HomeMy WebLinkAboutAttachment 05i - Fiscal Impact Analysis Summary ReportOTAY RANCH VILLAGE 8 EAST
City of Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model
Summary Report
APRIL 2024
Prepared for:
HomeFed Otay Land II, LLC
1903 Wright Place, Suite 220
Carlsbad, CA 92008
760-602-3780
Prepared by:
Development Planning & Financing Group, Inc.
26840 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 110
Aliso Viejo, CA 92656
949-388-9269
RH Consulting Group
ranie@rhconsultinggroup.com
619-823-1494
Page Left Blank Intentionally
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Background & Purpose .................................................................................................... 1
1.2 City Net Fiscal Impact Model .......................................................................................... 2
1.3 Village 8 East Historic Development ............................................................................... 3
1.4 Proposed Village 8 East Amendments (Proposed Project) .............................................. 3
1.5 Summary of Findings – Proposed Project ........................................................................ 6
1.6 Summary of Finding – Historic Land Uses ...................................................................... 7
2.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 9
2.1 Background & Purpose .................................................................................................... 9
2.2 Project Location ............................................................................................................... 9
2.3 Proposed Project ............................................................................................................... 9
2.4 City Fiscal Model ........................................................................................................... 13
3.0 Adjustments to Fiscal Model ............................................................................................. 13
3.1 Property Tax – Growth in Assessed Valuation .............................................................. 13
3.2 Property Valuation ......................................................................................................... 15
3.2.1 Residential Valuation Assumptions ........................................................................ 15
3.2.2 Non-Residential Valuation Assumptions ................................................................ 16
TABLES
1 Proposed Village 8 East Site Utilization Plan 5
2 Summary of Proposed Project Net Fiscal Revenue 7
3 Summary of Historic Project Net Fiscal Revenue 8
4 Total Assessed Value after Turn-Over – Proposed Project 15
FIGURES
1 Proposed Village 8 East Site Utilization Plan 4
2 Regional Location Map 10
3 Vicinity Map 11
4 Village 8 East Aerial Map 12
5 Chula Vista Residential Market Overview 2012-2021 14
6 San Diego Home Price Index 2010-2021 14
Page ii April 2024
ATTACHMENTS
A Village 8 East City Fiscal Model and Summary of Adjustment to City of Chula
Vista Fiscal Impact Analysis Model – Proposed Project Scenario
B Village 8 East City Fiscal Model and Summary of Adjustment to City of Chula
Vista Fiscal Impact Analysis Model – Historic Land Uses Scenario
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 1 April 2024
1.0 Executive Summary
1.1 Background & Purpose
Otay Ranch Village 8 East is a 572-acre mixed use village located in the southern portion of Otay
Ranch (“Village 8 East”). HomeFed Otay Land II, LLC (“HomeFed”) is currently pursuing
entitlements which would amend land uses within Village 8 East (“Proposed Project”).
Otay Ranch Village 8 East is south of the extension of Main Street, north of the Otay River Valley,
east of Village 8 West and west of SR-125. This urban village was originally approved by the
Chula Vista City Council in 2014 and subsequently amended in 2020. Current entitlements
accommodate a total of 3,276 residential units, including 943 detached homes, 1,893 attached
homes and 440 multi-family units in a mixed-use setting, 20,000 square feet of retail/commercial
uses, an elementary school site, a neighborhood park and the 51.5-acre (gross) Otay Ranch
Community Park South. Access to the village is provided via the extension of Main Street and La
Media Parkway with emergency and pedestrian access to the community park provided along a
utility corridor in the southeast portion of Village 8 East. Primary access to the community park is
via existing Avenida Caprise within Village 8 West.
HomeFed Otay Land II, LLC, (Applicant), proposes to amend the Village 8 East land use plan to
reflect current market conditions and housing needs and to ensure the community relates more
closely to the adjacent Village 8 West community and future Village 9 planned east of SR-125.
The replanning effort also addresses the redesign of the SR-125 interchanges at Main Street and
La Media Parkway.
Village 8 East Proposed Land Use: The Proposed Village 8 East Land Use Plan would include
a Village Core area that would accommodate a mix of uses including multi-family residential and
retail/commercial uses along with an elementary school site and a centrally located 7.3-acre
neighborhood park. A future multi-modal bridge, planned to accommodate Neighborhood Electric
Vehicles (NEV), bicycles and pedestrians is also planned in the Village Core linking Village 8
East and future Village 9.
The proposed project would include 20,000 square feet of commercial/retail uses 336 single-family
homes, 275 senior housing (55+), and 1,328 for-sale townhomes. Other residential land uses
include 1,073 multi-family residential units. The elementary school site has an underlying “High”
residential land use designation that could accommodate 264 multi-family units if the site is not
utilized as a school site.
The project also includes 253.6 acres of Preserve Open Space, 16.4 acres of manufactured
slopes/basins and the 22.6-acre active recreation site (AR-11) located east of SR-125. The 43.3-
acre (gross) Otay Ranch Community Park South is located south of Village 8 East. An existing
water quality basin that serves Village 8 West is located in the western portion of the community
park and the proposed project includes an additional water quality basin in the eastern portion of
the community park to serve Village 8 East.
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 2 April 2024
In order to provide fiscal revenue information pertinent to the City’s evaluation of the Proposed
Project, the City requested that HomeFed prepare a summary of the City’s Net Fiscal Impact Model
to estimate the fiscal impacts of both the Proposed Project and Historic Land Use scenarios.
HomeFed retained Development Planning & Financing Group (“DPFG”) to prepare the City’s Net
Fiscal Impact Model and RH Consulting Group to prepare this summary which includes the
following:
• DPFG prepared a fiscal impact analysis using the Fiscal Year 2023/2024 City’s Fiscal
Impact Model (“Fiscal Model”) for both the Proposed Project and Historic Land Uses
scenarios. In order to provide the most conservative model outcomes, DPFG assumed
build-out of all residential units but did not include commercial development in either
model.
• DPFG utilized the Fiscal Model to prepare an analysis.
• DPFG adjusted the Fiscal Model to account for property turnover and reassessment of
property taxes upon turnover/resale that will occur.
• DPFG adjusted the Fiscal Model to account for HOA maintained parks that will offset
anticipated City park expenditures.
• The adjusted Fiscal Model indicates the following:
o The Proposed Project scenario generates positive City revenues from years 1
through 20 and approximately $48,014,928 in cumulative net positive revenue over
20 years; and
o The Historic Land Uses scenario generates positive City revenues from years 1
through 20 and approximately $70,520,087 in cumulative net positive revenue over
20 years.
• The Fiscal Model demonstrates that municipal revenues from the Proposed Project would
fully offset the cost of providing municipal services, while generating net positive revenues
to the City.
1.2 City Net Fiscal Impact Model
This report summarizes the Fiscal Model outputs prepared for the City. The Proposed Project
Fiscal Model and Historic Land Use Fiscal Model outputs are provided as Attachments “A” and
B” respectively. The Fiscal Models were adjusted to incorporate the following assumptions:
1. The home prices used in the Fiscal Models are based on actual Village 8 West home sales
that occurred between March 2022 and January 2023.
2. An increase in the assessed value of residential property due to turnover (resale) was
estimated using an annual escalation factor of 3.5%, which is consistent with the historical
average of several recognized indices, including Case Shiller, California Association of
Realtors, Federal Reserve, and Zillow. An escalation factor of 3.5% is considered
conservative as available historic information between 1992 and 2022 has shown an
average compound growth rate in home prices of 4.00% and 5.50%.
3. Average turnover (resale) of eight years was assumed for all residential units for the
purpose of adjusting the assessed values to calculate property taxes. This turnover
assumption is reasonable as information on the typical homeowner from the National
Association of Realtors shows that the typical duration for owning a townhome or detached
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 3 April 2024
single-family home is 6-8 years. In addition to typical turnover, in order to reflect similar
assessed value increases over build-out of the residential portion of both Fiscal Model
scenarios, the initial (year 1) home price assumption is increased by 3.5% until the initial
year of sale for each unit which is then assumed to be the initial base year value. Over the
next seven years, the base year value escalates by 2% over the prior year, consistent with
California Constitution Article XIII A Section 2(b). In year eight, the initial base year value
is reset assuming a reset of the assessed value based on an escalation factor of 3.5%. For
the purposes of preparing the most conservative fiscal impact analysis, the Fiscal Models
assumed no commercial or industrial turnover.
4. Land use assumption for the two scenarios are as follows:
Proposed Project:
• 1,928 for-sale homes
• 900 for-rent apartment homes
• 275 affordable housing apartment homes
• 173 for rent townhomes
• 20,000 SF Commercial
Historic Land Uses:
• 943 for-sale homes
• 2,333 for-rent apartment homes
• 20,000 SF Commercial
1.3 Village 8 East existing Development
The Village 8 East site is vacant and undeveloped.
1.4 Proposed Village 8 East Amendments (Proposed Project)
Amendments to the Chula Vista General Plan (CVGP), Otay Ranch General Development Plan
(GDP), the Village 8 East SPA Plan, a Zoning change and a new tentative map are necessary to
implement the Proposed Project. The proposed project would change the residential product types
within Village 8 East. The Medium Residential category would be eliminated and Medium High,
High Village Core Residential would be implemented within Village 8 East. The proposed
project’s unit count would remain consistent with the Historic entitlement of 3,276 units. The
proposed project would establish a range of commercial uses within 20,000 square feet.
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 4 April 2024
Figure 1
Proposed Village 8 East Site Utilization Plan
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 5 April 2024
Table 1: Proposed Village 8 East Site Utilization Plan
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 6 April 2024
1.5 Summary of Findings – Proposed Project
Based on the adjusted Fiscal Model, the Proposed Project is estimated to generate between
approximately $452,114 and $3,573,837 per year in net City municipal revenues during the first
20 years of operation and a cumulative total net revenue of approximately $48,014,928 over the
same period. A summary of the Fiscal Model outcome for the Proposed Project is provided in
Table 2: Summary of Proposed Project Net Fiscal Revenue.
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 7 April 2024
Table 2: Summary of Proposed Project Net Fiscal Revenue
Year
Net Fiscal
Revenue
(unadjusted)
Net Fiscal
Revenue
(adjusted)
Cumulative Net
Fiscal Revenue
1 $ 452,114 $ 452,114 $ 452,114
2 923,941 1,034,795 1,486,909
3 1,259,130 1,382,130 2,869,039
4 1,638,433 1,780,343 4,649,382
5 2,012,433 2,177,819 6,827,201
6 2,004,875 2,171,469 8,998,670
7 1,985,833 2,153,709 11,152,379
8 1,975,733 2,210,425 13,362,804
9 1,974,607 2,279,797 15,642,601
10 2,029,711 2,409,187 18,051,788
11 2,086,523 2,544,230 20,596,018
12 2,137,890 2,670,075 23,266,093
13 2,187,676 2,728,404 25,994,497
14 2,238,676 2,788,119 28,782,616
15 2,290,441 2,848,773 31,631,390
16 2,342,972 2,984,959 34,616,349
17 2,396,525 3,126,452 37,742,801
18 2,450,964 3,273,290 41,016,091
19 2,505,640 3,425,010 44,441,101
20 2,561,516 3,573,827 48,014,928
1.6 Summary of Finding – Historic Land Uses
Based on the adjusted Fiscal Model, the Historic Land Use is estimated to generate between
approximately $555,956 and $5,298,778 per year in net City municipal revenues during the first
20 years of operation and a cumulative total net revenue of approximately $70,520,087 over the
same period. A summary of the Fiscal Model outcome for the Proposed Project is provided in
Table 3: Summary of Historic Project Net Fiscal Revenue.
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 8 April 2024
Table 3: Summary of Historic Project Net Fiscal Revenue.
Year
Net Fiscal
Revenue
(unadjusted)
Net Fiscal
Revenue
(adjusted)
Cumulative Net
Fiscal Revenue
1 $ 555,956 $ 555,956 $ 555,956
2 1,152,727 1,262,028 1,817,984
3 1,605,256 1,729,294 3,547,278
4 2,111,487 2,258,455 5,805,733
5 2,661,390 2,840,072 8,645,805
6 3,040,775 3,247,586 11,893,391
7 3,048,961 3,257,864 15,151,255
8 3,063,273 3,353,910 18,505,165
9 3,085,273 3,462,063 21,967,228
10 3,163,996 3,631,546 25,598,774
11 3,244,940 3,808,049 29,406,823
12 3,320,923 3,984,591 33,391,414
13 3,395,839 4,134,266 37,525,680
14 3,472,511 4,223,663 41,749,343
15 3,550,499 4,314,630 46,063,973
16 3,629,814 4,497,677 50,561,650
17 3,710,727 4,687,564 55,249,214
18 3,793,112 4,884,380 60,133,594
19 3,876,334 5,087,715 65,221,309
20 3,961,369 5,298,778 70,520,087
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 9 April 2024
2.0 Introduction
2.1 Background & Purpose
HomeFed is currently pursuing entitlements that would amend the land uses within Village 8 East
to address market changes. In order to provide fiscal analyses to assist the City in their evaluation
of the Proposed Project, the City requested that HomeFed provide a Net Fiscal Model for two
scenarios: Proposed Project and Historic Land Uses. HomeFed retained DPFG to prepare two
Fiscal Models and RH Consulting to prepare this summary report.
2.2 Project Location
The Village 8 East SPA Plan Area is located at the southwestern portion of the Otay Valley Parcel
of Otay Ranch. Figure 2 illustrates the regional location of the SPA Plan area; Figure 3 illustrates
the vicinity and Figure 4 provides an aerial map of the Village 8 East Project Area.
Otay Ranch Village 8 East is south of the extension of Main Street, north of the Otay River Valley,
east of Village 8 West and west of SR-125. Future development in the vicinity of Village 8 East
includes Otay Ranch Villages 4, 8 West (currently under construction) and 9 to the east. Historic
Village 7 and Olympian High School are located to the north.
2.3 Proposed Project
The Proposed Project would modify the residential mix within Village 8 East and include 20,000
sf of commercial uses within the village core. Other proposed changes include implementation of
the modified SR-125 interchange couplet between Main Street and La Media Parkway, a minor
realignment of La Media Parkway and minor internal circulation changes. The total assessed value
of the Village 8 East Proposed Project is estimated to be approximately $2,912,282,079 (year 20)
per the City fiscal impact analysis model.
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 10 April 2024
Figure 2
Regional Location Map
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 11 April 2024
Figure 3
Vicinity Map
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 12 April 2024
Figure 4
Village 8 East Aerial Map
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 13 April 2024
2.4 City Fiscal Model
The Analysis herein is based on the Fiscal Model outputs prepared by DPFG. The Fiscal Model
estimates fiscal impacts based on land uses, employee count, dwelling unit and assessed property
values. All other assumptions in the Fiscal Year 2023/2024 City’s Fiscal Model are constrained
and are not subject to modification. However, DPFG has also prepared an Adjustment to CV
Fiscal Impact Analysis Model for both scenarios which anticipates property turnover (resale)
reassessment of residential properties. For purposes of both scenarios, a residential only fiscal
model estimate was prepared, based on the assumption that commercial development timing is
uncertain at his time.
3.0 Adjustments to Fiscal Model
Based on DPFG’s experience and expertise in utilizing the City Fiscal Model, the following
adjustments to the model and valuation information were implemented in both the Proposed
Project and Historic Land Uses scenarios.
3.1 Property Tax – Growth in Assessed Valuation
The Fiscal Model assumes that property tax growth will be equal to 2.0% based on Proposition 13
statutory limits. However, each of the uses includes for-sale products, each of which will be resold
at varying points in time, that will trigger property tax reassessments based on market values at
the time of each sale. As a result of this residential turnover, while aggregate assessed property
value may lag market value, property tax revenue growth is expected to generally track market
value growth.
The Proposed Project Fiscal Model assumes absorption of the single-family residences to be 450
units per year and is anticipated to occur over a five-year time frame. The Proposed Project also
includes 1,073 multi-family units anticipated to be absorbed over a 7-year period with an estimated
150 units absorbed per year. The Historic Project assumes a 6-year absorption time frame due to
the larger anticipated single family uses and 100 multi-family units absorbed per year with a final
buildout estimated within year 4.
The duration of the initial homebuyer holding period drives the lag between assessed value and
market value, and the rate of turnover determines how closely assessed values track market values.
Information on typical homeowner tenure from the National Association of Realtors suggests a
median tenure of townhome or detached single-family home is 6-8 years. In addition to typical
turnover, in order to reflect similar assessed value increases over build-out of the residential units,
the initial (year 1) home price assumption is increased by 3.5% annually until the initial year of
sale for each unit, which is then assumed to be the initial base year value. Over the next seven
years, the base year value escalates by 2% over the prior year, consistent with California
Constitution Article XIII A Section 2(b). In year eight, the initial base year value is reset to the
then market value based on a cumulative annual escalation factor of 3.5%. For the purposes of
preparing the most conservative fiscal impact analysis, the Fiscal Models assumed no commercial
or industrial turnover. Refer to Table 4: Total Assessed Value after Turnover (Proposed Project).
Summary illustrations of home pricing are provided in Figures 5 and 6.
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 14 April 2024
Source: Zillow.com
Figure 5
Chula Vista Residential Market Overview 2015 - 2022
Figure 6
San Diego Home Price Index 2010 - 2022
Source: Case-Shiller San Diego Index
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 15 April 2024
Table 4: Total Assessed Value after Turnover (Proposed Project)
Year
Total High Density
Total Med-High
Density (SF) Assessed
Value After Turnover
Total Assessed
Value
(MF) Assessed Value
After
Turnover
1 $ - $ 308,806,485 $ 308,806,485
2 - 634,597,327 634,597,327
3 - 978,090,501 978,090,501
4 - 1,340,031,581 1,340,031,581
5 - 1,643,234,998 1,643,234,998
6 - 1,676,099,698 1,676,099,698
7 - 1,709,621,692 1,709,621,692
8 - 1,795,731,713 1,795,731,713
9 - 1,885,381,049 1,885,381,049
10 - 1,978,704,087 1,978,704,087
11 - 2,075,840,125 2,075,840,125
12 - 2,163,826,695 2,163,826,695
13 - 2,207,103,229 2,207,103,229
14 - 2,251,245,294 2,251,245,294
15 - 2,296,270,200 2,296,270,200
16 - 2,401,219,139 2,401,219,139
17 - 2,510,332,881 2,510,332,881
18 - 2,623,767,026 2,623,767,026
19 - 2,741,682,816 2,741,682,816
20 - 2,849,346,547 2,849,346,547
3.2 Property Valuation
DPFG utilized a combination of actual sales, comparable sales and income method calculations to
determine property valuations for the residential (for-sale), residential (apartments) and
commercial land uses within Village 8 East.
3.2.1 Residential Valuation Assumptions
For-Sale Residential:
For-sale residential Historic values were calculated based on actual Village 8 West sales/closing
prices across several for-sale product types. Sales within Village 8 West began in 2021 and final
closings occurred in 2022. DPFG calculated the average 2022 home value by escalating yearly
closing prices by approximately 2% per year which resulted in a weighted average value for all 3
years of $875,000/residential unit for the Historic single family detached units. A similar approach
was used for the other land uses, which resulted in an average price of $690,000 for the townhomes
units. This derived weighted average value was applied to units for both the Proposed Land Use
and Historic Project Fiscal Model scenarios.
Chula Vista Net Fiscal Impact Model Summary Report
Otay Ranch Village 8 East SPA Amendment
Page 16 April 2024
Rental Apartments and Affordable:
There are currently 440 apartment units anticipated to be constructed in the Historic Land Use.
The Proposed Use is anticipated to include 1,125 market-rate apartments units. In order to
determine the assessed value of both the Historic and proposed apartment units in Village 8 East,
DPFG identified two comparable apartment project sales: Pulse Millenia, a 273-apartment unit
project, sold in 2016/17 for $98.9 million (average value of $362,000/apartment unit); and Alexan
Millenia, a 309-apartment unit project, sold in 2019 for $131 million (average value of
$424,000/apartment unit). DPFG calculated a conservative assessed value by escalating the per
unit value of the comparable projects by approximately 5.5% over a 2.25-year period, which
resulted in a rounded value of $475,000/apartment unit. This was then adjusted down to $450,000
based on the anticipated size of the apartment units. This escalation factor is consistent with the
San Diego rental market data in the Census ACS Survey and per the CBRE 2021 Multifamily U.S.
Real Estate Market Outlook report. This estimated value was utilized for rental apartment units in
both the Proposed Project and Historic Land Uses Fiscal Model scenarios.
3.2.2 Non-Residential Valuation Assumptions
The Historic Land Uses scenario includes 20,000 SF of commercial uses within the mixed-use
area. The Proposed Project would also include 20,000 SF of commercial uses within the Village
8 East village core area. For the purposes of this analysis the non-residential components were not
analyzed
ATTACHMENT A
VILLAGE 8 EAST CHULA VISTA FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS MODEL AND
SUMMARY OF ADJUSTMENTS TO CHULA VISTA FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
MODEL
PROPOSED LAND USE SCENARIO
PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Single Family Residential 1,260 2,520 3,780 5,040 6,168 6,168 6,168
Multi-Family Residential 420 840 1,260 1,680 2,100 2,520 2,940
Total (Per Capita Base)1,680 3,360 5,040 6,720 8,268 8,688 9,108
Employment Population 84 168 252 336 413 434 455
Totals 1,764 3,528 5,292 7,056 8,682 9,123 9,564
Single Family Residential 450 900 1,350 1,800 2,203 2,203 2,203
Multi-Family Residential 150 300 450 600 750 900 1,050
Totals 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 2,953 3,103 3,253
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV 475,292$ 969,595$ 1,483,480$ 2,017,533$ 2,528,237$ 2,672,703$ 2,821,938$
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita 255,059 517,158 786,637 1,063,842 1,327,990 1,416,042 1,506,735
Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific - - - - - - -
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita 52,071 105,473 158,609 212,067 261,721 275,914 290,264
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific 273,856 616,623 972,969 1,343,301 1,697,440 1,797,619 1,901,103
Franchise Fees Per Capita 82,467 165,587 249,426 334,047 412,940 436,046 459,468
Other Taxes Per Capita 38,171 77,814 115,969 152,179 184,933 191,974 198,862
Subtotal Tax Revenues 1,176,916 2,452,250 3,767,090 5,122,969 6,413,261 6,790,298 7,178,369
Other Revenues Per Capita 21,672 18,451 28,543 39,605 47,998 49,690 51,333
Licenses and Permits Per Capita 11,110 19,511 29,390 39,361 47,704 49,385 51,017
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita 5,843 15,342 23,109 30,949 37,509 38,831 40,114
Use of Money & Property Per Capita 21,617 42,555 62,843 82,514 100,001 103,526 106,948
Charges for Services No Forecast - - - - - - -
Intergovernmental Per Capita 9,078 26,437 39,822 53,332 64,635 66,914 69,126
Subtotal Other Revenues 69,320 122,295 183,709 245,762 297,848 308,346 318,538
Total General Fund Revenues 1,246,236$ 2,574,545$ 3,950,799$ 5,368,730$ 6,711,109$ 7,098,644$ 7,496,908$
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita 24,694$ 51,086$ 77,565$ 104,655$ 130,530$ 138,848$ 147,226$
Community Development (20%)Per Capita 2,689 5,564 8,448 11,398 14,216 15,122 16,035
Public Works/Engineering (20%)Per Capita 23,623 48,870 74,201 100,116 124,869 132,827 140,841
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$ 45,300 90,601 135,901 181,201 222,953 234,278 245,604
Building Management System 4.10 7,001 14,001 21,002 28,003 34,455 36,205 37,956
Parks Management System 15.68 26,797 53,595 80,392 107,190 131,888 138,587 145,287
Open Space Management System 6.72 11,485 22,969 34,454 45,938 56,523 59,395 62,266
Fleet Management System 3.73 6,380 12,761 19,141 25,521 31,402 32,997 34,592
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 24,245 48,491 72,736 96,981 119,327 125,388 131,450
General Govt Management System 0.65 1,117 2,233 3,350 4,466 5,495 5,774 6,054
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 11,485 22,969 34,454 45,938 56,523 59,395 62,266
78.28$ 133,810 267,620 401,430 535,239 658,568 692,020 725,472
Community Services Per Capita 13,579 28,092 42,653 57,549 71,778 76,352 80,959
Public Safety:
Police Services Project Specific 334,262 699,308 1,011,281 1,417,000 1,797,492 1,989,331 2,193,637
Fire Services Project Specific 240,114 505,897 1,009,033 1,413,850 1,788,372 1,929,225 2,079,568
Animal Control Services Per Capita 21,350 44,167 67,059 90,480 112,851 120,043 127,286
Total Public Safety 595,726 1,249,371 2,087,374 2,921,330 3,698,715 4,038,599 4,400,491
Total General Fund Expenditures 794,122$ 1,650,603$ 2,691,670$ 3,730,288$ 4,698,676$ 5,093,768$ 5,511,025$
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$452,114 $923,941 $1,259,130 $1,638,443 $2,012,433 $2,004,875 $1,985,883
Population
Number of Homes
Year
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Total (Per Capita Base)
Employment Population
Totals
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Totals
Year
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita
Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific
Franchise Fees Per Capita
Other Taxes Per Capita
Subtotal Tax Revenues
Other Revenues Per Capita
Licenses and Permits Per Capita
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita
Use of Money & Property Per Capita
Charges for Services No Forecast
Intergovernmental Per Capita
Subtotal Other Revenues
Total General Fund Revenues
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita
Community Development (20%)Per Capita
Public Works/Engineering (20%)Per Capita
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$
Building Management System 4.10
Parks Management System 15.68
Open Space Management System 6.72
Fleet Management System 3.73
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18
General Govt Management System 0.65
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72
78.28$
Community Services Per Capita
Public Safety:
Police Services Project Specific
Fire Services Project Specific
Animal Control Services Per Capita
Total Public Safety
Total General Fund Expenditures
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)
Population
Number of Homes
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168
3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
459 459 459 459 459 459 459 459
9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631
2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203
1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073
3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
2,893,356$ 2,951,223$ 3,010,248$ 3,070,453$ 3,131,862$ 3,194,499$ 3,258,389$ 3,323,557$
1,540,449 1,564,183 1,611,109 1,659,442 1,709,225 1,760,502 1,813,317 1,867,717
- - - - - - - -
293,406 294,564 303,401 312,503 321,878 331,535 341,481 351,725
1,950,627 1,990,754 2,031,684 2,073,432 2,116,015 2,159,450 2,203,754 2,248,944
465,188 467,770 481,803 496,257 511,145 526,479 542,273 558,542
197,931 195,662 201,532 207,578 213,805 220,220 226,826 233,631
7,340,957 7,464,158 7,639,777 7,819,666 8,003,931 8,192,685 8,386,041 8,584,115
50,953 50,231 51,738 53,290 54,889 56,535 58,231 59,978
50,640 49,922 51,420 52,963 54,551 56,188 57,874 59,610
39,817 39,253 40,431 41,644 42,893 44,180 45,505 46,871
106,157 104,653 107,792 111,026 114,357 117,787 121,321 124,961
- - - - - - - -
68,614 67,642 69,671 71,761 73,914 76,131 78,415 80,768
316,181 311,701 321,052 330,684 340,604 350,822 361,347 372,187
7,657,138$ 7,775,859$ 7,960,829$ 8,150,349$ 8,344,535$ 8,543,507$ 8,747,388$ 8,956,302$
150,044$ 151,796$ 155,379$ 159,244$ 163,164$ 167,193$ 171,348$ 175,629$
16,341 16,532 16,923 17,343 17,770 18,209 18,662 19,128
143,537 145,213 148,640 152,338 156,087 159,942 163,917 168,013
247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340
38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224
146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837
132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379
6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602
82,508 83,472 85,442 87,568 89,723 91,939 94,224 96,578
2,277,042 2,333,968 2,392,317 2,452,125 2,513,429 2,576,264 2,640,671 2,706,688
2,151,608 2,208,431 2,267,480 2,326,931 2,394,806 2,467,133 2,541,147 2,617,382
129,722 131,237 134,334 137,676 141,065 144,549 148,141 151,842
4,558,373 4,673,636 4,794,132 4,916,732 5,049,299 5,187,946 5,329,959 5,475,911
5,681,405$ 5,801,251$ 5,931,118$ 6,063,827$ 6,206,646$ 6,355,832$ 6,508,712$ 6,665,861$
$1,975,733 $1,974,607 $2,029,711 $2,086,523 $2,137,890 $2,187,676 $2,238,676 $2,290,441
Year
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Total (Per Capita Base)
Employment Population
Totals
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Totals
Year
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita
Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific
Franchise Fees Per Capita
Other Taxes Per Capita
Subtotal Tax Revenues
Other Revenues Per Capita
Licenses and Permits Per Capita
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita
Use of Money & Property Per Capita
Charges for Services No Forecast
Intergovernmental Per Capita
Subtotal Other Revenues
Total General Fund Revenues
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita
Community Development (20%)Per Capita
Public Works/Engineering (20%)Per Capita
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$
Building Management System 4.10
Parks Management System 15.68
Open Space Management System 6.72
Fleet Management System 3.73
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18
General Govt Management System 0.65
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72
78.28$
Community Services Per Capita
Public Safety:
Police Services Project Specific
Fire Services Project Specific
Animal Control Services Per Capita
Total Public Safety
Total General Fund Expenditures
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)
Population
Number of Homes
16 17 18 19 20
6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168
3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
459 459 459 459 459
9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631
2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203
1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073
3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276
16 17 18 19 20
3,390,028$ 3,457,829$ 3,526,985$ 3,597,525$ 3,669,475$
1,923,748 1,981,461 2,040,904 2,102,132 2,165,196
- - - - -
362,277 373,145 384,340 395,870 407,746
2,295,037 2,342,052 2,390,008 2,438,923 2,488,816
575,298 592,557 610,334 628,644 647,503
240,640 247,859 255,295 262,954 270,842
8,787,028 8,994,903 9,207,866 9,426,046 9,649,578
61,778 63,631 65,540 67,506 69,531
61,398 63,240 65,137 67,091 69,104
48,277 49,725 51,217 52,753 54,336
128,710 132,571 136,548 140,644 144,864
- - - - -
83,191 85,687 88,257 90,905 93,632
383,353 394,854 406,699 418,900 431,467
9,170,381$ 9,389,756$ 9,614,565$ 9,844,946$ 10,081,045$
180,043$ 184,522$ 189,112$ 194,006$ 198,936$
19,609 20,096 20,596 21,129 21,666
172,235 176,519 180,910 185,593 190,308
247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340
38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224
146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837
132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379
6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602
99,005 101,468 103,992 106,683 109,394
2,774,355 2,843,714 2,914,807 2,987,677 3,062,369
2,695,903 2,776,780 2,860,084 2,945,886 3,034,263
155,658 159,530 163,499 167,730 171,992
5,625,916 5,780,024 5,938,389 6,101,293 6,268,623
6,827,409$ 6,993,231$ 7,163,601$ 7,339,307$ 7,519,529$
$2,342,972 $2,396,525 $2,450,964 $2,505,640 $2,561,516
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Single Family Residential
Total Cumulative SFR Units 2,203 450 900 1,350 1,800 2,203 2,203 2,203
Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 1,260 2,520 3,780 5,040 6,168 6,168 6,168
Percentage Complete 20%41%61%82%100%100%100%
Constructed Assessed Values $1,516,230,000 $309,715,615 $619,431,230 $929,146,845 $1,238,862,460 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000
Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units 1,073 150 300 450 600 750 900 1,050
Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 420 840 1,260 1,680 2,100 2,520 2,940
Percentage Complete 14%28%42%56%70%84%98%
Constructed Assessed Values $482,850,000 $67,500,000 $135,000,000 $202,500,000 $270,000,000 $337,500,000 $405,000,000 $472,500,000
Total Cumulative Residents 1,680 3,360 5,040 6,720 8,268 8,688 9,108
Commercial
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Industrial
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Office
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Hotel
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 377,215,615$ 754,431,230$ 1,131,646,845$ 1,508,862,460$ 1,853,730,000$ 1,921,230,000$ 1,988,730,000$
Inflation Factor 2.00%100.00%102.00%104.04%106.12%108.24%110.41%112.62%
Total AV - Inflated $377,215,615 $769,519,855 $1,177,365,378 $1,601,216,914 $2,006,536,968 $2,121,193,162 $2,239,632,988
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)$377,215,615 $769,519,855 $1,177,365,378 $1,601,216,914 $2,006,536,968 $2,121,193,162 $2,239,632,988
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00%0.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated $377,215,615 $769,519,855 $1,177,365,378 $1,601,216,914 $2,006,536,968 $2,121,193,162 $2,239,632,988
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem 1.00%3,772,156$ 7,695,199$ 11,773,654$ 16,012,169$ 20,065,370$ 21,211,932$ 22,396,330$
Total AV Tax Due to City 12.60%$475,292 $969,595 $1,483,480 $2,017,533 $2,528,237 $2,672,703 $2,821,938
Year
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Single Family Residential
Total Cumulative SFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Cumulative Residents
Commercial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Industrial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Office
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Hotel
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions
Inflation Factor
Total AV - Inflated
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem
Total AV Tax Due to City
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203
6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
$1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000
1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073
3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
$482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$
114.87%117.17%119.51%121.90%124.34%126.82%129.36%
$2,296,314,544 $2,342,240,835 $2,389,085,652 $2,436,867,365 $2,485,604,712 $2,535,316,807 $2,586,023,143
$2,296,314,544 $2,342,240,835 $2,389,085,652 $2,436,867,365 $2,485,604,712 $2,535,316,807 $2,586,023,143
2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$2,296,314,544 $2,342,240,835 $2,389,085,652 $2,436,867,365 $2,485,604,712 $2,535,316,807 $2,586,023,143
22,963,145$ 23,422,408$ 23,890,857$ 24,368,674$ 24,856,047$ 25,353,168$ 25,860,231$
$2,893,356 $2,951,223 $3,010,248 $3,070,453 $3,131,862 $3,194,499 $3,258,389
Year
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Single Family Residential
Total Cumulative SFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Cumulative Residents
Commercial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Industrial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Office
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Hotel
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions
Inflation Factor
Total AV - Inflated
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem
Total AV Tax Due to City
15 16 17 18 19 20
2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203 2,203
6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168 6,168
100%100%100%100%100%100%
$1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000 $1,516,230,000
1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073
3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004 3,004
100%100%100%100%100%100%
$482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000 $482,850,000
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$ 1,999,080,000$
131.95%134.59%137.28%140.02%142.82%145.68%
$2,637,743,606 $2,690,498,478 $2,744,308,447 $2,799,194,616 $2,855,178,509 $2,912,282,079
$2,637,743,606 $2,690,498,478 $2,744,308,447 $2,799,194,616 $2,855,178,509 $2,912,282,079
2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$2,637,743,606 $2,690,498,478 $2,744,308,447 $2,799,194,616 $2,855,178,509 $2,912,282,079
26,377,436$ 26,904,985$ 27,443,084$ 27,991,946$ 28,551,785$ 29,122,821$
$3,323,557 $3,390,028 $3,457,829 $3,526,985 $3,597,525 $3,669,475
Village 8 East
Summary of Adjustment to CV Fiscal Impact Analysis Model
November 10, 2023
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated per CV Model 309,715,615$ 631,819,855$ 966,684,378$ 1,314,690,754$ 1,641,216,114$ 1,674,040,436$ 1,707,521,245$ 1,741,671,670$ 1,776,505,103$ 1,812,035,205$
Revised Inflation Assuming 8 year Turnover (a)309,715,615 636,465,589 980,970,011 1,343,976,649 1,689,141,814 1,722,924,650 1,757,383,143 1,844,601,239 1,935,386,161 2,029,873,034
Difference in Assessed Value - 4,645,734 14,285,633 29,285,896 47,925,700 48,884,214 49,861,898 102,929,569 158,881,058 217,837,828
Total Residential Property Tax Increase Due to City [1]-$ 5,854$ 18,000$ 36,900$ 60,386$ 61,594$ 62,826$ 129,691$ 200,190$ 274,476$
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) per CV Model [2]452,114$ 923,941$ 1,259,130$ 1,638,443$ 2,012,433$ 2,004,875$ 1,985,883$ 1,975,733$ 1,974,607$ 2,029,711$
Total Project Projected Net Revenue [1] + [2] = [3]452,114$ 929,795$ 1,277,130$ 1,675,343$ 2,072,819$ 2,066,469$ 2,048,709$ 2,105,425$ 2,174,797$ 2,304,187$
Benefits from HOA Maintained Parks (b)[4]- 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000
Adjusted Total Net Revenues [3] + [4] = [5]452,114$ 1,034,795$ 1,382,130$ 1,780,343$ 2,177,819$ 2,171,469$ 2,153,709$ 2,210,425$ 2,279,797$ 2,409,187$
Cumulative Adjusted Net Revenues 452,114$ 1,486,909$ 2,869,038$ 4,649,381$ 6,827,201$ 8,998,670$ 11,152,379$ 13,362,804$ 15,642,601$ 18,051,788$
Footnotes:
Total Project Net Revenue (Residential Turnover based on DPFG Turnover
Model - Assumes 3.5% Escalation in new Home Pricing)
(a) Assumes 8 year turnover with 2.00% annual escalation and 3.50%
escalation when re-assessed.
(b) Analysis assumes HOA maintained park will be built when first
occupancy is granted and maintenance will commence 1 year after park
construction in year 2. Estimated $14,000 per year for park maintenance
Village 8 East
Summary of Adjustment to CV Fiscal Impact Analysis Model
November 10, 2023
Year
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated per CV Model
Revised Inflation Assuming 8 year Turnover (a)
Difference in Assessed Value
Total Residential Property Tax Increase Due to City [1]
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) per CV Model [2]
Total Project Projected Net Revenue [1] + [2] = [3]
Benefits from HOA Maintained Parks (b)[4]
Adjusted Total Net Revenues [3] + [4] = [5]
Cumulative Adjusted Net Revenues
Footnotes:
Total Project Net Revenue (Residential Turnover based on DPFG Turnover
Model - Assumes 3.5% Escalation in new Home Pricing)
(a) Assumes 8 year turnover with 2.00% annual escalation and 3.50%
escalation when re-assessed.
(b) Analysis assumes HOA maintained park will be built when first
occupancy is granted and maintenance will commence 1 year after park
construction in year 2. Estimated $14,000 per year for park maintenance
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1,848,275,909$ 1,885,241,428$ 1,922,946,256$ 1,961,405,181$ 2,000,633,285$ 2,040,645,951$ 2,081,458,870$ 2,123,088,047$ 2,165,549,808$ 2,208,860,804$
2,128,201,914 2,224,277,205 2,268,762,749 2,314,138,004 2,360,420,764 2,466,826,481 2,577,432,218 2,692,394,492 2,811,875,488 2,928,948,324
279,926,005 339,035,777 345,816,493 352,732,823 359,787,479 426,180,531 495,973,348 569,306,445 646,325,680 720,087,520
352,707$ 427,185$ 435,729$ 444,443$ 453,332$ 536,987$ 624,926$ 717,326$ 814,370$ 907,310$
2,086,523$ 2,137,890$ 2,187,676$ 2,238,676$ 2,290,441$ 2,342,972$ 2,396,525$ 2,450,964$ 2,505,640$ 2,561,516$
2,439,230$ 2,565,075$ 2,623,404$ 2,683,119$ 2,743,773$ 2,879,959$ 3,021,452$ 3,168,290$ 3,320,010$ 3,468,827$
105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000 105,000
2,544,230$ 2,670,075$ 2,728,404$ 2,788,119$ 2,848,773$ 2,984,959$ 3,126,452$ 3,273,290$ 3,425,010$ 3,573,827$
20,596,018$ 23,266,093$ 25,994,497$ 28,782,616$ 31,631,390$ 34,616,349$ 37,742,801$ 41,016,091$ 44,441,101$ 48,014,928$
1 -$ 309,715,615$ 309,715,615$
2 - 636,465,589 636,465,589
3 - 980,970,011 980,970,011
4 - 1,343,976,649 1,343,976,649
5 - 1,689,141,814 1,689,141,814
6 - 1,722,924,650 1,722,924,650
7 - 1,757,383,143 1,757,383,143
8 - 1,844,601,239 1,844,601,239
9 - 1,935,386,161 1,935,386,161
10 - 2,029,873,034 2,029,873,034
11 - 2,128,201,914 2,128,201,914
12 - 2,224,277,205 2,224,277,205
13 - 2,268,762,749 2,268,762,749
14 - 2,314,138,004 2,314,138,004
15 - 2,360,420,764 2,360,420,764
16 - 2,466,826,481 2,466,826,481
17 - 2,577,432,218 2,577,432,218
18 - 2,692,394,492 2,692,394,492
19 - 2,811,875,488 2,811,875,488
20 - 2,928,948,324 2,928,948,324
November 10, 2023
Total Med-High Density
(SF) Assessed Value After
Turnover
Total High Density (MF)
Assessed Value After
Turnover
Total Assessed ValueYear
Village 8 East
Total Assessed Value After Turnover
1 -$ -$ -$ -$
2 - - - -
3 - - - -
4 - - - -
5 - - - -
6 - - - -
7 - - - -
8 Assess - - - -
9 - Assess - - -
10 - - Assess - -
11 - - - -
12 - - - -
13 - - - -
14 - - - -
15 - - - -
16 Assess - - - -
17 - Assess - - -
18 - - Assess - -
19 - - - -
20 - - - -
1 309,715,615$ -$ -$ 309,715,615$
2 315,909,927 320,555,662 - 636,465,589
3 322,228,126 326,966,775 331,775,110 980,970,011
4 328,672,688 333,506,110 338,410,612 1,343,976,649
5 335,246,142 340,176,233 345,178,824 1,689,141,814
6 341,951,065 346,979,757 352,082,401 1,722,924,650
7 348,790,086 353,919,352 359,124,049 1,757,383,143
8 Assess 407,836,321 360,997,739 366,306,530 1,844,601,239
9 415,993,047 Assess 422,110,592 373,632,660 1,935,386,161
10 424,312,908 430,552,804 Assess 436,884,463 2,029,873,034
11 432,799,166 439,163,860 445,622,152 2,128,201,914
12 441,455,150 447,947,137 454,534,595 2,224,277,205
13 450,284,253 456,906,080 463,625,287 2,268,762,749
14 459,289,938 466,044,202 472,897,793 2,314,138,004
15 468,475,736 475,365,086 482,355,749 2,360,420,764
16 Assess 537,042,553 484,872,387 492,002,864 2,466,826,481
17 547,783,404 Assess 555,839,042 501,842,921 2,577,432,218
18 558,739,072 566,955,823 Assess 575,293,409 2,692,394,492
19 569,913,853 578,294,940 586,799,277 2,811,875,488
20 581,312,130 589,860,838 598,535,262 2,928,948,324
Footnotes:
(a) Turnover calculations based on 3.50% escalation and turnover occuring every 8 years. Assumes 2.00% escalation when no turnover event occurs.
Year 1 Units (450 Units)Year 2 Units (450 Units)Year 3 Units (450 Units)
Reassessment
Year
Reassessment
Year
Reassessment
Year
Current
Year
Final Assessed
Value
Final Assessed
Value
Final Assessed
Value
Final Assessed
Value
Final Assessed
Value
Reassessment
Year
Total SF Assessed
Value After Turnover
HIGH DENSITY (MULTIFAMILY UNITS)
MED-HIGH DENSITY (SINGLE FAMILY UNITS)
Assessed Value and Reassessment Year - Breakdown by Absorption Year
November 10, 2023
Total MF Assessed
Value After Turnover
Year 1 Units (0 Units)
Reassessment
Year
Reassessment
Year
Village 8 East
Current
Year
Final Assessed
Value
Year 2 Units (0 Units)Year 3 Units (0 Units)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
High Density (Multifamily)
MF Unit Absorption - - - - - - - - - -
MF AV of Single unit 635,000$ 657,225$ 680,228$ 704,036$ 728,677$ 754,181$ 780,577$ 807,897$ 836,174$ 865,440$
Med-High Density (Single Family)
SF Unit Absorption 450 450 450 450 403 - - - - -
SF AV of Single Unit 688,257$ 712,346$ 737,278$ 763,083$ 789,791$ 817,433$ 846,043$ 875,655$ 906,303$ 938,024$
November 10, 2023
Village 8 East
Initial Home Value by Year
Assumes 3.50% Annual Appreciation
PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY
ATTACHMENT B
VILLAGE 8 EAST CHULA VISTA FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS MODEL AND
SUMMARY OF ADJUSTMENTS TO CHULA VISTA FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
MODEL
HISTORIC LAND USE SCENARIO
PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Single Family Residential 1,400 2,800 4,200 5,600 7,000 7,941 7,941
Multi-Family Residential 280 560 840 1,120 1,232 1,232 1,232
Total (Per Capita Base)1,680 3,360 5,040 6,720 8,232 9,173 9,173
Employment Population 84 168 252 336 412 459 459
Totals 1,764 3,528 5,292 7,056 8,644 9,631 9,631
Single Family Residential 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2,836 2,836
Multi-Family Residential 100 200 300 400 440 440 440
Totals 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 2,940 3,276 3,276
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV 530,154$ 1,081,514$ 1,654,717$ 2,250,415$ 2,832,455$ 3,240,380$ 3,305,187$
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita 255,059 517,158 786,637 1,063,842 1,322,143 1,494,990 1,517,388
Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific - - - - - - -
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita 52,071 105,473 158,609 212,067 260,568 291,296 292,316
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific 311,899 694,232 1,091,711 1,504,789 1,908,396 2,191,265 2,236,205
Franchise Fees Per Capita 82,467 165,587 249,426 334,047 411,123 460,356 462,717
Other Taxes Per Capita 38,171 77,814 115,969 152,179 184,119 202,677 200,268
Subtotal Tax Revenues 1,269,822 2,641,778 4,057,069 5,517,339 6,918,805 7,880,965 8,014,082
Other Revenues Per Capita 21,672 18,451 28,543 39,605 47,787 52,461 51,696
Licenses and Permits Per Capita 11,110 19,511 29,390 39,361 47,494 52,138 51,378
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita 5,843 15,342 23,109 30,949 37,344 40,996 40,398
Use of Money & Property Per Capita 21,617 42,555 62,843 82,514 99,561 109,298 107,704
Charges for Services No Forecast - - - - - - -
Intergovernmental Per Capita 9,078 26,437 39,822 53,332 64,351 70,644 69,614
Subtotal Other Revenues 69,320 122,295 183,709 245,762 296,536 325,537 320,791
Total General Fund Revenues 1,339,142$ 2,764,073$ 4,240,777$ 5,763,101$ 7,215,341$ 8,206,502$ 8,334,872$
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita 24,694$ 51,086$ 77,565$ 104,655$ 129,956$ 146,590$ 148,267$
Community Development (20%)Per Capita 2,689 5,564 8,448 11,398 14,154 15,965 16,148
Public Works/Engineering (20%)Per Capita 23,623 48,870 74,201 100,116 124,320 140,232 141,837
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$ 45,300 90,601 135,901 181,201 221,972 247,340 247,340
Building Management System 4.10 7,001 14,001 21,002 28,003 34,303 38,224 38,224
Parks Management System 15.68 26,797 53,595 80,392 107,190 131,307 146,314 146,314
Open Space Management System 6.72 11,485 22,969 34,454 45,938 56,275 62,706 62,706
Fleet Management System 3.73 6,380 12,761 19,141 25,521 31,264 34,837 34,837
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 24,245 48,491 72,736 96,981 118,802 132,379 132,379
General Govt Management System 0.65 1,117 2,233 3,350 4,466 5,471 6,096 6,096
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 11,485 22,969 34,454 45,938 56,275 62,706 62,706
78.28$ 133,810 267,620 401,430 535,239 655,668 730,602 730,602
Community Services Per Capita 13,579 28,092 42,653 57,549 71,462 80,609 81,531
Public Safety:
Police Services Project Specific 322,787 658,916 952,869 1,335,153 1,660,537 1,879,660 1,934,420
Fire Services Project Specific 240,653 507,032 1,011,298 1,417,022 1,785,501 2,045,334 2,104,921
Animal Control Services Per Capita 21,350 44,167 67,059 90,480 112,354 126,736 128,186
Total Public Safety 584,789 1,210,114 2,031,226 2,842,656 3,558,392 4,051,730 4,167,526
Total General Fund Expenditures 783,185$ 1,611,346$ 2,635,522$ 3,651,614$ 4,553,951$ 5,165,728$ 5,285,911$
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$555,956 $1,152,727 $1,605,256 $2,111,487 $2,661,390 $3,040,775 $3,048,961
Population
Number of Homes
Year
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Total (Per Capita Base)
Employment Population
Totals
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Totals
Year
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita
Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific
Franchise Fees Per Capita
Other Taxes Per Capita
Subtotal Tax Revenues
Other Revenues Per Capita
Licenses and Permits Per Capita
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita
Use of Money & Property Per Capita
Charges for Services No Forecast
Intergovernmental Per Capita
Subtotal Other Revenues
Total General Fund Revenues
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita
Community Development (20%)Per Capita
Public Works/Engineering (20%)Per Capita
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$
Building Management System 4.10
Parks Management System 15.68
Open Space Management System 6.72
Fleet Management System 3.73
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18
General Govt Management System 0.65
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72
78.28$
Community Services Per Capita
Public Safety:
Police Services Project Specific
Fire Services Project Specific
Animal Control Services Per Capita
Total Public Safety
Total General Fund Expenditures
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)
Population
Number of Homes
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941
1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
459 459 459 459 459 459 459 459
9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631
2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836
440 440 440 440 440 440 440 440
3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
3,371,291$ 3,438,717$ 3,507,491$ 3,577,641$ 3,649,194$ 3,722,178$ 3,796,621$ 3,872,554$
1,540,449 1,564,183 1,611,109 1,659,442 1,709,225 1,760,502 1,813,317 1,867,717
- - - - - - - -
293,406 294,564 303,401 312,503 321,878 331,535 341,481 351,725
2,282,044 2,328,799 2,376,490 2,425,134 2,474,752 2,525,361 2,576,983 2,629,637
465,188 467,770 481,803 496,257 511,145 526,479 542,273 558,542
197,931 195,662 201,532 207,578 213,805 220,220 226,826 233,631
8,150,309 8,289,696 8,481,826 8,678,556 8,879,999 9,086,274 9,297,502 9,513,805
50,953 50,231 51,738 53,290 54,889 56,535 58,231 59,978
50,640 49,922 51,420 52,963 54,551 56,188 57,874 59,610
39,817 39,253 40,431 41,644 42,893 44,180 45,505 46,871
106,157 104,653 107,792 111,026 114,357 117,787 121,321 124,961
- - - - - - - -
68,614 67,642 69,671 71,761 73,914 76,131 78,415 80,768
316,181 311,701 321,052 330,684 340,604 350,822 361,347 372,187
8,466,489$ 8,601,397$ 8,802,878$ 9,009,240$ 9,220,604$ 9,437,097$ 9,658,849$ 9,885,993$
150,044$ 151,796$ 155,379$ 159,244$ 163,164$ 167,193$ 171,348$ 175,629$
16,341 16,532 16,923 17,343 17,770 18,209 18,662 19,128
143,537 145,213 148,640 152,338 156,087 159,942 163,917 168,013
247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340
38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224
146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837
132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379
6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602
82,508 83,472 85,442 87,568 89,723 91,939 94,224 96,578
1,987,635 2,037,326 2,088,259 2,140,466 2,193,977 2,248,827 2,305,048 2,362,674
2,162,827 2,219,945 2,279,303 2,339,063 2,407,292 2,479,997 2,554,397 2,631,028
129,722 131,237 134,334 137,676 141,065 144,549 148,141 151,842
4,280,184 4,388,508 4,501,897 4,617,205 4,742,335 4,873,372 5,007,585 5,145,544
5,403,216$ 5,516,124$ 5,638,882$ 5,764,299$ 5,899,681$ 6,041,258$ 6,186,338$ 6,335,494$
$3,063,273 $3,085,273 $3,163,996 $3,244,940 $3,320,923 $3,395,839 $3,472,511 $3,550,499
Year
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Total (Per Capita Base)
Employment Population
Totals
Single Family Residential
Multi-Family Residential
Totals
Year
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita
Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific
Franchise Fees Per Capita
Other Taxes Per Capita
Subtotal Tax Revenues
Other Revenues Per Capita
Licenses and Permits Per Capita
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita
Use of Money & Property Per Capita
Charges for Services No Forecast
Intergovernmental Per Capita
Subtotal Other Revenues
Total General Fund Revenues
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita
Community Development (20%)Per Capita
Public Works/Engineering (20%)Per Capita
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$
Building Management System 4.10
Parks Management System 15.68
Open Space Management System 6.72
Fleet Management System 3.73
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18
General Govt Management System 0.65
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72
78.28$
Community Services Per Capita
Public Safety:
Police Services Project Specific
Fire Services Project Specific
Animal Control Services Per Capita
Total Public Safety
Total General Fund Expenditures
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)
Population
Number of Homes
16 17 18 19 20
7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941
1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
459 459 459 459 459
9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631 9,631
2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836
440 440 440 440 440
3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276
16 17 18 19 20
3,950,005$ 4,029,005$ 4,109,585$ 4,191,777$ 4,275,612$
1,923,748 1,981,461 2,040,904 2,102,132 2,165,196
- - - - -
362,277 373,145 384,340 395,870 407,746
2,683,345 2,738,126 2,794,003 2,850,998 2,909,132
575,298 592,557 610,334 628,644 647,503
240,640 247,859 255,295 262,954 270,842
9,735,312 9,962,153 10,194,461 10,432,373 10,676,031
61,778 63,631 65,540 67,506 69,531
61,398 63,240 65,137 67,091 69,104
48,277 49,725 51,217 52,753 54,336
128,710 132,571 136,548 140,644 144,864
- - - - -
83,191 85,687 88,257 90,905 93,632
383,353 394,854 406,699 418,900 431,467
10,118,665$ 10,357,006$ 10,601,160$ 10,851,273$ 11,107,498$
180,043$ 184,522$ 189,112$ 194,006$ 198,936$
19,609 20,096 20,596 21,129 21,666
172,235 176,519 180,910 185,593 190,308
247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340 247,340
38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224 38,224
146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314 146,314
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837 34,837
132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379 132,379
6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096 6,096
62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706 62,706
730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602 730,602
99,005 101,468 103,992 106,683 109,394
2,421,741 2,482,284 2,544,341 2,607,950 2,673,148
2,709,959 2,791,258 2,874,996 2,961,246 3,050,083
155,658 159,530 163,499 167,730 171,992
5,287,358 5,433,072 5,582,836 5,736,926 5,895,223
6,488,851$ 6,646,279$ 6,808,048$ 6,974,940$ 7,146,129$
$3,629,814 $3,710,727 $3,793,112 $3,876,334 $3,961,369
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Single Family Residential
Total Cumulative SFR Units 2,836 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2,836 2,836
Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 1,400 2,800 4,200 5,600 7,000 7,941 7,941
Percentage Complete 18%35%53%71%88%100%100%
Constructed Assessed Values $2,131,295,000 $375,757,228 $751,514,457 $1,127,271,685 $1,503,028,914 $1,878,786,142 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000
Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units 440 100 200 300 400 440 440 440
Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 280 560 840 1,120 1,232 1,232 1,232
Percentage Complete 23%45%68%91%100%100%100%
Constructed Assessed Values $198,000,000 $45,000,000 $90,000,000 $135,000,000 $180,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000
Total Cumulative Residents 1,680 3,360 5,040 6,720 8,232 9,173 9,173
Commercial
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Industrial
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Office
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Hotel
Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 420,757,228$ 841,514,457$ 1,262,271,685$ 1,683,028,914$ 2,076,786,142$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$
Inflation Factor 2.00%100.00%102.00%104.04%106.12%108.24%110.41%112.62%
Total AV - Inflated $420,757,228 $858,344,746 $1,313,267,462 $1,786,043,748 $2,247,980,110 $2,571,729,894 $2,623,164,492
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)$420,757,228 $858,344,746 $1,313,267,462 $1,786,043,748 $2,247,980,110 $2,571,729,894 $2,623,164,492
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00%0.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated $420,757,228 $858,344,746 $1,313,267,462 $1,786,043,748 $2,247,980,110 $2,571,729,894 $2,623,164,492
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem 1.00%4,207,572$ 8,583,447$ 13,132,675$ 17,860,437$ 22,479,801$ 25,717,299$ 26,231,645$
Total AV Tax Due to City 12.60%$530,154 $1,081,514 $1,654,717 $2,250,415 $2,832,455 $3,240,380 $3,305,187
Year
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Single Family Residential
Total Cumulative SFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Cumulative Residents
Commercial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Industrial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Office
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Hotel
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions
Inflation Factor
Total AV - Inflated
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem
Total AV Tax Due to City
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836
7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
$2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000
440 440 440 440 440 440 440
1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
$198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$
114.87%117.17%119.51%121.90%124.34%126.82%129.36%
$2,675,627,782 $2,729,140,338 $2,783,723,145 $2,839,397,608 $2,896,185,560 $2,954,109,271 $3,013,191,456
$2,675,627,782 $2,729,140,338 $2,783,723,145 $2,839,397,608 $2,896,185,560 $2,954,109,271 $3,013,191,456
2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$2,675,627,782 $2,729,140,338 $2,783,723,145 $2,839,397,608 $2,896,185,560 $2,954,109,271 $3,013,191,456
26,756,278$ 27,291,403$ 27,837,231$ 28,393,976$ 28,961,856$ 29,541,093$ 30,131,915$
$3,371,291 $3,438,717 $3,507,491 $3,577,641 $3,649,194 $3,722,178 $3,796,621
Year
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Single Family Residential
Total Cumulative SFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units
Total Cumulative Residents
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Cumulative Residents
Commercial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Industrial
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Office
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Hotel
Percentage Complete
Constructed Assessed Values
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions
Inflation Factor
Total AV - Inflated
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem
Total AV Tax Due to City
15 16 17 18 19 20
2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836 2,836
7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941 7,941
100%100%100%100%100%100%
$2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000 $2,131,295,000
440 440 440 440 440 440
1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,232
100%100%100%100%100%100%
$198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000 $198,000,000
9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173 9,173
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
0%0%0%0%0%0%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$ 2,329,295,000$
131.95%134.59%137.28%140.02%142.82%145.68%
$3,073,455,285 $3,134,924,391 $3,197,622,879 $3,261,575,337 $3,326,806,843 $3,393,342,980
$3,073,455,285 $3,134,924,391 $3,197,622,879 $3,261,575,337 $3,326,806,843 $3,393,342,980
2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$3,073,455,285 $3,134,924,391 $3,197,622,879 $3,261,575,337 $3,326,806,843 $3,393,342,980
30,734,553$ 31,349,244$ 31,976,229$ 32,615,753$ 33,268,068$ 33,933,430$
$3,872,554 $3,950,005 $4,029,005 $4,109,585 $4,191,777 $4,275,612
Village 8 East
Summary of Adjustment to CV Fiscal Impact Analysis Model
November 10, 2023
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated per CV Model 375,757,228$ 766,544,746$ 1,172,813,462$ 1,595,026,308$ 2,033,658,542$ 2,353,121,895$ 2,400,184,333$ 2,448,188,020$ 2,497,151,780$ 2,547,094,816$
Revised Inflation Assuming 8 year Turnover (a)375,757,228 772,181,105 1,190,145,264 1,630,556,925 2,094,358,126 2,436,146,600 2,484,869,532 2,597,740,494 2,715,079,951 2,837,054,658
Difference in Assessed Value - 5,636,358 17,331,802 35,530,617 60,699,583 83,024,705 84,685,199 149,552,474 217,928,170 289,959,842
Total Residential Property Tax Increase Due to City [1]-$ 7,102$ 21,838$ 44,769$ 76,481$ 104,611$ 106,703$ 188,436$ 274,589$ 365,349$
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) per CV Model [2]555,956$ 1,152,727$ 1,605,256$ 2,111,487$ 2,661,390$ 3,040,775$ 3,048,961$ 3,063,273$ 3,085,273$ 3,163,996$
Total Project Projected Net Revenue [1] + [2] = [3]555,956$ 1,159,828$ 1,627,094$ 2,156,255$ 2,737,872$ 3,145,386$ 3,155,664$ 3,251,710$ 3,359,863$ 3,529,346$
Benefits from HOA maintained Parks (b)[4]- 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200
Adjusted Total Net Revenues [3] + [4] = [5]555,956$ 1,262,028$ 1,729,294$ 2,258,455$ 2,840,072$ 3,247,586$ 3,257,864$ 3,353,910$ 3,462,063$ 3,631,546$
Cumulative Adjusted Net Revenues 555,956$ 1,817,985$ 3,547,278$ 5,805,734$ 8,645,806$ 11,893,391$ 15,151,256$ 18,505,165$ 21,967,228$ 25,598,773$
Footnotes:
Total Project Net Revenue (Residential Turnover based on DPFG Turnover
Model - Assumes 3.5% Escalation in new Home Pricing)
(a) Assumes 8 year turnover with 2.00% annual escalation and 3.50%
escalation when re-assessed.
(b) Analysis assumes HOA maintained park will be built when first
occupancy is granted and maintenance will commence 1 year after park
construction in year 2. Estimated $14,000 per year for park maintenance
Village 8 East
Summary of Adjustment to CV Fiscal Impact Analysis Model
November 10, 2023
Year
Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated per CV Model
Revised Inflation Assuming 8 year Turnover (a)
Difference in Assessed Value
Total Residential Property Tax Increase Due to City [1]
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) per CV Model [2]
Total Project Projected Net Revenue [1] + [2] = [3]
Benefits from HOA maintained Parks (b)[4]
Adjusted Total Net Revenues [3] + [4] = [5]
Cumulative Adjusted Net Revenues
Footnotes:
Total Project Net Revenue (Residential Turnover based on DPFG Turnover
Model - Assumes 3.5% Escalation in new Home Pricing)
(a) Assumes 8 year turnover with 2.00% annual escalation and 3.50%
escalation when re-assessed.
(b) Analysis assumes HOA maintained park will be built when first
occupancy is granted and maintenance will commence 1 year after park
construction in year 2. Estimated $14,000 per year for park maintenance
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2,598,036,712$ 2,649,997,447$ 2,702,997,396$ 2,757,057,343$ 2,812,198,490$ 2,868,442,460$ 2,925,811,309$ 2,984,327,536$ 3,044,014,086$ 3,104,894,368$
2,963,837,419 3,095,607,294 3,207,939,859 3,272,098,656 3,337,540,629 3,476,111,566 3,619,967,626 3,769,302,491 3,924,316,797 4,085,218,378
365,800,707 445,609,847 504,942,463 515,041,313 525,342,139 607,669,106 694,156,317 784,974,956 880,302,711 980,324,010
460,909$ 561,468$ 636,228$ 648,952$ 661,931$ 765,663$ 874,637$ 989,068$ 1,109,181$ 1,235,208$
3,244,940$ 3,320,923$ 3,395,839$ 3,472,511$ 3,550,499$ 3,629,814$ 3,710,727$ 3,793,112$ 3,876,334$ 3,961,369$
3,705,849$ 3,882,391$ 4,032,066$ 4,121,463$ 4,212,430$ 4,395,477$ 4,585,364$ 4,782,180$ 4,985,515$ 5,196,578$
102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200 102,200
3,808,049$ 3,984,591$ 4,134,266$ 4,223,663$ 4,314,630$ 4,497,677$ 4,687,564$ 4,884,380$ 5,087,715$ 5,298,778$
29,406,822$ 33,391,414$ 37,525,680$ 41,749,343$ 46,063,973$ 50,561,650$ 55,249,214$ 60,133,594$ 65,221,309$ 70,520,087$
1 -$ 375,757,228$ 375,757,228$
2 - 772,181,105 772,181,105
3 - 1,190,145,264 1,190,145,264
4 - 1,630,556,925 1,630,556,925
5 - 2,094,358,126 2,094,358,126
6 - 2,436,146,600 2,436,146,600
7 - 2,484,869,532 2,484,869,532
8 - 2,597,740,494 2,597,740,494
9 - 2,715,079,951 2,715,079,951
10 - 2,837,054,658 2,837,054,658
11 - 2,963,837,419 2,963,837,419
12 - 3,095,607,294 3,095,607,294
13 - 3,207,939,859 3,207,939,859
14 - 3,272,098,656 3,272,098,656
15 - 3,337,540,629 3,337,540,629
16 - 3,476,111,566 3,476,111,566
17 - 3,619,967,626 3,619,967,626
18 - 3,769,302,491 3,769,302,491
19 - 3,924,316,797 3,924,316,797
20 - 4,085,218,378 4,085,218,378
November 10, 2023
Total Med-High Density
(SF) Assessed Value After
Turnover
Total High Density (MF)
Assessed Value After
Turnover
Total Assessed ValueYear
Village 8 East
Total Assessed Value After Turnover
1 -$ -$ -$ -$
2 - - - -
3 - - - -
4 - - - -
5 - - - -
6 - - - -
7 - - - -
8 Assess - - - -
9 - Assess - - -
10 - - Assess - -
11 - - - -
12 - - - -
13 - - - -
14 - - - -
15 - - - -
16 Assess - - - -
17 - Assess - - -
18 - - Assess - -
19 - - - -
20 - - - -
1 375,757,228$ -$ -$ 375,757,228$
2 383,272,373 388,908,731 - 772,181,105
3 390,937,821 396,686,906 402,520,537 1,190,145,264
4 398,756,577 404,620,644 410,570,948 1,630,556,925
5 406,731,708 412,713,057 418,782,367 2,094,358,126
6 414,866,343 420,967,318 427,158,014 2,436,146,600
7 423,163,669 429,386,665 435,701,174 2,484,869,532
8 Assess 494,800,514 437,974,398 444,415,198 2,597,740,494
9 504,696,524 Assess 512,118,532 453,303,502 2,715,079,951
10 514,790,455 522,360,903 Assess 530,042,681 2,837,054,658
11 525,086,264 532,808,121 540,643,534 2,963,837,419
12 535,587,989 543,464,283 551,456,405 3,095,607,294
13 546,299,749 554,333,569 562,485,533 3,207,939,859
14 557,225,744 565,420,240 573,735,244 3,272,098,656
15 568,370,259 576,728,645 585,209,949 3,337,540,629
16 Assess 651,557,789 588,263,218 596,914,148 3,476,111,566
17 664,588,944 Assess 674,362,311 608,852,431 3,619,967,626
18 677,880,723 687,849,557 Assess 697,964,992 3,769,302,491
19 691,438,338 701,606,549 711,924,292 3,924,316,797
20 705,267,104 715,638,680 726,162,778 4,085,218,378
Footnotes:
(a) Turnover calculations based on 3.50% escalation and turnover occuring every 8 years. Assumes 2.00% escalation when no turnover event occurs.
HIGH DENSITY (MULTIFAMILY UNITS)
MED-HIGH DENSITY (SINGLE FAMILY UNITS)
Assessed Value and Reassessment Year - Breakdown by Absorption Year
November 10, 2023
Total MF Assessed
Value After Turnover
Year 1 Units (350 Units)
Reassessment
Year
Reassessment
Year
Village 8 East
Current
Year
Final Assessed
Value
Year 2 Units (350 Units)Year 3 Units (350 Units)
Final Assessed
Value
Final Assessed
Value
Reassessment
Year
Total SF Assessed
Value After TurnoverCurrent
Year
Final Assessed
Value
Final Assessed
Value
Final Assessed
Value
Year 1 Units (500 Units)Year 2 Units (500 Units)Year 3 Units (500 Units)
Reassessment
Year
Reassessment
Year
Reassessment
Year
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
High Density (Multifamily)
MF Unit Absorption 350 350 350 350 350 143 - - - -
MF AV of Single unit -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Med-High Density (Single Family)
SF Unit Absorption 500 500 500 500 500 336 - - - -
SF AV of Single Unit 751,514$ 777,817$ 805,041$ 833,218$ 862,380$ 892,563$ 923,803$ 956,136$ 989,601$ 1,024,237$
November 10, 2023
Village 8 East
Initial Home Value by Year
Assumes 3.50% Annual Appreciation
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