@M
M<KD?OM<INDO
MJPO@
M<KD?OM<INDO
MJPO@
M<KD?OM<INDO
MJPO@
HONJO<T
MJ<?NO<ODJI
OJNJPOCR@NO@MI
>JGG@B@
ON =MOOM<INDO
NO<ODJI
IJO@ OM<INDOMJPO@NDI?D><O@?
H<T=@HJ?DAD@?=TN<I?<B
AMJHODH@OJODH@
A>=JPI?<MT
A>
A>
A>
I<K
F@NOM@GA<GGNM?
HDGG@ID<
<Q@
JM
D
J
I
<
Q
@
N
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER (FC-1)Transit CirculaƟon
Figure 5-5
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254\Figures
Date: 02/22/22
Source: Hunsaker & Associates
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
20
6.0 SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT CRITERIA
Project specific traffic effects are those effects for which the addition of project trips result in an
identifiable degradation in LOS on intersections, triggering the need for specific project-related
improvement strategies.
The criteria for determining whether the Project results in project specific traffic effects on
intersections in the City of Chula Vista are as summarized in Table 6-1 below:
TABLE 6–1
THRESHOLD FOR DETERMINING A PROJECT’S SUBSTANTIAL TRAFFIC EFFECT
Facility Facility Type Substantial Traffic Effect
Signal Whole Intersection Proposed project contributes to an intersection that currently operates or
is projected to operate at LOS E or below.
Proposed project causes an intersection’s operations to degrade to LOS E
or below.
Turning Movement Proposed project traffic either contributes to or is responsible for the 95th
percentile queue length exceeding available storage length.
Freeway
Interchange
Off-Ramp Proposed project traffic either contributes to or is responsible for the 95th
percentile queue length exceeding available off-ramp storage length and
extending onto the freeway mainline.
All-way
Stop Control
Whole Intersection Proposed project contributes to an intersection that currently operates, or
is projected to operate, at LOS E or below.
Proposed project causes the intersection’s operations to LOS E or below
during one or more peak hours.
Side-Street
Stop Control
Critical movement Proposed project contributes to a critical movement of an intersection that
currently operates, or is projected to operate, at LOS E or below.
Proposed project causes the intersections critical movement to degrade to
LOS E or below.
Pedestrian All facilities within a project study area
Bicycle All facilities within a project study area
Transit All facilities within a project study area
General Notes:
a. Information obtained from Table 3 of the Chula Vista’s Transportation Study Guidelines
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
21
7.0 ANALYSIS OF EXISTING CONDITIONS
7.1 Peak Hour Intersection Analysis
Table 7–1 summarizes the peak hour intersection operations under Existing conditions in the study
area. As shown, the study area intersections are calculated to currently operate acceptably at LOS D
or better during the AM and PM peak hours.
Appendix D contains the Existing intersection analysis worksheets. The City’s TSG parameters
(included in the table entitled “Local Mobility Analysis Specification – General” in Appendix G of
the TSG) were utilized in the analysis.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
22
TABLE 7–1
EXISTING INTERSECTION OPERATIONS
Intersection Control Type Peak Hour Delaya LOSb
1. Olympic Pkwy / Town Center Dr Signal AM 18.8 B
PM 48.5 D
2. Olympic Pkwy / Eastlake Pkwy Signal AM 37.0 D
PM 47.8 D
3. Kestrel Falls Rd / Eastlake Pkwy Signal AM 12.9 B
PM 20.2 C
4. Birch Rd / SR-125 SB Ramps Signal AM 7.3 A
PM 11.3 B
5. Birch Rd / SR-125 NB Ramps Signal AM 2.4 A
PM 5.1 A
6. Birch Rd / Millenia Ave Signal AM 20.7 C
PM 34.4 C
7. Birch Rd / Orion Ave Signal AM 11.9 B
PM 21.4 C
8. Birch Rd / Eastlake Pkwy Signal AM 29.9 C
PM 52.6 D
Footnotes:
a. Average delay expressed in seconds per vehicle.
b. Level of Service.
SIGNALIZED
Delay LOS
0.0 ≤ 10.0 A
10.1 to 20.0 B
20.1 to 35.0 C
35.1 to 55.0 D
55.1 to 80.0 E
≥ 80.1 F
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
23
8.0 TRIP GENERATION/DISTRIBUTION/ASSIGNMENT
8.1 Trip Generation
Trip generation rates were obtained from the (Not So) Brief Guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation
Rates for the San Diego Region, April 2002 by SANDAG. The existing shopping center plus the
proposed retail expansion includes the minimum square footage to be classified as a super-regional
mall per SANDAG’s “(Not So) Brief guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego
Region.
The following rates were used:
The rates for Super Regional Shopping Center of 35 ADT per 1,000 Square Feet (ksf) was
used for the retail since that was the rate used in the approved project.
The rates for Apartments (or any multifamily units more than 20 Dwelling Unit (DU) per acre)
of 6 ADT per unit was used for the Apartments. The density of the Proposed project is 56 DU
per acre.
As described previously, the Otay Valley Town Center’s entitled ADT is 33,600. Currently 669,700
SF of retail generating 23,440 ADT is built. The Project proposes to build 840 multifamily residential
units. The amount of additional retail that could be built was back calculated to generate a total of
33,600 ADT for the entire site.
Due to the proximity and number of the residential units, several residential trips for retail purposes
will be captured within the mall (internal trips), thus reducing the number of residential trips to other
retail destinations outside of the mall. Thus, the net external trips will be reduced. However, this
analysis does not consider the reduction in traffic due to the internal capture.
8.1.1 Entitled Project
Table 8–1 summarizes the Entitled trip generation for the approved Project. As seen in Table 8-1, the
Entitled trip generation for the approved Project is a total of 33,600 daily trips with a total of 1,344 trips
during the AM peak hour (941 inbound / 403 outbound trips) and 3,360 trips during PM peak hour
(1,680 inbound / 1,680 outbound trips).
8.1.2 Current Site Trip Generation
As seen in Table 8-1, the current site generates a total of 23,440 daily trips with a total of 938 trips
during the AM peak hour (657 inbound / 281 outbound trips) and 2,344 trips during PM peak hour
(1,172 inbound / 1,172 outbound trips).
8.1.3 Project Residential Trips
Table 8–1 summarizes the trip generation for the Proposed Project. As seen in Table 8-1, the proposed
residential portion of the Project is estimated to generate a total of 5,040 daily trips with a total of 404
trips during the AM peak hour (81 inbound / 323 outbound trips) and 454 trips during PM peak hour
(318 inbound / 136 outbound trips).
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
24
8.1.4 Project Retail Trips
The proposed retail portion of the Project is estimated to generate a total of 5,120 daily trips with a
total of 205 trips during the AM peak hour (144 inbound / 61 outbound trips) and 512 trips during PM
peak hour (256 inbound / 256 outbound trips).
8.1.5 Trip Reduction Due to Mixed-Uses and Transit
Per footnote “T” in the SANDAG’s (Not So) Brief Guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for
the San Diego Region. (Appendix E), A 5% daily trip reduction is allowed for land uses with transit
access or near transit stations accessible within 1/4th mile. Also, up to 10% daily trip reduction is allowed
for mixed-use developments where residential and commercial retail are combined.
The reduction in trips due to the mixed-use and proximity to transit station are shown in Table 8-1. As
seen in Table 8-1, due to the mixed-use, there is a reduction of 1,016 daily trips, 61 AM peak hour trips
and 96 PM peak hour trips. In addition, due to the proximity to transit station, there is an additional
reduction of 457 daily trips, 27 AM peak hour trips and 44 PM peak hour trips.
The mixed-use reduction was applied to the Proposed residential and shopping center land uses only. The
transit reduction was applied to the total project trips with the mixed-use reduction. The Mixed-Use and
Transit reduction shown in the table is not applied to the analysis and hence the analysis in this report is
conservative.
8.1.6 Total Project Trips
As seen in Table 8-1, including the existing super-regional mall, the Project is estimated to generate a
total of 33,600 new daily trips with 1,547 trips during the AM peak hour (882 inbound / 665 outbound
trips) and 3,310 trips during PM peak hour (1,746 inbound / 1,564 outbound trips).
Comparing the total trip generation to the approved project, the proposed Project will generate the same
amount of daily traffic as the Approved Project as described in Section 8.1.1 above.
8.2 Trip Distribution and Assignment
Separate distributions were developed for residential and retail uses. Trips originate from residential
land uses and a retail land use is a destination. Therefore, the trip patterns for residential and retail
land uses are different.
The Project trip distribution was developed separately for the residential and retail developments.
Residential Distribution
The distribution for the residential portion of this Project is based on the availability of access to the
nearest freeways (SR 125 and the non-toll I-805), the site's proximity to major traffic carriers (i.e.,
Olympic Parkway, Eastlake Parkway, etc.), existing traffic patterns, presence of traffic signals,
ingress/egress availability at the project site and the locations of employment centers, schools and
other retail opportunities.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
25
Retail Distribution
The distribution for the retail portion of this Project is based on the availability of access to the nearest
freeways (SR 125 and the non-toll I 805), the site's proximity to major traffic carriers (i.e., Olympic
Parkway, Eastlake Parkway, etc.), existing traffic patterns, presence of traffic signals, and
ingress/egress availability at the project site.
As mentioned above in section 8.1.5 Trip Reduction due to Mixed Uses and Transit, the distribution
and assignment does not assume any internal interaction between the retail and residential uses for a
conservative analysis.
The analysis being performed is a plan-to-ground comparison and does not account for the internal
interaction between retail and residential uses. The proposed development is consistent with the
entitled uses in terms of traffic generation.
Figure 8–1 depicts the distribution of the Project Residential trips. Figure 8–2 depicts the distribution
of the Project Retail trips. Figure 8–3 depicts the Project Residential trips assignment. Figure 8–4
depicts the Project Retail trips assignment. Figure 8–5 depicts the Existing + Project Residential traffic
volumes and Figure 8–6 depicts the Existing + Project Residential + Retail traffic volumes.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
26
TABLE 8-1
PROJECT TRIP GENERATION
Land Use Size Daily Trip Ends (ADT) AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Trip Rate a Volume Rate
/KSF
In:Out
Split %
Volume Rate
/KSF
In:Out
Split %
Volume
In Out Total In Out Total
Entitled Land Use
Super Regional Shopping Center 960 KSF 35 / KSF 33,600 4% 70:30 941 403 1,344 10% 50:50 1,680 1,680 3,360
Total Site
Super Regional Shopping Center
Existing 669.7 KSF 35 / KSF 23,440 4% 70:30 657 281 938 10% 50:50 1,172 1,172 2,344
Proposed 146.3 KSF 35 / KSF 5,120 4% 70:30 144 61 205 10% 50:50 256 256 512
Proposed Apartments 840 DU 6 / DU 5,040 8% 20:80 81 323 404 9% 70:30 318 136 454
Total Site (Including Existing) - 33,600 - - 882 665 1,547 - - 1,746 1,564 3,310
Mixed Use Reduction b 10% 1,016 10% 23 38 61 10% 57 39 96
Total With Mixed-Use Reduction 32,584 859 627 1,486 1,689 1,525 3,214
Transit Reduction b 5% 457 5% 10 17 27 5% 26 18 44
Total With Mixed-Use and Transit Reduction 32,127 849 610 1,459 1,663 1,507 3,170
Net Difference (Proposed versus Entitled) - - - - (59) 262 203 - - 66 (116) (50)
Footnotes:
a. Trip rates from SANDAG's (Not So) Brief Guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego Region.
b. Per Table 6.2 Unconstrained internal Person Trip Capture Rates for Trip Destinations within a Mixed-Use Development, the average Residential to Restaurant and Residential to Cinema / Entertainment
trips are 18.5% in the AM (average of 17% and 20%) and 12% in the PM peak hour (average of 10% and 14%) respectively. See Appendix E. Daily rates are not given and hence not shown. The Mixed-
Use reduction shown in the table is not applied in the analysis.
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAve
B i r c h Rd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:29 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Figure 8-1
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
Study Intersection
Inbound Trip Distribution
Outbound Trip Distribution
Regional Trip Distribution
#
XX %
DJL
djl
Project Residential Traffic Distribution
?
?
?
?
?
?
l
D
L d
j
jD
L
L
d J
l
j
j
LJ
l j
J
D
l
D
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch RdBirch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
1 2
3 4
87
65
10%
55%
5%
5%
5%
15%15%
30%
25%
5%
5%
10%
55%10%
10%
5%
15%
15%
15%5%25%
5%
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
55
%
1
5
%
40%
1 5 %
10%
5
%
5 %
65%
1 5 %
1
5
%
25%
5%
3 0 %5%
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAve
B i r c h Rd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:24 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Figure 8-2
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
35
%
1
5
%
15%
2 0 %
10%
1
0
%
1 0 %
45%
1 5 %
1
0
%
30%
15%
5%
5
%
10%
Study Intersection
Inbound Trip Distribution
Outbound Trip Distribution
Regional Trip Distribution
#
XX %
DJL
djl
2 5 %
Project Retail Traffic Distribution
5%
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
?
?
?
?
?
?
l
D
L d
J J
j jd
L
L
d J
l
j
j
LJ
l j j
JJ
D
l j d L
JD Dl
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch RdBirch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
1 2
3 4
87
65
10%
35%
5%
10%
5%
10%
10%15%
25%
20%
10%
5%
5%5%5%
5%
10%
35%
10%
5%
5%
10%
15%
10%
15%
10%
5%20%
5%
5%
5%
5%
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAveBirchRd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:16 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Project Residential Traffic VolumesFigure 8-3
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
?
?
?
?
?
?
L
D
L D
J
JD
L
L
D J
L
J
J
LJ
L J
J
D
L
D
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch RdBirch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
32 / 14
8 / 32
45 / 175
178 / 75
16 / 7
16 / 7
8 / 32
8 / 32
4 / 16
16 / 7 12 / 48
48 / 2048 / 20
97 / 41
12 / 48
12 / 48
81 / 34
16 / 7
4 / 1620 / 80
16 / 7
4 / 16
1 2
3 4
87
65
Study Intersections
Intersection AM/PM Peak Hour Volumes
#
DJL
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAve
B i r c h Rd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:17 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Project Retail Traffic VolumesFigure 8-4
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
?
?
?
?
?
?
L
D
L D
J J
J
JD
L
L
D J
L
J
J
LJ
L J J
J
J
D
L J D L
JD DL
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch RdBirch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
6 / 26
14 / 26
50 / 90
21 / 90
14 / 26
7 / 13
3 / 13
6 / 26
3 / 13
7 / 13
14 / 26
6 / 26 22 / 39
6 / 269 / 38
12 / 51
14 / 27
22 / 39
12 / 51
6 / 26
3 / 13
14 / 26
7 / 1329 / 51
3 / 13
3 / 13
3 / 13
7 / 13
7 / 13
7 / 13
7 / 13
3 / 13
1 2
3 4
87
65
Study Intersections
Intersection AM/PM Peak Hour Volumes
#
DJL
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAve
B i r c h Rd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:19 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Existing + Project Residential Traffic VolumesFigure 8-5
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
?
?
?
?
?
?
J
J
L
L J D
J
D
D
L
D L
L
D D
L
J
J
D
L
D J L
J
L J D
L
J
D
LJDD
L
J
L D
J
L
J
L
L
J
LD
L
J
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch RdBirch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
27 / 105
877 / 1,558
160 / 207295 / 582
21 / 113
42 / 116
1,289 / 94620 / 64
265 / 589
147 / 444
252 / 377
40 / 84
63 / 11274 / 211
95 / 218
126 / 326
965 / 606
410 / 907
169 / 346
201 / 285
162 / 396
212 / 517
56 / 130
148 / 806
46 / 236
323 / 885
29 / 153
55 / 556 / 2111 / 10
4 / 13
344 / 715
3 / 32
47 / 217
1 / 246 / 22
168 / 150
123 / 367
750 / 1,349
157 / 75725 / 1,319
60 / 17
300 / 238861 / 1,354
46 / 189
22 / 42
211 / 113662 / 1,603
152 / 314
18 / 81
15 / 63
25 / 53590 / 766104 / 174
60 / 172
29 / 80
346 / 388225 / 413395 / 964114 / 373
20 / 192
1 / 48
7 / 116
15 / 155525 / 7243 / 49
8 / 31
7 / 25
174 / 9256 / 151404 / 86910 / 159
167 / 419
111 / 273
34 / 207
52 / 153244 / 2711 / 1
1 / 4
109 / 253
132 / 23863 / 157167 / 487189 / 372
1 2
3 4
87
65
Study Intersections
Intersection AM/PM Peak Hour Volumes
#
DJL
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
?
K e s t r e l F a ll s R d
S t y l u s S t
TownCenterDr
MilleniaAve
OrionAveBirchRd
E
a
stla
k
e
P
k
y
TransitGuideway
Eastlake
Pky
Olympic Pky
Olympic Pky
O l y m p i c P k y
Birch R d
1
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
"Ã125
Time: 2:20 PMDate: 7/19/2022N:\3254\Figures Existing + Project Residential + Retail Traffic Volum esFigure 8-6
[
Otay Ra nch Town Center Reimag ined
?
?
?
?
?
?
J
J
L
L J D
J
D
D
L
D L
L
D D
L
J
J
D
L
D J L
J
L J D
L
J
D
LJDD
L
J
L D
J
L
J
L
L
J
LD
L
J
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
L J D
L
J
D
LJD
L
J
D
Birch Rd
Olympic PkwyOlympic Pkwy
Birch RdBirch Rd
Birch Rd
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Eastlake Pkwy
Mall Dwy
Millenia Ave
Orion Ave
SR-125 NB Ramps
Town Center Dr
Kestrel Falls Rd
Mall Dwy
Birch Rd
SR-125 SB Ramps
27 / 105
877 / 1,558
160 / 207295 / 582
21 / 113
42 / 116
1,289 / 94634 / 90
265 / 589
197 / 534
273 / 467
46 / 110
63 / 11274 / 211
95 / 218
126 / 326
972 / 619
413 / 920
169 / 346
208 / 298
165 / 409
218 / 543
56 / 130
162 / 832
60 / 262
323 / 885
29 / 153
55 / 556 / 2111 / 10
4 / 13
344 / 715
3 / 32
53 / 243
1 / 246 / 22
168 / 150
123 / 367
772 / 1,388
163 / 101734 / 1,357
60 / 17
300 / 238873 / 1,405
60 / 216
22 / 42
211 / 113684 / 1,642
164 / 365
24 / 107
15 / 63
25 / 53593 / 779104 / 174
60 / 172
43 / 106
346 / 388225 / 413402 / 977143 / 424
23 / 205
4 / 61
10 / 129
22 / 168525 / 7243 / 49
8 / 31
14 / 38
174 / 9256 / 151404 / 86917 / 172
167 / 419
111 / 273
34 / 207
52 / 153244 / 2711 / 1
1 / 4
109 / 253
139 / 25166 / 170167 / 487189 / 372
1 2
3 4
87
65
Study Intersections
Intersection AM/PM Peak Hour Volumes
#
DJL
NAPFC-1
FC-3
FC-2
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
33
9.0 ANALYSIS OF EXISTING + PROJECT CONDITIONS
9.1 Existing + Project Residential Analysis Peak Hour Intersection Analysis
Table 9–1 summarizes the Existing + Project Residential peak hour intersection operations in the study
area. As shown in Table 9-1, with the addition of Project Residential traffic, the study area
intersections are calculated to continue to operate acceptably at LOS D or better during the AM and
PM peak hours.
Appendix E contains the Existing + Project Residential peak hour intersection analysis worksheets.
9.2 Existing + Project Residential + Retail Peak Hour Intersection Analysis
Table 9–1 summarizes the Existing + Project Residential + Retail peak hour intersection operations in
the study area. As shown in Table 9-1, with the addition of Project Residential and Retail traffic, the
study area intersections are calculated to continue to operate acceptably at LOS D or better during the
AM and PM peak hours except the following:
Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive – LOS E during the PM peak hour
The Project has a substantial effect at the Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive intersection. Provide
signal optimization and Adaptive signal controller at this intersection. This is under discussions with
the City to finalize any changes to the intersection geometry.
Appendix F contains the Existing + Project Residential + Retail peak hour intersection analysis
worksheets.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
34
TABLE 9–1
EXISTING WITH PROJECT INTERSECTION OPERATIONS
Intersection Control
Type
Peak
Hour
Existing Existing + Project
Residential
Traffic
Project %
of Entering
Volume
Effect
Type
Existing + Project
Residential + Retail
Traffic
Project %
of Entering
Volume
Effect Type
Delaya LOSb Delay LOS Delay LOS
1. Olympic Pkwy /
Town Center Dr
Signal AM 18.8 B 28.4 C 8% None 29.1 C 10% None
PM 48.5 D 53.7 D 6% None 59.7 E 10% Substantial
2. Olympic Pkwy /
Eastlake Pkwy
Signal
AM 37.0 D 37.5 D 2% None 37.7 D 3% None
PM 47.8 D 48.5 D 2% None 48.7 D 4% None
3. Kestrel Falls Rd /
Eastlake Pkwy
Signal AM 12.9 B 13.5 B 2% None 13.6 B 4% None
PM 20.2 C 20.4 C 1% None 20.9 C 3% None
4. Birch Rd /
SR-125 SB Ramps
Signal AM 7.3 A 7.4 A 5% None 7.4 A 7% None
PM 11.3 B 11.3 B 3% None 11.4 B 6% None
5. Birch Rd /
SR-125 NB Ramps
Signal AM 2.4 A 2.7 A 6% None 3.0 A 8% None
PM 5.1 A 6.3 A 4% None 7.1 A 7% None
6. Birch Rd /
Millenia Ave
Signal AM 20.7 C 22.5 C 6% None 23.2 C 9% None
PM 34.4 C 37.3 D 4% None 41.1 D 8% None
7. Birch Rd /
Orion Ave
Signal AM 11.9 B 12.8 B 2% None 13.7 B 4% None
PM 21.4 C 21.7 C 1% None 22.7 C 8% None
CONTINUED ON THE NEXT PAGE
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
35
TABLE 9–1
EXISTING WITH PROJECT INTERSECTION OPERATIONS
Intersection Control
Type
Peak
Hour
Existing Existing + Project
Residential Traffic
Project %
of Entering
Volume
Effect
Type
Existing + Project
Residential + Retail
Traffic
Project %
of Entering
Volume
Effect
Type
Delaya LOSb Delay LOS Delay LOS
CONTINUED FROM THE PREVIOUS PAGE
8. Birch Rd /
Eastlake Pkwy
Signal AM 29.9 C 29.9 C 0% None 32.9 C 1% None
PM 52.6 D 53.5 D 0% None 54.3 D 1% None
Footnotes:
a. Average delay expressed in seconds per vehicle.
b. Level of Service.
c. Intersection does not exist under Existing conditions. The Project driveway will be signalized.
SIGNALIZED
Delay LOS
0.0 ≤ 10.0 A
10.1 to 20.0 B
20.1 to 35.0 C
35.1 to 55.0 D
55.1 to 80.0 E
≥ 80.1 F
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
36
10.0 ACCESS ASSESSMENT
As described previously, the Project is located within the Otay Ranch Town Center. The site has
several access options. Freeway access to SR-125 is provided by Olympic Parkway to the north and
Birch Road to the South. Surface road access is provided by Olympic Parkway to the north, Eastlake
Parkway to the east and Birch Road to the south.
Adequate access is provided with all access driveways / intersections being signalized and providing
signalized pedestrian crossings.
Figure 2-2 Site Plan depicts the project access.
LINSCOTT, LAW & GREENSPAN, engineers LLG Ref. 3-20-3254
Otay Ranch Town Center Reimagined
N:\3254 - Otay Ranch Town Center\Report\1. Jun 2023\Jun 2023 LMA.3254 - Clean.docx
37
11.0 CONCLUSIONS
As described in Section 3, a VMT analysis is not required for this Project. The Mobility analysis
concluded that the Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive intersection will operate at an unacceptable
LOS E with the addition of Project traffic.
Olympic Parkway / Town Center Drive
Provide signal optimization and Adaptive signal controller at this intersection. The ultimate
intersection geometry at this intersection is being finalized by the City.
In addition to the above, the project should dedicate right-of-way along the project frontages on Birch
Road and Olympic Parkway to accommodate future implementation of Class IV Cycle Tracks in
accordance with the City’s Active Transportation Plan.