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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024/01/22 Post Agenda Packet Date:Monday, January 22, 2024, 6:00 p.m. Location:Southwestern Community College Building 64, Room 238 (Learning Resource Center) 900 Otay Lakes Road Chula Vista, CA 91910 SPECIAL CITY COUNCIL AND GOVERNING BOARD OF SOUTHWESTERN COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT MEETING Notice is hereby given that the Mayor has called and will convene a special meeting of the City Council meeting jointly with the Governing Board of Southwestern Community College District at the time and location stated on this agenda. Southwestern Community College will make this meeting available via Zoom. For more information, visit https://go.boarddocs.com/ca/swccd/Board.nsf/Public _______________________________________________________________________________________ In-Person Public Comments: Submit a request to speak to City Clerk staff at the meeting. Electronic Public Comments: At chulavistaca.gov/councilmeetings, locate the meeting and click the comment bubble icon. Select the item and click "Leave Comment." eComments are accepted until comments on the item are concluded. You may also email cityclerk@chulavistaca.gov. Accessibility: In compliance with the American Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance to participate in this meeting, please contact the City Clerk’s Office at cityclerk@chulavistaca.gov or (619) 691-5041. Providing at least 48 hours' notice will help ensure that reasonable arrangements can be made. Gov. Code § 84308: Parties to any proceeding involving a license, permit, or other entitlement for use pending before the City Council must disclose any campaign contribution over $250 (aggregated) within the preceding 12 months made by the party, their agent, and those required to be aggregated with their contributions under Gov. Code § 82015.5. The disclosure must include the amount contributed and the name(s) of the contributor(s). "G.C. § 84308: Yes" on this agenda indicates that the item is subject to these regulations. Pages 1.CALL TO ORDER 2.ROLL CALL 3.PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE TO THE FLAG AND MOMENT OF SILENCE 4.PRESENTATION The following item may elicit discussion and deliberation. If you wish to speak on the item, please fill out a "Request to Speak" form and submit it to the City Clerk prior to the meeting. 4.1 University Now Initiative Update 3 On May 23, 2023, the City Council approved an agreement with Southwestern Community College District to conduct an academic program planning study to support university recruitment and expansion efforts. The first phase of research consisted of an academic program and workforce needs assessment study. Findings from this research and the next steps will be presented by Southwestern College staff and the lead researcher. Location: No specific geographic location G.C. § 84308: No Environmental Notice: The activity is not a “Project” as defined under Section 15378 of the California Environmental Quality Act State Guidelines. Therefore, pursuant to State Guidelines Section 15060(c)(3) no environmental review is required. RECOMMENDED ACTION: To accept the University Now Initiative report. 5.ADJOURNMENT to the regular City Council meeting on January 23, 2024, at 5:00 p.m. in the Council Chambers. Materials provided to the City Council related to an open-session item on this agenda are available for public review. Please contact the City Clerk at cityclerk@chulavistaca.gov or (619) 691-5041. Sign up at www.chulavistaca.gov to receive email notifications when City Council agendas are published online. City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 2 of 138 Monday, January 22, 2024 Special Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the Chula Vista City Council NOTICE OF SPECIAL JOINT MEETING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT AND THE CITY OF CHULA VISTA DON DUMAS, GOVERNING BOARD RESIDENT KRISTINE GALICIA BROWN, GOVERNING BOARD VICE PRESIDENT ROBERTO ALCANTAR, GOVERNING BOARD MEMBER ROBERT MORENO, GOVERNING BOARD MEMBER CORINA SOTO, GOVERNING BOARD MEMBER JOSE M. PEREZ, STUDENT MEMBER MARK SANCHEZ, Ed.D. SECRETARY TO GOVERNING BOARD AND THE SUPERINTENDENT /PRESIDENT JOHN MCCANN, MAYOR CAROLINA CHAVEZ, COUNCIL MEMBER JOSE PRECIADO, COUNCIL MEMBER ALONSO GONZALEZ, COUNCIL MEMBER ANDREA CARDENAS, COUNCIL MEMBER MARIA V. KACHADOORIAN, CITY MANAGER Notice is Hereby Given that The Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the City of Chula Vista City Council will be held in-person and Zoom. The meeting will begin at 6:00 p.m. (The time is approximate and order of items are subject to change.) IN-PERSON LOCATION INFORMATION Southwestern College Learning Resource Center Building 64, Room 238 North and South 900 Otay Lakes Road Chula Vista, CA 91910 ZOOM VIDEO CONFERENCING INFORMATION Zoom Meeting Link: https://swccd-edu.zoom.us/j/81499219243 Meeting ID: 814 9921 9243 Members of the public may participate via Zoom videoconferencing using the link above or by calling in to the meeting at US: +1 669 900 6833 or +1 253 215 8782 or +1 346 248 7799 or +1 301 715 8592 or +1 312 626 6799 or +1 929 205 6099; Meeting ID: 814 9921 9243 Members of the public wishing to comment on specific board items or during the public forum may do so, during the live board meeting. Public comment provides the public with an opportunity to address the Board on any matter within jurisdiction of the Board. In compliance with the Brown Act, except in limited circumstances, the Board cannot take action on matters not listed on the agenda. All comments will be limited to three minutes. Speakers will not be able to cede three minutes to other speakers. An oral presentation to the Board does not constitute an open discussion on the presentation topic unless that topic is on the posted agenda. Pursuant to the Brown Act (Government Code Section 54954.2(a)): No action or discussion shall be undertaken on any item not appearing on the posted agenda, except that members of a legislative body or its staff may briefly respond to statements made or questions posed by persons exercising their public testimony rights under Section 54954.3. Page 3 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Any individuals with disabilities requesting reasonable accommodation or modification of the meeting procedure so as to be able to watch the live feed or listen telephonically to the Board meeting and address the Board may contact mlomahan@swccd.edu at least 48 hours in advance. Please be advised that the meeting will be video and audio recorded. 1. CALL TO ORDER Subject :1.1 Call to Order 6:00 p.m., Southwestern College, Building 64-238 North & South Meeting :Jan 22, 2024 - Special Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the Chula Vista City Council Category :1. CALL TO ORDER Type :Procedural Public Content Attendance at this Special Joint Meeting (Board members arriving after meeting commences will be noted as present at point in this suggested order of business at which they arrive). Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android:https://swccd-edu.zoom.us/j/81499219243 Or Telephone: +1 669 900 6833 (US Toll) Meeting ID: 814 9921 9243 IN-PERSON LOCATION INFORMATION Southwestern College Learning Resource Center Building 64, Room 238 North & South 900 Otay Lakes Road Chula Vista, CA 91910 2. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE Subject :2.1 Pledge of Allegiance Meeting :Jan 22, 2024 - Special Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the Chula Vista City Council Category :2. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE Type :Procedural 3. LAND ACKNOWLEDGMENT Subject :3.1 Land Acknowledgment Meeting :Jan 22, 2024 - Special Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the Chula Vista City Council Category :3. LAND ACKNOWLEDGMENT Type :Procedural Page 4 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Public Content Land Acknowledgment We acknowledge the land upon which we sit and occupy today as the current, traditional, and ancestral home of the Kumeyaay Nation. Before they were colonized and genocide occurred, Kumeyaay territory was vast and included Baja California to the South, Palomar Mountain to the North, and the Salton Sea to the East. And in fact, included Southwestern College locations of Chula Vista, San Ysidro, National City and Otay Mesa. Without them, we would not have access to this gathering or any of the services and benefits our district provides. We take this opportunity to recognize the more than 500 years of demonstrated resilience and resistance in the face of violent actions taken by colonizers in efforts to separate them from their land, culture, and one another. We acknowledge that despite this history, the Kumeyaay Nation continue to be an active, thriving people who contribute to the health and benefit of our region. Let us not only remember but acknowledge, as a conscientious political act, that the land we are on is occupied Kumeyaay territory. 4. ORAL COMMUNICATION Subject :4.1 Oral Communication Meeting :Jan 22, 2024 - Special Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the Chula Vista City Council Category :4. ORAL COMMUNICATION Type :Information Public Content Members of the public wishing to comment on specific board items or during the public forum may do so, during the live board meeting. Public comment provides the public with an opportunity to address the Board on any matter within jurisdiction of the Board. In compliance with the Brown Act, except in limited circumstances, the Board cannot take action on matters not listed on the agenda. All comments will be limited to three minutes. Speakers will not be able to cede their three minutes to other speakers. Pursuant to the Brown Act (Government Code Section 54954.3) members of the public shall be afforded the opportunity to directly address the Governing Board concerning any agenda item that has been described in the notice for the meeting. An oral presentation to the Board does notconstitute an open discussion on the presentation topic unless that topic is on the posted agenda. Pursuant to the Brown Act (Government Code Section 54954.2(a)): No action or discussion shall be undertaken on any item not appearing on the posted agenda, except that members of a legislative body or its staff maybrieflyrespond to statements made or questions posed by persons exercising their public testimony rights under Section 54954.3. 5. BOARD WORKSHOP Subject :5.1 University Now Initiative Update (Encarnacion) Meeting :Jan 22, 2024 - Special Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the Chula Vista City Council Category :5. BOARD WORKSHOP Type :Action, Presentation Recommended Action :Accept the report and provide feedback for the University Initiative Now committee's consideration. Page 5 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Public Content Presenters: Zaneta Salde Encarnacion, MPA, Chief of Staff Alicia Jurek, PhD, San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center Miranda Evans, MPA, Economic Development Manager On May 23, 2023 the Chula Vista City Council approved an agreement with Southwestern Community College District to conduct an academic program planning study to support University recruitment and expansion efforts. The first phase of research consisted of an academic program and workforce needs assessment study. Staff will present on the research findings. File Attachments Planning a Thriving Ecosystem of Higher Education in South County 011824.pdf (14,110 KB) 1.22.24 Joint Workshop.pdf (10,236 KB) Motion & Voting Accept the report and provide feedback for the University Initiative Now committee's consideration. Motion by Corina Soto, second by Roberto Alcantar. Final Resolution: Motion Carries Aye: Roberto Alcantar, Don Dumas, Kris Galicia Brown, Robert Moreno, Corina Soto Not Present at Vote: Jose M Perez 6. ADJOURNMENT Subject :6.1 Adjournment Meeting :Jan 22, 2024 - Special Joint Meeting of the Southwestern Community College District Governing Board and the Chula Vista City Council Category :6. ADJOURNMENT Type :Procedural Public Content Page 6 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Planning a Thriving Ecosystem of Higher Education in South County A Workforce & Education Needs Assessment San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center Southwestern College City of Chula Vista December 2023 Image source: Chestnut Properties Page 7 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Executive Summary -_The Need -_Our Findings -_Our Recommendations Background -_Chula Vista -_Current Study Workforce Needs Assessment -_The Current Workforce: 2023 -_-_Labor Market Information -__-Business Hiring Needs & Challenges -__-Worker Perspectives -_Planning for the Future --__Labor Market Projections -__-Regional Business Outlook -__-Priority Occupations 01 01 01 02 03 03 04 05 05 05 07 09 12 12 13 17 Table ofContents Page 8 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Education Needs Assessment --Resident Challenges & Opportunities ----Educational Challenges ----Educational Opportunities ----Program Interests & Modality Preferences --Business Perspectives on Training & Education ----Training Providers ----Advice -Priority Programs ---Met & Unmet Need Concluding Thoughts --Content --Structure Appendix I: Research Methodology --Resident Survey --Business Survey --Business Focus Groups --Priority Occupations Appendix II: Preliminary Priority Occupations Appendix III: Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations Appendix IV: Priority Academic Programs 21 21 22 23 24 26 26 27 27 28 49 50 51 52 52 53 54 54 57 59 62 Table ofContents continued Page 9 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Executive Summary The Need Chula Vista is the largest city in California without a university offering bachelor’s degree programs. Local leaders have been trying to bring bachelor’s degree programs to the 585,000 people living in South County since at least 1986. In 2023, the City of Chula Vista broke ground on a project that will change that. This research project identifies local workforce needs and demand for bachelor’s degree programs. We draw on focus groups with business leaders across the region, a survey of employers in San Diego County, Orange County, and Baja California, Mexico, a representative-sample survey of 1,000 San Diego County residents, data from the US Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics, and data about programs from regional universities. Our analysis is designed to help the University Now Initiative (UNI) fill local gaps in higher education, differentiate themselves from other regional higher education offerings, and tailor their programs to residents’ needs. Our Findings South County residents want and need a bachelor’s program. 40% of South County adults were interested in enrolling in a bachelor’s degree program in the next two years, compared to just 27% in the rest of the county. Residents expressed the desire for programs in business, healthcare, technology, and the arts, and were as likely to be motivated by self-improvement as by income growth. In focus groups, business leaders emphasized the skills they need from workers, including technical skills but also social awareness, communication, independence, creativity, critical thinking, and problem-solving. In the short-term, employers were focused on growing their businesses and improving processes. For the long-term, they were concerned about the impacts of AI and other emerging technologies, like virtual reality and robotics. To prepare them for the future of work, students need the skills to use these emerging technologies and work effectively and ethically in a workplace alongside automated agents. To determine the most valuable academic programs to recruit to the region, we first identified 147 priority occupations— occupations that currently pay self- sufficient entry-level wages, don’t require graduate degrees or more than four years of work experience, and are projected to hire at least 50 new workers each year. We adjusted hiring expectations based on eight trends, including AI and automation, climate change, nearshoring, and changes in California’s regulatory environment. This process helped us focus on the jobs of the future. Chula Vista is the only city inCalifornia with a populationover 200k that does not havea public university offeringbachelor’s degrees. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 01 Page 10 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Our Recommendations We recommend that the UNI committee consider prioritizing programs that: lead to high-quality, high-demand jobs that meet the economic needs of the future (see Appendix III: Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations); meet needs that are unmet by existing public universities in the region (see Table 2), and build on Southwestern College’s strengths and existing programs where possible by building transfer pathways to the newly created university clear to students and easy to access. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 02 Page 11 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Background San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 03 United States Census Bureau. (n.d.). DP05: ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates. Retrieved from https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDP5Y2021.DP05?q=population&g=160XX00US0613392. Canedo Rivas, T., Floca, M., Gin, A., Medina Sanchez, R., Orraca Romano, P. P., & Shirk, D. A. (2022). The CaliBaja Regional Economy: Production, Employment, Trade & Investment. University of San Diego Knauss School of Business. Retrived from https://sdchamber.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2022-TheCaliBajaRegionalEconomy-%C6%92.pdf San Ysidro Land Port of Entry. (2023). U.S. General Services Administration. Retrieved from https://www.gsa.gov/about- us/regions/region-9-pacific-rim/land-ports-of-entry/san-ysidro-land-port-of-entry Mendoza, A. (2023, July 6). Second Otay Mesa border crossing may open later than planned. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-07-06/second-otay-mesa-border-crossing-with-20-minute-average-wait- may-open-later-than-planned Sosa, A. (2023, Oct. 14). New law will allow some Mexican residents to pay in-state tuition at California community colleges. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-10-14/california-is-now-the-last-border-state-to- create-an-in-state-tuition-program-for-nearby-mexican-citizens City News Service. (2023, June 16). South Bay leaders to renew efforts to bring 4-year university to Chula Vista. NBC San Diego. Retrieved from https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/south-bay-leaders-to-renew-efforts-to-bring-4-year-university-to- chula-vista/3247399/ 6 5 4 3 2 1 Chula Vista Located in south San Diego County, Chula Vista is home to a thriving population of 276,000 residents who enjoy the city's unique blend of coastal landscapes, picturesque canyons, rolling hills, and majestic mountains. Chula Vista is San Diego County’s second largest city, comprising approximately 8% of the county’s population, and plays a vital role in the cross-border dynamics of the region. Over 40,000 people live in Tijuana, Mexico, and commute daily to work or study in San Diego County. Approximately 70,000 northbound vehicles and 20,000 northbound pedestrians cross the San Ysidro Land Port of Entry each day. At the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, approximately 17,000 passenger vehicles and commercial trucks, and 7,000 pedestrians cross the border daily. With a new border crossing in the region will likely grow more interconnected. Although it boasts a robust educational system and is renowned for its safety and high quality of life, Chula Vista is the largest city in California without a bachelor’s granting institution. On June 16, 2023, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, Assemblymember David Alvarez, and Southwestern College Board President Roberto Alcantar signed an agreement to signal their commitment to bringing at least one university to Chula Vista. The University Now Initiative (UNI) Committee was formed to bring together regional leaders in government, education, and economic and workforce development to guide the university planning efforts. This committee envisioned the creation of a vibrant binational ecosystem of innovation and higher education opportunities and collaboration to empower our region’s distinctive potential. This study will support them in realizing that vision. 6 5 4 3 2 1 and with the passage of AB-91 allowing some Mexican residents to pay in-state tuition at California community colleges, east Otay Mesa slated to open in 2026, Page 12 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 04 Current Study The current study was designed to be the first phase of the academic planning study for the approved university intended for Chula Vista. There were two primary goals for this study: We achieved these goals by using labor market information; data about existing education demand and offerings in regional colleges and universities; focus groups of business leaders in South County; a survey of business leaders in San Diego County, Orange County, and Baja California, Mexico; and a representative sample survey of San Diego County residents. For detailed information about the research methodology, see Appendix I: Research Methodology. To conduct a workforce needs assessment identifying good jobs that will be obtainable for recent graduates with a bachelor’s degree To conduct an education needs assessment identifying high-demand academic programs that will prepare students for those priority jobs 1 2 Chula Vista Page 13 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 05 To understand regional workforce needs, we studied the short-, mid-, and long-term workforce needs in the region. We learned about which programs and skills employers think are currently lacking in the region and, when looked at together with research questions addressing the long- term future, which evergreen skills educators can emphasize to ensure that graduates can succeed and bolster their programs’ reputations. WorkforceNeedsAssessment Data on number of jobs, entry-level requirements, and income sourced from Lightcast. (2022). Occupation table. Retrieved from https://analyst.lightcast.io/analyst/?t=4WmQn#h=ttdr2&page=occupation_table&vertical=edo&nation=us 7 The Current Workforce: 2023 The current labor market and hiring needs and challenges of regional businesses are our best view into the short- and medium-term hiring needs of employers. Understanding these needs will support us in scaffolding a plan that addresses immediate local needs. First, we used labor market information to reveal the financial premium workers with associate and bachelor’s degrees command in the local job market. Then, we used focus groups and a survey of local business leaders to identify their current hiring needs and challenges. We also surveyed San Diego County residents to understand the roles they play in the labor force and their experiences seeking jobs. Labor Market Information In 2023, there were 2.24 million jobs in San Diego County. These jobs had different entry-level requirements, such as level of education and work experience, and paid various wages. Approximately 21% of jobs had no formal educational requirement, 44% required between a high school diploma and a certification (but no college degree), 2% required an associate degree, 28% required a bachelor’s degree, and 5% required a graduate degree. The median income for bachelor’s degree earners in the county was $17.58 more than for those without a college degree. 7 Page 14 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 06 Zip codes used to define the area included 91902, 91908, 91909, 91910, 91911, 91912, 91913, 91914, 91915, 91921, 91932, 91950, 91977, 91978, 92118, 92154, 92155, 92173. 8 Figure 1: Hourly Wages by Typical Entry-Level Education Of the 2.24 million jobs in the county, 244,574 were located in the South Bay region. Around 20% of the jobs in the region typically required people to have a bachelor’s degree or higher at entry. In this area, as in the rest of the county, bachelor’s degree holders earned close 8 to $18 more than those without a college degree. As workers move up the ranks in their jobs (from entry level wages to higher wages for their profession), bachelor’s degrees command an increasingly higher premium (see Figure 1). Page 15 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Business Hiring Needs& Challenges San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 07 Hiring Needs Several employers among our focus group participants were looking to hire people with very specialized skills (for example, one participant said, “The type of cybersecurity compliance we’re trying to enter in the field is extremely specialized”), combinations of skills (e.g., “somebody that has both [teaching skills] and the technology would be the hardest”), or experience (e.g., “…most of our positions at even the entry-level require some level of experience in [our particular domain of public service]…very few people possess that experience unless they’re coming from another organization, like for example, [a private charity in the same domain]. And so, we are having challenges filling our positions.” Skills A few people in the focus groups mentioned that new graduates or young workers tend to lack soft skills, which employers value. For example, Employers indicated that work experience helped signal that a candidate has soft skills and that experience didn’t have to be in their specific field but “something where we can see that they can work in a regular place of business.” Another participant reported, “Especially with COVID them being away for two years, we’re losing kind of like the emotional intelligence component. So, teaching people soft skills or whatever you want to call it, that’s super important…if you don’t have the emotional intelligence or people skills, you’re not going to last in our office.” “Sometimes folks that have not gone to a four-year school and instead have been out waiting tables and interacting with folks are a little bit sharper on some of like the soft skills of understanding, being empathetic to other people, and understanding how to problem solve on the fly.” The survey of businesses reinforced the importance of soft skills to employers, with 65% of respondents reporting that soft skills, such as communication, teamwork, etc., were either very or extremely important for job candidates seeking full- time positions in core business roles (see Figure 2, where skills and qualifications are ranked in descending order by which the greatest percentage of businesses ranked as either “very important” or “extremely important”). Interestingly, candidates having a bachelor’s degree was rated as being very or extremely important by more businesses than having technical training/expertise specific to the position the candidate is applying for. Page 16 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 08 Figure 2: Importance of Job Skills/Qualifications for Those Doing Core Work of the Organization listening” and “speaking” for communication, etc.). All these skills were rated as very or extremely important by at least half of the 212 businesses surveyed, with active learning, critical thinking, and reading comprehension rated highly by close to three-quarters of businesses. Employers also discussed common expectations in the talent pool that they struggled to meet: In addition to people skills and problem- solving, participants mentioned specific soft skills, including fitting in with the culture, professional networking, and communication with coworkers. Along with soft skills, participants cited other specific skills that they were looking for, including project management, teaching, public speaking, written communication, self-directed learning, interviewing skills, in/entrepreneurial skills, safety, ethics, creativity, adaptability, problem-solving, communication and networking, engineering, and software skills. Related skills were often rated highly on the survey as well. In Figure 3, we show the five work skills rated either very or extremely important by the largest percentage of businesses in the survey, as well as skills related to those brought up in the qualitative data (for example, “instructing” for teaching skills, “active “A lot of people that the first question they ask is, is this remote or in office?...we tend to not hire fully remote people, but we see that that’s where the talent pool is.” “And people want to get paid a lot and we’re in education and we can’t pay them that much.” Page 17 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 09 Figure 3: Importance of Work Skills for Those Doing Core Work of the Organization The number of jobs worked by respondents differed by race and gender but not by region of the county (i.e., South County compared to the rest of the county). Multiracial, Hispanic, and Black respondents reported working two jobs more frequently than Asian respondents, who were most likely to report working one job. Men reported working both one and two jobs more frequently than women. Most respondents were working full-time (40 hours per week) in their primary job, and this did not differ by region, race, or gender. Worker Perspectives p ≤0.05. This and all other statistical tests discussed are chi-square tests of independence.9 Work Landscape Among respondents to our survey, 56% were working for pay at the time of the survey. Of those not working, approximately one-third had been actively looking for work in the previous month. Women were significantly less likely to be working than men, though there was no difference by gender in reported job-seeking behaviors. While most racial groups were more likely to be working than not, White respondents were significantly less likely to be working. Hispanic respondents who were not currently working were significantly more likely to be seeking work than others. 9 Page 18 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 10 Finally, we asked respondents who were working for pay how likely they were to search for a new job in the next year. Close to half of workers (46%) said they were somewhat or extremely likely to seek a new job in the next 12 months (see Figure 4). Turnover intentions were equally likely across region, gender, and race. This was somewhat lower than national turnover intention estimates, which ranged from 51% to 56% in 2023.10 11 Mosser, M. (2023, July 27). Half of Your Employees Are Looking to Leave. Gallup. Retrieved from https://www.gallup.com/workplace/506819/half-employees-looking-leave.aspx Gillespie, L. (2023, April 3). Survey: 56% of workers plan to look for a job in the next 12 months. Bankrate. Retrieved October 24, 2023, from https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/job-seekers-survey/ 10 11 Figure 4: Likelihood of Seeking a New Job in Next 12 Months (Among Those Working for Pay) We asked respondents who worked for pay about the match between their skills/training and their jobs. Most workers (69%) reported that their job was a good match for their skills/training, a little over one-quarter (26%) reported their job didn’t take advantage of their skills/training, and 5% reported that their job was a little beyond their skills/training. There were no differences in reported skills (mis)match by region of the county, gender, or race. Page 19 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 11 Survey participants were asked to select all challenges that applied to them.12 There were no significant differences by region, race, or gender in reported experiences of most of these job challenges, with two exceptions: Asian respondents were significantly more likely, and White respondents significantly less likely, to report that the job they wanted was very competitive. Women were significantly more likely than men to report that they lacked adequate child- or eldercare. (These bars are labeled with “*” in Figure 5). Other challenges respondents listed included disability or illness (5%), age or retirement (2%), having a criminal record (1%), and being homeless, a lack of private or public transportation, having an obligation to the military that prevents looking for other work, having an expired professional credential, pursuing writing, and looking for part-time work (less than 1% each). Job Challenges When asked how satisfied they were about their ability to get a job in the occupation or line of work they want, approximately one- third of San Diego County residents reported they were somewhat or very dissatisfied. There were no significant differences in satisfaction by region, gender, or race. Figure 5 shows the job challenges reported by individuals who said they were somewhat or very dissatisfied with their ability to get their desired job. Close to 30% each reported that there were not enough jobs available, the job they wanted was very competitive, and/or that the available jobs haven’t paid enough. About 21% reported that they did not have the required work experience and 17% reported they did not have the required training, skills, education, or certification. 12 Figure 5: Challenges to Getting Desired Job (Of Those Dissatisfied with Ability to Get Job) Page 20 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 12 Planning For The Future Trends are changing our economy, job market, and training needs. To help the UNI Committee build programs that are flexible and resilient to changes in the economy and design curricula that support anticipated business needs, we 1) projected regional labor market information to 2023, 2) asked business leaders about the trends and challenges they expect in the short- and long-term and 3) generated a list of priority occupations. Regardless of whether our participants successfully predict the future, their answers to questions about the future of their business and industry will help us understand the perspectives and behavior of employers as they consider their long- term outlook. Labor Market Projections Over the next 10 years, the San Diego County economy is expected to grow by nearly 264,000 jobs. Over one-tenth of the job growth (30,286 jobs) is projected to be in priority jobs: those that pay a self- sustaining wage, are accessible for recent graduates, and have a sufficient number of projected openings (for a detailed discussion of priority occupations, see Preliminary Priority Occupations, below). The South County economy is expected to grow by about 25,500 jobs. Most (approximately 70%) of the priority occupations in the county are projected to require a bachelor’s degree at entry. Figure 6 compares the number of priority jobs available in South County and the rest of San Diego County by typical entry level education for 2023 and 2033. Page 21 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 13 Figure 6: Priority Jobs by Typical Entry-Level Education Regional Business Outlook We asked local business leaders about their expectations in the short-term and long- term future. Regardless of whether our participants successfully predict the future, their answers to questions about the future of their business and industry will help us understand the perspectives and behavior of employers as they consider their long- term outlook. Five Years from Now Close to three-quarters of the business survey participants (see Figure 7) and nearly all of our focus group participants expected their businesses to grow over the next five years. They were optimistic about new markets and process improvements in the short-term future, and few expected large-scale disruptions. Survey participants were evenly split when asked whether they expected their hiring practices and/or goals to change in the next five years, with 51% responding yes and 49% responding no. Figure 7: Expected Change in Business Size Over Next Five Years Page 22 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 14 In the near term, participants talked about the growth they expect in their businesses. Along with that growth, they anticipated raising their hiring standards and improving their processes. For example, “… increas[ing their] efforts to promote diverse and inclusive recruitment practices,” becoming “…more in-depth and analytical,” “…hir[ing] more experience,” or “…requiring more bespoke training and less on the job training.” Process improvements included, for example, “…cross-functional collaboration, continuous feedback, and iterative improvements in hiring processes,” “…a stronger focus on remote work capabilities and fostering a diverse and inclusive workplace to attract top talent globally,” and “…creat[ing] a positive, professional, inclusive and transparent recruitment process that attracts high- quality candidates and enhances our employer brand.” Many mentioned additional efficiencies from technology in the near-term future, including automation and AI, but not major disruptions. In the five-year future, participants expect technology advancements will improve staff recruiting tools, manufacturing automation, education and training, marketing, and cybersecurity, and will enable remote and distributed teams. Fifty Years from Now Participants’ 50-year visions showed much more variety. Respondents imagined everything from space tourism to gene- editing nanobots. In this section, we review patterns in participants’ visions and their concerns about the future: what technology will change their industries? What new skills will be needed in their industry in 50 years? What jobs will be more and less relevant in the future? Technology In focus groups and in the survey, Artificial Intelligence (AI) was the most popular topic of the 50-year discussion. Participants most often mentioned AI as a generally transformational force, but participants offered many specific examples of impacts they expected, including skills and jobs that will benefit from AI and those that will be in less demand. They expect increasing demand for some skills and jobs: Engineering, architects, and designers of AI Analysts and programmers “Digital organizers” People who can interpret and apply the outputs of AI Regulators, compliance officers, and auditors of AI systems and their outputs Data privacy and security Creative workers They expect some jobs will change substantially: Therapy, education, customer service, and administration facilitated by AI Content creators will rely on AI Engineering may experience some deskilling as AI gets involved And they expect some jobs will be replaced entirely. Participants expected replacement in: Customer support and operations roles Cashiers and customer service jobs Administrative positions Page 23 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 15 In 50 years, they predicted the need for skills in data analysis, GIS, cryptography, operating automated systems, building AI tools, building virtual reality environments, organizing data, working with automated assistants, and quality control. Participants discussed problem-solving, communication and networking, engineering, and software skills as part of both their current and future hiring needs. There was a lot of difference in opinion among participants about teaching and education: “I don’t see teachers in person being of much use.” “I don't think [Chat GPT] can replace the physical teacher teaching and lecturing, but I think it can help with instructional design, which is building courses.” “What we would consider mundane tasks, or repetitive tasks will for sure. . . be replaced with technology. And I think we'll see more cerebral think tanks for humans. And that's why education is going to become even more important.” A few people discussed AI ethics, auditing, and transparency. New jobs mentioned in this category included AI Ethics Officers, AI regulators, AI auditors, and AI compliance officers. One respondent, for example, predicted that 50 years in the future, there will be: “Strong ethical guidelines and regulations govern the development, deployment, and usage of AI. There are international standards ensuring AI respects privacy, avoids discrimination, and operates transparently.” Page 24 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 16 Some participants mentioned where they thought they would see little change due to AI. Those areas include: Education, especially early childhood and musical education Hands-on services (like cooking and cleaning) Construction Participants predicted that in 50 years, other technologies will impact the economy as well. Other technologies mentioned include robotics, virtual and augmented reality, quality control and monitoring technology, quantum computing, cryptography, novel materials and construction techniques, new manufacturing technologies, improved software, medical advancements (including nanoscale technologies, neural enhancements, 3D printed tissue), and climate change reversal. Advancements in robotics were particularly salient for our participants. They expected higher demand for robotics engineers and programmers as robotics gets further integrated into manufacturing, sanitary services, car repair, restaurants and bars, retail, shipping and delivery. Participants frequently described virtual and augmented reality as changing the job market. They anticipated demand for developers that can create virtual environments, including for shopping, assessments, job fairs, therapy, historical preservation, legal consultations, training, and education, and more demand for candidates who are comfortable working in virtual environments. Social Change Some people anticipated cultural or legal changes. Cultural changes mentioned mentioned included an aging population, Generation Z entering the workforce, shorter attention spans, a greater need for bilingual workers, and (non-specific) changes in consumer behavior. Additionally, a few participants anticipated more funding, more competition, and more social acceptance for the kind of work they do. The changes that participants anticipate in government include: “Technology will have automated many of the tedious aspects of economic development (e.g. site selection, infrastructure planning) and empowered the more complicated conversations surrounding workforce, education and land use.” “Reduction in paperwork, insurance reimbursement equivalent to professional fee advertised, enough providers to meet the demand for services.” “It will likely be more regulated. . . My field is new, and cutting edge and so there is a lot of opportunity for creativity and growth. As it becomes more established it will likely be less flexible.” “I anticipate a greater use of and reliance on social programs, this would mean more case managers, social workers, care givers, home health aides, etc.” “Early intervention services for young children will be available for all families at no cost.” Page 25 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 17 Participants predicted changes in transportation, logistics, architecture, infrastructure, and food production in response to environmental concerns. One respondent speculated that companies will take more responsibility for their environmental impact, writing: Priority Occupations To help guide bachelor’s program development, we identified priority occupations that are in high demand in the county and represent substantial opportunity for graduates in the future. Identifying priority occupations proceeded in two stages: first identifying preliminary priority occupations based on current economic data, and then identifying future trends and adjusting the list of preliminary priority occupations to reflect the future trends. Preliminary Priority Occupations One of the primary goals of the workforce needs analysis was to describe the “good” jobs available to recent college graduates who have earned a bachelor’s degree. We considered jobs to be good if they pay a livable wage, are obtainable by recent graduates, and have enough job openings that graduates can reasonably expect to have access to them. The self-sufficiency standard enumerates the income people need to have to meet their needs without further assistance. University of Washington Center for Women’s Welfare. (2020). Overview. Self Sufficiency Standard. Retrieved September 5, 2023, from https://selfsufficiencystandard.org/the-standard/overview/ At PIC, we believe people should make a self-sufficient wage in a 40-hour work week. We calculated the self-sufficient wage for summer 2023 by adjusting the 2021 self-sufficiency wage for a 40-hour work week and using the local Current Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is important to note that we consider this a wage floor for “good jobs” and that higher wages are necessary to sustain families. 10th percentile wages. 13 14 We created a preliminary list of priority occupations based on four criteria. To be considered a priority occupation, jobs must: Have 50 or more average openings per year Require less than five years of work experience at entry Require a bachelor’s degree or less at entry Pay a self-sustaining wage at entry Jobs must have 50 or more average openings per year to ensure that there will be enough jobs available for graduating students. They must require less than five years of work experience and a bachelor’s degree or less at entry so that graduating students can meet the entry-level requirements. Finally, they must pay a self- sustaining wage of $21.98 at entry to ensure that people taking these jobs can make ends meet without additional assistance. Based on these criteria, we identified a preliminary list of 87 priority occupations in San Diego County (see Appendix II: Preliminary Priority Occupations). Few (0% in the South Bay region and 8% in San Diego County) of the priority jobs required an associate degree at entry while the majority (72% in South Bay, 73% in the entire county) required a bachelor’s degree. 13 14 “HR will play a role in sustainability efforts, addressing climate change, and promoting eco-conscious practices.” Page 26 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 18 We do not make predictions about jobs that do not yet exist, but completely new occupations only account for approximately 0.56% of new jobs in the United States each year. Lin, J. (2011). Technological adaptation, cities, and new work. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 554–574. 15 Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations Our preliminary priority occupations list identified “good” jobs in 2023’s economy, but how will legal, social, and technological changes impact the job market in 2033? We considered the impacts of changes to California employment law, an aging population, climate change, improvements in energy efficiency, the movement away from fossil fuel usage, nearshoring, and automation on currently existing jobs in order to identify a future-adjusted priority occupation list (for more information, see Appendix I: Research Methodology). 15 We removed six occupations from our preliminary list (for example, we expect the credit analysis occupation to experience substantial deskilling due to automation, which is likely to reduce job quality, including pay). We added 67 occupations (many of them in the healthcare industry, due to the passage of California SB-525 that increases the minimum wage of healthcare workers), for a final list of 147 priority occupations (see Appendix III: Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations). From this point forward, when we refer to “priority occupations,” we are referring to this future-adjusted list. Page 27 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting AI Impacton ExistingProfessions We can’t tell how AI will impact one job, let alone a multi-disciplinary, interconnected industry. But we aren’t completely ignorant about it, either. We can imagine several possible futures for an industry and consider how the decisions of other people— including those in the industries, technologists, and educators— can move us closer toward each of those futures. In this case study, we will review some possible futures of one multidisciplinary industry: film and television production. Software driven by machine learning has been a part of the film and television industry for a long time. Recommendation algorithms drive advertising and decide what content Netflix puts on your home page, making a big impact on the demand side of the equation. Recently, AI tools are being incorporated more broadly into the creation side of the equation. Even “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once,” which won seven Academy Awards, including Best Picture, used AI-driven tools for some minor special effects. It’s not hard to imagine a near-future where AI tools write drafts of scripts, ad copy, and music; create special effects; dub or mimic actors’ voices to change the dialog in films; and much more. Generative AI-machine learning-based models that accept prompts and generate text, images, or video— has been advancing rapidly in 2023. The implementation of these models has already caused a stir in the film and TV production industry. Dozens of articles were published this year with titles like “Generative AI is upending the film industry,” “’Of course it’s disturbing’: Will AI change Hollywood forever?” and “How will the Movies (as we know them) Survive the Next 10 years?” Substantial Replacement In this future, AI takes over a lot of tasks currently done by humans, reducing the number of humans employed in the industry. This could look like AI replacing individual human jobs one at a time (e.g., an automated agent that replaces a writers’ room, an automated agent that edits videos) or replacing tasks, and fewer people are needed to accomplish the tasks that remain. Replacement would have a major, negative impact on employment in film and television production. It could also massively increase the quantity of content coming out of the industry. Many people believe that humans will not be as compelled by content that isn’t guided by workers who understand the human experience, so it seems likely that the jobs that are not replaced will be focused on guiding outputs toward the topics, plots, and characters that humans find most interesting. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 19 How do we predict and prepare for AI’s impact on human labor? Page 28 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Substantial Deskilling In this world, robots don’t take over our jobs— just the most interesting parts. Furniture makers are an example of a profession impacted by deskilling. At one time, skilled craftsmen created furniture. If you wanted a chair or a table, humans designed, measured, cut, assembled, and finished the piece. With the introduction of assembly line manufacturing, humans are still involved in the process, but their involvement requires much less skill. Deskilling in film and television production could occur if generative AI is widely adopted, but it turns out the models need a lot of handholding. So instead of writing a script or editing a video, someone would be carefully writing prompts, editing outputs, stitching them together, and refining the final product. Even if the same number of people are employed, these jobs require fewer or different skills. Very often, this results in formerly well-paying jobs becoming low-wage work. Human + AI Teams Research in human computer interaction suggests that people could work with AI in a similar way that they collaborate with humans. However, in order for this not to constitute replacement, the automated agents would need to be doing something that humans couldn’t or wouldn’t otherwise be doing. Human-AI collaboration may not risk jobs, for example, when robots rescue earthquake survivors or neural networks condense large data sets into a model. By this definition, some Human + AI collaboration is already going on in film, for example when we recruit AI to do special effects tasks that would be prohibitively expensive if done by a human. If we incorporate AI into our workflow in this way, though, it will be very easy to then start using the same software for tasks that would simply be somewhat more expensive for a human to do. That’s where we get into deskilling or replacement. AI-Supported, Human-Led In this future, AI is framed as an assistant to human workers, allowing humans to do their regular jobs, but faster or better than they could do them without. This could constitute deskilling or replacement, but it doesn’t need to. For example, humans assigned to come up with a title for a television episode could use a generative AI to suggest dozens of titles that they can use to seed brainstorming. Some see this as the future of AI in TV and film, writing articles like “How AI will augment human creativity in film production.” Others see similar pitfalls as exist with human-AI teams: if the AI can take over tasks that would normally be done by a human for less money and in less time, it seems unlikely that studios and other people in power would be content limiting AI’s input to assisting expensive human labor. AI Banned In light of the threats of AI to humans (not only in replacing human labor, but also in algorithmic bias, wealth concentration, and the risks of general intelligence, for example) some advocate banning or restricting the development and use of AI systems. This future could include either banning AI tools in general or banning certain AI tools, and the ban could span a country, an industry, or a company. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 20 Page 29 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Education NeedsAssessment To complement the workforce needs assessment, we described the education needs of residents and businesses. We used a resident survey to uncover educational challenges, opportunities, and interests and asked business leaders about their education and training needs. Resident Challenges & Opportunities In addition to asking residents about the difficulties they had finding a job, we asked about some of the challenges and opportunities they had experienced with higher education. This information will help academic planning that is responsive to local needs. We learned about residents’ satisfaction with their ability to earn a San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 21 bachelor’s degree, some of the challenges that prevented people from being completely satisfied with their ability to do so, how much people believed getting degrees and certifications would help their future job prospects, who is interested in enrolling soon, and potential students’ preferences for course modality. We learned from participants in the business survey and focus groups what training providers they like to hire from, and some participants also had advice for developing new programs. This information, combined with the workforce needs assessment, can be used to start planning for the new academic programs with an eye towards what locals want out of their education. Page 30 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 22 to go to school” and “I have to put my other expenses (e.g., bills, rent/mortgage, children’s college tuition, etc.) above going to school.” Only the opportunity cost measure of not being able to afford time away from work had any significant variation by the tested metrics, with multiracial respondents more likely to report they could not afford to take time away from work to go to school than other groups (this significant difference is indicated with a star in Figure 8). Other reasons that respondents listed in the open-ended responses included illness and disability (3%), age and/or being retired (3%), and discrimination, fear, overall expense, and not qualifying for financial aid (less than 1% each). Educational Challenges We asked San Diego County residents how satisfied they were with their ability to earn a bachelor’s degree if they wanted it. Close to one-third of residents who had not already earned a bachelor’s degree reported they were somewhat or very dissatisfied. Level of satisfaction did not vary significantly by region of the county, race, or gender. When asked what factors have prevented them from getting the degree they want, two-thirds of residents who reported being dissatisfied with their ability to earn a bachelor’s degree said that at least one of the contributing factors was that the cost of tuition was too high (see Figure 8). The other two highly reported factors were “I cannot afford to take time away from work Figure 8: Challenges to Earning a Bachelor's Degree (Among Those Dissatisfied with Their Ability To Do So) Page 31 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 23 elsewhere in the county to report a certification would help their job prospects a great deal. White residents were more likely to report “not at all” and, in this case, multiracial residents were more likely to report that an occupation- specific certification would help their job prospects a great deal than were other racial groups. No differences were observed by gender for either question. Nearly 30% of San Diego County residents overall reported interest in enrolling in a bachelor’s degree program in the next two years and reported interest differed significantly by region of the county and race. Figure 9 shows that South County residents were more likely to report interest in enrolling in a bachelor’s degree program in the near future. There were no reported differences by gender, but White residents were less interested in enrolling when compared to other racial groups. Educational Opportunities When asked how much getting a bachelor’s degree would help their future job prospects (for example, by helping them obtain a new job, get a promotion, increase earning potential, etc.), 44% of county residents without a bachelor’s degree reported it would help either somewhat or a great deal. White residents were significantly more likely to answer “not at all” than other racial groups. The analogous question about occupation- specific certifications produced similar results. Overall, 45% of residents reported it would help their job prospects either somewhat or a great deal to obtain an occupation-specific certification (though it is important to note that when asked about which certification would help, many respondents wrote in some type of degree. For more information, see Program Interests & Modality Preferences). Residents of South County were more likley than residents Figure 9: Percent of Residents Interested in Enrolling in a Bachelor's Degree Program by Region We asked about interest in enrolling in the next two years to give respondents a specific, short-term timeframe to reference. This was meant to capture actual intent of enrolling in the near future and to exclude people who consider a bachelor’s degree a “someday, maybe” goal. 16 16 Page 32 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 24 When asked for the top three reasons they were interested in enrolling in a bachelor’s program, close to 60% each selected “To help me earn more money” and “For self- improvement” (see Figure 10). Approximately 40% each selected “To learn” and “For the future of my family.” Eighteen percent selected “To change the world for the better” and about 15% each selected “It would allow me to help my parents or family financially” and “To prove to others that I can succeed.” Less than 10% each selected “I feel like I am expected to,” “It’s better than the alternatives,” and “Someone I admired or respected encouraged me to go.” Women were significantly more likely to report wanting to enroll for self-improvement and for the future of their families than men, and men were more likely to report wanting to enroll to prove they could succeed. Asian respondents were most likely to report both wanting to enroll to help their parents or family financially and because they felt they were expected to. Figure 10: Potential Students' Top Three Reasons for Wanting to Enroll Options based on the Student Motivation for Attending University (SMAU)- Revised scale. Phinney, J. S., Dennis, J., & Osorio, S. (2006). Reasons to attend college among ethnically diverse college students. Cultural Diversity and Ethnic Minority Psychology, 12(2), 347. 17 17 Program Interests & Modality Preferences We asked people who were dissatisfied with their ability to earn a bachelor’s degree what they would like to study if they had no barriers to access. While 56% said they were unsure, the remainder wrote in fields of study they would be interested in pursuing. The most popular fields included business (such as marketing), technology (such as computer science or information technology), healthcare (such as kinesiology or nursing), and arts (such as photography or music). The section on Educational Opportunities shows that nearly half of county residents said that an occupation-specific certification would help their job prospects. Many of the write-in answers to the follow- up question of what certification would help their job prospects were degree focused (e.g., “psychology degree,” “Masters degree,” “Law Degree”), but other Page 33 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 25 commonly reported certifications included technology-focused certifications (such as for information security), commercial driver’s licenses, teaching certifications, healthcare- focused certifications (e.g., ultrasound technician), and nursing certifications. Finally, we asked residents who reported interest in enrolling in a bachelor’s program in the next two years to select all the ways they would like to take classes. Figure 11 shows 62% of potential students were interested in online, asynchronous courses, with women significantly more Figure 11: Course Modality Preferences of Potential Students likely than men to select this option. The next most popular option was in person, during the day, with no significant differences by region, race, or gender in preferences for this type of class. In- person, evening classes were selected by approximately one-third of potential students and preferred by men. Online, synchronous classes taught either in the evening or during the day were selected by about 21% of potential students each and were less popular among South County residents than among residents elsewhere in the county. From our survey, we learned that almost 30% of all San Diego County residents and 40% of those living in South San Diego County are interested in earning a bachelor’s degree. The most popular programs of interest are business, technology, healthcare, and the arts. The factors holding residents back are largely direct costs and opportunity costs. Those who are interested in a bachelor’s degree are approximately equally interested in both the financial and personal development benefits of the degree. The majority of respondents are interested in online asynchronous classes, especially female respondents. Page 34 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 26 Business Perspectives on Training & Education We learned from participants in the business survey and focus groups what training providers they like to hire from, and some participants also had advice for developing new programs. This information, combined with the workforce needs assessment, can be used to start planning for the new academic programs with a focus on what locals want out of their education. Training Providers We asked focus group participants whether they had training providers they liked to hire from. They said: “We’ve worked in the past with NFAR, so that’s the National Foundation for Autism Research. So folks that are helping people that are on the autism spectrum, they’ve been a great source of talent for us.” “We might want to partner with like an Operation Code or a Code Platoon versus a private for-profit program.” “A lot of great candidates from some of the community colleges: Grossmont, Southwestern, City College, and then San Diego College of Continuing Education.” When asked what kinds of new training providers they would like to see, focus group participants identified programs including culinary schools, social services programs, cybersecurity, and data analysis. Several folks described instead what they were looking for in a training approach. For example, “…cooperative education models. So schools or programs that are doing experiential learning, tied directly with industry.” “If there was more training around just business development, just business structure, I think that would be good.” “…providers that we tend to avoid referring folks to or getting folks from are gonna be folks that are not providing transparent outcomes data.” “If they don’t have a human component to their mission, then they’re probably not in alignment with my core values.” “San Diego County Office of Education, juvenile court, and Community Schools. I feel like when we have an opportunity to give back to some of our most needy students in the county, we love to be able to do that.” “Love to see students from like CSU San Marcos. I think a lot of those students are crushing it out there.” “We work with local nonprofits with, like, for example, Kitchens for Good, to help us get some candidates that are willing to learn.” Page 35 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 27 Advice A few participants gave direct advice about developing new programs. “Engage and get learners some credit for that institution . . . while they're going through high school so that we're really talking about degree completion and not necessarily starting from scratch in this new institution. I think . . . those schools that can do that [will] stand out and provide more value. You know, to people considering all their options.” “I think when you have more representation of Black faculty, tenured faculty, students are more likely to see themselves at that institution, and they're more likely to be retained, more likely to continue to come, be mentored and graduate, be motivated, kind of work through life while they're in college.” “The first thing is a more of a willingness to go beyond just the isolated, everything on main campus, and instead really be partnering in a meaningful way with outside community-based organizations whether that be better and more frequent volunteer opportunities [or] opportunities to get some work experience and get college credit for it.” “I would also always advocate for affordability.” We did this using the CIP 2020 to SOC 2018 Crosswalk, a joint effort by statisticians at the National Center for Education Statistics and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to match academic programs with occupations based on skills and knowledge. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cipcode/resources.aspx?y=55 Universities in Mexico do not use CIP codes, so we matched those programs based on a keyword search of the titles of programs offered at the universities compared to the titles of programs in the CIP 2020 to SOC 2018 Crosswalk file. Colleges and universities assign the CIP code of a program by first selecting the two-digit series that the program fits in (for example, 13 for Education, 14 for Engineering, 27 for Mathematics and Statistics, etc.) and then selecting the six-digit programs within that category based on the descriptions presented by the NCES. National Center for Education Statistics. (2020). Frequently Asked Questions for CIP Website and CIP Wizard 2020 Version 1.0. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cipcode/Files/CIP_FAQ_Document_2020.pdf. The college or university is then free to name the program as they wish (they are not constrained by the CIP names). This means that it may appear from the title that they have a program corresponding to an occupation, but it may not align with that occupation based on the CIP code. The University of California San Diego, for example, offers a Master of Arts in Teaching and Learning: Bilingual Education (ASL – English). The CIP code, however, is 13.0101, for Education, General, not for bilingual education. 18 Priority Programs One of the primary goals of the education needs analysis was to create a list of high- priority academic programs that would prepare students for the regional workforce. We did this by identifying the academic programs that teach skills and knowledge required by professionals in the Priority Occupations. A complete list of priority programs is available in Appendix IV: Priority Academic Programs. Next, we discuss the availability of these programs in the region. 18 International Border 19 19 Page 36 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Table 1: Priority Occupations with Associated Academic Programs at SWC San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 28 United States Census Bureau. (n.d.). DP05: ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates. Retrieved from https://data.census.gov/table? q=population&g=860XX00US91902,91910,91911,91913,91914,91915,91932,91950,91977,91978,92118,92154,92155,92173. The number of students (including dual-enrolled high-school students) who received an end-of-term grade in a for-credit course. Southwestern College. (2023). Enrollment and Course Outcomes Dashboard. Retrieved from https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/southwesterncollege/viz/EnrollmentandCourseOutcomesDashboard/EnrollmentandCourse OutcomesDashboard. California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office Management Information Systems Data Mart. (2013). Program Awards Summary Report. Retrieved from https://datamart.cccco.edu/Outcomes/Program_Awards.aspx. 20 21 22 Met & Unmet Need: South County Currently, there is no bachelor’s-granting institution in South County, a region of approximately 585,000 people (18% of San Diego County’s population). Southwestern College is the only public college in the area, offering a variety of associate degree and certificate programs to close to 24,000 students in the 2022-2023 academic year. Over 3,000 awards were earned that academic year, including 1,005 associate for transfer degrees, 1,038 associate degrees, 1,058 certificates, and one other credit award. Of the 147 priority occupations identified in the workforce needs analysis, 48 have an associated academic program at Southwestern College. There is a mismatch, however, between the level of education offered at Southwestern College and the typical entry-level education at most of those jobs (see Table 1). Twenty-five of the occupations typically require a bachelor’s degree at entry and seven typically require less than an associate degree. This leaves sixteen priority occupations for which an academic program exists in South County that conveys the required skills or knowledge and meets the typical entry-level requirements of the job. 20 21 22 Page 37 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Table 1 Continued: Priority Occupations with Associated Academic Programs at SWC San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 29 San Diego County San Diego County is home to 16 universities – three public; eight private, non-profit; and five private, for-profit institutions. For this project, we focused on public universities (as those that are most accessible) and provided additional information about private universities that were participating in the University Now Initiative in the supplementary data file. The three public universities – California State University San Marcos, San Diego State University, and University of California San Diego – offered a total of 242 bachelor’s degree programs associated with priority occupations. California State University San Marcos offered 59 priority degree programs, SDSU offered 100 priority degree programs, and UCSD offered 83 priority degree programs. Because the degree programs often convey the skills and knowledge necessary for more than one occupation (a degree in computer science, for example, is associated with the SOC codes for computer systems analysts, information security analysts, database architects, computer programmers, software developers, and data scientists), the 242 degree programs provided education associated with 45 priority occupations. Table 2 lists occupations for which the typical entry level education is a bachelor’s degree and there is no associated academic program at public universities in San Diego County. Additionally, it lists the degree programs associated with each that may be a potential area for concentration for the new university. San Diego State University Page 38 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Table 2: Occupations for Which the Typical Entry-Level Education is a Bachelor’s Degree and There are No Bachelor's Degree Programs at San Diego County Public Universities San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 30 * No educational program teaching the knowledge and skills for this occupation was identified by BLS and NCES statisticians. Page 39 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 31 * No educational program teaching the knowledge and skills for this occupation was identified by BLS and NCES statisticians. Page 40 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting For students interested in studying at a public university in Tijuana and later working in the US, six institutions exist. Instituto Politécnico Nacional offers three priority bachelor’s degree programs, Instituto Tecnológico de Tijuana offers 17, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California offers 31, Universidad Pedagógica Nacional en Tijuana offers six, and Universidad Tecnológica de Tijuana offers 11 (El Colegio de la Frontera Norte is a public university but only offers graduate- level education). Thirty-one of the 65 priority occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree at entry had an academic program available at a public university in Tijuana. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 32 Page 41 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 33 * Impacted program Table 3: Table 3: Selected Priority Occupations, Associated Academic Programs, Regional Availability, and Resident Priority Table 3 provides an example of the links between the workforce needs assessment, education needs assessment, and the information presented in the supplementary data file. We present the top 20 priority occupations by projected annual job openings, their associated academic programs, and information about their regional availability at public institutions, impaction status, and prioritization by residents. Page 42 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 34 * Impacted program Page 43 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 35 * Impacted program See above See above Page 44 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 36 * Impacted program Page 45 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 37 * Impacted program See above See above See above See above See above See above See above See above See above See above Page 46 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 38 * Impacted program See above Page 47 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 39 * Impacted program Page 48 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 40 * Impacted program See above Page 49 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 41 * Impacted program See above See above See above See above Page 50 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 42 * Impacted program See above See above Page 51 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 43 * Impacted program See above Page 52 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 44 * Impacted program See above See above See above Page 53 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 45 * Impacted program See above See above Page 54 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 46 * Impacted program See above See above See above See above See above See above See above See above See above See above Page 55 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Pathwaysto FuturePrograms Emerging occupations are difficult to design training programs for. By their nature, they are unfamiliar and uncertain: the skills and content knowledge graduates need change quicker than legacy programs, and faculty with real-life experience with the profession are difficult to find. We will use the field of Data Science – a young, growing profession – as an example of successful development of academic programs alongside an emerging occupation. Today, organizations hire Data Scientists to help them structure, explore, and address difficult and quickly changing business problems using organizational data, and often several, very large data sets. Data Scientists need to be able to understand data types and structures, to clean and manipulate data collected for one purpose to address another, to do sophisticated data analysis, and to interpret the results of their analysis to solve business problems. Before people were hired for the job title “Data Scientist,” these tasks were often done by workers with broader statistical backgrounds. Today, Data Science bachelor’s programs are ubiquitous and very popular among students. They don’t often live in statistics departments – more often, these programs are founded within computer science or engineering, management, or library and information science departments. Data science programs often focus on producing the most accurate predictions of a variable of interest based on a suite of related variables using machine learning techniques, which were first developed in psychiatry, over inferring relationships between variables using traditional statistical methods. They support the aspects of the Data Scientist’s job that are not covered by a traditional statistics education, like data manipulation, understanding the context of disparate data sources, and data storytelling. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 47 How exactly do programs for emerging occupations develop successfully? Page 56 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting The professional practice of Data Science can be looked at from many angles: computer scientists use many of the same programming languages and techniques; management programs train students to identify and address business problems; library and information departments think deeply about the nature, structure, and context of information. A data science department could be built on any of these strong foundations. It is unlikely that a College of Data Science would be created without first starting in another department and building on that expertise before breaking off into its own department. Schools with successful data science programs develop out of a school’s strengths in existing programs. Their strong reputations allow them to attract excellent faculty. Their trust within their larger institution allows them to build flexible programs, in which they can change curricula guided by trends in the growing profession. Their local credibility makes it easier to build external partners for projects, internships, and more, giving students real world experience in the profession as it exists that year. When building new programs for emerging professions, we recommend the UNI Committee think carefully about where to house the new program, selecting a department whose existing programs shares skill sets with the emerging profession and one that has a strong reputation and current faculty. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 48 Page 57 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting ConcludingThoughts San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 49 A bachelor’s granting institution is needed in Southern San Diego County. Government officials have been working to achieve this goal since at least 1986, and data from the current workforce and education needs report supports the necessity of such an institution. More than a quarter of San Diego County’s 2.24 million jobs require a bachelor’s degree at entry. About 70% of today’s priority occupations – those that pay good wages and are accessible to recent graduates – require a bachelor’s degree. Across industries, a bachelor’s degree can help workers command higher wages at their jobs and a liberal arts education typically encompasses many of the soft skills employers say they want in their employees, such as active learning, 23 Bernstein, L. (1986, April 1). South Bay Plans to Lure a University to the Area. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-04-01-me-1560-story.html. 23 critical thinking, and reading comprehension. Residents want degrees and are hopeful about the ability to improve their lives through education. Though there was no difference by region of the county on reported satisfaction with their ability to get the job they want, South County residents were significantly more likely to report that a bachelor’s degree would improve their job prospects. Approximately 40% of adult residents in the southern parts of the county and about 27% elsewhere in the county are interested in enrolling in a bachelor’s degree program in the near future. Page 58 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 50 Content Potential students were particularly interested in studying business, technology, healthcare, and the arts. When planning programs, the academic planning committee could: Emphasize inclusion of programs focused on business, technology, healthcare, and the arts (e.g., adding healthcare careers is in line with the future adjusted priority programs and demand from prospective students) Emphasize applications within popular industries (e.g., integrating technology project content into project management coursework). When designing curricula, consider emphasizing the skill sets that business leaders in our study feel are lacking in entry-level talent: Adaptability Problem-solving Communication skills Public speaking Teaching Interviewing skills Networking Technical skills Engineering Independence Active learning Project management Flexible thinking skills Creativity Critical thinking Active listening Written communication Reading comprehension Social perceptiveness Entrepreneurial skills Software skills San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation. (2023). Advancing San Diego. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegobusiness.org/about-edc/our-initiatives/advancing-san-diego/. These skills offer an opportunity for new programs to differentiate themselves from current education offerings and provide a head start for graduates. Consider also incorporating the insights of Advancing San Diego, which uses the talent pipeline management framework to identify the in- demand skills and competencies employers in important local industries need in their workforce. When considering the short-term future, business leaders were focused on growing their businesses and improving their processes. Imagining their industry in 50 years, business leaders were concerned about the impacts of AI and other emerging technologies, like virtual reality, robotics and more. Ensuring that students have the skills to use these emerging technologies, interpret their outputs, and act ethically in a workplace alongside automated agents will help them prepare for this future. 24 24 Page 59 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 51 They also offer a place for meeting, socializing, and culture building with peers and faculty, and student clubs and organizations are a vital part of the experience of many students. To help prospective students commit to a bachelor’s degree, reduce both direct and opportunity costs. In addition to tuition assistance, support for child and eldercare, income replacement, and flexible schedules can help mitigate the opportunity costs of a bachelor’s degree for students. Online, asynchronous classes allow students to do their coursework around their work schedules so they can earn an income while they are attending school. Structure More than 60% of prospective students prefer online asynchronous classes, and residents cited opportunity costs as a barrier to a degree. However, this doesn’t mean that residents are interested in perfunctory or easy classes: residents interested in bachelor’s degree programs are about equally motivated by self- improvement benefits as financial ones. This also does not negate the need for a physical university. Institutions of higher education offer a central location where students can receive services such as physical and mental health care, academic advising and assistance, library services, legal services, and meal assistance, to name a few. As programs grow, we recommend that the UNI committee consider prioritizing those that: Lead to high- quality, high- demand jobs that meet the economic needs of the future (see Appendix III: Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations) Meet needs that are unmet by existing public universities in the region (see Table 2) Build on Southwestern College’s strengths and existing programs where possible by making transfer pathways from SWC to the newly created university clear to students and easy to access Page 60 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Appendix I: Research Methodology San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 52 Resident Survey We conducted a representative sample survey of 1,000 San Diego County residents from August 2023 to September 2023. The survey was offered online (available on both web and mobile browsers) in English and Spanish to adults (ages 18 and older). Respondents matched the target population on age, sex, and zip code of residence (see Figure 12). Figure 12: Sample & Population Comparison- San Diego County Parker, K., Horowitz, J. M., Morin, R. (2015). Multiracial in America. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/06/11/multiracial-in-america/. People who selected more than one race were counted in every category they selected with the exception of White. The White category only includes people who selected White and no other races. The total number of people exceeds 1,000 because of this inclusive count. 25 26 At PIC, we do not capture race in the same way the US Census Bureau does. The Census Bureau asks two separate questions, one about race (where respondents can select all that apply to five major categories – White, Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, or Pacific Islander – or have the option to write in an answer under “Some other race”) and one about ethnicity (asking whether the respondent is of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin). Approximately two-thirds of Hispanic Americans consider their Latino identity to be part of their racial identity, so we include “Hispanic or Latina/o/x” among the racial identities survey respondents can select from. We also include the option “Middle Eastern or North African,” allow respondents to select as many options as apply to them, and do not prioritize Hispanic ethnicity when analyzing data on race. We believe our method of capturing race is more in line with people’s experiences but has a downside in that our counts are not directly comparable to the US Census population estimates. In Figure 13 we present an inclusive count of the number of people who responded to the survey by race. 25 26 *ACS 5-yr estimates Page 61 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 53 Business Survey To gather information from business professionals, we conducted a web survey from September 2023 to October 2023. Surveys were available in English and Spanish. The San Diego Workforce Partnership invited San Diego County businesses to participate in the survey, Consejo de Desarrollo Económico de Tijuana and Centro Metropolitano de Información Económica y Empresarial invited businesses in Baja California to participate, and PIC researchers reached out directly to Orange County businesses to invite participation. We also engaged a panel survey company to get additional responses. In total, we received 131 responses from San Diego County businesses, 64 from Orange County businesses, and 17 from Baja California businesses. Most of the respondents to the business survey represented private, for-profit businesses (see Figure 14). The industries represented are presented in Figure 15; the most common were retail trade; manufacturing; information; professional, scientific and technical; and construction. Figure 14: Business Type Figure 13: Respondent Race in Representative Sample Survey of San Diego County Residents *Inclusive count Page 62 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 54 Priority Occupations As described in the report, we started with a list of preliminary priority occupations which met our standards for job market demand and job quality in 2023: 1. Have 50 or more average openings per year 2. Require less than five years of work experience at entry 3. Require a bachelor’s degree or less at entry 4. Pay a self-sustaining wage at entry Figure 15: Industry of Responding Businesses Business Focus Groups We collected data about employers’ hiring needs and ideas about the future of their industries. We conducted three focus groups with a total of nine participants. One participant was a sole proprietor who occasionally hires help, one business employed 350 people, two participants worked for organizations with more than a thousand employees, and the rest ranged between four and 28 employees. All these businesses were located in South San Diego County. Focus groups lasted between thirty minutes and one hour and were conducted virtually. Page 63 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 55 Then, we used business concerns from the focus groups and a literature review to identify eight trends that we expect to impact the local job market over the next 10 years. Each trend could have more than one type of impact on occupations. Those trends included: Automation: Increasing integration of machine learning-based tools across industries. Includes recommendation algorithms, image and text generation, K means/clustering, image recognition, and more. Although most of these innovations are implemented in software, this trend includes some additional robotics as well. 1. Harm: Automation could replace a substantial number of jobs in a given occupation (this could be software automation, robotics, or both). a. Smaller harm: Automation could deskill an occupation by replacing human labor with automated labor for some tasks, but not all. b. Benefit: Demand for jobs necessary to build or manage automated tools will likely increase. c. Marketization of previously unpaid domestic work: Increasingly, the economy is monetizing or professionalizing tasks that were previously done by household members without pay. For example, grocery delivery and early childhood care (UTK) both increase the number of people being paid for previously unpaid labor. We expect this trend to continue as adult household members staying at home becomes increasingly unaffordable and gig work continues to be a flexible way to create and supplement income. 2. Small benefit: Although there will increasingly be opportunities to make money doing these previously unpaid jobs, thus far such jobs are low-quality. For example, many provide low wages (e.g., childcare) and many don’t offer stable hours or key benefits like health insurance (e.g., gig work). a. California employment law changes: In response to the marketization of previously unpaid domestic labor and automation, California is continuing to change its employment law. For example, AB 701 and AB 1651 regulate the use of certain technologies in the workplace, and new laws protect trucking and app-based delivery workers from being misclassified. Additional labor may be required to accomplish or document compliance with these laws. 3. Small benefit: Additional regulations will add additional demand for workers to comply and document compliance. We expect these effects will be persistent if the regulations add complexity. This impact is small because we expect that in most cases, it will simply expand the scope of existing workers and will add a small number of additional jobs. a. Aging Population: The increasing average age of the population due to birth rates over time and increased life expectancy will increase the need for services of all kinds except those primarily used by young people and increase demand for healthcare. 4. Benefit: An aging population will likely increase the demand for healthcare.a. Benefit: An aging population will likely increase the demand for most services.b. Energy Efficiency Improvements: Increasing concern about climate change and laws (especially CA state laws) drive the implementation of energy efficiency technologies. 5. Page 64 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 56 4.Energy Efficiency Improvements: Increasing concern about climate change and laws (especially California state laws) drive the implementation of energy efficiency technologies. 5. Benefit: Some jobs’ outlook will be improved by increased demand for the development and installation of energy efficiency technologies. a. Small harm: Jobs involved in the provision of energy may be harmed by the implementation of energy efficiency technologies. This harm is somewhat mitigated by increased demand created by increased electrification and the federal programs designed to support these workers to reskill for related occupations. b. California moving away from fossil fuels: In response to climate goals, resources are being directed toward ambitious expansion in green energy. In 10 years, we expect more jobs in green energy provision such as solar, wind, and hydropower. We expect fossil fuel jobs to continue to contract as California moves towards electric vehicles and residential heating/cooking. 6. Harm: We expect less demand for workers procuring, treating, transporting, or selling fossil fuels. a. Harm: We expect less demand for workers who specialize in repairing and maintaining internal combustion engines across the state. b. Benefit: Jobs related to battery manufacturing, electric vehicle charging, electric vehicle repair, generating clean energy, and electrifying buildings currently heated by fossil fuels. c. Impacts of climate change: global temperatures are likely to continue to rise, increasing fires, floods, wildfires, and food shortages. We expect this to result in increasing demand for recovery after these disasters and enhancement of infrastructure against future disasters. 7. Benefit: We anticipate increased demand for workers in disaster relief or climate resilience. a. Nearshoring: We expect companies to continue to move manufacturing to Mexico to reduce logistical costs and risks from supply chain disruptions. Note that this trend does not predict an increase in goods manufactured, but rather a small number of additional jobs to enact and facilitate manufacturing in Mexico. 8. Benefit: A small number of jobs needed to facilitate nearshoring will experience a long- lasting, positive impact. a. We started with two sets of occupations: those in the preliminary priority occupations list and all other occupations that met our priority occupations criteria except for lacking sufficient average annual job openings or providing a self-sustaining wage. Occupations on the preliminary occupations list were assumed to be included in the future-adjusted priority occupations list unless they were net-negatively impacted by future trends. Other occupations were only included if they were net-benefited by future trends. For example, if an occupation was harmed by a trend listed above as a “small harm” but benefited by a trend listed as a “benefit,” it was included because the benefit outweighs the small harm. If an occupation was harmed and benefited by trends with the same weight (e.g., a “benefit” and a “harm” or a “small benefit” and a “small harm”) it was not included on the future adjusted list. Page 65 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Registered nurses Software developers Project mgmt. specialists Elem. teachers, exc. special ed. Sales managers Licensed practical & vocational nurses Medical & health services managers Police & sheriff's patrol officers Executive secretaries & admin. assistants Paralegals & legal assistants Secondary teachers, exc. special & CTE Compliance officers Computer systems analysts First-line supers. of mechanics, etc. Logisticians Civil engineers Aircraft mechanics & service technicians Biological scientists, all other Electrical & electronic engineering techs. Sales reps., technical & scientific products Operating engineers & other construction ops. Mechanical engineers Engineers, all other Legal secretaries & Admin. assistants Computer hardware engineers Network & computer systems admins. Admin. services managers Cost estimators Computer programmers Airline pilots, copilots, & flight engineers Industrial engineers Software QA analysts & testers Detectives & criminal investigators Data scientists Claims adjusters, examiners, & investigators Electrical Engineers Engineering techs., exc. drafters, all other Social science research assistants Correctional officers & jailers Electronics engineers, exc. computer Facilities managers Dental hygienists Physical therapist assistants Midddle school teachers, exc. special & CTE 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 Appendix II: Preliminary Priority Occupations Average annual openings, 2023-2033 2,364 530 314 207 San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 57 Page 66 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Appendix II: Preliminary Priority Occupations (continued) Chemists Information security analysts Commercial pilots Transportation security screeners Aerospace engineers Occupational health & safety specialists Education admins., all other Environ. scientists & specialists, inc. health Radiologic techs. Special ed. teachers, kinder. & elem. school Operations research analysts Special ed. teachers, secondary school Civil engineering techs. Avionics technicians Technical writers Water & waste. treatment plant & system ops. Probation officers & correctional treat. special. Captains, mates, & pilots of water vessels Respiratory therapists Electronics repairers, commercial & industrial Comp., benefits, & job analysis specialists Surgical technologists Occupational therapy assistants Public safety telecommunicators Microbiologists Sales engineers Electrical power-line installers & repairers Aircraft struc., surfaces, rigging, & sys. assemb. Adult basic ed., sec. ed., & ESL instructors First-line supervisors of police & detectives Industrial engineering techs Insurance underwriters Air traffic controllers Environmental engineers Database administrators Diagnostic medical sonographers Credit analysts Mechanical engineering techs. Explosives workers, ord. experts, & blasters Budget analysts Ctrl. & valve installers & repair., exc. mech.door Aerospace engineering & operations techs. Social scientists & related workers, all other 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 Average annual openings, 2023-2033 190 101 78 53 San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 58 Page 67 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Appendix III: Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 59 The figure on the next page demonstrates the impact of current trends on future occupations. We used business concerns from the focus groups and a literature review to identify trends that we expect to impact the local job market over the next 10 years. These trends are included in the broad categories identified in the visual below: the environment, including disaster relief and climate resilience; technology, including automation; demographics, including the aging of the population; and legal changes, like increasing employment law complexity. Trends may have a combination of positive, negative, or intersecting effects on future occupations. We estimate their impact by classifying expected effects into “harm,” “small harm,” “benefit,” and “small benefit.” For more information on how we estimated impact, refer to the section on Priority Occupations in Appendix I: Research Methodology. In the visual below, this is represented by the color-coded plus and minus signs. For example, we expect technology will have a negative impact on Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators. Legal and demographic trends, however, are expected to have a positive impact on this occupation. The color-coded lines connect the trend category and the occupations likely to be affected by the future trends. In the top center box, for example, we see the tag for the environment, which has five lines connecting it to different occupation groups. From left to right, we see it first connect to the box which includes Civil engineering technologists and technicians, which is expected to be impacted positively by the environment and negatively by technology. The next line connects to a group of occupations including Civil engineers, which is mostly expected to be impacted positively by the environment, followed by the tag connecting to Environmental scientists and specialists and others, where environmental and demographic trends are expected to have a positive impact. Next, we see this box connected to Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators, expected to increase due to environmental trends, Finally, the environment connects to Cost estimators and Insurance underwriters, which we expect to be impacted positively by environmental, legal, and demographic trends. We also identified which occupations from our original list of priority occupations would be unimpacted by the previously mentioned trends, ranging from aerospace engineers and avionics technicians to elementary school teachers and probation officers. For a full list of possible unimpacted occupations, see the list “Preliminary priority occupations that were unaffected by future projections.” Page 68 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Occupational health & safety specialistsParalegals & legal assistantsLabor relations specialistsLegal secretaries & administrative assistants Environmental scientists & specialists, including healthFacilities managersLogisticiansPublic safety telecommunicatorsRegistered nursesRespiratory therapists Project mgmt. specialists; Dental hygienists; Diagnostic medicalsonographers; Radiologic techs. & technicians; Licensed practical &vocational nurses; Occupational therapy assts.; Physical therapist assts.;Microbiologists; Biological scientists, all other; Chemists; Gamblingmanagers, Food scientists & techs.; Radiation therapists; Nuclearmedicine techs.; MRI techs., Medical dosimetrists; First-line supers. ofprotective service wrkrs., all other; Recreational therapists; Exercisephysiologists; Therapists, all other; Clinical laboratory techs. &technicians; cardiovascular techs. & technicians; EMTs; Paramedics;Dietetic techs., Pharmacy techs., Psychiatric techs., Veterinary techs. &technicians; Ophthalmic medical techs.; Medical records specialists;Opticians; Dispensing; Hearing aid specialists; Health techs. &technicians, all other; Health info. techs. & medical registrars; Athletictrainers; Surgical assistants; Healthcare practitioners & technical wrkrs.,all other; Home health & personal care aides; Nursing assts.; Orderlies;Psychiatric aides; Occupational therapy aides; Physical therapist aides;Massage therapists; Dental assts.; Medical assts.; Medical equip.preparers; Pharmacy aides; Veterinary assts. & lab. animal caretakers;Phlebotomists; Healthcare support wrkrs., all other Comp., benefits, & job analysis specialistsEducation admin., all otherMedical & health services managers Compliance officersExecutive secretaries & admin. assistantsLegal secretaries & admin. assistants Claims adjusters, examiners, invest. Computer systems analystsInformation security analystsDatabase administratorsNetwork & computer systems admin.Computer programmersSoftware developersSoftware Q.A. analysts & testersTechnical writersSales engineers (+)Mechanical engineers (+)Social science research assistantsIndustrial engineering techs. & techniciansMechanical eng. techs. & techniciansFinancial examinersTax examiners & collectors, & revenue agentsDatabase architects (+)Actuaries Budget Analysts LEGAL Employment law complexity Civil engineers; Computer hardware eng.; Electrical eng.; First-line Supers. of police & detectives;Police & sheriff's patrol officers; Operating eng. & other construction equip. operators; Explosivesworkers; Ordnance handling experts, & blasters; First-line supers. of mechanics, installers, & repairers(-); Electrical power-line installers & repairers; Water & wastewater treatment plant & systemoperators; Elect. eng., exc. comp.; Environmental eng.; Insurance appraisers, auto damage;Bioengineers & biomedical eng.; Chemical eng.; Agricultural eng.; Electronics eng., exc. computer;Materials eng.; Mining & geological eng., inc. , mining safety eng.; Nuclear eng.; Petroleum eng. (-);Calibration techs. & technicians; Foresters; Atmospheric & space scientists; Materials scientists;Geoscientists, exc. hydrologists & geographers; Geographers; Hydrologic techs.; First-line supers. offirefighting & prevention works.; Forest fire inspectors & prevention specialists; Transit & railroadpolice; Electrical & electronics repairers; Powerhouse, substation, & relay; Millwrights; Nuclear powerreactor operators; Power distributors & dispatchers; Power plant operators; Petroleum pump systemoperators (-); Refinery operators & gaugers; Computer numerically controlled tool programmers Cost estimatorsInsurance underwriters Civil engineering techs. & techniciansData scientists Electrical & electronic eng. tech. & technicians, exc. drafters, all otherElectro-mechanical and mechatronics techs. & technicians (-/+)Industrial engineersOperations research analystsMechanical engineers (-/+) Admin. services managersAdult basic ed., adult secondary ed., & English as a second language instructorsMedical transcriptionistsSales managersSales reps., wholesale & manufacturing, technical & scientific products Surgical transcriptionists ENVIRONMENT Disaster relief and Climate Resilience Energy Efficiency Upgrades Electrification TECHNOLOGY Automation DEMOGRAPHICS Aging Population San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 60 (+/-) (-) (-/+) (+) (+/+) (+) (+/+) (+/+/+) (-/+/+/+) (-/+) (-/+/+) (+) Page 69 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Preliminary priority occupations that were unaffected by future projections: San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 61 Page 70 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Agriculture, general Ag. mech. & equip./machine tech./technician International agriculture Food science Food technology & processing Brewing science AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS, & RELATED SCIENCES Appendix IV: Priority Academic Programs Viticulture & enology Zymology/fermentation science Food science & technology, other Soil microbiology Veterinary administrative services, general Veterinary office mgmt./administration NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION Natural resources/conservation, general Environmental studies Environmental science Environ./nat. resources mgmt. & policy, general Environmental/natural resources law enforcement & protective services Energy & environmental policy Forestry, general Forest sciences & biology Forest mgmt./forest resources mgmt. Urban forestry Forest resources production & mgmt. Wood sci. & wood products/pulp & paper tech./technician Forestry, other Computer & information sciences, general Artificial intelligence Information technology Informatics Computer programming/programmer, general Computer programming, specific applications Computer programming, vendor/product cert. Computer game programming Computer programming, specific platforms Computer programming, other Information science/studies COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES & SUPPORT SERVICES Computer systems analysis/analyst Computer science Data modeling/warehousing & DB admin. Computer graphics Modeling, virtual environs. & simulation Computer systems networking & telecom. Cloud computing Network & system admin./administrator Sys., networking, & LAN/WAN mgmt./mgr. Computer & ISS auditing/info. assurance Information technology project mgmt. PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES Culinary science/culinology San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 62 Page 71 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Bilingual & multilingual education Multicultural education Bilingual, multilingual, & multicultural ed., other Educational leadership & admin., general Administration of special education Adult & continuing education administration Edu., instructional, & curriculum supervision Higher education/higher education admin. Urban education & leadership Superintendency & educational system admin. International school administration/leadership Education entrepreneurship Educational admin. & supervision, other Educational evaluation & research Educational statistics & research methods Ed. assessment, testing, & measurement Learning sciences Ed. assessment, evaluation, & research, other Special education & teaching, general Education/teaching of individuals with hearing impairments including deafness Education/teaching of individuals with intellectual disabilities Education/teaching of individuals with orthopedic & physical health impairments Education/teaching of individuals with specific learning disabilities Education/teaching of individuals who are developmentally delayed Education/teaching of individuals in secondary special education programs Teaching English as a second or foreign language/ESL language instructor Teaching English or French as a second or foreign language, other Education/teaching of individuals with autism Chemistry teacher education Drama & dance teacher education French language teacher education German language teacher education Adult & continuing education & teaching Elementary education & teaching Secondary education & teaching Teacher education, multiple levels Montessori teacher education Waldorf/Steiner teacher education EDUCATION Early childhood education & teaching Online educator/online teaching International teaching & learning STEM educational methods Art teacher education Driver & safety teacher education English/language arts teacher education Foreign language teacher education Health teacher education Family & consumer sci./home ec., teacher ed. Tech. teacher ed./industrial arts teacher ed. Mathematics teacher education Music teacher education Physical education teaching & coaching Reading teacher education Science teacher ed./gen. Science teacher ed. Social science teacher education Social studies teacher education Computer teacher education Biology teacher education Education/teaching of individuals with emotional disturbances Education/teaching of individuals with multiple disabilities Education/teaching of individuals with vision impairments including blindness Education/teaching of individuals with speech or language impairments Education/teaching of individuals with traumatic brain injuries Junior high/intermediate/middle school education & teaching Teaching French as a 2nd or foreign language Communication arts & literature teacher education Speech teacher education Geography teacher education Latin teacher education Psychology teacher education Earth science teacher education Environmental education Spanish language teacher education Health occupations teacher education History teacher education Physics teacher education Adult literacy tutor/instructor San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 63 Page 72 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Engineering, general Applied engineering Aerospace, aeronautical, & astronautical/space engineering, general Astronautical engineering Mechanical engineering Agricultural engineering Architectural engineering Bioengineering & biomedical engineering Ceramic sciences & engineering Chemical engineering Chemical & biomolecular engineering Chemical engineering, other Civil engineering, general Geotechnical & geoenvironmental engineering Structural engineering Transportation & highway engineering Water resources engineering Civil engineering, other Computer engineering, general Computer hardware engineering Computer software engineering Electrical & electronics engineering Laser & optical engineering Telecommunications engineering Electrical, electronics, & comms. eng., other Engineering mechanics Engineering physics/applied physics Engineering science ENGINEERING Environmental/environ. health engineering Materials engineering Aerospace, aeronautical, & astronautical/space engineering, other Metallurgical engineering Mining & mineral engineering Nuclear engineering Ocean engineering Systems engineering Textile sciences & engineering Polymer/plastics engineering Construction engineering Forest engineering Industrial engineering Manufacturing engineering Operations research Surveying engineering Geological/geophysical engineering Paper science & engineering Electromechanical engineering Mechatronics, robotics, & automation eng. Biochemical engineering Engineering chemistry Biological/biosystems engineering Electrical & computer engineering Energy systems engineering, general Power plant engineering Energy systems engineering, other Engineering, other Engineering technologies/technicians, general Applied engineering technologies/technicians Architectural engineering tech./technicians Civil engineering technologies/technicians Water quality & wastewater treatment mgmt. & recycling technology/technician Laser & optical technology/technician Telecommunications technology/technician Integrated circuit design tech./technician Audio engineering technology/technician Electrical/electronic eng. tech./technicians, other Biomedical technology/technician Computer software technology/technician ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS Occ. safety & health technology/technician. Industrial safety technology/technician Process safety technology/technician Aeronautical/aerospace eng. tech./technician Mechanical/mechanical engineering technology/technician Auto. engineering technology/technician Marine engineering technology/technician Motorsports engineering tech./technician Mech. eng. related tech./technicians, other Mining technology/technician Construction engineering tech./technician Hydraulics & fluid power technology/technician Computer engineering technology/technician San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 64 Page 73 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Instrumentation technology/technician Robotics technology/technician Automation engineer technology/technician Mechatronics, robotics, & automation engineering technology/technician Electromechanical tech./technicians, other HVAC & refrigeration eng. tech./technician Electrical, elec., & comm. eng. tech./technician Environmental control tech./technicians, other Plastics & polymer engineering tech./technician Metallurgical technology/technician Industrial technology/technician Manufacturing engineering tech./technician Welding engineering technology/technician Chemical engineering technology/technician Semiconductor manufacturing tech./technician Composite materials technology/technician Industrial production tech./technicians, other ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS CONTINUED Computer/comp. systems tech./technician Computer hardware technology/technician Electromechanical/electromechanical engineering technology/technician Computer eng. tech./technicians, other Nuclear engineering technology/technician Engineering/industrial management Engineering design Packaging science Nanotechnology Energy systems technology/technician Power plant technology/technician Solar energy technology/technician Wind energy technology/technician Hydroelectric energy technology/technician Geothermal energy technology/technician Energy systems tech./technicians, other FOREIGN LANGUAGES, LITERATURES, & LINGUISTICS Foreign languages & literatures, general Linguistic, comparative, & related language studies & services, other East Asian languages, lit., & linguistics, gen. Chinese language & literature Japanese language & literature Korean language & literature East Asian languages, lit., & linguistics, other Russian language & literature Germanic languages, lit., & linguistics, general German language & literature Germanic languages, literature, & linguistics, other Romance languages, lit., & linguistics, general French language & literature Italian language & literature Spanish language & literature American Indian/Native American languages, literatures, & linguistics Romance languages, lit., & linguistics, other Arabic language & literature Hebrew language & literature Classics & classical lang., lit., & linguistics, gen. Ancient/classical Greek language & literature Latin language & literature Classics & classical lang., lit., & linguistics, other Hawaiian language & literature Southeast Asian & Australasian/Pacific languages, literatures, & linguistics, other American Sign Language (ASL) Linguistics of ASL & other sign languages Foreign languages, lit., & linguistics, other Family & consumer sciences/human sci., general Consumer merchandising/retailing mgmt. FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES/HUMAN SCIENCES Facilities planning & management Adult development & aging Textile science San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 65 Page 74 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting LEGAL PROFESSIONS & STUDIES Legal studies Legal administrative assistant/secretary Legal assistant/paralegal English language & literature, general ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE/LETTERS BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES Biology/biological sciences, general Molecular biology Structural biology Photobiology Radiation biology/radiobiology Biochemistry & molecular biology Biochemistry, biophysics & molecular bio., other Botany/plant biology Plant pathology/phytopathology Plant physiology Plant molecular biology Botany/plant biology, other Cell/cellular biology & histology Anatomy Developmental biology & embryology Cell/cellular & molecular biology Cell biology & anatomy Cell/cellular biology & anatomical sciences, other Microbiology, general Medical microbiology & bacteriology Virology Parasitology Mycology Immunology Microbiology & immunology Infectious disease & global health Microbiological sciences & immunology, other Entomology Animal physiology Genetics, general Molecular genetics Microbial & eukaryotic genetics Animal genetics Plant genetics Genome sciences/genomics Genetics, other Exercise physiology & kinesiology Pathology/experimental pathology Pharmacology Toxicology Molecular toxicology Environmental toxicology Biometry/biometrics Biostatistics Bioinformatics Computational biology Biomath., bioinformatics, & comp. bio., other Biotechnology Ecology Marine biology & biological oceanography Evolutionary biology Aquatic biology/limnology Environmental biology Population biology Conservation biology Systematic biology/biological systematics Ecology & evolutionary biology Epidemiology & biostatistics Ecology, evo., systematics & pop. bio., other Neuroscience Neuroanatomy Neurobiology & anatomy Neurobiology & behavior Neurobiology & neurosciences, other Biological & biomedical sciences, other San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 66 Page 75 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Mathematics, general Applied mathematics, general Computational mathematics Computational & applied mathematics Financial mathematics Mathematical biology MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS Applied mathematics, other Statistics, general Mathematical statistics & probability Mathematics & statistics Applied statistics, general Mathematics & statistics, other MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES Signal/geospatial intelligence Engineering acoustics Operational oceanography Undersea warfare Aerospace ground equipment technology Air & space operations technology Radar communications & systems technology Biological & physical sciences Peace studies & conflict resolution Mathematics & computer science Biopsychology Gerontology Historic preservation & conservation, general Historic preservation & conservation, other Accounting & computer science Behavioral sciences Nutrition sciences Holocaust & related studies Intercultural/multicultural & diversity studies Cultural studies/critical theory & analysis Human biology Dispute resolution Computational science Marine sciences Sustainability studies Anthrozoology Climate science Cultural studies & comparative literature MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES Earth systems science Economics & computer science Economics & foreign language/literature Environmental geosciences Geoarchaeology Geobiology Geography & environmental studies History & language/literature History & political science Linguistics & anthropology Linguistics & computer science Mathematics & atmospheric/oceanic science Philosophy, politics, & economics Data science, general Data science, other Data analytics, general Business analytics Data visualization Financial analytics Data analytics, other PARKS, RECREATION, LEISURE, & FITNESS STUDIES Parks, recreation, & leisure facilities mgmt., gen.Exercise science & kinesiology San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 67 Page 76 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Physical sciences, general Atmospheric sciences & meteorology, general Atmospheric chemistry & climatology Atmospheric physics & dynamics Meteorology Atmospheric sciences & meteorology, other Chemistry, general Analytical chemistry Inorganic chemistry Organic chemistry Physical chemistry Polymer chemistry Chemical physics Environmental chemistry Forensic chemistry PHYSICAL SCIENCES Theoretical chemistry Cheminformatics/chemistry informatics Chemistry, other Geology/earth science, general Geochemistry Geophysics & seismology Paleontology Hydrology & water resources science Geochemistry & petrology Oceanography, chemical & physical Geological & earth sciences/geosciences, other Physics, general Materials science Materials chemistry Materials sciences, other SCIENCE TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS Science technologies/technicians, general Nuclear/nuclear power technology/technician Physical science tech./technicians, other Science technologies/technicians, other Psychology, general Behavioral neuroscience PSYCHOLOGY Psychometrics & quantitative psychology SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES Criminal justice & corrections, general Corrections Criminal justice/law enforcement admin. Criminal justice/safety studies Criminal justice/police science Security & loss prevention services Juvenile corrections Securities services administration/management Law enforcement investigation & interviewing Law enforce., record-keeping & evidence mgmt. Critical incident response/special police ops. Protective services operations Suspension & debarment investigation Maritime law enforcement Cultural/archaeological resources protection Corrections & criminal justice, other Fire prevention & safety technology/technician Fire services administration Fire science/Firefighting Fire/arson investigation & prevention Fire protection, other Homeland security Crisis/emergency/disaster management Critical infrastructure protection Terrorism & counterterrorism operations Homeland security, other Security science & technology, general Criminalistics & criminal science Cyber/computer forensics & counterterrorism Cybersecurity defense strategy/policy Financial forensics & fraud investigation Geospatial intelligence Law enforcement intelligence analysis Security science & technology, other San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 68 Page 77 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Public policy analysis, general Education policy analysis Health policy analysis PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES PROFESSIONS International policy analysis Social work SOCIAL SCIENCES Social sciences, general Research methodology & quantitative methods Survey research/methodology Social sciences, other Demography & population studies Applied demography Demography, other Economics, general Applied economics Econometrics & quantitative economics Development economics & international dev. Geography Geographic information science & cartography Geography, other Political science & government, general American government & politics (US) Canadian government & politics Political economy Political science & government, other Sociology, general Applied/public sociology Geography & anthropology Social sciences, other Elec. & power trans. installation/installer, general Lineworker Electrical & power transmission installers, other Building/property maintenance CONSTRUCTION TRADES Building/construction site mgmt./manager Building construction technology/technician Well drilling/driller Blasting/blaster MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS Mechanics & repairers, general Computer installation & repair tech./technician Industrial electronics technology/technician Electrical/electronics maintenance & repair technologies/technicians, other Heavy equipment maintenance technology/technician Industrial mechanics & maintenance technology/technician Vehicle maintenance & repair technology/technician, general Autobody/collision & repair technology/technician Airframe mechanics & aircraft maintenance technology/technician Aircraft powerplant technology/technician Avionics maintenance technology/technician Recreation vehicle (RV) service technician High performance & custom engine technician/mechanic Energy systems installation & repair technology/technician Solar energy system installation & repair technology/technician Wind energy system installation & repair technology/technician Hydroelectric energy system installation & repair technology/technician Geothermal energy system installation & repair technology/technician San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 69 Page 78 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Computer numerically controlled (CNC) machinist technology/CNC machinist PRECISION PRODUCTION TRANSPORTATION & MATERIALS MOVING Airline/commercial/prof. pilot & flight crew Air traffic controller Construction/heavy equipment/earthmoving equipment operation Flight instructor Mobile crane operator/operation Commercial fishing Marine science/merchant marine officer VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS Art/art studies, general Music, general HEALTH PROFESSIONS & RELATED CLINICAL SCIENCES Dental assisting/assistant Health/health care administration/management Dental hygiene/hygienist Hospital & health care facilities admin./mgmt. Health unit coordinator/ward clerk Health unit manager/ward supervisor Health info./med. records admin./administrator Health info./med. records technology/technician Medical transcription/transcriptionist Medical office computer specialist/assistant Medical/health mgmt. & clinical asst./specialist Medical insurance coding specialist/coder Medical insurance specialist/medical biller Health/medical claims examiner Medical staff services technology/technician Long term care administration/management Clinical research coordinator Regulatory science/affairs Disease registry data management Healthcare innovation Healthcare info., privacy assurance & security Health & medical administrative services, other Medical/clinical assistant Occupational therapist assistant Pharmacy technician/assistant Physical therapy assistant Anesthesiologist assistant Pathology/pathologist assistant Medicinal & pharmaceutical chemistry Pharmacoeconomics/pharmaceutical econ. Clinical, hospital, & managed care pharmacy Pharmaceutical marketing & management Public health, general Environmental health Occupational health & industrial hygiene Community health & preventive medicine International public health/international health Health services administration Patient safety & healthcare quality Public health genetics Public health, other Rehab. & therapeutic professions, general Art therapy/therapist Dance therapy/therapist Music therapy/therapist Therapeutic recreation/recreational therapy Kinesiotherapy/kinesiotherapist Assistive/augmentative tech. & rehab. Eng. Animal-assisted therapy Drama therapy/therapist Horticulture therapy/therapist Play therapy/therapist Rehab. & therapeutic professions, other Health aide Medication aide Rehabilitation aide Physical therapy technician/aide San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 70 Page 79 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting HEALTH PROFESSIONS & RELATED CLINICAL SCIENCES CONTINUED Respiratory therapy technician/assistant Chiropractic technician/assistant Radiologist assistant Lactation consultant Speech-language pathology assistant Allied health & medical assisting services, other Cardiovascular technology/technologist Electrocardiograph technology/technician Electroneurodiagnostic/ electroencephalographic technology/ technologist Asian bodywork therapy Nuclear medical technology/technologist Perfusion technology/perfusionist Medical radiologic tech./sci. - radiation therapist Respiratory care therapy/therapist Surgical technology/technologist Gene/genetic therapy Radiologic technology/science - radiographer Diagnostic med. sonography/sonographer & ultrasound tech. Polysomnography Hearing instrument specialist Mammography technology/technician MRI tech./technician Hyperbaric medicine technology/technician Intraoperative neuromonitoring tech./technician Orthopedic technology/technician Optometric technician/assistant Phlebotomy technician/phlebotomist Renal/dialysis technologist/technician Sterile processing technology/technician Psychiatric/mental health services technician Opticianry/ophthalmic dispensing optician Allied health diagnostic, intervention, & treatment professions, other Ophthalmic technician/technologist Orthoptics/orthoptist Pharmacy administration & pharmacy policy & regulatory affairs Pharmacy Cardiopulmonary technology/technologist Radiation protection/health physics technician Medical informatics Bioethics/medical ethics Medical/health humanities Arts in medicine/health Health profess. ed., ethics, & humanities, other Traditional Chinese medicine & herbology Massage therapy/therapeutic massage Emergency medical technology/technician (EMT paramedic) Somatic bodywork Somatic bodywork & related services, other Movement therapy & movement education Herbalism/herbalist Registered nursing/registered nurse Nursing administration Adult health nurse/nursing Family practice nurse/nursing Maternal/child health & neonatal nurse/nursing Nursing science Pediatric nurse/nursing Psychiatric/mental health nurse/nursing Public health/community nurse/nursing Periop./op. room & surgical nurse/nursing Clinical nurse specialist Critical care nursing Occupational & environmental health nursing Emergency room/trauma nursing Nursing practice Palliative care nursing Clinical nurse leader Geriatric nurse/nursing Women's health nurse/nursing Forensic nursing Registered nursing, nursing administration, nursing research & clinical nursing, other Licensed practical/vocational nurse training Nursing assistant/aide & patient care asst./aide Practical nursing, vocational nursing & nursing assistants, other Business/commerce, general BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT, MARKETING, & RELATED SUPPORT SERVICES Finance, general San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 71 Page 80 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Business admin. & management, general Purchasing, procurement/acquisitions & contracts management Logistics, materials, & supply chain management Office management & supervision Operations management & supervision Non-profit/public/organizational management Customer service management Research & development management Project management Research administration Risk management Science/technology management Accounting Accounting & finance Admin. assistant & secretarial science, general BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT, MARKETING, & RELATED SUPPORT SERVICES CONTINUED Executive assistant/executive secretary Public finance Human resources management/personnel administration, general Hotel/motel administration/management Casino management Financial risk management Labor & industrial relations Labor studies Management information systems, general Management science Business statistics Actuarial science Marketing/marketing management, general Insurance Selling skills & sales operations Construction project management HISTORY History, general American history (United States) San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 72 Page 81 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting We thank you for your ongoing support of the University Now Initiative. The San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center would like to thank Southwestern College and the City of Chula Vista for their trust and generous support in completing this project. Many thanks to Assemblymember Alvarez, Senator Padilla, and their teams for championing the University Now Initiative. Thanks to Consejo de Desarrollo Económico de Tijuana and Centro Metropolitano de Información Económica y Empresarial for sharing the business survey with their colleagues in Baja California and the San Diego Workforce Partnership for sharing the business survey and conducting focus groups with their colleagues in San Diego County. PIC would also like to thank participating universities for sharing their program data. Acknowledgements Alicia L. Jurek, Ph.D., Economist Karen L. Boyd, Ph.D., Economist & Director of Research Gabriela Gonzalez Martinez, B.A., Economic Analyst Niloufar Nasrollahzadeh, M.P.P., Data Analyst Daniel Enemark, Ph.D., Chief Economist This report was authored by the San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center: San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 73 Page 82 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting University Now Initiative: Planning for a Thriving Higher Education Ecosystem Community Engagement Session Page 83 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Source: Pew Research Center Need for Higher Education Chula Vista is committed to creating a University-Innovation District to meet the high demand for a quality, accessible four-year education within the City and across the State and to address inequities in higher education that are prevalent in communities of color. 2,500,000 State Education Deficit Deficit of 1 million bachelor’s degree holders by 2030 Deficit of 1.5 million skilled workers by 2025 Chula Vista is the only city in California with a population over 200k that does not have a four-year nonprofit or state university Page 84 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Site Location The City-owned 383 acres of University- Innovation District Property is located at the terminus of Eastlake Parkway at the Hunte Parkway intersection, south of Millenia. The University-Innovation District is conveniently located: ●Within a walkable pedestrian paradise near the Otay Ranch Town Center, Millenia and other dining and retail options. ●0.5 miles to the SR-125 which the City and SANDAG are working to remove tolls from. ●Accessible public transit options with quick access to the BRT event 15-minutes. ●2 miles from the Olympic Training Center. ●7 miles from the US-Mexico border. The university property is surrounded by community amenities such as miles of trails and greenbelts. 160 acres of open space and the lower Otay Reservoir. Page 85 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Expanding the Ecosystem of Higher Education ●Southwestern College ○2-year degrees ○Certificates ○Workforce Education (stackable certificates) ○New potential to offer limited baccalaureate degree(s) ○Binational pathways (AB-91) ○University Partners Current higher education ecosystem Page 86 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Expanding the Ecosystem of Higher Education HOW DO WE EXPAND? Academic programming will drive university expansion into South County efforts Page 87 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Academic Program Planning A rich ecosystem of higher education that includes local and binational pathways to a robust offering of certificate, 2-year, 4-year, and graduate degrees in South County. A skilled workforce ready for the quality job opportunities of the future. Page 88 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting ●Industry-Driven ●Mapping future workforce > degree needs > universities with academic program expansion opportunities due to impaction ●Oversee the work: UNI Committee ●Outcome / Deliverables Academic Program Planning UNI Committee: Strengthening Transfer Pathways ●Identify resources/support needed to strengthen priority programs identified ●Consider ability to offer baccalaureate degree and resources/support needed if a priority program is appropriately identified ●(new addition) partner with university faculty through academic senate or priority programs Faculty Research Workgroup: Page 89 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Study Deliverables A vetted list of university programs for expansion mapped to specific opportunity (i.e. city land, SWC university center, etc.) Final report with recommendations to Joint University Task Force, City Council, and SWC Governing Board Legislative White Paper with recommendations to support university expansion submitted to legislative delegation 1 2 3 Page 90 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Workforce & Academic Program Needs Assessment Research ●Methodology for mapping workforce > degrees needed > to university programming  ●Recommended short-list of universities for targeted outreach and recruitment into higher education ecosystem ●Recommended strengthened or new pathways for transfer ●Not limited to undergraduate degrees (graduate, extension/industry certificate programs, etc) ●Inclusive of binational workforce and educational needs Other considerations Page 91 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 92 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting The San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center (PIC) is a partnership between The San Diego Foundation, the County of San Diego, and the world’s leading think tank – The Brookings Institution – to conduct research and policy analysis and help solve the region’s biggest problems. Page 93 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 94 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 95 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 96 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 97 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 98 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 99 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 100 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 101 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 102 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 103 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 104 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 105 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 106 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 107 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 108 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 109 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 110 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 111 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 112 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 113 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 114 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 115 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 116 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 117 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 118 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 119 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 120 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 121 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 122 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 123 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 124 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 125 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 126 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 127 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 128 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 129 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 130 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting UNI: Priority Sectors | Priority Jobs | Priority Academic Programs MISSION STATEMENT By empowering our binational region's distinctive potential, we envision a vibrant ecosystem of innovation and higher education opportunities and collaboration. Our mission is to be a catalyst for diversified excellence in career-readiness and a driver of economic vitality and mobility, all while honoring our uniqueness and nurturing a thriving binational region. Priority Sectors (SDREDC) Advanced Manufacturing Business Talent Healthcare Information and Communication Technologies Life Sciences Priority Jobs (SDRPIC) w/o local academic program Industrial Engineers Material Engineers & Scientists Labor Relations Specialists Insurance Underwriters Clinical Lab Technologists & Technicians Recreational Therapists Software Assurance Analysts & Testers Database Administrators Nuclear Engineers Food Scientists & Technologists Priority Academic Programs (SDRPIC) *unmet regional need based on the National Center for Education Statistics crosswalk Industrial Engineering Textile Science Human Resource Management / Dispute Resolution Actuarial Science Cell/Cellular Biology and Histology Therapeutic Recreation/Recreat ional Therapy Informatics Data Modeling/Warehou sing and Database Administration Nuclear Engineering Agriculture Example Page 131 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting •UNI Committee Development •Commencement of Research Scope and Academic Degrees Mapping •UNI Committee Kick-off Meeting JUL 2023 AUG 2023 SEPT 2023 OCT 2023 NOV 2023 UNI: Where We Are and Where We Are Going? NOV 2023 JAN 2024 FEB 2024 MAR-JUN 2024 JUN 2024 AUG 2024 •Regional Jobs and Education Survey of Residents •Future Workforce Needs Survey to Businesses •Conclusion of Research and Academic Degrees Mapping •Second UNI Committee Meeting and Release of Research Findings •Third UNI Committee Meeting •Development of Site Assessment Tool Preparation for Site Visits •Fourth UNI Committee Meeting •Drafting of White Paper •Compiling Surveys and Analysis of Findings •Community Engagement Sessions •Industry and Education Community Listening Sessions •Site Visits to University Campuses •Final UNI Committee Meeting •Release of the White Paper MISSION STATEMENT By empowering our binational region's distinctive potential, we envision a vibrant ecosystem of innovation and higher education opportunities and collaboration. Our mission is to be a catalyst for diversified excellence in career-readiness and a driver of economic vitality and mobility, all while honoring our uniqueness and nurturing a thriving binational region.Page 132 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 133 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 134 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 135 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Page 136 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting Watch Live! Building our Future Page 137 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting QUESTIONS Page 138 of 138 City of Chula Vista - City Council January 22, 2024 Post Agenda - Special Meeting