HomeMy WebLinkAbout15. Fiscal Impact AnalaysisCITY OF CH ULA VISTA
Fiscal Impact Analysis Report
OTAY RANCH FREEWAY
PREPARED FOR BALDWIN & SONS
SEPTEMBER 12, 2018 (ORIGINAL)
REVISED REPORT DATED
FEBRUARY 27, 2019
Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary 1
2 Recommendation 2
3 Fiscal Impact Analysis FC-2 3
4 Currently Approved FC-2 Assumptions 4
5 Proposed FC-2 Amended Plan Assumptions 5
6 Findings 6
Appendices A
Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Page | 1
Fiscal Impact Analysis Report
For City of Chula Vista
Executive Summary
The Freeway Commercial Sectional Planning Area (SPA) in Otay Ranch consists of approximately 124 acres within two
distinct districts, southern and northern. The southern, approximately 86-acre district is the FC-1 site operating as the Otay
Ranch Town Center Shopping Center. The northern, approximately 38-acre district is the FC-2 site (the “Project”) that is the
subject of this Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA). The developer has proposed a SPA Plan Amendment to add three hundred
multifamily residential units to the Project within the approximately 10.4 acre portion east of Town Center Drive (the “Proposed
Amended Plan”). This FIA Report provides information related to the Proposed Amended Plan and anticipated fiscal impacts
to the City’s General Fund, as compared to the currently approved development plan (the “Approved Plan”). The developer’s
existing entitlements for FC-2 are a mix of development as follows:
290 Multi-Family Attached units – For Sale Townhomes
310 Multi-Family Attached units – Rental Apartments
2 Hotels – totaling 300 rooms (148 and 152)
15,000 SF ground floor commercial in Mixed Use format
Two (2) acre park
The scope of this review was analyzing the fiscal impacts projected to result from changing the development plan for FC-2
from the Approved Plan to the Proposed Amended Plan, which includes the addition of 300 multifamily attached (for rent)
apartment units.
As with the Approved Plan, the Proposed Amended Plan is projected to generate a positive net fiscal impact to the City’s
General Fund. In Year 10 the project is expected to generate a net positive impact of $1,432,418. While the overall Project
revenues are increasing, expenditures are increasing more. As a result, the analysis indicates a decrease in net positive
fiscal impacts of approximately $95,931 annually over 10 years for the Proposed Amended Plan. Please note, the original
model used as the basis of the previously approved FIA by HR&A Advisors dated March 2015 did not reflect all public safety
and City overhead costs reflected in the current model. A comparison of the Approved Plan and the Proposed Amended Plan
using the new City model more accurately reflects the fiscal impact of the additional 300 dwelling units.
The net impact of the proposed amended plan for the Freeway FC-2 development is positive, the following cautions
are provided from the new model:
Parcel 1 (FC-1) Otay Ranch Town Center (“Center”) – Since its opening in 2006, several retail stores at the Center
have closed, including Aeropostale, American Eagle Outfitters, Anthropologie, Coach, Guess, Kay Jewelers, REI,
and Zales (not intended to be an all-inclusive list). The shift of FC-2’s entitlements to additional residential units,
hotels, and reductions in retail plans appears to support a positive transition for the not only FC-2 site but also
should provide foot traffic and support to the Center in FC-1.
Overall, the Proposed Amended Plan is anticipated to result in a net positive fiscal impact of $11,845,954 over the
next 10 years. The cumulative positive net fiscal impact reflects a reduction of $959,308 from the Approved Plan
over 10 years due to the increased service demand from the new residential units.
Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Page | 2
Fiscal Impact Analysis Report
For City of Chula Vista
Recommendation
The Proposed Amended Plan increasing the authorized residential land uses from 600 to 900 multifamily units has a net
positive projected impact to the City’s General Fund and should also help increase foot traffic at the adjacent Otay Ranch
Town Center.
Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Page | 3
Fiscal Impact Analysis
For City of Chula Vista
Fiscal Impact Analysis FC-2
Below is a summary of the Net Revenues determined using the new fiscal impact model and a comparison to the approved
project with the original 600 multi-family residential units, 300 room hotels, and 15,000 square feet of commercial and the
proposed changes to FC-2. The net effect is an average decrease in general fund revenues of approximately $95,931 per
year over 10 years.
Approved FC2 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 10 Cumulative Average
Revenues 653,432$ 756,616$ 1,143,972$ 1,829,669$ 2,094,614$ 2,304,022$ 17,571,885$ 1,757,188$
Expenditures 8,298$ 127,229$ 162,911$ 418,018$ 659,261$ 688,463$ 4,766,623$ 476,662$
Projected Net 645,133$ 629,387$ 981,061$ 1,411,651$ 1,435,353$ 1,615,559$ 12,805,261$ 1,280,526$
10 Year Analysis
Net Revenues Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 10 Cumulative Average
Approved FC2 645,133$ 629,387$ 981,061$ 1,411,651$ 1,435,353$ 1,615,559$ 12,805,261$ 1,280,526$
Proposed FC2 645,133$ 658,148$ 1,005,450$ 1,320,195$ 1,311,647$ 1,432,418$ 11,845,954$ 1,184,595$
Net Change -$ 28,761$ 24,390$ (91,456)$ (123,706)$ (183,140)$ (959,308)$ (95,931)$
10 Year Analysis
Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Page | 4
Fiscal Impact Analysis
For City of Chula Vista
Currently Approved FC-2 Assumptions
The current developer/owner of the FC-2 site has a transit supportive mixed-use project that adds up to 600 multifamily
residential units, a minimum of 15,000 square feet of commercial retail in mixed-use format, a new 2-acre urban park and two
hotels with a combined minimum of 300 rooms.
SCG verified assessed values by land use type for all development, including the residential component, was in line
with the market. The assessed value per unit as supplied by the developer and used for this study is $325,000 and
$246,050 per unit for townhomes and apartments, respectively. The assessed value for the hotels utilized was
$146,067 per door.
300 hotel rooms – New transient occupancy tax revenues are projected to grow to $1.4 million annually, which is
critical in replacing sales tax dollars lost due to the commercial retail square footage reductions previously approved
for FC-2. The first hotel opened in October 2017 and the second is set to open late 2020.
600 multifamily attached units (for sale and rental apartments) - envisioned to include high density residential units in
the mixed-use land use category with a density range of 28 to 45 units per acre.
Assumed $270 per square foot for on-site retail sales, as provided by developer.
Included Vehicle License Fee (VLF) revenues as Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF (per capita basis).
Multifamily persons per dwelling unit factor is 2.6.
Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Page | 5
Fiscal Impact Analysis
For City of Chula Vista
Proposed FC-2 Amended Plan Assumptions
The developer has approached the City requesting entitlement for an additional 300 multifamily residential units, bringing the
total approved residential units for the Project to 900. The proposed changes, if approved, are anticipated to generate
sufficient revenue to offset the cost of providing municipal services to the FC-2 site.
SCG verified assessed values by land use type for all development, including the residential component, was in line
with the market. The assessed value per unit as supplied by the developer and used for this study is $246,050 per
unit for apartments.
900 multifamily attached units (for sale and rental apartments) - envisioned to include high density residential units in
the mixed-use land use category with a density range of 28 to 45 units per acre.
Included VLF revenues as Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF (per capita basis).
Multifamily persons per dwelling unit factor is 2.6.
Proposed FC2 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 10 Cumulative Average
Revenues 653,432$ 785,376$ 1,368,936$ 2,041,727$ 2,278,011$ 2,439,411$ 18,997,264$ 1,899,726$
Expenditures 8,298$ 127,229$ 363,486$ 721,532$ 966,365$ 1,006,993$ 7,151,311$ 715,131$
Net (projected)645,133$ 658,148$ 1,005,450$ 1,320,195$ 1,311,647$ 1,432,418$ 11,845,954$ 1,184,595$
10 Year Analysis
Otay Ranch Freeway Commercial Page | 6
Fiscal Impact Analysis
For City of Chula Vista
Findings
The projected net fiscal impact of the Project to the City’s General Fund under both the Approved Plan and the Proposed
Amended Plan is positive; however, the Proposed Amended Plan generates reduced positive fiscal impacts. The following
cautions are provided from the new model:
The Parcel 1 (FC-1) Otay Ranch Town Center (“Center”) – Since its opening in 2006, several retail stores have
closed, including, Aeropostale, American Eagle Outfitters, Anthropologie, Coach, Guess, Kay Jewelers, REI, and
Zales (not intended to be an all-inclusive list). The shift of FC-2’s entitlements to additional residential units (including
the additional 300 apartment units in this analysis), hotels, and reductions in retail plans appear to support a positive
transition for the not only FC-2 area but also should provide foot traffic and support to the Center in FC-1.
The proposed project will be building additional high-density residential units that should provide affordable housing
opportunities.
This report is based upon future plans that have not yet been constructed, as such, the projections are estimates only
and subject to market and development risk. However, given that Transient Occupancy Taxes are key fiscal revenues,
the timing and number of hotel rooms that are successful developed will impact the City net fiscal impacts.
The Proposed Amended Plan is projected to generate increased revenues as compared with the Approved Plan;
however, expenditures are projected to increase more than revenues due to the service demands from the increased
residential units. In Year 10, the Project is expected to generate $1,432,418 in net positive fiscal impacts to the City’s
General Fund. The net projected General Fund fiscal impact projected to result from the proposed amendment
represents an average annual decrease of approximately $95,931 in net positive fiscal impacts over 10 years.
The following attachments include the conceptual site plan, location of the SPA boundary, and the fiscal impact analysis,
including the original, amended revenues, and expenditures.
APPENDICES
<<A-1>>
A-1
Freeway Commercial Sectional Planning Area, Otay Ranch
A-2
ORIGINAL - CONCEPTUAL SITE PLAN ‐FC2
$-
REVISED - CONCEPTUAL SITE PLAN ‐FC2
c
$
ORIGINAL FIA
HR&A Model
Table A-19
Net Fiscal Impacts
FC2 Amendment
CPI ( San Diego Area)1 265.25
242.27
Freeway Commercial Amendment
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
2015 Dollar Inflation Factor 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095
Total Expenditures $1,181,099 $1,181,099 $1,366,202 $1,631,904 $1,968,914 $2,259,247 $2,259,247 $2,259,247 $2,259,247 $2,259,247 $2,259,247
Total Revenues $2,196,150 $2,371,333 $3,070,167 $3,609,828 $3,902,236 $4,547,213 $4,830,694 $4,780,735 $4,785,342 $4,790,806 $4,797,091
Net Fiscal Impacts (2015 Dollars) $1,015,051 $1,190,234 $1,703,965 $1,977,925 $1,933,322 $2,287,966 $2,571,447 $2,521,488 $2,526,095 $2,531,559 $2,537,844
1Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2015 Approximated using mid-2014 San Diego CPI
Source: HR&A Advisors
A-5
PROPOSED FC-2
New City Model
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Residential - Townhomes - - 234 494 754 754 754 754 754 754
Residential - Apartments - 260 598 1,248 1,586 1,586 1,586 1,586 1,586 1,586
Subtotal (Per Capita) - 260 832 1,742 2,340 2,340 2,340 2,340 2,340 2,340
Employment Population 10 13 42 87 117 117 117 117 117 117
Totals 10 273 874 1,829 2,457 2,457 2,457 2,457 2,457 2,457
Residential - Townhomes - - 90 190 290 290 290 290 290 290
Residential - Apartments - 100 230 480 610 610 610 610 610 610
Totals - 100 320 670 900 900 900 900 900 900
Hotel 1 - # rooms 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148
Hotel 2 - # rooms - - 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152
Totals 148 148 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* 150.26$ 152.55$ 154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$
Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* 150.26$ 152.55$ 154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$
Average Hotel Occupancy* 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1%
Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1%
Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%10% 10% 10% 10%
Absorption Rate 100% 100% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV $27,455 $72,440 $99,440 $142,200 $166,669 $170,003 $173,403 $176,871 $180,408 $184,016
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita $0 $33,373 $108,591 $231,253 $315,776 $321,077 $326,454 $331,902 $337,419 $342,242
Sales and Use Tax ‐ Project Specific Separate Analysis $0 $0 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita $158 $4,288 $17,356 $36,493 $49,137 $49,333 $49,522 $49,705 $49,883 $50,133
Transient Occupancy Tax - Project On-Site $625,819 $635,349 $980,612 $1,327,094 $1,347,001 $1,367,206 $1,387,714 $1,408,530 $1,429,658 $1,451,103
Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Per Capita $0 $20,813 $67,413 $142,917 $194,446 $197,000 $199,636 $202,428 $205,214 $208,147
Franchise Fees Per Capita $0 $11,380 $36,383 $76,171 $102,314 $102,308 $102,302 $102,377 $102,449 $102,597
Other Taxes Per Capita $0 $1,185 $3,654 $7,481 $9,784 $9,618 $9,453 $9,289 $9,045 $8,881
Subtotal Tax Revenues $653,432 $778,828 $1,348,075 $1,998,237 $2,219,754 $2,251,173 $2,283,112 $2,315,729 $2,348,702 $2,381,746
Other Revenues Per Capita $0 $1,564 $5,009 $10,190 $13,623 $13,323 $13,265 $12,980 $13,004 $12,732
Licenses and Permits Per Capita $0 $1,302 $4,184 $8,795 $11,860 $11,904 $11,946 $11,987 $12,027 $12,066
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita $0 $1,030 $3,300 $6,915 $9,295 $9,381 $9,386 $9,468 $9,471 $9,549
Use of Money & Property Per Capita $0 $2,295 $7,278 $15,103 $20,193 $20,102 $19,936 $19,852 $19,695 $19,616
Charges for Services No Forecast $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Intergovernmental Per Capita $0 $1,920 $6,099 $12,677 $16,908 $16,791 $16,678 $16,568 $16,462 $16,433
Subtotal Other Revenues $0 $6,548 $20,861 $43,490 $58,257 $58,178 $57,946 $57,875 $57,655 $57,664
Total General Fund Revenues $653,432 $785,376 $1,368,936 $2,041,727 $2,278,011 $2,309,351 $2,341,058 $2,373,604 $2,406,358 $2,439,411
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita $108 $3,651 $12,218 $26,453 $37,642 $39,160 $40,480 $41,987 $42,992 $42,774
Community Development (20%)Per Capita $22 $572 $1,898 $4,107 $5,805 $6,011 $6,149 $6,303 $6,421 $6,420
Public Works/Engineering Per Capita $199 $2,073 $8,366 $18,101 $25,506 $27,230 $27,857 $28,551 $29,087 $29,083
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$ $358 $7,355 $7,502 $7,652 $7,805 $7,962 $8,121 $8,283 $8,449 $8,618
Building Management System 4.10 $55 $1,137 $1,159 $1,183 $1,206 $1,230 $1,255 $1,280 $1,306 $1,332
Parks Management System 15.68 $212 $4,351 $4,438 $4,527 $4,617 $4,710 $4,804 $4,900 $4,998 $5,098
Open Space Management System 6.72 $91 $1,865 $1,902 $1,940 $1,979 $2,018 $2,059 $2,100 $2,142 $2,185
Fleet Management System 3.73 $50 $1,036 $1,057 $1,078 $1,099 $1,121 $1,144 $1,167 $1,190 $1,214
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 $191 $3,937 $4,015 $4,096 $4,178 $4,261 $4,346 $4,433 $4,522 $4,612
General Govt Management System 0.65 $9 $181 $185 $189 $192 $196 $200 $204 $208 $212
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 $91 $1,865 $1,902 $1,940 $1,979 $2,018 $2,059 $2,100 $2,142 $2,185
78.28$ $1,057 $21,726 $22,161 $22,604 $23,056 $23,517 $23,988 $24,467 $24,957 $25,456
Community Services Per Capita $231 $6,051 $19,885 $43,013 $60,351 $61,827 $63,249 $64,825 $66,044 $66,033
Public Safety:
Police Services Per Capita $2,073 $58,521 $179,087 $376,749 $508,678 $510,760 $512,989 $515,379 $517,895 $520,193
Police Services Separate Analysis $2,681 $2,857 $15,298 $15,864 $16,464 $17,071 $17,706 $18,375 $19,070 $19,790
Fire Services Per Capita $1,003 $27,986 $89,779 $188,477 $253,933 $254,785 $255,707 $256,706 $257,765 $258,908
Fire Services Separate Analysis $812 $844 $5,108 $5,215 $5,534 $5,654 $5,777 $5,902 $6,029 $6,159
Animal Control Services Per Capita $112 $2,947 $9,685 $20,950 $29,395 $30,143 $30,829 $31,588 $32,177 $32,176
Total Public Safety $6,682 $93,155 $298,957 $607,255 $814,004 $818,413 $823,007 $827,950 $832,935 $837,226
Total General Fund Expenditures $8,298 $127,229 $363,486 $721,532 $966,365 $976,160 $984,730 $994,083 $1,002,436 $1,006,993
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$645,133 $658,148 $1,005,450 $1,320,195 $1,311,647 $1,333,191 $1,356,328 $1,379,521 $1,403,922 $1,432,418
Population
Number of Homes
Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific)
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Multi‐Family Residential ‐ Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units 290 - - 90 190 290 290 290 290 290 290
Total Cumulative Residents 2.60 - - 234 494 754 754 754 754 754 754
Percentage Complete 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Multi‐Family Attached Apartments
Total Cumulative MFR Units 610 - 100 230 480 610 610 610 610 610 610
Total Cumulative Residents 2.60 - 260 598 1,248 1,586 1,586 1,586 1,586 1,586 1,586
Percentage Complete 0% 16% 38% 79% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values $73,815,000 $0 $12,100,820 $27,831,885 $58,083,934 $73,815,000 $73,815,000 $73,815,000 $73,815,000 $73,815,000 $73,815,000
Total Cumulative Residents ‐ 260 832 1,742 2,340 2,340 2,340 2,340 2,340 2,340
FC 2 Parcel ‐ Mixed Use Commercial
Percentage Complete 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values 3,606,450$ -$ -$ 3,606,450$ 3,606,450$ 3,606,450$ 3,606,450$ 3,606,450$ 3,606,450$ 3,606,450$ 3,606,450$
Hotel
Percentage Complete 49% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values 43,820,100$ 21,617,916$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 21,617,916$ 55,920,920$ 75,258,435$ 105,510,484$ 121,241,550$ 121,241,550$ 121,241,550$ 121,241,550$ 121,241,550$ 121,241,550$
Inflation Factor 2.00% 100.00% 102.00% 104.04% 106.12% 108.24% 110.41%112.62% 114.87% 117.17% 119.51%
Total AV - Inflated $21,617,916 $57,039,338 $78,298,876 $111,968,570 $131,235,753 $133,860,468 $136,537,677 $139,268,431 $142,053,799 $144,894,875
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) $21,617,916 $57,039,338 $78,298,876 $111,968,570 $131,235,753 $133,860,468 $136,537,677 $139,268,431 $142,053,799 $144,894,875
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cumulative Residential AV ‐ Inflated $21,617,916 $57,039,338 $78,298,876 $111,968,570 $131,235,753 $133,860,468 $136,537,677 $139,268,431 $142,053,799 $144,894,875
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem 1.00% 216,179$ 570,393$ 782,989$ 1,119,686$ 1,312,358$ 1,338,605$ 1,365,377$ 1,392,684$ 1,420,538$ 1,448,949$
Total AV Tax Due to City 12.70% $27,455 $72,440 $99,440 $142,200 $166,669 $170,003 $173,403 $176,871 $180,408 $184,016
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Sales Tax Analysis ‐ On‐Site Retail
Total (Square Feet)
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) - - 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Totals - - 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet)Absorption
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 90% - - 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500
Occupied Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet) Occupancy Rate
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 95% - - 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825
Taxable Sales Projected (Estimate) Sales PSF
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 270.00$ - - 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750
Total Taxable Retail Sales Estimated -$ -$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$
Annual Sales Taxes to the City
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 1.00% - - 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628
Total Annual Sales Taxes to the City ‐$ ‐$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
POPULATION 272,736 277,555 282,375 287,195 292,015 296,835 301,655 306,475 311,295 316,115
CHANGE IN POPULATION 4,819 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820
2.8 # of DU 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721
UTURE SFR 4,854 SFR 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306
UTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415
27,321
- COMMERCIAL (ACRES) - FC2 - - 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
- HOTEL (Industrial) (ACRES) 3.30 3.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30
EXISTING ACRES
POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 3,768.38$ 3,768.38$ 4,016.02$ 3,964.93$ 4,111.71$ 4,267.17$ 4,424.58$ 4,589.04$ 4,762.56$ 4,942.53$ 5,129.23$
POLICE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 812.45$ 812.45$ 865.84$ 854.83$ 886.47$ 919.99$ 953.93$ 989.38$ 1,026.79$ 1,065.59$ 1,105.85$
POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 2,681$ 2,857$ 15,298$ 15,864$ 16,464$ 17,071$ 17,706$ 18,375$ 19,070$ 19,790$
EXISTING ACRES
FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,234.54$ 1,234.54$ 1,283.28$ 1,360.11$ 1,388.48$ 1,473.53$ 1,505.58$ 1,538.17$ 1,571.53$ 1,605.23$ 1,640.06$
FIRE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 246.05$ 246.05$ 255.76$ 271.08$ 276.73$ 293.68$ 300.07$ 306.57$ 313.21$ 319.93$ 326.87$
FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 812$ 844$ 5,108$ 5,215$ 5,534$ 5,654$ 5,777$ 5,902$ 6,029$ 6,159$
POPULATION PER DU
FACTOR
Description 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
POLICE COSTS ‐ BASE MODEL 56,965,945 59,949,430 58,327,199 59,606,056 60,916,106 62,175,703 63,461,731 64,774,754 66,115,351 67,437,658
Police Officer Funding (5/yr)‐ 760,000 1,610,000 2,550,000 3,590,000 4,710,000 5,910,000 7,220,000 8,600,000 10,100,000
Updated POLICE COSTS 56,965,945 60,709,430 59,937,199 62,156,056 64,506,106 66,885,703 69,371,731 71,994,754 74,715,351 77,537,658
COMMERCIAL
% OF CALL VOLUME 6.19%3,527,202 3,758,991 3,711,176 3,848,562 3,994,072 4,141,411 4,295,341 4,457,752 4,626,206 4,800,956
ACRES 936
RATE PER ACRE 3,768.38 4,016.02 3,964.93 4,111.71 4,267.17 4,424.58 4,589.04 4,762.56 4,942.53 5,129.23
INDUSTRIAL
% OF CALL VOLUME 1.19%677,583.83 722,110.87 712,925.54 739,317.83 767,270.60 795,574.82 825,144.97 856,344.63 888,704.90 922,274.95
ACRES 834
RATE PER ACRE 812.45 865.84 854.83 886.47 919.99 953.93 989.38 1,026.79 1,065.59 1,105.85
FIRE COSTS ‐ BASE MODEL 27,580,234 28,669,066 29,240,512 29,819,340 30,409,445 31,015,435 31,633,479 32,263,817 32,906,691 33,564,824
4.0 Truck Staffing for Millenia ‐ ‐ 985,000 1,040,000 2,190,000 2,300,000 2,410,000 2,525,000 2,635,000 2,755,000
Fire Station Supplies and Services ‐ ‐ 160,000 160,000 320,000 320,000 320,000 320,000 320,000 320,000
Updated Fire Costs 27,580,234 28,669,066 30,385,512 31,019,340 32,919,445 33,635,435 34,363,479 35,108,817 35,861,691 36,639,824
COMMERCIAL
% OF CALL VOLUME 4.19%1,155,529 1,201,147 1,273,061 1,299,617 1,379,225 1,409,223 1,439,726 1,470,954 1,502,497 1,535,098
ACRES 936
COMMERCIAL RATE PER ACRE 0.744%1,234.54 1,283.28 1,360.11 1,388.48 1,473.53 1,505.58 1,538.17 1,571.53 1,605.23 1,640.06
INDUSTRIAL
% OF CALL VOLUME 0.74% 205,205.95 213,307.22 226,078.13 230,794.02 244,931.42 250,258.62 255,675.51 261,221.06 266,822.69 272,612.26
ACRES 834
RATE PER ACRE 246.05 255.76 271.08 276.73 293.68 300.07 306.57 313.21 319.93 326.87
Table ‐ Public Safety Costs by Land Use
Dwelling Type
Call Volume (CV)
(1)
Existing EDUs
(2)
Existing CV
/ DU
Future EDUs
(3)
Projected
Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS
COST PER
EDU
56,965,945$
Single Family Units 123,906,773 36,084 3,434 4,854 16,667,871 14.957%50.55% 28,797,864$ 798$
Multi-Family Units 103,105,371 27,814 3,707 22,467 83,283,023 74.735%42.07% 23,963,294$ 862$
Land Use
Call Volume (CV)
(1)
Existing Acres
(2)
Existing CV
/ Acre
Future Acres
(3)
Projected
Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS
COST PER
ACRE
Commercial Acres 15,176,274 936 16,214 518 8,405,596 7.543%6.19% 3,527,202$ 3,768$
Industrial Acres 2,915,398 834 3,496 882 3,081,488 2.765%1.19%677,584$ 812$
Citywide Total 245,103,815
Dwelling Type
Calls for Service
(CFS) (1)
Existing EDUs
(2)
Existing
CFS / DU
Future EDUs
(3)
Projected
Future CFS Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS
COST PER
EDU
$ 27,580,234
Single Family Units 3,893 36084 0.10789218 4854 523.708639 21.230%61.137% 16,861,629$ 467.29$
Multi-Family Units 2,161 27814 0.07768169 22466.6667 1745.248693 70.749%33.930% 9,357,870$ 336.44$
6,054
Land Use
Call Volume (CV)
(1)
Existing Acres
(2)
Existing CV
/ Acre
Future Acres
(3)
Projected
Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS
COST PER
ACRE
Commercial Acres 267 936 0.28504274 518.417 147.7709996 5.990%4.190% 1,155,529$ 1,234.54$
Industrial Acres 47 834 0.05681055 881.513 50.07923974 2.030%0.744%205,206$ 246.05$
314
6,368
Police Calls for Service by Land Use
Fire Calls for Service by Land Use
CITY OF CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA
SELECTED ANALYSIS OF REVENUES
PER CAPITA ASSUMPTIONS TABLE
HOUSEHOLD
POPULATION EMPLOYEES
EMPLOYMENT
RESIDENT EQUIVALENT
(.05)
TOTAL
POPULATION BASE
2012 244,408 37,218 1,860 246,268
2013 249,110 37,934 1,900 251,010
2014 253,812 38,650 1,930 255,742
2015 258,514 39,366 1,970 260,484
2016 263,216 40,082 2,000 265,216
2017*267,917 40,798 2,040 269,957
2018 272,736 41,532 2,080 274,816
2019 277,555 42,266 2,110 279,665
2020 282,375 43,000 2,150 284,525
2021 287,195 43,734 2,190 289,385
2022 292,015 44,468 2,220 294,235
2023 296,835 45,201 2,260 299,095
2024 301,655 45,935 2,300 303,955
2025 306,475 46,669 2,330 308,805
2026 311,295 47,403 2,370 313,665
2027 316,115 48,137 2,410 318,525
* As of 01/01/2017 Per State of California Department of Finance, Chula
Vista Population is 267,917.
ORIGINAL FC-2
New City Model
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Residential - Townhomes - - 234 494 754 754 754 754 754 754
Residential - Apartments - 260 78 468 806 806 806 806 806 806
Subtotal (Per Capita) - 260 312 962 1,560 1,560 1,560 1,560 1,560 1,560
Employment Population 10 13 16 48 78 78 78 78 78 78
Totals 10 273 328 1,010 1,638 1,638 1,638 1,638 1,638 1,638
Residential - Townhomes - - 90 190 290 290 290 290 290 290
Residential - Apartments - 100 30 180 310 310 310 310 310 310
Totals - 100 120 370 600 600 600 600 600 600
Hotel 1 - # rooms 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148
Hotel 2 - # rooms - - 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152
Totals 148 148 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* 150.26$ 152.55$ 154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$
Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* 150.26$ 152.55$ 154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$
Average Hotel Occupancy* 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1%
Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1%
Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%10% 10% 10% 10%
Absorption Rate 100% 100% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
General Fund Revenues
Tax Revenues
Property Tax AV $27,455 $43,679 $33,361 $170,931 $226,496 $231,026 $235,647 $293,319 $299,185 $305,169
Sales and Use Tax Per Capita $0 $33,373 $40,722 $127,707 $210,517 $214,052 $217,636 $221,268 $224,946 $228,161
Sales and Use Tax ‐ Project Specific Separate Analysis $0 $0 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628 $34,628
Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita $158 $4,288 $6,508 $20,153 $32,758 $32,889 $33,015 $33,137 $33,255 $33,422
Transient Occupancy Tax - Project On-Site $625,819 $635,349 $980,612 $1,327,094 $1,347,001 $1,367,206 $1,387,714 $1,408,530 $1,429,658 $1,451,103
Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Per Capita $0 $20,813 $25,280 $78,924 $129,631 $131,334 $133,090 $134,952 $136,809 $138,765
Franchise Fees Per Capita $0 $11,380 $13,643 $42,065 $68,209 $68,205 $68,201 $68,251 $68,299 $68,398
Other Taxes Per Capita $0 $1,185 $1,396 $4,150 $6,536 $6,426 $6,316 $6,206 $6,043 $5,934
Subtotal Tax Revenues $653,432 $750,068 $1,136,149 $1,805,652 $2,055,776 $2,085,764 $2,116,247 $2,200,290 $2,232,823 $2,265,579
Other Revenues Per Capita $0 $1,564 $1,878 $5,627 $9,082 $8,882 $8,843 $8,653 $8,670 $8,488
Licenses and Permits Per Capita $0 $1,302 $1,569 $4,857 $7,906 $7,936 $7,964 $7,992 $8,018 $8,044
Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita $0 $1,030 $1,238 $3,819 $6,197 $6,254 $6,257 $6,312 $6,314 $6,366
Use of Money & Property Per Capita $0 $2,295 $2,729 $8,341 $13,462 $13,401 $13,291 $13,234 $13,130 $13,078
Charges for Services No Forecast $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Intergovernmental Per Capita $0 $1,920 $2,287 $7,001 $11,272 $11,194 $11,119 $11,046 $10,975 $10,956
Subtotal Other Revenues $0 $6,548 $7,823 $24,017 $38,838 $38,785 $38,631 $38,583 $38,437 $38,443
Total General Fund Revenues $653,432 $756,616 $1,143,972 $1,829,669 $2,094,614 $2,124,550 $2,154,878 $2,238,874 $2,271,260 $2,304,022
General Fund Expenditures
General Government Per Capita $108 $3,651 $4,582 $14,608 $25,095 $26,107 $26,987 $27,991 $28,662 $28,516
Community Development (20%)Per Capita $22 $572 $712 $2,268 $3,870 $4,007 $4,100 $4,202 $4,281 $4,280
Public Works/Engineering Per Capita $199 $2,073 $3,137 $9,996 $17,004 $18,154 $18,571 $19,034 $19,392 $19,389
PC/EMP Base
Drainage Management System 26.50$ $358 $7,355 $7,502 $7,652 $7,805 $7,962 $8,121 $8,283 $8,449 $8,618
Building Management System 4.10 $55 $1,137 $1,159 $1,183 $1,206 $1,230 $1,255 $1,280 $1,306 $1,332
Parks Management System 15.68 $212 $4,351 $4,438 $4,527 $4,617 $4,710 $4,804 $4,900 $4,998 $5,098
Open Space Management System 6.72 $91 $1,865 $1,902 $1,940 $1,979 $2,018 $2,059 $2,100 $2,142 $2,185
Fleet Management System 3.73 $50 $1,036 $1,057 $1,078 $1,099 $1,121 $1,144 $1,167 $1,190 $1,214
Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 $191 $3,937 $4,015 $4,096 $4,178 $4,261 $4,346 $4,433 $4,522 $4,612
General Govt Management System 0.65 $9 $181 $185 $189 $192 $196 $200 $204 $208 $212
Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 $91 $1,865 $1,902 $1,940 $1,979 $2,018 $2,059 $2,100 $2,142 $2,185
78.28$ $1,057 $21,726 $22,161 $22,604 $23,056 $23,517 $23,988 $24,467 $24,957 $25,456
Community Services Per Capita $231 $6,051 $7,457 $23,753 $40,234 $41,218 $42,166 $43,217 $44,029 $44,022
Public Safety:
Police Services Per Capita $2,073 $58,521 $67,158 $208,055 $339,119 $340,507 $341,992 $343,586 $345,263 $346,795
Police Services Separate Analysis $2,681 $2,857 $15,298 $15,864 $16,464 $17,071 $17,706 $18,375 $19,070 $19,790
Fire Services Per Capita $1,003 $27,986 $33,667 $104,085 $169,289 $169,857 $170,471 $171,138 $171,843 $172,606
Fire Services Separate Analysis $812 $844 $5,108 $5,215 $5,534 $5,654 $5,777 $5,902 $6,029 $6,159
Animal Control Services Per Capita $112 $2,947 $3,632 $11,569 $19,597 $20,095 $20,552 $21,058 $21,452 $21,451
Total Public Safety $6,682 $93,155 $124,863 $344,788 $550,002 $553,184 $556,499 $560,059 $563,656 $566,801
Total General Fund Expenditures $8,298 $127,229 $162,911 $418,018 $659,261 $666,187 $672,310 $678,970 $684,975 $688,463
Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$645,133 $629,387 $981,061 $1,411,651 $1,435,353 $1,458,362 $1,482,568 $1,559,904 $1,586,285 $1,615,559
Population
Number of Homes
Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific)
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Property Tax Analysis
Residential Units
Multi‐Family Residential ‐ Attached Townhomes
Total Cumulative MFR Units 290 - - 90 190 290 290 290 290 290 290
Total Cumulative Residents 2.60 - - 234 494 754 754 754 754 754 754
Percentage Complete 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Multi‐Family Attached Apartments
Total Cumulative MFR Units 610 - 100 30 180 310 310 310 310 310 310
Total Cumulative Residents 2.60 - 260 78 468 806 806 806 806 806 806
Percentage Complete 0% 16% 5% 30% 51% 51% 51% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values $73,815,000 $0 $12,100,820 $3,630,246 $21,781,475 $37,512,541 $37,512,541 $37,512,541 $73,815,000 $73,815,000 $73,815,000
Total Cumulative Residents ‐ 260 312 962 1,560 1,560 1,560 1,560 1,560 1,560
FC 1 Parcel ‐ Commercial Center
Percentage Complete 78% 88% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
FC 2 Parcel ‐ Mixed Use Commercial
Percentage Complete 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values 83,429,210$ -$ -$ -$ 83,429,210$ 83,429,210$ 83,429,210$ 83,429,210$ 83,429,210$ 83,429,210$ 83,429,210$
Hotel
Percentage Complete 49% 49% 49% 49% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Constructed Assessed Values 43,820,100$ 21,617,916$ 21,617,916$ 21,617,916$ 21,617,916$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$ 43,820,100$
Constructed Assessed Values
Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 21,617,916$ 33,718,736$ 25,248,162$ 126,828,601$ 164,761,851$ 164,761,851$ 164,761,851$ 201,064,310$ 201,064,310$ 201,064,310$
Inflation Factor 2.00% 100.00% 102.00% 104.04% 106.12% 108.24% 110.41%112.62% 114.87% 117.17% 119.51%
Total AV - Inflated $21,617,916 $34,393,110 $26,268,188 $134,591,526 $178,343,526 $181,910,397 $185,548,605 $230,959,691 $235,578,885 $240,290,463
Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) $21,617,916 $34,393,110 $26,268,188 $134,591,526 $178,343,526 $181,910,397 $185,548,605 $230,959,691 $235,578,885 $240,290,463
Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cumulative Residential AV ‐ Inflated $21,617,916 $34,393,110 $26,268,188 $134,591,526 $178,343,526 $181,910,397 $185,548,605 $230,959,691 $235,578,885 $240,290,463
Property Tax Revenue Estimate
Ad-Valorem 1.00% 216,179$ 343,931$ 262,682$ 1,345,915$ 1,783,435$ 1,819,104$ 1,855,486$ 2,309,597$ 2,355,789$ 2,402,905$
Total AV Tax Due to City 12.70% $27,455 $43,679 $33,361 $170,931 $226,496 $231,026 $235,647 $293,319 $299,185 $305,169
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Sales Tax Analysis ‐ On‐Site Retail
Total (Square Feet)
FC 1 Site - Commercial Center - - - - - - - - - -
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) - - 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Totals - - 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet)Absorption
FC 1 Site - Commercial Center 96% - - - - - - - - - -
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 90% - - 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500
Occupied Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet) Occupancy Rate
FC 1 Site - Commercial Center 95% - - - - - - - - - -
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 95% - - 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825 12,825
Taxable Sales Projected (Estimate) Sales PSF
FC 1 Site - Commercial Center 270.00$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 270.00$ - - 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750 3,462,750
Total Taxable Retail Sales Estimated -$ -$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$ 3,462,750$
Annual Sales Taxes to the City
FC 1 Site - Commercial Center 1.00% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
FC 2 Site - Mixed Use (Comm. & Resid.) 1.00% - - 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628 34,628
Total Annual Sales Taxes to the City ‐$ ‐$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$ 34,628$
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
POPULATION 272,736 277,555 282,375 287,195 292,015 296,835 301,655 306,475 311,295 316,115
CHANGE IN POPULATION 4,819 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820
2.8 # of DU 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721
UTURE SFR 4,854 SFR 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306
UTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415
27,321
- COMMERCIAL (ACRES) - FC2 - - 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
- COMMERCIAL (ACRES) - FC1 - - - - - - - - - -
- HOTEL (Industrial) (ACRES) 3.30 3.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30
EXISTING ACRES
POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 3,768.38$ 3,768.38$ 4,016.02$ 3,964.93$ 4,111.71$ 4,267.17$ 4,424.58$ 4,589.04$ 4,762.56$ 4,942.53$ 5,129.23$
POLICE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 812.45$ 812.45$ 865.84$ 854.83$ 886.47$ 919.99$ 953.93$ 989.38$ 1,026.79$ 1,065.59$ 1,105.85$
POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 2,681$ 2,857$ 15,298$ 15,864$ 16,464$ 17,071$ 17,706$ 18,375$ 19,070$ 19,790$
EXISTING ACRES
FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,234.54$ 1,234.54$ 1,283.28$ 1,360.11$ 1,388.48$ 1,473.53$ 1,505.58$ 1,538.17$ 1,571.53$ 1,605.23$ 1,640.06$
FIRE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 246.05$ 246.05$ 255.76$ 271.08$ 276.73$ 293.68$ 300.07$ 306.57$ 313.21$ 319.93$ 326.87$
FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 812$ 844$ 5,108$ 5,215$ 5,534$ 5,654$ 5,777$ 5,902$ 6,029$ 6,159$
POPULATION PER DU
FACTOR