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21227.00 TCG_Escaya_Market Study
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-FAMILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO THE ACQUISITION OF THE RESIDENCES AT ESCAYA IN CHULA VISTA, CA DRAFT REPORT JUNE 9, 2021 (DATA PER MAY 2021) PREPARED FOR:HOMEFED CORPORATION369 SAN MIGUEL DRIVE, SUITE 265 NEWPORT BEACH, CALIFORNIA 92660 PHONE 949.717.6450 251 KEARNY STREET, 6TH FLOOR SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA 94108 PHONE 415.397.5490 725 PONCE DE LEON AVE, SUITE 135 ATLANTA, GEORGIA 30306 PHONE 404.879.5000 1 HOMEFED CORPORATIONMay 2021The Residences at Escaya – Chula Vista, CA 21227.00 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I.DEMAND DRIVERS1.Regional Setting2.Median Income3.Market Area Definition4.Employment SituationA.Historical GrowthB.Major IndustriesC.Jobs vs. Labor5.Commute Patterns6.Job Clusters7.DemographicsA.OverallB.Renters8.Demand AnalysisA.OverallB.By AMI9.Supply / Demand AssessmentA.Market AreaB.Chula VistaII.APARTMENT SUPPLY1.Macro-Market MetricsA.Inventory and DeliveriesB.Occupancy & Rents2.Existing InventoryA.LocationB.Market MetricsC.Amenities and Unit Specifications3. Future SupplyA.LocationB.DetailC.Delivery ForecastIII.SITE SPECIFIC ANALYSIS1.Local Setting2. Surrounding Land Uses3. Market Findings4. Rent PositioningA.Chunk RentsB.Rent to Size GraphAPPENDIX A.SurveyB.Demand Model1.Demographics Based2.Employment Based2 The Concord Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 HomeFed Corporation Page 1 May 2021 Escaya – Chula Vista, CA 21227.00 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Executive Summary To: HomeFed Corporation From: The Concord Group Date: May 2021 Re: Strategic Assessment of Multi-Family Supply and Demand Conditions Relative to the Acquisition of The Residences at Escaya in Chula Vista, CA ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Location: The Residences at Escaya (“the Project” and “Escaya”) is located within the south San Diego County city of Chula Vista. Chula Vista is situated just south of Downtown San Diego and alongside Interstates 5 and 805 and the 125 Toll Road, some of San Diego’s primary north/south regional connectors. The U.S. / Mexico border is located just ten miles south of the Project. The Project is centrally located in east Chula Vista, in the direct path of southerly inland growth in San Diego County. Market Area: The geographic source of competitive supply is defined as the south San Diego County, generally defined by communities south of the city of San Diego, encompassing all or parts of the cities of Chula Vista, Bonita, Otay Mesa / Ranch and National City. The Market Area for Escaya is defined by an aggregation of nine zip code geographies for purpose of data collection. The Concord Group (“TCG”) further defined four micro-submarkets within the Market Area, each characterized east / west location within the broader Market Area, and the cities they contain. The subject project falls within the East Chula Vista micro-market, defined by the zip codes corresponding to inland Chula Vista. Employment: San Diego County holds nearly 1.4M jobs, adding an annual average of 14,000 per year during the last ten years (including 2020, in which 118,000 jobs were lost due to the Covid pandemic). Before the Pandemic, an average of 25,000 jobs were added per year between 2009 and 2019. The Market Area economy is significantly impacted by four industries that comprise 59% of all jobs – Retail Trade (19%), Health Care (18%), Accommodation / Food Service (13%), and Manufacturing (9%). Demographics: The Market Area is home to 309,000 persons and 108,000 households. Over the past ten years (2010- 2020), the Market has added an average of 991 households per year, growing at a 0.9% annualized pace. The Market Area is characterized as high growth – while it accounts for 10.2% of in-place households in San Diego County, it captured 13.7% of County growth during the past ten-year period. Occupancy: The Market Area’s multi-family occupancy rate has consistently hovered above 95% during the last 15-years. 95% occupancy is the target “stabilized” occupancy for underwriting purposes. With current Market Area occupancy reaching 97.1% as of 1Q21, there is a significant under-supply of rental housing. Indicative of under-supply, Market Area rents have risen 4.7% in the past year (1Q21 vs. 1Q20). Rent Growth: Over the past five years, rents in the Market Area have grown at an annual pace of 3.8%, elevated above the County growth rate of 3.3% during the same time period. Current Supply: The Market Area possesses 36,000 institutionally managed apartment units, adding 4,700 new units over the past ten years (2010-2020), uplifting supply by over 10%. While supply has elevated over the past ten years, the scale is insufficient to meet demand, as indicated by the current high rate of occupancy and rent growth. TCG surveyed thirteen institutionally managed projects in the Market Area, each competitive with the Project relative to their vintage and amenitization. The survey set achieves a weighted average occupancy of 98% (in stabilized properties) and an average rent of $2,555, or $2.49 PSF. Relative Market Positioning: The Residences at Escaya are currently positioned mid-market relative to other Class A competitive properties in the Market Area. Key competitive projects positioned with Escaya include Otay Ranch (the nearest competitor) in East San Marcos and the two newest communities nearby – Urbana in Coastal Chula Vista and Alexan Rivue in East Chula Vista. 4 The Concord Group HomeFed Corporation Page 2 May 2021 Palomar Station – San Marcos, CA 21227.00 Future Supply: Eight market rate apartment projects are in planning and development in the Market Area, totaling 1,477 apartment units. TCG forecasts 84% of planned supply to deliver over the next 4.75-years, translating to more than 1,200 deliveries. During the same 4.75-year time period, TCG forecasts net new demand for 2,730 apartments, an imbalance that will translate to continued elevated rates of occupancy and rent growth in the Market Area. Market Rate Demand: TCG has developed a conservative demand model that considers household formation, household income growth, percentage of household income allocated to housing costs, rent versus own dynamics, and projected turnover. In the Market Area, TCG forecasts market-rate annual net new income qualified demand ($75k+; >75% AMI) of 575 units. Moderate Income Housing Demand: TCG segmented projected in-place (2020) and future (2025) apartment demand into distinct income cohorts (qualified by rentership and income) 18,800 income qualified by 2025. o 60%-80% AMI – in-place demand for 11,910 units (63% of demand) o 80%-100% AMI – in-place demand for 4,010 units (21% of demand) o 100%-120% AMI – in-place demand for 2,900 units (16% of demand) TCG’s anticipated demand for moderate income rental units made affordable to 60-120% AMI households far exceeds the existing supply of such units within the marketplace today, as well as the supply of such units anticipated to be delivered to the market over the next 5+ years. **** This assignment was completed by Alek Rugienius and Zachary Melodia, under the direction of Michael Reynolds. 5 The Concord Group I. DEMAND DRIVERS 6 EXHIBIT I-1REGIONAL SETTINGSAN DIEGO COUNTYMAY 2021Map: Google MapsPalomar Station is located in north San Diego County, in theinland community of San Marcos, straddling a relative midpoint between I-15 to the east and I-5 to the west, the two major north / south connectors in the County.DowntownSan DiegoLa Jolla /UniversityTown CenterKearnyMesaOceanside,Carlsbad,EncinitasBeachesPalomarAirportBiz Parks78FreewayInterstate15Interstate5North Island Naval Air Station94 FreewayInterstate 5Interstate 805905 Freeway125 FreewayLegendRed= ResidentialBlue= Retail / EntertainmentOrange= WorkplaceGreen = RecreationPurple= EducationYellow= TransportationOtay Open Space Sea World San DiegoSan Diego International AirportLa Jolla CoveUCSDUSDSDSUInterstate 8Torrey Pines Downtown San DiegoImperial BeachOtay Ranch Town CenterUS - Mexico Border Crossing StationUS - Mexico Border Crossing StationUS - Mexico Border Crossing StationUS - Mexico Border Crossing Station21227.00 Maps: RegThe Concord Group7 EXHIBIT I-2MEDIAN INCOMEMARKET AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES2020Source: ESRI5-MileRadiusMarketArea21227.00 Maps: IncomeThe Concord Group8 EXHIBIT I-3MARKET AREA DEFINITIONSAN DIEGO COUNTYMAY 2021Map: ESRI5-mileRadiusThe blue outline represents the Primary Market Area("PMA"), the area in which the majority of demand is expected to emante. The PMA is defined as the county of San Diego.The Escaya project is located in the southern portion of San Diego county within the Chula Vista submarket and will compete in an area in and around Chula Vista, between highway 54 and 905.See Next Page21227.00 Maps: MktAreaThe Concord Group9 EXHIBIT I-3MARKET AREA DEFINITIONSAN DIEGO COUNTYMAY 2021Map: ESRIOtay MesaCoastal Chula VistaEast Chula VistaBonita94 Freeway94 Freeway54 Freeway75 Freeway125 FreewayInterstate 5Interstate 805905 FreewayThe red outline represents the Competitive Market Area ("CMA"), which is defined by nine zip codes divided into four submarkets: East Chula Vista (red), Otay Mesa (blue),Bonita (green) and Coastal Chula Vista (purple). The CMA will compete in an area in and around Chula Vista, between highway 54 and 905.21227.00 Maps: MktAreaThe Concord Group10 EXHIBIT I-4AEMPLOYMENT SITUATION - HISTORICAL GROWTHSAN DIEGO COUNTY1990 THROUGH 2025San Diego County U.S.Growth Growth000s Num. Num. Perc. Num. Num. Perc.Historical - Annual1990 978 --- --- 109,526 --- ---1991 977 (1) -0.1% 108,425 (1,102) -1.0%1992 963 (15) -1.5% 108,799 374 0.3%1993 960 (3) -0.3% 110,931 2,132 2.0%1994 966 6 0.6% 114,393 3,462 3.1%1995 989 23 2.4% 117,400 3,007 2.6%1996 1,016 27 2.7% 119,828 2,428 2.1%1997 1,063 48 4.7% 122,941 3,113 2.6%1998 1,115 52 4.9% 126,146 3,205 2.6%1999 1,160 45 4.1% 129,228 3,082 2.4%2000 1,200 40 3.4% 132,011 2,783 2.2%2001 1,225 25 2.1% 132,073 62 0.0%2002 1,237 12 1.0% 130,634 (1,439) -1.1%2003 1,249 11 0.9% 130,331 (303) -0.2%2004 1,270 22 1.7% 131,769 1,439 1.1%2005 1,293 23 1.8% 134,034 2,264 1.7%2006 1,314 21 1.6% 136,435 2,402 1.8%2007 1,322 9 0.6% 137,981 1,546 1.1%2008 1,315 (8) -0.6% 137,224 (757) -0.5%2009 1,249 (66) -5.0% 131,296 (5,928) -4.3%2010 1,240 (8) -0.7% 130,345 (951) -0.7%2011 1,250 10 0.8% 131,914 1,569 1.2%2012 1,283 33 2.6% 134,157 2,243 1.7%2013 1,316 33 2.6% 136,364 2,206 1.6%2014 1,345 29 2.2% 138,940 2,576 1.9%2015 1,385 40 3.0% 141,825 2,885 2.1%2016 1,423 38 2.7% 144,336 2,511 1.8%2017 1,452 30 2.1% 146,608 2,272 1.6%2018 1,482 30 2.1% 148,908 2,301 1.6%2019 1,503 21 1.4% 150,905 1,996 1.3%2020 1,385 (118) -7.8% 142,185 (8,720) -5.8%Historical - 1 Year Growth1Q20 1,507 150,3251Q21 1,375 (131) -8.7% 142,152 (8,173) -5.4%Annual Average5-Yr 0 0.0% 72 0.1%10-Yr 14 1.1% 1,184 0.9%20-Yr 9 0.7% 509 0.4%25-Yr 16 1.4% 991 0.8%Forecast2021 1,408 23 1.6% 145,935 3,750 2.6%2022 1,465 57 4.0% 150,942 5,008 3.4%2023 1,491 26 1.8% 153,404 2,461 1.6%2024 1,507 16 1.1% 154,815 1,412 0.9%2025 1,517 9 0.6% 155,467 651 0.4%5-Yr 26 1.8% 148,537 2,656 1.8%Source: Historical - US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Forecast* - Moody's / Economy.com (May 2021)-9.0%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25San Diego CountyU.S.21227.00 Macro: JobOThe Concord Group11 EXHIBIT I-4BEMPLOYMENT SITUATION - MAJOR INDUSTRIESSAN DIEGO COUNTY2010 AND 2018East Chula Vista Market Area San Diego County2010 2018 Shift 2010 2018 Shift 2010 2018 ShiftJobs Num.ShareNum. Share Share Gr/Yr Num.ShareNum. Share Share Gr/Yr Num.ShareNum.ShareShare Gr/YrAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0 0% 0 0% 0.0 0.0% 1,079 2% 138 0% 0.1 -22.7% 11,142 1% 9,381 1% 0.7 -2.1%Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0% 10 0% 0.0 0.0% 6 0% 14 0% 1.9 11.2% 512 0% 308 0% 0.5 -6.2%Utilities 24 0% 2 0% 0.1 -26.7% 551 1% 38 0% 0.1 -28.4% 6,113 0% 6,604 0% 0.9 1.0%Construction 216 3% 195 3% 0.8 -1.3% 1,852 3% 2,830 4% 1.3 5.4% 55,320 4% 86,687 6% 1.3 5.8%Manufacturing 387 6% 37 1% 0.1 -25.4% 6,790 11% 7,232 9% 0.9 0.8% 95,191 8% 113,498 8% 1.0 2.2%Wholesale Trade 269 4% 142 2% 0.4 -7.7% 4,070 6% 4,404 6% 0.9 1.0% 43,592 4% 47,020 3% 0.9 1.0%Retail Trade 1,569 25% 2,003 27% 1.1 3.1% 12,844 20% 14,500 19% 0.9 1.5% 122,024 10% 134,601 9% 0.9 1.2%Transportation and Warehousing 150 2% 532 7% 3.0 17.1% 2,652 4% 4,942 6% 1.5 8.1% 21,508 2% 28,314 2% 1.1 3.5%Information 50 1% 51 1% 0.9 0.2% 773 1% 664 1% 0.7 -1.9% 28,685 2% 25,373 2% 0.8 -1.5%Finance and Insurance 133 2% 198 3% 1.3 5.1% 2,189 3% 2,764 4% 1.0 3.0% 41,691 3% 46,774 3% 1.0 1.4%Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 160 3% 132 2% 0.7 -2.4% 1,323 2% 1,270 2% 0.8 -0.5% 25,805 2% 28,865 2% 1.0 1.4%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 217 3% 276 4% 1.1 3.1% 2,824 4% 3,456 5% 1.0 2.6% 124,483 10% 148,248 10% 1.0 2.2%Management of Companies and Enterprises 36 1% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 464 1% 567 1% 1.0 2.5% 18,493 2% 25,865 2% 1.2 4.3%Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation191 3% 566 8% 2.5 14.5% 2,663 4% 4,477 6% 1.4 6.7% 76,066 6% 90,328 6% 1.0 2.2%Educational Services 133 2% 174 2% 1.1 3.4% 1,113 2% 1,095 1% 0.8 -0.2% 137,467 11% 139,281 10% 0.9 0.2%Health Care and Social Assistance 1,028 17% 868 12% 0.7 -2.1% 8,000 13% 13,747 18% 1.4 7.0% 141,594 12% 200,246 14% 1.2 4.4%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 62 1% 158 2% 2.1 12.4% 1,855 3% 1,234 2% 0.5 -5.0% 36,621 3% 36,599 3% 0.9 0.0%Accommodation and Food Services 1,193 19% 1,724 23% 1.2 4.7% 7,030 11% 9,750 13% 1.1 4.2% 129,459 11% 173,489 12% 1.1 3.7%Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 383 6% 304 4% 0.7 -2.8% 4,876 8% 3,358 4% 0.6 -4.6% 62,569 5% 53,290 4% 0.7 -2.0%Public Administration 0 0% 0 0% 0.0 0.0% 0 0% 0 0% --- --- 51,944 4% 45,187 3% 0.7 -1.7%Total6,2017,3722.2% 62,954 76,4802.5% 1,230,279 1,439,9582.0%Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng546 9% 606 8% 0.9 1.3% 6,800 11% 8,057 11% 1.0 2.1% 210,472 17% 249,752 17% 1.0 2.2%Excluding Education6,068 98% 7,198 98% 1.0 2.2% 61,841 98% 75,385 99% 1.0 2.5% 1,092,812 89% 1,300,677 90% 1.0 2.2%Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies1.070.711.220.930.080.931.411.140.980.880.941.211.141.011.020.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60Retail Trade Health Care and SocialAssistanceAccommodation and FoodServicesFinance, Real Estate, ProfServices, MngManufacturingShift Share - 2010-2018East Chula VistaMarket AreaSan Diego County3.1%-2.1%4.7%1.3%-25.4%1.5%7.0%4.2%2.1%0.8%1.2%4.4%3.7%2.2%2.2%-30.0%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%Retail Trade Health Care and SocialAssistanceAccommodation and FoodServicesFinance, Real Estate, ProfServices, MngManufacturingAnnual Job Growth - 2010-2018East Chula VistaMarket AreaSan Diego CountyThe four industries highlighted in blue text aggregate to the "Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal.21227.00 Macro.xlsx: JobGrThe Concord Group12 EXHIBIT I-4CEMPLOYMENT SITUATION - JOBS VS. LABORSAN DIEGO COUNTY2018East Chula Vista Market Area San Diego CountyJobs Labor Jobs Labor% of% of% of% ofJobsLaborJobsNum. ShareMarket Area Num. ShareMarket AreaJobs to Labor Num. Share Cty Num. Share CtyJobs to Labor Num. Share Num. ShareJobs to LaborAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting0 0% 0% 150 1% 16% 0.0 138 0% 1% 948 1% 7% 0.1 9,381 1% 12,659 1% 0.7Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction10 0% 71% 11 0% 15% 0.914 0% 5% 74 0% 16% 0.2 308 0% 456 0% 0.7Utilities2 0% 5% 870% 19% 0.038 0% 1% 464 0% 7% 0.1 6,604 0% 6,253 0% 1.1Construction195 3% 7% 1,242 5% 12% 0.2 2,830 4% 3% 10,083 7% 12% 0.3 86,687 6% 83,607 6% 1.0Manufacturing37 1% 1% 1,824 8% 14% 0.0 7,232 9% 6% 12,615 9% 11% 0.6 113,498 8% 112,696 8% 1.0Wholesale Trade142 2% 3% 971 4% 16% 0.1 4,404 6% 9% 6,251 4% 12% 0.7 47,020 3% 51,672 4% 0.9Retail Trade2,003 27% 14% 2,707 12% 14% 0.7 14,500 19% 11% 19,224 13% 14% 0.8 134,601 9% 138,619 10% 1.0Transportation and Warehousing532 7% 11% 955 4% 15% 0.6 4,942 6% 17% 6,212 4% 17% 0.8 28,314 2% 36,622 3% 0.8Information51 1% 8% 399 2% 19% 0.1 664 1% 3% 2,060 1% 7% 0.3 25,373 2% 30,738 2% 0.8Finance and Insurance198 3% 7% 863 4% 18% 0.2 2,764 4% 6% 4,735 3% 10% 0.6 46,774 3% 49,356 3% 0.9Real Estate and Rental and Leasing132 2% 10% 476 2% 16% 0.3 1,270 2% 4% 3,005 2% 10% 0.4 28,865 2% 29,057 2% 1.0Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services276 4% 8% 2,160 9% 21% 0.1 3,456 5% 2% 10,359 7% 7% 0.3 148,248 10% 144,412 10% 1.0Management of Companies and Enterprises0 0% 0% 487 2% 20% 0.0 567 1% 2% 2,491 2% 10% 0.2 25,865 2% 25,595 2% 1.0Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation566 8% 13% 1,769 8% 15% 0.3 4,477 6% 5% 11,429 8% 12% 0.4 90,328 6% 93,823 6% 1.0Educational Services 174 2% 16% 551 2% 21% 0.3 1,095 1% 1% 2,641 2% 2% 0.4 139,281 10% 136,946 9% 1.0Health Care and Social Assistance868 12% 6% 4,285 19% 20% 0.2 13,747 18% 7% 21,797 15% 11% 0.6 200,246 14% 199,810 14% 1.0Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation158 2% 13% 402 2% 15% 0.4 1,234 2% 3% 2,629 2% 7% 0.5 36,599 3% 36,107 2% 1.0Accommodation and Food Services1,724 23% 18% 2,845 12% 15% 0.6 9,750 13% 6% 19,481 14% 11% 0.5 173,489 12% 170,500 12% 1.0Other Services (excluding Public Administration)304 4% 9% 911 4% 15% 0.3 3,358 4% 6% 5,965 4% 11% 0.6 53,290 4% 52,169 4% 1.0Public Administration0 0% --- 0 0% --- ---0 0% 0% 0 0% 0% --- 45,187 3% 44,728 3% 1.0Total7,37210% 23,09516% 0.3 76,4805% 142,46310% 0.5 1,439,958 1,455,8251.0Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng606 8% 8% 3,986 17% 19% 0.2 8,057 11% 3% 20,590 14% 8% 0.4 249,752 17% 248,420 17% 1.0Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies27%12%23%8%1%19%18%13%11%9%9%14%12%17%8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Retail Trade Health Care and SocialAssistanceAccommodation and FoodServicesFinance, Real Estate, ProfServices, MngManufacturingJobs - Industry ShareEast Chula VistaMarket AreaSan Diego County12%19%12%17%8%13%15%14%14%9%10%14%12%17%8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%Retail Trade Health Care and SocialAssistanceAccommodation and FoodServicesFinance, Real Estate, ProfServices, MngManufacturingLabor - Industry ShareEast Chula VistaMarket AreaSan Diego CountyThe four industries highlighted in blue text aggregate to the "Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal.21227.00 Macro.xlsx: JobIThe Concord Group13 EXHIBIT I-5COMMUTE PATTERNSSAN DIEGO COUNTY2018East Chula Vista Market Area San Diego County Employed Labor Living in East Chula Vista - Location of WorkGeography:Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc.Jobs/Labor RatioJobs7,37276,4801,439,958Employed Labor23,095142,4631,455,825Jobs/Labor0.30.51.0Commute to Work(Living in Geography)Distance to WorkUnder 10-Miles6,524 28% 51,965 36% 680,508 47%10-24 Miles10,046 43% 53,558 38% 424,014 29%25-50 Miles1,407 6% 8,336 6% 88,749 6%Over 50-Miles5,118 22% 28,604 20% 262,554 18%Direction of WorkNortherly18,026 78% 117,484 82% 761,965 52%Southerly1,872 8% 11,605 8% 447,523 31%Easterly1,052 5% 18,364 13% 292,603 20%Westerly17,951 78% 77,598 54% 741,067 51%Location of WorkSan Diego city, CA 10,561 45.7% 66,621 46.8%Chula Vista city, CA 3,535 15.3% 20,387 14.3%National City city, CA 705 3.1% 5,945 4.2%Los Angeles city, CA 617 2.7% 3,333 2.3%El Cajon city, CA 483 2.1% 2,776 1.9%La Mesa city, CA 323 1.4% 2,032 1.4%Coronado city, CA 175 0.8% 1,524 1.1%Poway city, CA 230 1.0% 1,386 1.0%Carlsbad city, CA 214 0.9% 1,144 0.8%Santee city, CA 165 0.7% 1,112 0.8%Escondido city, CA 177 0.8% 1,111 0.8%Irvine city, CA 199 0.9% 1,072 0.8%Lemon Grove city, CA 109 0.5% 978 0.7%Vista city, CA 121 0.5% 828 0.6%Imperial Beach city, CA68 0.3% 780 0.5%Oceanside city, CA 114 0.5% 705 0.5%Riverside city, CA 117 0.5% 685 0.5%Anaheim city, CA 136 0.6% 676 0.5%Ontario city, CA 105 0.5% 666 0.5%San Marcos city, CA 121 0.5% 656 0.5%Bonita CDP, CA 105 0.5% 654 0.5%Santa Ana city, CA 107 0.5% 595 0.4%La Presa CDP, CA 44 0.2% 549 0.4%Encinitas city, CA 95 0.4% 519 0.4%Spring Valley CDP, CA 65 0.3% 479 0.3%Orange city, CA 80 0.3% 435 0.3%Balance of Cities 4,324 18.7% 24,815 17.4%Subtotal 23,095 100% 142,463 100%Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic StudiesSharp Medical CenterOtay Ranch Town Center (mall)DowntownSharp Memorial Hospital21227.00 Macro: JobCThe Concord Group14 EXHIBIT I-6JOB CLUSTERS15-MILE RADIUS2018Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density)All Jobs - 697K15-MileRadius21227.00 Maps: Heat-JobThe Concord Group15 EXHIBIT I-6JOB CLUSTERS15-MILE RADIUS2018Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density)Health Care - 120K (17%)15-MileRadius21227.00 Maps: Heat-JobThe Concord Group16 EXHIBIT I-6JOB CLUSTERS15-MILE RADIUS2018Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density)Manufacturing - 37K (5%)15-MileRadius21227.00 Maps: Heat-JobThe Concord Group17 EXHIBIT I-6JOB CLUSTERS15-MILE RADIUS2018Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density)15-MileRadiusEducation - 69K (10%)21227.00 Maps: Heat-JobThe Concord Group18 EXHIBIT I-7A DEMOGRAPHICS - OVERALL SAN DIEGO COUNTY 2020 East Chula Vista Coastal Chula Vista Otay Mesa Bonita Market Area San Diego County U.S. Geography:Num. Perc. %MA Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. %Cty Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Population 2020 87,212 21% 166,834 119,625 35,382 409,053 12.3% 3,318,139 333,793,107 2025 91,998 22% 170,136 122,851 36,108 421,093 12.3% 3,418,265 346,021,282 Gr./ Yr.957 1.1% 40% 660 0.4% 645 0.5% 145 0.4% 2,408 0.6% 12.0% 20,025 0.6% 2,445,635 0.7% Households 2010 19,399 18% 50,610 27,781 10,386 108,176 9.9% 1,087,876 116,857,098 2020 25,070 21% 52,480 29,730 10,809 118,088 10.2% 1,160,040 126,083,849 Gr./ Yr.567 2.6% 57% 187 0.4% 195 0.7% 42 0.4% 991 0.9% 13.7% 7,216 0.6% 922,675 0.8% 2025 26,314 22% 53,272 30,479 10,965 121,030 10.1% 1,194,461 130,658,485 Gr./ Yr.249 1.0% 42% 158 0.3% 150 0.5% 31 0.3% 588 0.5% 8.5% 6,884 0.6% 914,927 0.7% Renters ('20)7,100 28% 14% 26,837 51% 13,627 46% 2,280 21% 49,844 42% 9.3% 534,021 46% 45,948,740 36% HH Size ('20)3.5 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.5 2.9 2.6 1 Person 2,691 11% 15% 10,389 20% 3,261 11% 1,392 13% 17,997 15% 6.5% 278,545 24% 33,668,772 27% 1-2 Persons 8,018 32% 18% 23,610 45% 9,178 31% 4,505 42% 45,715 39% 7.1% 640,476 55% 74,930,945 59% 3+ Persons 17,052 68% 24% 28,870 55% 20,552 69% 6,304 58% 72,373 61% 13.9% 519,564 45% 51,152,904 41% Median Income (000s) 2020 $107.8 141% $61.9 $61.6 $120.6 $76.6 94.7% $80.9 $62.2 2025 $115.9 140% $67.9 $68.5 $136.1 $83.1 93.4% $89.0 $67.3 Gr./ Yr.$1.6 1.5%$1.2 1.9% $1.4 2.2% $3.1 2.4% $1.3 1.6%$1.6 1.9%$1.0 1.6% Income Profile ('20) Under $35K 2,850 11% 11% 13,923 27% 7,610 26% 1,026 9% 25,408 22% 10.8% 235,984 20% 35,058,741 28% $35-$50K 1,428 6% 11% 7,050 13% 4,133 14% 609 6% 13,220 11% 11.1% 118,583 10% 15,355,728 12% $50-$75K 2,928 12% 15% 9,266 18% 5,564 19% 1,242 11% 19,000 16% 10.4% 182,960 16% 21,754,456 17% $75-$100K 3,525 14% 21% 7,451 14% 4,416 15% 1,284 12% 16,676 14% 11.4% 146,250 13% 15,916,453 13% $100-$150K 7,427 30% 32% 8,779 17% 4,915 17% 2,397 22% 23,518 20% 10.9% 215,435 19% 19,324,523 15% $150-$200K 4,080 16% 34% 3,799 7% 2,073 7% 1,996 18% 11,948 10% 9.8% 122,472 11% 8,675,469 7% Over $200K 2,833 11% 34% 2,212 4% 1,012 3% 2,254 21% 8,310 7% 6.0% 138,332 12% 9,996,846 8% Income Profile ('25)Gr/Yr Gr/Yr Gr/Yr Gr/Yr Gr/Yr Gr/Yr Gr/Yr Under $35K 2,735 -0.8% 12% 12,687 -1.8% 6,917 -1.9% 866 -3.3% 23,206 -1.8% 10.9% 213,761 -2.0% 33,330,908 -1.0% $35-$50K 1,269 -2.3% 10% 6,709 -1.0% 3,951 -0.9% 518 -3.2% 12,447 -1.2% 11.2% 111,184 -1.3% 15,145,196 -0.3% $50-$75K 2,613 -2.3% 14% 9,229 -0.1% 5,424 -0.5% 1,092 -2.5% 18,358 -0.7% 10.2% 179,160 -0.4% 22,071,969 0.3% $75-$100K 3,269 -1.5% 20% 7,718 0.7% 4,579 0.7% 1,178 -1.7% 16,744 0.1% 11.2% 149,571 0.5% 16,741,338 1.0% $100-$150K 7,491 0.2% 30% 9,541 1.7% 5,563 2.5% 2,305 -0.8% 24,901 1.1% 10.7% 231,991 1.5% 21,366,846 2.0% $150-$200K 4,744 3.1% 33% 4,591 3.9% 2,681 5.3% 2,155 1.5% 14,171 3.5% 10.0% 142,316 3.0% 10,181,093 3.3% Over $200K 4,192 8.2% 37% 2,797 4.8% 1,355 6.0% 2,851 4.8% 11,195 6.1% 6.7% 166,454 3.8% 11,819,510 3.4% Age Profile ('20) Median - Pop.33.7 97% 35.5 33.2 39.6 34.7 96.4% 36.0 38.5 Householder Under 25 462 2% 15% 1,659 3% 826 3% 121 1% 3,067 3% 6.0% 50,793 4% 5,029,074 4% 25-34 5,211 21% 25% 8,729 17% 5,543 19% 1,225 11% 20,709 18% 10.0% 206,243 18% 19,460,958 15% 35-44 7,011 28% 29% 9,552 18% 5,522 19% 2,122 20% 24,206 20% 11.5% 209,598 18% 21,183,108 17% 45-54 6,246 25% 26% 9,943 19% 5,940 20% 2,290 21% 24,418 21% 12.0% 203,824 18% 22,084,394 18% 55-64 3,825 15% 18% 9,597 18% 5,564 19% 2,225 21% 21,211 18% 10.1% 210,622 18% 24,344,747 19% 65 Plus 2,315 9% 9% 13,000 25% 6,328 21% 2,825 26% 24,470 21% 8.8% 278,936 24% 33,979,935 27% Source: ESRI 11% 6% 12% 14% 30% 16% 11% 27% 13% 18% 14% 17% 7% 4% 26% 14% 19% 15% 17% 7% 3% 9% 6% 11% 12% 22% 18% 21%22% 11% 16% 14% 20% 10% 7% 20% 10% 16% 13% 19% 11% 12% 28% 12% 17% 13% 15% 7%8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Under $35K $35-$50K $50-$75K $75-$100K $100-$150K $150-$200K Over $200K Household Income Distribution East Chula Vista Coastal Chula Vista Otay Mesa Bonita Market Area San Diego County U.S. 21227.00 Macro:DemoESRI THE CONCORD GROUP 19 EXHIBIT I-7BDEMOGRAPHICS - RENTERSSAN DIEGO COUNTY2020 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 2019 AMERICAN FACTFINDER [CENSUS] RENTERSHIP DATA)East Chula Vista Market Area San Diego CountyRenter HouseholdsRenter HouseholdsRenter HouseholdsAll HHs % RentAll HHs % RentAll HHs % RentGeography:Num. Shr. Rent HHs Shr. Num. Shr. Rent HHs Shr. Num. Shr. Rent HHs Shr.HouseholdsTotal 25,070 100% 29% 7,260 100% 118,088 100%42% 50,013 100% 1,160,040 100% 47% 541,402 100%Income RangeUnder $35K 2,850 11% 45% 1,276 18% 25,40822% 66% 16,649 34% 235,984 20% 68% 159,943 30%$35-$50K 1,428 6% 56% 795 11% 13,220 11% 61% 8,017 16% 118,583 10% 61% 72,604 14%$50-$75K 2,928 12% 43% 1,267 18% 19,000 16% 48% 9,199 19% 182,960 16% 55% 101,495 19%$75-$100K3,525 14% 29% 1,039 14% 16,676 14% 38% 6,374 13% 146,250 13% 47% 68,548 13%$100-$150K 7,427 30% 22% 1,598 22% 23,518 20% 25% 5,821 12% 215,435 19% 36% 77,125 14%$150-$200K 4,080 16% 17% 708 10% 11,948 10% 17% 2,020 4% 122,472 11% 21% 25,340 5%Over $200K 2,833 11% --- 491 7% 8,310 7% --- 1,405 3% 138,332 12% --- 28,621 5%Age RangeUnder 25 462 2% 77% 355 5% 3,067 3% 86% 2,642 5% 50,793 4% 93% 47,360 9%25-34 5,211 21% 51% 2,658 35% 20,709 18% 67% 13,891 27% 206,243 18% 77% 159,133 29%35-447,011 28% 34% 2,412 32% 24,206 20% 49% 11,973 23% 209,598 18% 56% 116,565 21%45-546,246 25% 20% 1,251 16% 24,418 21% 37% 8,957 18% 203,824 18% 41% 84,451 16%55-643,825 15% 15% 555 7% 21,211 18% 32% 6,833 13% 210,622 18% 31% 64,537 12%65 Plus2,315 9% 18% 414 5% 24,470 21% 27% 6,677 13% 278,936 24% 26% 72,648 13%Household Size1-Person2,691 11% 46% 1,227 17% 17,997 15% 52% 9,337 19% 278,545 24% 55% 152,957 28%1-2-Person8,018 32% 33% 2,663 37% 45,715 39% 44% 20,273 41% 640,476 55% 47% 304,048 56%3 Person4,021 16% 27% 1,084 15% 20,10117% 42% 8,483 17% 179,458 15% 46% 82,038 15%4+ Person13,031 52% 27% 3,514 48% 52,272 44% 40% 21,082 42% 340,106 29% 46% 154,996 29%Units in Building StructureSFD 3,766 52% 17,422 35% 180,031 33%2-4 Unit 632 9% 4,700 9% 62,007 11%50+ 1,088 15% 7,745 15% 90,739 17%All7,260 50,013 541,402Source: American Factfinder (US Census)18%34%30%11%16%14%18%19%19%14%13%13%22%12%14%10%4%5%7%3%5%0%20%40%60%80%100%East Chula Vista Market Area San Diego CountyShare of Renters by IncomeUnder $35K$35-$50K$50-$75K$75-$100K$100-$150K$150-$200KOver $200K5%5%9%35%27%29%32%23%21%16%18%16%7%13%12%5%13%13%0%20%40%60%80%100%East Chula VistaMarket AreaSan Diego CountyShare of Renters by AgeUnder 2525-3435-4445-5455-6465 Plus21227.00 Macro:Demo-AFFTHE CONCORD GROUP20 EXHIBIT I-8ADEMAND ANALYSIS - OVERALLSAN DIEGO COUNTY2020 THROUGH 2025I. Demographics Based Demand (Appendix B1)II. Employment Based Demand (Appendix B2)San Diego CountyMarket AreaEast Chula VistaUnits DemandedRent% of% of Share of% of Share of5-YrRangeNum. Bld. Dem. Num. Bld. Dem. CtyNum. Bld. Dem. MA Geography2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 AverageUnder $1,200 520 --- 54 --- 10% 4 --- 8% San Diego County 5,283 13,276 6,145 3,830 2,1996,146$1,200 - $1,500 236 --- 26 --- 11% 3 --- 10% Market Area 634 1,593 737 460 264738$1,500 - $1,800 330 --- 30 --- 9% 4 --- 14% % Cty 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%12%$1,800 - $2,100 567 12% 27 7% 5% 3 3% 13% East Chula Vista 158 398 184 115 66184$2,100 - $2,500 1,602 33% 101 28% 6% 9 8% 8% % MA 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%25%$2,500 - $3,000 1,102 23% 104 29% 9% 32 30% 31%$3,000 + 1,538 32% 131 36% 9% 62 59% 48%Total 5,894 --- 473 --- 8% 117 --- 25%Buildable Demand 4,809 100% 363 100% 8% 106 100% 29%III. Historical Market ScaleMarket Area East Chula VistaMetricSan Diego CountyNum.% CtyNum.% MASourceHouseholdsExhibit I-7ATotal - 2020 1,160,040 118,088 10.2% 25,070 21%Annual Growth - '20-'25 6,884 588 8.5% 249 42%Renters (% Rent x Growth) 3,169 248 7.8% 70 28%Renters w/ Incomes >$75K 199,635 15,621 7.8% 3,836 25%Jobs/Labor (2018)Exhibit I-4CJobs 1,439,958 76,480 5.3% 7,372 10%Labor 1,455,825 142,463 9.8% 23,095 16%CompletionsExhibit II-1A2020 2,873 631 22.0% 297 47%2019 5,521 622 11.3% 622 100%2018 4,592 526 11.5% 309 59%5-Yr 3,628 478 13.2% 306 64%10-Yr 3,212 473 14.7% 296 62%20-Yr 2,431 414 17.0% 195 47%IV. TCG Concluded Demand (considers I, II, III above)Market Area East Chula VistaGeography:San Diego CountyNum.% CtyNum.% MATCG Demand4,80057612%28850%3%8%30%59%12%33%23%32%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%$1,800-$2,100$2,100-$2,500$2,500-$3,000$3,000+Share of New Apartment Demand by Rent RangeSan Diego CountyMarket AreaEast Chula Vista21227.00 Macro: Dem-SclThe Concord Group21 EXHIBIT I-8B DEMAND ANALYSIS - BY AMI MARKET AREA 2020 THROUGH 2025 Unit Type Metric AMI Studio 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed+ Total Source / Comment I. Key Assumptions Targeted Household Sizes 11&23&45+ •TCG Distribution of Renters by Household Size 9% 31% 38% 21% • Exhibit I-7A Gross Rent 60% $1,273 $1,363 $1,636 $1,890 • Per CTCAC 80% $1,698 $1,818 $2,181 $2,520 100% $2,122 $2,272 $2,726 $3,150 120% $2,546 $2,726 $3,271 $3,780 Minimum Income 60% $43,653 $46,738 $56,078 $64,800 • Max 35% of 80% $58,203 $62,318 $74,770 $86,400 income allocated 100% $72,754 $77,897 $93,463 $108,000 to housing 120% $87,305 $93,477 $112,155 $129,600 Maximum Income 60% $50,940 $58,200 $72,720 $78,540 • Per CTCAC 80% $67,920 $77,600 $96,960 $104,720 100% $84,900 $97,000 $121,200 $130,900 120% $101,880 $116,400 $145,440 $157,080 II. Existing Household Demand (2020) - 60% AMI - 120% AMI Qualified Income Range Min $43,653 - $46,738 - $56,078 - $64,800 $43,653 - • From above Max $101,880 $116,400 $145,440 $157,080 $157,080 Renter Households 50,013 50,013 50,013 50,013 50,013 • Exhibit I-7B x % Income Qualified 38% 38% 37% 32% 50% = Income Qualified Renters (2020) 19,185 19,226 18,627 16,235 25,073 • Exhibit I-7B x Composition Qualified (HH Size) 9% 31% 38% 21% 73% = Inc. & Comp. Qualified Renters (2020) 1,797 6,020 7,110 3,434 18,361 • Exhibit I-7B + 5-Year Growth 45 150 177 86 457 = Income Qualified Renters (2025) (1) 1,842 6,170 7,287 3,519 18,818 • Exhibit I-7A III. Demand and Capture by AMI Category 60-80% AMI Gross Rent $1,273 - $1,363 - $1,636 - $1,890 - $1,698 $1,818 $2,181 $2,520 Qualified Income Range $43,653 - $46,738 - $56,078 - $64,800 - $67,920 $77,600 $96,960 $104,720 Income Qualified Renter Households (2020)9,987 11,605 12,562 10,677 x Share of Overall Income Qualified Renters 52% 60% 67% 66% = Inc. & Comp. Qualified Renters (2020)935 3,634 4,795 2,258 11,622 + 5-Year Growth 23 91 119 56 290 = Income Qualified Renters (2025) (1)959 3,724 4,915 2,314 11,912 (1) Income qualified renter total within given income range for each AMI category. AMI category totals overlap across bedroom sizes. 21227.00 Macro: Dem-AMI Page 1 of 2 The Concord Group 22 EXHIBIT I-8B DEMAND ANALYSIS - BY AMI MARKET AREA 2020 THROUGH 2025 Unit Type Metric AMI Studio 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed+ Total Source / Comment III. Demand and Capture by AMI Category (continued) 80-100% AMI Gross Rent $1,698 - $1,818 - $2,181 - $2,520 - $2,122 $2,272 $2,726 $3,150 Qualified Income Range $67,920 - $77,600 - $96,960 - $104,720 - $84,900 $97,000 $121,200 $130,900 Income Qualified Renter Households (2020)5,129 4,946 3,243 3,048 x Share of Overall Income Qualified Renters 27% 26% 17% 19% = Inc. & Comp. Qualified Renters (2020)480 1,549 1,238 645 3,912 + 5-Year Growth 12 39 31 16 97 = Income Qualified Renters (2025) (1)492 1,587 1,269 661 4,009 100-120% AMI Gross Rent $2,122 - $2,272 - $2,726 - $3,150 - $2,546 $2,726 $3,271 $3,780 Qualified Income Range $84,900 - $97,000 - $121,200 - $130,900 - $101,880 $116,400 $145,440 $157,080 Income Qualified Renter Households (2020)4,069 2,674 2,822 2,510 x Share of Overall Income Qualified Renters 21% 14% 15% 15% = Inc. & Comp. Qualified Renters (2020)381 837 1,077 531 2,827 + 5-Year Growth 921271370 = Income Qualified Renters (2025) (1)391 858 1,104 544 2,897 (1) Income qualified renter total within given income range for each AMI category. AMI category totals overlap across bedroom sizes. 21227.00 Macro: Dem-AMI Page 2 of 2 The Concord Group 23 EXHIBIT I-9ASUPPLY / DEMAND ASSESSMENTMARKET AREA2021 THROUGH 2025ProjectionAnnual 4.75-YrYear: 1Q21 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total SourceApartment InventoryStart of Period 36,500 36,843 37,644 37,644 37,677Planned Supply 343 801 0 33 81 1,257 Exhibit II-3CTotal Additions 343 801 0 33 811,257End of Period 36,500 36,843 37,644 37,644 37,677 37,757 Exhibit II-1AOccupancy Start of Period2-4Q '21Occupied Units35,442 35,874 36,450 37,026 37,602Additional Demand432 576 576 576 5762,736Exhibit I-8AEnd of PeriodOccupied Units35,442 35,874 36,450 37,026 37,602 38,178Occupancy Rate97.1% 97.4% 96.8% 98.4% 99.8% 101.1%Exhibit II-1BOver / Under Supply EvaluationStabilized Occupancy Target95%95% 95% 95% 95% 95%Stabilized Occupied Units34,675 35,001 35,762 35,762 35,793 35,869(Under) / Over Supply(767)(872) (688) (1,264) (1,809) (2,308)90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%(3,000)(2,000)(1,000)01,0002,0003,0001Q21 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025(Under) / Over Supply(Under) / Over Supply - BarOccupancy - Line21227.00 Macro: SD1THE CONCORD GROUP24 EXHIBIT I-9BSUPPLY / DEMAND ASSESSMENTEAST CHULA VISTA2021 THROUGH 2025ProjectionAnnual4.75-YrYear:1Q212021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total SourceApartment InventoryStart of Period4,543 4,779 5,331 5,331 5,331Planned Supply236 552 0 0 48836 Exhibit II-3CTotal Additions236 552 0 0 48836End of Period4,5434,779 5,331 5,331 5,331 5,379Exhibit II-1AOccupancy Start of Period2-4Q '21Occupied Units4,207 4,423 4,711 4,999 5,287Additional Demand216 288 288 288 2881,368Exhibit I-8AEnd of PeriodOccupied Units4,2074,423 4,711 4,999 5,287 5,575Occupancy Rate92.6% 92.5% 88.4% 93.8% 99.2% 103.6%Exhibit II-1BOver / Under Supply EvaluationStabilized Occupancy Target95%95% 95% 95% 95% 95%Stabilized Occupied Units4,3164,540 5,064 5,064 5,064 5,110(Under) / Over Supply109118 354 66(222) (465)88%90%92%94%96%98%100%(600)(400)(200)02004006001Q21 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025(Under) / Over Supply(Under) / Over Supply - BarOccupancy - Line21227.00 Macro.xlsx: SD2THE CONCORD GROUP25 The Concord Group II. APARTMENT SUPPLY 26 EXHIBIT II-1AMACRO-MARKET METRICS - INVENTORY AND DELIVERIESSAN DIEGO COUNTY2001 THROUGH FIRST QUARTER 2021YTD - Apr '21ValuesAnnualAnnual Average U/Cin 000s 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-Yr 10-Yr 20-Yr 1Q21 Num. %InvJob GrowthSan Diego County 3.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 0.6% -0.6% -5.0% -0.7% 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% -7.8% 0.0% 1.1% 0.7%Inventory (000s)San Diego County 248 253 255 257 259 261 262 264 264 266 267 268 270 271 275 279 281 284 288 293 297 299Market Area 28 29 29 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 33 34 34 34 34 35 35 36 37% County 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%East Chula Vista 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.5% Market Area 1% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12%Completions (000s)YTDU/CSan Diego County 5.82 2.30 2.84 1.89 2.01 1.50 1.05 1.43 0.62 2.07 0.79 2.18 2.07 1.52 4.13 4.09 1.87 3.29 4.59 5.52 2.87 3.6 3.2 2.4 1.1 10.16 3.4%Market Area 0.69 0.52 0.53 1.39 0.00 0.24 0.18 0.04 0.19 0.41 0.05 0.14 0.92 0.44 0.28 0.57 0.02 0.59 0.53 0.62 0.63 0.48 0.47 0.4 0.00 0.33 0.9%% County 12% 23% 19% 74% 0% 16% 17% 3% 30% 20% 7% 7% 45% 29% 7% 14% 1% 18% 11% 11% 22% 13% 15% 17% 0% 3%East Chula Vista 0.44 0.36 0.15 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.43 0.19 0.54 0.00 0.30 0.31 0.62 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.19 0.00 0.12 2.6%% Market Area 64% 70% 29% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 98% 68% 94% 0% 51% 59% 100% 47% 64% 62% 47% 0% 35%Absorption (000s)San Diego County 4.10 -0.66 0.67 0.90 1.80 2.08 1.83 1.52 -1.01 -0.05 1.18 2.33 2.89 2.20 2.63 4.51 2.11 2.10 3.43 3.56 5.56 3.35 3.13 1.98Market Area 0.42 0.40 0.24 1.15 -0.01 0.30 0.27 0.22 0.02 0.21 0.05 0.13 1.02 0.33 0.26 0.51 0.25 0.45 0.42 0.14 1.28 0.51 0.48 0.38% County 10% -61% 36% 127% -1% 15% 15% 15% -2% -437% 4% 6% 35% 15% 10% 11% 12% 22% 12% 4% 23% 15% 15% 19%East Chula Vista 0.28 0.50 0.14 0.34 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.27 0.21 0.29 0.33 0.27 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.71 0.32 0.27 0.19% Market Area 65% 125% 58% 29% -107% 11% 1% 5% -45% 4% 2% -18% 27% 65% 113% 65% 108% 33% 53% 172% 56% 63% 56% 49%Source: Jobs - BLS; Apartment - CoStar (5+ units, excludes student, senior, corporate, and vacation) Note: "U/C" - under construction-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%02004006008001,0001,2001,4002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Completions (bar) and Job Growth (line)East Chula VistaRem. Market AreaSan Diego County (right axis)21227.00 Macro: ScaleThe Concord Group27 EXHIBIT II-1BMACRO-MARKET METRICS - OCCUPANCY & RENTSSAN DIEGO COUNTY2001 THROUGH FIRST QUARTER 2021ValuesAnnualAnnual Average 1-Yearin 000s 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-Yr 10-Yr 20-Yr 1Q20 1Q21Job GrowthSan Diego County 3.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 0.6% -0.6% -5.0% -0.7% 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2%3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% -7.8% 0.0% 1.1% 0.7%Asking Rent ($)San Diego County 1,085 1,146 1,169 1,182 1,2011,253 1,321 1,367 1,395 1,375 1,365 1,376 1,408 1,457 1,505 1,596 1,672 1,740 1,804 1,856 1,8751,864 1,924Gr/Yr5.6% 2.0% 1.2% 1.6% 4.3% 5.4% 3.5% 2.0% -1.4% -0.7% 0.8% 2.3% 3.5% 3.3% 6.0% 4.8% 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 1.0% 3.3% 3.2% 2.8% Y/Y: 3.2%Market Area914 975 1,012 1,031 1,042 1,098 1,161 1,204 1,244 1,245 1,239 1,242 1,261 1,297 1,340 1,413 1,472 1,538 1,601 1,657 1,7021,671 1,750Gr/Yr6.7% 3.8% 1.9% 1.0% 5.4% 5.7% 3.7% 3.4% 0.1% -0.5% 0.3% 1.5%2.8% 3.4% 5.4% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1% 3.5% 2.7% 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% Y/Y: 4.7%East Chula Vista 1,313 1,390 1,427 1,451 1,461 1,557 1,653 1,725 1,783 1,772 1,766 1,767 1,810 1,877 1,961 2,089 2,162 2,244 2,328 2,389 2,4572,358 2,598Gr/Yr5.8% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 6.6% 6.1% 4.4% 3.4% -0.6% -0.3% 0.1% 2.4% 3.7% 4.5% 6.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2% Y/Y: 10.2%Asking Rent ($/SF)San Diego County 1.30 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.44 1.49 1.58 1.63 1.67 1.64 1.63 1.64 1.68 1.74 1.80 1.91 2.00 2.08 2.16 2.22 2.252.23 2.31Gr/Yr5.4% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 4.0% 5.7% 3.5% 2.0% -1.5% -0.8% 0.8% 2.4% 3.6% 3.3% 6.1% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.1% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% Y/Y: 3.6%Market Area1.06 1.14 1.18 1.20 1.21 1.28 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.45 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.51 1.56 1.65 1.71 1.79 1.87 1.94 1.991.95 2.04Gr/Yr6.8% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% 5.6% 5.5% 3.7% 3.4% 0.0% -0.5% 0.5% 1.6%2.6% 3.5% 5.4% 4.1% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 2.6% 3.8% 3.3% 3.2% Y/Y: 4.6%East Chula Vista 1.25 1.32 1.35 1.38 1.39 1.48 1.57 1.64 1.69 1.68 1.67 1.68 1.72 1.78 1.86 1.98 2.05 2.13 2.21 2.27 2.332.24 2.46Gr/Yr5.6% 2.5% 2.0% 0.7% 6.3% 6.3% 4.3% 3.2% -0.4% -0.4% 0.1% 2.5% 3.6% 4.4% 6.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.9% 2.6% 2.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2% Y/Y: 9.8%OccupancySan Diego County 97% 97% 96% 95% 95% 95% 96% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95% 95% 96% 95% 95% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 94.8% 96.2%Market Area98% 98% 97% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 95.1% 97.1%East Chula Vista 90% 87% 96% 94% 92% 93% 95% 94% 95% 95% 95% 94% 92% 90% 88% 88% 92% 93% 92% 89% 90% 91% 91% 92% 84.2% 92.6%Source: Jobs - BLS; Apartment - CoStar (5+ units, excludes student, senior, corporate, and vacation)2.7%1.7%0.7%6.6%6.1%4.4%3.4%-0.6%-0.3%0.1%2.4%3.7%4.5%6.5%3.5%3.8%3.8%2.6%2.9%10.2%2.0%1.2%1.6%4.3%5.4%3.5%2.0%-1.4%-0.7%0.8%2.3%3.5%3.3%6.0%4.8%4.1%3.7%2.9%1.0%3.2%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21Rent Growth (bar) and Job Growth (line)East Chula VistaMarket AreaSan Diego CountySan Diego County21227.00 Macro: RentThe Concord Group28 EXHIBIT II-2AEXISTING INVENTORY - LOCATIONMARKET AREAMAY 2021Map YearKey Project Name BuiltThe Residences at Escaya2019APulse Millenia2015BTavera2014CEnclave at Otay Ranch 2017DTerra Vista2002EThe Club at Enclave 2020FRosina Vista2012GAlexan Rivue2019HCasaLago Eastlake 2013IUrbana2020JSereno Apartments 2018KDel Oro on Broadway 2017LThe Landing2002MCasoleil2003Source: Appendix AColor = LocationRed = East Chula VistaPurple = Coastal Chula VistaBlue = Otey Mesa21227.00 RecComps: LocThe Concord Group29 EXHIBIT II-2BEXISTING INVENTORY - MARKET METRICSMARKET AREAMAY 2021Units by Rent Range (Base)Bed Under $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300$2,400 $2,500 $2,600 $2,700 $2,800 $2,900 $3,000$3,100$3,200 $3,300 $3,400 $3,500 $3,600 $3,700 TotalCount $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300 $2,400$2,500 $2,600 $2,700 $2,800 $2,900 $3,000 $3,100$3,200$3,300 $3,400 $3,500 $3,600 $3,700 Plus Num. Share1 53290173241135761068811101182200000001,22537%Share 4% 24% 14% 20% 11% 6% 9% 7% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%2 0001924516030322252164261374510003300001,50545%Share 0% 0% 0% 13% 3% 11% 2% 21% 17% 11% 2% 9% 3% 7% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%3 000000059260848638286468831805661018%Share 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 4% 0% 14% 14% 6% 5% 10% 11% 14% 3% 0% 9%Total 53 290 173 433 180 236 136 469 289 174 121 231 105 128 64 101 83 18 0 56 3,340 100%Share 2% 9% 5% 13% 5% 7% 4% 14% 9% 5% 4% 7% 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2%Units by Floor Plan Size RangeBed Under 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,2501,3001,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 TotalCount 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,3001,3501,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 Plus Num. Share122193136461184149022221908008000001,22537%Share2% 16% 11% 38% 15% 12% 0% 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%20000025643962028219510978940000001,50545%Share0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 3% 41% 19% 13% 7% 5% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%30000000000001061431356329107061018%Share0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 23% 22% 10% 0% 15% 0% 11%Total22 193 136 461 184 174 64 61 642 301 195 117 184 237 143 63 2 91 0 70 3,340 100%Share1% 6% 4% 14% 6% 5% 2% 2% 19% 9% 6% 4% 6% 7% 4% 2% 0% 3% 0% 2%Source: Appendix A050100150200250300350400450500Unit Count by Rent Range (Base)3+ Bed2 Bed1 BedStudio21227.00 RecComps: MixThe Concord Group30 EXHIBIT II-2CEXISTING INVENTORY - AMENITIES AND UNIT SPECIFICATIONSMARKET AREAMAY 2021Project: The Residences at EscayaThe Club at Enclave Alexan RivueUrbanaSereno ApartmentsCommunity SummaryYear Built20192020 2019 2020 2018Elevation3s3s 3s 6s 3sUnits272297 253 135 120Average Rent ($)$2,449$2,644 $2,526 $2,645 $2,667Average Rent ($/sf)$2.55$2.52 $2.61 $3.11 $2.53% 0-Beds0%0% 0% 0% 0%% 1-Beds52%40% 57% 70% 36%% 2-Beds41%40% 32% 30% 33%% 3-Beds7%20% 11% 0% 32%Community AmenitiesBusiness Center---Business Center Co-Working StationsCave/Communal Lounge Live/Work SpacesConference Room------ Conference Room --- Conference RoomFitness RoomFitness CemterFitness Cemter Fitness Center Fitness Center Fitness CenterCardio RoomSpinCario Equipment Life Fitness Cardio EquipmentCombinedCombinedWeight RoomFree Weights/TRX StudioFree WeightsLife Fitness Strength EquipmentCombinedCombinedYoga/Stretch RoomYogaGroup Exercise RoomCombinedCombinedCombinedGame RoomChildren's PlaygroundRecreation Room/Clubhouse Shuffleboard/Billards/Pinball/PokerCourtyardClubhouse with Full KitchenClubroom/Game RoomOutdoor LoungeOutdoor BBQ/Picnic AreaClub LoungeClubhouse with Ocean Views---Media/Theater RoomTV LoungeMedia RoomTV WallRoof-Top Sky-Deck/Lounge AreaTV/Video RoomPoolResort Style Pool/Spa/CabanasPool/Spa/Hot TubLuxe Pool/Spa/Fire Pits/Daybeds---Resort Style Pool/SpaOther SpacesWalkable Village with RetailGuest RoomAmazon Package LockersRoof-Top Barbecue Area Storage Rooms Available to RentDog Parks/Pet Grooming/Dog RunGated/Covered ParkingOnsite Pet SpaTenant Payment/Maintenance PortalPackage ServicePicnic Areas/Hiking TrailsPackage RoomGolf Simulator Room Covered/Reserved Off-Street Parking EV Charging StationsDemonstration Kitchen/BBQsOn-Site MaintenanceCommunity Dining AreasDog Wash StationCommunity Fire Pits/BBQsBike Storage/Repair CenterCourtyardKids' Entertainment SuiteAmazon Package LockersBicycle TrackInterior SpecKitchenApplianceStainless SteelStainless SteelGE Stainless SteelFrigidaire Stainless SteelStainless SteelCountersQuartzQuartzQuartzQuartzQuartzFloorWood-like PlankVinyl PlankWood PlankWood Plank VinylWood PlankWasher/DryerIn-UnitIn-UnitGE In-UnitIn-UnitIn-UnitFlooring (Living)Wood-like Plank/CarpetVinyl PlankWood PlankWood Plank VinylWood PlankBalcony/PatioSome UnitsMost UnitsSome UnitsSome UnitsMost UnitsWalk-in ClosetSome UnitsSome UnitsSome UnitsSome UnitsAll UnitsColor = LocationRed = East Chula VistaPurple = Coastal ChulaVistaBlue = Otey MesaGreen = Bonita21227.00 RecComps: AmenThe Concord Group31 EXHIBIT II-2CEXISTING INVENTORY - AMENITIES AND UNIT SPECIFICATIONSMARKET AREAMAY 2021Project: The Residences at EscayaThe Club at Enclave Alexan RivueUrbanaSereno ApartmentsColor = LocationRed = East Chula VistaPurple = Coastal ChulaVistaBlue = Otey MesaGreen = BonitaExteriorPoolGymKitchen (interior)Other21227.00 RecComps: AmenThe Concord Group32 EXHIBIT II-3AFUTURE SUPPLY - LOCATIONMARKET AREAMAY 2021MapMktKey Project NameUnitsABonita Glen161BOtay Ranch - FCN308CMillenia480DC+C Flats43ECasa Estilo142F1350 Industrial Blvd 72GBackhouse Apartments 31HSunbow II240Source: Exhibit II-3BColor = StatusRed = U/CYellow = ApprovedGreen = PendingBlue = ProposedPurple = Conceptual / Stalled21227.00 Macro: LocTHE CONCORD GROUP33 EXHIBIT II-3BFUTURE SUPPLY - DETAILMARKET AREAMAY 2021UnitsProject Name Developer Street Address Submarket City TotalMktStatus NotesBonita GlenSilvergate Development Bonita Glen Dr Coastal Chula Vista Chula Vista 170161U/C Unit Mix: 6 studios, 119 1bed/1bath, 3 1bed+den/1bath, 42 2bed/2bath.Otay Ranch - FCN REMM GroupCenterpark RdEast Chula Vista Chula Vista 308308U/C 308 units of one and two-bed apartments set to deliver in 2022.MilleniaMeridian Development Millenia AveEast Chula Vista Chula Vista 480480U/C Broke ground in August 2020, and is a joint venture among MetLife Investment Management, Allstate Investments and Meridian.C+C FlatsCity of Chula Vista Development Services288 Center StCoastal Chula Vista Chula Vista 4343U/C Studio, one, two and three bedroom apartment homes for rent in Chula Vista set to deliver in 2021.Casa EstiloMountainWest Real Estate 3rd Ave and K St Coastal Chula Vista Chula Vista 142142U/C 5-story building located in downtown Chula Vista currently under construction.1350 Industrial Blvd TBD 1350 Industrial Blvd Otay Mesa Chula Vista 7272ProposedProposal to build a 72 unit apartment complex southern Chula Vista.Backhouse Apartments TBDChurch Ave and Davidson StCoastal Chula Vista Chula Vista 3131ProposedProposal to develop a 31 unit apartment community just north of Downtown Chula Vista.Sunbow IIAyres AdvisorsBrandywine Ave East Chula Vista Chula Vista 240240ConceptualTotal:1,4861,477U/C1,1431,134Approved00Pending00Proposed103103Conceptual240240Stalled00Source: TCGColor = StatusRed = U/CYellow = ApprovedGreen = PendingBlue = ProposedPurple = Conceptual / Stalled21227.00 Macro: PipeTHE CONCORD GROUP34 EXHIBIT II-3CFUTURE SUPPLY - DELIVERY FORECASTMARKET AREAMAY 2021I. Status of Planned Units (Market Rate Only)Market AreaSubmarketEast Chula VistaOtay MesaCoastal Chula VistaTotalU/C78803460001,134Approved0000000Pending0000000Proposed07231000103Conceptual24000000240Stalled0000000Total1,028723770001,477Share of Market Area70%5%26%0%0%0%II. Flow of DeliveriesStart 2-4QTotalStatus:Likelihood 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Num. % DeliveredU/C100% 30%70%0%0%0%100%100%Approved75%0%35% 35% 30%0%100%75%Pending65%0%0% 35% 35% 30%100%65%Proposed50%0%0%0% 50% 50%100%50%Conceptual20%0%0%0%0% 100%100%20%Stalled5%0%0%0%0% 100%100%5%III. Delivery ProjectionTotalProjected DeliveriesSubmarket:Planned 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4.75-Yr Total % of PlanEast Chula Vista1,0282365520048836 81%Otay Mesa72000181836 50%Coastal Chula Vista377104242088362 96%Total1,477340794026741,234 84%Share of 4.75-Yr Total28%64%0%2%6%Source: TCG; Exhibit II-3B21227.00 Macro: FlowTHE CONCORD GROUP35 The Concord Group III. SITE SPECIFIC ANALYSIS 36 EXHIBIT III-1LOCAL SETTINGMARKET AREAMAY 2021Map: Google MapsBusinessParkCal StateSan MarcosLegolandPalomarMedical CtrSan MarcosBeachesLegendRed= ResidentialBlue= Retail / EntertainmentOrange= WorkplaceGreen = RecreationPurple= EducationYellow= TransportationOtay Ranch Town CenterSouthwestern CollegeSan Diego Bay National Wildlife North Island Naval Air Station54 Freeway75 FreewayInterstate 5905 FreewayInterstate 805125 FreewayTijuana River National Estuarine Research Otey Open Space Sweetwater Summit Regional ParkPacific Gateway ParkBrown Field Municipal AirportKaiser Permanente Otay Mesa OfficesSharp Chula Vista Medical CenterEastlake Village MarketplaceWestfield Plaza BonitaChula Vista CenterSpring Valley Swap MeetUS - Mexico Border US - Mexico Border US - Mexico Border 21227.00 Maps: LocalThe Concord Group37 EXHIBIT III-2SURROUNDING LAND USESCHULA VISTAMAY 2021Map: Google MapsPalomarStationPalomarCollegeMissionSports ParkMarcSan MarcosWinCo Foods,In-N-Out,Chick-fil-ACal StateSan MarcosSprout's,Nordstrom RackBradleyParkSan MarcosHigh SchoolKaiser San MarcosMedical OfficesRalph's78 FreewayOn/Off RampBusinessParkLegendRed= ResidentialBlue= Retail / EntertainmentOrange= WorkplaceGreen = RecreationPurple= EducationHeritage Road805 FreewayMain StreetHard Rock RoadEscaya ParkValle Lindo ParkValle Lindo Elementary SchoolBrandywine Apartments (1987; Class B)RiverEdge Terrace (2009; Class B)The Landing Ocean View Hills (2002; Class B)Bella Stitia SFD CommunityCheveron Extra MileExtra Space StorageAatlas Auto RecyclingVIP Auto WreckingRepublic WasteTony's Auto CenterWilliams Aerospace ManufacturingEnterprise Rent-A-CarRTA Auto SalesChula Vista Environmental ServesSiteOne Landscape SupplyMossy Nissan Chula VistaDel Amo MotersportsJump Around NowFord Chula VistaToyota Chula VistaKia Chula VistaNorth Island Credit Union AmphitheatreXtreme AdventuresAquatica San DiegoShellPanda ExpressPet SmartALDIKohl'sMedian Home Price: $591,000Median Year Built: 1976Median Home Price: $695,000Median Year Built: 2001Median Home Price: $770,000Median Year Built: 201821227.00 Maps: SurrThe Concord Group38 EXHIBIT III-3 MARKET FINDINGS THE RESIDENCES AT ESCAYA - CHULA VISTA MAY 2021 Key Conclusions • TCG validates that there is strong, unmet demand for workforce housing based on high levels of occupancy at the rent levels for both market rate and workforce housing per San Diego County household income and rent limits • Depth of demand across market rate and workforce products is well supported in the Market Area (South San Diego County): ◦At 80% AMI, rents are discounted approximately 18% to market rate rents ◦At 100% AMI, rents are generally in line with market rate rents ◦At 120% AMI, rents are at an approximate 24% premium to current market rate rents Project Summary Location:• In San Diego County, home to over 3.4M persons in 1.16M households • In south San Diego County, in inland Chula Vista, in the direct path of residential growth in the County • Situated between the 805 Freeway and the 125 Toll Road, two major County north / south connectors • Near the southern edge of development in south San Diego County, not far from the US / Mexico border ◦Short distance from Sharp Chula Vista and Kaiser Otay Mesa Medical Centers housing a large portion of the workforce as medical professionals ◦Approximately 20-miles south of downtown San Diego for unique entertainment options and workplace Description:• Built 2019, with 272 state-of-the-art apartments situated in the larger Otay Ranch development • Scale and quality of community amenities are on par with other Class A properties in the Market Area • Some units have tuck-under garages Program Unit Mix (1) Market Area Bed/ Unit List Base Rent Max Rents @ AMI Criteria: Floorplan Num. Perc. AMI Survey Bath Size $ $/sf 80% 100% 120% 1-Bed (2P) 141 52% 37% 37% 1 / 1 790 $2,105 $2.66 $1,818 $2,272 $2,726 2-Bed (3-4P) 111 41% 34% 45% 2 / 2 1,068 $2,677 $2.51 $2,181 $2,726 $3,271 3-Bed (5+P) 20 7% 19% 18% 3 / 2 1,569 $3,615 $2.30 $2,520 $3,150 $3,780 Total 272 261,330 $666,169 Average 961 $2,449 $2.55 $2,017 $2,522 $3,026 vs. Current Market -18% 3% 24% Note: (1) Per rent survey Current • Relative mid-market positioning compared to other Class A, institutionally managed communities in the Market Area Positioning: Supply / Demand Market • The Market Area is defined as south San Diego County, comprised all or portions of Chula Vista, Otay Mesa / Ranch, Bonita and National City Definition:• For purposes of data analysis, the Market Area is defined by an aggregation eight zip codes ◦The Market Area is further divided into four micro-markets, differentiated by their relative their proximity to the coast and city name: - Coastal Chula Vista Micro-Market - generally comprised of the portions of Chula Vista near the water and west of the 805 - East Chula Vista Micro-Market - generally comprised of the growth path of Chula Vista and is inland to the east of the 805 freeway - Bonita - generally defined are north of Chula Vista which includes parts of National City and is generally located alongside the 54 Freeway - Otay - the non coastal area south of Chula Vista all the way until the border between U.S. and Mexico Competitive • CoStar counts just under 23,000 market rate apartment units in the Market Area as of the first quarter of 2021, accounting for 7.7% of San Diego Performance:County supply ◦During the 5-year period between 2016 and 2020, the Market Area added an annual average of 480 apartments, capturing 13% of San Diego County deliveries, a pace elevated above its share of in-place inventory ◦During the same five-year period, the East Chula Vista submarket absorbed more than 310 units per year (net), over half (64%) of all development in the Market Area • While Covid-19 negatively impacted many urbanized marketplaces in California, the attractive suburban character of the Market Area translated to a strong performance, with rents and occupancy both rising during the past year (1Q21 vs. 1Q20) ◦Market Area occupancy is measured at 97.1% by CoStar in 1Q21, higher than in 1Q20 (95.1%) ◦During the same period, rents in the Market Area rose 3.8%, increasing from $1,472 to $1,702 • TCG surveyed 14 apartment communities in the Market Area (including the subject project, Escaya), representing comparable institutional apartments primarily built over the last 10-years 21227.00 RecComps: Rec The Concord Group 39 EXHIBIT III-3 MARKET FINDINGS THE RESIDENCES AT ESCAYA - CHULA VISTA MAY 2021 Competitive • The survey set is comprised of primarily suburban, garden-style apartment communities Performance:◦In total, 3,340 apartment units were surveyed, comprising 16% of total institutional inventory (continued)◦The survey set achieves an occupancy of 98% ◦The average base rent (excluding premiums) is $2,555 for a unit averaging 1,024 square feet ("SF") ($2.49 PSF) ◦The survey set mix is comprised of 37% one-, 45% two- and 18% three-bedrooms ◦The survey set has an average age of 8 years (built 2013) Future • A total of only 8 projects are in various stages of planning and development in the Market Area Competition:◦Of the 8 projects, none are 100% affordable projects ◦The projects total 1,477 market rate apartment units • Most of the forecasted supply is currently under construction (1,144 units, or 75% of total supply planned) • Due to a mix of entitlement and financing issues, TCG projects 80-85% of the pipeline to deliver over the 4.75-year forecast period, totaling 1,234 deliveries • 1,028 of the total 1,477 market rate units in planning are in the East Chula Vista micro-market, with 836 (81%) projected to deliver in the next 4.75-years Demos:• The Market Area, and particularly the East Chula Vista micro-market, is comprised of a large share of family renter types ◦68% of renters in East Chula Vista are in household sizes of 3-or-more persons, versus just 45% in the County ◦Nearly 50% of renters in the East Chula Vista micro-market are between the ages of 25 and 44 • Market Area rentership is 42%, slightly above the nation (36%), but below the County average (46%) • 31% of Market Area renters possess incomes ranging from $50,000 to $100,000,while 16% earn between $35,000 and $50,000 Supply /• TCG forecasts an annual demand for +/- 575 new market rate apartment units in the Market Area, capturing 12% of countywide demand Demand • Over the next 4.75-years, TCG forecasts the delivery of just over 1,250 units in the Market Area, a level much less than projected demand during the Projection:same period (2,730 units) • With demand outstripping supply, TCG projects Market Area occupancy to improve over the forecast period, maintaining an occupancy in excess of 95% during the entire forecast period 21227.00 RecComps: Rec The Concord Group 40 EXHIBIT III-4ARENT POSITIONING - CHUNK RENTSMARKET AREAMAY 2021All rents listed are BASE RENTS - ie. an average of the lowest listed rent per floorplan availableProject Averages (Size and List Rent [excludes concessions])Unit Mix Overall One-Bedrooms Two-Bedrooms Three-BedroomsMap Year (by Bed Count) Base Rent Base Rent Base Rent Base RentKeyProject Name Elev.UnitsBuiltOcc.0123Size$ $/sfSize$$/sfSize$$/sfSize$$/sf31-Bed SortIUrbana 6s 135 2020 87% 0% 70% 30% 0% 849 $2,645 $3.11 820$2,544$3.10 923 $2,893 $3.13 --- --- ---HCasaLago Eastlake 2s 427 2013 100% 0% 19% 43% 39% 1,153 $3,116 $2.70 808$2,524$3.12 1,161 $3,112 $2.68 1,311 $3,412 $2.60JSereno Apartments 3s 120 2018 98% 0% 36% 33% 32% 1,056 $2,667 $2.53 980$2,481$2.53 972 $2,592 $2.67 1,227 $2,956 $2.41APulse Millenia 3s 273 2015 98% 0% 55% 39% 7% 970 $2,691 $2.78 827$2,353$2.84 1,102 $3,034 $2.75 1,371 $3,470 $2.53KDel Oro on Broadway 3s 82 2017 98% 0% 50% 50% 0% 876 $2,498 $2.85 701$2,235$3.19 1,051 $2,761 $2.63 --- --- ---EThe Club at Enclave 3s 297 2020 96% 0% 40% 40% 20% 1,051 $2,644 $2.52 811$2,229$2.75 1,088 $2,669 $2.45 1,466 $3,445 $2.35GAlexan Rivue 3s 253 2019 99% 0% 57% 32% 11% 967 $2,526 $2.61 763$2,119$2.78 1,075 $2,816 $2.62 1,692 $3,760 $2.22The Residences at Escaya 3s 272 2019 98% 0% 52% 41% 7% 961 $2,449 $2.55 790 $2,105 $2.66 1,068 $2,677 $2.51 1,569 $3,615 $2.30CEnclave at Otay Ranch 3s 301 2017 99% 0% 43% 43% 14% 970 $2,425 $2.50 730$2,058$2.82 1,097 $2,576 $2.35 1,327 $3,097 $2.33BTavera 3s 187 2014 99% 0% 11% 51% 39% 1,249 $2,683 $2.15 732$2,020$2.76 1,215 $2,578 $2.12 1,436 $3,004 $2.09MCasoleil 3s 346 2003 99% 0% 39% 44% 17% 985 $2,222 $2.26 764$1,918$2.51 1,057 $2,346 $2.22 1,295 $2,580 $1.99DTerra Vista 3s 153 2002 100% 0% 39% 44% 17% 1,049 $2,237 $2.13 815$1,910$2.34 1,137 $2,347 $2.06 1,356 $2,693 $1.99FRosina Vista 3s 278 2012 99% 0% 16% 54% 30% 1,050 $2,524 $2.40 670$1,905$2.84 1,036 $2,555 $2.47 1,278 $2,800 $2.19LThe Landing 2s 216 2002 98% 0% 11% 89% 0% 991 $2,098 $2.12 681$1,725$2.53 1,030 $2,145 $2.08 --- --- ---Total/Average: 3,340 2013 98% 0% 37% 45% 18% 1,024 $2,555 $2.49 785 $2,176 $2.77 1,082 $2,624 $2.42 1,360 $3,146 $2.312-Bed SortHCasaLago Eastlake 2s 427 2013 100% 0% 19% 43% 39% 1,153 $3,116 $2.70 808 $2,524 $3.12 1,161$3,112$2.68 1,311 $3,412 $2.60APulse Millenia 3s 273 2015 98% 0% 55% 39% 7% 970 $2,691 $2.78 827 $2,353 $2.84 1,102$3,034$2.75 1,371 $3,470 $2.53IUrbana 6s 135 2020 87% 0% 70% 30% 0% 849 $2,645 $3.11 820 $2,544 $3.10 923$2,893$3.13 --- --- ---GAlexan Rivue 3s 253 2019 99% 0% 57% 32% 11% 967 $2,526 $2.61 763 $2,119 $2.78 1,075$2,816$2.62 1,692 $3,760 $2.22KDel Oro on Broadway 3s 82 2017 98% 0% 50% 50% 0% 876 $2,498 $2.85 701 $2,235 $3.19 1,051$2,761$2.63 --- --- ---The Residences at Escaya 3s 272 2019 98% 0% 52% 41% 7% 961 $2,449 $2.55 790 $2,105 $2.66 1,068 $2,677 $2.51 1,569 $3,615 $2.30EThe Club at Enclave 3s 297 2020 96% 0% 40% 40% 20% 1,051 $2,644 $2.52 811 $2,229 $2.75 1,088$2,669$2.45 1,466 $3,445 $2.35JSereno Apartments 3s 120 2018 98% 0% 36% 33% 32% 1,056 $2,667 $2.53 980 $2,481 $2.53 972$2,592$2.67 1,227 $2,956 $2.41BTavera 3s 187 2014 99% 0% 11% 51% 39% 1,249 $2,683 $2.15 732 $2,020 $2.76 1,215$2,578$2.12 1,436 $3,004 $2.09CEnclave at Otay Ranch3s 301 2017 99% 0% 43% 43% 14% 970 $2,425 $2.50 730 $2,058 $2.82 1,097$2,576$2.35 1,327 $3,097 $2.33FRosina Vista3s 278 2012 99% 0% 16% 54% 30% 1,050 $2,524 $2.40 670 $1,905 $2.84 1,036$2,555$2.47 1,278 $2,800 $2.19DTerra Vista3s 153 2002 100% 0% 39% 44% 17% 1,049 $2,237 $2.13 815 $1,910 $2.34 1,137$2,347$2.06 1,356 $2,693 $1.99MCasoleil3s 346 2003 99% 0% 39% 44% 17% 985 $2,222 $2.26 764 $1,918 $2.51 1,057$2,346$2.22 1,295 $2,580 $1.99LThe Landing2s 216 2002 98% 0% 11% 89% 0% 991 $2,098 $2.12 681 $1,725 $2.53 1,030$2,145$2.08 --- --- ---Color = LocationRed = East Chula VistaPurple = Coastal Chula VistaBlue = Otay Mesa21227.00 RecComps: ChunkThe Concord Group41 EXHIBIT III-4ARENT POSITIONING - CHUNK RENTSMARKET AREAMAY 2021All rents listed are BASE RENTS - ie. an average of the lowest listed rent per floorplan availableProject Averages (Size and List Rent [excludes concessions])Unit Mix Overall One-Bedrooms Two-Bedrooms Three-BedroomsMap Year (by Bed Count) Base Rent Base Rent Base Rent Base RentKeyProject Name Elev.UnitsBuiltOcc.0123Size$ $/sfSize$$/sfSize$$/sfSize$$/sf3Color = LocationRed = East Chula VistaPurple = Coastal Chula VistaBlue = Otay Mesa3-Bed SortGAlexan Rivue 3s 253 2019 99% 0% 57% 32% 11% 967 $2,526 $2.61 763 $2,119 $2.78 1,075 $2,816 $2.62 1,692$3,760$2.22The Residences at Escaya 3s 272 2019 98% 0% 52% 41% 7% 961 $2,449 $2.55 790 $2,105 $2.66 1,068 $2,677 $2.51 1,569 $3,615 $2.30APulse Millenia 3s 273 2015 98% 0% 55% 39% 7% 970 $2,691 $2.78 827 $2,353 $2.84 1,102 $3,034 $2.75 1,371$3,470$2.53EThe Club at Enclave 3s 297 2020 96% 0% 40% 40% 20% 1,051 $2,644 $2.52 811 $2,229 $2.75 1,088 $2,669 $2.45 1,466$3,445$2.35HCasaLago Eastlake 2s 427 2013 100% 0% 19% 43% 39% 1,153 $3,116 $2.70 808 $2,524 $3.12 1,161 $3,112 $2.68 1,311$3,412$2.60CEnclave at Otay Ranch 3s 301 2017 99% 0% 43% 43% 14% 970 $2,425 $2.50 730 $2,058 $2.82 1,097 $2,576 $2.35 1,327$3,097$2.33BTavera 3s 187 2014 99% 0% 11% 51% 39% 1,249 $2,683 $2.15 732 $2,020 $2.76 1,215 $2,578 $2.12 1,436$3,004$2.09JSereno Apartments 3s 120 2018 98% 0% 36% 33% 32% 1,056 $2,667 $2.53 980 $2,481 $2.53 972 $2,592 $2.67 1,227$2,956$2.41FRosina Vista 3s 278 2012 99% 0% 16% 54% 30% 1,050 $2,524 $2.40 670 $1,905 $2.84 1,036 $2,555 $2.47 1,278$2,800$2.19DTerra Vista 3s 153 2002 100% 0% 39% 44% 17% 1,049 $2,237 $2.13 815 $1,910 $2.34 1,137 $2,347 $2.06 1,356$2,693$1.99MCasoleil 3s 346 2003 99% 0% 39% 44% 17% 985 $2,222 $2.26 764 $1,918 $2.51 1,057 $2,346 $2.22 1,295$2,580$1.99Source: Appendix A in the market study21227.00 RecComps: ChunkThe Concord Group42 EXHIBIT III-4BRENT POSITIONING - RENT TO SIZE GRAPHMARKET AREAMAY 2021Source: Appendix A$1,700$1,800$1,900$2,000$2,100$2,200$2,300$2,400$2,500$2,600$2,700$2,800$2,900$3,000$3,100$3,200$3,300$3,400$3,500$3,600$3,700$3,800$3,900600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700The Residences at Escaya (2019)Pulse Millenia (2015)Tavera (2014)Enclave at Otay Ranch (2017)Terra Vista (2002)The Club at Enclave (2020)Rosina Vista (2012)Alexan Rivue (2019)CasaLago Eastlake (2013)Urbana (2020)Sereno Apartments (2018)Del Oro on Broadway (2017)The Landing (2002)Casoleil (2003)Color = LocationRed = East Chula VistaPurple = Costal Chula VistaBlue = Otay MesaIcon = VintageSolid = Built 2015+Hollow/Stick = Built Pre-2015East Chula VistaOtay MesaCoastal Chula Vista21227.00 RecComps: RSThe Concord Group43 The Concord Group APPENDICES 44 APPENDIX ASURVEYMARKET AREAMAY 2021Project Name/ Occ./ FloorplanManager/Product/ Year Units Bed/ Flat/ Unit Base RentAddressUnitsElev. Built Name Mix Vac. Bath TH Size $ $/sf ConcessionEast Chula VistaThe Residences at Escaya272Garden98% Residence 2 35 13% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 747 $2,065 $2.76 N/AGreystar3s 2019 Residence 3 62 23% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 769 $2,023 $2.631925 Avendia Escaya Residence 1 34 13% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 789 $2,212 $2.80Chula Vista Residence 4 10 4% 0 1 / 2.0 Flat 1,080 $2,384 $2.2191913 Residence 6 42 15% 1 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,038 $2,626 $2.53Residence 5 25 9% 2 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,049 $2,722 $2.59Residence 7 36 13% 1 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,096 $2,691 $2.46Residence 8 8 3% 1 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,152 $2,737 $2.38Residence 9 18 7% 0 3 / 4.0 Flat 1,560 $3,595 $2.30Residence 10 2 1% 0 3 / 4.0 Flat 1,654 $3,798 $2.30Pulse Millenia273Garden98% A1 1% 1 1 / 1.0 Flat 718 $2,230 $3.11 N/AFairfield3s 2015 A1A 1% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 723 $2,080 $2.882043 Artisan Way A2 21% 1 1 / 1.0 Flat 789 $2,265 $2.87Chula Vista A3 32% 3 1 / 1.0 Flat 860 $2,425 $2.8291915 B1 11% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,041 $3,065 $2.94B2 8% 1 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,107 $3,175 $2.87B2A 1% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,128 $3,068 $2.72B3 19% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,131 $2,960 $2.62C1 7% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,371 $3,470 $2.53Tavera187Garden99% 40a 11% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 732 $2,020 $2.76 N/AR&V Management3s 2014 40b 8% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,051 $2,450 $2.331510 Santa Diana Rd 40c1 21% 1 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,233 $2,565 $2.08Chula Vista 40c2 21% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,259 $2,640 $2.1091913 40d 16% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,343 $2,971 $2.218% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,356 $3,023 $2.23TH + Den 5% 0 3 / 2.5 TH 1,600 $3,113 $1.95TH 10% 0 3 / 3.5 TH 1,551 $2,984 $1.9221227.00 RecComps: CompsPage 1 of 4The Concord Group45 APPENDIX ASURVEYMARKET AREAMAY 2021Project Name/ Occ./ FloorplanManager/Product/ Year Units Bed/ Flat/ Unit Base RentAddressUnitsElev. Built Name Mix Vac. Bath TH Size $ $/sf ConcessionEnclave at Otay Ranch301Garden99% A1 23% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 676 $1,995 $2.95 N/ABaldwin Asset Management3s 2017 A2 15% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 748 $2,030 $2.711629 Santa Venetia St A3 6% 3 1 / 1.0 Flat 889 $2,365 $2.66Chula Vista B1 22% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,037 $2,558 $2.4791913 B3 21% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,159 $2,595 $2.24C2 8% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,317 $3,095 $2.35C1 6% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,340 $3,100 $2.31Terra Vista153Garden100% Avalon 11% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 709 $1,802 $2.54 N/AR&V Management3s 2002 Balboa 29% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 854 $1,950 $2.281441 Santa Lucia Rd Coronado 34% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,098 $2,325 $2.12Chula Vista Del Mar 10% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,274 $2,425 $1.9091913 El Dorado 17% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,356 $2,693 $1.99The Club at Enclave297Garden96% A1 30% 3 1 / 1.0 Flat 764 $2,140 $2.80 1 Month FreeBaldwin & Sons LLC3s 2020 A2 3% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 839 $2,618 $3.121629 Santa Venetia St A3 7% 1 1 / 1.0 Flat 1,008 $2,430 $2.41Chula Vista B2 26% 3 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,083 $2,655 $2.4591913 B1 14% 3 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,098 $2,695 $2.45C1 20% 1 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,466 $3,445 $2.35Rosina Vista278Garden99% A 16% 3 1 / 1.0 Flat 670 $1,905 $2.84 N/AR&V Management3s 2012 B 22% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 929 $2,500 $2.691551 Summerland St C 19% 1 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,033 $2,520 $2.44Chula Vista D 13% 0 2 / 2.5 Flat 1,218 $2,700 $2.2291913 E 30% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,278 $2,800 $2.1921227.00 RecComps: Comps Page 2 of 4The Concord Group46 APPENDIX ASURVEYMARKET AREAMAY 2021Project Name/ Occ./ FloorplanManager/Product/ Year Units Bed/ Flat/ Unit Base RentAddressUnitsElev. Built Name Mix Vac. Bath TH Size $ $/sf ConcessionAlexan Rivue253Garden99% 4% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 638 $2,086 $3.27 N/AAlliance3s 2019 0% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 736 $2,283 $3.101902 Millenia Ave A3 53% 3 1 / 1.0 Flat 771 $2,116 $2.74Chula Vista0% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 890 $2,632 $2.969191526% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,049 $2,785 $2.652% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,128 $3,010 $2.671% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,205 $3,034 $2.522% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,266 $2,893 $2.292% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,364 $3,478 $2.551% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,409 $3,495 $2.482% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,669 $3,702 $2.226% 0 3 / 2.5 Flat 1,839 $3,901 $2.12CasaLago Eastlake427Garden100% P1 19% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 808 $2,524 $3.12 N/AAvenue52s 2013 T1 8% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,119 $2,937 $2.622816 Cielo Circulo P2 19% 0 2 / 2.5 Flat 1,135 $3,151 $2.78Chula Vista L1 9% 0 2 / 2.5 Flat 1,167 $2,946 $2.5291915 T2 8% 0 2 / 2.5 Flat 1,258 $3,386 $2.69T3 8% 0 3 / 2.5 Flat 1,482 $3,879 $2.62L2 16% 0 3 / 3.0 Flat 1,230 $3,304 $2.69L3 15% 0 3 / 3.0 Flat 1,310 $3,286 $2.51Coastal Chula VistaUrbana135Podium87%$1500 Cash Back on 2 BMountainWest6s 2020 30% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 762 $2,286 $3.00393 H St15% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 767 $2,301 $3.00Chula Vista8% 1 1 / 1.5 Flat 772 $2,818 $3.659191016% 1 1 / 1.5 Flat 978 $3,081 $3.152% 0 1 / 1.5 Flat 1,016 $2,705 $2.6615% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 880 $2,818 $3.204% 2 2 / 2.0 Flat 881 $2,951 $3.352% 2 2 / 2.0 Flat 919 $2,987 $3.252% 7 2 / 2.0 Flat 927 $2,781 $3.004% 5 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,015 $2,947 $2.904% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,027 $3,081 $3.0021227.00 RecComps: Comps Page 3 of 4The Concord Group47 APPENDIX ASURVEYMARKET AREAMAY 2021Project Name/ Occ./ FloorplanManager/Product/ Year Units Bed/ Flat/ Unit Base RentAddressUnitsElev. Built Name Mix Vac. Bath TH Size $ $/sf ConcessionSereno Apartments120Garden98% 1x1 15% 2 1 / 1.0 Flat 690 $2,125 $3.08 N/AAMC3s 2018 1x2 8% 0 1 / 2.0 Flat 1,074 $2,510 $2.34910-948 3rd Ave 1x2 7% 0 1 / 2.0 Flat 1,193 $2,750 $2.31Chula Vista 1x2 L 7% 0 1 / 2.0 Flat 1,312 $2,975 $2.2791911 2x2 33% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 972 $2,592 $2.673x2 21% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,227 $2,959 $2.413x2 11% 1 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,228 $2,950 $2.40Del Oro on Broadway82Podium98% 16% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 585 $1,895 $3.24 $1500 Off at Move-InBroadway LLC3s 2017 17% 1 1 / 1.0 Flat 725 $2,395 $3.30986 Broadway17% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 785 $2,395 $3.05Chula Vista16% 1 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,020 $2,795 $2.749191117% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,045 $2,795 $2.6717% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,085 $2,695 $2.48Otay MesaThe Landing216Garden98% 1x1 11% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 681 $1,725 $2.53 N/AR&V Management2s 2002 2x2 B 89% 4 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,030 $2,145 $2.08455 Dennery RdSan Diego92154Casoleil346Garden99% A Barlett 11% 1 1 / 1.0 Flat 656 $1,900 $2.90 N/AR&V Management3s 2003 B Francisco 28% 0 1 / 1.0 Flat 809 $1,925 $2.381100 Dennery Rd C Mannheim 31% 2 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,040 $2,375 $2.28San Diego D Brandriff 13% 0 2 / 2.0 Flat 1,098 $2,275 $2.0792154 E Lauritz 17% 0 3 / 2.0 Flat 1,295 $2,580 $1.99Source: The Concord Group21227.00 RecComps: Comps Page 4 of 4The Concord Group48 APPENDIX B1DEMAND MODEL - DEMOGRAPHICS BASEDSAN DIEGO COUNTY2020Percent2020 Households2020-2025 Annual GrowthIncome Income to Affordable(2) %(4) T/O % Obs. (2) % New NewRangeRent (1) Rent Households Rent (3) Renters T/O Dem. Obs. Demand HHs Rent (3) Renters DemandSan Diego CountyUnder $35,000 40% Under $1,200 235,984 68% 159,943 65% 103,963 0.5% 520 (4,445) 73% 0520$35,000 -$50,000 35% $1,200 -$1,500 118,583 61% 72,604 65% 47,192 0.5% 236 (1,480) 66% 0236$50,000 -$75,000 28% $1,500 -$1,800 182,960 55% 101,495 65% 65,972 0.5% 330 (760) 60% 0330$75,000 -$100,000 25% $1,800 -$2,100 146,250 47% 68,548 65% 44,556 0.5% 223 664 52% 345567$100,000 -$150,000 20% $2,100 -$2,500 215,435 36% 77,125 65% 50,132 0.5% 251 3,311 41% 1,3511,602$150,000 -$200,000 18% $2,500 -$3,000 122,472 21% 25,340 65% 16,471 0.5% 82 3,969 26% 1,0201,102$200,000 and Over 20% $3,000+138,332 21% 28,621 65% 18,604 0.5% 93 5,624 26% 1,4451,538Total1,160,016 46% 533,677 65% 346,8901,734 6,884 60% 4,160 5,894Buildable Demand 622,489 32% 199,635129,763649 13,569 31% 4,160 4,809Market AreaUnder $35,000 40% Under $1,200 25,408 66% 16,649 65% 10,822 0.5% 54 (440) 71% 054$35,000 -$50,000 35% $1,200 -$1,500 13,220 61% 8,017 65% 5,211 0.5% 26 (155) 66% 026$50,000 -$75,000 28% $1,500 -$1,800 19,000 48% 9,199 65% 5,979 0.5% 30 (128) 53% 030$75,000 -$100,000 25% $1,800 -$2,100 16,676 38% 6,374 65% 4,143 0.5% 21 14 43% 627$100,000 -$150,000 20% $2,100 -$2,500 23,518 25% 5,821 65% 3,784 0.5% 19 277 30% 82101$150,000 -$200,000 18% $2,500 -$3,000 11,948 17% 2,020 65% 1,313 0.5% 7 445 22% 97104$200,000 and Over 20% $3,000+8,310 17% 1,405 65% 913 0.5% 5 577 22% 126131Total118,080 42% 49,486 65% 32,166161 588 53% 312 473Buildable Demand 60,452 26% 15,62110,15451 1,312 24% 312 363Capture of San Diego C 9.7%7.8%7.8%9.7%7.5% 7.5%East Chula VistaUnder $35,000 40% Under $1,2002,850 45% 1,276 65% 829 0.5% 4 (23) 50% 04$35,000 -$50,000 35% $1,200 -$1,5001,428 56% 795 65% 517 0.5% 3 (32) 61% 03$50,000 -$75,000 28% $1,500 -$1,8002,928 43% 1,267 65% 824 0.5% 4 (63) 48% 04$75,000 -$100,000 25% $1,800 -$2,1003,525 29% 1,039 65% 675 0.5% 3 (51) 34% 03$100,000 -$150,000 20% $2,100 -$2,5007,427 22% 1,598 65% 1,039 0.5% 5 13 27% 39$150,000 -$200,000 18% $2,500 -$3,0004,080 17% 708 65% 460 0.5% 2 133 22% 3032$200,000 and Over 20% $3,000+2,833 17% 491 65% 319 0.5% 2 272 22% 6162Total25,071 29% 7,174 65% 4,66323 248 38% 94 117Buildable Demand 17,865 21% 3,8362,49312 366 26% 94 106Capture of Market Area 30%25%25%28%30% 29%(1) TCG estimate, varies by income based on input from American Community FactFinder (US Census, 2019 5-Year Estimates)(2) ESRI estimate - see Exhibit I-7A(3) American Community FactFinder (variable B25118), Exhibit I-7B; assumes new households entering market have a higher rentership rate (5 percentage points higher)(4) TCG estimate21227.00 Macro: Dem-D The Concord Group49 APPENDIX B2DEMAND MODEL - EMPLOYMENT BASEDSAN DIEGO COUNTY2020ForecastAnnual5-YrValues in 000s 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200320042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Avg.Employment Driver#Job Growth48 52 45 40 25 12 11 22 23 21 9 (8) (66) (8) 10 33 33 29 40 38 30 30 21 (118) 23 57 26 16 9 26#Cumulative ('00+)40 65 77 88 110 133 154 162 154 89 80 90 123 156 184 225 262 292 322 343 225Apartment Deliveries / Inventory Growth#Apartment Deliveries5.8 2.3 2.8 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.4 0.6 2.1 0.8 2.2 2.1 1.5 4.1 4.1 1.9 3.3 4.6 5.5 2.9#Jobs / Apartment Deliveries7 11 4 6 11 15 20 6 (12) (32) (11) 4 16 22 7 10 20 9 7 4 (41)(Row 1 divided by Row 3)#Cumulative Deliveries ('00+)6 811131516171919 22 22 2427 283236 3841 465254#Jobs/MF Delivery6.8 7.9 7.0 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.8 8.6 7.9 4.1 3.6 3.7 4.6 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.0 7.06.64.1(Row 2 divided by Row 5)Scenario 1 - Employment Based Demand - Jobs/MF DeliveryProjection (5 Jobs per Multi-Family Delivery)4.5 11.3 5.2 3.3 1.9 5.3Market Area Capture12%12% 12% 12% 12%Market Area Demand0.5 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6East Chula Vista Capture25%25% 25% 25% 25%East Chula Vista Demand0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2Scenario 2 - Employment Based Demand - Jobs to Housing RatioJobs per Housing Unit1.41.4 1.4 1.4 1.4Housing Units Demanded16.1 40.5 18.7 11.7 6.718.8% Renter46%46% 46% 46% 46%San Diego County Apartment Demand7.4 18.6 8.6 5.4 3.18.6% Income Qualify (Exhibit III-6A)82%82% 82% 82% 82%San Diego County Income Qual Demand6.1 15.2 7.0 4.4 2.5 7.0Market Area Capture12% 12% 12% 12% 12%Market Area Demand0.7 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8East Chula Vista Capture25% 25% 25% 25% 25%East Chula Vista Demand0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2Source: CoStar; Moody's-40,000040,00080,000120,000160,000200,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,0002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2021 2023 2025Cumulative Values - 2000+Job Growth - Cumulative (bar)Apartment Deliveries (Historical)Demand - Scenario 1Demand - Scenario 221227.00 Macro: DemEThe Concord Group50