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HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 3 - Attachment 3 - General Plan Amendment, Justification Report, PFFP, FIA, ILA Binder676 Moss Street – Proposed General Plan Amendments 676 Moss Street – Proposed General Plan Amendments A. JUSTIFICATION REPORT B. GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT CONTENT C. PUBLIC FACILITIES FINANCE PLAN D. FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS E. INDUSTRIAL LANDS ANALYSIS 676 Moss Street – Proposed General Plan Amendments Prepared for: SLF – Moss Street, LLC Contact: James O’Malley 949-417-1396 JOMalley@shopoff.com Preparer: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 858.614.5000 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dan Wery, AICP, LEED AP JN 167467 Prepared for: SLF – Moss Street, LLC Contact: James O’Malley 949-417-1396 JOMalley@shopoff.com Preparer: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 858.614.5000 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dan Wery, AICP, LEED AP JN 167467 11/29/2018 Revised 4/29/2019 Revised 04/14/2020 Revised 05/22/2020 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page i INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 EXISTING SITE CONDITIONS ................................................................................................... 1 PROPOSED AMENDMENTS .................................................................................................... 2 LAND USE CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................................................. 3 ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................................................... 4 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS ..................................................................................... 4 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERATIONS .......................................................................... 5 INFRASTRUCTURE CONSIDERATIONS ..................................................................................... 5 PUBLIC BENEFIT CONSIDERATIONS ........................................................................................ 6 GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ................................................................................................ 7 Housing Element ......................................................................................................................... 7 Land Use and Transportation Element ....................................................................................... 7 Environment ................................................................................................................................ 8 Economic Development .............................................................................................................. 8 Growth Management .................................................................................................................. 9 Public Facilities ............................................................................................................................ 9 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................... 10 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 1 SLF – Moss Street, LLC, proposes an amendment to the City of Chula Vista’s General Plan (General Plan) to re-designate a 7-acre site from Limited Industrial (IL) to High Residential (RH) and concurrently rezone from ILP to R-3 to allow a new 141-unit townhome condominium development. The project site is located at 676 Moss Street (site) within the Harborside neighborhood of the City of Chula Vista (City). The site lies within the Southwest Planning Area and Montgomery Subarea, as defined in the General Plan (Section 8.2). The project will bring in-demand, high-density housing to southwest Chula Vista. The project is more compatible with, complements, and strengthens the neighboring residential developments by removing a noxious industrial use from an otherwise residential street. Additionally, the Residential High General Plan designation is compatible with the existing Limited Industrial designations to the north and west, as well as any potential redevelopment on the neighboring site. The project represents best land use planning practices by creating an alignment of uses on both sides of Moss Street between Colorado and Industrial. The proximity to other high-density housing, regional transit options, commercial businesses, and public facilities creates the opportunity to develop a pedestrian-friendly, transit-accessible housing project that aligns with the goals and policies of the General Plan. The property has been historically used for industrial purposes, specifically, industrial repair, fabrication, and salvage. It is currently occupied by five businesses with an estimated 30 to 40 employees. The site is currently subject to a Limited Industrial Precise Plan. The precise plan would no longer apply to the site after the General Plan Amendment and zone change. The site is near the corner of Moss Street and Industrial Boulevard in the City of Chula Vista with an area of approximately 6.9 acres. County Assessor’s Parcel Numbers (APNs) 618-010-26, -31, and -32 will be affected by the amendment and rezone. Currently, the site is used by multiple industrial businesses for fabrication, repair, and salvage work. There are four permanent structures currently on the site: three warehouses and one metal canopy. These structures were constructed during the 1960s; no significant investment has occurred on the site for decades. The site is approximately 650 feet east of Interstate 5 (I-5) and directly north of a single-family home neighborhood, designated as low density (RLM) in the General Plan. It is bordered by industrial facilities to the north and southwest, designated as IL in the General Plan. A mobile home park, designated as medium density (RM) in the General Plan, is about 550 feet to the southwest, across Industrial Boulevard. Directly west is one small industrial building and rail tracks, designated as IL and Open Space (OS), respectively, in the General Plan. Farther north is a large residential block, consisting of high density (RH), RLM, and RM properties. Directly to the east are high-density residential apartments and a lightly used 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 2 parking facility for the Sweetwater Union High School District. Farther east is a mixed-use commercial corridor (MUR), part of the South Broadway Corridor District. Direct access to the site is currently provided on the north side of Moss Street. Regional access is provided by I-5 via the Industrial Boulevard exit to the west and Interstate 805 via the L Street exit to the east. Public transit access is provided by the Palomar Street trolley station approximately 0.65 miles to the south and H Street station approximately 1.3 miles to the north. A bus stop on Broadway and Moss (0.3 miles from the site) is served by MTS 932, which provides north-south service and connections to different trolley stations. Current pedestrian access to the site is limited, as there is no sidewalk along the frontage. The Chula Vista Pedestrian Master Plan (CVPMP) specifically calls for the construction of sidewalk along Moss Street in front of the site (CVPMP, p. 159). The site contains a double-barrel 10-foot by 12-foot box culvert which bisects the site (Telegraph Canyon). The site also contains a short rail spur easement which will be relinquished prior to construction. The site is entirely developed and consists of almost completely disturbed land cover. Existing vegetation is limited to a few small trees along the eastern edge and some minor scrub vegetation along the rail spur. There are no natural watercourses or other features on the site. The project proposes an amendment to the General Plan to change the land use designation of the project site from Limited Industrial (IL) to High Density Residential (RH). The project also proposes to rezone the site from Limited Industrial Precise Plan (ILP) to High Density Residential (R-3). The new land use would be limited exclusively to a multi-family condominium complex. Eighteen townhouse and courtyard-style buildings with 141 residential units would be constructed, achieving a density of approximately 20 dwelling units per acre (du/ac). The desired development schedule is: The following applications associated with the project are being filed concurrently with the General Plan Amendment application. ▪ Rezone Application (ILP to R-3) ▪ Design Review ▪ Tentative Map ▪ Variance – for a front yard setback on Moss Street ▪ Preliminary Environmental Review 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 3 Changes to the General Plan land use designation are proposed to allow the development of a multi-family community. The proposed development will provide much-needed for-sale, high-density housing for individuals and families in southwest Chula Vista, a market that is currently underserved. The project will improve the pedestrian streetscape in front of the site on Moss Street, resulting in a friendlier, more walkable neighborhood. The site is near other multi-family housing developments, commercial businesses, and two trolley stops. The project will complement the adjacent apartment complex and single-family neighborhood and complete a logical continuum of residential land uses while preserving industrial uses west of Colorado Avenue, as specifically called for in the General Plan. In addition, the project will provide a logical land use transition and buffer from the low/medium-density single-family residential south of Moss Street to the limited industrial north of the project site. The project does not result in any isolated residential uses and creates a continuous high-density residential neighborhood on Moss Street between Broadway and Colorado Avenue. Given the site’s subregional location, the land use conversion is logical and consistent with the Southwest Area Plan in the General Plan. The adjacent industrial land will remain continuous along Industrial Boulevard west of Colorado Avenue, and no illogical or isolated uses are proposed. No other industrial lands are proposed to be converted or changed as a part of the project. In addition to improving neighborhood character and existing land use compatibilities, the proposed high- density housing is compatible with any potential future uses on adjacent properties as well as a new trolley station at L Street and Industrial Boulevard. The project would complement and be supportive of transit- focused mixed-use, urban core residential, and commercial visitor redevelopment along L Street. Furthermore, the project would act as an ideal transition from single-family homes to any potential high- intensity development along L Street. The site is designed to not preclude future redevelopment. The proposed density of this project is 20.1 du/ac, consistent with the 3 to 28 du/ac of the surrounding residential developments. This meets SANDAG and MTS minimum density metrics needed to support a trolley station. The project will increase the density of the area by 20 du/ac, as there are currently no residential units on the site. No other areas will require amendments or zone changes to accommodate the project. The project neither induces nor discourages redevelopment or conversion of adjacent industrial lands. Regardless of whether long-term redevelopment occurs along L Street, the townhome condominiums represent the highest and best use for the site through their high compatibility and by acting as a good neighbor to all surrounding properties. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 4 The project will provide much-needed high-density housing for a variety of family sizes. These new residents will provide a labor base for growing businesses in the City. Property value and public services costs will increase significantly with the proposed development. The project is anticipated to generate approximately $311,000 in net revenue over a 20-year timeframe, replacing a use that currently creates a net deficit of approximately $29,000 over the same time period1. Additionally, the development will pay over $1.35 million in park fees that would not otherwise be contributed. The project will result in the loss of 7 acres of industrial land and fewer than 30 jobs from the existing operations at the property.2 Investigations into nearby industrial vacancies show there is available industrially zoned space that may absorb the uses on-site. The existing operations and jobs may not necessarily be lost as they can be relocated to other sites nearby in Chula Vista. The jobs-housing balance will be minimally affected by the proposed condominiums. The project may result in a loss of 0.05 percent of jobs in the City. The project would result in a 0.16 percent increase in housing units, resulting in a 0.2 percent shift in the jobs-housing balance, assuming the jobs do not relocate to other facilities within the City.3 The site is fully disturbed and is an active industrial use. It contains few, if any, biological resources as it is almost completely disturbed. There are no known natural watercourses or visual corridors located on- site. The value of neighboring properties will benefit from the replacement of industrial equipment and outdoor operations with context-sensitive modern architecture and more compatible land uses. Hazardous materials may have been stored on-site by past operators. Phase 1 and Phase 2 environmental assessments were performed by Environmental Management Strategies, Inc., and are included in this submittal. Low levels of metals, hydrocarbons, and VOCs were detected, but the risk of health threats and building intrusion was determined to be low. No site remediation is recommended or required. During construction, proper sediment and erosion control and pollution best management practices will be used to prevent pollutant transport from the site. 1. Based on the 676 Moss Street Fiscal Impact Analysis prepared by Kosmont Companies, April 2020. 2. There were up to 37 full-time employees on the site in January 2020. Hawthorne Equipment Rental plans to move its operations and 14 employees roughly 500 feet east to the former amusement center site on Industrial Boulevard. 3. Based on the SANDAG Regional Growth forecast of 82,146 civilian jobs and 88,186 housing units in Chula Vista in 2020. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 5 The site is approximately 600 feet away from I-5 and is adjacent to the railroad. It is approximately 1,000 feet away from MSCP subarea 237. The project will not impact MSCP-designated lands. The project proposes 141 units in 18 townhouse- and courtyard-style buildings, and include 32 two- bedroom units and 109 three-bedroom units. Approximately 75 of the three-bedroom units would have the opportunity to add a fourth bedroom. The site would provide housing for approximately 355 people.4 Additionally, the project will provide high-quality, high-density, for-sale housing in southwest Chula Vista, a market that is currently underserved. The units will be available in a variety of types and sizes, which will result in different price points and target markets. Prices will be affected by the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, private open spaces (such as roof decks), unit location, and other options such as materials and fixtures. Prices are projected to start under the FHA Mortgage Limit, allowing for a down payment of 3.5 percent. The City Housing Division has stated this project is allowed a waiver for the inclusionary requirement because the project is located in a census tract defined as an “Area of Low/Moderate Income Concentration.” The project is not subject to any local or state density bonuses. No off-site improvements to the existing infrastructure are needed to support the project. The site is currently well served by existing infrastructure. The Sweetwater Authority provides water service to the existing buildings and would provide service for the new condominiums as well. Sewer service is provided by the City. Water for the site will connect to an existing water main in Moss Street. Sewer for the project will connect to existing sewer mains in Industrial Boulevard and Moss Street. Two sewer connections are proposed to avoid creating an intersection of the Telegraph Canyon Drainage Channel with a sewer pipe. Electricity is provided by San Diego Gas & Electric, which would provide power for the site after construction. Solid waste removal is provided by Republic Services. The site was designed to facilitate easy removal of waste by service vehicles, and the planned trash enclosures will ensure litter and waste are not transported around or from the site. An existing double-barrel 10-foot by 12-foot box-culvert bisects the site. It will be unaffected by the proposed development, as a 5-foot minimum setback is provided from it to each building. Drainage will flow down gentle slopes, away from the center of the site, into bioretention basins and proprietary stormwater management best management practices. 4. Based on the City’s density rate for RH land uses of 2.52 persons per dwelling. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 6 Harborside Elementary School is approximately 0.25 miles south of the site and is approximately a 5- minute walk. Chula Vista High School is approximately 1-mile northeast of the site and is within 25 minutes of walking distance. The site is between two trolley stations that provide regional public transit access. The Palomar Street station is approximately 0.65 miles south on Industrial Boulevard, and the H Street station is approximately 1.3 miles north on Industrial Boulevard. These distances translate to approximately a 14- minute walk and 6-minute bicycle ride to Palomar, or a 35-minute walk and 10-minute bicycle ride to H Street. Blue Line trolleys run every 7.5 minutes during peak hours, every 15 minutes during off-peak hours, and every 30 minutes during late night service (9:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m.). While the site is just outside the preferred 0.5-mile distance from the Palomar Street station, it has a high degree of pedestrian accessibility to transportation options. The site is approximately 0.3 miles away (a 6-minute walk) from the Broadway and Moss bus stops, which are serviced by the MTS 932 line. MTS 932 runs seven days a week, with headways ranging from 15 minutes to an hour. In the future, it is possible an L Street trolley station will be constructed. The condominiums would provide appropriate density for development within a 0.25-mile radius of a trolley station. The project would neither require nor preclude the construction of an L Street station, and it provides the ability for future connections to L Street and Arizona Street. The project proposes the creation of 141 residential units to help meet the need for increased housing accessibility and ownership in the Southwest Planning Area. The project will replace existing, blighted industrial facilities and operations with structures and uses that are more compatible with the adjacent to residential land uses. The residential development and improvements will create a more cohesive community character along Moss Street, and frontage improvements will ensure the neighborhood becomes more walkable, friendly, and accessible for all residents. The new units will strengthen a neighborhood well serviced by transit and will provide potential customers to local businesses. The density is similar to the neighboring high-density apartment complex and higher than the neighboring low-density residential to the south. The condominiums will provide an excellent and natural transition from the single-family homes to more intensive industrial uses along L Street. Finally, the project will generate significant net revenue for the City over a 20-year time frame. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 7 The following summarizes how the project is consistent with the objectives, goals, and policies designated in each element of the General Plan. A full consistency analysis is submitted separately. This project is consistent with the Housing Element of the General Plan. It directly works toward the goal of providing more homeownership opportunities in the City and the Southwest Planning Area. Specifically, it encourages the provision of a wide range of housing choices (Objective H5) and aligns with Policy H 5.2.1 to increase homeownership rates within the Southwest Planning Area by providing high-density, for-sale dwelling units. With an assortment of two- to four-bedroom units, different levels of private open space, and other options, the development would provide housing for a range of family sizes. The project would preserve existing neighborhoods and remove potentially nuisance businesses currently adjacent to residential developments. This, in turn, would unify and strengthen community character and the image for the neighborhood on Moss Street (Housing Theme 1). This project would help accomplish the goals and themes of the Land Use and Transportation (LUT) Element. The project’s access to mixed-use commercial areas and regional transit hubs positions it to provide improved mobility for residents by creating a safe, balanced, and walkable community (Goal LUT 6.1). The project proposes a mix of unit types and sizes, which provides the development the ability to “respond to diverse community needs in terms of density, size, location, and cost” (Policy LUT 1.9). The LUT Element also calls for the City to “pursue higher density residential categories and retail demand that are not being met within the City” (Policy LUT 1.8). The proposed project directly helps the City meet its goal by adding for-sale, high-density units in southwest Chula Vista, in an area recognized as a high-quality transit corridor. The project also meets the policies and goals of the Southwest Planning Area. The project complements and enhances the value of existing residential neighborhoods in the Southwest Planning Area by reducing “adverse land use impacts” created by the industrial businesses currently operating on the site (Objective LUT 35). By providing for-sale housing, the project helps accommodate anticipated population growth (Objective LUT 36). The project is consistent with Policy LUT 42.5, which states uses “west of Colorado Street” should be designated as Light Industrial. The project site is east of Colorado Avenue. The adjoining property west of Colorado Avenue is proposed to remain Light Industrial. As a whole, the project directly implements the policies and objectives in the LUT Element by increasing land use compatibilities, stabilizing a residential neighborhood, and complementing and strengthening the mixed-use residential in the South Broadway District. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 8 The project is consistent with the policies listed in the Environmental Element of the General Plan. The project will remove potentially harmful industrial uses and convert the land into a transit-accessible, high- density residential facility. The project will comply with local, state, and federal environmental requirements regarding habitat preservation and stormwater runoff management. The project proposes several stormwater treatment and retention best management practices to comply with the San Diego MS4 Permit (Policy E 2.3 to E 2.5). The project is consistent with Chula Vista’s MSCP Subarea Plan (Policy E 1.1) and, therefore, no biological resources will be affected. Replacement of the existing industrial operations will eliminate potential sources of airborne contaminants, noise, and other potentially noxious activities adjacent to existing residential communities. The project is generally consistent with the broad goals and policies laid out in the Economic Development Element. It helps the City follow Policy ED 2.3 to pursue a “diverse supply of housing types and costs” by providing a mix of two- to four-bedroom units with different floor areas, private open space, and options for sale. It also provides moderate-high income, for-sale housing in the Southwest Planning Area, which currently has limited options for this market. The Fiscal Impact Analysis shows the project would replace a use that creates a net deficit with one that creates a net benefit. The project provides a significant capital investment into an underutilized and underinvested site, which benefits the neighborhood and City as a whole. While the project would not directly encourage the preservation and expansion of existing industrial uses in areas designated as industrial (Policy ED 1.3), the 7-acre area proposed to be converted represents less than 0.4 percent of the total limited industrial lands (7/1,885 acres)5 and does not adversely affect the vitality of the remaining industrial land uses or operations. Rather, it provides a clear and more logical transition between the industrial uses and residential neighborhood. This project would not directly create any permanent jobs, but it would provide much-needed housing in support of regional job growth. It is also projected to support approximately 600 construction jobs during development and provide new, modern housing in support of the projected 2,000 new jobs in the Bayfront Development Project6. A detailed Employment Lands Analysis conducted by Kosmont Companies found the projected demand for industrial lands in 2050 is approximately 888 acres, which is far exceeded by the currently zoned lands of approximately 2,145 aces. The 7-acre conversion would not substantially affect the City’s potential for industrial development or employment capacity. The property’s zoning does not allow office uses, so the proposed rezone would have no effect on the City’s capacity for office centered employment uses. 5. City of Chula Vista General Plan, Table 5-6 , accessed May 2020. 6. https://www.chulavistaca.gov/residents/chula-vista-bayfront 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 9 The project does not conflict with the policies or objectives listed in the Growth Management Element of the General Plan. Crucially, this project achieves Goal GM 3 to “Create and preserve vital neighborhoods” by paying for its proportional share of infrastructure and by creating a vibrant and varied neighborhood with a diversity of housing types. The surrounding land uses include high-density apartments, mixed-use residential-commercial, low-density detached homes, medium-density detached homes, and medium- high density mobile homes. This project would introduce another type of housing, market-rate condominiums, to better support the diversity of housing needs in southwest Chula Vista. The project does not directly induce or facilitate any growth or conversion on adjacent industrial lands, and no land use changes are needed on adjacent properties to accommodate the project. If, however, the industrial land on the same block was eventually converted, the loss of industrial lands would account for approximately 2 percent of the City’s total limited industrial lands (37/1,885 acres). It would represent a loss of roughly 8 percent of the industrial lands in the Industrial Boulevard Corridor, which contains approximately 470 acres of industrial lands.7 The project does not propose any land use conversions on adjacent properties. If adjacent lands were converted to different uses, the condominiums would have a high degree of compatibility with any potential uses. This project does not conflict with the policies or objectives listed in the Public Facilities Element. Rather, the project is a good example of smart growth that invests in higher-density residential developments in areas of existing infrastructure and capacity. It will provide adequate utility service to each structure and will not add a significant burden to the water or sewer districts. The project will not require the construction of new fire or police stations. The project is designed so there is adequate access and turning radii for the largest fire vehicles (Policy PFS 6.1), and a new fire-loop will be added to provide adequate water pressure for the complex (Policy PFS 6.2). The project proposes a comprehensive drainage and stormwater management plan, with different bioretention and proprietary best management practices to retain and treat stormwater flows on-site, aligning with NPDES requirements and General Plan policies. Additionally, the site is located within walking distance to schools and parks, providing residents with easy access to public facilities. As a condition of the project, the rail spur on-site will be removed. Currently, only one business utilizes the spur, and the spur is not accessible to adjacent properties. The removal of the spur will not affect the industrial viability of the adjacent properties. The spur is not a public facility. 7. See Industrial Land Analysis, Appendix A, Exhibit 6 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map General Plan Amendment Justification Report Page 10 The project will increase the quality of life of Chula Vista residents by creating a stronger, more logical, and unified residential neighborhood with a clearer transition between residential and industrial uses, a consistent land use frontage, and a more attractive and pedestrian-friendly streetscape along Moss Street. The project will increase housing availability for a variety of incomes and family sizes and grant the opportunity for Chula Vista residents to plant deep roots in the community through homeownership. The project works to accomplish the broad goals and policies laid out in the General Plan through the creation of compatible land uses, establishment of high-density housing on transit-accessible sites, and provision of street improvements in an area identified as deficient by City staff. The project represents the most compatible use for all existing and potential future uses and does not induce or preclude redevelopment of the nearby industrial lands. The condominium complex is thoughtfully designed to match the neighborhood’s context and will result in an increased sense of place and community for residents and neighbors. 676 Moss Street – Proposed General Plan Amendments Prepared for: SLF – Moss Street, LLC Contact: James O’Malley 949-417-1396 JOMalley@shopoff.com Preparer: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 858.614.5000 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dan Wery, AICP, LEED AP JN 167467 Prepared for: SLF – Moss Street, LLC Contact: James O’Malley 949-417-1396 JOMalley@shopoff.com Preparer: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 858.614.5000 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dan Wery, AICP, LEED AP JN 167467 11/29/2018 Revised 5/15/2020 Revised 5/26/2020 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page i PROPOSED GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENTS .............................................................................. 1 LUT Figure 5-12: Existing ........................................................................................................... 2 LUT Figure 5-12: Proposed ........................................................................................................ 3 LUT Table 5-5 Redlined Changes................................................................................................ 4 LUT Table 5-6 Redlined Changes................................................................................................ 5 LUT Table 5-7 Redlined Changes................................................................................................ 6 LUT Figure 5-22: Existing ........................................................................................................... 7 LUT Figure 5-22: Proposed ........................................................................................................ 8 Housing Element, Table B-1 Redlined Changes ......................................................................... 9 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 1 The table below summarizes the amendments required by the 676 Moss Street project for applicable tables and figures in the City of Chula Vista General Plan. The following pages show the existing and proposed figures and the specific redlined changes to the tables. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 2 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 3 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 4 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 5 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 6 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 7 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 8 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Proposed General Plan Amendment: Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Changes to Text, Tables, and Graphics Page 9 676 Moss Street – Proposed General Plan Amendments C. PUBLIC FACILITIES FINANCE PLAN 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Prepared for: City of Chula Vista 276 Fourth Avenue Chula Vista, CA 91910 Applicant: SLF – Moss Street, LLC Contact: James O’Malley 949-417-1396 JOMalley@shopoff.com Prepared by: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dino Serafini (619) 218-9578 JN 167467 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Prepared for: City of Chula Vista 276 Fourth Avenue Chula Vista, CA 91910 Applicant: SLF – Moss Street, LLC Contact: James O’Malley 949-417-1396 JOMalley@shopoff.com Prepared by: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dino Serafini (619) 218-9578 JN 167467 April 2020 Revised May 2020 This page intentionally left blank for double-sided printing purposes. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Table of Contents Page i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Threshold Standards ........................................................................................................ 1 1.3 The Project ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Public Facilities Finance Plan Boundaries ......................................................................... 2 2.0 TRANSPORTATION ......................................................................................................... 4 2.1 GMOC Threshold Standard .............................................................................................. 4 2.2 GMOC Level of Service Standards for Arterial Roads ....................................................... 4 2.3 Project Processing Requirements .................................................................................... 5 2.4 Transportation Impact Analysis and Methodology .......................................................... 5 2.5 Operational Improvements .............................................................................................. 6 3.0 POLICE FACILITIES .......................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Service Analysis ................................................................................................................ 8 3.2 Threshold Standard .......................................................................................................... 8 3.3 Project Processing Requirements .................................................................................... 9 3.4 Adequacy Analysis ........................................................................................................... 9 3.5 Financing Police Facilities ................................................................................................. 9 4.0 FIRE AND EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES .................................................................. 10 4.1 Service Analysis .............................................................................................................. 10 4.2 Threshold Standard ........................................................................................................ 10 4.3 Project Processing Requirements .................................................................................. 10 4.4 Adequacy Analysis ......................................................................................................... 10 4.5 Financing Fire Service Facilities ...................................................................................... 11 5.0 PARK DEDICATION AND IMPROVEMENTS .................................................................... 12 5.1 Service Analysis .............................................................................................................. 12 5.2 Threshold Standard ........................................................................................................ 12 5.3 Existing Conditions ......................................................................................................... 12 5.4 Project Park Requirements ............................................................................................ 12 5.5 Financing Park Facilities ................................................................................................. 13 6.0 PUBLIC FACILITIES ........................................................................................................ 14 6.1 Civic Center, Corporation Yard, Recreation, and Administration ................................... 14 6.2 Libraries ......................................................................................................................... 14 6.3 Financing Public Facilities ............................................................................................... 15 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Table of Contents Public Facilities Finance Plan Page ii 7.0 SEWER FACILITIES ........................................................................................................ 16 7.1 Service Analysis .............................................................................................................. 16 7.2 Threshold Standard ........................................................................................................ 16 7.3 Existing and Proposed Conditions .................................................................................. 16 7.4 Financing Sewer Facilities .............................................................................................. 17 8.0 WATER FACILITIES ........................................................................................................ 18 8.1 Service Analysis .............................................................................................................. 18 8.2 Threshold Standards ...................................................................................................... 18 8.3 Existing and Proposed Conditions .................................................................................. 18 8.4 Water Capacity Charges ................................................................................................. 19 9.0 DRAINAGE FACILITIES ................................................................................................... 20 9.1 Service Analysis .............................................................................................................. 20 9.2 Threshold Standards ...................................................................................................... 20 9.3 Existing and Proposed Conditions .................................................................................. 20 10.0 AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE PROTECTION .................................................................... 21 10.1 Service Analysis........................................................................................................... 21 10.2 Threshold Standards ................................................................................................... 21 10.3 Adequacy Analysis ...................................................................................................... 22 Table 1. Summary of Estimated City-Imposed Development Impact Fee Revenues from the Project ........ 4 Table 2.1 GMOC Level of Service (LOS) Definitions ...................................................................................... 4 Table 2.2 Western Area Transportation Development Impact Fee Schedule .............................................. 6 Table 2.3 Traffic Signal Impact Fee Schedule ................................................................................................ 7 Table 3.1 Project Public Facilities Fees for Police ......................................................................................... 9 Table 4.1 Current and Planned Fire Station Facilities in Project’s Vicinity ................................................. 11 Table 4.2 Public Facilities Fees for Fire/EMS Facilities ................................................................................ 11 Table 5.1 Quimby Act Parkland Requirements ........................................................................................... 12 Table 5.2 Parkland Dedication Requirements Based on Parkland Dedication Ordinance Standards......... 13 Table 5.3 Park Development Component Fees (Development In-Lieu Component Only) ......................... 13 Table 5.4 Park Acquisition Component Fees (Acquisition In-Lieu Component Only) ................................. 13 Table 6.1 Current Library Facilities ............................................................................................................. 14 Table 6.2 PFDIF for Civic Center, Library, Corporation Yard, Recreation and Administration .................... 15 Table 7.1 Sewer Capacity Charge ................................................................................................................ 17 Exhibit 2.1: Project Location ......................................................................................................................... 3 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Acronyms and Abbreviations Page iii APCD .................. Air Pollution Control District BMP .................... Best Management Practice CFS ...................... Calls for Service CIP ...................... Capital Improvement Program City ..................... City of Chula Vista CO2 ..................... Carbon Dioxide CVFD ................... Chula Vista Fire Department CVMC ................. Chula Vista Municipal Code CVPD .................. Chula Vista Police Department DIF ...................... Development Impact Fee EDU .................... Equivalent Dwelling Unit EMS .................... Emergency Medical Services GME.................... Growth Management Element GMOC ................. Growth Management Oversight Commission GMP ................... Growth Management Plan HCM ................... Highway Capacity Manual IS/MND ............... Initial Study/Mitigated Negative Declaration LOS ..................... Level of Service 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Acronyms and Abbreviations Public Facilities Finance Plan Page iv Metro ................. Metropolitan Wastewater Joint Powers Authority mgd ................... Million Gallons per Day MWD .................. Metropolitan Water District of Southern California OPR..................... California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research PAD ..................... Parkland Acquisition and Development PDO .................... Parkland Dedication Ordinance PFDIF .................. Public Facilities Development Impact Fee PFFP .................... Public Facilities Finance Plan Project ................ 676 Moss Street Project SANDAG ............. San Diego Association of Governments SWA .................... Sweetwater Authority SWQMP .............. Stormwater Quality Management Plan TIA ...................... Traffic Impact Analysis TMP .................... Traffic Monitoring Program VMT .................... Vehicle Miles Traveled WTDIF ................. Western Area Transportation Development Impact Fee WWTP ................ Wastewater Treatment Plant 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Executive Summary Page ES-1 This Public Facilities Finance Plan (PFFP) addresses the public facility needs associated with the 676 Moss Street Project (Project). The Project is described in the Project’s City Submittal dated November 6, 2019, by William Hezmalhalch Architects, Inc. (dba WHA). The PFFP also describes the various responsibilities of the Project developer to provide the needed public facilities. This PFFP is prepared in accordance with the Chula Vista Growth Management Program (GMP). The purpose of the GMP is to implement the City’s General Plan and establish a mechanism which helps ensure development does not occur unless facilities and improvements are available to support that development. The GMP does this by: ▪ Identifying all facilities and improvements necessary to accommodate the land uses specified in the General Plan, ▪ Indicating where and when facilities fall short of the threshold level of service standards established for each facility type, and ▪ Identifying the means by which additional facilities are to be provided. The GMP is implemented through the Growth Management Oversight Commission (GMOC) process. The GMOC monitors the impact of development on the City’s ability to provide ser vices. The thresholds monitored by the GMOC are as follows: ▪ Traffic ▪ Police ▪ Fire and Emergency Medical Services ▪ Parks and Recreation ▪ Schools ▪ Libraries ▪ Sewer ▪ Water ▪ Drainage ▪ Air Quality and Climate Protection This PFFP is based on the Project information found in the City Submittal. The PFFP analyzes the existing demand on facilities based on the demand from existing development and the specific facility demand of the Project. The PFFP also considers those development projects in the region with various entitlements from 2019 through 2021. Facility thresholds are indicators of the capacity of facilities or services to meet increasing demands from new development while remaining in compliance with the GMP threshold standards established for each facility or service topic.1 When the established thresholds for a specific facility or service are projected to be reached or exceeded, based on the analysis of the Project’s development, the PFFP identifies those facilities necessary for continued compliance with the GMP and, where appropriate, outlines conditions 1. Also found in Section 19.09.040 of Chapter 19.09, Growth Management, of the Chula Vista Municipal Code. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Executive Summary Public Facilities Finance Plan Page ES-2 of approval applied to Project entitlements. The GMP requires the development be limited or reduced until certain actions are taken to guarantee public facilities will be available or provided to meet the quality of life threshold standards. Subsequent Project changes may require an amendment to this PFFP. Typically, as an applicant receives each succeeding development approval, the applicant must perform a series of required actions intended to ensure facilities will be provided concurrently with need. Failure to perform any required action will curtail a project’s development approvals. The typical actions are listed below. ▪ Subdivision approval conditioned upon assurance of facility funding ▪ Subdivision approval conditioned upon payment of fees, or the dedication, reservation, or zoning of land for identified facilities ▪ Subdivision approval conditioned upon construction of certain facility improvements ▪ Impact fees paid as required The critical link between the City’s quality of life threshold standards and development entitlement is the PFFP, including the following information, where applicable: ▪ An inventory of present and future requirements for each facility based on GMP threshold standards ▪ A summary of estimated facilities costs ▪ A facility phasing schedule establishing the timing for installation or provision of facilities ▪ A financing plan identifying the method of funding for each facility required ▪ A fiscal impact report ▪ A report on Project consistency with the requirements and conclusions of the GMP ▪ Section 19.09.080 of the Chula Vista Municipal Code (CVMC) provides that no tentative subdivision map shall be approved, or deemed to be approved, without an approved PFFP. Furthermore, “[n]o final map shall be approved until all the conditions of the PFFP, the water conservation plan and the air quality improvement plan have been met, or the project applicant has provided adequate security to the city that said plans will be implemented.” (CVMC Section 19.09.080.E) ▪ No development shall occur in a PFFP area if the demand for any public facilities , infrastructure and services exceeds capacity and it is not feasible to increase capacity prior to completion of development unless the means, schedule, and financing for increasing the capacity are 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Executive Summary Page ES-3 established through the execution of a binding agreement providing for installation and maintenance of such facilities or improvements in advance of the City’s phasing schedule. (CVMC Section 19.09.080.H) ▪ The CVMC provides that, if the City Manager determines facilities or improvements within a PFFP are inadequate to accommodate any further development within that area, the City Manager shall immediately report the deficiency to the City Council. If the City Council determines such events or changed circumstances adversely affect the health, safety, or welfare of Chula Vista, the City may require amendment, modification, suspension, or termination of an approved PFFP. ▪ The PFFP shall be implemented in accordance with CVMC Section 19.09.120. Future amendments shall be in accordance with CVMC Section 19.09.130 and shall incorporate newly acquired data, to add conditions and update standards as determined necessary by the City through the required monitoring program. This PFFP applies to all future projects within Project boundaries. Future projects will be reviewed for consistency with the Project’s submittals, this PFFP, and the Project Initial Study/Mitigated Negative Declaration (IS/MND). Future projects determined to be inconsistent with the above will require additional environmental review and may require amendments to the Project submittals, the PFFP, and the IS/MND. The following also apply to the PFFP: ▪ This PFFP analyzes the maximum allowable development potential for planning purposes only. The approval of this plan does not guarantee specific development densities. ▪ Approval of this PFFP is contingent upon approval of the amendments to the General Plan. The project does not propose to construct any offsite public improvements and will not be phased. All public improvements (road frontage) will provided by the developer will be constructed concurrently with the project. Table 1, Summary of Estimated City-Imposed Development Impact Fee Revenues from the Project, identifies and summarizes the various projected development impact fee (DIF) revenues associated with Project development (an “X” indicates the development within this land use pays the applicable City impact fee). The Transportation Impact Analysis (TIA) for the Project (LL&G Engineers, April 20, 2020) identifies improvements that would be required in connection with Project development. As a project exaction, the developer must complete all roadway frontage improvements as required for subdivision access. The project is required to pay both a transportation Development Impact Fee and a traffic signal fee. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Executive Summary Public Facilities Finance Plan Page ES-4 The developer will construct on-site sewer, drainage, and water facilities. Off-site connections, if needed to support the proposed development, are also the responsibility of the developer. The Project’s 141 residential units will generate approximately 29 elementary school students, 9 middle school students, and 13 high school students. The Project is in the Chula Vista Elementary School District and the Sweetwater Union High School District. The developer must satisfy its obligations to mitigate the Project’s impacts on school facilities as required by state law. The Project will trigger DIFs for libraries, police services, fire services, the Civic Center, the Corporation Yard, and other City public facilities. These facilities will be funded, in part, from revenues generated from the payment of Public Facilities Development Impact Fees (PFDIF). The projected DIF revenues (including Western Area Transportation Development Impact Fees [WTDIF], traffic signal fees, and the PFDIF) at Project buildout are identified in Table 1. TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED CITY-IMPOSED DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEE REVENUES FROM THE PROJECT Fees are based on the City’s Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, Form 5509, revised October 20, 2019. Fees are subject to change as the ordinance is amended by the City Council from time to time, unless stated otherwise in a separate development a greement. This estimate is preliminary and is subject to change with changes in assumptions. a) This is the maximum potential use credit, which does not account for the minimum transportation impact fee required to be collected by SANDAG. Previous use verified by reviewing rent roll data from applicant. Using historical aerial photos, the City determined that existing buildings have occupied the site since at least 1978. b) SANDAG'S TranNet Ordinance requires $2,533.15 to be collected per dwelling unit to fund the RTCIP Regional Arterial System ne twork. The required fee for RTCIP RAS is $357,174.15 (i.e., 141 MFDUs X $2,533.15/unit).The maximum potential previous use credit is capped to ensure that the full amount of RTCIP is collected. The RTCIP rate will be indexed to $2,583.82 per unit on July 1, 2020. c) Chula Vista citywide Traffic Signal Fee, applied as a cost per each trip generated by the project (6 trips per unit). d) Facilities funded by Public Facilities Development Impact Fee (PFDIF). 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Introduction Page 1 The purpose of all PFFPs in Chula Vista is to implement the City's Growth Management Program (GMP) and to meet the General Plan goals and objectives, specifically those of the Growth Management Element. The GMP ensures development occurs only when the necessary public facilities and services exist or are provided concurrently with the demands of new development. The GMP requires a PFFP be prepared for every new development project that requires either a sectional planning area plan or tentative map approval. The PFFP is intended to be a dynamic, flexible document. The goal of the PFFP is to ensure adequate levels of service are achieved for all public facilities impacted by a project. It is understood assumed growth projections and related public facility needs are subject to a number of external factors, such as the state of the economy or the City’s future land use approval decisions. It is also understood funding sources specified herein may change due to financing programs available in the future or requirements of either state or federal law. Cost estimates contained herein are intended for illustrative purpose only; the actual costs of such improvements will vary over time. These cost changes are not considered revisions to the PFFP and may be handled administratively. Threshold standards are used to identify when new or upgraded public facilities are needed to mitigate the impacts of new development. Development approvals will not be made unless compliance with these standards can be met. The threshold standards have been prepared to guarantee public facilities or infrastructure improvements will keep pace with the demands of growth. The threshold standards fall into three general categories: ▪ Performance standard: A performance standard measuring overall level of service is established for police, fire and emergency medical services, sewers, drainage facilities, and traffic. ▪ Ratio: A ratio of facilities to population is established for park and recreation facilities and for libraries. ▪ Qualitative standard: A qualitative standard is established for schools, water, air quality and climate protection, and fiscal impacts. The qualitative standard pertains to some services that are provided by agencies outside of the City— schools by the Chula Vista Elementary School District and the Sweetwater Union High School District, water service by either of two independent water districts (Otay Water District and Sweetwater Authority), and the Metropolitan Wastewater Joint Powers Authority, which has an agreement with the City of Chula Vista to treat its wastewater. Finally, the air quality and climate protection and fiscal threshold standards do not relate to specific public services but are intended to determine whether growth is having an adverse impact on two other measures of quality of life: the air quality and climate change impacts within the region, and the City’s overall fiscal health. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Introduction Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 2 The threshold standards are applied in three ways: 1) Many of the standards were used in the development and evaluation of the City’s General Plan to ensure quality of life objectives would be met at the time of General Plan buildout during a 20- to 25-year period. 2) Certain standards are used in the evaluation of individual development projects to determine the possible project impacts and to apply appropriate conditions and requirements to mitigate those impacts. 3) All of the standards are monitored by the Growth Management Oversight Commission (GMOC) on an annual basis to ensure cumulative impacts of new growth do not result in a deterioration of quality of life, as measured by these standards. The Project is in southwestern Chula Vista, approximately 2.5 miles south of downtown Chula Vista and 11 miles south of downtown San Diego. The Project is located on a 6.9-acre parcel just east of Interstate 5 on Moss Street, between L Street and Naples Street. The boundaries of the PFFP are the area of the City west of Interstate 805. The boundaries are based on the impact created by the Project on the existing and future need for facilities. The boundaries will correlate the proposed development Project with existing and future development proposed for the area of impact so as to provide for the economically efficient and timely installation of both on- and off-site facilities and improvements required by the development. In establishing the boundaries for the PFFP, the City is guided by the following considerations: ▪ Service areas, drainage, sewer basins, and pressure zones that serve the project ▪ Extent to which facilities or improvements are in place or available ▪ Ownership of property ▪ Project impact on public facilities relationships, especially the impact on the City’s planned major circulation network ▪ Special district service territories ▪ Approved fire, drainage, sewer, or other facilities or improvement master plans The PFFP for the Project addresses public facilities within the PFFP boundaries; however, the PFFP also addresses certain facilities (streets, drainage, sewer, police, fire, schools, etc.) impacted beyond the PFFP boundaries. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Introduction Page 3 Source: Initial Study/Mitigated Negative Declaration for 476 Moss Street 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Transportation Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 4 This section of the PFFP summarizes level of service (LOS) standards by which the City’s arterial roads are to operate. The threshold standards are set by CVMC 19.09.040.G.3. ▪ Arterial Level of Service for Nonurban Streets. Traffic monitoring program (TMP) roadway segments classified as other than urban streets in the Land Use and Transportation Element of the City’s General Plan shall maintain LOS “C” or better, except that during peak hours LOS “D” can occur for no more than two hours per day. ▪ Level of Service for Urban Streets. TMP roadway segments classified as urban streets in the Land Use and Transportation Element of the City’s General Plan shall maintain LOS “D” or better, except that during peak hours LOS “E” can occur for no more than two hours per day. The following are notes to the GMOC threshold standards for arterial roads found in CVMC Chapter 19.09.040.G.4. There are no GMOC standards for local residential streets. a. Arterial Segment. LOS measurements shall be for the average weekday peak hours, excluding seasonal and special circumstance variations. b. The LOS measurement of arterial segments at freeway ramps shall be a growth management consideration in situations where proposed developments have a significant impact at interchanges. c. Circulation improvements should be implemented prior to the anticipated deterioration of LOS below established standards. d. The criteria for calculating arterial LOS and defining arterial lengths and classifications shall follow the procedures detailed in Chapter 11 of the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) and shall be confirmed by the City’s Traffic Engineer. e. Level of service values for arterial segments shall be based on the following table: TABLE 2.1 GMOC LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS) DEFINITIONS Source: Transportation Research Board, Highway Capacity Manual 6th Edition Exhibit 18-1 (2016) 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Transportation Page 5 The GMP requires the PFFP address the following issues for traffic facilities per Appendix C of the City’s Growth Management Program Implementation Manual (CVMC 19.09.090): ▪ Identify on-site and off-site impacts and improvements by phase of development; and ▪ Provide cost estimates for improvements. The Transportation Impact Analysis (TIA) (LLG, April 20, 2020) assesses Project-related traffic impacts through analysis of the project’s impacts on vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The analysis was based on the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) Technical Advisory (December 2018). The OPR Technical Advisory suggests significance thresholds based on VMT per resident for residential projects and VMT per employee for employment projects. For both metrics, a project whose VMT is 85 percent or lower than the citywide or regional average is presumed to have less than significant transportation impacts. The Technical Advisory also suggests various project screening procedures, whereby certain projects may be presumed to have less than significant transportation impacts based on their circumstances without requiring detailed VMT analysis. This screening process is described below. The OPR allows for “map-based screening” to determine whether or not a project can be presumed to have less than significant transportation impacts without requiring detailed modeling or analysis. The City published a screening map identifying VMT per capita for locations around the City. The VMT estimate was developed by the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) and accounts for VMT per capita considering surrounding land uses, population density, transit infrastructure, and other factors. The City’s VMT map indicates the Project would have a projected VMT per capita of 10.80, which represents 61.36 percent of the regional VMT average. Since this is below 85 percent of the regional average, the Project is screened from detailed VMT analysis and its impacts are presumed to be less than significant. Therefore, the Project would not have a significant impact on VMT in the City, and no mitigation for VMT is required. Prior to conducting the VMT analysis in support of the IS/MND, LLG conducted a detailed Local Mobility Analysis, dated April 20, 2020, which analyzed the potential Project effects on the LOS of local streets. As indicated in Section 2.3 of this PFFP and CVMC 19.09.040.G, projects that substantially affect the LOS on urban roads and arterials identified in the Land Use and Transportation Element of the General Plan are required to provide cost estimates for improvements. The Project is directly adjacent to Moss Street, a Class III Collector, and Industrial Boulevard, a Class II Collector. Moss Street and Industrial Boulevard are not subject to the LOS requirements of the Growth Management Ordinance. The San Diego Association of Governments’ Brief Guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego Region (April 2002) provides trip generation rates. The Project trip generation uses the trip rates 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Transportation Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 6 for apartment use. The Project is calculated to generate approximately 720 average daily trips with 59 total AM peak-hour trips (10 inbound and 49 outbound) and 64 total PM peak-hour trips (46 inbound and 18 outbound). LLG analyzed the effects of the project under existing plus project conditions, 2025 plus project conditions, and 2045 plus project conditions. Substantial project-specific effects are those effects for which the addition of project trips result in an identifiable degradation in LOS on Circulation Element intersections, triggering the need for specific project-related improvement strategies. Substantial cumulative effects are those in which the project trips contribute to a poor LOS, at a level that falls below the project-specific effect threshold. The Local Mobility Analysis concludes the Project has no substantial Project-specific effects on urban streets or other Circulation Element roads. The Project does contribute to cumulative effects on local, non-circulation element roadways that are not subject to the GMOC pursuant to CVMC 19.09.040.G. The WTDIF and Traffic Signal Fees were established to address cumulative Project effects. The Project will be required to pay over $379,000 for these fees. The project would not have direct impacts on intersections or daily street segments in the Existing Year, Year 2025, or Horizon Year (2045) conditions. Therefore, no direct impact mitigations are required. The project would contribute to substantial cumulative effects at intersections and daily street segments in the Existing Year, Year 2025, and Horizon Year (2045) conditions. Because the intersections and street segments, however, are not identified in the Circulation Element as urban streets or arterials, or identified in the City’s Traffic Monitoring Program, they are not subject to the thresholds of CVMC 19.09.040.G.3, and are not, therefore, required to be accounted for in the PFFP. These cumulative effects will be alleviated by payments of the WTDIF and Traffic Signal Fees totaling over $379,000. These fees may be used to make specific improvements to segments, intersections, and signals, or may be used in support of larger projects, such as the Palomar Street Grade separation. The Local Mobility Analysis identifies specific projects that may be used to mitigate these cumulative effects. The Project is within the boundaries of the WTDIF and, as such, is subject to payment of appropriate fees. The developer’s total fee obligation is based on the WTDIF rates in effect at the time of payment. Table 2.2 presents the current WTDIF fee schedule. The fee schedule may change from time to time as the City updates the WTDIF program or approves cost escalation factors as provided in the program. TABLE 2.2 WESTERN AREA TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEE SCHEDULE Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Transportation Page 7 Based on the current fee schedule and the Project housing density of 20.4 units per acre, a rate of $2,684 per unit results in a total WTDIF amount of $378,444. The Project would be required to pay the citywide Traffic Signal Fee based on expected trip generation. TABLE 2.3 TRAFFIC SIGNAL IMPACT FEE SCHEDULE Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. The rate is $40.56 per trip, and the signal fee is calculated using an estimated rate of 6 trips per unit, leading to an estimated 846 average daily trips for the 141 units. The signal impact fee would be $34,313.76. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Police Facilities Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 8 The Chula Vista Police Department (CVPD) provides municipal law enforcement services in the City. The purpose of the threshold standards is to maintain or improve the current level of police services throughout the City by ensuring that adequate levels of staff and equipment are provided. The original GMOC police threshold standards were adopted in 1987 and were subsequently revised, most recently in 2015. Threshold standards for police apply to response times to calls for service (CFS) of two priority levels. The threshold standards adopted in 2015 (and still in effect for the 2019 GMOC report) for Priority 1 and Priority 2 calls are as follows (CVMC 19.09.040.A.3): ▪ Priority 1- Emergency Response: Properly equipped and staffed police units shall respond to 81 percent of Priority 1 emergency calls throughout the city within 7 minutes, 30 seconds and shall maintain an average response time to all Priority 1 emergency calls of 6 minutes or less (measured annually). o (Editor’s Note: Emergency calls are calls about life-threatening situations, felony in progress, probability of injury (crime or accident), robbery or panic alarms, or urgent cover calls from officers. Response: Immediate response by two officers from any source or assignment; immediate response by paramedics/fire if injuries are believed to have occurred.) ▪ Priority 2- Urgent Response: Properly equipped and staffed police units shall respond to all Priority 2 urgent calls throughout the city within 12 minutes. o (Editor’s Note: Urgent calls are regarding misdemeanor in progress, possibility of injury, or serious non-routine calls (domestic violence or other disturbances with potential for violence). Response: Immediate response by one or more officers from clear units or those on interruptible activities (traffic calls, field interviews, etc.).) ▪ (Note: For growth management purposes, response time includes dispatch and travel time to the building or site address, otherwise referred to as “received to arrive.”) The adopted modifications involve the following changes in calculating and reporting response times: ▪ Calculating response time from the time the call was received in the Communications Center to the time that the first unit arrived on scene, or the “received-to-arrive” time. ▪ Elimination of the normalization adjustments of response times for CFS from the Eastern Territories, which was used to account for geographic and land use conditions that tend to extend response times relative to times in the older areas of the city. ▪ Include false burglary alarms CFS in Priority 2 calculation. ▪ Increase the average response time threshold for Priority 1 CFS to 6 minutes. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Police Facilities Page 9 ▪ Increase the average response time threshold for Priority 2 CFS to 12 minutes. The GMP requires the PFFP to address the following issues for police services: ▪ Services reviewed must be consistent with the proposed phasing of the development project. ▪ The project must be able to demonstrate conformance with the Master Plan for the Chula Vista Civic Center (May 8, 1989), as the Master Plan relates to police facilities, as amended, unless stated otherwise in a development agreement. According to the Fiscal Year 2019 GMOC Annual Report, neither the Police Priority 1 nor the Police Priority 2 threshold standard was met. The report explained that a total of 73.72 percent of the Priority 1 calls were responded to within 7 minutes 30 seconds, which was 6.28 percent short of the “81 percent” threshold standard, and the average response time was six minutes and twelve seconds, which missed the “six minutes” threshold standard by twelve seconds. The Priority 2 average response time was 17 minutes 27 seconds, which exceeded the “12-minute average” threshold standard by five minutes and 27 seconds. The Police Department reported that they were not properly staffed to meet the threshold standards, and that they continue to work with the City Manager’s office to improve staffing levels. To add more sworn officers to the department, the GMOC recommended that the City implement the Police Department’s Long-Term Staffing Plan, as presented to City Council in October 2019. They also recommended that the City’s successful drone program be expanded into eastern Chula Vista. Inadequate staffing levels is a potential area of concern; however, this PFFP addresses facility threshold issues, not police department operations. As such, the cumulative mitigation measure for the Project’s impacts on police facilities is payment of the Public Facilities Development Impact Fee (PFDIF). Pursuant to state law, proceeds of the PFDIF may not be used for staffing or operations. The fee revenues may, however, be applied to capital improvements that serve to enhance operations and enable efficiencies that might mitigate staffing shortfalls to some extent. The PFDIF was last comprehensively updated by the Chula Vista City Council in November 2006. The PFDIF is adjusted approximately every October 1 pursuant to Ordinance 3050. The police component of the fee is shown in Table 3.1. The Project’s final PFDIF obligation will be subject to the payment of the fee at the rate in effect at the time of payment. At the current fee rate, the Project police fee obligation at Project buildout is $293,139. TABLE 3.1 PROJECT PUBLIC FACILITIES FEES FOR POLICE Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. Actual fee may be different and will be determined by the City at the time of payment. The PFDIF is subject to change as it is amended from time to time. Changes in the number of dwelling units or the amount of commercial acreage may affect the estimated fee. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Fire and Emergency Medical Services Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 10 The Chula Vista Fire Department (CVFD) provides fire and emergency medical services (EMS). American Medical Response provides EMS on a contract basis. The City also has countywide mutual and automatic aid agreements with surrounding agencies, should the need arise for their assistance. The purpose of the threshold standard is to maintain and improve the current level of fire protection and EMS in the City. The City Council adopted a Fire Facility, Equipment, and Deployment Master Plan (January 28, 2014) which recommended locations, staffing levels, and equipment for proposed new stations. CVMC Section 19.09.040.B.4 states that the threshold standard for fire and emergency medical services is: ▪ Emergency response: Properly equipped and staffed fire and medical units shall respond to calls throughout the City within seven minutes in at least 80 percent of the cases (measured annually). Note: For growth management purposes, response time includes dispatch, turnout and travel time to the building or site address. The City, at its sole discretion, unless stated otherwise in a development agreement, determines when a new fire station is required to achieve threshold service levels, meet specific project guidelines, or maintain general operational needs of the CVFD. The requirement to pay public facility impact fees for construction of fire stations to serve new development projects is the responsibility of the developers of said projects. For any given project, construction and equipping of a specific fire station may be a direct impact requiring mitigation, depending on the extent of the impact. A project that would cause response times to exceed threshold standards may be obligated to construct a station or dedicate land. The City may require the developer to enter into an agreement that guarantees the completion of the obligations. The CVFD currently serves the Project area. Table 4.1 lists the CVFD stations closest to the Project site. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Fire and Emergency Medical Services Page 11 TABLE 4.1 CURRENT AND PLANNED FIRE STATION FACILITIES IN PROJECT’S VICINITY a. Chula Vista Bayfront Master Plan and Port Master Plan Amendment Revised Draft EIR SCH#2005081077 (Station 11). The Fiscal Year 2019 GMOC Annual Report stated that Fire and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) complied with the growth management threshold standard of responding to calls within 7 minutes , 80 percent of the time; the City’s nine fire stations combined responded within 7 minutes, 82 percent of the time. Table 4 in the Fire and EMS questionnaire (Appendix B of the annual report) indicates that the response times for each of the four existing fire stations within the project’s facility , noted in the table above, complied with the threshold standard. CVFD Station 5, which is closest in proximity to the Project, responded within 7 minutes 86.3 percent of the time. Given the Project’s proximity to CVFD Station 5, the CVFD would be able to serve the Project within the existing threshold standard without compromising response times; therefore, Project impacts to service times would be less than significant. The Project’s design is subject to compliance with the requirements in the California Building Standards Commission California Fire Code. Project plans are reviewed and approved by CVFD staff, which would verify adequate emergency access, fire hydrant availability, and compliance with all applicable codes and standards. Compliance with the City’s permit process and Municipal Code requirements would ensure Project implementation would result in a less than significant impact to fire protection services. The PFDIF was last comprehensively updated by the Chula Vista City Council in November 2006. The PFDIF is adjusted approximately every October 1 pursuant to Ordinance 3050. The Project is subject to payment of the fee at the rate in effect at the time of payment. At the current fee rate, the Project’s fire fee obligation at Project buildout is $163,842. TABLE 4.2 PUBLIC FACILITIES FEES FOR FIRE/EMS FACILITIES Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Park Dedication and Improvements Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 12 The City provides public park and recreational facilities and programs through the Public Works and Community Services departments, which are responsible for the acquisition, development, and maintenance of parkland. All park development plans are reviewed by City staff and the park master plans are presented to the Parks and Recreation Commission for review. The Commission then makes recommendations to the City Council. Per Section 19.09.040.D.3 of the CVMC, the threshold standard is: Three acres of neighborhood and community parkland with appropriate facilities per 1,000 residents east of I-805. The existing and future parks are depicted in the Public Facilities and Services Element of the City’s General Plan, and as updated in the City’s Parks and Recreation Master Plan, last revised November 13, 2018. The plan provides guidance for planning, siting, and implementation of neighborhood and community parks. The Project will generate an estimated residential population of 368 west of I-805. Because the Project is west of I-805, the growth management threshold standard requiring three acres of parkland per 1,000 residents east of I-805 is not applicable. However, per the City’s Parkland Dedication Ordinance (PDO) (CVMC 17.10.040), the Project is required to dedicate three acres per 1,000 residents, as shown in Table 5.1. The standard is based on California Government Code Section 66477, also known as the Quimby Act, which allows a city to require, by ordinance, the dedication of land or payment of fees for park or recreational purposes or a combination of both. TABLE 5.1 QUIMBY ACT PARKLAND REQUIREMENTS Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019 All new development in Chula Vista is subject to the requirements in the City's Parkland Dedication Ordinance (PDO) in CVMC Chapter 17.10. The PDO establishes fees for parkland acquisition and development (PAD fees), sets standards for dedication, and establishes criteria for acceptance of parks and open space. Fees vary depending on the type of dwelling unit proposed. The PDO specifies a square footage of land area to be dedicated for each type. The Project’s 141 units are high-density multi-family units, which require 341 square feet of parkland per unit; the dedication obligation is calculated in Table 5.2. The PDO method is a slightly different approach to calculating the park acreage obligation than the Quimby Act requirement in Table 5.1. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Park Dedication and Improvements Page 13 TABLE 5.2 PARKLAND DEDICATION REQUIREMENTS BASED ON PARKLAND DEDICATION ORDINANCE STANDARDS Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019 CVMC Chapter 17.10, as amended, unless stated otherwise in a parks or development agreement, governs the financing of parkland and improvements. Included as part of the regulations are PAD fees established for the purpose of providing neighborhood and community parks. The PDO requires fees be paid to the City prior to approval of a final subdivision map, or in the case of a residential development that is not required to submit a subdivision of land, at the time of the final building permit application. Table 5.3 identifies the fees calculated for the development component of the PAD fees (applicable citywide), while Table 5.4 identifies the fees calculated for the parkland acquisition component of the PAD fees (applicable to areas west of Interstate 805). These fees are estimates only; actual fees will be based on PAD fee rates in effect at the time of payment and are dependent on the actual numbers of residential units filed on the subdivision of lands. Fees are also subject to change by the City Council. The development in-lieu fees may be used by the City to construct public parks or to satisfy the Project’s full parkland obligation. TABLE 5.3 PARK DEVELOPMENT COMPONENT FEES (DEVELOPMENT IN-LIEU COMPONENT ONLY) Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. TABLE 5.4 PARK ACQUISITION COMPONENT FEES (ACQUISITION IN-LIEU COMPONENT ONLY) Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 14 This section pertains to Civic Center, library, Corporation Yard, and administration which, together with police, fire, and recreation facilities (which are discussed separately above), comprise the facility components of the PFDIF. There are no adopted threshold standards for Civic Center, Corporation Yard, recreation or administration; therefore, no adequacy or service analysis is required. The City provides library services in three locations: 1) the Chula Vista Civic Center Library at Fourth Avenue and F Street; 2) the South Chula Vista Library at Fourth Avenue and Orange Avenue; and 3) the Otay Ranch Town Center in eastern Chula Vista. Section 19.09040.C.4 of the CVMC states that the threshold standard is the following: The city shall not fall below the citywide ratio of 500 gross square feet (GSF) of library space, adequately equipped and staffed, per 1,000 residents.2 Table 6.1 lists the current libraries serving the City. Based on Chula Vista’s 2019 population of 274,644 (according to the estimate by the California Department of Finance), the current service ratio is approximately 350 square feet per 1,000 residents. TABLE 6.1 CURRENT LIBRARY FACILITIES Source: 2019 GMOC Report 2. The GMOC threshold of 500 gross square feet (GSF) per 1,000 residents is stated in CVMC Section 19.09.040.C. Construction of library space is to be phased such that the City does not fall below this threshold. However, the Chula Vista PFDIF program uses a “service standard” of 600 GSF per 1,000, which is the target or desired standard to be achieved at buildout of the City. The Library Strategic Vision Plan recommends a range of 500 to 700 GSF. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Public Facilities Page 15 The Fiscal Year 2019 GMOC Annual Report stated that the threshold standard had not been met for 16 consecutive years, and that the current gross library floor area service ratio was 350 square feet per 1,000 residents, 150 square feet per 1,000 residents below the threshold standard. The ratio is projected to fall to 330 square feet per 1,000 residents in FY 2021 if planned branch library facilities are not constructed. Based on the Project’s projected population of 368, the Project will generate a demand for 178 gross square feet of additional library space. If not mitigated, this demand will contribute incrementally to the projected library services deficit. Payment of the PFDIF library component provides the required mitigation to allow the City to acquire land and construct and equip branch library facilities to serve this and other projects in this area. The City Council last updated the PFDIF on October 20, 2019. The PFDIF amount is adjusted approximately every October 1 pursuant to Ordinance 3050, which was adopted by the City Council on November 7, 2006. The PFDIF amount is subject to change as it is amended from time to time. The Project is subject to the payment of the PFDIF at the rates in effect at the time of payment. Table 6.2 shows the Project’s fee obligation at Project buildout for public facility components (except for police and fire protection, discussed separately above) using the current fee rate. TABLE 6.2 PFDIF FOR CIVIC CENTER, LIBRARY, CORPORATION YARD, RECREATION AND ADMINISTRATION Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Sewer Facilities Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 16 The City currently purchases capacity for wastewater treatment through the Metropolitan Wastewater Joint Powers Authority (Metro) system. Chula Vista oversees the construction, maintenance, and operation of the sewer collection facilities. The City Engineer is responsible for reviewing proposed developments and ensuring the necessary sewer facilities are provided with each development project. The sewer threshold standard was developed to maintain adequate, sanitary sewer collection and disposal systems for Chula Vista. Individual projects are required to provide necessary improvements consistent with the Chula Vista Wastewater Master Plan, dated May 2014, and to comply with all City engineering standards. The growth management threshold standard for sewer per Section 19.09.040.E.3 of the CVMC is: 1. Existing and projected facility sewage flows and volumes shall not exceed City engineering standards for the current system and for budgeted improvements, as set forth in the Subdivision Manual. 2. The City shall annually ensure adequate contracted capacity in the San Diego Metropolitan Sewer Authority or other means sufficient to meet the projected needs of development. Once a year, Chula Vista provides Metro3 with the City’s annual 12- to 18-month residential growth forecast, requesting an evaluation of Metro’s ability to accommodate the forecasted growth, and confirmation that the development projections are within the City’s purchased capacity rights. The information provided to the GMOC must include the following: ▪ Amount of current capacity now used or committed ▪ Ability of affected facilities to absorb forecast growth ▪ Evaluation of funding and site availability for projected new facilities ▪ Other relevant information The City will provide sanitary sewer service for the Project. The City operates and maintains its own sanitary collection system, which connects to the Metro wastewater treatment system. All wastewater generated within the Project will be conveyed to City sewer mains that discharge into the Metro sewer 3. The Metropolitan Wastewater Joint Powers Authority operates the Metropolitan Sewerage Sub-System, which treats the wastewater generated by 16 cities and districts in the region, including the City of Chula Vista. The Metro service area comprises 450 square miles with a population of over 2.2 million. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Sewer Facilities Page 17 interceptor. The wastewater is ultimately treated by the City of San Diego at the Point Loma Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP). The City is allocated approximately 20.9 million gallons per day (mgd) of capacity in the Metro WWTP, including about 4 mgd in reserve capacity rights. The City’s buildout flow is estimated at 20.76 mgd according to information provided by the City Engineer to the GMOC for their Fiscal Year 2019 Annual Report, indicating that there is currently adequate capacity rights to serve the sewer demands of this Project. PBS&J (now Atkins) prepared a supporting study for the Village 8 West and Village 9 Program EIR4 analyzing treatment plant capacity relative to land uses in the adopted 2005 General Plan. The study includes the increased densities of Village 8 West and Village 9, as well as the potential increased flows from the Bayfront Development Project. The study indicates the total future treatment capacity required in the cumulative condition may be as high as 32.5 mgd, leaving the City 11.6 mgd more than its present allocation. The Project’s 141 multi-family units will generate approximately 25,662 gpd based on 182 gallons per day per dwelling unit5. Theoretically, there is regional sewer treatment capacity available for purchase. The City, however, does not wish to buy more capacity than is needed to meet projected demands. The City will either purchase capacity as needed or suspend the issuance of building permits until the needed capacity is acquired. To finance the City’s purchase of additional treatment capacity from Metro when needed to accommodate future demand, project developers are required to pay the Sewer Capacity Charge, as estimated in Table 7.1, prior to final inspection. Table 7.1 summarizes the estimated Sewer Capacity Charge for the Project. The fee shown is as currently adopted and is subject to change by the City Council. Sewer Capacity Charges are adjusted annually on October 1. Notwithstanding payment of the fee, development may not occur without adequate sewer capacity as determined by the City Engineer. Building permits will not be issued if the City Engineer has determ ined that adequate sewer capacity does not exist. All development must comply with the CVMC, specifically Sections 19.09.040.E.3 and 13.14.030. TABLE 7.1 SEWER CAPACITY CHARGE Source: Form 5509, Development Checklist for Municipal Code Requirements, October 2019. EDU is Equivalent Dwelling Unit 4. Salt Creek Interceptor Technical Sewer Study for the South Otay Ranch (Village 8 West and Village 9), October 2010. 5. City of Chula Vista Master Fee Schedule, Bulletin 12-100. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Water Facilities Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 18 The Sweetwater Authority (SWA) has existing facilities in the vicinity of the Project site and will provide potable water service for the Project. The Project developer is required to meet the growth management threshold standards and provide all facilities needed to serve the Project as required by the SWA. The growth management threshold standards for water facilities are as follows (CVMC 19.09.040.C.3): 1. Adequate water supply must be available to serve new development. Therefore, developers shall provide the City with a service availability letter from the appropriate water district for each project. 2. The City shall annually provide the San Diego County Water Authority, the Sweetwater Authority and the Otay Municipal Water District with the City’s annual five-year residential growth forecast and request that they provide an evaluation of their ability to accommodate forecasted growth. Replies should address the following: i. Water availability to the City, considering both short- and long-term perspectives. ii. Identify current and projected demand, and the amount of current capacity, including storage capacity, now used or committed. iii. Ability of current and projected facilities to absorb forecasted growth. iv. Evaluation of funding and site availability for projected new facilities. v. Other relevant information the district(s) desire to communicate to the City and the Growth Management Oversight Commission (GMOC). The water supply planning documents of SWA, the San Diego County Water Authority, and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) identify the water supplies necessary to serve the demands of the Project, along with existing and other projected future users, as well as the actions necessary to develop these supplies. The 2015 SWA Urban Water Management Plan states annual water supplies available to SWA are anticipated to range from 22,488 acre-feet to 26,218 acre-feet between 2020 and 2040. The Project’s annual potable water demand is estimated at 55.85 acre-feet, which represents less than 0.1 percent of the water supply totals forecast under all water year scenarios between 2020 and 2040. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan Water Facilities Page 19 In conjunction with its Capital Improvement Program (CIP), the SWA facilitates design and construction of facilities and collects an appropriate share of the cost from project developers, through collection of capacity fees charged to water meter purchases. Capital improvement projects typically include supply sources, pumping facilities, operational storage, terminal storage, and transmission mains. The capacity charge as of July 1, 2018, is $5,778, which is payable to the SWA. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Drainage Facilities Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 20 The City Public Works Department is responsible for ensuring safe and efficient stormwater drainage systems are provided concurrently with development to protect the residents and properties within the City. City staff is required to review individual projects to ensure improvements are consistent with the City’s drainage master plan and that the projects comply with all City engineering drainage standards. The growth management threshold standards for drainage facilities are as follows (CVMC 19.09.040.F.3): a. Storm water flows and volumes shall not exceed City engineering standards and shall comply with current local, state and federal regulations, as may be amended from time to time. b. The GMOC shall annually review the performance of the City’s storm drain system, with respect to the impacts of new development, to determine its ability to meet the goal and objective for drainage. The Project area currently drains to an existing 12-foot-wide by 10-foot-deep double culvert that runs underneath the site. The Project’s Stormwater Quality Management Plan (SWQMP) outlines construction and non-stormwater discharge, erosion control, sediment controls (fiber rolls, gravel bags), source controls (construction waste management, litter control, stockpile pollutants), and best management practices (BMPs), which will be required to be integrated into Project design. The SWQMP is required to be reviewed and approved by the City Engineer. According to the draft SWQMP, on-site stormwater runoff would flow toward existing storm drain inlets across the site, where the stormwater would be directed toward water quality detention vaults for treatment. Additionally, three proposed sub-grade proprietary BMPs (Bio Clean Modular Wetlands System) or equivalent would be included for water quality treatment. All stormwater BMPs and onsite storm drains and pipes would be privately maintained and are not public facilities. After undergoing treatment via the proposed BMPs, Project site runoff would be connected to the existing culvert. All on-site improvements and connections to existing drainage facilities will be provided by the Project developer. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Public Facilities Finance Plan 10.0 Air Quality and climate protection Page 21 The City is responsible for protecting air quality in accordance with applicable federal, state, and regional air quality regulations and programs. One of the objectives stated in the Growth Management Element (GME) of the City’s General Plan is to be proactive in planning to meet federal and state air quality standards, and this objective is incorporated into the element’s action program. The Growth Management ordinance adopted by the City Council requires air quality improvement plans (AQIPs) for major development projects (50 residential units or commercial/industrial projects with equivalent air quality impacts) (CVMC Section 19.09.080.B The AQIP is to include an assessment of how a project has been designed to reduce emissions, and identification of mitigation measures. The City Council adopted the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Reduction Plan on November 14, 2000. The plan included implementing measures regarding transportation and energy-efficient land use planning and building construction measures for new development. In this plan, it was recognized the City’s efforts to reduce CO2 emissions from new development are directly related to energy conservation and air quality efforts. As a result, the City initiated a pilot study to identify and evaluate the relative effectiveness and costs of applying various design and energy conservation features in new development projects. The original CO2 Reduction Plan was revised to incorporate new climate mitigation (2008) and adaptation (2011) measures to strengthen the City’s climate action efforts and to facilitate numerous community co- benefits such as utility savings, better air quality, reduced traffic congestion, local economic development, and improved quality of life. The growth management threshold standard is as follows (CVMC 19.09.050.A.3): The City shall pursue a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target consistent with appropriate City climate change and energy efficiency regulations in effect at the time of project application for SPA plans or for the following, subject to the discretion of the Development Services Director: a. Residential projects of 50 or more residential dwelling units; b. Commercial projects of 12 or more acres (or equivalent square footage); c. Industrial projects of 24 or more acres (or equivalent square footage); or d. Mixed use projects of 50 equivalent dwelling units or greater. The City also provides the San Diego Air Pollution Control District (APCD) with a copy of its annual residential growth forecast, and the APCD reports on overall regional and local air quality conditions, the status of regional air quality improvement implementation efforts under the regional air quality strategy and related federal and state programs, and the effect of those efforts/pr ograms on the City and local planning and development activities. 676 Moss Street, Chula Vista, California Air Quality and climate protection Public Facilities Finance Plan Page 22 The air quality and greenhouse emissions analysis conducted for the Project identifies construction- related and operational emissions. The analysis determined that, without mitigation, the Project would result in significant construction-related impacts. Therefore, prior to the issuance of any demolition or grading permit, the Project applicant shall demonstrate to the satisfaction of the City Building Department that all off-road construction equipment to be used on the Project site in excess of 50 horsepower will be equipped with engines that meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Tier IV Final off-road engine emission standards. The analysis did not identify any significant operational impacts. 676 Moss Street – Proposed General Plan Amendments MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 2020 Prepared By: KOSMONT COMPANIES 1601 N. Sepulveda Blvd. #382 Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 Telephone: (424) 297-1070 www.kosmont.com Prepared For: SLF-Moss Street, LLC Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Background & Purpose ............................................................................................ 4 1.2 City Net Fiscal Impact Model .................................................................................... 4 1.3 Project Description ................................................................................................... 5 1.4 Summary of Findings - Proposed Project ................................................................. 5 1.5 Summary of Findings - Existing Industrial ................................................................. 6 1.6 Summary of Findings - Expected Industrial .............................................................. 7 2.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Background & Purpose ............................................................................................ 9 2.2 City’s Fiscal Impact Model ........................................................................................ 9 2.3 Proposed Project ...................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Existing Industrial ..................................................................................................... 9 2.5 Expected Industrial ................................................................................................. 10 2.6 Project Location ..................................................................................................... 12 3.0 Adjustments to Fiscal Model ......................................................................................... 15 3.1 Property Tax - Growth in Assessed Valuation ........................................................ 15 3.2 Property Tax - Tax Rate ......................................................................................... 18 3.3 Real Property Transfer Tax .................................................................................... 19 3.4 Cumulative Adjustments ......................................................................................... 20 3.5 Additional Adjustments ........................................................................................... 20 4.0 Fiscal and Economic Impacts ....................................................................................... 21 4.1 Summary of Findings - Proposed Project ............................................................... 21 4.2 Summary of Findings - Existing Industrial ............................................................... 22 4.3 Summary of Findings - Expected Industrial ............................................................ 23 5.0 Appendices ..................................................................................................................... 24 Appendix A: Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Proposed Project ...................... 25 Appendix B: Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Existing Industrial Use .............. Appendix C: Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Expected Industrial Use ............ Appendix D: Recent Industrial Sales Comparables .......................................................... MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 3 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Table 1: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Proposed Project ................................................... 6 Table 2: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Existing Industrial & Proposed Project ................... 7 Table 3: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Expected Industrial & Proposed Project ................. 8 Table 4: Industrial Condominium Residual Land Value .............................................................11 Table 5: NAR Information on Tenure in Previous Home (6 Year Median for Townhomes) ........16 Table 6: Assessed Valuation with 3.5% Yr/Yr Growth & 8 Year Turnover Adjustment ...............17 Table 7: Property Tax Rate Adjustment ....................................................................................18 Table 8: Real Property Transfer Tax Adjustment .......................................................................19 Table 9: Cumulative Adjustments to Fiscal Model .....................................................................20 Table 10: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Proposed Project ................................................21 Table 11: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Existing Industrial & Proposed Project ................22 Table 12: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Expected Industrial & Proposed Project ..............23 Figure 1: Map of San Diego Region & City of Chula Vista .........................................................12 Figure 2: Map of Chula Vista Area & Site ..................................................................................13 Figure 3: Aerial Site Map ...........................................................................................................14 Figure 4: San Diego / Chula Vista Home Prices (1/1987 7/2019 - 3.77% Compounded) ........16 Figure 5: San Diego / Chula Vista Home Prices (8/2009 7/2019 - 4.96% Compounded) ........17 MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 4 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 1.0 1.1 Background & Purpose SLF-Moss Street, LLC Shopoff is currently pursuing entitlements to facilitate the development of a residential community () on an approximately 6.9-acre corner of the intersection of Industrial Boulevard and Moss Street in Chula Vista, California . In order to assist the City the proposed Project, the City requested that Shopoff estimates the fiscal impacts of the proposed Project to the City. Shopoff retained Kosmont Companies to prepare Analysis In general: Kosmont utilized fiscal impact model to prepare this Analysis. Kosmont evaluated three potential scenarios for the Site: o Proposed Project - Reuse of the Site with the Proposed Project o Existing Industrial - Continued use of the Site as-is o Expected Industrial - Continued use of the Site as-is with an increase in assessed value through a sale of the Site Kosmont made adjustments to the model to account for property turnover and reassessment of property taxes upon turnover / resale that will occur within the Project. The adjusted fiscal model estimates that the Project will be revenue positive during 17 of the first 20 years of Project operation. From year 10 on, the Project will be revenue positive for the City, and net positive revenues are projected to grow annually. Municipal revenues from the Project will support the cost of providing municipal services to it, and generate net new fiscal revenues of over $300,000 over the first 20 of operation. The existing industrial use on the Property is revenue negative for the City. 1.2 City Net Fiscal Impact Model This Analysis summarizes outputs from a fiscal impact model prepared for the City by a third party ly prepares fiscal impact models, and evaluates net fiscal impacts derived therefrom, the Fiscal Model summarized herein was not prepared by Kosmont. A separate analysis of the estimated net fiscal impacts, as well as overall economic benefits as cal model was prepared and is separately available. Fiscal Model utilized herein that there are a number of elements of the Fiscal Model that likely understate potential City revenues, and overstate potential City expenditures associated with the proposed Project. Two of these elements - the calculation of property tax revenue and real property transfer tax revenue are addressed herein. The balance of elements that are expected to warrant modification are not within the Fiscal Model was MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 5 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL that modification is likely warranted is based on potentially incongruous outputs from the Fiscal Model. Given access to the underlying calculations utilized in the Fiscal Model, Kosmont could provide additional analysis and commentary. 1.3 Project Description The Site is currently utilized for a variety of industrial uses including heavy equipment rentals, shipping container repair and storage, and sandblasting material and equipment suppliers. The proposed Project would redevelop the Site with approximately 141 attached residential dwelling units ranging in size from approximately 1,175 to 1,950 square feet. The total value of the Project is estimated to be approximately $77 million. 1.4 Summary of Findings - Proposed Project Based on the unmodified Fiscal Model, the Project is estimated to generate between approximately ($17,000) to $30,000 per year in net City municipal revenues during the first 20 years of Project operation. Based on the Fiscal Model with the minor adjustments discussed in detail herein, the Project is estimated to generate between approximately ($4,000) to $71,000 per year in net City municipal revenues in the first 20 years of Project operation, generating a cumulative total of approximately $300,000 in net municipal revenues over the same period. Additional details follow in Table 1 below, and all assumptions can be found in Appendix A: Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Project. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 6 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Table 1: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Proposed Project Source: Kosmont (2020) 1.5 Summary of Findings - Existing Industrial This Analysis includes an evaluation of the existing industrial uses on the Site. Based on the Fiscal Model, the Existing Industrial use on the Property is revenue negative for the City, and projected to be revenue negative in every year of the period evaluated. A summary of estimated net City revenues under the Existing Industrial use follows in Table 2 below; a comparison with estimated revenues generated by the proposed Project is also included for reference. All assumptions can be found in Appendix B: Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Existing Industrial Use. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 7 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Table 2: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Existing Industrial & Proposed Project Source: 2020) 1.6 Summary of Findings - Expected Industrial An evaluation of the continued existing industrial uses on the Site but with an adjustment to assessed valuation through a sale of the Site is also included herein. Absent the proposed Project, given the existing improvements on the Site, and the existing revenues generated therefrom, it is expected that the current market value of the Site, as-is, makes industrial redevelopment on the Site financially infeasible. Thus, absent the proposed Project, the most likely outcome for the Site is continued use of the existing improvements. Based on the Fiscal Model, given an increase in taxable assessed valuation through a sale, the Expected Industrial scenario would be moderately revenue positive for the City. A summary of estimated net City revenues under the Expected Industrial use as a result of a step up in assessed MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 8 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL valuation through a sale follows in Table 3 below; a comparison with estimated revenues generated by the proposed Project is also included for reference. All assumptions can be found in Appendix C: Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Expected Industrial Use. Table 3: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Expected Industrial & Proposed Project MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 9 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 2.1 Background & Purpose Shopoff is currently pursuing entitlements to facilitate the development of a residential community on an approximately 6.9-acre Site in Chula Vista, California. In order to assist the City of the proposed Project, the City requested that Shopoff impact model that estimates the fiscal impacts of the proposed Project to the City. Shopoff retained Kosmont to prepare this Analysis. 2.2 The Analysis herein is based on a fiscal impact model developed on behalf of, and for the City by Fiscal Model estimates fiscal impacts based on land use (i.e. single family residential, multi-family residential, commercial, industrial, office, hotel), employee count (i.e. commercial, industrial, office, or hotel land uses), dwelling unit count (i.e. single family residential or multi-family residential land uses) and assessed value of the scenario. scenarios evaluated herein are included in the appendices. 2.3 Proposed Project The proposed Project would redevelop the Site with approximately 141 residential dwelling units ranging in size from approximately 1,175 to 1,950 square feet. Units range from two to four bedrooms and all have two car garages. All units are three stories in height, approximately 50 have rooftop decks, and units are in a total of 18 three, four, five, and six plex row townhome buildings. The development also includes a central community green with BBQ, tot lot, seating, and shade structure amenities. The total assessed value of the Project upon completion and sale to individual homeowners is estimated to initially be approximately $77 million. 2.4 Existing Industrial The approximately 6.9-acre Site is currently developed with several buildings totaling approximately 37,000 square feet. The Site is currently utilized for a variety of industrial uses including heavy equipment rentals, shipping container repair and storage, and sandblasting material and equipment suppliers. As of the 2019 tax year the Site and improvements thereon had an assessed value of $3,946,18 . businesses on the Site support 38 employees. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 10 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 2.5 Expected Industrial Kosmont evaluated the potential market value of the Site with the existing improvements. Kosmont also evaluated the local industrial real estate market and concluded that redevelopment of the Site with industrial condominiums represents the highest and best use of the Site that conforms with the current zoning for the Site. Kosmont then evaluated the supportable residual land value of the Site for redevelopment with industrial condominiums. Based on this evaluation, it redevelopment of the Site with industrial condominiums could support. As such, Kosmont expects that absent the proposed Project, the Site would likely sell to an investor or investor / user that would elect to maintain the existing improvements on the Site, and the revenues generated therefrom. Additional discussion follows below. Economic Value of Site & Existing Improvements Based on rent roll and profit and loss statements reviewed by Kosmont, the buildings and lot area that comprise the Site are leased to four tenants that generate approximately $450,000 to $475,000 in net annual income (EBITDA). U.S. Cap Rate Survey for the Second Half 2019 (Advance Review) for Class C value-add properties (generally the lowest quality and riskiest investment) in the San Diego market provides market capitalization rates of 7.0% to 8.0% for this product type ual income, and a 7.0% to 8.0% capitalization rate, the expected value of the Site and improvements, as-is, would range from $5,625,000 ($450,000 / .08) to $6,785,714 ($475,000 / .07). square feet of improvements, this is equal to approximately $152 to $183 per square foot of building area. It should be noted that the existing tenants also utilize the surface / lot area of the Site for their operations, and thus likely ascribe value not only to the buildings on the Site, but also the lot area. Note: If an investor considered the property to be superior to a Class C value- add property, and ascribed a lower capitalization rate, it would serve to increase the value of the Site and existing Improvements. Residual Land Value of Site Redeveloped with Industrial Condominiums A review of recent industrial property sales in the area indicated that highest value per square foot of industrial building area was achieved by industrial condominium product (generally $200 to $205 per square foot, please see Appendix D: Recent Industrial Sales Comparables). This product type is reasonably similar in construction cost to other industrial product but has a demonstrated ability to command a premium in sales price versus other industrial product. To evaluate the supportable residual land value for industrial condominiums Kosmont evaluated estimated construction costs, and potential net sales revenues from such product. Details of this evaluation follow in Table 4 below. For reference, this analysis was based on an analogous development located at 3513 3523 Main Street in the City. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 11 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Table 4: Industrial Condominium Residual Land Value In summary, it was assumed that the 6.91 acre Site could yield an FAR of 0.40, or 120,400 square feet of building area, the estimated cost of construction would range from approximately $19.3 to $24.1 million, and support a residual land value of approximately negative $2.9 million to $5.1 million, with the higher end based on a potentially aggressive sales price of $225 per square foot. Thus, based on this analysis, redevelopment of the Site is expected to yield a maximum supportable value of approximately $5.1 million, while the economic value of the Site with the existing improvements, as-is, is estimated to support a value of approximately $5.6 to $6.8 million. Based on this analysis it is Kosmont’s conclusion that absent the proposed Project, the Site would likely be sold at a value of approximately $6.5 to $7.0 million, and the existing uses would continue on the Site for the foreseeable future. Given these conclusions, in the Expected Industrial scenario Kosmont utilized an assessed value of $7.0 million, and the same estimated employee count as in the Existing Industrial scenario of 38 employees. Site Work 16.00$ /SF 301,000 SF 4,816,000$ Vertical Improvements 80.00 /SF 120,400 SF 9,632,000 Soft Costs 25% of Total 19,264,000$ LS 4,816,000 Total Development Cost - Low 19,264,000$ Site Work 20.00$ /SF 301,000 SF 6,020,000$ Vertical Improvements 90.00 /SF 120,400 SF 10,836,000 Soft Costs 30% of Total 24,080,000$ LS 7,224,000 Total Development Cost - High 24,080,000$ Revenue (Low) 200.00$ /SF 120,400 SF 24,080,000$ Less: Development Cost (High) 200.00 /SF 120,400 SF (24,080,000) Less: Required Profit (High) 12% of Sales 24,080,000$ LS (2,889,600) Residual Land Value - Low (2,889,600)$ Revenue (High) 225.00$ /SF 120,400 SF 27,090,000$ Less: Development Cost (Low) 160.00 /SF 120,400 SF (19,264,000) Less: Required Profit (Low) 10% of Sales 27,090,000$ LS (2,709,000) Residual Land Value - High 5,117,000$ Development Cost - Low Residual Land Value - Low Development Cost - High Residual Land Value - High MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 12 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 2.6 Project Location A map illustrating the location of the City within the San Diego County region follows in Figure 1, a map illustrating the location of the Site within the City follows in Figure 2, and an aerial map of the Site and surrounding neighborhood is provided in Figure 3. Figure 1: Map of San Diego Region & City of Chula Vista Source: ESRI (2020) MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 13 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Figure 2: Map of Chula Vista Area & Site Source: ESRI (2020) Site MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 14 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Figure 3: Aerial Site Map Source: ESRI (2020) MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 15 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL that there are a number of elements of the Fiscal Model that likely understate potential City revenues, and overstate potential City expenditures associated with the proposed Project. Two of these elements - the calculation of property tax revenue and real property transfer tax revenue are addressed herein. 3.1 Property Tax - Growth in Assessed Valuation The Fiscal Model assumes that property tax growth associated with the Project will be equal to 2.0% per year based on statutory limits pursuant to Proposition 13. However, the Project includes multiple townhomes, each of which will be resold at varying points in time, that will trigger property tax reassessments based on market values at the time of each sale. As a result of this unit turnover, while aggregate assessed value may lag market value, property tax revenue growth is expected to generally track market value growth. e the lag between assessed value and market value (i.e. if the original buyer resells in year six versus year seven), and the rate of turnover (i.e. how many dwelling units are resold in a given year) determines how closely assessed values track market values. 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers suggests a median tenure of six years for townhome owners. Available information on historic home price growth in San Diego, and Chula Vista markets suggests an average compound annual growth rate in home prices of 3.77% between roughly 1987 and 2019, and 4.96% between roughly 2009 and 2019. Note: Each growth rate is based on growth from the first peak in the data set to most recent trough in the data set to provide a conservative (low) value on available datasets. Time horizons were based on data available and were not tailored by Kosmont. Summary illustrations of information reviewed by Kosmont follow in Table 5, Figure 4, and Figure 5 below. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 16 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Table 5: NAR Information on Tenure in Previous Home (6 Year Median for Townhomes) Source: Exhibit 6-23 from NAR 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers Figure 4: San Diego / Chula Vista Home Prices (1/1987 7/2019 - 3.77% Compounded) MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 17 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Figure 5: San Diego / Chula Vista Home Prices (8/2009 7/2019 - 4.96% Compounded) Based on information reviewed and summarized above, Kosmont analyzed the potential growth in assessed valuation and property tax revenue associated with the Project based on an annual average market home price growth rate of 3.50% (versus 3.77% and 4.96% in the charts above), a median tenure of eight years (versus six in the NAR data), and the assumption that it will take eight years for the rate of unit turnover stabilize. The results of this analysis follow in Table 6 below. Table 6: Assessed Valuation with 3.5% Yr/Yr Growth & 8 Year Turnover Adjustment Source: Kosmont (2020) MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 18 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 3.2 Property Tax - Tax Rate The Fiscal Model assumes that the City receives 16.11% of the base 1.0% property tax rate. 16.174602% of the base 1.0% for the tax rate area within which the Project resides. The difference yields a marginal increase in property tax revenue to the City (initially approximately $500 per year, and increasing thereafter). The results of this analysis follow in Table 7 below. Table 7: Property Tax Rate Adjustment Source: 2020) MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 19 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 3.3 Real Property Transfer Tax The Fiscal Model appears to underestimate the amount of revenue the City will receive from real property transfer taxes. Each time Project units are resold the City will receive transfer taxes equal to $0.55 per $1,000 in unit value (0.055% or 0.00055). This is in addition to the estimated $42,000 in transfer tax revenue the City will receive associated with the initial sale of the townhomes. A summary of the estimated transfer tax revenues the City will receive from the Project follows in Table 8 below. Table 8: Real Property Transfer Tax Adjustment Source: 2020) MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 20 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 3.4 Cumulative Adjustments A summary of the cumulative impact of the adjustments discussed above is provided in Table 9 below. Table 9: Cumulative Adjustments to Fiscal Model Source: 2020) 3.5 Additional Adjustments As previously introduced, there are additional elements of the Fiscal Model that are expected to warrant access to underlying calculations within the Fiscal Model was restricted, and Kosmont could only on is likely warranted is based on potentially incongruous outputs from the Fiscal Model. Given access to the underlying calculations utilized in the Fiscal Model, Kosmont could provide additional analysis and commentary. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 21 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 4.1 Summary of Findings - Proposed Project Based on the unmodified Fiscal Model, the Project is estimated to generate between approximately ($17,000) to $30,000 per year in net City municipal revenues during the first 20 years of Project operation. Based on the Fiscal Model with minor adjustments discussed herein, the Project is estimated to generate between approximately ($4,000) to $71,000 per year in net City municipal revenues in the first 20 years of Project operation, generating a cumulative net total of approximately $300,000 over the same period. Additional details follow in Table 10 below. included in Appendix A. Table 10: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Proposed Project Source: 2020) MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 22 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 4.2 Summary of Findings - Existing Industrial Based on the Fiscal Model, the Existing Industrial use on the Property is revenue negative for the City, and projected to be revenue negative in every year of the period evaluated. A summary of estimated net City revenues under the Existing Industrial use follows in Table 11 below. A comparison with estimated revenues generated by the proposed Project is also included for reference. dditional details and underlying assumptions in the unmodified Fiscal Model are included in Appendix B. Table 11: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Existing Industrial & Proposed Project Source: 2020) Note: The only adjustment to the Fiscal Model for the Existing Industrial use is the increase in the property tax rate (from 16.11% to approximately 16.17% of 1% of assessed valuation). The other two adjustments (property turnover, and real property transfer tax) are not considered applicable to Existing Industrial use. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 23 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 4.3 Summary of Findings - Expected Industrial Based on the Fiscal Model, the Expected Industrial scenario is projected to generate net revenues of approximately $155,000 over the initial twenty years subsequent to a sale of the Site. A summary of estimated net City revenues under the Expected Industrial scenario follows in Table 12 below. A comparison with estimated revenues generated by the proposed Project is also underlying assumptions in the unmodified Fiscal Model are included in Appendix C. Table 12: Summary of Net Fiscal Benefits of Expected Industrial & Proposed Project Source: Note: The only adjustments to the Fiscal Model for the Expected Industrial use are the increase in the property tax rate (from 16.11% to approximately 16.17% of 1% of assessed valuation), and the inclusion of real property transfer tax in year 1. Property turnover is not considered applicable to Expected Industrial scenario. MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 24 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL 25 SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Appendix A Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Proposed Project 1 The spreadsheet is ready to accept unit counts and valuation of project costs. 2 TABS: COMPLETE SHADED AREAS AS INSTRUCTED ON EACH TAB 2a TAB: Property Tax Analysis Enter unit counts in yellow highlighted cells Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Commercial Industrial Office Hotel 2b Input a Constructed Assessed Value 2c 2d TAB: Sales Tax Analysis - Input Square Footage and Rates on Sheet 2e TAB: Expenditure - Police & Fire Input Acres by Land Use In Shaded Areas 2f TAB: Police & Fire Costs - Dev - No input; shows costs and phase in of Fire Station/S 2g TAB: Police & Fire Detal Calcs (call volume by Land Use) 2h TAB: Master Plan Services 2i TAB: Maintenance Service Costs Input Lane Miles and Park Acres 3 TAB: Maintenance Service Costs - PS 3a Input the service count components listed (as applicable) 4 TAB: Analysis - Model FY 4a 4b 4c 5 TAB: Population Factor - Prepopulated TAB: EXH 1 - Revenue Per Capita (Data supporting Fiscal Impact - Locked) TAB: EXH 2 - Expenditures Per Capita (Data supporting Fiscal Impact - Locked) TAB: SUMMARY-EXP (Reconciles Published Budget to Base for Fiscal Model) 6 Print each Tab when done Input on Percentage Complete row for each section - a factor of how much of Instructional Guide This table links to other input tables and calculates the fiscal impact on If the project has a hotel, the room counts per hotel need to be input to Also, an absorption % impact factor needs to be entered on realizing the 26 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Single Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Multi-Family Residential 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 Subtotal (Per Capita)395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 Employment Population 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Totals 415 415 415 415 415 415 415 415 415 Single Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Multi-Family Residential 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 Totals 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 Hotel 1 - # rooms - - - - - - - - - Hotel 2 - # rooms - - - - - - - - - Totals - - - - - - - - - Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average*154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$ 174.46$ Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned*142.10$ 144.23$ 146.39$ 148.59$ 150.82$ 153.08$ 155.38$ 157.71$ 160.07$ Average Hotel Occupancy*77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy*0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% Absorption Rate 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV 124,104$ 126,586$ 129,118$ 131,700$ 134,334$ 137,021$ 139,761$ 142,556$ 145,408$ Sales and Use Tax Per Capita 49,561 47,880 47,739 47,628 47,469 47,315 47,166 47,022 48,432 Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita 6,093 5,870 5,881 5,905 5,929 5,951 5,973 6,007 6,187 Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific 59,600 60,856 62,137 63,445 64,778 66,138 67,525 68,940 70,383 Franchise Fees Per Capita 17,065 17,211 17,387 17,556 17,721 17,893 18,047 18,209 18,755 Other Taxes Per Capita 15,750 15,489 15,454 15,436 15,418 15,401 15,386 15,334 15,794 Subtotal Tax Revenues 272,172 273,891 277,716 281,670 285,649 289,720 293,859 298,068 304,960 Other Revenues Per Capita 16,698 17,396 17,580 17,765 17,950 18,136 18,271 18,433 18,986 Licenses and Permits Per Capita 2,254 2,260 2,267 2,275 2,284 2,293 2,302 2,312 2,382 Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita 1,772 1,777 1,783 1,789 1,796 1,803 1,810 1,818 1,873 Use of Money & Property Per Capita 4,286 4,298 4,312 4,326 4,342 4,360 4,378 4,397 4,529 Charges for Services No Forecast - - - - - - - - - Intergovernmental Per Capita 3,054 3,062 3,072 3,083 3,094 3,106 3,119 3,133 3,227 Subtotal Other Revenues 28,063 28,793 29,014 29,238 29,466 29,697 29,881 30,095 30,997 Total General Fund Revenues 300,235$ 302,685$ 306,730$ 310,909$ 315,115$ 319,417$ 323,740$ 328,163$ 335,957$ General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita 3,809$ 3,857$ 3,907$ 3,959$ 4,013$ 4,068$ 4,125$ 4,184$ 4,245$ Community Development (20%)Per Capita 897 908 920 932 945 958 972 986 1,000 Public Works/Engineering Per Capita 1,367 1,413 1,427 1,441 1,453 1,466 1,481 1,492 1,506 PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 Building Management System 4.10 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 Parks Management System 15.68 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 Open Space Management System 6.72 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 Fleet Management System 3.73 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 General Govt Management System 0.65 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 78.28$ 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 Community Services Per Capita 10,835 10,973 11,115 11,263 11,415 11,573 11,735 11,903 12,076 Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific 148,546 157,153 163,760 170,538 177,614 184,897 192,536 200,130 205,134 Fire Services Project Specific 69,594 72,671 76,106 78,216 80,356 82,513 84,716 86,800 89,001 Animal Control Services Per Capita 4,031 4,082 4,135 4,190 4,247 4,305 4,366 4,428 4,492 Total Public Safety 222,171 233,906 244,001 252,944 262,216 271,716 281,618 291,359 298,627 Total General Fund Expenditures 270,524$ 282,502$ 292,816$ 301,985$ 311,487$ 321,226$ 331,376$ 341,369$ 348,899$ Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$29,711 $20,182 $13,914 $8,924 $3,628 ($1,810)($7,636)($13,206)($12,942) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 27 Year Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Subtotal (Per Capita) Employment Population Totals Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Totals Hotel 1 - # rooms Hotel 2 - # rooms Totals Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* Average Hotel Occupancy* Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) Absorption Rate Year General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV Sales and Use Tax Per Capita Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific Franchise Fees Per Capita Other Taxes Per Capita Subtotal Tax Revenues Other Revenues Per Capita Licenses and Permits Per Capita Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita Use of Money & Property Per Capita Charges for Services No Forecast Intergovernmental Per Capita Subtotal Other Revenues Total General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita Community Development (20%)Per Capita Public Works/Engineering Per Capita PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ Building Management System 4.10 Parks Management System 15.68 Open Space Management System 6.72 Fleet Management System 3.73 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 General Govt Management System 0.65 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 78.28$ Community Services Per Capita Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific Fire Services Project Specific Animal Control Services Per Capita Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 - - - - - - - - - 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 415 415 415 415 415 415 415 415 415 - - - - - - - - - 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 177.08$ 179.73$ 182.43$ 185.17$ 187.94$ 190.76$ 193.62$ 196.53$ 199.48$ 162.48$ 164.91$ 167.39$ 169.90$ 172.45$ 175.03$ 177.66$ 180.32$ 183.03$ 77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 148,316$ 151,282$ 154,308$ 157,394$ 160,542$ 163,753$ 167,028$ 170,368$ 173,775$ 49,885 51,382 52,923 54,511 56,146 57,831 59,566 61,352 63,193 6,373 6,564 6,761 6,964 7,173 7,388 7,610 7,838 8,073 71,855 73,356 74,888 76,450 78,043 79,669 81,326 83,017 84,742 19,318 19,898 20,495 21,109 21,743 22,395 23,067 23,759 24,472 16,268 16,756 17,259 17,777 18,310 18,859 19,425 20,008 20,608 312,015 319,238 326,633 334,205 341,957 349,894 358,021 366,342 374,863 19,556 20,142 20,747 21,369 22,010 22,670 23,351 24,051 24,773 2,453 2,527 2,603 2,681 2,761 2,844 2,929 3,017 3,108 1,929 1,987 2,046 2,108 2,171 2,236 2,303 2,372 2,444 4,665 4,805 4,949 5,098 5,251 5,408 5,570 5,738 5,910 - - - - - - - - - 3,324 3,424 3,527 3,632 3,741 3,854 3,969 4,088 4,211 31,927 32,885 33,872 34,888 35,935 37,013 38,123 39,267 40,445 343,942$ 352,123$ 360,505$ 369,093$ 377,891$ 386,907$ 396,144$ 405,609$ 415,308$ 4,308$ 4,372$ 4,439$ 4,507$ 4,617$ 4,731$ 4,847$ 4,967$ 5,091$ 1,015 1,030 1,045 1,062 1,087 1,114 1,142 1,170 1,199 1,518 1,541 1,564 1,588 1,627 1,667 1,708 1,750 1,794 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 10,646 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 6,297 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 5,698 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 31,445 12,254 12,438 12,627 12,822 13,135 13,459 13,790 14,131 14,482 210,262 215,518 220,906 226,429 232,090 237,892 243,839 249,935 256,184 91,167 93,902 96,720 99,621 102,610 105,688 108,859 112,124 115,488 4,559 4,627 4,697 4,770 4,886 5,007 5,130 5,257 5,387 305,988 314,048 322,323 330,820 339,586 348,587 357,828 367,316 377,059 356,528$ 364,874$ 373,444$ 382,244$ 391,497$ 401,004$ 410,761$ 420,780$ 431,070$ ($12,586)($12,751)($12,939)($13,151)($13,606)($14,097)($14,617)($15,171)($15,762)28 Year Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Subtotal (Per Capita) Employment Population Totals Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Totals Hotel 1 - # rooms Hotel 2 - # rooms Totals Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* Average Hotel Occupancy* Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) Absorption Rate Year General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV Sales and Use Tax Per Capita Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific Franchise Fees Per Capita Other Taxes Per Capita Subtotal Tax Revenues Other Revenues Per Capita Licenses and Permits Per Capita Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita Use of Money & Property Per Capita Charges for Services No Forecast Intergovernmental Per Capita Subtotal Other Revenues Total General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita Community Development (20%)Per Capita Public Works/Engineering Per Capita PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ Building Management System 4.10 Parks Management System 15.68 Open Space Management System 6.72 Fleet Management System 3.73 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 General Govt Management System 0.65 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 78.28$ Community Services Per Capita Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific Fire Services Project Specific Animal Control Services Per Capita Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 19 20 - - 395 395 395 395 20 20 415 415 - - 141 141 141 141 - - - - - - 202.47$ 205.50$ 185.77$ 188.56$ 77.1%77.1% 0.0%0.0% 10%10% 0%0% 21 22 177,251$ 180,796$ 65,089 67,041 8,315 8,565 86,501 88,295 25,206 25,962 21,226 21,863 383,588 392,523 25,516 26,281 3,201 3,297 2,517 2,592 6,087 6,270 - - 4,337 4,467 41,658 42,908 425,246$ 435,430$ 5,218$ 5,349$ 1,229 1,260 1,839 1,885 10,646 10,646 1,645 1,645 6,297 6,297 2,699 2,699 1,499 1,499 5,698 5,698 262 262 2,699 2,699 31,445 31,445 14,844 15,217 262,588 269,153 118,953 122,521 5,522 5,661 387,063 397,335 441,638$ 452,491$ ($16,391)($17,060)29 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units - - - - - - - - Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 - - - - - - - Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 Percentage Complete 100%100%100%100%100%100%100% Constructed Assessed Values 77,035,350$ $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 Total Cumulative Residents 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 Commercial Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Industrial Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Office Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Hotel Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ Inflation Factor 2.00%100.00%102.00%104.04%106.12%108.24%110.41%112.62% Total AV - Inflated $77,035,350 $78,576,057 $80,147,578 $81,750,530 $83,385,540 $85,053,251 $86,754,316 Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)$77,035,350 $78,576,057 $80,147,578 $81,750,530 $83,385,540 $85,053,251 $86,754,316 Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00%0.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated $77,035,350 $78,576,057 $80,147,578 $81,750,530 $83,385,540 $85,053,251 $86,754,316 Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem 1.00%770,354$ 785,761$ 801,476$ 817,505$ 833,855$ 850,533$ 867,543$ Total AV Tax Due to City 16.11%$124,104 $126,586 $129,118 $131,700 $134,334 $137,021 $139,761 30 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 114.87%117.17%119.51%121.90%124.34%126.82%129.36%131.95% $88,489,402 $90,259,190 $92,064,374 $93,905,662 $95,783,775 $97,699,451 $99,653,440 $101,646,508 $88,489,402 $90,259,190 $92,064,374 $93,905,662 $95,783,775 $97,699,451 $99,653,440 $101,646,508 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $88,489,402 $90,259,190 $92,064,374 $93,905,662 $95,783,775 $97,699,451 $99,653,440 $101,646,508 884,894$ 902,592$ 920,644$ 939,057$ 957,838$ 976,995$ 996,534$ 1,016,465$ $142,556 $145,408 $148,316 $151,282 $154,308 $157,394 $160,542 $163,753 31 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 16 17 18 19 20 - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 141 141 141 141 141 395 395 395 395 395 100%100%100%100%100% $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 $77,035,350 395 395 395 395 395 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 77,035,350$ 134.59%137.28%140.02%142.82%145.68% $103,679,438 $105,753,027 $107,868,088 $110,025,450 $112,225,959 $103,679,438 $105,753,027 $107,868,088 $110,025,450 $112,225,959 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $103,679,438 $105,753,027 $107,868,088 $110,025,450 $112,225,959 1,036,794$ 1,057,530$ 1,078,681$ 1,100,254$ 1,122,260$ $167,028 $170,368 $173,775 $177,251 $180,796 32 FY2019-20 ADOPTED FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST FY2027-28 FORECAST FY2028-29 FORECAST FY2029-30 FORECAST FY2030-31 FORECAST FY2031-32 FORECAST 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 POPULATION 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 352,165 357,226 CHANGE IN POPULATION 25,083 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 2.8 # of DU 8,958 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR 1,592 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 7,366 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS)- - - - - - - - - - - - - DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS)141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 - COMMERCIAL (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.91 INDUSTRIAL (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - OFFICE (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - HOTEL (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 882.52$ 975.90$ 1,032.44$ 1,075.85$ 1,120.38$ 1,166.86$ 1,214.71$ 1,264.90$ 1,314.79$ 1,347.66$ 1,381.35$ 1,415.88$ 1,451.28$ 1,487.56$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 952.71$ 1,053.52$ 1,114.56$ 1,161.42$ 1,209.49$ 1,259.67$ 1,311.33$ 1,365.51$ 1,419.36$ 1,454.85$ 1,491.22$ 1,528.50$ 1,566.71$ 1,605.88$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 4,167.10$ 4,608.01$ 4,875.01$ 5,079.96$ 5,290.22$ 5,509.72$ 5,735.66$ 5,972.62$ 6,208.19$ 6,363.40$ 6,522.48$ 6,685.55$ 6,852.68$ 7,024.00$ POLICE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 898.41$ 993.47$ 1,051.04$ 1,095.22$ 1,140.56$ 1,187.88$ 1,236.59$ 1,287.68$ 1,338.47$ 1,371.93$ 1,406.23$ 1,441.38$ 1,477.42$ 1,514.35$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 148,546$ 157,153$ 163,760$ 170,538$ 177,614$ 184,897$ 192,536$ 200,130$ 205,134$ 210,262$ 215,518$ 220,906$ 226,429$ EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 376.83$ 439.73$ 459.17$ 480.87$ 494.21$ 507.72$ 521.36$ 535.28$ 548.44$ 562.35$ 576.04$ 593.32$ 611.12$ 629.45$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 422.97$ 493.58$ 515.40$ 539.76$ 554.73$ 569.90$ 585.20$ 600.82$ 615.60$ 631.21$ 646.58$ 665.97$ 685.95$ 706.53$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,479.61$ 1,726.59$ 1,802.93$ 1,888.14$ 1,940.50$ 1,993.58$ 2,047.11$ 2,101.76$ 2,153.47$ 2,208.06$ 2,261.81$ 2,329.67$ 2,399.56$ 2,471.54$ FIRE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 294.89$ 344.12$ 359.33$ 376.32$ 386.75$ 397.33$ 408.00$ 418.89$ 429.20$ 440.08$ 450.79$ 464.32$ 478.24$ 492.59$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 69,594$ 72,671$ 76,106$ 78,216$ 80,356$ 82,513$ 84,716$ 86,800$ 89,001$ 91,167$ 93,902$ 96,720$ 99,621$ POPULATION PER DU FACTOR 33 POPULATION CHANGE IN POPULATION 2.8 # of DU FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS) DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS) - COMMERCIAL (ACRES) 6.91 INDUSTRIAL (ACRES) - OFFICE (ACRES) - HOTEL (ACRES) EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 882.52$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 952.71$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 4,167.10$ POLICE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 898.41$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 376.83$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 422.97$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,479.61$ FIRE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 294.89$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC POPULATION PER DU FACTOR FY2032-33 FORECAST FY2033-34 FORECAST FY2034-35 FORECAST FY2035-36 FORECAST FY2037-38 FORECAST FY2038-39 FORECAST FY2039-40 FORECAST 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 1,943 1,867 1,898 1,878 1,833 1,794 1,750 694 667 678 671 655 641 625 123 119 120 119 116 114 111 571 548 558 552 539 527 514 - - - - - - - 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,524.75$ 1,562.87$ 1,601.94$ 1,641.99$ 1,683.04$ 1,725.12$ 1,768.25$ 1,646.03$ 1,687.18$ 1,729.36$ 1,772.59$ 1,816.91$ 1,862.33$ 1,908.89$ 7,199.60$ 7,379.59$ 7,564.08$ 7,753.18$ 7,947.01$ 8,145.69$ 8,349.33$ 1,552.21$ 1,591.02$ 1,630.79$ 1,671.56$ 1,713.35$ 1,756.18$ 1,800.09$ 232,090$ 237,892$ 243,839$ 249,935$ 256,184$ 262,588$ 269,153$ 648.34$ 667.79$ 687.82$ 708.45$ 729.71$ 751.60$ 774.15$ 727.73$ 749.56$ 772.05$ 795.21$ 819.07$ 843.64$ 868.95$ 2,545.69$ 2,622.06$ 2,700.72$ 2,781.74$ 2,865.20$ 2,951.15$ 3,039.69$ 507.37$ 522.59$ 538.27$ 554.42$ 571.05$ 588.18$ 605.83$ 102,610$ 105,688$ 108,859$ 112,124$ 115,488$ 118,953$ 122,521$ 34 Table - Public Safety Costs by Land Use Dwelling Type Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CV / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU 62,993,374$ Single Family Units 123,906,773 36,084 3,434 4,854 16,667,871 14.957%50.55%31,844,897$ 883$ Multi-Family Units 103,105,371 27,814 3,707 22,467 83,283,023 74.735%42.07%26,498,793$ 953$ Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 15,176,274 936 16,214 518 8,405,596 7.543%6.19%3,900,407$ 4,167$ Industrial/Office Acres 2,915,398 834 3,496 882 3,081,488 2.765%1.19%749,277$ 898$ Citywide Total 245,103,815 Dwelling Type Calls for Service (CFS) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CFS / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CFS Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU $ 33,055,258 Single Family Units 3,893 53629 0.0725947 4854 352.3746952 14.800%61.137%20,208,875$ 376.83$ Multi-Family Units 2,161 26516 0.08148433 22466.6667 1830.681368 76.890%33.930%11,215,526$ 422.97$ 6,054 Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 267 936 0.28504274 518.417 147.7709996 6.207%4.190%1,384,916$ 1,479.61$ Industrial/Office Acres 47 834 0.05681055 881.513 50.07923974 2.103%0.744%245,942$ 294.89$ 314 6,368 (1)Calls for Service include all calls for service responded to by the Fire Department during a one-year period. (2) Existing development data is per General Plan Update Fiscal Model. (3) Future development data is per March 2006 PFDIF Update - Development Forecast. (4) SDF - Service Demand Factor Police Calls for Service by Land Use Fire Calls for Service by Land Use 35 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE HOUSEHOLD POPULATION EMPLOYEES EMPLOYMENT RESIDENT EQUIVALENT (.05) 2012 244,408 37,218 12,220 2013 249,110 37,934 12,456 2014 253,812 38,650 12,691 2015 258,514 39,366 12,926 2016 263,216 40,082 13,161 2017 267,917 40,798 13,396 2018 268,060 40,820 13,403 2019*271,411 41,330 13,571 2020 282,375 43,000 14,119 2021 287,195 43,734 14,360 2022 292,015 44,468 14,601 2023 296,835 45,201 14,842 2024 301,655 45,935 15,083 2025 306,475 46,669 15,324 2026 311,295 47,403 15,565 2027 316,115 48,137 15,806 2028 320,935 48,871 16,047 2029 325,755 49,605 16,288 2030 330,575 50,339 16,529 2031 335,395 51,073 16,770 2032 340,215 51,807 17,011 2033 342,066 52,089 17,103 2034 343,844 52,360 17,192 2035 345,651 52,635 17,283 2036 347,440 52,907 17,372 2037 349,185 53,173 17,459 2038 350,894 53,433 17,545 2039 352,560 53,687 17,628 2040 354,241 53,943 17,712 2041 355,895 54,195 17,795 2042 357,524 54,443 17,876 2043 359,126 54,687 17,956 2044 360,683 54,924 18,034 2045 362,220 55,158 18,111 2046 363,786 55,397 18,189 2047 365,344 55,634 18,267 * As of 01/01/2019 Per State of California Department of Finance, Chula Vista Population is 271,411. 36 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT Per Capita Weighted Average FY2019-20 FORECAST FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax 160.05$ 37,371,038 38,860,000 40,330,000 41,820,000 43,370,000 44,920,000 46,580,000 48,060,000 TOTAL 37,371,038 38,860,000 40,330,000 41,820,000 43,370,000 44,920,000 46,580,000 48,060,000 Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 128.95$ 35,447,600 34,830,000 35,310,000 35,810,000 36,270,000 36,730,000 37,190,000 37,650,000 3020 Franchise Fees 49.12$ 12,205,678 12,520,000 12,860,000 13,200,000 13,540,000 13,890,000 14,230,000 14,580,000 3030 Utility Taxes 21.05$ 5,733,423 5,800,000 5,860,000 5,920,000 5,980,000 6,040,000 6,100,000 6,120,000 3040 Business License Tax 6.60$ 1,614,643 1,874,650 1,874,650 1,894,650 1,924,650 1,944,650 1,964,650 1,914,650 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 16.33$ 4,357,922 4,270,000 4,350,000 4,440,000 4,530,000 4,620,000 4,710,000 4,810,000 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax 4.57$ 1,173,550 1,197,021 1,220,961 1,245,381 1,270,288 1,295,694 1,321,608 1,348,040 TOTAL 60,532,816 60,491,671 61,475,611 62,510,031 63,514,938 64,520,344 65,516,258 66,422,690 Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 0.68$ 175,300 178,806 182,382 186,030 189,750 193,545 197,416 201,365 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 2.40$ 616,455 628,784 641,360 654,187 667,271 680,616 694,228 708,113 3140 Regulatory Permits 3.14$ 806,170 822,293 838,739 855,514 872,624 890,077 907,878 926,036 3160 Other Permits 0.05$ 14,000 14,280 14,566 14,857 15,154 15,457 15,766 16,082 TOTAL 1,611,925 1,644,164 1,677,047 1,710,588 1,744,799 1,779,695 1,815,289 1,851,595 Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 2.36$ 605,439 617,548 629,899 642,497 655,347 668,454 681,823 695,459 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 1.15$ 294,000 299,880 305,878 311,995 318,235 324,600 331,092 337,714 3240 Parking Penalties 0.97$ 250,000 255,000 260,100 265,302 270,608 276,020 281,541 287,171 3250 Other Penalties 0.46$ 118,000 120,360 122,767 125,223 127,727 130,282 132,887 135,545 TOTAL 1,267,439 1,292,788 1,318,644 1,345,016 1,371,917 1,399,355 1,427,342 1,455,889 Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3.12$ 802,000 818,040 834,401 851,089 868,111 885,473 903,182 921,246 3310 Sale of Real Property -$ - - - - - - - - 3320 Sale of Personal Property 0.01$ 3,000 3,060 3,121 3,184 3,247 3,312 3,378 3,446 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 1.07$ 274,847 280,344 285,951 291,670 297,503 303,453 309,522 315,713 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3.98$ 1,022,250 1,042,695 1,063,549 1,084,820 1,106,516 1,128,647 1,151,220 1,174,244 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings 3.75$ 963,130 982,393 1,002,040 1,022,081 1,042,523 1,063,373 1,084,641 1,106,334 TOTAL 3,065,227 3,126,532 3,189,062 3,252,843 3,317,900 3,384,258 3,451,943 3,520,982 Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 2.89$ 742,346 757,193 772,337 787,784 803,539 819,610 836,002 852,722 3440 State Tax Sharing 0.89$ 228,246 232,811 237,467 242,216 247,061 252,002 257,042 262,183 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License F 99.97$ 23,130,251 24,190,000 25,130,000 26,080,000 27,060,000 28,050,000 29,120,000 30,050,000 3480 State Reimbursements 0.52$ 133,799 136,475 139,204 141,989 144,828 147,725 150,679 153,693 3500 Federal Grants 1.79$ 460,440 469,649 479,042 488,623 498,395 508,363 518,530 528,901 3580 Federal Reimbursements 0.03$ 7,233 7,378 7,525 7,676 7,829 7,986 8,146 8,308 3600 Other Agency Grants 0.01$ 2,000 2,040 2,081 2,122 2,165 2,208 2,252 2,297 3690 Other Agency Revenue 2.38$ 610,000 622,200 634,644 647,337 660,284 673,489 686,959 700,698 TOTAL 25,314,315 26,417,745 27,402,300 28,397,746 29,424,101 30,461,383 31,579,611 32,558,803 Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 5.15$ 1,321,991 1,348,431 1,375,399 1,402,907 1,430,966 1,459,585 1,488,777 1,518,552 3720 Document Fees 2.60$ 668,824 682,200 695,844 709,761 723,957 738,436 753,204 768,269 3730 Plan Checking Fees 0.10$ 25,000 25,500 26,010 26,530 27,061 27,602 28,154 28,717 3740 Inspection Fees 1.60$ 412,000 420,240 428,645 437,218 445,962 454,881 463,979 473,258 3750 Filing Fees 0.16$ 41,000 41,820 42,656 43,510 44,380 45,267 46,173 47,096 3770 Other Dev Fees 0.03$ 6,600 6,732 6,867 7,004 7,144 7,287 7,433 7,581 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 1.06$ 273,200 278,664 284,237 289,922 295,720 301,635 307,668 313,821 3830 Services to the Port District 4.19$ 1,075,678 1,097,192 1,119,135 1,141,518 1,164,348 1,187,635 1,211,388 1,235,616 3900 Recreation Program Fees 5.71$ 1,464,886 1,494,184 1,524,067 1,554,549 1,585,640 1,617,353 1,649,700 1,682,694 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 11.36$ 2,915,823 2,974,139 3,033,622 3,094,295 3,156,181 3,219,304 3,283,690 3,349,364 4300 Fees for Other Services 0.18$ 46,000 46,920 47,858 48,816 49,792 50,788 51,803 52,840 TOTAL 8,251,002 8,416,022 8,584,342 8,756,029 8,931,150 9,109,773 9,291,968 9,477,808 Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 0.44$ 113,975 116,255 118,580 120,951 123,370 125,838 128,354 130,921 4420 Transit Reimbursements 0.27$ 70,000 71,400 72,828 74,285 75,770 77,286 78,831 80,408 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 0.01$ 1,800 1,836 1,873 1,910 1,948 1,987 2,027 2,068 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 7.31$ 1,876,001 1,913,521 1,951,791 1,990,827 2,030,644 2,071,257 2,112,682 2,154,935 4450 CIP Reimbursements 20.80$ 5,341,549 5,448,380 5,557,348 5,668,495 5,781,864 5,897,502 6,015,452 6,135,761 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 0.23$ 60,100 61,302 62,528 63,779 65,054 66,355 67,682 69,036 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 11.60$ 2,979,570 3,039,161 3,099,945 3,161,944 3,225,182 3,289,686 3,355,480 3,422,589 4600 Assessments 0.61$ 157,780 160,936 164,154 167,437 170,786 174,202 177,686 181,240 4700 Collection Charges 2.44$ 626,270 638,795 651,571 664,603 677,895 691,453 705,282 719,387 4800 Sale of Goods 0.01$ 2,650 2,703 2,757 2,812 2,868 2,926 2,984 3,044 4900 Other Revenue 5.92$ 713,065 1,200,000 1,320,000 1,440,000 1,560,000 1,680,000 1,760,000 1,860,000 TOTAL 11,942,760 12,654,289 13,003,375 13,357,042 13,715,383 14,078,491 14,406,460 14,759,390 TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 600.11$ 149,356,522 152,903,210 156,980,381 161,149,296 165,390,189 169,653,300 174,068,873 178,107,157 37 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax TOTAL Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 3020 Franchise Fees 3030 Utility Taxes 3040 Business License Tax 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax TOTAL Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 3140 Regulatory Permits 3160 Other Permits TOTAL Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 3240 Parking Penalties 3250 Other Penalties TOTAL Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3310 Sale of Real Property 3320 Sale of Personal Property 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings TOTAL Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 3440 State Tax Sharing 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License 3480 State Reimbursements 3500 Federal Grants 3580 Federal Reimbursements 3600 Other Agency Grants 3690 Other Agency Revenue TOTAL Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 3720 Document Fees 3730 Plan Checking Fees 3740 Inspection Fees 3750 Filing Fees 3770 Other Dev Fees 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 3830 Services to the Port District 3900 Recreation Program Fees 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 4300 Fees for Other Services TOTAL Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 4420 Transit Reimbursements 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 4450 CIP Reimbursements 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 4600 Assessments 4700 Collection Charges 4800 Sale of Goods 4900 Other Revenue TOTAL TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 352,165 FY2019-20 FORECAST FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST FY2027-28 FORECAST (3%) FY2028-29 FORECAST (3%) FY2029-30 FORECAST (3%) FY2030-31 FORECAST (3%) 126.04$ 128.87$ 131.53$ 134.18$ 136.93$ 139.59$ 142.51$ 144.79$ 149.14$ 153.61$ 158.22$ 162.97$ 119.56$ 115.50$ 115.16$ 114.89$ 114.51$ 114.14$ 113.78$ 113.43$ 116.83$ 120.34$ 123.95$ 127.67$ 41.17$ 41.52$ 41.94$ 42.35$ 42.75$ 43.16$ 43.54$ 43.93$ 45.24$ 46.60$ 48.00$ 49.44$ 19.34$ 19.23$ 19.11$ 18.99$ 18.88$ 18.77$ 18.66$ 18.44$ 18.99$ 19.56$ 20.15$ 20.75$ 5.45$ 6.22$ 6.11$ 6.08$ 6.08$ 6.04$ 6.01$ 5.77$ 5.94$ 6.12$ 6.30$ 6.49$ 14.70$ 14.16$ 14.19$ 14.25$ 14.30$ 14.36$ 14.41$ 14.49$ 14.93$ 15.37$ 15.84$ 16.31$ 3.96$ 3.97$ 3.98$ 4.00$ 4.01$ 4.03$ 4.04$ 4.06$ 4.18$ 4.31$ 4.44$ 4.57$ 0.59$ 0.59$ 0.59$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.61$ 0.62$ 0.64$ 0.66$ 0.68$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.11$ 2.12$ 2.12$ 2.13$ 2.20$ 2.26$ 2.33$ 2.40$ 2.72$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.74$ 2.76$ 2.77$ 2.78$ 2.79$ 2.87$ 2.96$ 3.05$ 3.14$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 2.04$ 2.05$ 2.05$ 2.06$ 2.07$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.16$ 2.22$ 2.29$ 2.36$ 0.99$ 0.99$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.01$ 1.01$ 1.02$ 1.05$ 1.08$ 1.11$ 1.15$ 0.84$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.86$ 0.86$ 0.87$ 0.89$ 0.92$ 0.95$ 0.97$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.41$ 0.41$ 0.42$ 0.43$ 0.45$ 0.46$ 2.70$ 2.71$ 2.72$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.75$ 2.76$ 2.78$ 2.86$ 2.94$ 3.03$ 3.12$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.95$ 0.95$ 0.98$ 1.01$ 1.04$ 1.07$ 3.45$ 3.46$ 3.47$ 3.48$ 3.49$ 3.51$ 3.52$ 3.54$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 3.87$ 3.98$ 3.25$ 3.26$ 3.27$ 3.28$ 3.29$ 3.30$ 3.32$ 3.33$ 3.43$ 3.54$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 2.50$ 2.51$ 2.52$ 2.53$ 2.54$ 2.55$ 2.56$ 2.57$ 2.65$ 2.73$ 2.81$ 2.89$ 0.77$ 0.77$ 0.77$ 0.78$ 0.78$ 0.78$ 0.79$ 0.79$ 0.81$ 0.84$ 0.86$ 0.89$ 78.01$ 80.22$ 81.96$ 83.68$ 85.43$ 87.17$ 89.09$ 90.53$ 93.25$ 96.05$ 98.93$ 101.90$ 0.45$ 0.45$ 0.45$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.48$ 0.49$ 0.51$ 0.52$ 1.55$ 1.56$ 1.56$ 1.57$ 1.57$ 1.58$ 1.59$ 1.59$ 1.64$ 1.69$ 1.74$ 1.79$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.06$ 2.06$ 2.07$ 2.08$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.11$ 2.17$ 2.24$ 2.31$ 2.38$ 4.46$ 4.47$ 4.49$ 4.50$ 4.52$ 4.54$ 4.55$ 4.58$ 4.71$ 4.85$ 5.00$ 5.15$ 2.26$ 2.26$ 2.27$ 2.28$ 2.29$ 2.29$ 2.30$ 2.31$ 2.38$ 2.46$ 2.53$ 2.61$ 0.08$ 0.08$ 0.08$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.10$ 1.39$ 1.39$ 1.40$ 1.40$ 1.41$ 1.41$ 1.42$ 1.43$ 1.47$ 1.51$ 1.56$ 1.60$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.15$ 0.15$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.03$ 0.92$ 0.92$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.95$ 0.97$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 3.63$ 3.64$ 3.65$ 3.66$ 3.68$ 3.69$ 3.71$ 3.72$ 3.83$ 3.95$ 4.07$ 4.19$ 4.94$ 4.95$ 4.97$ 4.99$ 5.01$ 5.03$ 5.05$ 5.07$ 5.22$ 5.38$ 5.54$ 5.71$ 9.83$ 9.86$ 9.89$ 9.93$ 9.96$ 10.00$ 10.05$ 10.09$ 10.39$ 10.71$ 11.03$ 11.36$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.17$ 0.17$ 0.18$ 0.38$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.41$ 0.42$ 0.43$ 0.44$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.25$ 0.26$ 0.26$ 0.27$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 6.33$ 6.35$ 6.37$ 6.39$ 6.41$ 6.44$ 6.46$ 6.49$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.09$ 7.31$ 18.02$ 18.07$ 18.12$ 18.19$ 18.25$ 18.33$ 18.40$ 18.49$ 19.04$ 19.61$ 20.20$ 20.81$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.22$ 0.23$ 0.23$ 10.05$ 10.08$ 10.11$ 10.14$ 10.18$ 10.22$ 10.27$ 10.31$ 10.62$ 10.94$ 11.27$ 11.61$ 0.53$ 0.53$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.55$ 0.56$ 0.58$ 0.60$ 0.61$ 2.11$ 2.12$ 2.13$ 2.13$ 2.14$ 2.15$ 2.16$ 2.17$ 2.23$ 2.30$ 2.37$ 2.44$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.40$ 3.98$ 4.31$ 4.62$ 4.93$ 5.22$ 5.38$ 5.60$ 5.77$ 5.95$ 6.12$ 6.31$ 503.74$ 507.05$ 511.98$ 517.04$ 522.17$ 527.20$ 532.55$ 536.60$ 552.69$ 569.27$ 586.35$ 603.94$ 38 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax TOTAL Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 3020 Franchise Fees 3030 Utility Taxes 3040 Business License Tax 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax TOTAL Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 3140 Regulatory Permits 3160 Other Permits TOTAL Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 3240 Parking Penalties 3250 Other Penalties TOTAL Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3310 Sale of Real Property 3320 Sale of Personal Property 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings TOTAL Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 3440 State Tax Sharing 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License 3480 State Reimbursements 3500 Federal Grants 3580 Federal Reimbursements 3600 Other Agency Grants 3690 Other Agency Revenue TOTAL Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 3720 Document Fees 3730 Plan Checking Fees 3740 Inspection Fees 3750 Filing Fees 3770 Other Dev Fees 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 3830 Services to the Port District 3900 Recreation Program Fees 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 4300 Fees for Other Services TOTAL Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 4420 Transit Reimbursements 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 4450 CIP Reimbursements 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 4600 Assessments 4700 Collection Charges 4800 Sale of Goods 4900 Other Revenue TOTAL TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 357,226 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 FY2031-32 FORECAST (3%) FY2032-33 FORECAST (3%) FY2033-34 FORECAST (3%) FY2034-35 FORECAST (3%) FY2035-36 FORECAST (3%) FY2037-38 FORECAST (3%) FY2038-39 FORECAST (3%) FY2039-40 FORECAST (3%) 167.86$ 172.89$ 178.08$ 183.42$ 188.92$ 194.59$ 200.43$ 206.44$ 131.50$ 135.44$ 139.51$ 143.69$ 148.00$ 152.44$ 157.01$ 161.73$ 50.92$ 52.45$ 54.02$ 55.64$ 57.31$ 59.03$ 60.80$ 62.63$ 21.37$ 22.02$ 22.68$ 23.36$ 24.06$ 24.78$ 25.52$ 26.29$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.09$ 7.31$ 7.53$ 7.75$ 7.98$ 8.22$ 16.80$ 17.30$ 17.82$ 18.36$ 18.91$ 19.48$ 20.06$ 20.66$ 4.71$ 4.85$ 4.99$ 5.14$ 5.30$ 5.46$ 5.62$ 5.79$ 0.70$ 0.72$ 0.75$ 0.77$ 0.79$ 0.82$ 0.84$ 0.86$ 2.47$ 2.55$ 2.62$ 2.70$ 2.78$ 2.87$ 2.95$ 3.04$ 3.23$ 3.33$ 3.43$ 3.53$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 3.86$ 3.98$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.07$ 0.07$ 0.07$ 2.43$ 2.50$ 2.58$ 2.65$ 2.73$ 2.82$ 2.90$ 2.99$ 1.18$ 1.21$ 1.25$ 1.29$ 1.33$ 1.37$ 1.41$ 1.45$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 1.10$ 1.13$ 1.16$ 1.20$ 1.23$ 0.47$ 0.49$ 0.50$ 0.52$ 0.53$ 0.55$ 0.57$ 0.58$ 3.22$ 3.31$ 3.41$ 3.52$ 3.62$ 3.73$ 3.84$ 3.96$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 1.10$ 1.14$ 1.17$ 1.20$ 1.24$ 1.28$ 1.32$ 1.36$ 4.10$ 4.22$ 4.35$ 4.48$ 4.62$ 4.75$ 4.90$ 5.04$ 3.86$ 3.98$ 4.10$ 4.22$ 4.35$ 4.48$ 4.61$ 4.75$ 2.98$ 3.07$ 3.16$ 3.25$ 3.35$ 3.45$ 3.56$ 3.66$ 0.92$ 0.94$ 0.97$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 1.09$ 1.13$ 104.95$ 108.10$ 111.34$ 114.69$ 118.13$ 121.67$ 125.32$ 129.08$ 0.54$ 0.55$ 0.57$ 0.59$ 0.60$ 0.62$ 0.64$ 0.66$ 1.85$ 1.90$ 1.96$ 2.02$ 2.08$ 2.14$ 2.21$ 2.27$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.04$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.45$ 2.52$ 2.60$ 2.67$ 2.75$ 2.84$ 2.92$ 3.01$ 5.30$ 5.46$ 5.63$ 5.80$ 5.97$ 6.15$ 6.33$ 6.52$ 2.68$ 2.76$ 2.85$ 2.93$ 3.02$ 3.11$ 3.20$ 3.30$ 0.10$ 0.10$ 0.11$ 0.11$ 0.11$ 0.12$ 0.12$ 0.12$ 1.65$ 1.70$ 1.75$ 1.81$ 1.86$ 1.92$ 1.97$ 2.03$ 0.16$ 0.17$ 0.17$ 0.18$ 0.19$ 0.19$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 1.10$ 1.13$ 1.16$ 1.20$ 1.23$ 1.27$ 1.31$ 1.35$ 4.32$ 4.45$ 4.58$ 4.72$ 4.86$ 5.00$ 5.15$ 5.31$ 5.88$ 6.05$ 6.23$ 6.42$ 6.61$ 6.81$ 7.02$ 7.23$ 11.70$ 12.05$ 12.41$ 12.78$ 13.17$ 13.56$ 13.97$ 14.39$ 0.18$ 0.19$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.22$ 0.23$ 0.46$ 0.47$ 0.49$ 0.50$ 0.51$ 0.53$ 0.55$ 0.56$ 0.28$ 0.29$ 0.30$ 0.31$ 0.32$ 0.33$ 0.34$ 0.35$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 7.53$ 7.75$ 7.98$ 8.22$ 8.47$ 8.73$ 8.99$ 9.26$ 21.43$ 22.07$ 22.73$ 23.42$ 24.12$ 24.84$ 25.59$ 26.36$ 0.24$ 0.25$ 0.26$ 0.26$ 0.27$ 0.28$ 0.29$ 0.30$ 11.95$ 12.31$ 12.68$ 13.06$ 13.45$ 13.86$ 14.27$ 14.70$ 0.63$ 0.65$ 0.67$ 0.69$ 0.71$ 0.73$ 0.76$ 0.78$ 2.51$ 2.59$ 2.67$ 2.75$ 2.83$ 2.91$ 3.00$ 3.09$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 6.50$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.10$ 7.31$ 7.53$ 7.76$ 7.99$ 622.06$ 640.72$ 659.94$ 679.74$ 700.14$ 721.14$ 742.77$ 765.06$ 39 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE Weighted Average FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 Household Population 282,375 287,195 292,015 296,835 301,655 306,475 311,295 316,115 320,935 325,755 330,575 Employment Population (Per Capita Equiv) 14,119 14,360 14,601 14,842 15,083 15,324 15,565 15,806 16,047 16,288 16,529 Total Population 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 Per Capita by Category: General Government 71.25$ 61.25$ 62.03$ 62.84$ 63.67$ 64.53$ 65.42$ 66.34$ 67.29$ 68.27$ 69.28$ 70.31$ Community Development 12.59 10.82 10.96 11.10 11.25 11.40 11.56 11.72 11.89 12.06 12.24 12.42 Public Works/Engineering 55.62 47.95 48.90 49.49 50.09 50.67 51.29 51.94 52.56 53.24 53.90 54.71 Community Services 60.81 52.27 52.94 53.63 54.34 55.07 55.83 56.62 57.43 58.26 59.12 60.01 Public Safety: Police Services 270.13 212.46 221.00 226.49 232.03 237.80 243.66 249.80 255.69 261.81 267.92 271.93 Fire Services 130.97 111.49 114.46 117.89 119.20 120.50 121.79 123.10 124.21 125.45 126.60 128.49 Animal Control Services 11.31 9.72 9.85 9.97 10.11 10.24 10.39 10.53 10.68 10.84 11.00 11.16 Total Public Safety 412.41 333.67 345.31 354.36 361.34 368.54 375.83 383.43 390.58 398.09 405.51 411.59 Total General Fund Expenditures 612.68$ 505.97$ 520.14$ 531.41$ 540.68$ 550.22$ 559.94$ 570.05$ 579.75$ 589.92$ 600.05$ 609.04$ Per Capita by Department: City Council 2.56 2.20$ 2.23$ 2.26$ 2.29$ 2.32$ 2.35$ 2.38$ 2.42$ 2.45$ 2.49$ 2.52$ Boards & Commissions 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 City Clerk 4.09 3.52 3.56 3.61 3.65 3.70 3.76 3.81 3.86 3.92 3.98 4.04 City Attorney 12.86 11.05 11.20 11.34 11.49 11.65 11.81 11.97 12.15 12.32 12.50 12.69 Administration 8.46 7.27 7.36 7.46 7.56 7.66 7.76 7.87 7.99 8.10 8.22 8.34 Info Tech Services 15.23 13.09 13.26 13.43 13.61 13.79 13.98 14.18 14.38 14.59 14.80 15.03 Human Resources 12.11 10.41 10.54 10.68 10.82 10.97 11.12 11.28 11.44 11.60 11.78 11.95 Finance 15.90 13.67 13.84 14.02 14.21 14.40 14.60 14.81 15.02 15.24 15.46 15.69 Non-Departmental - - - - - - - - - - - - Animal Care Facility 11.31 9.72 9.85 9.97 10.11 10.24 10.39 10.53 10.68 10.84 11.00 11.16 Economic Development 8.65 7.44 7.53 7.63 7.73 7.84 7.94 8.06 8.17 8.29 8.41 8.54 Planning & Building 3.93 3.38 3.43 3.47 3.52 3.56 3.61 3.66 3.72 3.77 3.83 3.88 Engineering/CIP Projects 36.60 31.47 31.87 32.28 32.71 33.15 33.61 34.08 34.57 35.07 35.59 36.12 Police 270.13 212.46 221.00 226.49 232.03 237.80 243.66 249.80 255.69 261.81 267.92 271.93 Fire 130.97 111.49 114.46 117.89 119.20 120.50 121.79 123.10 124.21 125.45 126.60 128.49 Public Works 19.01 16.49 17.04 17.21 17.38 17.52 17.68 17.86 18.00 18.16 18.31 18.58 Recreation 44.35 38.12 38.61 39.11 39.63 40.17 40.72 41.29 41.88 42.49 43.12 43.77 Library 16.46 14.15 14.33 14.52 14.71 14.91 15.11 15.33 15.54 15.77 16.00 16.24 General Fund Totals 612.68$ 505.97$ 520.14$ 531.41$ 540.68$ 550.22$ 559.94$ 570.05$ 579.75$ 589.92$ 600.05$ 609.04$ 40 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE Weighted Average FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FULL FISCAL IMPACT - FORECAST FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 General Government 18,160,487 18,705,302 19,266,461 19,844,455 20,439,789 21,052,982 21,684,572 22,335,109 23,005,162 23,695,317 24,406,177 Community Development 3,208,062 3,304,304 3,403,433 3,505,536 3,610,702 3,719,023 3,830,594 3,945,512 4,063,877 4,185,794 4,311,367 Public Works/Engineering 14,217,621 14,747,185 15,175,755 15,611,689 16,049,950 16,505,765 16,976,996 17,446,944 17,939,238 18,435,310 18,988,369 Community Services 15,498,905 15,963,872 16,442,789 16,936,072 17,444,154 17,967,479 18,506,503 19,061,699 19,633,550 20,222,556 20,829,233 Public Safety: Police Services 62,993,374 66,643,363 69,445,105 72,319,470 75,320,061 78,408,743 81,648,090 84,868,480 88,225,442 91,639,078 94,388,250 Fire Services 33,055,258 34,516,650 36,148,007 37,150,475 38,166,592 39,191,500 40,237,679 41,227,647 42,272,838 43,301,909 44,600,967 Animal Control Services 2,882,814 2,969,298 3,058,377 3,150,129 3,244,633 3,341,972 3,442,231 3,545,498 3,651,863 3,761,418 3,874,261 Total Public Safety 98,931,446 104,129,311 108,651,490 112,620,074 116,731,286 120,942,215 125,328,000 129,641,625 134,150,143 138,702,406 142,863,478 Total General Fund Expenditures 150,016,522 156,849,974 162,939,928 168,517,826 174,275,881 180,187,464 186,326,665 192,430,888 198,791,969 205,241,382 211,398,623 DEPARTMENT NAME CITY COUNCIL 3.59%651,797 671,350 691,491 712,236 733,603 755,611 778,279 801,628 825,676 850,447 875,960 BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS 0.07%12,074 12,436 12,809 13,193 13,589 13,997 14,417 14,849 15,295 15,754 16,226 CITY CLERK 5.25%1,042,495 1,073,770 1,105,983 1,139,163 1,173,338 1,208,538 1,244,794 1,282,138 1,320,602 1,360,220 1,401,027 CITY ATTORNEY 16.61%3,277,722 3,376,054 3,477,336 3,581,656 3,689,105 3,799,779 3,913,772 4,031,185 4,152,121 4,276,684 4,404,985 ADMINISTRATION 11.41%2,155,103 2,219,756 2,286,349 2,354,939 2,425,588 2,498,355 2,573,306 2,650,505 2,730,020 2,811,921 2,896,278 INFO TECH SRVCS 21.07%3,881,057 3,997,488 4,117,413 4,240,936 4,368,164 4,499,208 4,634,185 4,773,210 4,916,407 5,063,899 5,215,816 HUMAN RESOURCES 15.47%3,086,826 3,179,431 3,274,813 3,373,058 3,474,250 3,578,477 3,685,831 3,796,406 3,910,299 4,027,607 4,148,436 FINANCE 21.14%4,053,414 4,175,016 4,300,266 4,429,274 4,562,153 4,699,017 4,839,988 4,985,187 5,134,743 5,288,785 5,447,449 NON-DEPARTMENTAL 0.00%- - - - - - - - - - - ANIMAL CARE FACILITY 2,882,814 2,969,298 3,058,377 3,150,129 3,244,633 3,341,972 3,442,231 3,545,498 3,651,863 3,761,418 3,874,261 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 68.74%2,205,269 2,271,428 2,339,570 2,409,757 2,482,050 2,556,512 2,633,207 2,712,203 2,793,569 2,877,376 2,963,698 PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICE 31.26%1,002,793 1,032,877 1,063,863 1,095,779 1,128,652 1,162,512 1,197,387 1,233,309 1,270,308 1,308,417 1,347,670 ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS 65.62%9,329,383 9,609,265 9,897,543 10,194,469 10,500,303 10,815,312 11,139,772 11,473,965 11,818,184 12,172,729 12,537,911 POLICE 62,993,374 66,643,363 69,445,105 72,319,470 75,320,061 78,408,743 81,648,090 84,868,480 88,225,442 91,639,078 94,388,250 FIRE 33,055,258 34,516,650 36,148,007 37,150,475 38,166,592 39,191,500 40,237,679 41,227,647 42,272,838 43,301,909 44,600,967 PUBLIC WORKS 54.48%4,888,237 5,137,920 5,278,213 5,417,220 5,549,646 5,690,452 5,837,224 5,972,980 6,121,054 6,262,580 6,450,458 RECREATION 53.71%11,303,651 11,642,760 11,992,043 12,351,804 12,722,358 13,104,029 13,497,150 13,902,065 14,319,126 14,748,700 15,191,161 LIBRARY 46.29%4,195,255 4,321,112 4,450,746 4,584,268 4,721,796 4,863,450 5,009,353 5,159,634 5,314,423 5,473,856 5,638,071 GENERAL FUND TOTALS 150,016,522 156,849,974 162,939,928 168,517,826 174,275,881 180,187,464 186,326,665 192,430,888 198,791,969 205,241,382 211,398,623 - - - - - - - - - - - 41 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORN SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITU PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABL Household Population Employment Population (Per Capita Equiv) Total Population Per Capita by Category: General Government Community Development Public Works/Engineering Community Services Public Safety: Police Services Fire Services Animal Control Services Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Per Capita by Department: City Council Boards & Commissions City Clerk City Attorney Administration Info Tech Services Human Resources Finance Non-Departmental Animal Care Facility Economic Development Planning & Building Engineering/CIP Projects Police Fire Public Works Recreation Library General Fund Totals FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 335,395 340,215 342,066 343,844 345,651 347,440 349,185 350,894 352,560 16,770 17,011 17,103 17,192 17,283 17,372 17,459 17,545 17,628 352,165 357,226 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 71.38$ 72.48$ 74.25$ 76.08$ 77.96$ 79.88$ 81.87$ 83.91$ 86.02$ 12.61 12.80 13.12 13.44 13.77 14.11 14.46 14.82 15.20 55.54 56.39 57.77 59.20 60.65 62.15 63.69 65.29 66.93 60.92 61.86 63.37 64.93 66.53 68.18 69.87 71.62 73.42 276.06 280.32 287.16 294.25 301.49 308.94 316.62 324.53 332.68 130.45 132.46 135.69 139.04 142.46 145.98 149.61 153.35 157.20 11.33 11.51 11.79 12.08 12.38 12.68 13.00 13.32 13.66 417.84 424.28 434.64 445.37 456.33 467.60 479.22 491.20 503.54 618.29$ 627.82$ 643.15$ 659.02$ 675.25$ 691.92$ 709.12$ 726.83$ 745.10$ 2.56$ 2.60$ 2.66$ 2.73$ 2.80$ 2.87$ 2.94$ 3.01$ 3.09$ 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 4.10 4.16 4.26 4.37 4.48 4.59 4.70 4.82 4.94 12.88 13.08 13.40 13.73 14.07 14.42 14.78 15.15 15.53 8.47 8.60 8.81 9.03 9.25 9.48 9.72 9.96 10.21 15.26 15.49 15.87 16.26 16.66 17.07 17.50 17.93 18.38 12.13 12.32 12.62 12.93 13.25 13.58 13.92 14.26 14.62 15.93 16.18 16.57 16.98 17.40 17.83 18.27 18.73 19.20 - - - - - - - - - 11.33 11.51 11.79 12.08 12.38 12.68 13.00 13.32 13.66 8.67 8.80 9.02 9.24 9.47 9.70 9.94 10.19 10.45 3.94 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.41 4.52 4.63 4.75 36.67 37.24 38.15 39.09 40.05 41.04 42.06 43.11 44.19 276.06 280.32 287.16 294.25 301.49 308.94 316.62 324.53 332.68 130.45 132.46 135.69 139.04 142.46 145.98 149.61 153.35 157.20 18.87 19.16 19.62 20.11 20.60 21.11 21.64 22.18 22.74 44.43 45.12 46.22 47.36 48.52 49.72 50.96 52.23 53.54 16.49 16.74 17.15 17.58 18.01 18.45 18.91 19.38 19.87 618.29$ 627.82$ 643.15$ 659.02$ 675.25$ 691.92$ 709.12$ 726.83$ 745.10$ 42 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORN SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITU PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABL FULL FISCAL IMPACT - FORECA General Government Community Development Public Works/Engineering Community Services Public Safety: Police Services Fire Services Animal Control Serv Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expend DEPARTMENT NAME CITY COUNCIL BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS CITY CLERK CITY ATTORNEY ADMINISTRATION INFO TECH SRVCS HUMAN RESOURCES FINANCE NON-DEPARTMENTAL ANIMAL CARE FACILITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICE ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS POLICE FIRE PUBLIC WORKS RECREATION LIBRARY GENERAL FUND TOTALS FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 25,138,362 25,892,513 26,669,288 27,469,367 28,293,448 29,142,251 30,016,519 30,917,014 31,844,525 4,440,708 4,573,930 4,711,148 4,852,482 4,998,056 5,147,998 5,302,438 5,461,511 5,625,357 19,558,020 20,144,761 20,749,103 21,371,577 22,012,724 22,673,106 23,353,299 24,053,898 24,775,515 21,454,110 22,097,733 22,760,665 23,443,485 24,146,789 24,871,193 25,617,329 26,385,849 27,177,424 97,219,898 100,136,494 103,140,589 106,234,807 109,421,851 112,704,507 116,085,642 119,568,211 123,155,257 45,938,996 47,317,166 48,736,681 50,198,781 51,704,744 53,255,887 54,853,563 56,499,170 58,194,145 3,990,489 4,110,203 4,233,510 4,360,515 4,491,330 4,626,070 4,764,852 4,907,798 5,055,032 147,149,382 151,563,863 156,110,779 160,794,103 165,617,926 170,586,464 175,704,058 180,975,179 186,404,435 217,740,582 224,272,799 231,000,983 237,931,013 245,068,943 252,421,012 259,993,642 267,793,451 275,827,255 902,239 929,306 957,185 985,901 1,015,478 1,045,942 1,077,320 1,109,640 1,142,929 16,713 17,214 17,731 18,263 18,811 19,375 19,956 20,555 21,172 1,443,057 1,486,349 1,530,940 1,576,868 1,624,174 1,672,899 1,723,086 1,774,778 1,828,022 4,537,134 4,673,248 4,813,446 4,957,849 5,106,585 5,259,782 5,417,576 5,580,103 5,747,506 2,983,167 3,072,662 3,164,842 3,259,787 3,357,581 3,458,308 3,562,057 3,668,919 3,778,986 5,372,290 5,533,459 5,699,463 5,870,447 6,046,560 6,227,957 6,414,795 6,607,239 6,805,457 4,272,889 4,401,075 4,533,108 4,669,101 4,809,174 4,953,449 5,102,053 5,255,114 5,412,768 5,610,872 5,779,199 5,952,575 6,131,152 6,315,086 6,504,539 6,699,675 6,900,665 7,107,685 - - - - - - - - - 3,990,489 4,110,203 4,233,510 4,360,515 4,491,330 4,626,070 4,764,852 4,907,798 5,055,032 3,052,609 3,144,187 3,238,513 3,335,668 3,435,738 3,538,810 3,644,974 3,754,324 3,866,953 1,388,100 1,429,743 1,472,635 1,516,814 1,562,319 1,609,188 1,657,464 1,707,188 1,758,403 12,914,048 13,301,470 13,700,514 14,111,529 14,534,875 14,970,922 15,420,049 15,882,651 16,359,130 97,219,898 100,136,494 103,140,589 106,234,807 109,421,851 112,704,507 116,085,642 119,568,211 123,155,257 45,938,996 47,317,166 48,736,681 50,198,781 51,704,744 53,255,887 54,853,563 56,499,170 58,194,145 6,643,972 6,843,291 7,048,589 7,260,047 7,477,849 7,702,184 7,933,249 8,171,247 8,416,384 15,646,896 16,116,303 16,599,792 17,097,786 17,610,719 18,139,041 18,683,212 19,243,709 19,821,020 5,807,214 5,981,430 6,160,873 6,345,699 6,536,070 6,732,152 6,934,117 7,142,140 7,356,404 217,740,582 224,272,799 231,000,983 237,931,013 245,068,943 252,421,012 259,993,642 267,793,451 275,827,255 - - - - - - - - - 43 FUNCTIONAL AREA RECONCILED ITEMS TO PUBLISHED BUDGET PERSONNEL SERVICES SUPPLIES & SERVICES UTILITIES OTHER OPERATING CAPITAL XFERS OUT INTERNAL SERVICE CHARGES AMENDED FY2019- 20 TOTAL ELIMINATION ENTRY RECLASS NON- DEPARTMENTAL COSTS RECLASS NON- DEPARTMENTAL COSTS REVISED TOTALS TRANSFERS IN City 10 Year Model REVISED TOTALS General Government 15,592,728$ 2,924,966$ 20,259$ -$ 123,915$ -$ -$ 18,661,868$ -$ -$ 454,715$ 19,116,583$ (956,096) - 18,160,487$ Community Development 4,621,535 343,316 4,872 12,000 2,020 - 23,635 5,007,378 - - 124,332 5,131,710 (1,923,648) - 3,208,062 Public Works/Engineering 16,361,728 1,792,632 1,457,593 123,500 150,171 386,611 609,443 20,881,678 - - 673,694 21,555,372 (7,687,751) 350,000 14,217,621 Community Services 10,814,949 1,185,597 2,881,712 81,300 2,523 - 324,262 15,290,343 - - 208,562 15,498,905 - - 15,498,905 Public Safety - Police Services3 54,776,784 2,010,850 412,372 103,243 - - 1,000,423 58,303,672 - 2,233,778 1,413,564 61,951,014 (587,640) 1,630,000 62,993,374 Fire Services4 28,491,107 2,131,858 193,717 - - 62,326 955,878 31,834,886 - -703,874 32,538,760 (1,143,502) 1,660,000 33,055,258 Animal Control Services 2,348,400 351,949 42,296 4,500 6,282 - 53,200 2,806,627 - -76,187 2,882,814 - - 2,882,814 Non-Departmental (153,983) 1,668,697 3,984 454,622 - 42,207,075 - 44,180,395 (36,767,305) (2,233,778) (3,654,929) 1,524,383 (1,524,383) - - 132,853,248$ 12,409,865$ 5,016,805$ 779,165$ 284,911$ 42,656,012$ 2,966,841$ 196,966,847$ (36,767,305)$ -$ -$ 160,199,542$ (13,823,020)$ 3,640,000$ 150,016,522$ FY2019-20 ADOPTED FY2019- 20 DEPT DEPARTMENT NAME PERSONNEL SERVICES SUPPLIES & SERVICES UTILITIES OTHER OPERATING CAPITAL XFERS OUT INTERNAL SERVICE CHARGES TOTAL ELIMINATION ENTRY AND 1ST QUARTER ADJUSTMENTS RECLASS FOR POLICE SPREAD REVISED TOTALS TRANSFERS IN City 10 Year Model REVISED TOTALS 01100 CITY COUNCIL 1,456,659$ 105,880$ 1,307$ -$ 3,190$ -$ -$ 1,567,036$ 40,857 1,607,893$ (956,096) - 651,797$ 02000 BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS - 11,841 - - - - - 11,841 - 233 12,074 - - 12,074 03000 CITY CLERK 858,657 159,285 688 - - - - 1,018,630 23,865 1,042,495 - - 1,042,495 04000 CITY ATTORNEY 2,886,587 308,800 1,856 - 4,948 - - 3,202,191 75,531 3,277,722 - - 3,277,722 05000 ADMINISTRATION 1,948,791 150,187 832 - 3,416 - - 2,103,226 51,877 2,155,103 - - 2,155,103 06000 INFO TECH SRVCS 2,349,498 1,335,947 11,907 - 87,890 - - 3,785,242 95,815 3,881,057 - - 3,881,057 07000 HUMAN RESOURCES 2,587,023 418,970 1,457 - 8,972 - - 3,016,422 - 70,404 3,086,826 - - 3,086,826 08000 FINANCE 3,505,513 434,056 2,212 - 15,499 - - 3,957,280 96,134 4,053,414 - - 4,053,414 09000 NON-DEPARTMENTAL (153,983) 1,668,697 3,984 454,622 - 42,207,075 - 44,180,395 (36,767,305) (2,233,778) (3,654,929) 1,524,383 (1,524,383) - - 10000 ANIMAL CARE FACILITY 2,348,400 351,949 42,296 4,500 6,282 - 53,200 2,806,627 76,187 2,882,814 - - 2,882,814 11000 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1,977,144 168,422 2,497 - 1,520 - - 2,149,583 - 55,686 2,205,269 - - 2,205,269 12000 PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICES 2,644,391 174,894 2,375 12,000 500 - 23,635 2,857,795 - 68,646 2,926,441 (1,923,648) - 1,002,793 13000 ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS 7,229,662 366,083 863,671 108,500 10,000 386,611 144,695 9,109,222 220,161 9,329,383 - - 9,329,383 14000 POLICE 54,776,784 2,010,850 412,372 103,243 - - 1,000,423 58,303,672 - 2,233,778 1,413,564 61,951,014 (587,640) 1,630,000 62,993,374 15000 FIRE 28,491,107 2,131,858 193,717 - - 62,326 955,878 31,834,886 703,874 32,538,760 (1,143,502) 1,660,000 33,055,258 16000 PUBLIC WORKS 9,132,066 1,426,549 593,922 15,000 140,171 - 464,748 11,772,456 453,532 12,225,988 (7,687,751) 350,000 4,888,237 17000 RECREATION 7,219,052 959,603 2,608,646 80,900 2,523 - 320,917 11,191,641 112,010 11,303,651 - - 11,303,651 18000 LIBRARY 3,595,897 225,994 273,066 400 - - 3,345 4,098,702 - 96,553 4,195,255 - - 4,195,255 GENERAL FUND TOTALS 132,853,248$ 12,409,865$ 5,016,805$ 779,165$ 284,911$ 42,656,012$ 2,966,841$ 196,966,847$ (36,767,305)$ -$ -$ 160,199,542$ (13,823,020)$ 3,640,000$ 150,016,522$ 0.829298551 44 MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Appendix B Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Existing Industrial Use 1 The spreadsheet is ready to accept unit counts and valuation of project costs. 2 TABS: COMPLETE SHADED AREAS AS INSTRUCTED ON EACH TAB 2a TAB: Property Tax Analysis Enter unit counts in yellow highlighted cells Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Commercial Industrial Office Hotel 2b Input a Constructed Assessed Value 2c 2d TAB: Sales Tax Analysis - Input Square Footage and Rates on Sheet 2e TAB: Expenditure - Police & Fire Input Acres by Land Use In Shaded Areas 2f TAB: Police & Fire Costs - Dev - No input; shows costs and phase in of Fire Station/S 2g TAB: Police & Fire Detal Calcs (call volume by Land Use) 2h TAB: Master Plan Services 2i TAB: Maintenance Service Costs Input Lane Miles and Park Acres 3 TAB: Maintenance Service Costs - PS 3a Input the service count components listed (as applicable) 4 TAB: Analysis - Model FY 4a 4b 4c 5 TAB: Population Factor - Prepopulated TAB: EXH 1 - Revenue Per Capita (Data supporting Fiscal Impact - Locked) TAB: EXH 2 - Expenditures Per Capita (Data supporting Fiscal Impact - Locked) TAB: SUMMARY-EXP (Reconciles Published Budget to Base for Fiscal Model) 6 Print each Tab when done Input on Percentage Complete row for each section - a factor of how much of Instructional Guide This table links to other input tables and calculates the fiscal impact on If the project has a hotel, the room counts per hotel need to be input to Also, an absorption % impact factor needs to be entered on realizing the 46 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Single Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Multi-Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Subtotal (Per Capita)- - - - - - - - - Employment Population 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Totals 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Single Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Multi-Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Totals - - - - - - - - - Hotel 1 - # rooms - - - - - - - - - Hotel 2 - # rooms - - - - - - - - - Totals - - - - - - - - - Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average*154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$ 174.46$ Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned*142.10$ 144.23$ 146.39$ 148.59$ 150.82$ 153.08$ 155.38$ 157.71$ 160.07$ Average Hotel Occupancy*77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy*0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% Absorption Rate 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV 6,357$ 6,484$ 6,614$ 6,746$ 6,881$ 7,019$ 7,159$ 7,303$ 7,449$ Sales and Use Tax Per Capita 1,590 1,536 1,532 1,528 1,523 1,518 1,513 1,509 1,554 Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita 195 188 189 189 190 191 192 193 199 Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific - 64 130 197 265 335 406 478 552 Franchise Fees Per Capita 548 552 558 563 569 574 579 584 602 Other Taxes Per Capita 505 497 496 495 495 494 494 492 507 Subtotal Tax Revenues 9,196 9,322 9,518 9,719 9,923 10,131 10,343 10,559 10,862 Other Revenues Per Capita 536 558 564 570 576 582 586 591 609 Licenses and Permits Per Capita 72 73 73 73 73 74 74 74 76 Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita 57 57 57 57 58 58 58 58 60 Use of Money & Property Per Capita 137 138 138 139 139 140 140 141 145 Charges for Services No Forecast - - - - - - - - - Intergovernmental Per Capita 98 98 99 99 99 100 100 101 104 Subtotal Other Revenues 900 924 931 938 945 953 959 966 995 Total General Fund Revenues 10,096$ 10,246$ 10,449$ 10,658$ 10,868$ 11,084$ 11,302$ 11,524$ 11,856$ General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita 122$ 124$ 125$ 127$ 129$ 131$ 132$ 134$ 136$ Community Development (20%)Per Capita 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 Public Works/Engineering Per Capita 44 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 48 PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 Building Management System 4.10 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Parks Management System 15.68 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 Open Space Management System 6.72 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Fleet Management System 3.73 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 General Govt Management System 0.65 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 78.28$ 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 Community Services Per Capita 348 352 357 361 366 371 377 382 387 Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific 6,865 7,263 7,568 7,881 8,208 8,545 8,898 9,249 9,480 Fire Services Project Specific 2,378 2,483 2,600 2,672 2,746 2,819 2,895 2,966 3,041 Animal Control Services Per Capita 129 131 133 134 136 138 140 142 144 Total Public Safety 9,372 9,877 10,301 10,688 11,090 11,502 11,932 12,357 12,665 Total General Fund Expenditures 10,279$ 10,791$ 11,223$ 11,617$ 12,026$ 12,446$ 12,884$ 13,317$ 13,634$ Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)($183)($545)($774)($960)($1,158)($1,362)($1,583)($1,793)($1,777) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 47 Year Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Subtotal (Per Capita) Employment Population Totals Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Totals Hotel 1 - # rooms Hotel 2 - # rooms Totals Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* Average Hotel Occupancy* Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) Absorption Rate Year General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV Sales and Use Tax Per Capita Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific Franchise Fees Per Capita Other Taxes Per Capita Subtotal Tax Revenues Other Revenues Per Capita Licenses and Permits Per Capita Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita Use of Money & Property Per Capita Charges for Services No Forecast Intergovernmental Per Capita Subtotal Other Revenues Total General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita Community Development (20%)Per Capita Public Works/Engineering Per Capita PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ Building Management System 4.10 Parks Management System 15.68 Open Space Management System 6.72 Fleet Management System 3.73 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 General Govt Management System 0.65 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 78.28$ Community Services Per Capita Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific Fire Services Project Specific Animal Control Services Per Capita Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 177.08$ 179.73$ 182.43$ 185.17$ 187.94$ 190.76$ 193.62$ 196.53$ 199.48$ 162.48$ 164.91$ 167.39$ 169.90$ 172.45$ 175.03$ 177.66$ 180.32$ 183.03$ 77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 7,598$ 7,750$ 7,905$ 8,063$ 8,224$ 8,388$ 8,556$ 8,727$ 8,902$ 1,601 1,649 1,698 1,749 1,801 1,855 1,911 1,968 2,027 204 211 217 223 230 237 244 251 259 628 705 783 863 945 1,028 1,113 1,200 1,288 620 638 658 677 698 719 740 762 785 522 538 554 570 587 605 623 642 661 11,172 11,489 11,814 12,146 12,485 12,832 13,188 13,551 13,922 627 646 666 686 706 727 749 772 795 79 81 84 86 89 91 94 97 100 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 150 154 159 164 168 174 179 184 190 - - - - - - - - - 107 110 113 117 120 124 127 131 135 1,024 1,055 1,087 1,119 1,153 1,188 1,223 1,260 1,298 12,196$ 12,544$ 12,901$ 13,265$ 13,638$ 14,020$ 14,411$ 14,811$ 15,220$ 138$ 140$ 142$ 145$ 148$ 152$ 156$ 159$ 163$ 33 33 34 34 35 36 37 38 38 49 49 50 51 52 53 55 56 58 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 393 399 405 411 421 432 442 453 465 9,717 9,960 10,209 10,464 10,726 10,994 11,269 11,550 11,839 3,115 3,208 3,305 3,404 3,506 3,611 3,719 3,831 3,946 146 148 151 153 157 161 165 169 173 12,978 13,317 13,664 14,021 14,388 14,766 15,153 15,550 15,958 13,955$ 14,303$ 14,660$ 15,026$ 15,409$ 15,803$ 16,207$ 16,621$ 17,046$ ($1,759)($1,759)($1,759)($1,761)($1,771)($1,783)($1,796)($1,810)($1,826)48 Year Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Subtotal (Per Capita) Employment Population Totals Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Totals Hotel 1 - # rooms Hotel 2 - # rooms Totals Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* Average Hotel Occupancy* Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) Absorption Rate Year General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV Sales and Use Tax Per Capita Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific Franchise Fees Per Capita Other Taxes Per Capita Subtotal Tax Revenues Other Revenues Per Capita Licenses and Permits Per Capita Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita Use of Money & Property Per Capita Charges for Services No Forecast Intergovernmental Per Capita Subtotal Other Revenues Total General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita Community Development (20%)Per Capita Public Works/Engineering Per Capita PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ Building Management System 4.10 Parks Management System 15.68 Open Space Management System 6.72 Fleet Management System 3.73 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 General Govt Management System 0.65 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 78.28$ Community Services Per Capita Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific Fire Services Project Specific Animal Control Services Per Capita Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 19 20 - - - - - - 13 13 13 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - 202.47$ 205.50$ 185.77$ 188.56$ 77.1%77.1% 0.0%0.0% 10%10% 0%0% 21 22 9,080$ 9,261$ 2,088 2,151 267 275 1,378 1,470 809 833 681 701 14,303 14,691 819 843 103 106 81 83 195 201 - - 139 143 1,337 1,377 15,639$ 16,068$ 167$ 172$ 39 40 59 60 123 123 19 19 73 73 31 31 17 17 66 66 3 3 31 31 364 364 476 488 12,135 12,439 4,064 4,186 177 182 16,377 16,806 17,483$ 17,932$ ($1,844)($1,863)49 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units - - - - - - - - Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 - - - - - - - Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units - - - - - - - - Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 - - - - - - - Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Cumulative Residents - - - - - - - Commercial Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Industrial Employees 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Percentage Complete 100%100%100%100%100%100%100% Constructed Assessed Values 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ Office Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Hotel Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ Inflation Factor 2.00%100.00%102.00%104.04%106.12%108.24%110.41%112.62% Total AV - Inflated $3,946,185 $4,025,109 $4,105,611 $4,187,723 $4,271,478 $4,356,907 $4,444,045 Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)$3,946,185 $4,025,109 $4,105,611 $4,187,723 $4,271,478 $4,356,907 $4,444,045 Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00%0.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated $3,946,185 $4,025,109 $4,105,611 $4,187,723 $4,271,478 $4,356,907 $4,444,045 Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem 1.00%39,462$ 40,251$ 41,056$ 41,877$ 42,715$ 43,569$ 44,440$ Total AV Tax Due to City 16.11%$6,357 $6,484 $6,614 $6,746 $6,881 $7,019 $7,159 50 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 114.87%117.17%119.51%121.90%124.34%126.82%129.36%131.95% $4,532,926 $4,623,585 $4,716,056 $4,810,377 $4,906,585 $5,004,717 $5,104,811 $5,206,907 $4,532,926 $4,623,585 $4,716,056 $4,810,377 $4,906,585 $5,004,717 $5,104,811 $5,206,907 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4,532,926 $4,623,585 $4,716,056 $4,810,377 $4,906,585 $5,004,717 $5,104,811 $5,206,907 45,329$ 46,236$ 47,161$ 48,104$ 49,066$ 50,047$ 51,048$ 52,069$ $7,303 $7,449 $7,598 $7,750 $7,905 $8,063 $8,224 $8,388 51 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 16 17 18 19 20 - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 38 38 38 38 38 100%100%100%100%100% 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 3,946,185$ 134.59%137.28%140.02%142.82%145.68% $5,311,045 $5,417,266 $5,525,612 $5,636,124 $5,748,846 $5,311,045 $5,417,266 $5,525,612 $5,636,124 $5,748,846 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,311,045 $5,417,266 $5,525,612 $5,636,124 $5,748,846 53,110$ 54,173$ 55,256$ 56,361$ 57,488$ $8,556 $8,727 $8,902 $9,080 $9,261 52 FY2019-20 ADOPTED FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST FY2027-28 FORECAST FY2028-29 FORECAST FY2029-30 FORECAST FY2030-31 FORECAST FY2031-32 FORECAST 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 POPULATION 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 352,165 357,226 CHANGE IN POPULATION 25,083 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 2.8 # of DU 8,958 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR 1,592 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 7,366 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS)- - - - - - - - - - - - - DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - COMMERCIAL (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.91 INDUSTRIAL (ACRES)6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 - OFFICE (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - HOTEL (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 882.52$ 975.90$ 1,032.44$ 1,075.85$ 1,120.38$ 1,166.86$ 1,214.71$ 1,264.90$ 1,314.79$ 1,347.66$ 1,381.35$ 1,415.88$ 1,451.28$ 1,487.56$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 952.71$ 1,053.52$ 1,114.56$ 1,161.42$ 1,209.49$ 1,259.67$ 1,311.33$ 1,365.51$ 1,419.36$ 1,454.85$ 1,491.22$ 1,528.50$ 1,566.71$ 1,605.88$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 4,167.10$ 4,608.01$ 4,875.01$ 5,079.96$ 5,290.22$ 5,509.72$ 5,735.66$ 5,972.62$ 6,208.19$ 6,363.40$ 6,522.48$ 6,685.55$ 6,852.68$ 7,024.00$ POLICE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 898.41$ 993.47$ 1,051.04$ 1,095.22$ 1,140.56$ 1,187.88$ 1,236.59$ 1,287.68$ 1,338.47$ 1,371.93$ 1,406.23$ 1,441.38$ 1,477.42$ 1,514.35$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 6,865$ 7,263$ 7,568$ 7,881$ 8,208$ 8,545$ 8,898$ 9,249$ 9,480$ 9,717$ 9,960$ 10,209$ 10,464$ EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 376.83$ 439.73$ 459.17$ 480.87$ 494.21$ 507.72$ 521.36$ 535.28$ 548.44$ 562.35$ 576.04$ 593.32$ 611.12$ 629.45$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 422.97$ 493.58$ 515.40$ 539.76$ 554.73$ 569.90$ 585.20$ 600.82$ 615.60$ 631.21$ 646.58$ 665.97$ 685.95$ 706.53$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,479.61$ 1,726.59$ 1,802.93$ 1,888.14$ 1,940.50$ 1,993.58$ 2,047.11$ 2,101.76$ 2,153.47$ 2,208.06$ 2,261.81$ 2,329.67$ 2,399.56$ 2,471.54$ FIRE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 294.89$ 344.12$ 359.33$ 376.32$ 386.75$ 397.33$ 408.00$ 418.89$ 429.20$ 440.08$ 450.79$ 464.32$ 478.24$ 492.59$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 2,378$ 2,483$ 2,600$ 2,672$ 2,746$ 2,819$ 2,895$ 2,966$ 3,041$ 3,115$ 3,208$ 3,305$ 3,404$ POPULATION PER DU FACTOR 53 POPULATION CHANGE IN POPULATION 2.8 # of DU FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS) DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS) - COMMERCIAL (ACRES) 6.91 INDUSTRIAL (ACRES) - OFFICE (ACRES) - HOTEL (ACRES) EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 882.52$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 952.71$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 4,167.10$ POLICE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 898.41$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 376.83$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 422.97$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,479.61$ FIRE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 294.89$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC POPULATION PER DU FACTOR FY2032-33 FORECAST FY2033-34 FORECAST FY2034-35 FORECAST FY2035-36 FORECAST FY2037-38 FORECAST FY2038-39 FORECAST FY2039-40 FORECAST 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 1,943 1,867 1,898 1,878 1,833 1,794 1,750 694 667 678 671 655 641 625 123 119 120 119 116 114 111 571 548 558 552 539 527 514 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,524.75$ 1,562.87$ 1,601.94$ 1,641.99$ 1,683.04$ 1,725.12$ 1,768.25$ 1,646.03$ 1,687.18$ 1,729.36$ 1,772.59$ 1,816.91$ 1,862.33$ 1,908.89$ 7,199.60$ 7,379.59$ 7,564.08$ 7,753.18$ 7,947.01$ 8,145.69$ 8,349.33$ 1,552.21$ 1,591.02$ 1,630.79$ 1,671.56$ 1,713.35$ 1,756.18$ 1,800.09$ 10,726$ 10,994$ 11,269$ 11,550$ 11,839$ 12,135$ 12,439$ 648.34$ 667.79$ 687.82$ 708.45$ 729.71$ 751.60$ 774.15$ 727.73$ 749.56$ 772.05$ 795.21$ 819.07$ 843.64$ 868.95$ 2,545.69$ 2,622.06$ 2,700.72$ 2,781.74$ 2,865.20$ 2,951.15$ 3,039.69$ 507.37$ 522.59$ 538.27$ 554.42$ 571.05$ 588.18$ 605.83$ 3,506$ 3,611$ 3,719$ 3,831$ 3,946$ 4,064$ 4,186$ 54 Table - Public Safety Costs by Land Use Dwelling Type Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CV / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU 62,993,374$ Single Family Units 123,906,773 36,084 3,434 4,854 16,667,871 14.957%50.55%31,844,897$ 883$ Multi-Family Units 103,105,371 27,814 3,707 22,467 83,283,023 74.735%42.07%26,498,793$ 953$ Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 15,176,274 936 16,214 518 8,405,596 7.543%6.19%3,900,407$ 4,167$ Industrial/Office Acres 2,915,398 834 3,496 882 3,081,488 2.765%1.19%749,277$ 898$ Citywide Total 245,103,815 Dwelling Type Calls for Service (CFS) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CFS / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CFS Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU $ 33,055,258 Single Family Units 3,893 53629 0.0725947 4854 352.3746952 14.800%61.137%20,208,875$ 376.83$ Multi-Family Units 2,161 26516 0.08148433 22466.6667 1830.681368 76.890%33.930%11,215,526$ 422.97$ 6,054 Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 267 936 0.28504274 518.417 147.7709996 6.207%4.190%1,384,916$ 1,479.61$ Industrial/Office Acres 47 834 0.05681055 881.513 50.07923974 2.103%0.744%245,942$ 294.89$ 314 6,368 (1)Calls for Service include all calls for service responded to by the Fire Department during a one-year period. (2) Existing development data is per General Plan Update Fiscal Model. (3) Future development data is per March 2006 PFDIF Update - Development Forecast. (4) SDF - Service Demand Factor Police Calls for Service by Land Use Fire Calls for Service by Land Use 55 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE HOUSEHOLD POPULATION EMPLOYEES EMPLOYMENT RESIDENT EQUIVALENT (.05) 2012 244,408 37,218 12,220 2013 249,110 37,934 12,456 2014 253,812 38,650 12,691 2015 258,514 39,366 12,926 2016 263,216 40,082 13,161 2017 267,917 40,798 13,396 2018 268,060 40,820 13,403 2019*271,411 41,330 13,571 2020 282,375 43,000 14,119 2021 287,195 43,734 14,360 2022 292,015 44,468 14,601 2023 296,835 45,201 14,842 2024 301,655 45,935 15,083 2025 306,475 46,669 15,324 2026 311,295 47,403 15,565 2027 316,115 48,137 15,806 2028 320,935 48,871 16,047 2029 325,755 49,605 16,288 2030 330,575 50,339 16,529 2031 335,395 51,073 16,770 2032 340,215 51,807 17,011 2033 342,066 52,089 17,103 2034 343,844 52,360 17,192 2035 345,651 52,635 17,283 2036 347,440 52,907 17,372 2037 349,185 53,173 17,459 2038 350,894 53,433 17,545 2039 352,560 53,687 17,628 2040 354,241 53,943 17,712 2041 355,895 54,195 17,795 2042 357,524 54,443 17,876 2043 359,126 54,687 17,956 2044 360,683 54,924 18,034 2045 362,220 55,158 18,111 2046 363,786 55,397 18,189 2047 365,344 55,634 18,267 * As of 01/01/2019 Per State of California Department of Finance, Chula Vista Population is 271,411. 56 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT Per Capita Weighted Average FY2019-20 FORECAST FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax 160.05$ 37,371,038 38,860,000 40,330,000 41,820,000 43,370,000 44,920,000 46,580,000 48,060,000 TOTAL 37,371,038 38,860,000 40,330,000 41,820,000 43,370,000 44,920,000 46,580,000 48,060,000 Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 128.95$ 35,447,600 34,830,000 35,310,000 35,810,000 36,270,000 36,730,000 37,190,000 37,650,000 3020 Franchise Fees 49.12$ 12,205,678 12,520,000 12,860,000 13,200,000 13,540,000 13,890,000 14,230,000 14,580,000 3030 Utility Taxes 21.05$ 5,733,423 5,800,000 5,860,000 5,920,000 5,980,000 6,040,000 6,100,000 6,120,000 3040 Business License Tax 6.60$ 1,614,643 1,874,650 1,874,650 1,894,650 1,924,650 1,944,650 1,964,650 1,914,650 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 16.33$ 4,357,922 4,270,000 4,350,000 4,440,000 4,530,000 4,620,000 4,710,000 4,810,000 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax 4.57$ 1,173,550 1,197,021 1,220,961 1,245,381 1,270,288 1,295,694 1,321,608 1,348,040 TOTAL 60,532,816 60,491,671 61,475,611 62,510,031 63,514,938 64,520,344 65,516,258 66,422,690 Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 0.68$ 175,300 178,806 182,382 186,030 189,750 193,545 197,416 201,365 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 2.40$ 616,455 628,784 641,360 654,187 667,271 680,616 694,228 708,113 3140 Regulatory Permits 3.14$ 806,170 822,293 838,739 855,514 872,624 890,077 907,878 926,036 3160 Other Permits 0.05$ 14,000 14,280 14,566 14,857 15,154 15,457 15,766 16,082 TOTAL 1,611,925 1,644,164 1,677,047 1,710,588 1,744,799 1,779,695 1,815,289 1,851,595 Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 2.36$ 605,439 617,548 629,899 642,497 655,347 668,454 681,823 695,459 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 1.15$ 294,000 299,880 305,878 311,995 318,235 324,600 331,092 337,714 3240 Parking Penalties 0.97$ 250,000 255,000 260,100 265,302 270,608 276,020 281,541 287,171 3250 Other Penalties 0.46$ 118,000 120,360 122,767 125,223 127,727 130,282 132,887 135,545 TOTAL 1,267,439 1,292,788 1,318,644 1,345,016 1,371,917 1,399,355 1,427,342 1,455,889 Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3.12$ 802,000 818,040 834,401 851,089 868,111 885,473 903,182 921,246 3310 Sale of Real Property -$ - - - - - - - - 3320 Sale of Personal Property 0.01$ 3,000 3,060 3,121 3,184 3,247 3,312 3,378 3,446 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 1.07$ 274,847 280,344 285,951 291,670 297,503 303,453 309,522 315,713 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3.98$ 1,022,250 1,042,695 1,063,549 1,084,820 1,106,516 1,128,647 1,151,220 1,174,244 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings 3.75$ 963,130 982,393 1,002,040 1,022,081 1,042,523 1,063,373 1,084,641 1,106,334 TOTAL 3,065,227 3,126,532 3,189,062 3,252,843 3,317,900 3,384,258 3,451,943 3,520,982 Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 2.89$ 742,346 757,193 772,337 787,784 803,539 819,610 836,002 852,722 3440 State Tax Sharing 0.89$ 228,246 232,811 237,467 242,216 247,061 252,002 257,042 262,183 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License F 99.97$ 23,130,251 24,190,000 25,130,000 26,080,000 27,060,000 28,050,000 29,120,000 30,050,000 3480 State Reimbursements 0.52$ 133,799 136,475 139,204 141,989 144,828 147,725 150,679 153,693 3500 Federal Grants 1.79$ 460,440 469,649 479,042 488,623 498,395 508,363 518,530 528,901 3580 Federal Reimbursements 0.03$ 7,233 7,378 7,525 7,676 7,829 7,986 8,146 8,308 3600 Other Agency Grants 0.01$ 2,000 2,040 2,081 2,122 2,165 2,208 2,252 2,297 3690 Other Agency Revenue 2.38$ 610,000 622,200 634,644 647,337 660,284 673,489 686,959 700,698 TOTAL 25,314,315 26,417,745 27,402,300 28,397,746 29,424,101 30,461,383 31,579,611 32,558,803 Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 5.15$ 1,321,991 1,348,431 1,375,399 1,402,907 1,430,966 1,459,585 1,488,777 1,518,552 3720 Document Fees 2.60$ 668,824 682,200 695,844 709,761 723,957 738,436 753,204 768,269 3730 Plan Checking Fees 0.10$ 25,000 25,500 26,010 26,530 27,061 27,602 28,154 28,717 3740 Inspection Fees 1.60$ 412,000 420,240 428,645 437,218 445,962 454,881 463,979 473,258 3750 Filing Fees 0.16$ 41,000 41,820 42,656 43,510 44,380 45,267 46,173 47,096 3770 Other Dev Fees 0.03$ 6,600 6,732 6,867 7,004 7,144 7,287 7,433 7,581 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 1.06$ 273,200 278,664 284,237 289,922 295,720 301,635 307,668 313,821 3830 Services to the Port District 4.19$ 1,075,678 1,097,192 1,119,135 1,141,518 1,164,348 1,187,635 1,211,388 1,235,616 3900 Recreation Program Fees 5.71$ 1,464,886 1,494,184 1,524,067 1,554,549 1,585,640 1,617,353 1,649,700 1,682,694 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 11.36$ 2,915,823 2,974,139 3,033,622 3,094,295 3,156,181 3,219,304 3,283,690 3,349,364 4300 Fees for Other Services 0.18$ 46,000 46,920 47,858 48,816 49,792 50,788 51,803 52,840 TOTAL 8,251,002 8,416,022 8,584,342 8,756,029 8,931,150 9,109,773 9,291,968 9,477,808 Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 0.44$ 113,975 116,255 118,580 120,951 123,370 125,838 128,354 130,921 4420 Transit Reimbursements 0.27$ 70,000 71,400 72,828 74,285 75,770 77,286 78,831 80,408 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 0.01$ 1,800 1,836 1,873 1,910 1,948 1,987 2,027 2,068 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 7.31$ 1,876,001 1,913,521 1,951,791 1,990,827 2,030,644 2,071,257 2,112,682 2,154,935 4450 CIP Reimbursements 20.80$ 5,341,549 5,448,380 5,557,348 5,668,495 5,781,864 5,897,502 6,015,452 6,135,761 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 0.23$ 60,100 61,302 62,528 63,779 65,054 66,355 67,682 69,036 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 11.60$ 2,979,570 3,039,161 3,099,945 3,161,944 3,225,182 3,289,686 3,355,480 3,422,589 4600 Assessments 0.61$ 157,780 160,936 164,154 167,437 170,786 174,202 177,686 181,240 4700 Collection Charges 2.44$ 626,270 638,795 651,571 664,603 677,895 691,453 705,282 719,387 4800 Sale of Goods 0.01$ 2,650 2,703 2,757 2,812 2,868 2,926 2,984 3,044 4900 Other Revenue 5.92$ 713,065 1,200,000 1,320,000 1,440,000 1,560,000 1,680,000 1,760,000 1,860,000 TOTAL 11,942,760 12,654,289 13,003,375 13,357,042 13,715,383 14,078,491 14,406,460 14,759,390 TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 600.11$ 149,356,522 152,903,210 156,980,381 161,149,296 165,390,189 169,653,300 174,068,873 178,107,157 57 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax TOTAL Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 3020 Franchise Fees 3030 Utility Taxes 3040 Business License Tax 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax TOTAL Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 3140 Regulatory Permits 3160 Other Permits TOTAL Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 3240 Parking Penalties 3250 Other Penalties TOTAL Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3310 Sale of Real Property 3320 Sale of Personal Property 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings TOTAL Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 3440 State Tax Sharing 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License 3480 State Reimbursements 3500 Federal Grants 3580 Federal Reimbursements 3600 Other Agency Grants 3690 Other Agency Revenue TOTAL Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 3720 Document Fees 3730 Plan Checking Fees 3740 Inspection Fees 3750 Filing Fees 3770 Other Dev Fees 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 3830 Services to the Port District 3900 Recreation Program Fees 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 4300 Fees for Other Services TOTAL Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 4420 Transit Reimbursements 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 4450 CIP Reimbursements 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 4600 Assessments 4700 Collection Charges 4800 Sale of Goods 4900 Other Revenue TOTAL TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 352,165 FY2019-20 FORECAST FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST FY2027-28 FORECAST (3%) FY2028-29 FORECAST (3%) FY2029-30 FORECAST (3%) FY2030-31 FORECAST (3%) 126.04$ 128.87$ 131.53$ 134.18$ 136.93$ 139.59$ 142.51$ 144.79$ 149.14$ 153.61$ 158.22$ 162.97$ 119.56$ 115.50$ 115.16$ 114.89$ 114.51$ 114.14$ 113.78$ 113.43$ 116.83$ 120.34$ 123.95$ 127.67$ 41.17$ 41.52$ 41.94$ 42.35$ 42.75$ 43.16$ 43.54$ 43.93$ 45.24$ 46.60$ 48.00$ 49.44$ 19.34$ 19.23$ 19.11$ 18.99$ 18.88$ 18.77$ 18.66$ 18.44$ 18.99$ 19.56$ 20.15$ 20.75$ 5.45$ 6.22$ 6.11$ 6.08$ 6.08$ 6.04$ 6.01$ 5.77$ 5.94$ 6.12$ 6.30$ 6.49$ 14.70$ 14.16$ 14.19$ 14.25$ 14.30$ 14.36$ 14.41$ 14.49$ 14.93$ 15.37$ 15.84$ 16.31$ 3.96$ 3.97$ 3.98$ 4.00$ 4.01$ 4.03$ 4.04$ 4.06$ 4.18$ 4.31$ 4.44$ 4.57$ 0.59$ 0.59$ 0.59$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.61$ 0.62$ 0.64$ 0.66$ 0.68$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.11$ 2.12$ 2.12$ 2.13$ 2.20$ 2.26$ 2.33$ 2.40$ 2.72$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.74$ 2.76$ 2.77$ 2.78$ 2.79$ 2.87$ 2.96$ 3.05$ 3.14$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 2.04$ 2.05$ 2.05$ 2.06$ 2.07$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.16$ 2.22$ 2.29$ 2.36$ 0.99$ 0.99$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.01$ 1.01$ 1.02$ 1.05$ 1.08$ 1.11$ 1.15$ 0.84$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.86$ 0.86$ 0.87$ 0.89$ 0.92$ 0.95$ 0.97$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.41$ 0.41$ 0.42$ 0.43$ 0.45$ 0.46$ 2.70$ 2.71$ 2.72$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.75$ 2.76$ 2.78$ 2.86$ 2.94$ 3.03$ 3.12$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.95$ 0.95$ 0.98$ 1.01$ 1.04$ 1.07$ 3.45$ 3.46$ 3.47$ 3.48$ 3.49$ 3.51$ 3.52$ 3.54$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 3.87$ 3.98$ 3.25$ 3.26$ 3.27$ 3.28$ 3.29$ 3.30$ 3.32$ 3.33$ 3.43$ 3.54$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 2.50$ 2.51$ 2.52$ 2.53$ 2.54$ 2.55$ 2.56$ 2.57$ 2.65$ 2.73$ 2.81$ 2.89$ 0.77$ 0.77$ 0.77$ 0.78$ 0.78$ 0.78$ 0.79$ 0.79$ 0.81$ 0.84$ 0.86$ 0.89$ 78.01$ 80.22$ 81.96$ 83.68$ 85.43$ 87.17$ 89.09$ 90.53$ 93.25$ 96.05$ 98.93$ 101.90$ 0.45$ 0.45$ 0.45$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.48$ 0.49$ 0.51$ 0.52$ 1.55$ 1.56$ 1.56$ 1.57$ 1.57$ 1.58$ 1.59$ 1.59$ 1.64$ 1.69$ 1.74$ 1.79$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.06$ 2.06$ 2.07$ 2.08$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.11$ 2.17$ 2.24$ 2.31$ 2.38$ 4.46$ 4.47$ 4.49$ 4.50$ 4.52$ 4.54$ 4.55$ 4.58$ 4.71$ 4.85$ 5.00$ 5.15$ 2.26$ 2.26$ 2.27$ 2.28$ 2.29$ 2.29$ 2.30$ 2.31$ 2.38$ 2.46$ 2.53$ 2.61$ 0.08$ 0.08$ 0.08$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.10$ 1.39$ 1.39$ 1.40$ 1.40$ 1.41$ 1.41$ 1.42$ 1.43$ 1.47$ 1.51$ 1.56$ 1.60$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.15$ 0.15$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.03$ 0.92$ 0.92$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.95$ 0.97$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 3.63$ 3.64$ 3.65$ 3.66$ 3.68$ 3.69$ 3.71$ 3.72$ 3.83$ 3.95$ 4.07$ 4.19$ 4.94$ 4.95$ 4.97$ 4.99$ 5.01$ 5.03$ 5.05$ 5.07$ 5.22$ 5.38$ 5.54$ 5.71$ 9.83$ 9.86$ 9.89$ 9.93$ 9.96$ 10.00$ 10.05$ 10.09$ 10.39$ 10.71$ 11.03$ 11.36$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.17$ 0.17$ 0.18$ 0.38$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.41$ 0.42$ 0.43$ 0.44$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.25$ 0.26$ 0.26$ 0.27$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 6.33$ 6.35$ 6.37$ 6.39$ 6.41$ 6.44$ 6.46$ 6.49$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.09$ 7.31$ 18.02$ 18.07$ 18.12$ 18.19$ 18.25$ 18.33$ 18.40$ 18.49$ 19.04$ 19.61$ 20.20$ 20.81$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.22$ 0.23$ 0.23$ 10.05$ 10.08$ 10.11$ 10.14$ 10.18$ 10.22$ 10.27$ 10.31$ 10.62$ 10.94$ 11.27$ 11.61$ 0.53$ 0.53$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.55$ 0.56$ 0.58$ 0.60$ 0.61$ 2.11$ 2.12$ 2.13$ 2.13$ 2.14$ 2.15$ 2.16$ 2.17$ 2.23$ 2.30$ 2.37$ 2.44$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.40$ 3.98$ 4.31$ 4.62$ 4.93$ 5.22$ 5.38$ 5.60$ 5.77$ 5.95$ 6.12$ 6.31$ 503.74$ 507.05$ 511.98$ 517.04$ 522.17$ 527.20$ 532.55$ 536.60$ 552.69$ 569.27$ 586.35$ 603.94$ 58 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax TOTAL Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 3020 Franchise Fees 3030 Utility Taxes 3040 Business License Tax 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax TOTAL Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 3140 Regulatory Permits 3160 Other Permits TOTAL Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 3240 Parking Penalties 3250 Other Penalties TOTAL Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3310 Sale of Real Property 3320 Sale of Personal Property 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings TOTAL Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 3440 State Tax Sharing 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License 3480 State Reimbursements 3500 Federal Grants 3580 Federal Reimbursements 3600 Other Agency Grants 3690 Other Agency Revenue TOTAL Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 3720 Document Fees 3730 Plan Checking Fees 3740 Inspection Fees 3750 Filing Fees 3770 Other Dev Fees 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 3830 Services to the Port District 3900 Recreation Program Fees 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 4300 Fees for Other Services TOTAL Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 4420 Transit Reimbursements 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 4450 CIP Reimbursements 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 4600 Assessments 4700 Collection Charges 4800 Sale of Goods 4900 Other Revenue TOTAL TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 357,226 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 FY2031-32 FORECAST (3%) FY2032-33 FORECAST (3%) FY2033-34 FORECAST (3%) FY2034-35 FORECAST (3%) FY2035-36 FORECAST (3%) FY2037-38 FORECAST (3%) FY2038-39 FORECAST (3%) FY2039-40 FORECAST (3%) 167.86$ 172.89$ 178.08$ 183.42$ 188.92$ 194.59$ 200.43$ 206.44$ 131.50$ 135.44$ 139.51$ 143.69$ 148.00$ 152.44$ 157.01$ 161.73$ 50.92$ 52.45$ 54.02$ 55.64$ 57.31$ 59.03$ 60.80$ 62.63$ 21.37$ 22.02$ 22.68$ 23.36$ 24.06$ 24.78$ 25.52$ 26.29$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.09$ 7.31$ 7.53$ 7.75$ 7.98$ 8.22$ 16.80$ 17.30$ 17.82$ 18.36$ 18.91$ 19.48$ 20.06$ 20.66$ 4.71$ 4.85$ 4.99$ 5.14$ 5.30$ 5.46$ 5.62$ 5.79$ 0.70$ 0.72$ 0.75$ 0.77$ 0.79$ 0.82$ 0.84$ 0.86$ 2.47$ 2.55$ 2.62$ 2.70$ 2.78$ 2.87$ 2.95$ 3.04$ 3.23$ 3.33$ 3.43$ 3.53$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 3.86$ 3.98$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.07$ 0.07$ 0.07$ 2.43$ 2.50$ 2.58$ 2.65$ 2.73$ 2.82$ 2.90$ 2.99$ 1.18$ 1.21$ 1.25$ 1.29$ 1.33$ 1.37$ 1.41$ 1.45$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 1.10$ 1.13$ 1.16$ 1.20$ 1.23$ 0.47$ 0.49$ 0.50$ 0.52$ 0.53$ 0.55$ 0.57$ 0.58$ 3.22$ 3.31$ 3.41$ 3.52$ 3.62$ 3.73$ 3.84$ 3.96$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 1.10$ 1.14$ 1.17$ 1.20$ 1.24$ 1.28$ 1.32$ 1.36$ 4.10$ 4.22$ 4.35$ 4.48$ 4.62$ 4.75$ 4.90$ 5.04$ 3.86$ 3.98$ 4.10$ 4.22$ 4.35$ 4.48$ 4.61$ 4.75$ 2.98$ 3.07$ 3.16$ 3.25$ 3.35$ 3.45$ 3.56$ 3.66$ 0.92$ 0.94$ 0.97$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 1.09$ 1.13$ 104.95$ 108.10$ 111.34$ 114.69$ 118.13$ 121.67$ 125.32$ 129.08$ 0.54$ 0.55$ 0.57$ 0.59$ 0.60$ 0.62$ 0.64$ 0.66$ 1.85$ 1.90$ 1.96$ 2.02$ 2.08$ 2.14$ 2.21$ 2.27$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.04$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.45$ 2.52$ 2.60$ 2.67$ 2.75$ 2.84$ 2.92$ 3.01$ 5.30$ 5.46$ 5.63$ 5.80$ 5.97$ 6.15$ 6.33$ 6.52$ 2.68$ 2.76$ 2.85$ 2.93$ 3.02$ 3.11$ 3.20$ 3.30$ 0.10$ 0.10$ 0.11$ 0.11$ 0.11$ 0.12$ 0.12$ 0.12$ 1.65$ 1.70$ 1.75$ 1.81$ 1.86$ 1.92$ 1.97$ 2.03$ 0.16$ 0.17$ 0.17$ 0.18$ 0.19$ 0.19$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 1.10$ 1.13$ 1.16$ 1.20$ 1.23$ 1.27$ 1.31$ 1.35$ 4.32$ 4.45$ 4.58$ 4.72$ 4.86$ 5.00$ 5.15$ 5.31$ 5.88$ 6.05$ 6.23$ 6.42$ 6.61$ 6.81$ 7.02$ 7.23$ 11.70$ 12.05$ 12.41$ 12.78$ 13.17$ 13.56$ 13.97$ 14.39$ 0.18$ 0.19$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.22$ 0.23$ 0.46$ 0.47$ 0.49$ 0.50$ 0.51$ 0.53$ 0.55$ 0.56$ 0.28$ 0.29$ 0.30$ 0.31$ 0.32$ 0.33$ 0.34$ 0.35$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 7.53$ 7.75$ 7.98$ 8.22$ 8.47$ 8.73$ 8.99$ 9.26$ 21.43$ 22.07$ 22.73$ 23.42$ 24.12$ 24.84$ 25.59$ 26.36$ 0.24$ 0.25$ 0.26$ 0.26$ 0.27$ 0.28$ 0.29$ 0.30$ 11.95$ 12.31$ 12.68$ 13.06$ 13.45$ 13.86$ 14.27$ 14.70$ 0.63$ 0.65$ 0.67$ 0.69$ 0.71$ 0.73$ 0.76$ 0.78$ 2.51$ 2.59$ 2.67$ 2.75$ 2.83$ 2.91$ 3.00$ 3.09$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 6.50$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.10$ 7.31$ 7.53$ 7.76$ 7.99$ 622.06$ 640.72$ 659.94$ 679.74$ 700.14$ 721.14$ 742.77$ 765.06$ 59 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE Weighted Average FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 Household Population 282,375 287,195 292,015 296,835 301,655 306,475 311,295 316,115 320,935 325,755 330,575 Employment Population (Per Capita Equiv) 14,119 14,360 14,601 14,842 15,083 15,324 15,565 15,806 16,047 16,288 16,529 Total Population 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 Per Capita by Category: General Government 71.25$ 61.25$ 62.03$ 62.84$ 63.67$ 64.53$ 65.42$ 66.34$ 67.29$ 68.27$ 69.28$ 70.31$ Community Development 12.59 10.82 10.96 11.10 11.25 11.40 11.56 11.72 11.89 12.06 12.24 12.42 Public Works/Engineering 55.62 47.95 48.90 49.49 50.09 50.67 51.29 51.94 52.56 53.24 53.90 54.71 Community Services 60.81 52.27 52.94 53.63 54.34 55.07 55.83 56.62 57.43 58.26 59.12 60.01 Public Safety: Police Services 270.13 212.46 221.00 226.49 232.03 237.80 243.66 249.80 255.69 261.81 267.92 271.93 Fire Services 130.97 111.49 114.46 117.89 119.20 120.50 121.79 123.10 124.21 125.45 126.60 128.49 Animal Control Services 11.31 9.72 9.85 9.97 10.11 10.24 10.39 10.53 10.68 10.84 11.00 11.16 Total Public Safety 412.41 333.67 345.31 354.36 361.34 368.54 375.83 383.43 390.58 398.09 405.51 411.59 Total General Fund Expenditures 612.68$ 505.97$ 520.14$ 531.41$ 540.68$ 550.22$ 559.94$ 570.05$ 579.75$ 589.92$ 600.05$ 609.04$ Per Capita by Department: City Council 2.56 2.20$ 2.23$ 2.26$ 2.29$ 2.32$ 2.35$ 2.38$ 2.42$ 2.45$ 2.49$ 2.52$ Boards & Commissions 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 City Clerk 4.09 3.52 3.56 3.61 3.65 3.70 3.76 3.81 3.86 3.92 3.98 4.04 City Attorney 12.86 11.05 11.20 11.34 11.49 11.65 11.81 11.97 12.15 12.32 12.50 12.69 Administration 8.46 7.27 7.36 7.46 7.56 7.66 7.76 7.87 7.99 8.10 8.22 8.34 Info Tech Services 15.23 13.09 13.26 13.43 13.61 13.79 13.98 14.18 14.38 14.59 14.80 15.03 Human Resources 12.11 10.41 10.54 10.68 10.82 10.97 11.12 11.28 11.44 11.60 11.78 11.95 Finance 15.90 13.67 13.84 14.02 14.21 14.40 14.60 14.81 15.02 15.24 15.46 15.69 Non-Departmental - - - - - - - - - - - - Animal Care Facility 11.31 9.72 9.85 9.97 10.11 10.24 10.39 10.53 10.68 10.84 11.00 11.16 Economic Development 8.65 7.44 7.53 7.63 7.73 7.84 7.94 8.06 8.17 8.29 8.41 8.54 Planning & Building 3.93 3.38 3.43 3.47 3.52 3.56 3.61 3.66 3.72 3.77 3.83 3.88 Engineering/CIP Projects 36.60 31.47 31.87 32.28 32.71 33.15 33.61 34.08 34.57 35.07 35.59 36.12 Police 270.13 212.46 221.00 226.49 232.03 237.80 243.66 249.80 255.69 261.81 267.92 271.93 Fire 130.97 111.49 114.46 117.89 119.20 120.50 121.79 123.10 124.21 125.45 126.60 128.49 Public Works 19.01 16.49 17.04 17.21 17.38 17.52 17.68 17.86 18.00 18.16 18.31 18.58 Recreation 44.35 38.12 38.61 39.11 39.63 40.17 40.72 41.29 41.88 42.49 43.12 43.77 Library 16.46 14.15 14.33 14.52 14.71 14.91 15.11 15.33 15.54 15.77 16.00 16.24 General Fund Totals 612.68$ 505.97$ 520.14$ 531.41$ 540.68$ 550.22$ 559.94$ 570.05$ 579.75$ 589.92$ 600.05$ 609.04$ 60 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE Weighted Average FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FULL FISCAL IMPACT - FORECAST FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 General Government 18,160,487 18,705,302 19,266,461 19,844,455 20,439,789 21,052,982 21,684,572 22,335,109 23,005,162 23,695,317 24,406,177 Community Development 3,208,062 3,304,304 3,403,433 3,505,536 3,610,702 3,719,023 3,830,594 3,945,512 4,063,877 4,185,794 4,311,367 Public Works/Engineering 14,217,621 14,747,185 15,175,755 15,611,689 16,049,950 16,505,765 16,976,996 17,446,944 17,939,238 18,435,310 18,988,369 Community Services 15,498,905 15,963,872 16,442,789 16,936,072 17,444,154 17,967,479 18,506,503 19,061,699 19,633,550 20,222,556 20,829,233 Public Safety: Police Services 62,993,374 66,643,363 69,445,105 72,319,470 75,320,061 78,408,743 81,648,090 84,868,480 88,225,442 91,639,078 94,388,250 Fire Services 33,055,258 34,516,650 36,148,007 37,150,475 38,166,592 39,191,500 40,237,679 41,227,647 42,272,838 43,301,909 44,600,967 Animal Control Services 2,882,814 2,969,298 3,058,377 3,150,129 3,244,633 3,341,972 3,442,231 3,545,498 3,651,863 3,761,418 3,874,261 Total Public Safety 98,931,446 104,129,311 108,651,490 112,620,074 116,731,286 120,942,215 125,328,000 129,641,625 134,150,143 138,702,406 142,863,478 Total General Fund Expenditures 150,016,522 156,849,974 162,939,928 168,517,826 174,275,881 180,187,464 186,326,665 192,430,888 198,791,969 205,241,382 211,398,623 DEPARTMENT NAME CITY COUNCIL 3.59%651,797 671,350 691,491 712,236 733,603 755,611 778,279 801,628 825,676 850,447 875,960 BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS 0.07%12,074 12,436 12,809 13,193 13,589 13,997 14,417 14,849 15,295 15,754 16,226 CITY CLERK 5.25%1,042,495 1,073,770 1,105,983 1,139,163 1,173,338 1,208,538 1,244,794 1,282,138 1,320,602 1,360,220 1,401,027 CITY ATTORNEY 16.61%3,277,722 3,376,054 3,477,336 3,581,656 3,689,105 3,799,779 3,913,772 4,031,185 4,152,121 4,276,684 4,404,985 ADMINISTRATION 11.41%2,155,103 2,219,756 2,286,349 2,354,939 2,425,588 2,498,355 2,573,306 2,650,505 2,730,020 2,811,921 2,896,278 INFO TECH SRVCS 21.07%3,881,057 3,997,488 4,117,413 4,240,936 4,368,164 4,499,208 4,634,185 4,773,210 4,916,407 5,063,899 5,215,816 HUMAN RESOURCES 15.47%3,086,826 3,179,431 3,274,813 3,373,058 3,474,250 3,578,477 3,685,831 3,796,406 3,910,299 4,027,607 4,148,436 FINANCE 21.14%4,053,414 4,175,016 4,300,266 4,429,274 4,562,153 4,699,017 4,839,988 4,985,187 5,134,743 5,288,785 5,447,449 NON-DEPARTMENTAL 0.00%- - - - - - - - - - - ANIMAL CARE FACILITY 2,882,814 2,969,298 3,058,377 3,150,129 3,244,633 3,341,972 3,442,231 3,545,498 3,651,863 3,761,418 3,874,261 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 68.74%2,205,269 2,271,428 2,339,570 2,409,757 2,482,050 2,556,512 2,633,207 2,712,203 2,793,569 2,877,376 2,963,698 PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICE 31.26%1,002,793 1,032,877 1,063,863 1,095,779 1,128,652 1,162,512 1,197,387 1,233,309 1,270,308 1,308,417 1,347,670 ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS 65.62%9,329,383 9,609,265 9,897,543 10,194,469 10,500,303 10,815,312 11,139,772 11,473,965 11,818,184 12,172,729 12,537,911 POLICE 62,993,374 66,643,363 69,445,105 72,319,470 75,320,061 78,408,743 81,648,090 84,868,480 88,225,442 91,639,078 94,388,250 FIRE 33,055,258 34,516,650 36,148,007 37,150,475 38,166,592 39,191,500 40,237,679 41,227,647 42,272,838 43,301,909 44,600,967 PUBLIC WORKS 54.48%4,888,237 5,137,920 5,278,213 5,417,220 5,549,646 5,690,452 5,837,224 5,972,980 6,121,054 6,262,580 6,450,458 RECREATION 53.71%11,303,651 11,642,760 11,992,043 12,351,804 12,722,358 13,104,029 13,497,150 13,902,065 14,319,126 14,748,700 15,191,161 LIBRARY 46.29%4,195,255 4,321,112 4,450,746 4,584,268 4,721,796 4,863,450 5,009,353 5,159,634 5,314,423 5,473,856 5,638,071 GENERAL FUND TOTALS 150,016,522 156,849,974 162,939,928 168,517,826 174,275,881 180,187,464 186,326,665 192,430,888 198,791,969 205,241,382 211,398,623 - - - - - - - - - - - 61 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORN SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITU PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABL Household Population Employment Population (Per Capita Equiv) Total Population Per Capita by Category: General Government Community Development Public Works/Engineering Community Services Public Safety: Police Services Fire Services Animal Control Services Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Per Capita by Department: City Council Boards & Commissions City Clerk City Attorney Administration Info Tech Services Human Resources Finance Non-Departmental Animal Care Facility Economic Development Planning & Building Engineering/CIP Projects Police Fire Public Works Recreation Library General Fund Totals FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 335,395 340,215 342,066 343,844 345,651 347,440 349,185 350,894 352,560 16,770 17,011 17,103 17,192 17,283 17,372 17,459 17,545 17,628 352,165 357,226 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 71.38$ 72.48$ 74.25$ 76.08$ 77.96$ 79.88$ 81.87$ 83.91$ 86.02$ 12.61 12.80 13.12 13.44 13.77 14.11 14.46 14.82 15.20 55.54 56.39 57.77 59.20 60.65 62.15 63.69 65.29 66.93 60.92 61.86 63.37 64.93 66.53 68.18 69.87 71.62 73.42 276.06 280.32 287.16 294.25 301.49 308.94 316.62 324.53 332.68 130.45 132.46 135.69 139.04 142.46 145.98 149.61 153.35 157.20 11.33 11.51 11.79 12.08 12.38 12.68 13.00 13.32 13.66 417.84 424.28 434.64 445.37 456.33 467.60 479.22 491.20 503.54 618.29$ 627.82$ 643.15$ 659.02$ 675.25$ 691.92$ 709.12$ 726.83$ 745.10$ 2.56$ 2.60$ 2.66$ 2.73$ 2.80$ 2.87$ 2.94$ 3.01$ 3.09$ 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 4.10 4.16 4.26 4.37 4.48 4.59 4.70 4.82 4.94 12.88 13.08 13.40 13.73 14.07 14.42 14.78 15.15 15.53 8.47 8.60 8.81 9.03 9.25 9.48 9.72 9.96 10.21 15.26 15.49 15.87 16.26 16.66 17.07 17.50 17.93 18.38 12.13 12.32 12.62 12.93 13.25 13.58 13.92 14.26 14.62 15.93 16.18 16.57 16.98 17.40 17.83 18.27 18.73 19.20 - - - - - - - - - 11.33 11.51 11.79 12.08 12.38 12.68 13.00 13.32 13.66 8.67 8.80 9.02 9.24 9.47 9.70 9.94 10.19 10.45 3.94 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.41 4.52 4.63 4.75 36.67 37.24 38.15 39.09 40.05 41.04 42.06 43.11 44.19 276.06 280.32 287.16 294.25 301.49 308.94 316.62 324.53 332.68 130.45 132.46 135.69 139.04 142.46 145.98 149.61 153.35 157.20 18.87 19.16 19.62 20.11 20.60 21.11 21.64 22.18 22.74 44.43 45.12 46.22 47.36 48.52 49.72 50.96 52.23 53.54 16.49 16.74 17.15 17.58 18.01 18.45 18.91 19.38 19.87 618.29$ 627.82$ 643.15$ 659.02$ 675.25$ 691.92$ 709.12$ 726.83$ 745.10$ 62 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORN SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITU PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABL FULL FISCAL IMPACT - FORECA General Government Community Development Public Works/Engineering Community Services Public Safety: Police Services Fire Services Animal Control Serv Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expend DEPARTMENT NAME CITY COUNCIL BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS CITY CLERK CITY ATTORNEY ADMINISTRATION INFO TECH SRVCS HUMAN RESOURCES FINANCE NON-DEPARTMENTAL ANIMAL CARE FACILITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICE ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS POLICE FIRE PUBLIC WORKS RECREATION LIBRARY GENERAL FUND TOTALS FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 25,138,362 25,892,513 26,669,288 27,469,367 28,293,448 29,142,251 30,016,519 30,917,014 31,844,525 4,440,708 4,573,930 4,711,148 4,852,482 4,998,056 5,147,998 5,302,438 5,461,511 5,625,357 19,558,020 20,144,761 20,749,103 21,371,577 22,012,724 22,673,106 23,353,299 24,053,898 24,775,515 21,454,110 22,097,733 22,760,665 23,443,485 24,146,789 24,871,193 25,617,329 26,385,849 27,177,424 97,219,898 100,136,494 103,140,589 106,234,807 109,421,851 112,704,507 116,085,642 119,568,211 123,155,257 45,938,996 47,317,166 48,736,681 50,198,781 51,704,744 53,255,887 54,853,563 56,499,170 58,194,145 3,990,489 4,110,203 4,233,510 4,360,515 4,491,330 4,626,070 4,764,852 4,907,798 5,055,032 147,149,382 151,563,863 156,110,779 160,794,103 165,617,926 170,586,464 175,704,058 180,975,179 186,404,435 217,740,582 224,272,799 231,000,983 237,931,013 245,068,943 252,421,012 259,993,642 267,793,451 275,827,255 902,239 929,306 957,185 985,901 1,015,478 1,045,942 1,077,320 1,109,640 1,142,929 16,713 17,214 17,731 18,263 18,811 19,375 19,956 20,555 21,172 1,443,057 1,486,349 1,530,940 1,576,868 1,624,174 1,672,899 1,723,086 1,774,778 1,828,022 4,537,134 4,673,248 4,813,446 4,957,849 5,106,585 5,259,782 5,417,576 5,580,103 5,747,506 2,983,167 3,072,662 3,164,842 3,259,787 3,357,581 3,458,308 3,562,057 3,668,919 3,778,986 5,372,290 5,533,459 5,699,463 5,870,447 6,046,560 6,227,957 6,414,795 6,607,239 6,805,457 4,272,889 4,401,075 4,533,108 4,669,101 4,809,174 4,953,449 5,102,053 5,255,114 5,412,768 5,610,872 5,779,199 5,952,575 6,131,152 6,315,086 6,504,539 6,699,675 6,900,665 7,107,685 - - - - - - - - - 3,990,489 4,110,203 4,233,510 4,360,515 4,491,330 4,626,070 4,764,852 4,907,798 5,055,032 3,052,609 3,144,187 3,238,513 3,335,668 3,435,738 3,538,810 3,644,974 3,754,324 3,866,953 1,388,100 1,429,743 1,472,635 1,516,814 1,562,319 1,609,188 1,657,464 1,707,188 1,758,403 12,914,048 13,301,470 13,700,514 14,111,529 14,534,875 14,970,922 15,420,049 15,882,651 16,359,130 97,219,898 100,136,494 103,140,589 106,234,807 109,421,851 112,704,507 116,085,642 119,568,211 123,155,257 45,938,996 47,317,166 48,736,681 50,198,781 51,704,744 53,255,887 54,853,563 56,499,170 58,194,145 6,643,972 6,843,291 7,048,589 7,260,047 7,477,849 7,702,184 7,933,249 8,171,247 8,416,384 15,646,896 16,116,303 16,599,792 17,097,786 17,610,719 18,139,041 18,683,212 19,243,709 19,821,020 5,807,214 5,981,430 6,160,873 6,345,699 6,536,070 6,732,152 6,934,117 7,142,140 7,356,404 217,740,582 224,272,799 231,000,983 237,931,013 245,068,943 252,421,012 259,993,642 267,793,451 275,827,255 - - - - - - - - - 63 FUNCTIONAL AREA RECONCILED ITEMS TO PUBLISHED BUDGET PERSONNEL SERVICES SUPPLIES & SERVICES UTILITIES OTHER OPERATING CAPITAL XFERS OUT INTERNAL SERVICE CHARGES AMENDED FY2019- 20 TOTAL ELIMINATION ENTRY RECLASS NON- DEPARTMENTAL COSTS RECLASS NON- DEPARTMENTAL COSTS REVISED TOTALS TRANSFERS IN City 10 Year Model REVISED TOTALS General Government 15,592,728$ 2,924,966$ 20,259$ -$ 123,915$ -$ -$ 18,661,868$ -$ -$ 454,715$ 19,116,583$ (956,096) - 18,160,487$ Community Development 4,621,535 343,316 4,872 12,000 2,020 - 23,635 5,007,378 - - 124,332 5,131,710 (1,923,648) - 3,208,062 Public Works/Engineering 16,361,728 1,792,632 1,457,593 123,500 150,171 386,611 609,443 20,881,678 - - 673,694 21,555,372 (7,687,751) 350,000 14,217,621 Community Services 10,814,949 1,185,597 2,881,712 81,300 2,523 - 324,262 15,290,343 - - 208,562 15,498,905 - - 15,498,905 Public Safety - Police Services3 54,776,784 2,010,850 412,372 103,243 - - 1,000,423 58,303,672 - 2,233,778 1,413,564 61,951,014 (587,640) 1,630,000 62,993,374 Fire Services4 28,491,107 2,131,858 193,717 - - 62,326 955,878 31,834,886 - -703,874 32,538,760 (1,143,502) 1,660,000 33,055,258 Animal Control Services 2,348,400 351,949 42,296 4,500 6,282 - 53,200 2,806,627 - -76,187 2,882,814 - - 2,882,814 Non-Departmental (153,983) 1,668,697 3,984 454,622 - 42,207,075 - 44,180,395 (36,767,305) (2,233,778) (3,654,929) 1,524,383 (1,524,383) - - 132,853,248$ 12,409,865$ 5,016,805$ 779,165$ 284,911$ 42,656,012$ 2,966,841$ 196,966,847$ (36,767,305)$ -$ -$ 160,199,542$ (13,823,020)$ 3,640,000$ 150,016,522$ FY2019-20 ADOPTED FY2019- 20 DEPT DEPARTMENT NAME PERSONNEL SERVICES SUPPLIES & SERVICES UTILITIES OTHER OPERATING CAPITAL XFERS OUT INTERNAL SERVICE CHARGES TOTAL ELIMINATION ENTRY AND 1ST QUARTER ADJUSTMENTS RECLASS FOR POLICE SPREAD REVISED TOTALS TRANSFERS IN City 10 Year Model REVISED TOTALS 01100 CITY COUNCIL 1,456,659$ 105,880$ 1,307$ -$ 3,190$ -$ -$ 1,567,036$ 40,857 1,607,893$ (956,096) - 651,797$ 02000 BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS - 11,841 - - - - - 11,841 - 233 12,074 - - 12,074 03000 CITY CLERK 858,657 159,285 688 - - - - 1,018,630 23,865 1,042,495 - - 1,042,495 04000 CITY ATTORNEY 2,886,587 308,800 1,856 - 4,948 - - 3,202,191 75,531 3,277,722 - - 3,277,722 05000 ADMINISTRATION 1,948,791 150,187 832 - 3,416 - - 2,103,226 51,877 2,155,103 - - 2,155,103 06000 INFO TECH SRVCS 2,349,498 1,335,947 11,907 - 87,890 - - 3,785,242 95,815 3,881,057 - - 3,881,057 07000 HUMAN RESOURCES 2,587,023 418,970 1,457 - 8,972 - - 3,016,422 - 70,404 3,086,826 - - 3,086,826 08000 FINANCE 3,505,513 434,056 2,212 - 15,499 - - 3,957,280 96,134 4,053,414 - - 4,053,414 09000 NON-DEPARTMENTAL (153,983) 1,668,697 3,984 454,622 - 42,207,075 - 44,180,395 (36,767,305) (2,233,778) (3,654,929) 1,524,383 (1,524,383) - - 10000 ANIMAL CARE FACILITY 2,348,400 351,949 42,296 4,500 6,282 - 53,200 2,806,627 76,187 2,882,814 - - 2,882,814 11000 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1,977,144 168,422 2,497 - 1,520 - - 2,149,583 - 55,686 2,205,269 - - 2,205,269 12000 PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICES 2,644,391 174,894 2,375 12,000 500 - 23,635 2,857,795 - 68,646 2,926,441 (1,923,648) - 1,002,793 13000 ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS 7,229,662 366,083 863,671 108,500 10,000 386,611 144,695 9,109,222 220,161 9,329,383 - - 9,329,383 14000 POLICE 54,776,784 2,010,850 412,372 103,243 - - 1,000,423 58,303,672 - 2,233,778 1,413,564 61,951,014 (587,640) 1,630,000 62,993,374 15000 FIRE 28,491,107 2,131,858 193,717 - - 62,326 955,878 31,834,886 703,874 32,538,760 (1,143,502) 1,660,000 33,055,258 16000 PUBLIC WORKS 9,132,066 1,426,549 593,922 15,000 140,171 - 464,748 11,772,456 453,532 12,225,988 (7,687,751) 350,000 4,888,237 17000 RECREATION 7,219,052 959,603 2,608,646 80,900 2,523 - 320,917 11,191,641 112,010 11,303,651 - - 11,303,651 18000 LIBRARY 3,595,897 225,994 273,066 400 - - 3,345 4,098,702 - 96,553 4,195,255 - - 4,195,255 GENERAL FUND TOTALS 132,853,248$ 12,409,865$ 5,016,805$ 779,165$ 284,911$ 42,656,012$ 2,966,841$ 196,966,847$ (36,767,305)$ -$ -$ 160,199,542$ (13,823,020)$ 3,640,000$ 150,016,522$ 0.829298551 64 MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Appendix C Printouts from Unmodified Fiscal Model for Expected Industrial Use 1 The spreadsheet is ready to accept unit counts and valuation of project costs. 2 TABS: COMPLETE SHADED AREAS AS INSTRUCTED ON EACH TAB 2a TAB: Property Tax Analysis Enter unit counts in yellow highlighted cells Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Commercial Industrial Office Hotel 2b Input a Constructed Assessed Value 2c 2d TAB: Sales Tax Analysis - Input Square Footage and Rates on Sheet 2e TAB: Expenditure - Police & Fire Input Acres by Land Use In Shaded Areas 2f TAB: Police & Fire Costs - Dev - No input; shows costs and phase in of Fire Station/S 2g TAB: Police & Fire Detal Calcs (call volume by Land Use) 2h TAB: Master Plan Services 2i TAB: Maintenance Service Costs Input Lane Miles and Park Acres 3 TAB: Maintenance Service Costs - PS 3a Input the service count components listed (as applicable) 4 TAB: Analysis - Model FY 4a 4b 4c 5 TAB: Population Factor - Prepopulated TAB: EXH 1 - Revenue Per Capita (Data supporting Fiscal Impact - Locked) TAB: EXH 2 - Expenditures Per Capita (Data supporting Fiscal Impact - Locked) TAB: SUMMARY-EXP (Reconciles Published Budget to Base for Fiscal Model) 6 Print each Tab when done Input on Percentage Complete row for each section - a factor of how much of Instructional Guide This table links to other input tables and calculates the fiscal impact on If the project has a hotel, the room counts per hotel need to be input to Also, an absorption % impact factor needs to be entered on realizing the 66 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Single Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Multi-Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Subtotal (Per Capita)- - - - - - - - - Employment Population 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Totals 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Single Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Multi-Family Residential - - - - - - - - - Totals - - - - - - - - - Hotel 1 - # rooms - - - - - - - - - Hotel 2 - # rooms - - - - - - - - - Totals - - - - - - - - - Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average*154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$ 174.46$ Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned*142.10$ 144.23$ 146.39$ 148.59$ 150.82$ 153.08$ 155.38$ 157.71$ 160.07$ Average Hotel Occupancy*77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy*0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% Absorption Rate 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV 11,277$ 11,503$ 11,733$ 11,967$ 12,207$ 12,451$ 12,700$ 12,954$ 13,213$ Sales and Use Tax Per Capita 1,590 1,536 1,532 1,528 1,523 1,518 1,513 1,509 1,554 Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita 195 188 189 189 190 191 192 193 199 Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific 2,490 2,604 2,721 2,840 2,961 3,084 3,210 3,339 3,470 Franchise Fees Per Capita 548 552 558 563 569 574 579 584 602 Other Taxes Per Capita 505 497 496 495 495 494 494 492 507 Subtotal Tax Revenues 16,606 16,881 17,227 17,583 17,944 18,312 18,688 19,070 19,544 Other Revenues Per Capita 536 558 564 570 576 582 586 591 609 Licenses and Permits Per Capita 72 73 73 73 73 74 74 74 76 Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita 57 57 57 57 58 58 58 58 60 Use of Money & Property Per Capita 137 138 138 139 139 140 140 141 145 Charges for Services No Forecast - - - - - - - - - Intergovernmental Per Capita 98 98 99 99 99 100 100 101 104 Subtotal Other Revenues 900 924 931 938 945 953 959 966 995 Total General Fund Revenues 17,506$ 17,804$ 18,158$ 18,521$ 18,889$ 19,265$ 19,646$ 20,036$ 20,538$ General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita 122$ 124$ 125$ 127$ 129$ 131$ 132$ 134$ 136$ Community Development (20%)Per Capita 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 Public Works/Engineering Per Capita 44 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 48 PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 Building Management System 4.10 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Parks Management System 15.68 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 Open Space Management System 6.72 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Fleet Management System 3.73 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 General Govt Management System 0.65 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 78.28$ 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 Community Services Per Capita 348 352 357 361 366 371 377 382 387 Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific 6,865 7,263 7,568 7,881 8,208 8,545 8,898 9,249 9,480 Fire Services Project Specific 2,378 2,483 2,600 2,672 2,746 2,819 2,895 2,966 3,041 Animal Control Services Per Capita 129 131 133 134 136 138 140 142 144 Total Public Safety 9,372 9,877 10,301 10,688 11,090 11,502 11,932 12,357 12,665 Total General Fund Expenditures 10,279$ 10,791$ 11,223$ 11,617$ 12,026$ 12,446$ 12,884$ 13,317$ 13,634$ Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$7,227 $7,013 $6,936 $6,904 $6,863 $6,819 $6,762 $6,719 $6,905 Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 67 Year Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Subtotal (Per Capita) Employment Population Totals Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Totals Hotel 1 - # rooms Hotel 2 - # rooms Totals Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* Average Hotel Occupancy* Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) Absorption Rate Year General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV Sales and Use Tax Per Capita Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific Franchise Fees Per Capita Other Taxes Per Capita Subtotal Tax Revenues Other Revenues Per Capita Licenses and Permits Per Capita Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita Use of Money & Property Per Capita Charges for Services No Forecast Intergovernmental Per Capita Subtotal Other Revenues Total General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita Community Development (20%)Per Capita Public Works/Engineering Per Capita PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ Building Management System 4.10 Parks Management System 15.68 Open Space Management System 6.72 Fleet Management System 3.73 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 General Govt Management System 0.65 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 78.28$ Community Services Per Capita Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific Fire Services Project Specific Animal Control Services Per Capita Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 177.08$ 179.73$ 182.43$ 185.17$ 187.94$ 190.76$ 193.62$ 196.53$ 199.48$ 162.48$ 164.91$ 167.39$ 169.90$ 172.45$ 175.03$ 177.66$ 180.32$ 183.03$ 77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 13,477$ 13,747$ 14,022$ 14,302$ 14,588$ 14,880$ 15,177$ 15,481$ 15,791$ 1,601 1,649 1,698 1,749 1,801 1,855 1,911 1,968 2,027 204 211 217 223 230 237 244 251 259 3,604 3,740 3,879 4,021 4,166 4,314 4,464 4,618 4,775 620 638 658 677 698 719 740 762 785 522 538 554 570 587 605 623 642 661 20,028 20,522 21,027 21,543 22,071 22,610 23,160 23,723 24,298 627 646 666 686 706 727 749 772 795 79 81 84 86 89 91 94 97 100 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 150 154 159 164 168 174 179 184 190 - - - - - - - - - 107 110 113 117 120 124 127 131 135 1,024 1,055 1,087 1,119 1,153 1,188 1,223 1,260 1,298 21,052$ 21,577$ 22,114$ 22,663$ 23,224$ 23,797$ 24,383$ 24,983$ 25,596$ 138$ 140$ 142$ 145$ 148$ 152$ 156$ 159$ 163$ 33 33 34 34 35 36 37 38 38 49 49 50 51 52 53 55 56 58 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 393 399 405 411 421 432 442 453 465 9,717 9,960 10,209 10,464 10,726 10,994 11,269 11,550 11,839 3,115 3,208 3,305 3,404 3,506 3,611 3,719 3,831 3,946 146 148 151 153 157 161 165 169 173 12,978 13,317 13,664 14,021 14,388 14,766 15,153 15,550 15,958 13,955$ 14,303$ 14,660$ 15,026$ 15,409$ 15,803$ 16,207$ 16,621$ 17,046$ $7,097 $7,274 $7,454 $7,636 $7,814 $7,994 $8,177 $8,362 $8,54968 Year Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Subtotal (Per Capita) Employment Population Totals Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Totals Hotel 1 - # rooms Hotel 2 - # rooms Totals Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* Average Hotel Occupancy* Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) Absorption Rate Year General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV Sales and Use Tax Per Capita Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Project Specific Franchise Fees Per Capita Other Taxes Per Capita Subtotal Tax Revenues Other Revenues Per Capita Licenses and Permits Per Capita Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita Use of Money & Property Per Capita Charges for Services No Forecast Intergovernmental Per Capita Subtotal Other Revenues Total General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita Community Development (20%)Per Capita Public Works/Engineering Per Capita PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ Building Management System 4.10 Parks Management System 15.68 Open Space Management System 6.72 Fleet Management System 3.73 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 General Govt Management System 0.65 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 78.28$ Community Services Per Capita Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific Fire Services Project Specific Animal Control Services Per Capita Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 19 20 - - - - - - 13 13 13 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - 202.47$ 205.50$ 185.77$ 188.56$ 77.1%77.1% 0.0%0.0% 10%10% 0%0% 21 22 16,106$ 16,428$ 2,088 2,151 267 275 4,935 5,098 809 833 681 701 24,886 25,486 819 843 103 106 81 83 195 201 - - 139 143 1,337 1,377 26,222$ 26,863$ 167$ 172$ 39 40 59 60 123 123 19 19 73 73 31 31 17 17 66 66 3 3 31 31 364 364 476 488 12,135 12,439 4,064 4,186 177 182 16,377 16,806 17,483$ 17,932$ $8,739 $8,931 69 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units - - - - - - - - Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 - - - - - - - Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units - - - - - - - - Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 - - - - - - - Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Cumulative Residents - - - - - - - Commercial Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Industrial Employees 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Percentage Complete 100%100%100%100%100%100%100% Constructed Assessed Values 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ Office Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Hotel Employees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ Inflation Factor 2.00%100.00%102.00%104.04%106.12%108.24%110.41%112.62% Total AV - Inflated $7,000,000 $7,140,000 $7,282,800 $7,428,456 $7,577,025 $7,728,566 $7,883,137 Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)$7,000,000 $7,140,000 $7,282,800 $7,428,456 $7,577,025 $7,728,566 $7,883,137 Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00%0.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated $7,000,000 $7,140,000 $7,282,800 $7,428,456 $7,577,025 $7,728,566 $7,883,137 Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem 1.00%70,000$ 71,400$ 72,828$ 74,285$ 75,770$ 77,286$ 78,831$ Total AV Tax Due to City 16.11%$11,277 $11,503 $11,733 $11,967 $12,207 $12,451 $12,700 70 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 114.87%117.17%119.51%121.90%124.34%126.82%129.36%131.95% $8,040,800 $8,201,616 $8,365,648 $8,532,961 $8,703,620 $8,877,693 $9,055,246 $9,236,351 $8,040,800 $8,201,616 $8,365,648 $8,532,961 $8,703,620 $8,877,693 $9,055,246 $9,236,351 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $8,040,800 $8,201,616 $8,365,648 $8,532,961 $8,703,620 $8,877,693 $9,055,246 $9,236,351 80,408$ 82,016$ 83,656$ 85,330$ 87,036$ 88,777$ 90,552$ 92,364$ $12,954 $13,213 $13,477 $13,747 $14,022 $14,302 $14,588 $14,880 71 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Single Family Residential Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Residential Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Employees Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 16 17 18 19 20 - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 38 38 38 38 38 100%100%100%100%100% 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0 0 0 0 0 0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 7,000,000$ 134.59%137.28%140.02%142.82%145.68% $9,421,078 $9,609,500 $9,801,690 $9,997,724 $10,197,678 $9,421,078 $9,609,500 $9,801,690 $9,997,724 $10,197,678 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $9,421,078 $9,609,500 $9,801,690 $9,997,724 $10,197,678 94,211$ 96,095$ 98,017$ 99,977$ 101,977$ $15,177 $15,481 $15,791 $16,106 $16,428 72 FY2019-20 ADOPTED FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST FY2027-28 FORECAST FY2028-29 FORECAST FY2029-30 FORECAST FY2030-31 FORECAST FY2031-32 FORECAST 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 POPULATION 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 352,165 357,226 CHANGE IN POPULATION 25,083 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 5,061 2.8 # of DU 8,958 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 1,808 FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR 1,592 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 7,366 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 1,487 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS)- - - - - - - - - - - - - DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - COMMERCIAL (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.91 INDUSTRIAL (ACRES)6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 - OFFICE (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - HOTEL (ACRES)- - - - - - - - - - - - - EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 882.52$ 975.90$ 1,032.44$ 1,075.85$ 1,120.38$ 1,166.86$ 1,214.71$ 1,264.90$ 1,314.79$ 1,347.66$ 1,381.35$ 1,415.88$ 1,451.28$ 1,487.56$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 952.71$ 1,053.52$ 1,114.56$ 1,161.42$ 1,209.49$ 1,259.67$ 1,311.33$ 1,365.51$ 1,419.36$ 1,454.85$ 1,491.22$ 1,528.50$ 1,566.71$ 1,605.88$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 4,167.10$ 4,608.01$ 4,875.01$ 5,079.96$ 5,290.22$ 5,509.72$ 5,735.66$ 5,972.62$ 6,208.19$ 6,363.40$ 6,522.48$ 6,685.55$ 6,852.68$ 7,024.00$ POLICE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 898.41$ 993.47$ 1,051.04$ 1,095.22$ 1,140.56$ 1,187.88$ 1,236.59$ 1,287.68$ 1,338.47$ 1,371.93$ 1,406.23$ 1,441.38$ 1,477.42$ 1,514.35$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 6,865$ 7,263$ 7,568$ 7,881$ 8,208$ 8,545$ 8,898$ 9,249$ 9,480$ 9,717$ 9,960$ 10,209$ 10,464$ EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 376.83$ 439.73$ 459.17$ 480.87$ 494.21$ 507.72$ 521.36$ 535.28$ 548.44$ 562.35$ 576.04$ 593.32$ 611.12$ 629.45$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 422.97$ 493.58$ 515.40$ 539.76$ 554.73$ 569.90$ 585.20$ 600.82$ 615.60$ 631.21$ 646.58$ 665.97$ 685.95$ 706.53$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,479.61$ 1,726.59$ 1,802.93$ 1,888.14$ 1,940.50$ 1,993.58$ 2,047.11$ 2,101.76$ 2,153.47$ 2,208.06$ 2,261.81$ 2,329.67$ 2,399.56$ 2,471.54$ FIRE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 294.89$ 344.12$ 359.33$ 376.32$ 386.75$ 397.33$ 408.00$ 418.89$ 429.20$ 440.08$ 450.79$ 464.32$ 478.24$ 492.59$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 2,378$ 2,483$ 2,600$ 2,672$ 2,746$ 2,819$ 2,895$ 2,966$ 3,041$ 3,115$ 3,208$ 3,305$ 3,404$ POPULATION PER DU FACTOR 73 POPULATION CHANGE IN POPULATION 2.8 # of DU FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS) DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS) - COMMERCIAL (ACRES) 6.91 INDUSTRIAL (ACRES) - OFFICE (ACRES) - HOTEL (ACRES) EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 882.52$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 952.71$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 4,167.10$ POLICE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 898.41$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 376.83$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 422.97$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,479.61$ FIRE Industrial/Office Acres 834 PER ACRE 294.89$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC POPULATION PER DU FACTOR FY2032-33 FORECAST FY2033-34 FORECAST FY2034-35 FORECAST FY2035-36 FORECAST FY2037-38 FORECAST FY2038-39 FORECAST FY2039-40 FORECAST 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 1,943 1,867 1,898 1,878 1,833 1,794 1,750 694 667 678 671 655 641 625 123 119 120 119 116 114 111 571 548 558 552 539 527 514 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,524.75$ 1,562.87$ 1,601.94$ 1,641.99$ 1,683.04$ 1,725.12$ 1,768.25$ 1,646.03$ 1,687.18$ 1,729.36$ 1,772.59$ 1,816.91$ 1,862.33$ 1,908.89$ 7,199.60$ 7,379.59$ 7,564.08$ 7,753.18$ 7,947.01$ 8,145.69$ 8,349.33$ 1,552.21$ 1,591.02$ 1,630.79$ 1,671.56$ 1,713.35$ 1,756.18$ 1,800.09$ 10,726$ 10,994$ 11,269$ 11,550$ 11,839$ 12,135$ 12,439$ 648.34$ 667.79$ 687.82$ 708.45$ 729.71$ 751.60$ 774.15$ 727.73$ 749.56$ 772.05$ 795.21$ 819.07$ 843.64$ 868.95$ 2,545.69$ 2,622.06$ 2,700.72$ 2,781.74$ 2,865.20$ 2,951.15$ 3,039.69$ 507.37$ 522.59$ 538.27$ 554.42$ 571.05$ 588.18$ 605.83$ 3,506$ 3,611$ 3,719$ 3,831$ 3,946$ 4,064$ 4,186$ 74 Table - Public Safety Costs by Land Use Dwelling Type Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CV / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU 62,993,374$ Single Family Units 123,906,773 36,084 3,434 4,854 16,667,871 14.957%50.55%31,844,897$ 883$ Multi-Family Units 103,105,371 27,814 3,707 22,467 83,283,023 74.735%42.07%26,498,793$ 953$ Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 15,176,274 936 16,214 518 8,405,596 7.543%6.19%3,900,407$ 4,167$ Industrial/Office Acres 2,915,398 834 3,496 882 3,081,488 2.765%1.19%749,277$ 898$ Citywide Total 245,103,815 Dwelling Type Calls for Service (CFS) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CFS / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CFS Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU $ 33,055,258 Single Family Units 3,893 53629 0.0725947 4854 352.3746952 14.800%61.137%20,208,875$ 376.83$ Multi-Family Units 2,161 26516 0.08148433 22466.6667 1830.681368 76.890%33.930%11,215,526$ 422.97$ 6,054 Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 267 936 0.28504274 518.417 147.7709996 6.207%4.190%1,384,916$ 1,479.61$ Industrial/Office Acres 47 834 0.05681055 881.513 50.07923974 2.103%0.744%245,942$ 294.89$ 314 6,368 (1)Calls for Service include all calls for service responded to by the Fire Department during a one-year period. (2) Existing development data is per General Plan Update Fiscal Model. (3) Future development data is per March 2006 PFDIF Update - Development Forecast. (4) SDF - Service Demand Factor Police Calls for Service by Land Use Fire Calls for Service by Land Use 75 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE HOUSEHOLD POPULATION EMPLOYEES EMPLOYMENT RESIDENT EQUIVALENT (.05) 2012 244,408 37,218 12,220 2013 249,110 37,934 12,456 2014 253,812 38,650 12,691 2015 258,514 39,366 12,926 2016 263,216 40,082 13,161 2017 267,917 40,798 13,396 2018 268,060 40,820 13,403 2019*271,411 41,330 13,571 2020 282,375 43,000 14,119 2021 287,195 43,734 14,360 2022 292,015 44,468 14,601 2023 296,835 45,201 14,842 2024 301,655 45,935 15,083 2025 306,475 46,669 15,324 2026 311,295 47,403 15,565 2027 316,115 48,137 15,806 2028 320,935 48,871 16,047 2029 325,755 49,605 16,288 2030 330,575 50,339 16,529 2031 335,395 51,073 16,770 2032 340,215 51,807 17,011 2033 342,066 52,089 17,103 2034 343,844 52,360 17,192 2035 345,651 52,635 17,283 2036 347,440 52,907 17,372 2037 349,185 53,173 17,459 2038 350,894 53,433 17,545 2039 352,560 53,687 17,628 2040 354,241 53,943 17,712 2041 355,895 54,195 17,795 2042 357,524 54,443 17,876 2043 359,126 54,687 17,956 2044 360,683 54,924 18,034 2045 362,220 55,158 18,111 2046 363,786 55,397 18,189 2047 365,344 55,634 18,267 * As of 01/01/2019 Per State of California Department of Finance, Chula Vista Population is 271,411. 76 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT Per Capita Weighted Average FY2019-20 FORECAST FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax 160.05$ 37,371,038 38,860,000 40,330,000 41,820,000 43,370,000 44,920,000 46,580,000 48,060,000 TOTAL 37,371,038 38,860,000 40,330,000 41,820,000 43,370,000 44,920,000 46,580,000 48,060,000 Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 128.95$ 35,447,600 34,830,000 35,310,000 35,810,000 36,270,000 36,730,000 37,190,000 37,650,000 3020 Franchise Fees 49.12$ 12,205,678 12,520,000 12,860,000 13,200,000 13,540,000 13,890,000 14,230,000 14,580,000 3030 Utility Taxes 21.05$ 5,733,423 5,800,000 5,860,000 5,920,000 5,980,000 6,040,000 6,100,000 6,120,000 3040 Business License Tax 6.60$ 1,614,643 1,874,650 1,874,650 1,894,650 1,924,650 1,944,650 1,964,650 1,914,650 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 16.33$ 4,357,922 4,270,000 4,350,000 4,440,000 4,530,000 4,620,000 4,710,000 4,810,000 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax 4.57$ 1,173,550 1,197,021 1,220,961 1,245,381 1,270,288 1,295,694 1,321,608 1,348,040 TOTAL 60,532,816 60,491,671 61,475,611 62,510,031 63,514,938 64,520,344 65,516,258 66,422,690 Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 0.68$ 175,300 178,806 182,382 186,030 189,750 193,545 197,416 201,365 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 2.40$ 616,455 628,784 641,360 654,187 667,271 680,616 694,228 708,113 3140 Regulatory Permits 3.14$ 806,170 822,293 838,739 855,514 872,624 890,077 907,878 926,036 3160 Other Permits 0.05$ 14,000 14,280 14,566 14,857 15,154 15,457 15,766 16,082 TOTAL 1,611,925 1,644,164 1,677,047 1,710,588 1,744,799 1,779,695 1,815,289 1,851,595 Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 2.36$ 605,439 617,548 629,899 642,497 655,347 668,454 681,823 695,459 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 1.15$ 294,000 299,880 305,878 311,995 318,235 324,600 331,092 337,714 3240 Parking Penalties 0.97$ 250,000 255,000 260,100 265,302 270,608 276,020 281,541 287,171 3250 Other Penalties 0.46$ 118,000 120,360 122,767 125,223 127,727 130,282 132,887 135,545 TOTAL 1,267,439 1,292,788 1,318,644 1,345,016 1,371,917 1,399,355 1,427,342 1,455,889 Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3.12$ 802,000 818,040 834,401 851,089 868,111 885,473 903,182 921,246 3310 Sale of Real Property -$ - - - - - - - - 3320 Sale of Personal Property 0.01$ 3,000 3,060 3,121 3,184 3,247 3,312 3,378 3,446 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 1.07$ 274,847 280,344 285,951 291,670 297,503 303,453 309,522 315,713 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3.98$ 1,022,250 1,042,695 1,063,549 1,084,820 1,106,516 1,128,647 1,151,220 1,174,244 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings 3.75$ 963,130 982,393 1,002,040 1,022,081 1,042,523 1,063,373 1,084,641 1,106,334 TOTAL 3,065,227 3,126,532 3,189,062 3,252,843 3,317,900 3,384,258 3,451,943 3,520,982 Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 2.89$ 742,346 757,193 772,337 787,784 803,539 819,610 836,002 852,722 3440 State Tax Sharing 0.89$ 228,246 232,811 237,467 242,216 247,061 252,002 257,042 262,183 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License F 99.97$ 23,130,251 24,190,000 25,130,000 26,080,000 27,060,000 28,050,000 29,120,000 30,050,000 3480 State Reimbursements 0.52$ 133,799 136,475 139,204 141,989 144,828 147,725 150,679 153,693 3500 Federal Grants 1.79$ 460,440 469,649 479,042 488,623 498,395 508,363 518,530 528,901 3580 Federal Reimbursements 0.03$ 7,233 7,378 7,525 7,676 7,829 7,986 8,146 8,308 3600 Other Agency Grants 0.01$ 2,000 2,040 2,081 2,122 2,165 2,208 2,252 2,297 3690 Other Agency Revenue 2.38$ 610,000 622,200 634,644 647,337 660,284 673,489 686,959 700,698 TOTAL 25,314,315 26,417,745 27,402,300 28,397,746 29,424,101 30,461,383 31,579,611 32,558,803 Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 5.15$ 1,321,991 1,348,431 1,375,399 1,402,907 1,430,966 1,459,585 1,488,777 1,518,552 3720 Document Fees 2.60$ 668,824 682,200 695,844 709,761 723,957 738,436 753,204 768,269 3730 Plan Checking Fees 0.10$ 25,000 25,500 26,010 26,530 27,061 27,602 28,154 28,717 3740 Inspection Fees 1.60$ 412,000 420,240 428,645 437,218 445,962 454,881 463,979 473,258 3750 Filing Fees 0.16$ 41,000 41,820 42,656 43,510 44,380 45,267 46,173 47,096 3770 Other Dev Fees 0.03$ 6,600 6,732 6,867 7,004 7,144 7,287 7,433 7,581 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 1.06$ 273,200 278,664 284,237 289,922 295,720 301,635 307,668 313,821 3830 Services to the Port District 4.19$ 1,075,678 1,097,192 1,119,135 1,141,518 1,164,348 1,187,635 1,211,388 1,235,616 3900 Recreation Program Fees 5.71$ 1,464,886 1,494,184 1,524,067 1,554,549 1,585,640 1,617,353 1,649,700 1,682,694 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 11.36$ 2,915,823 2,974,139 3,033,622 3,094,295 3,156,181 3,219,304 3,283,690 3,349,364 4300 Fees for Other Services 0.18$ 46,000 46,920 47,858 48,816 49,792 50,788 51,803 52,840 TOTAL 8,251,002 8,416,022 8,584,342 8,756,029 8,931,150 9,109,773 9,291,968 9,477,808 Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 0.44$ 113,975 116,255 118,580 120,951 123,370 125,838 128,354 130,921 4420 Transit Reimbursements 0.27$ 70,000 71,400 72,828 74,285 75,770 77,286 78,831 80,408 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 0.01$ 1,800 1,836 1,873 1,910 1,948 1,987 2,027 2,068 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 7.31$ 1,876,001 1,913,521 1,951,791 1,990,827 2,030,644 2,071,257 2,112,682 2,154,935 4450 CIP Reimbursements 20.80$ 5,341,549 5,448,380 5,557,348 5,668,495 5,781,864 5,897,502 6,015,452 6,135,761 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 0.23$ 60,100 61,302 62,528 63,779 65,054 66,355 67,682 69,036 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 11.60$ 2,979,570 3,039,161 3,099,945 3,161,944 3,225,182 3,289,686 3,355,480 3,422,589 4600 Assessments 0.61$ 157,780 160,936 164,154 167,437 170,786 174,202 177,686 181,240 4700 Collection Charges 2.44$ 626,270 638,795 651,571 664,603 677,895 691,453 705,282 719,387 4800 Sale of Goods 0.01$ 2,650 2,703 2,757 2,812 2,868 2,926 2,984 3,044 4900 Other Revenue 5.92$ 713,065 1,200,000 1,320,000 1,440,000 1,560,000 1,680,000 1,760,000 1,860,000 TOTAL 11,942,760 12,654,289 13,003,375 13,357,042 13,715,383 14,078,491 14,406,460 14,759,390 TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 600.11$ 149,356,522 152,903,210 156,980,381 161,149,296 165,390,189 169,653,300 174,068,873 178,107,157 77 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax TOTAL Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 3020 Franchise Fees 3030 Utility Taxes 3040 Business License Tax 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax TOTAL Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 3140 Regulatory Permits 3160 Other Permits TOTAL Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 3240 Parking Penalties 3250 Other Penalties TOTAL Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3310 Sale of Real Property 3320 Sale of Personal Property 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings TOTAL Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 3440 State Tax Sharing 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License 3480 State Reimbursements 3500 Federal Grants 3580 Federal Reimbursements 3600 Other Agency Grants 3690 Other Agency Revenue TOTAL Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 3720 Document Fees 3730 Plan Checking Fees 3740 Inspection Fees 3750 Filing Fees 3770 Other Dev Fees 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 3830 Services to the Port District 3900 Recreation Program Fees 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 4300 Fees for Other Services TOTAL Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 4420 Transit Reimbursements 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 4450 CIP Reimbursements 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 4600 Assessments 4700 Collection Charges 4800 Sale of Goods 4900 Other Revenue TOTAL TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 352,165 FY2019-20 FORECAST FY2020-21 FORECAST FY2021-22 FORECAST FY2022-23 FORECAST FY2023-24 FORECAST FY2024-25 FORECAST FY2025-26 FORECAST FY2026-27 FORECAST FY2027-28 FORECAST (3%) FY2028-29 FORECAST (3%) FY2029-30 FORECAST (3%) FY2030-31 FORECAST (3%) 126.04$ 128.87$ 131.53$ 134.18$ 136.93$ 139.59$ 142.51$ 144.79$ 149.14$ 153.61$ 158.22$ 162.97$ 119.56$ 115.50$ 115.16$ 114.89$ 114.51$ 114.14$ 113.78$ 113.43$ 116.83$ 120.34$ 123.95$ 127.67$ 41.17$ 41.52$ 41.94$ 42.35$ 42.75$ 43.16$ 43.54$ 43.93$ 45.24$ 46.60$ 48.00$ 49.44$ 19.34$ 19.23$ 19.11$ 18.99$ 18.88$ 18.77$ 18.66$ 18.44$ 18.99$ 19.56$ 20.15$ 20.75$ 5.45$ 6.22$ 6.11$ 6.08$ 6.08$ 6.04$ 6.01$ 5.77$ 5.94$ 6.12$ 6.30$ 6.49$ 14.70$ 14.16$ 14.19$ 14.25$ 14.30$ 14.36$ 14.41$ 14.49$ 14.93$ 15.37$ 15.84$ 16.31$ 3.96$ 3.97$ 3.98$ 4.00$ 4.01$ 4.03$ 4.04$ 4.06$ 4.18$ 4.31$ 4.44$ 4.57$ 0.59$ 0.59$ 0.59$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.60$ 0.61$ 0.62$ 0.64$ 0.66$ 0.68$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.11$ 2.12$ 2.12$ 2.13$ 2.20$ 2.26$ 2.33$ 2.40$ 2.72$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.74$ 2.76$ 2.77$ 2.78$ 2.79$ 2.87$ 2.96$ 3.05$ 3.14$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 0.05$ 2.04$ 2.05$ 2.05$ 2.06$ 2.07$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.16$ 2.22$ 2.29$ 2.36$ 0.99$ 0.99$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.01$ 1.01$ 1.02$ 1.05$ 1.08$ 1.11$ 1.15$ 0.84$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.85$ 0.86$ 0.86$ 0.87$ 0.89$ 0.92$ 0.95$ 0.97$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.40$ 0.41$ 0.41$ 0.42$ 0.43$ 0.45$ 0.46$ 2.70$ 2.71$ 2.72$ 2.73$ 2.74$ 2.75$ 2.76$ 2.78$ 2.86$ 2.94$ 3.03$ 3.12$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.95$ 0.95$ 0.98$ 1.01$ 1.04$ 1.07$ 3.45$ 3.46$ 3.47$ 3.48$ 3.49$ 3.51$ 3.52$ 3.54$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 3.87$ 3.98$ 3.25$ 3.26$ 3.27$ 3.28$ 3.29$ 3.30$ 3.32$ 3.33$ 3.43$ 3.54$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 2.50$ 2.51$ 2.52$ 2.53$ 2.54$ 2.55$ 2.56$ 2.57$ 2.65$ 2.73$ 2.81$ 2.89$ 0.77$ 0.77$ 0.77$ 0.78$ 0.78$ 0.78$ 0.79$ 0.79$ 0.81$ 0.84$ 0.86$ 0.89$ 78.01$ 80.22$ 81.96$ 83.68$ 85.43$ 87.17$ 89.09$ 90.53$ 93.25$ 96.05$ 98.93$ 101.90$ 0.45$ 0.45$ 0.45$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.46$ 0.48$ 0.49$ 0.51$ 0.52$ 1.55$ 1.56$ 1.56$ 1.57$ 1.57$ 1.58$ 1.59$ 1.59$ 1.64$ 1.69$ 1.74$ 1.79$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.06$ 2.06$ 2.07$ 2.08$ 2.08$ 2.09$ 2.10$ 2.11$ 2.17$ 2.24$ 2.31$ 2.38$ 4.46$ 4.47$ 4.49$ 4.50$ 4.52$ 4.54$ 4.55$ 4.58$ 4.71$ 4.85$ 5.00$ 5.15$ 2.26$ 2.26$ 2.27$ 2.28$ 2.29$ 2.29$ 2.30$ 2.31$ 2.38$ 2.46$ 2.53$ 2.61$ 0.08$ 0.08$ 0.08$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.09$ 0.10$ 1.39$ 1.39$ 1.40$ 1.40$ 1.41$ 1.41$ 1.42$ 1.43$ 1.47$ 1.51$ 1.56$ 1.60$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.14$ 0.15$ 0.15$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.02$ 0.03$ 0.92$ 0.92$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.93$ 0.94$ 0.94$ 0.95$ 0.97$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 3.63$ 3.64$ 3.65$ 3.66$ 3.68$ 3.69$ 3.71$ 3.72$ 3.83$ 3.95$ 4.07$ 4.19$ 4.94$ 4.95$ 4.97$ 4.99$ 5.01$ 5.03$ 5.05$ 5.07$ 5.22$ 5.38$ 5.54$ 5.71$ 9.83$ 9.86$ 9.89$ 9.93$ 9.96$ 10.00$ 10.05$ 10.09$ 10.39$ 10.71$ 11.03$ 11.36$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.16$ 0.17$ 0.17$ 0.18$ 0.38$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.39$ 0.41$ 0.42$ 0.43$ 0.44$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.24$ 0.25$ 0.26$ 0.26$ 0.27$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 6.33$ 6.35$ 6.37$ 6.39$ 6.41$ 6.44$ 6.46$ 6.49$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.09$ 7.31$ 18.02$ 18.07$ 18.12$ 18.19$ 18.25$ 18.33$ 18.40$ 18.49$ 19.04$ 19.61$ 20.20$ 20.81$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.22$ 0.23$ 0.23$ 10.05$ 10.08$ 10.11$ 10.14$ 10.18$ 10.22$ 10.27$ 10.31$ 10.62$ 10.94$ 11.27$ 11.61$ 0.53$ 0.53$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.55$ 0.56$ 0.58$ 0.60$ 0.61$ 2.11$ 2.12$ 2.13$ 2.13$ 2.14$ 2.15$ 2.16$ 2.17$ 2.23$ 2.30$ 2.37$ 2.44$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.40$ 3.98$ 4.31$ 4.62$ 4.93$ 5.22$ 5.38$ 5.60$ 5.77$ 5.95$ 6.12$ 6.31$ 503.74$ 507.05$ 511.98$ 517.04$ 522.17$ 527.20$ 532.55$ 536.60$ 552.69$ 569.27$ 586.35$ 603.94$ 78 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE FUND/ACCOUNT 100 GENERAL FUND Property Taxes 3000 Property Tax TOTAL Other Local Taxes 3010 Sales Tax 3020 Franchise Fees 3030 Utility Taxes 3040 Business License Tax 3050 Transient Occupancy Tax 3070 Real Property Transfer Tax TOTAL Licenses and Permits 3100 Licenses 3120 Dev / Improvement Permits 3140 Regulatory Permits 3160 Other Permits TOTAL Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 3200 Community Appearance Penalties 3210 Law Enforcement Penalties 3240 Parking Penalties 3250 Other Penalties TOTAL Use of Money & Property 3300 Investment Earnings 3310 Sale of Real Property 3320 Sale of Personal Property 3330 Rental/Lease of Equipment 3350 Rental/Lease of Land and Space 3370 Rental/Lease of Buildings TOTAL Revenue from Other Agencies 3400 State Grants 3440 State Tax Sharing 3460 PTILVLF-Former Motor Vehicle License 3480 State Reimbursements 3500 Federal Grants 3580 Federal Reimbursements 3600 Other Agency Grants 3690 Other Agency Revenue TOTAL Charges for Services 3700 Zoning Fees 3720 Document Fees 3730 Plan Checking Fees 3740 Inspection Fees 3750 Filing Fees 3770 Other Dev Fees 3800 Animal Shelter Contracts 3830 Services to the Port District 3900 Recreation Program Fees 4200 Staff Services Reimbursements 4300 Fees for Other Services TOTAL Other Revenue 4410 DIF Reimbursements 4420 Transit Reimbursements 4430 Redev Agency Reimbursements 4440 Open Space/Assess Dist Reimb 4450 CIP Reimbursements 4460 CDBG/Home Reimbursements 4480 Other City Funds Reimbursement 4600 Assessments 4700 Collection Charges 4800 Sale of Goods 4900 Other Revenue TOTAL TOTAL - 100 GENERAL FUND 357,226 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 FY2031-32 FORECAST (3%) FY2032-33 FORECAST (3%) FY2033-34 FORECAST (3%) FY2034-35 FORECAST (3%) FY2035-36 FORECAST (3%) FY2037-38 FORECAST (3%) FY2038-39 FORECAST (3%) FY2039-40 FORECAST (3%) 167.86$ 172.89$ 178.08$ 183.42$ 188.92$ 194.59$ 200.43$ 206.44$ 131.50$ 135.44$ 139.51$ 143.69$ 148.00$ 152.44$ 157.01$ 161.73$ 50.92$ 52.45$ 54.02$ 55.64$ 57.31$ 59.03$ 60.80$ 62.63$ 21.37$ 22.02$ 22.68$ 23.36$ 24.06$ 24.78$ 25.52$ 26.29$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.09$ 7.31$ 7.53$ 7.75$ 7.98$ 8.22$ 16.80$ 17.30$ 17.82$ 18.36$ 18.91$ 19.48$ 20.06$ 20.66$ 4.71$ 4.85$ 4.99$ 5.14$ 5.30$ 5.46$ 5.62$ 5.79$ 0.70$ 0.72$ 0.75$ 0.77$ 0.79$ 0.82$ 0.84$ 0.86$ 2.47$ 2.55$ 2.62$ 2.70$ 2.78$ 2.87$ 2.95$ 3.04$ 3.23$ 3.33$ 3.43$ 3.53$ 3.64$ 3.75$ 3.86$ 3.98$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.06$ 0.07$ 0.07$ 0.07$ 2.43$ 2.50$ 2.58$ 2.65$ 2.73$ 2.82$ 2.90$ 2.99$ 1.18$ 1.21$ 1.25$ 1.29$ 1.33$ 1.37$ 1.41$ 1.45$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 1.10$ 1.13$ 1.16$ 1.20$ 1.23$ 0.47$ 0.49$ 0.50$ 0.52$ 0.53$ 0.55$ 0.57$ 0.58$ 3.22$ 3.31$ 3.41$ 3.52$ 3.62$ 3.73$ 3.84$ 3.96$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 1.10$ 1.14$ 1.17$ 1.20$ 1.24$ 1.28$ 1.32$ 1.36$ 4.10$ 4.22$ 4.35$ 4.48$ 4.62$ 4.75$ 4.90$ 5.04$ 3.86$ 3.98$ 4.10$ 4.22$ 4.35$ 4.48$ 4.61$ 4.75$ 2.98$ 3.07$ 3.16$ 3.25$ 3.35$ 3.45$ 3.56$ 3.66$ 0.92$ 0.94$ 0.97$ 1.00$ 1.03$ 1.06$ 1.09$ 1.13$ 104.95$ 108.10$ 111.34$ 114.69$ 118.13$ 121.67$ 125.32$ 129.08$ 0.54$ 0.55$ 0.57$ 0.59$ 0.60$ 0.62$ 0.64$ 0.66$ 1.85$ 1.90$ 1.96$ 2.02$ 2.08$ 2.14$ 2.21$ 2.27$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.04$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 2.45$ 2.52$ 2.60$ 2.67$ 2.75$ 2.84$ 2.92$ 3.01$ 5.30$ 5.46$ 5.63$ 5.80$ 5.97$ 6.15$ 6.33$ 6.52$ 2.68$ 2.76$ 2.85$ 2.93$ 3.02$ 3.11$ 3.20$ 3.30$ 0.10$ 0.10$ 0.11$ 0.11$ 0.11$ 0.12$ 0.12$ 0.12$ 1.65$ 1.70$ 1.75$ 1.81$ 1.86$ 1.92$ 1.97$ 2.03$ 0.16$ 0.17$ 0.17$ 0.18$ 0.19$ 0.19$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 0.03$ 1.10$ 1.13$ 1.16$ 1.20$ 1.23$ 1.27$ 1.31$ 1.35$ 4.32$ 4.45$ 4.58$ 4.72$ 4.86$ 5.00$ 5.15$ 5.31$ 5.88$ 6.05$ 6.23$ 6.42$ 6.61$ 6.81$ 7.02$ 7.23$ 11.70$ 12.05$ 12.41$ 12.78$ 13.17$ 13.56$ 13.97$ 14.39$ 0.18$ 0.19$ 0.20$ 0.20$ 0.21$ 0.21$ 0.22$ 0.23$ 0.46$ 0.47$ 0.49$ 0.50$ 0.51$ 0.53$ 0.55$ 0.56$ 0.28$ 0.29$ 0.30$ 0.31$ 0.32$ 0.33$ 0.34$ 0.35$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 7.53$ 7.75$ 7.98$ 8.22$ 8.47$ 8.73$ 8.99$ 9.26$ 21.43$ 22.07$ 22.73$ 23.42$ 24.12$ 24.84$ 25.59$ 26.36$ 0.24$ 0.25$ 0.26$ 0.26$ 0.27$ 0.28$ 0.29$ 0.30$ 11.95$ 12.31$ 12.68$ 13.06$ 13.45$ 13.86$ 14.27$ 14.70$ 0.63$ 0.65$ 0.67$ 0.69$ 0.71$ 0.73$ 0.76$ 0.78$ 2.51$ 2.59$ 2.67$ 2.75$ 2.83$ 2.91$ 3.00$ 3.09$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 0.01$ 6.50$ 6.69$ 6.89$ 7.10$ 7.31$ 7.53$ 7.76$ 7.99$ 622.06$ 640.72$ 659.94$ 679.74$ 700.14$ 721.14$ 742.77$ 765.06$ 79 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE Weighted Average FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 Household Population 282,375 287,195 292,015 296,835 301,655 306,475 311,295 316,115 320,935 325,755 330,575 Employment Population (Per Capita Equiv) 14,119 14,360 14,601 14,842 15,083 15,324 15,565 15,806 16,047 16,288 16,529 Total Population 296,494 301,555 306,616 311,677 316,738 321,799 326,860 331,921 336,982 342,043 347,104 Per Capita by Category: General Government 71.25$ 61.25$ 62.03$ 62.84$ 63.67$ 64.53$ 65.42$ 66.34$ 67.29$ 68.27$ 69.28$ 70.31$ Community Development 12.59 10.82 10.96 11.10 11.25 11.40 11.56 11.72 11.89 12.06 12.24 12.42 Public Works/Engineering 55.62 47.95 48.90 49.49 50.09 50.67 51.29 51.94 52.56 53.24 53.90 54.71 Community Services 60.81 52.27 52.94 53.63 54.34 55.07 55.83 56.62 57.43 58.26 59.12 60.01 Public Safety: Police Services 270.13 212.46 221.00 226.49 232.03 237.80 243.66 249.80 255.69 261.81 267.92 271.93 Fire Services 130.97 111.49 114.46 117.89 119.20 120.50 121.79 123.10 124.21 125.45 126.60 128.49 Animal Control Services 11.31 9.72 9.85 9.97 10.11 10.24 10.39 10.53 10.68 10.84 11.00 11.16 Total Public Safety 412.41 333.67 345.31 354.36 361.34 368.54 375.83 383.43 390.58 398.09 405.51 411.59 Total General Fund Expenditures 612.68$ 505.97$ 520.14$ 531.41$ 540.68$ 550.22$ 559.94$ 570.05$ 579.75$ 589.92$ 600.05$ 609.04$ Per Capita by Department: City Council 2.56 2.20$ 2.23$ 2.26$ 2.29$ 2.32$ 2.35$ 2.38$ 2.42$ 2.45$ 2.49$ 2.52$ Boards & Commissions 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 City Clerk 4.09 3.52 3.56 3.61 3.65 3.70 3.76 3.81 3.86 3.92 3.98 4.04 City Attorney 12.86 11.05 11.20 11.34 11.49 11.65 11.81 11.97 12.15 12.32 12.50 12.69 Administration 8.46 7.27 7.36 7.46 7.56 7.66 7.76 7.87 7.99 8.10 8.22 8.34 Info Tech Services 15.23 13.09 13.26 13.43 13.61 13.79 13.98 14.18 14.38 14.59 14.80 15.03 Human Resources 12.11 10.41 10.54 10.68 10.82 10.97 11.12 11.28 11.44 11.60 11.78 11.95 Finance 15.90 13.67 13.84 14.02 14.21 14.40 14.60 14.81 15.02 15.24 15.46 15.69 Non-Departmental - - - - - - - - - - - - Animal Care Facility 11.31 9.72 9.85 9.97 10.11 10.24 10.39 10.53 10.68 10.84 11.00 11.16 Economic Development 8.65 7.44 7.53 7.63 7.73 7.84 7.94 8.06 8.17 8.29 8.41 8.54 Planning & Building 3.93 3.38 3.43 3.47 3.52 3.56 3.61 3.66 3.72 3.77 3.83 3.88 Engineering/CIP Projects 36.60 31.47 31.87 32.28 32.71 33.15 33.61 34.08 34.57 35.07 35.59 36.12 Police 270.13 212.46 221.00 226.49 232.03 237.80 243.66 249.80 255.69 261.81 267.92 271.93 Fire 130.97 111.49 114.46 117.89 119.20 120.50 121.79 123.10 124.21 125.45 126.60 128.49 Public Works 19.01 16.49 17.04 17.21 17.38 17.52 17.68 17.86 18.00 18.16 18.31 18.58 Recreation 44.35 38.12 38.61 39.11 39.63 40.17 40.72 41.29 41.88 42.49 43.12 43.77 Library 16.46 14.15 14.33 14.52 14.71 14.91 15.11 15.33 15.54 15.77 16.00 16.24 General Fund Totals 612.68$ 505.97$ 520.14$ 531.41$ 540.68$ 550.22$ 559.94$ 570.05$ 579.75$ 589.92$ 600.05$ 609.04$ 80 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE Weighted Average FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FULL FISCAL IMPACT - FORECAST FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 General Government 18,160,487 18,705,302 19,266,461 19,844,455 20,439,789 21,052,982 21,684,572 22,335,109 23,005,162 23,695,317 24,406,177 Community Development 3,208,062 3,304,304 3,403,433 3,505,536 3,610,702 3,719,023 3,830,594 3,945,512 4,063,877 4,185,794 4,311,367 Public Works/Engineering 14,217,621 14,747,185 15,175,755 15,611,689 16,049,950 16,505,765 16,976,996 17,446,944 17,939,238 18,435,310 18,988,369 Community Services 15,498,905 15,963,872 16,442,789 16,936,072 17,444,154 17,967,479 18,506,503 19,061,699 19,633,550 20,222,556 20,829,233 Public Safety: Police Services 62,993,374 66,643,363 69,445,105 72,319,470 75,320,061 78,408,743 81,648,090 84,868,480 88,225,442 91,639,078 94,388,250 Fire Services 33,055,258 34,516,650 36,148,007 37,150,475 38,166,592 39,191,500 40,237,679 41,227,647 42,272,838 43,301,909 44,600,967 Animal Control Services 2,882,814 2,969,298 3,058,377 3,150,129 3,244,633 3,341,972 3,442,231 3,545,498 3,651,863 3,761,418 3,874,261 Total Public Safety 98,931,446 104,129,311 108,651,490 112,620,074 116,731,286 120,942,215 125,328,000 129,641,625 134,150,143 138,702,406 142,863,478 Total General Fund Expenditures 150,016,522 156,849,974 162,939,928 168,517,826 174,275,881 180,187,464 186,326,665 192,430,888 198,791,969 205,241,382 211,398,623 DEPARTMENT NAME CITY COUNCIL 3.59%651,797 671,350 691,491 712,236 733,603 755,611 778,279 801,628 825,676 850,447 875,960 BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS 0.07%12,074 12,436 12,809 13,193 13,589 13,997 14,417 14,849 15,295 15,754 16,226 CITY CLERK 5.25%1,042,495 1,073,770 1,105,983 1,139,163 1,173,338 1,208,538 1,244,794 1,282,138 1,320,602 1,360,220 1,401,027 CITY ATTORNEY 16.61%3,277,722 3,376,054 3,477,336 3,581,656 3,689,105 3,799,779 3,913,772 4,031,185 4,152,121 4,276,684 4,404,985 ADMINISTRATION 11.41%2,155,103 2,219,756 2,286,349 2,354,939 2,425,588 2,498,355 2,573,306 2,650,505 2,730,020 2,811,921 2,896,278 INFO TECH SRVCS 21.07%3,881,057 3,997,488 4,117,413 4,240,936 4,368,164 4,499,208 4,634,185 4,773,210 4,916,407 5,063,899 5,215,816 HUMAN RESOURCES 15.47%3,086,826 3,179,431 3,274,813 3,373,058 3,474,250 3,578,477 3,685,831 3,796,406 3,910,299 4,027,607 4,148,436 FINANCE 21.14%4,053,414 4,175,016 4,300,266 4,429,274 4,562,153 4,699,017 4,839,988 4,985,187 5,134,743 5,288,785 5,447,449 NON-DEPARTMENTAL 0.00%- - - - - - - - - - - ANIMAL CARE FACILITY 2,882,814 2,969,298 3,058,377 3,150,129 3,244,633 3,341,972 3,442,231 3,545,498 3,651,863 3,761,418 3,874,261 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 68.74%2,205,269 2,271,428 2,339,570 2,409,757 2,482,050 2,556,512 2,633,207 2,712,203 2,793,569 2,877,376 2,963,698 PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICE 31.26%1,002,793 1,032,877 1,063,863 1,095,779 1,128,652 1,162,512 1,197,387 1,233,309 1,270,308 1,308,417 1,347,670 ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS 65.62%9,329,383 9,609,265 9,897,543 10,194,469 10,500,303 10,815,312 11,139,772 11,473,965 11,818,184 12,172,729 12,537,911 POLICE 62,993,374 66,643,363 69,445,105 72,319,470 75,320,061 78,408,743 81,648,090 84,868,480 88,225,442 91,639,078 94,388,250 FIRE 33,055,258 34,516,650 36,148,007 37,150,475 38,166,592 39,191,500 40,237,679 41,227,647 42,272,838 43,301,909 44,600,967 PUBLIC WORKS 54.48%4,888,237 5,137,920 5,278,213 5,417,220 5,549,646 5,690,452 5,837,224 5,972,980 6,121,054 6,262,580 6,450,458 RECREATION 53.71%11,303,651 11,642,760 11,992,043 12,351,804 12,722,358 13,104,029 13,497,150 13,902,065 14,319,126 14,748,700 15,191,161 LIBRARY 46.29%4,195,255 4,321,112 4,450,746 4,584,268 4,721,796 4,863,450 5,009,353 5,159,634 5,314,423 5,473,856 5,638,071 GENERAL FUND TOTALS 150,016,522 156,849,974 162,939,928 168,517,826 174,275,881 180,187,464 186,326,665 192,430,888 198,791,969 205,241,382 211,398,623 - - - - - - - - - - - 81 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORN SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITU PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABL Household Population Employment Population (Per Capita Equiv) Total Population Per Capita by Category: General Government Community Development Public Works/Engineering Community Services Public Safety: Police Services Fire Services Animal Control Services Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Per Capita by Department: City Council Boards & Commissions City Clerk City Attorney Administration Info Tech Services Human Resources Finance Non-Departmental Animal Care Facility Economic Development Planning & Building Engineering/CIP Projects Police Fire Public Works Recreation Library General Fund Totals FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 335,395 340,215 342,066 343,844 345,651 347,440 349,185 350,894 352,560 16,770 17,011 17,103 17,192 17,283 17,372 17,459 17,545 17,628 352,165 357,226 359,169 361,036 362,933 364,812 366,644 368,438 370,188 71.38$ 72.48$ 74.25$ 76.08$ 77.96$ 79.88$ 81.87$ 83.91$ 86.02$ 12.61 12.80 13.12 13.44 13.77 14.11 14.46 14.82 15.20 55.54 56.39 57.77 59.20 60.65 62.15 63.69 65.29 66.93 60.92 61.86 63.37 64.93 66.53 68.18 69.87 71.62 73.42 276.06 280.32 287.16 294.25 301.49 308.94 316.62 324.53 332.68 130.45 132.46 135.69 139.04 142.46 145.98 149.61 153.35 157.20 11.33 11.51 11.79 12.08 12.38 12.68 13.00 13.32 13.66 417.84 424.28 434.64 445.37 456.33 467.60 479.22 491.20 503.54 618.29$ 627.82$ 643.15$ 659.02$ 675.25$ 691.92$ 709.12$ 726.83$ 745.10$ 2.56$ 2.60$ 2.66$ 2.73$ 2.80$ 2.87$ 2.94$ 3.01$ 3.09$ 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 4.10 4.16 4.26 4.37 4.48 4.59 4.70 4.82 4.94 12.88 13.08 13.40 13.73 14.07 14.42 14.78 15.15 15.53 8.47 8.60 8.81 9.03 9.25 9.48 9.72 9.96 10.21 15.26 15.49 15.87 16.26 16.66 17.07 17.50 17.93 18.38 12.13 12.32 12.62 12.93 13.25 13.58 13.92 14.26 14.62 15.93 16.18 16.57 16.98 17.40 17.83 18.27 18.73 19.20 - - - - - - - - - 11.33 11.51 11.79 12.08 12.38 12.68 13.00 13.32 13.66 8.67 8.80 9.02 9.24 9.47 9.70 9.94 10.19 10.45 3.94 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.41 4.52 4.63 4.75 36.67 37.24 38.15 39.09 40.05 41.04 42.06 43.11 44.19 276.06 280.32 287.16 294.25 301.49 308.94 316.62 324.53 332.68 130.45 132.46 135.69 139.04 142.46 145.98 149.61 153.35 157.20 18.87 19.16 19.62 20.11 20.60 21.11 21.64 22.18 22.74 44.43 45.12 46.22 47.36 48.52 49.72 50.96 52.23 53.54 16.49 16.74 17.15 17.58 18.01 18.45 18.91 19.38 19.87 618.29$ 627.82$ 643.15$ 659.02$ 675.25$ 691.92$ 709.12$ 726.83$ 745.10$ 82 CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORN SELECTED ANALYSIS - EXPENDITU PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABL FULL FISCAL IMPACT - FORECA General Government Community Development Public Works/Engineering Community Services Public Safety: Police Services Fire Services Animal Control Serv Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expend DEPARTMENT NAME CITY COUNCIL BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS CITY CLERK CITY ATTORNEY ADMINISTRATION INFO TECH SRVCS HUMAN RESOURCES FINANCE NON-DEPARTMENTAL ANIMAL CARE FACILITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICE ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS POLICE FIRE PUBLIC WORKS RECREATION LIBRARY GENERAL FUND TOTALS FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 25,138,362 25,892,513 26,669,288 27,469,367 28,293,448 29,142,251 30,016,519 30,917,014 31,844,525 4,440,708 4,573,930 4,711,148 4,852,482 4,998,056 5,147,998 5,302,438 5,461,511 5,625,357 19,558,020 20,144,761 20,749,103 21,371,577 22,012,724 22,673,106 23,353,299 24,053,898 24,775,515 21,454,110 22,097,733 22,760,665 23,443,485 24,146,789 24,871,193 25,617,329 26,385,849 27,177,424 97,219,898 100,136,494 103,140,589 106,234,807 109,421,851 112,704,507 116,085,642 119,568,211 123,155,257 45,938,996 47,317,166 48,736,681 50,198,781 51,704,744 53,255,887 54,853,563 56,499,170 58,194,145 3,990,489 4,110,203 4,233,510 4,360,515 4,491,330 4,626,070 4,764,852 4,907,798 5,055,032 147,149,382 151,563,863 156,110,779 160,794,103 165,617,926 170,586,464 175,704,058 180,975,179 186,404,435 217,740,582 224,272,799 231,000,983 237,931,013 245,068,943 252,421,012 259,993,642 267,793,451 275,827,255 902,239 929,306 957,185 985,901 1,015,478 1,045,942 1,077,320 1,109,640 1,142,929 16,713 17,214 17,731 18,263 18,811 19,375 19,956 20,555 21,172 1,443,057 1,486,349 1,530,940 1,576,868 1,624,174 1,672,899 1,723,086 1,774,778 1,828,022 4,537,134 4,673,248 4,813,446 4,957,849 5,106,585 5,259,782 5,417,576 5,580,103 5,747,506 2,983,167 3,072,662 3,164,842 3,259,787 3,357,581 3,458,308 3,562,057 3,668,919 3,778,986 5,372,290 5,533,459 5,699,463 5,870,447 6,046,560 6,227,957 6,414,795 6,607,239 6,805,457 4,272,889 4,401,075 4,533,108 4,669,101 4,809,174 4,953,449 5,102,053 5,255,114 5,412,768 5,610,872 5,779,199 5,952,575 6,131,152 6,315,086 6,504,539 6,699,675 6,900,665 7,107,685 - - - - - - - - - 3,990,489 4,110,203 4,233,510 4,360,515 4,491,330 4,626,070 4,764,852 4,907,798 5,055,032 3,052,609 3,144,187 3,238,513 3,335,668 3,435,738 3,538,810 3,644,974 3,754,324 3,866,953 1,388,100 1,429,743 1,472,635 1,516,814 1,562,319 1,609,188 1,657,464 1,707,188 1,758,403 12,914,048 13,301,470 13,700,514 14,111,529 14,534,875 14,970,922 15,420,049 15,882,651 16,359,130 97,219,898 100,136,494 103,140,589 106,234,807 109,421,851 112,704,507 116,085,642 119,568,211 123,155,257 45,938,996 47,317,166 48,736,681 50,198,781 51,704,744 53,255,887 54,853,563 56,499,170 58,194,145 6,643,972 6,843,291 7,048,589 7,260,047 7,477,849 7,702,184 7,933,249 8,171,247 8,416,384 15,646,896 16,116,303 16,599,792 17,097,786 17,610,719 18,139,041 18,683,212 19,243,709 19,821,020 5,807,214 5,981,430 6,160,873 6,345,699 6,536,070 6,732,152 6,934,117 7,142,140 7,356,404 217,740,582 224,272,799 231,000,983 237,931,013 245,068,943 252,421,012 259,993,642 267,793,451 275,827,255 - - - - - - - - - 83 FUNCTIONAL AREA RECONCILED ITEMS TO PUBLISHED BUDGET PERSONNEL SERVICES SUPPLIES & SERVICES UTILITIES OTHER OPERATING CAPITAL XFERS OUT INTERNAL SERVICE CHARGES AMENDED FY2019- 20 TOTAL ELIMINATION ENTRY RECLASS NON- DEPARTMENTAL COSTS RECLASS NON- DEPARTMENTAL COSTS REVISED TOTALS TRANSFERS IN City 10 Year Model REVISED TOTALS General Government 15,592,728$ 2,924,966$ 20,259$ -$ 123,915$ -$ -$ 18,661,868$ -$ -$ 454,715$ 19,116,583$ (956,096) - 18,160,487$ Community Development 4,621,535 343,316 4,872 12,000 2,020 - 23,635 5,007,378 - - 124,332 5,131,710 (1,923,648) - 3,208,062 Public Works/Engineering 16,361,728 1,792,632 1,457,593 123,500 150,171 386,611 609,443 20,881,678 - - 673,694 21,555,372 (7,687,751) 350,000 14,217,621 Community Services 10,814,949 1,185,597 2,881,712 81,300 2,523 - 324,262 15,290,343 - - 208,562 15,498,905 - - 15,498,905 Public Safety - Police Services3 54,776,784 2,010,850 412,372 103,243 - - 1,000,423 58,303,672 - 2,233,778 1,413,564 61,951,014 (587,640) 1,630,000 62,993,374 Fire Services4 28,491,107 2,131,858 193,717 - - 62,326 955,878 31,834,886 - -703,874 32,538,760 (1,143,502) 1,660,000 33,055,258 Animal Control Services 2,348,400 351,949 42,296 4,500 6,282 - 53,200 2,806,627 - -76,187 2,882,814 - - 2,882,814 Non-Departmental (153,983) 1,668,697 3,984 454,622 - 42,207,075 - 44,180,395 (36,767,305) (2,233,778) (3,654,929) 1,524,383 (1,524,383) - - 132,853,248$ 12,409,865$ 5,016,805$ 779,165$ 284,911$ 42,656,012$ 2,966,841$ 196,966,847$ (36,767,305)$ -$ -$ 160,199,542$ (13,823,020)$ 3,640,000$ 150,016,522$ FY2019-20 ADOPTED FY2019- 20 DEPT DEPARTMENT NAME PERSONNEL SERVICES SUPPLIES & SERVICES UTILITIES OTHER OPERATING CAPITAL XFERS OUT INTERNAL SERVICE CHARGES TOTAL ELIMINATION ENTRY AND 1ST QUARTER ADJUSTMENTS RECLASS FOR POLICE SPREAD REVISED TOTALS TRANSFERS IN City 10 Year Model REVISED TOTALS 01100 CITY COUNCIL 1,456,659$ 105,880$ 1,307$ -$ 3,190$ -$ -$ 1,567,036$ 40,857 1,607,893$ (956,096) - 651,797$ 02000 BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS - 11,841 - - - - - 11,841 - 233 12,074 - - 12,074 03000 CITY CLERK 858,657 159,285 688 - - - - 1,018,630 23,865 1,042,495 - - 1,042,495 04000 CITY ATTORNEY 2,886,587 308,800 1,856 - 4,948 - - 3,202,191 75,531 3,277,722 - - 3,277,722 05000 ADMINISTRATION 1,948,791 150,187 832 - 3,416 - - 2,103,226 51,877 2,155,103 - - 2,155,103 06000 INFO TECH SRVCS 2,349,498 1,335,947 11,907 - 87,890 - - 3,785,242 95,815 3,881,057 - - 3,881,057 07000 HUMAN RESOURCES 2,587,023 418,970 1,457 - 8,972 - - 3,016,422 - 70,404 3,086,826 - - 3,086,826 08000 FINANCE 3,505,513 434,056 2,212 - 15,499 - - 3,957,280 96,134 4,053,414 - - 4,053,414 09000 NON-DEPARTMENTAL (153,983) 1,668,697 3,984 454,622 - 42,207,075 - 44,180,395 (36,767,305) (2,233,778) (3,654,929) 1,524,383 (1,524,383) - - 10000 ANIMAL CARE FACILITY 2,348,400 351,949 42,296 4,500 6,282 - 53,200 2,806,627 76,187 2,882,814 - - 2,882,814 11000 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1,977,144 168,422 2,497 - 1,520 - - 2,149,583 - 55,686 2,205,269 - - 2,205,269 12000 PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICES 2,644,391 174,894 2,375 12,000 500 - 23,635 2,857,795 - 68,646 2,926,441 (1,923,648) - 1,002,793 13000 ENGINEERING AND CIP PROJECTS 7,229,662 366,083 863,671 108,500 10,000 386,611 144,695 9,109,222 220,161 9,329,383 - - 9,329,383 14000 POLICE 54,776,784 2,010,850 412,372 103,243 - - 1,000,423 58,303,672 - 2,233,778 1,413,564 61,951,014 (587,640) 1,630,000 62,993,374 15000 FIRE 28,491,107 2,131,858 193,717 - - 62,326 955,878 31,834,886 703,874 32,538,760 (1,143,502) 1,660,000 33,055,258 16000 PUBLIC WORKS 9,132,066 1,426,549 593,922 15,000 140,171 - 464,748 11,772,456 453,532 12,225,988 (7,687,751) 350,000 4,888,237 17000 RECREATION 7,219,052 959,603 2,608,646 80,900 2,523 - 320,917 11,191,641 112,010 11,303,651 - - 11,303,651 18000 LIBRARY 3,595,897 225,994 273,066 400 - - 3,345 4,098,702 - 96,553 4,195,255 - - 4,195,255 GENERAL FUND TOTALS 132,853,248$ 12,409,865$ 5,016,805$ 779,165$ 284,911$ 42,656,012$ 2,966,841$ 196,966,847$ (36,767,305)$ -$ -$ 160,199,542$ (13,823,020)$ 3,640,000$ 150,016,522$ 0.829298551 84 MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL Appendix D Recent Industrial Sales Comparables MOSS STREET RESIDENTIAL SUMMARY OF CITY NET FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 676 Moss Street – Proposed General Plan Amendments Prepared For: SLF-Moss Street, LLC Preparers: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 858.614.5000 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dan Wery, AICP, LEED AP JN 167467 1230 Rosecrans Ave., Suite 630 Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 424.297.1070 www.kosmont.com Contact: Wil Soholt Prepared For: SLF-Moss Street, LLC Preparers: 9755 Clairemont Mesa Blvd San Diego, CA 92124 858.614.5000 www.mbakerintl.com Contact: Dan Wery, AICP, LEED AP JN 167467 1230 Rosecrans Ave., Suite 630 Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 424.297.1070 www.kosmont.com Contact: Wil Soholt May 2020 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page i INDUSTRIAL LANDS AND AREA OF CHANGE ANALYSIS ............................................................. 1 Background and Purpose ........................................................................................................... 1 Project Description .................................................................................................................... 1 Process ...................................................................................................................................... 2 General Plan Policy Consistency ................................................................................................ 2 Preservation of Industrial Lands ................................................................................................ 3 Unique Circumstances and Limited Implications ....................................................................... 3 Minimal Effect on Industrial Jobs, Revenue, or Capacity ........................................................... 4 Fiscal Impact Analysis ................................................................................................................ 5 Significant Benefit .................................................................................................................. 5 Jobs-Housing Ratio ................................................................................................................ 5 Industrial Redevelopment Scenario ........................................................................................ 6 EMPLOYMENT LANDS ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 6 Summary Findings ..................................................................................................................... 6 Current Industrial Market Trends .............................................................................................. 7 Long-Term Industrial Market Demand ...................................................................................... 9 Industrial Employment ........................................................................................................... 9 Industrial Employment Density ............................................................................................ 11 Required Industrial Building Area ........................................................................................ 11 Required Industrial Land ...................................................................................................... 11 L STREET TROLLEY .................................................................................................................. 12 Policy, Process, and Criteria ..................................................................................................... 12 Project Consistent with Possible Trolley Uses ......................................................................... 13 Transitional Use ....................................................................................................................... 13 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................................... 14 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 15 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page ii Figure 1: Industrial Net Absorption, Net Deliveries, and Vacancy within City of Chula Vista ...................... 7 Figure 2: Industrial Market Rent Growth within City of Chula Vista ............................................................ 8 Figure 3: Industrial Market Rent Per Square Foot within City of Chula Vista ............................................... 8 Figure 4: Past and Future Industrial Deliveries in Square Feet within City of Chula Vista ........................... 9 Table 1: Estimate of Land Acres Required to Support City of Chula Vista Industrial Demand .............................. 10 1. Existing General Plan Designation 2. Project Site and Areas of Consideration 3. E and H Street Stations – Surrounding Land Uses 4. Area of Consideration with L Street Station 5. Bayfront Development Project 6. Citywide Industrial Lands 7. Nearby Public Facilities 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 1 SLF-Moss Street, LLC (applicant) is currently pursuing entitlements to facilitate the development of a residential community (project) on an approximately 6.9-acre site (site) at 676 Moss Street in Chula Vista, California (City). The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the proposed change in the General Plan land use designation and zoning from Limited Industrial (I-L) to Residential High (R-3) in the context of the broader geographic area and with respect to potential impacts on: ▪ Other industrial lands; ▪ The demand and capacity of employment-centered land uses; ▪ The fiscal health of the City; ▪ The existing and appropriate future uses in the area; and ▪ The potential for and implications of a new trolley station at L Street. In addressing these issues, this analysis evaluated the relative strength and value of the property and context of industrial lands; the fiscal impacts of the project; and the land use policy and compatibility with existing and possible future land uses in the area. This analysis also included a detailed review of employment-centered land uses and future demands in the City. The project is compatible with all existing and potential land uses, and neither induces nor precludes the conversion of adjacent industrial lands. The project will have a negligible effect on the citywide employment capacity, and the City will still have more than 18 times the amount of industrially zoned lands of the 76 acres needed to meet future industrial demand projections in 20351 and nearly 9 times the amount of the 157 acres needed through 2050.2 The site is currently utilized for a variety of industrial uses including heavy equipment rentals, shipping container repair and storage, boat repair, and sandblasting material and equipment supply. The proposed project would redevelop the site with approximately 141 residential dwelling units ranging in size from roughly 1,175 to 1,950 square feet. The project’s total value is estimated at approximately $77 million, and project construction is expected to support a total of 612 direct, indirect, and induced jobs. The project requires a General Plan Amendment and rezone to change the land use and zoning from Limited Industrial (I-L) to Residential High (R-3). Requested entitlements also include Site Development Plan, Design Review, and Tentative Map approvals. 1 2,145 total acres – 731 acres in use – 7 rezoned to residential /Year 2035 demand of 76 acres = 18.5x demand. 2 2,145 total acres – 731 acres in use – 7 rezoned to residential /Year 2050 demand of 157 acres = 8.9x demand. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 2 This project evaluation followed that of the 2005 Chula Vista General Plan Focus ed Area of Changes. The recommended existing and proposed land uses and zoning were identified and evaluated for areas roughly within one-half mile of the project site, as well as the planned land use and zoning patterns around the three nearest trolley stations at Palomar Street, H Street, and E Street. Land uses in the study area were segregated into three categories: stable residential neighborhoods and nonresidential uses not likely to change, transitional areas, and potential areas of change. Most of the surrounding uses are consistent with the proposed project and would not be susceptible to change. Surrounding uses include: ▪ Single-family and multi-family residential neighborhoods ▪ Public facilities, such as schools and parks ▪ Recently approved or constructed development projects ▪ Recently re-designated and rezoned properties ▪ Narrow industrial lots (between Colorado Avenue and the railroad), specifically identified in the General Plan ▪ Currently vacant lands (between I-5 and Industrial Boulevard) This resulted in a focus on the project site and the other properties zoned Industrial (I-L) within the block. The series of seven exhibits in Appendix A identifies the project site in the context of the existing uses, General Plan land use designations, land uses not subject to change, use patterns around the E Street and H Street trolley stations, a potential L Street trolley station, the Bayfront Development Project, existing industrially zoned lands, and nearby public facilities. Several of the exhibits have notations to explain the relevant issues and considerations included in this report. In general, the revised General Plan Amendment Consistency Analysis demonstrates the project is consistent with and implements all of the applicable General Plan policies, goals, and objectives. While the project appears contrary to Policy ED 1.3, which states “Encourage the preservation and expansion of existing industrial uses in areas designated as industrial,” it meets the objectives of the policy to ensure the long-term fiscal health and economic vitality of the City. The project will: ▪ Generate more than $311,000 in net General Fund revenues to the City over a 20-year period. ▪ Replace an existing industrial use that loses money for the City each year, forever, with a project that will be net positive in perpetuity. ▪ Enhance land use compatibility by removing an unattractive and blighted industrial use that diminishes the value of and investment in surrounding residential property. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 3 ▪ Clean up the site, which would likely be economically infeasible for industrial reuse. ▪ Complete planned improvements including curb, sidewalks, and landscaping along Moss Street to the benefit of the entire neighborhood. ▪ Contribute $1.35 million toward new and improved parks. ▪ Contribute toward capital improvements in the neighborhood to reduce traffic throughout the neighborhood. ▪ Benefit businesses in the South Broadway Corridor by adding customers within a short walking distance. ▪ Locate higher density residential uses within high-quality transit corridors. ▪ Provide increased opportunities for homeownership. See Exhibits 1–3 of Appendix A related to the existing and proposed changes to the General Plan land use. The project will have a minimal effect on the capacity for industrial development and the jobs-housing balance, will not induce or set a precedent for other conversion, and will result in significant net positive revenue to the City. The detailed Employment Lands Analysis prepared by Kosmont Companies and included in this report demonstrates the City’s currently designated industrial land significantly exceeds the projected demand for industrial lands through a Year 2050 horizon. The project site is different from most other industrially zoned lands in Chula Vista. The unique aspects of the site restrict and limit the implications of the proposed land use and zoning change to this property. The project site is surrounded by stable residential neighborhoods. It is one of the few industrially zoned properties in the City that has a traditional industrial use with heavy machinery, outdoor storage, and operations. These are the most noxious and least compatible uses for the adjoining residential neighbors. Most other uses in the nearby industrial lands tend toward retail commercial operations. The few other industrial properties in the City that share more than one side with residential sites typically have uses that are indoor in nature and have substantial buffers or setbacks between the residential and industrial uses. The project site abuts a high-density residential apartment complex, and its frontage directly faces a neighborhood of single-family homes. The residential surroundings limit the ability of the site to be converted to more intensive industrial uses because of the negative effects on air quality, water quality, and noise. The project is not attractive for industrial investment and reuse because of the adjacent residential uses. The project site neither induces nor restricts conversion of adjacent industrial lands to residential or other uses. The property is physically independent of the other industrially zoned lands. It does not share or need access, utilities, or reciprocal easements. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 4 The site has had little capital investment since construction in the 1960s and appears to have reached the end of its useful life. The buildings are of little value for reuse due to their age and simple construction. The rents and lease rates are toward the low end of the range in Chula Vista and the region, with rents between approximately 1 and 6 dollars per square foot of building area, which is 7 percent to 43 percent of the City average of 14 dollars per square foot of building area.3 Industrial reuse of the site is likely to be economically infeasible due to site remediation costs and because a major underground drainage channel divides the property and poses limitations on site use. A more intensive industrial use would be incompatible with the residential neighbors, just as the existing use is. These factors make productive higher and better industrial operations unrealistic for the site. As discussed in the Fiscal Impact Analysis, the property would not be able to financially support industrial redevelopment. The proposed townhome condominiums are the highest and best use of the property. This boundary between residential and industrial uses does not logically extend farther than the project site. The industrially zoned sites between Industrial Boulevard and Interstate 5 are not attractive or suitable for new residential development. Like the adjacent lands along L Street to the north, they were developed more for commercial uses than traditional industrial use. The Sweetwater Unified School District property to the north was already considered for residential development well before and independent of any such consideration for the project site. The large, well-maintained buildings along L Street are occupied by viable commercial uses (Avis, Napa Auto Parts, Harbor Freight, fitness center, and office uses), which makes them more expensive and less attractive to redevelop. As such, the unique aspects of the project site and its surroundings restrict and limit the implications of the proposed land use and zoning change to this property. The proposed residential uses will positively contribute to community character, housing availability, and business vitality along Broadway. The proposed conversion of the 7-acre project site will have a minimal effect on industrial jobs, revenue, or capacity. It represents an insignificant amount (0.37 percent) of the total 1,885 acres of lands zoned Limited Industrial in the City. Even the entire industrial node between L Street and Moss Street represents less than 2 percent of total industrially zoned lands. See Exhibit 6, Citywide Industrial Lands, in Appendix A. While the project would require the existing operations to leave the site, that does not mean the relatively few jobs they generate would be lost. Rather, they could relocate nearby in the City. There is weak demand for industrial space in the immediately surrounding area as evidenced by the vacant industrially zoned land along Industrial Boulevard, the little or no capital investment in the subject property and surrounding area, and the relatively low value of the few recent improvements. There are two vacant industrially zoned sites on the west side of Industrial Boulevard: a former amusement park and the former Toys “R” Us. One of the newest facilities in the area is the self-storage facility on the 1.2- acre parcel between Interstate 5 and Industrial Boulevard on the north side of L Street. Another self- storage facility is proposed for the former Toys “R” Us site. The number and value of the jobs from these 3 676 Moss Street Rent Roll, 2018; Employment Lands Analysis, Kosmont, 2020 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 5 properties is low, and self-storage does not contribute meaningfully to the community through jobs, housing, or street activation. The new Bayfront Development Project will provide additional new, more competitive planned industrial land west of Interstate 5. This will likely further diminish the demand and value of the project site for industrial use. See Exhibit 5 in Appendix A for the relationship to the Bayfront Development Project. The new residents at the project site will help increase demand for and revitalize the commercial uses along the South Broadway Corridor by being within convenient walking distance to neighborhood businesses. Furthermore, the new housing stock will be attractive to and support the future 2,000 jobs from the Bayfront Development Project. The Fiscal Impact Analysis prepared by Kosmont Companies is summarized below. The analysis concludes the proposed residential condominiums would generate significant positive revenues for the City annually in perpetuity, whereas the existing industrial use creates a net fiscal deficit annually in perpetuity. The project will remove and replace the blighted site and incompatible industrial uses with a $77 million investment in modern market-rate condominiums that will increase the value and quality of life for the neighboring residents and the entire neighborhood. As documented in the Fiscal Impact Analysis submitted separately, the project will generate a significant positive net revenue of approximately $311,000 over a 20-year timeline. The existing industrial use creates an annual net fiscal deficit of approximately $1,300 to $1,800, for a cumulative average deficit of approximately $29,000 over a 20-year timeline. Compared to the existing use, the project will provide a $340,000 benefit to the City over 20 years, not including any additional fees or improvements. Combined with an estimated $1.35 million toward new parks and completion of the Moss Street frontage, sidewalks, curbing, and landscaping, the project will have a significant long-term economic benefit for the immediate neighborhood and the City as a whole. The site has less than 0.05 percent of jobs in the City, and the project would result in a 0.16 percent increase in housing units.4 It is likely that all or some of the current jobs would simply relocate to more appropriate and attractive available spaces nearby. In the unlikely worst-case scenario where the existing 37 jobs5 on the site are not relocated or replaced in the City, the project would still have an extremely small impact (0.2 percent) on the current jobs-housing ratio. Further, new residents in the project will increase demand for more local employment and businesses, such as along South Broadway to the east. 4 Based on the SANDAG Regional Growth forecast of 82,146 civilian jobs and 88,186 housing units in Chula Vista in 2020. 5 The businesses included up to 37 full time employees in January 2020 based on calls to each business: Hawthorne Equipment Rental (14); SW Mobile Storage (6); Rapid Prep/Boat repair (7); Kleen Blast (10). 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 6 The 30 to 40 current jobs are insignificant compared to the 2,000 permanent jobs projected for the Bayfront Development Project. Hawthorne Equipment Rental plans to move its operations to the former amusement park site on the east side of Industrial, so those 14 jobs will not be lost, but simply relocated a few hundred feet as a result of the project. The project site could not be feasibly redeveloped for new industrial uses. Kosmont Companies evaluated the potential market value for the site and potential industrial uses that are allowed by the zoning, concluding the industrial condominiums represent the most valuable use of the site in an industrial redevelopment scenario. Based on anticipated construction and potential project sales prices, development of industrial condominiums is not feasible because the residual land value would be lower than the value of the existing land and improvements of the site. The most likely scenario if the site remains industrial is an eventual sale and reassessment without additional improvements to the existing structures. The reassessment would lead to an increase in taxable value, creating a net revenue of approximately $155,000 over 20 years. This is slightly less than half of the net revenue that would be generated by the proposed residential condominiums (approximately $311,000). The proposed project would include the rezoning of the site from Limited Industrial (I-L) to Residential High (R-3). The Employment Lands Analysis evaluates how rezoning could potentially impact the demand for industrial land within the City. An analysis of San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) projections of industrial employment within the City concludes that land currently designated for industrial uses within the City (2,145 acres) significantly exceeds the projected demand for industrial land through the 2050 SANDAG projection horizon (888 acres at a 0.4 floor area ratio [FAR]). The proposed General Plan Amendment and rezone would not impact the ability of the City to meet future demand. While the property is not currently zoned for office use, the analysis concludes there may be a potential deficit in land designated for office uses in the City (160 acres) relative to the demand (205 acres at a 1.0 FAR) that may exist within the 2050 SANDAG projection horizon. This projected demand may be satisfied by greater development intensity (above 1.0 FAR) or the inclusion of and technological shifts in the office market that drive reductions in space requirements per employee. Professional and administrative office uses are not allowed by the property’s existing zoning, so the proposed General Plan Amendment and rezone would not affect available office lands in the City. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 7 Pursuant to data from CoStar, the City’s industrial market comprises approximately 9.8 million square feet of building area (gross internal area) as of Year 2020. The vacancy rate for industrial properties in the City is approximately 4.6 percent, and market rents average approximately $14.00 per square foot. Year over year (2019 versus 2020), industrial vacancy has increased by 1.1 percent, driven by negative absorption of 113,000 square feet, while rent has increased by 4.6 percent. New building deliveries, including the Otay River Business Park, are expected to add approximately 178,000 industrial square feet within the next two years. As illustrated in Figure 1, Industrial Net Absorption, Net Deliveries, and Vacancy within City of Chula Vista, vacancy in the City is lower than in the greater San Diego market, though projections suggest industrial vacancy will increase within both the City and the greater San Diego market in the next few years. Source: CoStar, 2020 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 8 As illustrated in Figure 2, Industrial Market Rent Growth within City of Chula Vista, industrial rent growth has been reasonably strong over the last six years, ranging from roughly 4 percent to 8 percent, though it is projected to decrease in the near future. Source: CoStar, 2020 As illustrated in Figure 3, Industrial Market Rent per Square Foot within City of Chula Vista, rent growth has resulted in average industrial rental rates within the City growing from approximately $10 per square foot in 2014 to approximately $14 in 2020. Flex industrial and the broader San Diego market have commanded rents roughly 40 percent and 20 percent higher, respectively, than the City average. Source: CoStar, 2020 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 9 As previously stated, it is anticipated approximately 178,000 square feet of industrial space is expected to be delivered in the City within the next two years. As illustrated in Figure 4, Past and Future Industrial Deliveries in Square Feet within City of Chula Vista, substantially all of this additional space is currently expected to be delivered in mid- to late- 2020. Source: CoStar, 2020 A determination on the sufficiency of existing industrial zoned land in the City was completed by evaluating the following: ▪ Industrial Employment: Long-term industrial employment within the City as projected by SANDAG for 2020, 2035, and 2050. ▪ Industrial Employment Density: Existing industrial building area (square footage) that currently supports the existing industrial employment. This estimates the average amount of industrial building area required for each industrial employee. ▪ Required Industrial Building Area: The required amount of industrial building area (square footage) to support future industrial employment. ▪ Required Industrial Land: The land area required to construct the projected amount of required industrial building area. Analyzing future industrial demand utilized SANDAG estimates of current and future industrial employment in the City. Aggregation of projected manufacturing jobs, wholesale jobs, and transportation and warehousing jobs for SANDAG Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) within the City identified the projected industrial jobs (see Appendix B and Appendix C). This analysis suggests there are currently 8,990 industrial jobs in the City, and there are projected to be 9,944 industrial jobs in 2035, and 11,204 industrial jobs in 2050 (refer to Table 1, Estimate of Lands Required to Support City of Chula Vista Industrial Demand). 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 10 TABLE 1: ESTIMATE OF LAND ACRES REQUIRED TO SUPPORT CITY OF CHULA VISTA INDUSTRIAL DEMAND 1. Source: SANDAG Series 12 2050 Regional Growth Forecast; manufacturing jobs, wholesale jobs, and transportation and warehousing jobs. 2. 2020 industrial building inventory from CoStar (2020). Required square feet utilizes existing employment density as of 2020 (1,043 square feet per industrial employee) on a go forward basis to estimate future square foot demand based on industrial employment growth. 3. Existing industrial vacancy is 4.6% (CoStar); 7% utilized as a stabilized figure in the future from 2012 AECOM Analysis. 4. Projected industrial employees multiplied by 1,043 (square feet), plus 7.0% vacancy factor. 5. SANDAG 2010 existing industrial land area. 6. Projected increase in required industrial building area divided by square feet in an acre (43,560), divided by 0.40 FAR. 7. The range of FAR reflects the range given in the City’s General Plan. 8. 2020 industrial building inventory divided by 2020 estimate of industrial employees. 9. 2020 industrial building inventory divided by square feet in an acre (43,560), divided by SANDAG 2010 estimate of existing industrial land area. 2020 2035 2050 Industrial Employment in City 8,990 9,944 11,204 1 Required Industrial SF 9,378,220 10,373,417 11,687,828 2 Assumed Vacancy 4.6% 7.0% 7.0% 3 Required Industrial SF w/Vacancy 9,830,419 11,154,212 12,567,557 4 Increase in SF from 2020 Supply 1,323,793 2,737,138 General Plan Industrial Acres 2,145 2,145 2,145 SANDAG Estimated of Current Acres 731 731 731 5 Required Acres at 0.40 FAR 76 157 6 Total Required Acres 731 807 888 Required Industrial Acres at FAR 2020 2035 2050 7 0.25 852 982 0.40 807 888 0.55 786 845 Surplus Industrial Acres at FAR 2020 2035 2050 0.25 1,293 1,163 0.40 1,338 1,257 0.55 1,359 1,300 Effective Building SF / Job 1,043 8 Current Inventory FAR 0.31 9 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 11 Leased industrial building area divided by the current estimate of employees in industrial sectors gives the estimate of current employment density. This yields an average of 1,043 square feet of industrial building area per employee. For reference, in 2012, AECOM prepared a Cumulative Employment Lands and Fiscal Impact Analysis (2012 AECOM Analysis) in which an assumption of 900 square feet per employee was used. Although the 2012 AECOM Analysis estimate is reasonable, the more conservative estimate of 1,043 square feet per employee is used herein as it assumes more industrial building area is required per employee in current and future demand estimates. The current employment density of the project site is approximately 1,225 square feet of building area per employee, which is roughly 17 percent lower than the conservative estimate and 36 percent lower than the 2012 AECOM Analysis. The building area required for each employee (1,043 square feet) multiplied by the estimated number of industrial employees in 2035 and 2050 gives the estimate of required industrial building area. Including a stabilized vacancy factor of 7 percent (carried over from the 2012 AECOM Analysis), the City will require approximately 11.2 million and 12.6 million square feet of industrial building area in 2035 and 2050, respectively. This represents an increase of approximately 1.3 million and 2.7 million square feet over current inventory levels (refer to Table 1). A higher FAR decreases the amount of land needed to support the required industrial building area, while a lower FAR increases the amount of land required. This analysis used a FAR of 0.40 to estimate the amount of industrial land area required to support the estimated increase in industrial building area. For reference, the 2012 AECOM Analysis also used a 0.40 FAR for General Industrial, though a 0.50 FAR was used for Research/Limited Industrial in that analysis. Based on current building profiles, the 0.40 FAR appears appropriate as a general assumption, and it yields a demand for 76 additional acres of industrial land in the City by 2035, and an additional 157 acres by 2050. Based on SANDAG analysis, approximately 731 acres of industrial property were in use in the City as of 2010. Given the current inventory of approximately 9.8 million square feet of industrial building area within the City (and assuming no significant change in industrial land area between 2010 and 2020), the current inventory of industrial building area has a FAR of approximately 0.31. This is reflective of the historically lower building intensity per acre of land than currently seen in the new build/go forward industrial market. For reference, if the existing industrial building area (currently developed at a 0.31 FAR) is redeveloped at a higher FAR, the existing industrially developed land area would support additional industrial building area. With the existing inventory of 731 acres and the demand for 76 and 157 additional acres by 2035 and 2050, respectively, the total amount of industrial land required within the City is estimated to be approximately 807 acres for 2035 and 888 acres for 2050. Pursuant to the City’s General Plan, the City has 2,145 acres of industrially designated land. Thus, as shown in Table 1, there is currently a surplus of more than 1,200 acres of industrially designated land at the 2050 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 12 horizon on the analysis. As such, this analysis concludes there is more than an adequate supply (8.9 times the estimated demand6) of industrially zoned land within the City. The City requested an evaluation for the potential for and land use impacts of a new trolley station at L Street. This analysis considers the process and factors that go into a new station, including the land use implications. Ultimately, the project is an attractive, appropriate transitional use between the existing uses on L Street and any likely uses in the event an L Street station is desirable. While a new station at L Street is not beyond consideration, the planning process is complex, long term, and requires extensive long-range (often decades) planning on behalf of the City, SANDAG, and Metropolitan Transit System (MTS). Such a process is beyond the means, timeline, and responsibility of the applicant of a relatively small development project. L Street is roughly midway between the existing Blue Line trolley stations at Palomar Street and H Street and approximately one-quarter mile north of the project site. The project is approximately 0.6 miles from the Palomar Street station and approximately 1 mile from the H Street station to the north. The E Street, H Street, and Palomar Street trolley stations each required significant capital investments and transportation improvements with long-term planning and coordination with MTS and SANDAG. The areas around each station contain and/or are planned for intensive development, revitalization, and redevelopment. These are reflected in the existing Downtown Third Avenue, Chula Vista, and Broadway Activity Centers in the Urban Core north of the project and the Palomar Gateway and West Fairfield Districts to the south. Numerous planning documents were evaluated for guidance regarding a potential station at L Street. These included multiple SANDAG and MTS plans, guides and studies, the Chula Vista General Plan, Bayfront Development Master Plan, and the 2012 and 2017 Blue Line station studies by T.Y. Lin for the City. There is no existing policy that recommends, suggests, or supports a new trolley station at L Street. The complete lack of any mention of an L Street trolley in all studies and long-term transportation planning documents suggests significant constraints and limitations preclude such consideration. Consultation with SANDAG and MTS indicated any consideration of a new trolley is the responsibility of and requires very long-range and complex review and coordination with MTS, SANDAG, and the City, not a project applicant. Each noted there is no fixed process or criteria for construction of a new station; however, consideration generally involves a cost-benefit analysis based on ridership, land use, construction, operational maintenance impacts, and costs. 6 2,145 total acres – 731 acres in use – 7 rezoned to residential = 1,407 surplus acres. 1,407 surplus acres/2035 demand of 76 acres = 18.5x 2035 demand. 1,407 surplus acres/2050 demand of 157 acres = 8.9x 2050 demand. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 13 Initial reactions from both SANDAG and MTS suggested a new station at L Street would not be likely based on the following constraints: ▪ The Blue Line is already at or near capacity on many trips. There is little room on the trains for new riders during peak hours. ▪ A new station would add delays to the existing ridership. ▪ Significant construction, operational, maintenance, and security costs are not likely to be recovered. The 2017 study indicates the cost for grade-separated trolley stations at E Street and H Street is roughly $40 million each. That cost jumps to an estimated $270 million combined for the E Street and H Street stations if grade separation of heavy rail is included as preferred by the City. By means of comparison, MTS noted other at-grade stations currently under consideration have significantly more capacity for expanded ridership and far greater development density, yet are still not proving economically feasible. ▪ The Mid-Coast extension is expected to increase demand and capacity challenges on the Blue Line. It is noted that in the event a new station is deemed appropriate, the proposed Residential High land use and R-3 zone are consistent with the patterns used around the E Street and H Street trolley stations. The density exceeds the minimum 18 dwelling units per acre for urban areas cited in the SDMTS Designing for Transit and the 20 dwelling units per acre cited in the SANDAG Transit Oriented Communities. Residential High (R-3) is located adjacent to Mixed-Use Commercial and Transit Focus Area and within one-half block of both stations. See Exhibit 3, E and H Street Stations – Surrounding Land Uses, in Appendix A. Although L Street is on the extreme southern edge of the Urban Core, a similar pattern of Mixed-Use Transit Focus Area and/or Commercial designations could be applied to properties on L Street. There are, however, single-family neighborhoods on the north side that are unlikely to change. The proposed Residential High (R-3) would be a seamless transitional use and density between any such uses on L Street and the stable single-family residential uses south of Moss Street. More intensive mixed-use transit or commercial uses on Moss Street would not be compatible based on the limited size and capacity as a two- lane, Class III Collector, non-Circulation Element road. See Exhibit 4, Area of Consideration with L Street Station, in Appendix A. The proposed project is consistent with and is the most appropriate transitional use between the existing residential and industrial uses. As noted above, it is also consistent with the possible future redevelopment of the industrial lands to the north, including uses consistent with a L Street trolley (L Street Area). The project neither induces nor restricts the existing or future use of the adjacent sites. Rather, it reflects the logical land use and zoning that would be applied in the absence of the legacy industrial uses on the property. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 14 The project would have the same zoning as the adjacent multi-family project to the east. Its redevelopment with townhouse condos will not create a new or inappropriate land use or zoning relationship. The project would simply extend the boundary between the Residential High (R-3) and Limited Industrial (I-L) several hundred feet to the west. Simultaneously, the project would, consistent with best planning practices, create an identical land use and zoning relationship on both sides of Moss Street. This would improve the land use pattern and relationships along Moss Street. It is a logical extension that removes an awkward and incompatible situation and does not logically extend beyond the project site. See Exhibit 4, Area of Consideration with L Street Station, in Appendix A. The industrially zoned sites between Industrial Boulevard and Interstate 5 are not attractive or suitable for new residential development. Like the adjacent lands along L Street to the north, they were developed more for commercial uses than traditional industrial. The large, well-maintained buildings along L Street are occupied by viable commercial uses (Avis, Napa Auto Parts, Harbor Freight, fitness center, and office uses), which make them more expensive and less attractive to redevelop. Overall, the project strengthens and enhances the character of the existing residential neighborhood on Moss Street by removing incompatible and blighted industrial uses. It is consistent with any future uses associated with a possible future L Street trolley station. The project will neither induce nor prevent potential future uses of other industrial lands in the area. It will generate a significant positive annual revenue for the City in perpetuity. Redevelopment of the site for a more intensive industrial use is not feasible. The best prospect for maximizing tax revenue from the property as zoned would generate less than one-half of the projected net positive revenue as the proposed project. It will not materially affect the jobs-housing balance, nor the available lands to meet future industrial demand. It will contribute positively to the community character of southwest Chula Vista by enhancing the existing residential neighborhood and supporting the future Bayfront Development Project. It is consistent with and implements the policies and goals of the General Plan . Finally, it is an appropriate transitional use between the existing and possible future uses of adjacent lands, including the possible future uses associated with a new trolley station at L Street. 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Page 15 AECOM, 2012. City of Chula Vista Employment Lands Analysis City of Chula Vista, October 2015. General Plan: Vision 2020 City of Chula Vista, Municipal Code, Chapter 19, Planning and Zoning. 2020 Kosmont Companies, 2020. 676 Moss Street Fiscal Impact Analysis Kosmont Companies, 2020. City of Chula Vista Employment Lands Analysis Metropolitan Transit System, 2018. Designing for Transit Michael Baker International, 2020. 676 Moss Street General Plan Amendment Consistency Analysis Michael Baker International, 2020. 676 Moss Street General Plan Amendment Justification Report San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), 2010. Series 12: 2050 Regional Growth Forecast. San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), 2014. Transit Oriented Communities in the San Diego Region: Context Report T.Y. Lin International, 2012. Chula Vista Light Rail Corridor Improvements Project Study Report T.Y. Lin International, 2017. Chula Vista Light Rail Corridor Improvements Final Supplemental Project Study Report 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix Appendix A: Exhibits 1. Existing General Plan Designation 2. Project Site and Areas of Consideration 3. E and H Street Stations – Surrounding Land Uses 4. Area of Consideration with L Street Station 5. Bayfront Project 6. Citywide Industrial Lands 7. Nearby Public Facilities 4/ 2 9 / 2 0 1 9 J N H : \ P D A T A \ 1 6 7 4 6 7 S h o p p o f f C h u l a V i s t a \ G I S \ M X D \ A r e a o f C h a n g e 0 4 0 2 3 0 1 8 . m x d < U s e r N a m e > Source: Chula VIsta Open GIS Portal 0 500 Feet 676 MOSS STREET° Project Site Area of Consideration I I I IL RH RLM IL RLM PRK PQ RLM FWY RM RH CV RLM IL MUR RM CR PQ OS MUR RLM OS RH RMH RM MUR CR PQ IL OS OS OS OS MUR IL PQ RM L STREET MOSS STR E E T I N T E R S T A T E 5 B A Y B O U L E V A R D I N D U S T R I A L B O U L E V A R D C O L O R A D O A V E N U E B R O A D W A Y Exhibit 1 Existing General Plan Designation Project Site General Plan Amendment Shopoff Realty Investments proposes an amendment to the City of Chula Vista’s General Plan to allow development of a new condominium complex on a degraded 7-acre limited industrial site at 676 Moss Street (Project Site). The general plan amendment will convert the land use designation on the Project Site from Limited Industrial to High-Density Residential (R-3). Area of Consideration Adjacent to the project site is an area of approximately 30 acres of limited industrial land (Area of Consideration). Most of the Area of Consideration is owned by the Sweetwater Union Highschool District, and is developed with a mix of industrial, commercial, and office uses. In the future, the Area of Consideration may have potential for redevelopment and conversion to more intensive residential or commercial uses. Most existing structures and uses would need to be removed from the Area of Consideration for significant redevelopment to be viable. The 676 Moss Street Project does not propose to change any land uses in the Area of Consideration. This analysis was conducted to evaluate the compatibility of the project with both existing and potential uses in the Area of Consideration. The project is highly compatible with both the existing industrial uses and potential commercial, residential, or mixed uses. PROJECT SITE 4/ 2 9 / 2 0 1 9 J N H : \ P D A T A \ 1 6 7 4 6 7 S h o p p o f f C h u l a V i s t a \ G I S \ M X D \ A r e a o f C h a n g e 0 4 0 2 3 0 1 8 . m x d < U s e r N a m e > Source: Chula VIsta Open GIS Portal 0 500 Feet 676 MOSS STREET° Project Site Area of Consideration Not Subject to Change Limited Industrial Low to Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Mixed Use Residential L STREET MOSS STR E E T I N T E R S T A T E 5 B A Y B O U L E V A R D I N D U S T R I A L B O U L E V A R D C O L O R A D O A V E N U E B R O A D W A Y Exhibit 2 Not Subject to Change • Naturally affordable housing • Stable Neighborhoods • New Development • Industrial uses west of Colorado Ave. • Mixed Use Residential along Broadway Area of Consideration Potential uses for the Area of Consideration include: • Limited Industrial (existing) • High Density Residential • Urban Core Residential • Mixed Use Residential • Mixed Use Commercial • Mixed Use Transit Focused Area 676 Moss Street Project • Creates consistent and balanced residential land uses on both sides of Moss Street from Broadway to Colorado Avenue. • Strengthens and enhances the character of the existing residential neighborhood on Moss Street by removing incompatible and blighted industrial uses. • Is compatible with: ○Existing light industrial uses in the Area of Consideration. ○Existing light industrial uses at 694 Moss Street. ○Potential high density residential, urban core, transit-focused mixed use, and commercial visitor uses in the Area of Consideration. • Neither requires nor precludes redevelopment in the Area of Consideration. • Preserves industrial uses west of Colorado Avenue. • Invests millions of dollars into an underutilized and blighted property. • Provides a logical land use transition and buffer from low-medium density residential south of Moss Street. The Project would buffer homes south of Moss Street from: ○Existing limited industrial uses in the Area of Consideration. ○Any potential urban core, transit focused, or commercial development in the Area of Consideration. Project Site and Area of Consideration PROJECT SITE 4/ 1 6 / 2 0 1 9 J N H : \ P D A T A \ 1 6 7 4 6 7 S h o p p o f f C h u l a V i s t a \ G I S \ M X D \ A r e a o f C h a n g e 1 1 x 2 7 . m x d < U s e r N a m e > Source: Chula VIsta Open GIS Portal 0 500 Feet 676 MOSS STREET° Existing Stations Existing Station Quarter Mile Radius I CV OSP RLM OS RM WAT UCR PRK MUR RM PQ TFA OS OS RLM RH RMCV RLM TFA COIL RH MUR PQ RLM TFA RH RMH OS RM OSP RH I RH UCR RMH PQ CO PQ CV RH MUR MUC CO RLM PQ CR PQ RLM RMH RLM PQ CV CV PRK CO TFA MUC TFA RLM MUR RLM MUC UCR MUC CR RH CV RMH PQ PRK RH RMH RM RH RLM TFA FWY PQ OS MUR MUR PQ MUC OS MUR MUR CO OS OS OS MUR RM OSR CR OS OS RMH CO MUR CO CV PRK RLM MUR RLMMUR RH MUR RMH RLM PRK CV MUR BRH CO CO PRK CV CV RMH MUC CR RM MUR CR RH OS Exhibit 3 E Street Station General Plan Land Use Designations surrounding the E Street Station include: • Residential High Density • Mixed Use Transit Focus Area • Urban Core Residential • Commercial Visitor • Open Space • Mixed Use Commercial • Public/Quasi-Public • Residential Medium High Density • Commercial Retail H Street Station General Plan Land Use Designations surrounding the H Street Station include: • Residential High Density • Mixed Use Transit Focus Area • Urban Core Residential • Commercial Visitor • Industrial • Open-Space • Mixed Use Commercial • Public/Quasi-Public Implications on 676 Moss Street Project The High Density Residential designation proposed for the project site is reflective of comparable land uses within a quarter mile of the E and H Street Trolley Stations. If an L Street Station was proposed or desirable, the proposed condominiums at 676 Moss Street would complement and strengthen the viability of the station. The high density residential would be compatible with other potential transit- supportive uses, such as Mixed Use Transit Focus, Urban Core Residential, and Commercial Visitor. E and H Street Stations - Surrounding Land Uses 4/ 2 9 / 2 0 1 9 J N H : \ P D A T A \ 1 6 7 4 6 7 S h o p p o f f C h u l a V i s t a \ G I S \ M X D \ A r e a o f C h a n g e 0 4 0 2 3 0 1 8 . m x d < U s e r N a m e > Source: Chula VIsta Open GIS Portal 0 500 Feet 676 MOSS STREET° Project Site Area of Consideration Not Subject to Change Limited Industrial Low to Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Mixed Use Residential ^_Potential L Street Station Potential Station 1/4 Mile Radius L STREET MOSS STR E E T I N T E R S T A T E 5 B A Y B O U L E V A R D I N D U S T R I A L B O U L E V A R D C O L O R A D O A V E N U E B R O A D W A Y Exhibit 4 L-Street Station The project would neither require nor preclude the construction of a new MTS trolley station at the intersection of Industrial Boulevard and L Street. Existing residential uses north of L Street may need to be redeveloped with higher density residential or mixed use commercial to create densities and intensities necessary to support an L Street Station. The industrial property along the west side of Industrial Boulevard is not suitable for new residential uses due to the limited vehicular and pedestrian access and proximity to Interstate 5. 676 Moss Street Project The high density residential condominiums at 676 Moss Street are compatible with neighboring uses both with or without an L Street Station. The project would meet SANDAG minimum density requirements (20 du/ac) necessary to support a trolley station. 676 Moss Street is not ideal for Urban Core Residential or Mixed Use Residential because Moss Street is a two lane, Class III Collector with no room for expansion. These uses along Moss Street would necessitate significant right-of-way improvements and street widening to create appropriate vehicle accessibility. Additionally, Urban Core or Mixed Uses could overwhelm the existing low-medium residential developments. Very high density uses (Urban Core) would be better suited along L Street, which has sufficient street width and infrastructure to support densities greater than 27 du/ac. SANDAG A conversation with SANDAG indicated that adding a new trolley station is a highly involved, complex process. MTS may not have capacity for a new station due to high existing ridership levels on the Blue Line. Area of Consideration with L-Street Station PROJECT SITE ° 4/ 2 9 / 2 0 1 9 J N H : \ P D A T A \ 1 6 7 4 6 7 S h o p p o f f C h u l a V i s t a \ G I S \ M X D \ A r e a o f C h a n g e 1 1 x 2 7 V e r t i c a l . m x d < U s e r N a m e > 676 MOSS STREET Source: Chula Vista Open GIS Portal Area of Consideration Project Site ^_Potential L Street Station Potential Station 1/4 Mile Radius Existing Stations Existing Station 1/4 Mile Radius 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Exhibit 5 BAYFRONT PROJECT Bayfront Project The Chula Vista Bayfront project will create: • 275,000 square foot convention center • 1,600 resort-hotel rooms • 200 acres of open space •6,000 construction jobs •2,000 permanent jobs • 475 million dollars in yearly revenue 676 Moss Street Project The 676 Moss Street Condominiums would complement the Bayfront project by adding new residential units close to a major employment area. The portion of the Bayfront closest to the project site is proposed for industrial, recreational and open- space uses. L Street Station The southern quarter of the Bayfront Project is unlikely to create enough jobs to independently support an L Street Station, as the highest intensity retail and employment is based around H Street, which is already served by a trolley station. The addition of a new station would require negotiations between the City of Chula Vista and SANDAG. 4/ 2 9 / 2 0 1 9 J N H : \ P D A T A \ 1 6 7 4 6 7 S h o p p o f f C h u l a V i s t a \ G I S \ M X D \ A r e a o f C h a n g e 0 4 0 2 3 0 1 8 . m x d < U s e r N a m e > Source: Chula VIsta Open GIS Portal 0500 Feet 676 MOSS STREET° Project Site Area of Consideration Industrial Corridor City Limit General Plan Industrial CODE I IL RTP I-5 INDUSTRIAL CORRIDOR Exhibit 6 Citywide Industrial Lands The I-5 Industrial Corridor contains roughly 470 acres of industrial land. 4/ 2 9 / 2 0 1 9 J N H : \ P D A T A \ 1 6 7 4 6 7 S h o p p o f f C h u l a V i s t a \ G I S \ M X D \ A r e a o f C h a n g e 0 4 0 2 3 0 1 8 . m x d < U s e r N a m e > Source: Chula VIsta Open GIS Portal 0 500 Feet 676 MOSS STREET° Project Site Area of Consideration Facilities and Services Commercial Center Park School Existing Stations !(BusStops !(!( !( !( !(!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!( !( !( Exhibit 7 Nearby Public Facilities 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix Appendix B: Map of Traffic Analysis Zones Evaluated 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix B, Page 1 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix Appendix C: Projected Industrial and Office Development by TAZ (SANDAG Series 12) 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix C, Page 1 PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AND OFFICE DEVELOPMENT BY TAZ Industrial Employment Office Employment TAZ 2020 2035 2050 TAZ 2020 2035 2050 4099 - - - 4099 - - - 4103 - - - 4103 - - - 4140 - - - 4140 - - - 4141 1 1 1 4141 - - - 4148 - - - 4148 - - - 4167 1 1 16 4167 4 6 70 4171 9 9 9 4171 2 2 2 4183 1 1 1 4183 93 93 93 4191 5 5 5 4191 16 16 16 4193 3 3 3 4193 11 11 11 4196 3 3 3 4196 17 17 17 4204 2 2 2 4204 6 6 6 4206 4 4 4 4206 137 137 137 4207 - - - 4207 - 16 16 4208 3 3 3 4208 88 88 88 4210 1 1 1 4210 1 1 1 4211 - - - 4211 1 1 1 4212 - - - 4212 18 18 18 4213 3 3 3 4213 5 5 5 4214 1 1 1 4214 20 20 20 4216 - - - 4216 5 5 5 4219 12 12 12 4219 165 215 215 4224 7 7 7 4224 10 10 10 4225 - - - 4225 4 4 4 4226 - - - 4226 18 18 18 4227 295 291 283 4227 90 90 92 4228 7 7 14 4228 1 1 18 4229 1 1 1 4229 12 12 12 4231 3 3 3 4231 14 14 14 4232 1 1 1 4232 1 1 1 4233 9 31 42 4233 27 97 116 4234 17 15 13 4234 184 200 206 4235 1,020 1,012 999 4235 442 456 473 4236 261 259 354 4236 219 219 510 4237 - - - 4237 28 28 28 4240 - - - 4240 1 1 1 4241 11 11 11 4241 16 16 16 4242 3 6 6 4242 23 30 30 4243 - - - 4243 - - - 4244 - - - 4244 58 58 61 4245 - - 9 4245 149 149 161 4246 94 96 135 4246 125 137 305 4247 5 5 5 4247 27 27 27 4248 7 7 7 4248 14 14 14 4249 - - - 4249 - - - 4250 - 13 16 4250 12 28 34 4251 - - - 4251 1 1 1 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix C, Page 2 Industrial Employment Office Employment TAZ 2020 2035 2050 TAZ 2020 2035 2050 4253 3 3 3 4253 8 8 8 4254 6 6 6 4254 30 30 30 4255 17 30 30 4255 138 160 160 4256 7 7 7 4256 10 10 10 4259 10 10 10 4259 16 16 16 4260 - - - 4260 48 59 59 4261 1 3 3 4261 93 106 106 4262 3 3 3 4262 6 6 6 4263 25 25 25 4263 11 27 27 4264 - - 11 4264 - - 22 4265 - - - 4265 1 1 1 4266 - - - 4266 20 20 20 4267 9 9 9 4267 61 67 67 4268 13 15 15 4268 27 35 35 4270 - - - 4270 3 3 3 4271 1 1 1 4271 10 10 10 4272 - - - 4272 30 30 30 4273 - - - 4273 - - - 4275 1 1 1 4275 1 41 41 4276 - - - 4276 31 39 39 4277 77 84 84 4277 370 382 382 4278 9 9 6 4278 18 18 18 4279 2 2 2 4279 3 3 3 4280 - 8 8 4280 - 24 24 4281 - - - 4281 18 18 18 4282 - 25 25 4282 616 648 648 4284 7 7 7 4284 1 1 1 4285 1 1 1 4285 11 11 11 4286 - - - 4286 - - - 4287 7 8 8 4287 4 17 17 4289 - - 18 4289 - - 21 4290 1 1 1 4290 2 2 2 4291 - - - 4291 9 9 9 4293 2 2 2 4293 - - - 4295 29 29 29 4295 161 161 161 4296 - - - 4296 - 75 75 4297 8 8 8 4297 134 134 134 4298 - - - 4298 - - - 4299 78 78 105 4299 18 18 65 4300 - - - 4300 237 237 237 4301 - - - 4301 1 1 1 4302 - - - 4302 3 3 3 4304 8 8 8 4304 22 22 22 4305 3 3 3 4305 8 8 8 4306 - - - 4306 12 39 39 4307 70 67 64 4307 292 297 297 4308 37 62 62 4308 288 327 327 4309 2 2 2 4309 2 2 2 4310 42 42 65 4310 6 6 45 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix C, Page 3 Industrial Employment Office Employment TAZ 2020 2035 2050 TAZ 2020 2035 2050 4311 2 2 2 4311 7 7 7 4312 9 9 9 4312 58 58 58 4313 - - - 4313 8 8 8 4314 1 1 1 4314 3 3 3 4315 14 19 19 4315 87 97 100 4316 - - - 4316 - - - 4317 1,802 1,809 1,746 4317 99 169 187 4318 - - - 4318 2 2 2 4319 4 4 4 4319 6 6 6 4320 1 1 1 4320 6 6 6 4321 2 2 17 4321 77 103 126 4322 45 50 50 4322 146 161 161 4323 - - 31 4323 - - 102 4324 3 3 3 4324 20 20 20 4325 15 15 15 4325 5 5 5 4326 79 77 74 4326 - - - 4327 - - - 4327 4 4 4 4328 - - - 4328 2 2 2 4330 - - - 4330 - - - 4331 14 14 14 4331 62 68 68 4332 - - - 4332 32 62 62 4333 - - - 4333 5 5 5 4334 - - - 4334 - - - 4335 - - - 4335 - - - 4336 - - - 4336 - - - 4337 - - - 4337 - 333 333 4338 - - 2 4338 - - 19 4339 3 3 220 4339 125 128 560 4340 6 6 6 4340 26 26 26 4341 - - - 4341 1 1 1 4342 3 3 3 4342 - - - 4343 1 1 1 4343 8 8 8 4344 5 5 5 4344 119 119 119 4345 11 11 11 4345 69 69 69 4346 13 14 14 4346 364 371 371 4347 - 38 44 4347 11 513 538 4348 - - - 4348 - - - 4349 22 22 22 4349 59 59 59 4350 - - - 4350 - - - 4351 - - - 4351 - - - 4352 - - - 4352 6 6 6 4353 2 2 2 4353 2 2 2 4354 - - - 4354 14 14 14 4355 - - - 4355 8 8 8 4356 64 64 64 4356 130 130 130 4357 1 1 1 4357 2 2 2 4358 125 124 118 4358 8 8 8 4359 2 2 2 4359 2 2 2 4360 - - - 4360 4 4 4 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix C, Page 4 Industrial Employment Office Employment TAZ 2020 2035 2050 TAZ 2020 2035 2050 4361 - - - 4361 1 1 1 4363 - - - 4363 - - - 4364 - - - 4364 - - - 4365 - - - 4365 3 3 3 4366 - - - 4366 4 4 4 4367 187 195 194 4367 98 118 118 4368 - - - 4368 33 33 33 4369 6 6 45 4369 55 55 170 4370 14 14 14 4370 28 28 28 4371 4 4 4 4371 17 17 17 4372 - - 282 4372 - 21 1,028 4373 3 3 3 4373 4 4 4 4374 1 1 1 4374 18 18 18 4375 - - - 4375 13 13 13 4376 37 37 37 4376 132 132 132 4377 - 1 1 4377 6 17 17 4378 11 15 16 4378 98 113 118 4379 26 26 26 4379 24 24 24 4380 - - - 4380 - - - 4381 - - - 4381 - - - 4382 - - - 4382 - - - 4383 - - - 4383 2 2 2 4384 - - - 4384 - - - 4385 - - - 4385 - - - 4387 - - - 4387 205 205 205 4389 1 1 1 4389 2 2 2 4390 3 3 3 4390 2 2 2 4391 4 4 4 4391 2 2 2 4392 12 30 30 4392 38 368 368 4393 19 19 19 4393 56 56 56 4394 - 9 9 4394 6 21 21 4395 - - - 4395 18 18 18 4396 - - - 4396 - - - 4397 27 27 27 4397 89 89 89 4398 - - - 4398 - 3 3 4399 - - - 4399 5 5 5 4400 1 1 1 4400 - - - 4401 1 1 1 4401 50 50 50 4402 277 274 266 4402 799 799 799 4403 - - - 4403 21 21 21 4404 67 67 67 4404 51 51 51 4405 - - - 4405 10 10 10 4406 2 2 2 4406 2 2 2 4407 2 3 3 4407 30 43 43 4408 89 140 140 4408 271 473 473 4409 - - - 4409 6 6 6 4410 - - - 4410 - - - 4411 - - - 4411 4 4 4 4412 154 168 168 4412 526 580 580 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix C, Page 5 Industrial Employment Office Employment TAZ 2020 2035 2050 TAZ 2020 2035 2050 4413 13 13 13 4413 8 8 8 4414 - - - 4414 8 8 8 4416 182 340 591 4416 610 1,821 2,645 4417 34 32 29 4417 59 59 59 4418 - - - 4418 - - - 4419 4 96 95 4419 86 294 294 4420 4 4 4 4420 5 5 5 4421 - - - 4421 7 7 7 4423 - - - 4423 2 2 2 4424 - - - 4424 13 13 13 4425 13 13 13 4425 139 139 139 4426 2 2 2 4426 - - - 4427 - - - 4427 - - - 4428 160 160 160 4428 557 557 557 4429 3 38 38 4429 35 209 209 4430 - - - 4430 127 127 127 4431 - - - 4431 1 2 2 4432 - 2 2 4432 - 11 11 4433 1 1 1 4433 62 62 62 4434 - - - 4434 28 28 28 4435 2 2 2 4435 - - - 4436 - 85 85 4436 12 772 772 4438 - - - 4438 52 52 52 4439 - 114 311 4439 - 1,167 1,883 4440 - - - 4440 - - - 4441 - - - 4441 4 4 4 4442 3 3 4 4442 25 25 31 4443 23 23 23 4443 30 30 30 4444 - - - 4444 23 23 23 4445 5 5 5 4445 14 14 14 4446 1 1 1 4446 5 5 5 4447 - - - 4447 1 1 1 4448 1 1 1 4448 5 14 14 4449 2 2 2 4449 4 4 4 4450 2 2 2 4450 1 1 1 4451 7 7 7 4451 16 16 16 4452 4 4 4 4452 16 16 16 4453 23 23 23 4453 12 12 12 4454 2 2 2 4454 - - - 4455 - - - 4455 - - - 4456 10 10 10 4456 27 27 27 4457 15 15 15 4457 26 27 27 4458 - - - 4458 12 12 12 4459 232 228 221 4459 167 167 167 4460 2 2 3 4460 33 33 40 4461 - - - 4461 - - - 4462 1 1 14 4462 3 3 27 4463 2 2 2 4463 - - - 4464 - - - 4464 - - - 676 Moss Street – General Plan Amendment, Rezone, Site Development Plan, Tentative Map Industrial Lands and Area of Change Analysis Appendix C, Page 6 Industrial Employment Office Employment TAZ 2020 2035 2050 TAZ 2020 2035 2050 4465 - - - 4465 3 3 3 4466 275 272 266 4466 6 6 6 4468 47 47 47 4468 11 11 11 4469 385 382 376 4469 43 44 44 4470 474 475 465 4470 327 352 352 4471 87 87 88 4471 13 13 16 4472 438 584 577 4472 10 785 785 4474 475 469 531 4474 89 213 325 4476 129 169 175 4476 21 80 93 4477 - - - 4477 - - - 4479 131 131 131 4479 32 32 32 4480 59 56 51 4480 32 33 33 4482 189 187 222 4482 3 4 64 4483 24 45 45 4483 218 307 307 4485 2 2 2 4485 8 19 19 4486 42 40 37 4486 1 2 2 4487 7 7 7 4487 30 30 30 4489 7 32 32 4489 27 520 520 8,990 9,944 11,204 12,270 19,632 23,880