The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutItem 8 - Additional InformationI" 8 - AddltTowaL IV fv ITY COUNCIL STATEMENT Cl IY OF CHULA VISTA July 10, 2018 File ID: 18-0202 ERRATA SHEET Replace the "Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA)" Section beginning on page 8 with the following: Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) The Applicant's proposal includes a revised Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) evaluating the proposed amendment (see Fiscal Impact Analysis, Attachment 4). This FIA has been prepared using the City's new fiscal model which was first provided to the Applicant in October of last year. Staff worked with the Applicant who provided the necessary project -specific inputs to the plan needed to calculate the City's maintenance costs. It is important to note that the FIA presents a projection of the anticipated fiscal impacts of the development, based upon the best information currently available. Actual fiscal impacts as a result of development may vary from model outcomes. The FIA evaluates the following scenarios: 1. Proposed Amendment Maximum Buildout - This scenario assumes development of the proposed maximum buildout, including 2-,5-502 983 residential units and 3 11 53.324 million square feet of non-residential uses. The non-residential uses assumed include approximately 252_7 million square feet of office, 38000395.000 square feet of retail uses, 130,000 square feet of civic uses (school and fire station), and a single 135 -room hotel 96.000 square feetl. 2. 2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (assumes 500 hotel rooms) - This scenario assumes development of the adopted maximum building, including 2,983 residential units and 3.487 million square feet of non-residential uses. The non-residential uses assumed in the 2009 plan include approximately 2.0 million square feet of office, approximately 800,000 square feet of retail uses, 160,000 square feet of civic uses, and two hotels totaling 500 rooms (375.000 square feet). 3. 2009 Adopted Plan with reduced Hotel (assumes 135 hotel rooms) - In recognition of the fact that since the original Millenia entitlements were approved the City has approved three hotels in addition to the one approved in Millenia - this scenario looks at the 2009 full build scenario but includes only the 135 -room hotel currently under construction (reduction of 365 hotel rooms). Based on the FIA and the assumptions contained therein, all of the scenarios above are projected to generate a positive net fiscal impact to the City by year two -three (201 Q2020/24W2021). The relative fiscal performance of the three scenarios over a 30 -year buildout term are compared in the table below. Page Comparison of Modeled Fiscal Impact1s 1,596 (Annual Net Impact, Millions) 2,983 2,983 Hotel Rooms Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year 30 Non -Residential SF Revenues $4--7-41_ $�69 _ $8:77_8 $989.7 $44.' 11.1 $13:112.9 Proposed Amendment Hotel SF 96.148 329,388 96.148 96.148 96.148 96.148 96.148 (135 Hotel Rooms) Expenses ($9'-.23 1) ($446_1) ($�6 9) ($7.3) ($7.4) ($7.6) 688,9001,981,000 1.107.820 Net impact $131.0 $40_7 $1 50.8 $2.62_4 $3 8¢ $"5_3 � 346 Revenues $2.4 $6.0 $9.9 $12.0 $13.8 $15.4 2009 Adopted Plan (135 Hotel Rooms) Expenses ($2.1) ($4.8) ($7.2) ($7.4) ($7.6) ($7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $1.1 $2.7 $4.6 $6.2 $7.7 Revenues $2.4 $7.6 $11.7 $14.0 $15.9 $17.7 2009 Adopted Plan (500 Hotel Rooms) Expenses ($2.0) ($4.8) ($7.2) ($7.4) ($7.6) ($7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $2.8 $4.5 $6.5 $8.3 $10.0 The Proposed Amendment (135 Hotel Room) scenario assumes development phasing as summarized in the table below. Proposed 1 1 1 Phasing Assumptions Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year 30 Residential Units 1,596 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 Hotel Rooms 135 135 135 135 135 135 Non -Residential SF 2,983 Hotel Rooms 250 500 500 500 Hotel SF 96.148 329,388 96.148 96.148 96.148 96.148 96.148 Retail &-14etel SF 18n9n.600 388;846 221.200 388,846 221.200 389,846 n395,000 389,946 395.000 388,946 395.000 Office SF 688,9001,981,000 1.107.820 - 1.675.240 1,657,500 1.756.300 1,818-.900 1,918.420 2,940,000 2.161.600 2,z- 90000 2.702.000 � n1 000 loco � 346 350,000 Total Non -Residential SF -rvrsow 3 1.393.568 946 1.992588 ,zvro�-iv 046 2.073.648 2,199,346 2.409.568 2 42o 846 a::too�av 2.652.748 2,938,946 3.193.148 *Note: Civic uses are assumed to have no net fiscal impact and are therefore excluded. The Proposed Amendment phasing assumptions can be compared with the assumptions in the 2009 Adopted Plan fiscal analysis, summarized in the table below. 009 Adopted Development Phasing Assum1 1 Year 5 Year 7 Year 12 Year 17 Year 22 Residential Units 1,245 1,743 2,983 2,983 2,983 Hotel Rooms 250 500 500 500 S00 Non -Residential SF Hotel SF 187,500 375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 Retail SF 73,850 221,550 738,500 883,400 980,000 Office SF 88,650 265,950 886,500 1,552,200 1,996,000 Total Non -Residential SF 350,000 862,500 2,000,000 2,810,600 3,351,000 Page 12 Overall, comparing projected net annual fiscal impacts in year 30 for the 2009 Adopted Plan and the Proposed Amendment ($10.0 million and $&45_3 million, respectively) indicates a $444.7 million reduced annual positive fiscal impact. It is important to note that a key driver reducing the fiscal benefit to the City between the Proposed Amendment scenario and the 2009 Adopted Plan scenario is Transient Occupancy Taxes, and the fact that the City's model attributes very little service costs to hotels. At year 30, approximately $2.3 million of the projected net fiscal benefit associated with the 2009 Adopted Maximum Buildout Scenario is attributable to the 365 additional hotel rooms assumed under that scenario. This is a relevant comparison as it recognizes that the City has not lost the TOT revenues, but rather those revenues have been relocated to other locations in the Eastern Territories where hotels have been added since the entitlements for Millenia were approved in 2009. Replace #1 under the "Developer Agreement" Section on page 10 with the following: Developer Agreement 1. Net Revenue - The first benefit identified in the existing DA was annual net revenue over the cost of providing municipal services of approximately $5.0 million in buildout year 22. As shown above, the updated fiscal impact analysis using a more current fiscal model shows that the original project could have resulted in estimated annual net revenues of $10.0 million in year 30. Applying this new fiscal model to the proposed project amendment, including the reduced non-residential development, the estimated annual net revenue is projected to be approximately $4,95_3 million in year 30. While this equates to a reduction of $434_7 million annually from the approved plan, it still represents a significant positive fiscal impact to the City's General Fund. Replace the "Ongoing Fiscal Impact" Section beginning on page 11 with the following: ONGOING FISCAL IMPACT As discussed in the Fiscal Impact Analysis section of this report, the Proposed Amendment is projected to result in net positive fiscal impacts throughout the development period, ranging from $331_0 million to $545_3 million annually. Cumulative impacts of the Proposed Amendment buildout scenario during the term of the 30 -year analysis are anticipated to total approximately $69357.8 million, with an annual average positive impact of $2:31_9 million. The table below summarizes the projected annual net fiscal impact for representative buildout years for the Proposed Amendment, the 2009 Adopted Plan as originally approved (assuming 500 hotel rooms], and the 2009 Adopted Plan (assuming only the 135 hotel rooms constructed to date). Comparison od• •d Fiscal Impact Scenarios (Annual Net Impact, Millions) Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year 30 Proposed Revenues $474_1 $76_9 $9-77_8 $-9-997 $3-311.1 $4112.9 Amendment Expenses $(3-23_1) $(636_1) $(7, 6_9) $(7.3) $(7.4) $(7.6) 135 Hotel Rooms Net Impact $351_0 $.4017 $3 50.8 $2-:62_4 $3-:83_6 $555.3 2009 Adopted Plan Revenues $2.4 $6.0 $9.9 $12.0 $13.8 $15.4 (135 Hotel Rooms) Expenses $(2.1) $(4.8) $(7.2) $(7.4) $(7.6) $(7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $1.1 $2.7 $4.6 $6.2 $7.7 2009 Adopted Plan Revenues $2.4 $7.6 $11.7 $14.0 $15.9 $17.7 (500 Hotel Rooms) Expenses $(2.0) $(4.8) $(7.2) $(7.4) $(7.6) $(7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $2.8 $4.5 $6.5 $8.3 $10.0 Page 13 As illustrated in the table above, reducing the hotel rooms assumed to be developed by 365 decreases the projected annual positive impact in year 30 by approximately $2.3 million. This accounts for just eveF under 50% of the total projected positive impact reduction in year 30 resulting from the Proposed Amendment. Additional adjustments to the development plan further reduce the year 30 projected net positive fiscal benefit from $10.0 million (2009 Adopted Plan with 500 hotel rooms) to $5-55_3 million. While a comparison of the Proposed Amendment with the 2009 Adopted Plan (with 500 hotel rooms) indicates reduced positive impacts of approximately $4:54_7 million annually in year 30, the plan continues to indicate significant net positive impacts to the City's General Fund as a result of the Millenia project. When considering the above, it is important to note that the Fiscal Impact Analysis presents projections based upon the best information currently available. Actual fiscal impacts as a result of this development may vary from those indicated by the model. Pursuant to Section 4.5 (Operating Deficit) of the Millenia Development Agreement, the Master Developer will cover the City s net operating deficit during the initial years of the project (excluding fire services), up to a cumulative maximum of $500,000. The amount of the deficit is to be determined via a fiscal study to be prepared by the City at the Master Developer's cost. Per the Development Agreement, the first fiscal analysis "shall be conducted following the end of the fiscal year which is two (2) years following the first occupancy within the Property, and annually thereafter at the end of each fiscal year." The first Millenia certificate of occupancy was issued to Fairfield Residential, on October 23, 2015. Based upon this date, the first fiscal analysis shall be conducted after June 30, 2018. Initiation of the first fiscal analysis is expected in July of 2018. Replace Attachment 4 with the revised Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) attached. Staff Contact. Stacey Kurz, Senior Project Coordinator Page 14 P a g e | 1 July 10, 2018 File ID: 18-0202 ERRATA SHEET Replace the “Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA)” Section beginning on page 8 with the following: Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) The Applicant’s proposal includes a revised Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) evaluating the proposed amendment (see Fiscal Impact Analysis, Attachment 4). This FIA has been prepared using the City’s new fiscal model which was first provided to the Applicant in October of last year. Staff worked with the Applicant who provided the necessary project-specific inputs to the plan needed to calculate the City’s maintenance costs. It is important to note that the FIA presents a projection of the anticipated fiscal impacts of the development, based upon the best information currently available. Actual fiscal impacts as a result of development may vary from model outcomes. The FIA evaluates the following scenarios: 1. Proposed Amendment Maximum Buildout - This scenario assumes development of the proposed maximum buildout, including 2,983 residential units and 3.324 million square feet of non-residential uses. The non-residential uses assumed include approximately 2.7 million square feet of office, 395,000 square feet of retail uses, 130,000 square feet of civic uses (school and fire station), and a single 135-room hotel (96,000 square feet). 2. 2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (assumes 500 hotel rooms) - This scenario assumes development of the adopted maximum building, including 2,983 residential units and 3.487 million square feet of non-residential uses. The non-residential uses assumed in the 2009 plan include approximately 2.0 million square feet of office, approximately 800,000 square feet of retail uses, 160,000 square feet of civic uses, and two hotels totaling 500 rooms (375,000 square feet). 3. 2009 Adopted Plan with reduced Hotel (assumes 135 hotel rooms) - In recognition of the fact that since the original Millenia entitlements were approved the City has approved three hotels in addition to the one approved in Millenia - this scenario looks at the 2009 full build scenario but includes only the 135-room hotel currently under construction (reduction of 365 hotel rooms). Based on the FIA and the assumptions contained therein, all of the scenarios above are projected to generate a positive net fiscal impact to the City by year three (2020/2021). The relative fiscal performance of the three scenarios over a 30-year buildout term are compared in the table below. P a g e | 2 Comparison of Modeled Fiscal Impact Scenarios (Annual Net Impact, Millions) Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year 30 Proposed Amendment (135 Hotel Rooms) Revenues $4.1 $6.9 $7.8 $9.7 $11.1 $12.9 Expenses ($3.1) ($6.1) ($6.9) ($7.3) ($7.4) ($7.6) Net Impact $1.0 $0.7 $0.8 $2.4 $3.6 $5.3 2009 Adopted Plan (135 Hotel Rooms) Revenues $2.4 $6.0 $9.9 $12.0 $13.8 $15.4 Expenses ($2.1) ($4.8) ($7.2) ($7.4) ($7.6) ($7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $1.1 $2.7 $4.6 $6.2 $7.7 2009 Adopted Plan (500 Hotel Rooms) Revenues $2.4 $7.6 $11.7 $14.0 $15.9 $17.7 Expenses ($2.0) ($4.8) ($7.2) ($7.4) ($7.6) ($7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $2.8 $4.5 $6.5 $8.3 $10.0 The Proposed Amendment (135 Hotel Room) scenario assumes development phasing as summarized in the table below. Proposed Amendment Development Phasing Assumptions Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year 30 Residential Units 1,596 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 Hotel Rooms 135 135 135 135 135 135 Non-Residential SF Hotel SF 96,148 96,148 96,148 96,148 96,148 96,148 Retail SF 189,600 221,200 221,200 395,000 395,000 395,000 Office SF 1,107,820 1,675,240 1,756,300 1,918,420 2,161,600 2,702,000 Total Non-Residential SF 1,393,568 1,992,588 2,073,648 2,409,568 2,652,748 3,193,148 *Note: Civic uses are assumed to have no net fiscal impact and are therefore excluded. The Proposed Amendment phasing assumptions can be compared with the assumptions in the 2009 Adopted Plan fiscal analysis, summarized in the table below. 2009 Adopted Development Phasing Assumptions Year 5 Year 7 Year 12 Year 17 Year 22 Residential Units 1,245 1,743 2,983 2,983 2,983 Hotel Rooms 250 500 500 500 500 Non-Residential SF Hotel SF 187,500 375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 Retail SF 73,850 221,550 738,500 883,400 980,000 Office SF 88,650 265,950 886,500 1,552,200 1,996,000 Total Non-Residential SF 350,000 862,500 2,000,000 2,810,600 3,351,000 P a g e | 3 Overall, comparing projected net annual fiscal impacts in year 30 for the 2009 Adopted Plan and the Proposed Amendment ($10.0 million and $5.3 million, respectively) indicates a $4.7 million reduced annual positive fiscal impact. It is important to note that a key driver reducing the fiscal benefit to the City between the Proposed Amendment scenario and the 2009 Adopted Plan scenario is Transient Occupancy Taxes, and the fact that the City’s model attributes very little service costs to hotels. At year 30, approximately $2.3 million of the projected net fiscal benefit associated with the 2009 Adopted Maximum Buildout Scenario is attributable to the 365 additional hotel rooms assumed under that scenario. This is a relevant comparison as it recognizes that the City has not lost the TOT revenues, but rather those revenues have been relocated to other locations in the Eastern Territories where hotels have been added since the entitlements for Millenia were approved in 2009. Replace #1 under the “Developer Agreement” Section on page 10 with the following: Developer Agreement 1. Net Revenue – The first benefit identified in the existing DA was annual net revenue over the cost of providing municipal services of approximately $5.0 million in buildout year 22. As shown above, the updated fiscal impact analysis using a more current fiscal model shows that the original project could have resulted in estimated annual net revenues of $10.0 million in year 30. Applying this new fiscal model to the proposed project amendment, including the reduced non-residential development, the estimated annual net revenue is projected to be approximately $5.3 million in year 30. While this equates to a reduction of $4.7 million annually from the approved plan, it still represents a significant positive fiscal impact to the City’s General Fund. Replace the “Ongoing Fiscal Impact” Section beginning on page 11 with the following: ONGOING FISCAL IMPACT As discussed in the Fiscal Impact Analysis section of this report, the Proposed Amendment is projected to result in net positive fiscal impacts throughout the development period, ranging from $1.0 million to $5.3 million annually. Cumulative impacts of the Proposed Amendment buildout scenario during the term of the 30-year analysis are anticipated to total approximately $57.8 million, with an annual average positive impact of $1.9 million. The table below summarizes the projected annual net fiscal impact for representative buildout years for the Proposed Amendment, the 2009 Adopted Plan as originally approved (assuming 500 hotel rooms), and the 2009 Adopted Plan (assuming only the 135 hotel rooms constructed to date). Comparison of Modeled Fiscal Impact Scenarios (Annual Net Impact, Millions) Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year 30 Proposed Amendment (135 Hotel Rooms) Revenues $4.1 $6.9 $7.8 $9.7 $11.1 $12.9 Expenses $(3.1) $(6.1) $(6.9) $(7.3) $(7.4) $(7.6) Net Impact $1.0 $0.7 $0.8 $2.4 $3.6 $5.3 2009 Adopted Plan (135 Hotel Rooms) Revenues $2.4 $6.0 $9.9 $12.0 $13.8 $15.4 Expenses $(2.1) $(4.8) $(7.2) $(7.4) $(7.6) $(7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $1.1 $2.7 $4.6 $6.2 $7.7 2009 Adopted Plan (500 Hotel Rooms) Revenues $2.4 $7.6 $11.7 $14.0 $15.9 $17.7 Expenses $(2.0) $(4.8) $(7.2) $(7.4) $(7.6) $(7.7) Net Impact $0.3 $2.8 $4.5 $6.5 $8.3 $10.0 P a g e | 4 As illustrated in the table above, reducing the hotel rooms assumed to be developed by 365 decreases the projected annual positive impact in year 30 by approximately $2.3 million. This accounts for just under 50% of the total projected positive impact reduction in year 30 resulting from the Proposed Amendment. Additional adjustments to the development plan further reduce the year 30 projected net positive fiscal benefit from $10.0 million (2009 Adopted Plan with 500 hotel rooms) to $5.3 million. While a comparison of the Proposed Amendment with the 2009 Adopted Plan (with 500 hotel rooms) indicates reduced positive impacts of approximately $4.7 million annually in year 30, the plan continues to indicate significant net positive impacts to the City’s General Fund as a result of the Millenia project. When considering the above, it is important to note that the Fiscal Impact Analysis presents projections based upon the best information currently available. Actual fiscal impacts as a result of this development may vary from those indicated by the model. Pursuant to Section 4.5 (Operating Deficit) of the Millenia Development Agreement, the Master Developer will cover the City’s net operating deficit during the initial years of the project (excluding fire services), up to a cumulative maximum of $500,000. The amount of the deficit is to be determined via a fiscal study to be prepared by the City at the Master Developer’s cost. Per the Development Agreement, the first fiscal analysis “shall be conducted following the end of the fiscal year which is two (2) years following the first occupancy within the Property, and annually thereafter at the end of each fiscal year.” The first Millenia certificate of occupancy was issued to Fairfield Residential, on October 23, 2015. Based upon this date, the first fiscal analysis shall be conducted after June 30, 2018. Initiation of the first fiscal analysis is expected in July of 2018. Replace Attachment 4 with the revised Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) attached. Staff Contact: Stacey Kurz, Senior Project Coordinator Report for: Millenia Fiscal Impact Analysis Chula Vista, CA Prepared for: SLF IV - Millenia, LLC Prepared by: Pro Forma Advisors, LLC, re+ep July 2018 PFAID: 10-808 Version: 11.0 Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Los Angeles T 310.616.5079 New York Metro T 203.604.9007 F 888.696.9716 www.ProFormaAdvisors.com Table of Contents Introduction 1 Results 1 Project Description 4 Model Inputs 5 Appendix 9 Proposed Amendment FIA Tables 9 Pro Forma Advisors, LLC PFAID: 10-824.11 General Limiting Conditions Certain information included in this report contains forward-looking estimates, projections and/or statements. Pro Forma Advisors LLC has based these projections, estimates and/or statements on expected future events. These forward- looking items include statements that reﬂect our existing beliefs and knowledge regarding the operating environment, existing trends, existing plans, objectives, goals, expectations, anticipations, results of operations, future performance and business plans. Further, statements that include the words "may," "could," "should," "would," "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "intend," "plan," “project,” or other words or expressions of similar meaning have been utilized. These statements reﬂect our judgment on the date they are made and we undertake no duty to update such statements in the future. No warranty or representation is made by Pro Forma Advisors that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved. Although we believe that the expectations in these reports are reasonable, any or all of the estimates or projections in this report may prove to be incorrect. To the extent possible, we have attempted to verify and conﬁrm estimates and assumptions used in this analysis. However, some assumptions inevitably will not materialize as a result of inaccurate assumptions or as a consequence of known or unknown risks and uncertainties and unanticipated events and circumstances, which may occur. Consequently, actual results achieved during the period covered by our analysis will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material. As such, Pro Forma Advisors accepts no liability in relation to the estimates provided herein. In the production of this report, Pro Forma Advisors has served solely in the capacity of consultant and Pro Forma Advisors has not rendered any “expert” opinions and does not hold itself out as an “expert” (as the term “expert” is deﬁned in Section 11 of the Securities Act of 1933). This report is not to be used in conjunction with any public or private offering of securities, and may not be relied upon with the express written consent of Pro Forma Advisors. This study is qualiﬁed in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions, and considerations. Pro Forma Advisors, LLC PFAID: 10-824.11 Introduction SLF IV - Millenia, LLC (“Owner” or “Client”) retained Pro Forma Advisors to evaluate the ﬁscal impacts of several build out scenarios for the approved project commonly referred to as “Millenia” and previously referred to as the Eastern Urban Center (“EUC”), which is part of the Otay Ranch Master Planned Community located in the City of Chula Vista (“City”). These build-out scenarios include the following: Proposed Amendment This scenario assumes the Millenia project continues to intensify over time and builds out to the maximum buildout under the proposed amendment which is 2,983 residential units and 3.32 million square feet of commercial uses. This scenario includes approximately 2.7 million square feet of ofﬁce, 395,000 square feet of commercial, a 135-room hotel and approximately 130,000 square feet of civic uses. 2009 Adopted Plan This scenario assumes the Millenia project builds out to the maximum buildout under the current entitlements of 2,983 residential units and 3.48 million square feet of commercial uses. This scenario includes approximately 2.0 million sf of ofﬁce, 980,000 square feet of commercial (including 160,000 square feet of civic and recreational uses), and two, 250- room hotels (500 rooms total). 2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel This scenario assumes the Millenia project builds out to the maximum buildout under the current entitlements but rather than two, 250-room hotels, the project includes a single 135-room hotel similar to the proposed project. The approved entitlements allow a maximum buildout at 2,983 residential units and 3.48 million square feet of commercial uses. The prior ﬁscal impact study prepared as part of the approved public facilities ﬁnancing plan (“PFFP”) for Millenia evaluated the 2009 Adopted Plan scenario. Results The following analysis evaluates the ﬁscal impact of the various scenarios across a 30-year period, including build out that is projected to occur prior to Fiscal Year (FY) 30. For the purposes of this analysis, net ﬁscal impacts refer to the ﬁscal revenues less the ﬁscal costs generated by the development. A positive net ﬁscal impact means that the ﬁscal revenues covers the costs generated by the development. Using the City’s FIA Framework, the Proposed Amendment scenario would have a net positive revenue annual impact of approximately $740,000 in Year 10 (FY 2027) that is expected to grow to approximately $2.4 million in an illustrative Year 20 (FY 2037) and $5.4 million in an illustrative Year 30 (FY 2047). Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 1 PFAID: 10-824.11 Figure 1 - Net Fiscal Impact (Future Year Dollars) Year 10 (FY 2027) Year 20 (FY 2037) Year 30 (FY 2047) 30 Year Analysis30 Year AnalysisYear 10 (FY 2027) Year 20 (FY 2037) Year 30 (FY 2047) Cumulative Average Total General Fund Revenues $ 6,851,032 $ 9,652,886 $ 12,910,221 $ 235,258,848 $ 7,841,962 Total General Fund Expenditures $ 6,129,873 $ 7,273,249 $ 7,597,932 $ 177,466,660 $ 5,915,555 Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$ 738,501 $ 2,403,874 $ 5,354,145 $ 57,792,188 $ 1,926,406 Source: Pro Forma Advisors and City of Chula Vista In 2009, Economic Research Associates conducted a FIA for the approved EUC Speciﬁc Plan Area (SPA) that estimated a range of positive net ﬁscal impacts of the project under a different development program. Using the City’s current FIA model, the net ﬁscal impact associated with the 2009 Adopted Plan scenario is presented below. A second analysis is also provided, for comparison purposes, with the 2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel. Figure 2 - Net Fiscal Impact Comparison (Future Year Dollars) $5,312,290 $7,709,985 $9,993,718 ($2,000,000) $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 FY 2037 FY 2038 FY 2039 FY 2040 FY 2041 FY 2042 FY 2043 FY 2044 FY 2045 FY 2046 FY 2047 Proposed Amendment 2009 Apodted Plan (135 Rooms) 2009 Apodted Plan (500 Rooms) Source: Economics Research Associates; Pro Forma Advisors; City of Chula Vista The purpose of including a scenario which assumes full buildout under the adopted plan but with a reduced number of hotel rooms was to illustrate the impact of the hotels and the Transient Occupancy Taxes (TOT) on the overall ﬁscal performance of the various alternatives. As noted by the Client, the single hotel currently planned is a direct consequence of City's decision to approve the construction of two new hotels, which total 300 rooms, in the Freeway Commercial SPA Plan amendment. If this direct competition, as well as the two new hotels being located in the Eastlake Business Park, were known at the time of Millenia's entitlement, then it is likely that no hotels, or perhaps a single smaller hotel would have been included and theoretically modeled in the ﬁscal study. Another way to look at this is that the net ﬁscal revenue associated with the hotel rooms were not lost, but rather transferred to another location in the City. Consequently, due to the weight given to TOT in the City's current ﬁscal model as well as differences between the overall development program, speciﬁcally the additional reduction of housing and retail development, comparisons between the Proposed Amendment and either of the proposed plan scenarios are not appropriate. While still a different Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 2 PFAID: 10-824.11 development programs and assumptions regarding absorption, a comparison between the Proposed Amendment and the 2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel is a more direct comparison. Figure 3 - Net Fiscal Impact of All Scenarios (Millions of Future Year Dollars) Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year 30 Proposed Amendment (135 room hotel)Proposed Amendment (135 room hotel)Proposed Amendment (135 room hotel)Proposed Amendment (135 room hotel)Proposed Amendment (135 room hotel)Proposed Amendment (135 room hotel)Proposed Amendment (135 room hotel) Total General Fund Revenues $4.1 $6.9 $7.8 $9.7 $11.1 $12.9 Total General Fund Expenditures $3.1 $6.1 $6.9 $7.3 $7.4 $7.6 Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$1.0 $0.7 $0.8 $2.4 $3.6 $5.3 2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel (135 room hotel)2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel (135 room hotel)2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel (135 room hotel)2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel (135 room hotel)2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel (135 room hotel)2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel (135 room hotel)2009 Adopted Plan with Reduced Hotel (135 room hotel) Total General Fund Revenues $2.4 $6.0 $9.9 $12.0 $13.8 $15.4 Total General Fund Expenditures $2.1 $4.8 $7.2 $7.4 $7.6 $7.7 Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$0.3 $1.1 $2.7 $4.6 $6.2 $7.7 2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (500 hotel rooms)2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (500 hotel rooms)2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (500 hotel rooms)2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (500 hotel rooms)2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (500 hotel rooms)2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (500 hotel rooms)2009 Adopted Plan Maximum Buildout (500 hotel rooms) Total General Fund Revenues $2.4 $7.6 $11.7 $14.0 $15.9 $17.7 Total General Fund Expenditures $2.0 $4.8 $7.2 $7.4 $7.6 $7.7 Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)$0.3 $2.8 $4.5 $6.5 $8.3 $10.0 Source: Pro Forma Advisors and City of Chula Vista Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 3 PFAID: 10-824.11 Project Description The Client is currently developing the Millenia project in the eastern portion of the City on vacant land located south of Birch Road, west of the SR-125, north of Hunte Parkway, and east of Eastlake Parkway (“Project Site”). The Project Site includes multiple parcels totaling approximately 145 net developable acres (Figure 4). Millenia will serve as a new urban center for the Otay Ranch and eastern Chula Vista community. The area is planned to include a variety of land uses including ofﬁce, retail, hotel, and residential uses. Millenia will create an iconic urban village with a mixture of uses similar to a downtown environment and is anticipated be denser relative to the City as a whole. Figure 4 - Site Map Source: ESRi Business Analyst; Pro Forma Advisors Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 4 PFAID: 10-824.11 Figure 5 presents the land use program for the Proposed Amendment in comparison to the previously analyzed PFFP development program. The development program analyzed in the EUC SPA FIA1 includes approximately 2 million square feet of ofﬁce, 160,000 square feet of civic uses, 815,000 square feet of retail, 165,000 square feet of residential ﬁtness center, 500 hotel rooms (two 250-room properties), and 2,983 medium to high density for-sale residential units. The absorption schedule used in that FIA was expected to extend for over a 20 year build out during which the projects land uses would intensify overtime, with early phase surface parking lots being replaced by taller buildings and structured parking. Figure 5 - Estimated Building Square Feet Land Use Proposed Scenario Approved SPA Proposed vs. SPA Approved (Percent of Approved) Retail (SF)395,000 815,000 48% Ofﬁce (SF)2,702,000 2,007,000 135% Civic (SF)130,852 160,000 82% Hotel (Rooms)135 500 27% Residential (Units)2,983 2,983 100% Note: 5,532 square feet of the retail space includes 4,200 SF of dedicated retail, 282 square feet of outdoor seating/plaza space, and 1050 square feet of live work space. For the purposes of this analysis, these mixed-use retail space has been classiﬁed as “retail” for the purpose of the FIA. Source: Economics Research Associates, Pro Forma Advisors Model Inputs Development Program Absorption The information provided has been provided by the Client and reﬂects the actual plans of their merchant builders, a qualiﬁed real estate market research ﬁrm hired by the Client, consultations with local developers, as well as their own development expertise to provide guidance on a reasonable build out timeline for the residential units given current market conditions. The following absorption schedules for commercial development were based on input provided by the Clients merchant builders and a review of the historical absorption of commercial development in the City across the last decade. Please see delivered model for speciﬁc assumptions regarding project absorption. Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 5 PFAID: 10-824.11 1 Memorandum “Eastern Urban Center Fiscal” dated March 31, 2009. Assessed Value The capitalized value approach was used to estimate the market value of commercial properties. Pro Forma used an average ofﬁce lease rent of $2.60 (triple net or “NNN”) per month and a cap rate for a Class A ofﬁce product (6.0 percent) as reported for San Diego in the CBRE’s Capitalization Rate Survey for the second-half of 2015.2 The cap rate is applied to the net operating income after reductions have been made for operating expenses and structural vacancy. As it relates to the NNN rent structure, it is assumed that the development recovers the vast amount of expenses. The capitalized value approach provided an assessed value of $400 per gross square foot of building area for the ofﬁce space. A similar methodology was used to estimate the market value of the proposed retail development. Pro Forma used an average retail lease rent of $3.00 NNN per month and $1.50 NNN per month for the small-format (neighborhood) retail and large-format (community) retail, respectively. A 5.5 percent cap rate was used to estimate the value of both the community and neighborhood retail after accounting for operating expenses and structural vacancy. The capitalized value approach provided an assessed value of $532 and $266 per gross square foot of building area of the small-format and large-format retail, respectively. Currently, Chula Vista hotel accommodations have generally lower asking room rates than other submarkets in the larger San Diego market area. However, existing accommodations options include primarily economy level limited service hotels. The Client anticipates that the hotel developed at the Project Site will be of a higher quality and exceed the average daily room rate of many of the existing properties in the City. Based on information provided within the City model, PFA utilized a stabilized average daily rates of $154.87 with 77.1 percent occupancy. Using standard industry operating margins and a current cap rate of approximate 7.5 percent, each hotel room is projected to have a value of approximately $349,000 per room (key). The for-sale residential assessed value was determined based on the average, unadjusted, sales price. For-rent residential units’ assessed value was based on the assumed average asking rent along with the associated operating costs for multi-family residential development. The current multi-family for rent cap rate in San Diego (4.75 recent) was applied to estimate the total project value. In the FIA, for-sale residential were estimated to yield approximately $459,000 per unit while for-rent development was estimated to yield approximately $290,000 per unit.3 Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 6 PFAID: 10-824.11 2 Released May 2016 3 Assessed value assumptions on a per unit basis were utilized in the 2009 ﬁscal analysis. Figure 6 - Estimated Assessed Value by Land Use (2017 Dollars) Development (Units)Units Value per Unit per Year Building Efficiency Occ. Rate OpEx Cap Rate Est. Value (MM) Est. Value per Unit Retail Small-Format (SF)72,634 $36 90%95%5.0%5.50%$39 $532 Large-Format (SF)322,366 $18 90%95%5.0%5.50%$86 $266 Ofﬁce (SF)2,702,000 $31 90%90%5.0%6.00%$1,056 $391 Hotel (Rooms)135 $56,575 40.0%7.50%$47 $349,000 Residential For-Sale (Dwelling Units)1,170 $459,300 $537 $459,300 For-Rent (Dwelling Units)1,813 $23,232 95%37.5%4.75%$526 $290,394 Total Assessed Value $2,291 Source: Pro Forma Advisors Maintenance Service Costs Public Works and Recreation Expenditures In 2014 the City Council adopted a resolution to establish a community facilities district (“CFD”) for Millenia, which authorizes a special tax to fund all or a portion of the costs to maintain and service a variety of facilities including: ‣Street Frontage Maintenance ‣Park Maintenance ‣Bio-Retention Maintenance ‣Storm Water Maintenance Maintenance includes, but is not limited to, the “furnishing of services and materials for the ordinary and usual maintenance, operation, and servicing” within the CFD. The CFD tax also includes “Administrative Expenses” that represents the actual or estimated costs incurred by the City acting on behalf of the CFD area. As such, it is assumed that the CFD will cover the some of the costs associated with the new road network and urban parks. The following distributes the costs inputed into the “Maintenance Service Costs” tabs less the 20 percent “Admin/ Reserves” cost that is already included in the CFD for the park maintenance. Furthermore, the developer has formed a Master Community association in Millenia which will take over maintenance of a number of items normally covered by the City’s general fund including sidewalk maintenance, streetscape landscape maintenance and some lighting. As such, the estimates using the City’s ﬁscal model may overstate some of the costs associated with the project. Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 7 PFAID: 10-824.11 Figure 8 - Maintenance Service Inputs FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 Streets and Lighting Lane Miles (Cumulative) 3.4 7.1 7.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Parks Park Acres (Cumulative) 1.970 1.970 3.480 8.980 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.600 Source: Client Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 8 PFAID: 10-824.11 Appendix Proposed Amendment FIA Tables (excel model available upon request) The remainder of the page is intentionally blank Appendix Pro Forma Advisors, LLC Page 9 PFAID: 10-808.11 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Single Family Residential - 101 524 1,196 1,781 2,489 2,780 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 Multi-Family Residential 252 756 1,352 1,688 2,688 3,732 4,340 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 Subtotal (Per Capita)252 857 1,876 2,884 4,469 6,222 7,120 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 Employment Population 13 43 94 144 223 311 356 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 Totals 265 900 1,970 3,028 4,692 6,533 7,476 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 Single Family Residential - 36 187 427 636 889 993 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 Multi-Family Residential 90 270 483 603 960 1,333 1,550 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 Totals 90 306 670 1,030 1,596 2,222 2,543 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 Hotel 1 - # rooms - 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 Hotel 2 - # rooms - - - `- - - - - - - - - - - - - Totals - 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average*150.26$ 152.55$ 154.87$ 157.19$ 159.55$ 161.94$ 164.37$ 166.84$ 169.34$ 171.88$ 174.46$ 177.08$ 179.73$ 182.43$ 185.17$ 187.94$ 190.76$ Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned*-$ 140.00$ 142.10$ 144.23$ 146.39$ 148.59$ 150.82$ 153.08$ 155.38$ 157.71$ 160.07$ 162.48$ 164.91$ 167.39$ 169.90$ 172.45$ 175.03$ Average Hotel Occupancy*77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy*0.0%50.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0% Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% Absorption Rate 0%60%65%75%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV 33,192$ 240,798$ 621,092$ 1,064,097$ 1,598,111$ 2,204,377$ 2,504,026$ 2,671,010$ 2,724,430$ 2,778,919$ 2,834,497$ 2,943,508$ 3,002,378$ 3,062,425$ 3,123,674$ 3,186,147$ 3,358,181$ Library (.7% of 1% of AV)AV - Project 1,829$ 13,272$ 34,233$ 58,651$ 88,085$ 121,501$ 138,017$ 147,221$ 150,165$ 153,169$ 156,232$ 162,241$ 165,485$ 168,795$ 172,171$ 175,614$ 185,097$ Sales and Use Tax Per Capita 30,431 104,740 233,192 364,623 574,334 813,030 946,066 1,128,279 1,147,031 1,163,428 1,198,331 1,234,281 1,271,309 1,309,449 1,348,732 1,389,194 1,430,870 Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific - - 444,313 515,697 582,554 613,376 704,235 718,319 732,686 747,340 762,286 777,532 793,083 808,944 825,123 841,626 858,458 Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita - 13,459 37,271 57,540 89,371 124,920 143,515 168,969 169,573 170,422 175,535 180,801 186,225 191,812 197,566 203,493 209,598 Transient Occupancy Tax - Project On-Site - 206,955 318,590 373,118 504,953 512,527 520,215 528,018 535,939 543,978 552,137 560,419 568,826 577,358 586,018 594,809 603,731 Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Per Capita 19,259 65,320 144,765 225,342 353,660 498,843 578,545 688,141 697,610 707,582 728,809 750,674 773,194 796,390 820,281 844,890 870,237 Franchise Fees Per Capita 11,059 35,716 78,129 120,102 186,088 259,063 296,472 348,022 348,268 348,771 359,234 370,011 381,111 392,545 404,321 416,451 428,944 Other Taxes Per Capita - - 7,800 12,358 18,647 25,506 28,682 33,050 32,180 31,596 32,544 33,520 34,526 35,562 36,629 37,728 38,859 Subtotal Tax Revenues 95,771 680,261 1,919,385 2,791,528 3,995,803 5,173,144 5,859,774 6,431,031 6,537,882 6,645,204 6,799,606 7,012,986 7,176,137 7,343,279 7,514,515 7,689,951 7,983,974 Other Revenues Per Capita 854 5,155 11,294 16,870 26,016 35,422 40,364 46,330 46,418 45,446 46,809 48,214 49,660 51,150 52,684 54,265 55,893 Licenses and Permits Per Capita 1,409 4,291 9,434 14,561 22,649 31,649 36,351 42,787 42,930 43,068 44,360 45,691 47,061 48,473 49,928 51,425 52,968 Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita 994 3,396 7,441 11,448 17,752 24,942 28,561 33,794 33,807 34,084 35,107 36,160 37,245 38,362 39,513 40,699 41,920 Use of Money & Property Per Capita 2,237 7,563 16,410 25,004 38,564 53,447 60,663 70,858 70,298 70,018 72,119 74,282 76,511 78,806 81,170 83,606 86,114 Charges for Services No Forecast - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Intergovernmental Per Capita 1,803 6,328 13,752 20,988 32,290 44,644 50,750 59,139 58,760 58,657 60,417 62,229 64,096 66,019 67,999 70,039 72,141 Subtotal Other Revenues 6,442 21,578 47,037 72,001 111,255 154,683 176,325 206,579 205,795 205,828 212,002 218,363 224,913 231,661 238,611 245,769 253,142 Total General Fund Revenues 102,213$ 701,839$ 1,966,422$ 2,863,529$ 4,107,058$ 5,327,827$ 6,036,099$ 6,637,610$ 6,743,677$ 6,851,032$ 7,011,609$ 7,231,349$ 7,401,050$ 7,574,940$ 7,753,126$ 7,935,720$ 8,237,116$ General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita 2,847$ 9,024$ 20,663$ 32,846$ 53,915$ 78,090$ 92,384$ 112,401$ 115,093$ 114,508$ 116,174$ 117,888$ 119,653$ 121,474$ 123,344$ 126,359$ 129,474$ Community Development (20%)Per Capita 559 1,795 4,075 6,475 10,559 15,221 17,821 21,425 21,828 21,824 22,142 22,469 22,805 23,152 23,508 24,083 24,677 Public Works/Engineering Per Capita 2,111 6,831 18,864 29,968 48,711 72,400 84,765 101,909 103,824 103,808 105,319 106,872 108,472 110,123 111,819 114,551 117,376 Maintenance Costs Project Specific 105,456 193,311 219,672 334,161 365,953 373,272 380,738 388,353 396,120 404,042 412,123 420,365 428,773 437,348 446,095 455,017 464,117 PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ 6,795 23,103 23,565 24,037 24,517 25,008 25,508 26,018 26,538 27,069 27,610 28,163 28,726 29,300 29,886 30,484 31,094 Building Management System 4.10 1,050 3,570 3,642 3,715 3,789 3,865 3,942 4,021 4,101 4,183 4,267 4,352 4,439 4,528 4,619 4,711 4,805 Parks Management System 15.68 4,020 13,667 13,940 14,219 14,503 14,793 15,089 15,391 15,699 16,013 16,333 16,660 16,993 17,333 17,679 18,033 18,394 Open Space Management System 6.72 1,723 5,857 5,974 6,094 6,216 6,340 6,467 6,596 6,728 6,863 7,000 7,140 7,283 7,428 7,577 7,728 7,883 Fleet Management System 3.73 957 3,254 3,319 3,385 3,453 3,522 3,593 3,664 3,738 3,813 3,889 3,967 4,046 4,127 4,209 4,294 4,379 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 3,637 12,365 12,612 12,865 13,122 13,384 13,652 13,925 14,204 14,488 14,777 15,073 15,374 15,682 15,996 16,315 16,642 General Govt Management System 0.65 167 569 581 592 604 616 629 641 654 667 681 694 708 722 737 751 766 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 1,723 5,857 5,974 6,094 6,216 6,340 6,467 6,596 6,728 6,863 7,000 7,140 7,283 7,428 7,577 7,728 7,883 78.28$ 20,071 68,243 69,608 71,000 72,420 73,868 75,346 76,853 78,390 79,958 81,557 83,188 84,852 86,549 88,280 90,045 91,846 Community Services Per Capita 4,072 13,294 29,892 47,474 76,837 109,591 128,308 154,258 157,157 157,133 159,420 161,771 164,193 166,692 169,259 173,395 177,670 Library Per Capita (Project)1,140 3,885 8,528 13,147 20,437 28,550 32,796 38,622 38,785 38,957 39,140 39,332 39,534 39,745 39,965 40,544 41,141 Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific 77,540 384,703 715,884 1,081,313 1,675,586 2,360,214 2,796,110 3,366,729 3,493,954 3,625,935 3,716,584 3,810,507 3,905,770 4,003,414 4,103,500 4,103,500 4,105,538 Fire Services Project Specific 30,280 145,841 304,804 481,219 735,944 1,027,229 1,193,138 1,417,179 1,445,417 1,474,326 1,518,556 1,564,388 1,611,320 1,659,659 1,709,449 1,709,449 1,710,015 Animal Control Services Per Capita 2,834 9,250 20,799 33,033 53,463 76,328 89,341 107,380 109,385 109,381 110,973 112,609 114,295 116,035 117,821 120,701 123,677 Total Public Safety 110,654 539,794 1,041,486 1,595,565 2,464,993 3,463,770 4,078,589 4,891,289 5,048,756 5,209,642 5,346,112 5,487,505 5,631,385 5,779,109 5,930,770 5,933,650 5,939,229 Total General Fund Expenditures 246,910$ 836,177$ 1,412,787$ 2,130,636$ 3,113,824$ 4,214,763$ 4,890,746$ 5,785,110$ 5,959,952$ 6,129,873$ 6,281,986$ 6,439,390$ 6,599,666$ 6,764,191$ 6,933,040$ 6,957,644$ 6,985,530$ Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall)($144,697)($134,338)$553,635 $732,893 $993,234 $1,113,064 $1,145,353 $852,500 $783,725 $721,159 $729,623 $791,959 $801,384 $810,749 $820,086 $978,076 $1,251,586 Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) Year Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Subtotal (Per Capita) Employment Population Totals Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Totals Hotel 1 - # rooms Hotel 2 - # rooms Totals Average Hotel Daily Rate - San Diego County Average* Average Hotel Daily Rate - Developer Assigned* Average Hotel Occupancy* Developer Provided Hotel Occupancy* Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (per room night) Absorption Rate Year General Fund Revenues Tax Revenues Property Tax AV Library (.7% of 1% of AV)AV - Project Sales and Use Tax Per Capita Sales and Use Tax - Project Specific Project Specific Transient Occupancy Tax Per Capita Transient Occupancy Tax - Project On-Site Motor Vehicle In-Lieu of VLF Per Capita Franchise Fees Per Capita Other Taxes Per Capita Subtotal Tax Revenues Other Revenues Per Capita Licenses and Permits Per Capita Fines, forfeitures, penalties Per Capita Use of Money & Property Per Capita Charges for Services No Forecast Intergovernmental Per Capita Subtotal Other Revenues Total General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures General Government Per Capita Community Development (20%)Per Capita Public Works/Engineering Per Capita Maintenance Costs Project Specific PC/EMP Base Drainage Management System 26.50$ Building Management System 4.10 Parks Management System 15.68 Open Space Management System 6.72 Fleet Management System 3.73 Pavement Annual (PMP)14.18 General Govt Management System 0.65 Urban Forestry Management System 6.72 78.28$ Community Services Per Capita Library Per Capita (Project) Public Safety: Police Services Project Specific Fire Services Project Specific Animal Control Services Per Capita Total Public Safety Total General Fund Expenditures Projected Net Revenues/(Shortfall) Population Number of Homes Transient Occupancy Tax (Project Specific) 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 418 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 8,770 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 2,983 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 193.62$ 196.53$ 199.48$ 202.47$ 205.50$ 208.59$ 211.72$ 214.89$ 218.12$ 221.39$ 224.71$ 228.08$ 231.50$ 177.66$ 180.32$ 183.03$ 185.77$ 188.56$ 191.39$ 194.26$ 197.17$ 200.13$ 203.13$ 206.18$ 209.27$ 212.41$ 77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1%77.1% 70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0% 10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3,425,345$ 3,493,851$ 3,664,672$ 3,737,966$ 4,012,031$ 4,092,272$ 4,174,117$ 4,257,600$ 4,554,173$ 4,869,708$ 4,967,102$ 5,066,444$ 5,167,773$ 188,799$ 192,574$ 201,990$ 206,030$ 221,136$ 225,558$ 230,069$ 234,671$ 251,017$ 268,409$ 273,777$ 279,253$ 284,838$ 1,473,796 1,518,010 1,563,550 1,610,456 1,658,770 1,708,533 1,759,789 1,812,583 1,866,960 1,922,969 1,980,658 2,040,078 2,101,280 875,627 893,140 1,623,605 1,656,077 1,689,199 1,722,983 1,757,442 1,792,591 1,828,443 1,865,012 1,902,312 1,940,358 1,979,166 215,886 222,362 229,033 235,904 242,981 250,271 257,779 265,512 273,477 281,682 290,132 298,836 307,801 612,787 621,979 631,308 640,778 650,390 660,145 670,048 680,098 690,300 700,654 711,164 721,832 732,659 896,344 923,234 950,931 979,459 1,008,843 1,039,108 1,070,281 1,102,390 1,135,461 1,169,525 1,204,611 1,240,749 1,277,972 441,812 455,067 468,719 482,780 497,264 512,182 527,547 543,374 559,675 576,465 593,759 611,572 629,919 40,025 41,226 42,463 43,737 45,049 46,400 47,792 49,226 50,703 52,224 53,791 55,404 57,066 8,170,420 8,361,443 9,376,271 9,593,187 10,025,662 10,257,452 10,494,865 10,738,044 11,210,210 11,706,648 11,977,306 12,254,526 12,538,474 57,569 59,297 61,075 62,908 64,795 66,739 68,741 70,803 72,927 75,115 77,369 79,690 82,080 54,557 56,194 57,880 59,616 61,405 63,247 65,144 67,098 69,111 71,185 73,320 75,520 77,785 43,177 44,472 45,807 47,181 48,596 50,054 51,556 53,102 54,695 56,336 58,026 59,767 61,560 88,697 91,358 94,099 96,922 99,829 102,824 105,909 109,086 112,359 115,730 119,202 122,778 126,461 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 74,305 76,534 78,830 81,195 83,631 86,140 88,724 91,386 94,127 96,951 99,859 102,855 105,941 260,736 268,558 276,615 284,914 293,461 302,265 311,333 320,673 330,293 340,202 350,408 360,920 371,748 8,431,156$ 8,630,001$ 9,652,886$ 9,878,100$ 10,319,123$ 10,559,717$ 10,806,198$ 11,058,717$ 11,540,503$ 12,046,850$ 12,327,714$ 12,615,446$ 12,910,221$ 132,662$ 135,936$ 139,316$ 142,798$ 146,388$ 150,061$ 153,845$ 157,740$ 161,748$ 165,878$ 170,130$ 174,480$ 178,949$ 25,284 25,908 26,553 27,216 27,900 28,600 29,322 30,064 30,828 31,615 32,426 33,255 34,106 120,266 123,234 126,298 129,455 132,709 136,039 139,470 143,000 146,634 150,378 154,233 158,177 162,228 473,400 482,868 492,525 502,375 512,423 522,671 533,125 543,787 554,663 565,756 577,071 588,613 600,385 31,716 32,350 32,997 33,657 34,330 35,017 35,717 36,431 37,160 37,903 38,661 39,435 40,223 4,901 4,999 5,099 5,201 5,305 5,411 5,520 5,630 5,743 5,858 5,975 6,094 6,216 18,761 19,137 19,519 19,910 20,308 20,714 21,128 21,551 21,982 22,422 22,870 23,327 23,794 8,041 8,201 8,365 8,533 8,703 8,877 9,055 9,236 9,421 9,609 9,801 9,997 10,197 4,467 4,556 4,647 4,740 4,835 4,932 5,031 5,131 5,234 5,338 5,445 5,554 5,665 16,975 17,314 17,660 18,014 18,374 18,741 19,116 19,498 19,888 20,286 20,692 21,106 21,528 782 797 813 830 846 863 880 898 916 934 953 972 991 8,041 8,201 8,365 8,533 8,703 8,877 9,055 9,236 9,421 9,609 9,801 9,997 10,197 93,683 95,557 97,468 99,417 101,406 103,434 105,502 107,612 109,765 111,960 114,199 116,483 118,813 182,046 186,538 191,176 195,954 200,880 205,920 211,113 216,458 221,959 227,625 233,460 239,430 245,563 41,744 42,360 42,991 43,638 44,300 44,972 45,658 46,359 47,075 47,809 48,559 49,316 50,088 4,105,538 4,105,538 4,265,747 4,265,747 4,269,144 4,269,144 4,269,144 4,269,144 4,272,472 4,275,937 4,275,937 4,275,937 4,275,937 1,710,015 1,710,015 1,758,098 1,758,098 1,759,040 1,759,040 1,759,040 1,759,040 1,759,964 1,760,925 1,760,925 1,760,925 1,760,925 126,722 129,850 133,078 136,404 139,833 143,342 146,957 150,677 154,506 158,451 162,513 166,668 170,937 5,942,275 5,945,402 6,156,923 6,160,249 6,168,017 6,171,526 6,175,141 6,178,861 6,186,942 6,195,313 6,199,375 6,203,530 6,207,799 7,011,360$ 7,037,803$ 7,273,249$ 7,301,102$ 7,334,022$ 7,363,223$ 7,393,176$ 7,423,881$ 7,459,615$ 7,496,335$ 7,529,452$ 7,563,284$ 7,597,932$ $1,419,796 $1,592,198 $2,379,637 $2,576,998 $2,985,101 $3,196,494 $3,413,022 $3,634,836 $4,080,888 $4,550,515 $4,798,262 $5,052,162 $5,312,290 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes Total Cumulative SFR Units 1,170 - 36 187 427 636 889 993 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 - 101 524 1,196 1,781 2,489 2,780 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 Percentage Complete 0%4%19%43%64%89%99%100%100%100%100% Constructed Assessed Values $537,381,000 $0 $19,345,716 $100,490,247 $229,461,687 $341,774,316 $477,731,709 $533,619,333 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 Multi-Family Attached Apartments Total Cumulative MFR Units 1,813 90 270 483 603 960 1,333 1,550 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 Total Cumulative Residents 2.80 252 756 1,352 1,688 2,688 3,732 4,340 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 Percentage Complete 5%15%27%33%53%74%85%100%100%100%100% Constructed Assessed Values $526,484,322 $26,135,460 $78,406,380 $140,260,302 $175,107,582 $278,778,240 $387,095,202 $450,110,700 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 Total Cumulative Residents 252 857 1,876 2,884 4,469 6,222 7,120 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 Commercial Percentage Complete 0%33%38%44%48%50%56%56%56%56%56% Constructed Assessed Values 124,309,871$ -$ 41,065,058$ 47,633,969$ 54,202,880$ 60,029,394$ 61,966,110$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ Industrial Percentage Complete 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Constructed Assessed Values -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Office Percentage Complete 0%0%13%27%41%57%62%62%62%62%62% Constructed Assessed Values 1,056,122,047$ -$ -$ 134,603,790$ 283,703,373$ 434,873,784$ 598,241,369$ 650,239,849$ 650,239,849$ 650,239,849$ 650,239,849$ 650,239,849$ Hotel Percentage Complete 0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% Constructed Assessed Values 47,070,000$ -$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions 26,135,460$ 185,887,154$ 470,058,308$ 789,545,523$ 1,162,525,734$ 1,572,104,390$ 1,750,789,993$ 1,830,925,282$ 1,830,925,282$ 1,830,925,282$ 1,830,925,282$ Inflation Factor 2.00%100.00%102.00%104.04%106.12%108.24%110.41%112.62%114.87%117.17%119.51%121.90% Total AV - Inflated $26,135,460 $189,604,897 $489,048,664 $837,872,025 $1,258,355,241 $1,735,730,278 $1,971,673,894 $2,103,157,630 $2,145,220,782 $2,188,125,198 $2,231,887,702 Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation)$26,135,460 $189,604,897 $489,048,664 $837,872,025 $1,258,355,241 $1,735,730,278 $1,971,673,894 $2,103,157,630 $2,145,220,782 $2,188,125,198 $2,231,887,702 Prior Years AV Inflation Factor 2.00%0.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% Prior Years AV Inflation Amount $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated $26,135,460 $189,604,897 $489,048,664 $837,872,025 $1,258,355,241 $1,735,730,278 $1,971,673,894 $2,103,157,630 $2,145,220,782 $2,188,125,198 $2,231,887,702 Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem 1.00%261,355$ 1,896,049$ 4,890,487$ 8,378,720$ 12,583,552$ 17,357,303$ 19,716,739$ 21,031,576$ 21,452,208$ 21,881,252$ 22,318,877$ Total AV Tax Due to City 12.70%$33,192 $240,798 $621,092 $1,064,097 $1,598,111 $2,204,377 $2,504,026 $2,671,010 $2,724,430 $2,778,919 $2,834,497 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Attached Apartments Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 56%56%56%56%56%56%56%56%100%100%100%100% 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 69,750,111$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 65%65%65%65%65%71%71%71%71%71%80%80% 683,373,089$ 683,373,089$ 683,373,089$ 683,373,089$ 683,373,089$ 745,497,916$ 745,497,916$ 745,497,916$ 745,497,916$ 745,497,916$ 849,039,293$ 849,039,293$ 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 1,864,058,522$ 1,864,058,522$ 1,864,058,522$ 1,864,058,522$ 1,864,058,522$ 1,926,183,349$ 1,926,183,349$ 1,926,183,349$ 1,980,743,108$ 1,980,743,108$ 2,084,284,486$ 2,084,284,486$ 124.34%126.82%129.36%131.95%134.59%137.28%140.02%142.82%145.68%148.59%151.57%154.60% $2,317,722,476 $2,364,076,926 $2,411,358,464 $2,459,585,633 $2,508,777,346 $2,644,236,967 $2,697,121,706 $2,751,064,140 $2,885,568,690 $2,943,280,064 $3,159,079,846 $3,222,261,443 $2,317,722,476 $2,364,076,926 $2,411,358,464 $2,459,585,633 $2,508,777,346 $2,644,236,967 $2,697,121,706 $2,751,064,140 $2,885,568,690 $2,943,280,064 $3,159,079,846 $3,222,261,443 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,317,722,476 $2,364,076,926 $2,411,358,464 $2,459,585,633 $2,508,777,346 $2,644,236,967 $2,697,121,706 $2,751,064,140 $2,885,568,690 $2,943,280,064 $3,159,079,846 $3,222,261,443 23,177,225$ 23,640,769$ 24,113,585$ 24,595,856$ 25,087,773$ 26,442,370$ 26,971,217$ 27,510,641$ 28,855,687$ 29,432,801$ 31,590,798$ 32,222,614$ $2,943,508 $3,002,378 $3,062,425 $3,123,674 $3,186,147 $3,358,181 $3,425,345 $3,493,851 $3,664,672 $3,737,966 $4,012,031 $4,092,272 Year Property Tax Analysis Residential Units Multi-Family Residential - Attached Townhomes Total Cumulative SFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Multi-Family Attached Apartments Total Cumulative MFR Units Total Cumulative Residents Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Total Cumulative Residents Commercial Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Industrial Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Office Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Hotel Percentage Complete Constructed Assessed Values Constructed Assessed Values Total Current Period Assessed Value Additions Inflation Factor Total AV - Inflated Cumulative AV (w/o Prior Years Inflation) Prior Years AV Inflation Factor Prior Years AV Inflation Amount Cumulative Residential AV - Inflated Property Tax Revenue Estimate Ad-Valorem Total AV Tax Due to City 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 100%100%100%100%100%100%100% $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 $537,381,000 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 5,076 100%100%100%100%100%100%100% $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 $526,484,322 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 8,352 100%100%100%100%100%100%100% 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 124,309,871$ 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 80%80%90%100%100%100%100% 849,039,293$ 849,039,293$ 950,509,842$ 1,056,122,047$ 1,056,122,047$ 1,056,122,047$ 1,056,122,047$ 100%100%100%100%100%100%100% 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 47,070,000$ 2,084,284,486$ 2,084,284,486$ 2,185,755,035$ 2,291,367,240$ 2,291,367,240$ 2,291,367,240$ 2,291,367,240$ 157.69%160.84%164.06%167.34%170.69%174.10%177.58% $3,286,706,672 $3,352,440,805 $3,585,962,813 $3,834,415,446 $3,911,103,755 $3,989,325,830 $4,069,112,346 $3,286,706,672 $3,352,440,805 $3,585,962,813 $3,834,415,446 $3,911,103,755 $3,989,325,830 $4,069,112,346 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,286,706,672 $3,352,440,805 $3,585,962,813 $3,834,415,446 $3,911,103,755 $3,989,325,830 $4,069,112,346 32,867,067$ 33,524,408$ 35,859,628$ 38,344,154$ 39,111,038$ 39,893,258$ 40,691,123$ $4,174,117 $4,257,600 $4,554,173 $4,869,708 $4,967,102 $5,066,444 $5,167,773 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 POPULATION 272,736 277,555 282,375 287,195 292,015 296,835 301,655 306,475 311,295 316,115 320,935 325,755 330,575 335,395 340,215 342,066 343,844 345,651 347,440 CHANGE IN POPULATION 4,819 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 4,820 1,851 1,778 1,807 1,789 2.8 # of DU 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 1,721 661 635 645 639 FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 117 113 115 114 FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,415 544 522 530 525 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS)- 36 187 427 636 889 993 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS)90 270 483 603 960 1,333 1,550 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 62.90 COMMERCIAL (ACRES)- 20.78 24.10 27.43 30.37 31.35 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 27.69 OFFICE (ACRES)- - 3.53 7.44 11.40 15.69 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.92 17.92 17.92 17.92 17.92 19.55 19.55 19.55 5.66 HOTEL (ACRES)- 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 798.08$ 798.08$ 850.52$ 839.71$ 870.79$ 903.71$ 937.05$ 971.88$ 1,008.63$ 1,046.74$ 1,086.28$ 1,113.44$ 1,141.28$ 1,169.81$ 1,199.05$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 861.56$ 861.56$ 918.17$ 906.49$ 940.05$ 975.59$ 1,011.58$ 1,049.18$ 1,088.85$ 1,130.00$ 1,172.68$ 1,202.00$ 1,232.05$ 1,262.85$ 1,294.42$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 3,768.38$ 3,768.38$ 4,016.02$ 3,964.93$ 4,111.71$ 4,267.17$ 4,424.58$ 4,589.04$ 4,762.56$ 4,942.53$ 5,129.23$ 5,257.46$ 5,388.89$ 5,523.62$ 5,661.71$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ POLICE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 812.45$ 812.45$ 865.84$ 854.83$ 886.47$ 919.99$ 953.93$ 989.38$ 1,026.79$ 1,065.59$ 1,105.85$ 1,133.49$ 1,161.83$ 1,190.87$ 1,220.65$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 77,540$ 384,703$ 715,884$ 1,081,313$ 1,675,586$ 2,360,214$ 2,796,110$ 3,366,729$ 3,493,954$ 3,625,935$ 3,716,584$ 3,810,507$ 3,905,770$ 4,003,414$ 4,103,500$ 4,103,500$ 4,105,538$ 4,105,538$ 4,105,538$ EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 467.29$ 467.29$ 485.74$ 495.42$ 505.23$ 515.22$ 525.49$ 535.96$ 546.64$ 557.53$ 568.68$ 585.74$ 603.32$ 621.42$ 640.06$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 336.44$ 336.44$ 349.73$ 356.70$ 363.76$ 370.96$ 378.35$ 385.89$ 393.58$ 401.42$ 409.45$ 421.73$ 434.38$ 447.42$ 460.84$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,234.54$ 1,234.54$ 1,283.28$ 1,308.86$ 1,334.77$ 1,361.18$ 1,388.30$ 1,415.97$ 1,444.18$ 1,472.96$ 1,502.42$ 1,547.49$ 1,593.92$ 1,641.73$ 1,690.99$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ FIRE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 246.05$ 246.05$ 255.76$ 260.86$ 266.03$ 271.29$ 276.70$ 282.21$ 287.83$ 293.57$ 299.44$ 308.42$ 317.68$ 327.21$ 337.02$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC 30,280$ 145,841$ 304,804$ 481,219$ 735,944$ 1,027,229$ 1,193,138$ 1,417,179$ 1,445,417$ 1,474,326$ 1,518,556$ 1,564,388$ 1,611,320$ 1,659,659$ 1,709,449$ 1,709,449$ 1,710,015$ 1,710,015$ 1,710,015$ POPULATION PER DU FACTOR POPULATION CHANGE IN POPULATION 2.8 # of DU FUTURE SFR 4,854 SFR FUTURE MFR 22,467 MFR 27,321 DEVELOPER SFR (UNITS) DEVELOPER MFR (UNITS) 62.90 COMMERCIAL (ACRES) 27.69 OFFICE (ACRES) 5.66 HOTEL (ACRES) EXISTING DU POLICE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 798.08$ POLICE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 861.56$ EXISTING ACRES POLICE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 3,768.38$ POLICE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 812.45$ POLICE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC EXISTING DU FIRE Single Family Units 36,084 PER DU 467.29$ FIRE Multi-Family Units 27,814 PER DU 336.44$ EXISTING ACRES FIRE Commercial Acres 936 PER ACRE 1,234.54$ FIRE Industrial Acres 834 PER ACRE 246.05$ FIRE COSTS - PROJECT SPECIFIC POPULATION PER DU FACTOR 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 349,185 350,894 352,560 354,241 355,895 357,524 359,126 360,683 362,220 363,786 365,344 1,746 1,708 1,667 1,681 1,654 1,629 1,601 1,557 1,537 1,567 1,558 623 610 595 600 591 582 572 556 549 559 556 111 108 106 107 105 103 102 99 98 99 99 512 502 489 493 486 479 470 457 451 460 457 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 62.90 19.55 19.55 22.26 22.26 22.26 22.26 24.92 27.69 27.69 27.69 27.69 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,229.03$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 1,326.78$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 5,803.25$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 1,251.16$ 4,265,747$ 4,265,747$ 4,269,144$ 4,269,144$ 4,269,144$ 4,269,144$ 4,272,472$ 4,275,937$ 4,275,937$ 4,275,937$ 4,275,937$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 659.26$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 474.66$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 1,741.72$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 347.13$ 1,758,098$ 1,758,098$ 1,759,040$ 1,759,040$ 1,759,040$ 1,759,040$ 1,759,964$ 1,760,925$ 1,760,925$ 1,760,925$ 1,760,925$ Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Sales Tax Analysis - Project Specific Total (Square Feet) Small Format - - 20,873 41,746 41,746 47,900 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 Large Format - 130,486 130,486 130,486 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 149,000 Totals - 130,486 151,359 172,232 190,746 196,900 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 221,634 Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet)Absorption Small Format 90%- - 18,786 37,571 37,571 43,110 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 Large Format 90%- 117,437 117,437 117,437 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 134,100 Occupied Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet)Occupancy Rate Small Format 95%- - 17,846 35,693 35,693 40,955 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 Large Format 95%- - 111,566 111,566 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 127,395 Taxable Sales Projected (Estimate)Sales PSF 330$ 337$ 343$ 350$ 357$ 364$ 372$ 379$ 387$ 394$ 402$ 410$ 419$ 427$ 435$ 444$ 453$ 462$ Small Format 350.00$ -$ -$ 6,127,245$ 12,499,581$ 12,749,572$ 14,921,635$ 23,079,216$ 23,540,800$ 24,011,616$ 24,491,848$ 24,981,685$ 25,481,319$ 25,990,945$ 26,510,764$ 27,040,980$ 27,581,799$ 28,133,435$ 28,696,104$ Large Format 325.00$ - - 38,304,017 39,070,097 45,505,827 46,415,943 47,344,262 48,291,148 49,256,970 50,242,110 51,246,952 52,271,891 53,317,329 54,383,676 55,471,349 56,580,776 57,712,392 58,866,639 Total Taxable Retail Sales Estimated -$ -$ 44,431,262$ 51,569,677$ 58,255,399$ 61,337,579$ 70,423,478$ 71,831,948$ 73,268,587$ 74,733,958$ 76,228,637$ 77,753,210$ 79,308,274$ 80,894,440$ 82,512,329$ 84,162,575$ 85,845,827$ 87,562,743$ Annual Sales Taxes to the City Small Format 1.00%-$ -$ 61,272$ 124,996$ 127,496$ 149,216$ 230,792$ 235,408$ 240,116$ 244,918$ 249,817$ 254,813$ 259,909$ 265,108$ 270,410$ 275,818$ 281,334$ 286,961$ Large Format 1.00%- - 383,040 390,701 455,058 464,159 473,443 482,911 492,570 502,421 512,470 522,719 533,173 543,837 554,713 565,808 577,124 588,666 Growth Percentage - Estimated -$ -$ 444,313$ 515,697$ 582,554$ 613,376$ 704,235$ 718,319$ 732,686$ 747,340$ 762,286$ 777,532$ 793,083$ 808,944$ 825,123$ 841,626$ 858,458$ 875,627$ Total Annual Sales Taxes to the City Year Sales Tax Analysis - Project Specific Total (Square Feet) Small Format Large Format Totals Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet)Absorption Small Format 90% Large Format 90% Occupied Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet)Occupancy Rate Small Format 95% Large Format 95% Taxable Sales Projected (Estimate)Sales PSF Small Format 350.00$ Large Format 325.00$ Total Taxable Retail Sales Estimated Annual Sales Taxes to the City Small Format 1.00% Large Format 1.00% Growth Percentage - Estimated Total Annual Sales Taxes to the City 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 72,634 149,000 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 322,366 221,634 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 395,000 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 65,371 134,100 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 290,129 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 62,102 127,395 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 275,623 471$ 481$ 490$ 500$ 510$ 520$ 531$ 541$ 552$ 563$ 575$ 586$ 29,270,026$ 29,855,427$ 30,452,535$ 31,061,586$ 31,682,817$ 32,316,474$ 32,962,803$ 33,622,059$ 34,294,501$ 34,980,391$ 35,679,998$ 36,393,598$ 60,043,972 132,505,086 135,155,188 137,858,292 140,615,457 143,427,767 146,296,322 149,222,248 152,206,693 155,250,827 158,355,844 161,522,961 89,313,998$ 162,360,513$ 165,607,723$ 168,919,877$ 172,298,275$ 175,744,240$ 179,259,125$ 182,844,308$ 186,501,194$ 190,231,218$ 194,035,842$ 197,916,559$ 292,700$ 298,554$ 304,525$ 310,616$ 316,828$ 323,165$ 329,628$ 336,221$ 342,945$ 349,804$ 356,800$ 363,936$ 600,440 1,325,051 1,351,552 1,378,583 1,406,155 1,434,278 1,462,963 1,492,222 1,522,067 1,552,508 1,583,558 1,615,230 893,140$ 1,623,605$ 1,656,077$ 1,689,199$ 1,722,983$ 1,757,442$ 1,792,591$ 1,828,443$ 1,865,012$ 1,902,312$ 1,940,358$ 1,979,166$ Description 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 POLICE COSTS - BASE MODEL 56,965,945 59,949,430 58,327,199 59,606,056 60,916,106 62,175,703 63,461,731 Police Officer Funding (5/yr) - 760,000 1,610,000 2,550,000 3,590,000 4,710,000 5,910,000 Updated POLICE COSTS 56,965,945 60,709,430 59,937,199 62,156,056 64,506,106 66,885,703 69,371,731 FIRE COSTS - BASE MODEL 27,580,234 28,669,066 29,240,512 29,819,340 30,409,445 31,015,435 31,633,479 4.0 Truck Staffing for Millenia - - 985,000 1,040,000 2,190,000 2,300,000 2,410,000 Fire Station Supplies and Services - - 160,000 160,000 320,000 320,000 320,000 Updated Fire Costs 27,580,234 28,669,066 30,385,512 31,019,340 32,919,445 33,635,435 34,363,479 Description POLICE COSTS - BASE MODEL Police Officer Funding (5/yr) Updated POLICE COSTS FIRE COSTS - BASE MODEL 4.0 Truck Staffing for Millenia Fire Station Supplies and Services Updated Fire Costs 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 64,774,754 66,115,351 67,437,658 69,460,788 71,544,612 73,690,950 75,901,679 7,220,000 8,600,000 10,100,000 10,403,000 10,715,090 11,036,543 11,367,639 71,994,754 74,715,351 77,537,658 79,863,788 82,259,702 84,727,493 87,269,318 32,263,817 32,906,691 33,564,824 34,571,769 35,608,922 36,677,190 37,777,506 2,525,000 2,635,000 2,755,000 2,837,650 2,922,780 3,010,463 3,100,777 320,000 320,000 320,000 329,600 339,488 349,673 360,163 35,108,817 35,861,691 36,639,824 37,739,019 38,871,190 40,037,325 41,238,445 Description POLICE COSTS - BASE MODEL Police Officer Funding (5/yr) Updated POLICE COSTS FIRE COSTS - BASE MODEL 4.0 Truck Staffing for Millenia Fire Station Supplies and Services Updated Fire Costs 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 78,178,729 80,524,091 82,939,814 85,428,008 87,990,848 90,630,574 93,349,491 11,708,668 12,059,928 12,421,726 12,794,378 13,178,209 13,573,555 13,980,762 89,887,397 92,584,019 95,361,540 98,222,386 101,169,057 104,204,129 107,330,253 38,910,831 40,078,156 41,280,500 42,518,915 43,794,483 45,108,317 46,461,567 3,193,800 3,289,614 3,388,302 3,489,952 3,594,650 3,702,490 3,813,564 370,968 382,097 393,560 405,366 417,527 430,053 442,955 42,475,599 43,749,866 45,062,362 46,414,233 47,806,660 49,240,860 50,718,086 Description POLICE COSTS - BASE MODEL Police Officer Funding (5/yr) Updated POLICE COSTS FIRE COSTS - BASE MODEL 4.0 Truck Staffing for Millenia Fire Station Supplies and Services Updated Fire Costs 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 96,149,976 99,034,475 102,005,509 105,065,674 108,217,645 111,464,174 114,808,099 118,252,342 14,400,185 14,832,191 15,277,156 15,735,471 16,207,535 16,693,761 17,194,574 17,710,411 110,550,160 113,866,665 117,282,665 120,801,145 124,425,180 128,157,935 132,002,673 135,962,753 47,855,414 49,291,076 50,769,808 52,292,903 53,861,690 55,477,541 57,141,867 58,856,123 3,927,971 4,045,810 4,167,185 4,292,200 4,420,966 4,553,595 4,690,203 4,830,909 456,243 469,931 484,029 498,550 513,506 528,911 544,779 561,122 52,239,629 53,806,817 55,421,022 57,083,653 58,796,162 60,560,047 62,376,848 64,248,154 Description POLICE COSTS - BASE MODEL Police Officer Funding (5/yr) Updated POLICE COSTS FIRE COSTS - BASE MODEL 4.0 Truck Staffing for Millenia Fire Station Supplies and Services Updated Fire Costs 30 121,799,912 18,241,723 140,041,636 60,621,806 4,975,836 577,956 66,175,598 Table - Public Safety Costs by Land Use Dwelling Type Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CV / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU 56,965,945$ Single Family Units 123,906,773 36,084 3,434 4,854 16,667,871 14.957%50.55%28,797,864$ 798$ Multi-Family Units 103,105,371 27,814 3,707 22,467 83,283,023 74.735%42.07%23,963,294$ 862$ Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 15,176,274 936 16,214 518 8,405,596 7.543%6.19%3,527,202$ 3,768$ Industrial Acres 2,915,398 834 3,496 882 3,081,488 2.765%1.19%677,584$ 812$ Citywide Total 245,103,815 Dwelling Type Calls for Service (CFS) (1) Existing EDUs (2) Existing CFS / DU Future EDUs (3) Projected Future CFS Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER EDU $ 27,580,234 Single Family Units 3,893 36084 0.10789218 4854 523.708639 21.230%61.137%16,861,629$ 467.29$ Multi-Family Units 2,161 27814 0.07768169 22466.6667 1745.248693 70.749%33.930%9,357,870$ 336.44$ 6,054 Land Use Call Volume (CV) (1) Existing Acres (2) Existing CV / Acre Future Acres (3) Projected Future CV Future SDF (4)% OF CV COSTS COST PER ACRE Commercial Acres 267 936 0.28504274 518.417 147.7709996 5.990%4.190%1,155,529$ 1,234.54$ Industrial Acres 47 834 0.05681055 881.513 50.07923974 2.030%0.744%205,206$ 246.05$ 314 6,368 (1) Calls for Service include all calls for service responded to by the Fire Department during a one-year period. (2) Existing development data is per General Plan Update Fiscal Model. (3) Future development data is per March 2006 PFDIF Update - Development Forecast. (4) SDF - Service Demand Factor Police Calls for Service by Land Use Fire Calls for Service by Land Use Maintenance Costs - Project Specific YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Streets & Lighting Lane miles 3.4 7.1 7.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Cost per unit 22,720$ 23,174$ 23,638$ 24,111$ 24,593$ 25,085$ 25,586$ 26,098$ 26,620$ 27,153$ 27,696$ 28,249$ 28,814$ 29,391$ 29,979$ 30,578$ 31,190$ Growth Factor 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% Extended Cost 77,248$ 164,538$ 167,829$ 197,707$ 201,661$ 205,695$ 209,809$ 214,005$ 218,285$ 222,651$ 227,104$ 231,646$ 236,279$ 241,004$ 245,824$ 250,741$ 255,755$ Parks Acres 2.90 2.90 5.13 13.24 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 Less: Acres by CFD 1.97 1.97 3.48 8.98 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 Net Acres 0.93 0.93 1.65 4.26 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 Cost per unit 30,175$ 30,779$ 31,394$ 32,022$ 32,662$ 33,316$ 33,982$ 34,662$ 35,355$ 36,062$ 36,783$ 37,519$ 38,269$ 39,035$ 39,815$ 40,612$ 41,424$ Growth Factor 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% Extended Cost 28,208$ 28,772$ 51,843$ 136,454$ 164,292$ 167,578$ 170,929$ 174,348$ 177,835$ 181,391$ 185,019$ 188,720$ 192,494$ 196,344$ 200,271$ 204,276$ 208,362$ Total Maintenance Costs 105,456$ 193,311$ 219,672$ 334,161$ 365,953$ 373,272$ 380,738$ 388,353$ 396,120$ 404,042$ 412,123$ 420,365$ 428,773$ 437,348$ 446,095$ 455,017$ 464,117$ Maintenance Costs - Project Specific YEAR Streets & Lighting Lane miles Cost per unit Growth Factor Extended Cost Parks Acres Less: Acres by CFD Net Acres Cost per unit Growth Factor Extended Cost Total Maintenance Costs 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 31,813$ 32,450$ 33,099$ 33,761$ 34,436$ 35,125$ 35,827$ 36,544$ 37,275$ 38,020$ 38,780$ 39,556$ 40,347$ 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% 260,871$ 266,088$ 271,410$ 276,838$ 282,375$ 288,022$ 293,783$ 299,658$ 305,651$ 311,764$ 318,000$ 324,360$ 330,847$ 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 15.63 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 42,252$ 43,097$ 43,959$ 44,838$ 45,735$ 46,650$ 47,583$ 48,535$ 49,505$ 50,495$ 51,505$ 52,535$ 53,586$ 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% 212,529$ 216,780$ 221,115$ 225,537$ 230,048$ 234,649$ 239,342$ 244,129$ 249,012$ 253,992$ 259,072$ 264,253$ 269,538$ 473,400$ 482,868$ 492,525$ 502,375$ 512,423$ 522,671$ 533,125$ 543,787$ 554,663$ 565,756$ 577,071$ 588,613$ 600,385$ Existing Library Square Feet 102,000 Current Budget 3,916,621$ Cost Per Square Foot 38.40$ Library - Project Specific Costs YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Library (Project) Square Feet 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Percentage 100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00% Cost per unit 38.40$ 39.17$ 39.95$ 40.75$ 41.56$ 42.39$ 43.24$ 44.11$ 44.99$ 45.89$ 46.81$ 47.74$ 48.70$ 49.67$ 50.67$ 51.68$ 52.71$ Cost 1,151,947$ 1,174,986$ 1,198,486$ 1,222,456$ 1,246,905$ 1,271,843$ 1,297,280$ 1,323,225$ 1,349,690$ 1,376,684$ 1,404,217$ 1,432,302$ 1,460,948$ 1,490,167$ 1,519,970$ 1,550,369$ 1,581,377$ Growth Factor 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% Extended Cost 1,174,986$ 1,198,486$ 1,222,456$ 1,246,905$ 1,271,843$ 1,297,280$ 1,323,225$ 1,349,690$ 1,376,684$ 1,404,217$ 1,432,302$ 1,460,948$ 1,490,167$ 1,519,970$ 1,550,369$ 1,581,377$ 1,613,004$ Population 272,736 277,555 282,375 287,195 292,015 296,835 301,655 306,475 311,295 316,115 320,935 325,755 330,575 335,395 340,215 342,066 343,844 Per Capita Unit Cost 4.31$ 4.32$ 4.33$ 4.34$ 4.36$ 4.37$ 4.39$ 4.40$ 4.42$ 4.44$ 4.46$ 4.48$ 4.51$ 4.53$ 4.56$ 4.62$ 4.69$ Existing Library Square Feet 102,000 Current Budget 3,916,621$ Cost Per Square Foot 38.40$ Library - Project Specific Costs YEAR Library (Project) Square Feet Percentage Cost per unit Cost Growth Factor Extended Cost Population Per Capita Unit Cost 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00% 53.77$ 54.84$ 55.94$ 57.06$ 58.20$ 59.36$ 60.55$ 61.76$ 63.00$ 64.26$ 65.54$ 66.85$ 68.19$ 1,613,004$ 1,645,264$ 1,678,170$ 1,711,733$ 1,745,968$ 1,780,887$ 1,816,505$ 1,852,835$ 1,889,892$ 1,927,690$ 1,966,243$ 2,005,568$ 2,045,680$ 2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00% 1,645,264$ 1,678,170$ 1,711,733$ 1,745,968$ 1,780,887$ 1,816,505$ 1,852,835$ 1,889,892$ 1,927,690$ 1,966,243$ 2,005,568$ 2,045,680$ 2,086,593$ 345,651 347,440 349,185 350,894 352,560 354,241 355,895 357,524 359,126 360,683 362,220 363,786 365,344 4.76$ 4.83$ 4.90$ 4.98$ 5.05$ 5.13$ 5.21$ 5.29$ 5.37$ 5.45$ 5.54$ 5.62$ 5.71$