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Home My WebLink AboutAddendum 3_Matrix Analysis_Presentation_May2013Chula Vista Higher Education Study Interim Research – May 15, 2013 Overview Demographics Local and Statewide Higher Education Trends Project Goals Institutional Models Analysis Demographics Population • Chula Vista and the encompassing Sweetwater Union High School District have grown and will continue to grow at faster rates than San Diego City and San Diego County. (40% in Chula Vista; 11% in SUHSD) • A large percentage of the growth has been among 18-34 year olds; in particular there is a large growth among 18-20 year olds (63% - Chula Visa; 14% SUHSD) • The Hispanic population in Chula Vista and the SUHSD has also grown higher than the rate for San Diego County. Hispanics represented 80% of the population growth in Chula Vista between 2000 and 2010 Source: Chula Vista Post Secondary School Study, 2010 Enrollment Trends Statewide • California Public Colleges/Universities are forecast to increase by 387,000 or 14% in the next ten years; the highest growth will be among Hispanic populations • Many community colleges and CU campuses will require wide-scale retroﬁts to accommodate the increased capacity Local • In 2008, 4,816 ﬁrst-time students from the Sweetwater Union High School District (SUHSD) enrolled in college • 74% enrolled in a Community College • 18% enrolled in a Cal State School • 8% enrolled in a UC School • 17% of SUHSD population has completed a BA compared with 21% nationwide Source: Chula Vista Post Secondary School Study, 2010 Higher Education Supply • According to a summary of all public, private, and community higher education institutions in Fall of 2008*– there are approximately 267,459 higher ed students in San Diego County • 146,870 enrolled at community colleges • 73,180 enrolled in a CSU or UC school • 32,429 enrolled in a WASC- certiﬁed private institution *Most current year with complete WASC data Source: California Postsecondary Education Commission San Diego County Enrollment Trends 93% 67% 20% 6% 33% 80% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Community College CSU School UC School Out of County In County High School Students from San Diego County (2009) Graduated from High School: 33,936 Enrolled in a Public Institution: 14,595 (43%) Enrolled in San Diego County: 10,490 (72%) Source: California Postsecondary Education Commission 7,205 4,854 2,536 Total Students Enrollment by System County Residents Attending UC Schools Of the 2,536 First-Year Students enrolled in a UC School 504 (20%) attended UCSD (2009) Compared to other counties with similar enrollment in UC Schools Riverside 43% Orange 27% San Diego 20% Los Angeles 17% Source: California Postsecondary Education Commission University of California San Diego 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% UC Los Angeles UC Irvine UC Riverside UC San Diego UC Berkley UC Merced UC Santa Barbara UC Davis UC Santa Cruz Source: California Postsecondary Education Commission Percentage from home county compared to other UC schools Of the 3,563 First-Year Students enrolled at UCSD 504 (14%) came from San Diego County (2009) County Residents Attending CSU Schools Source: California Postsecondary Education Commission Of the 4,854 First-Year Students enrolled at Cal State San Marcos or San Diego State 3,258 (67%) came from San Diego County (2009) Out of State Demand California Residents Enrolled in a 4-year out of state University: 27,000 (90% increase since 2000) College Freshman from California (2010) Change from 2000 Arizona State 1,109 134% University of Oregon 1,103 293% University of Arizona 963 38% Northern Arizona University 745 452% Western Undergraduate Exchange Through the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, California residents are eligible for 150% resident tuition at any other participating state university (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) Source: National Center for Education Statistics: IPEDs Higher Education Trends Principal Takeaways: • Most college bound students from the SUHSD remain in San Diego County • A vast majority attend a community college • Most students that attend a CSU school remain in the county; most students that attend a UC school do not • Hispanic students are more likely than white students to remain within San Diego County • Transfer students are more likely to enroll out of the county than ﬁrst- time enrollees 1. Provide education opportunities and accessibility for residents of Chula Vista and the region 2. Serve as an economic engine and contribute to the growth of the city and region 3. Prepare students for post-university careers that allow for lasting personal and professional growth 4. Provide a source of high-quality jobs and contribute to diversifying the city’s economy 5. Develop into a ﬁnancially viable university entity 6. Become an integral part of the fabric of the community providing cultural enrichment for residents of Chula Vista and the region 7. Develop into an institution that is physically well integrated and connected to the surrounding neighborhood and region 8. Serve the shifting demographics of the San Diego region, and the United States in general 9. Attract a wide range of educational and industry partners, regionally, nationally, and internationally Project Goals Institutional Models 1. State funded higher education institution 1. 4 year 2. 4 year plus professional 2. Satellite Campus for a Private Higher Education Institution 1. 4 year 2. 4 year plus professional 3. Experiential learning 4. Tech/Engineering 5. Vocational/Technical 6. Religious Institution 3. Multi-institutional Campus 4. International American University 1. Mexican 2. Other international institution 5. The 4 year extension of a community college 6. Non Traditional Higher Education Institution 1. For-proﬁt 2. Online 3. Hybrid Place Based/Online 7. Olympic Training related institution 8. Newly Established Private Institution 9. A new campus for a military institution High Attainment Low Attainment Project Goals Feasibility Less Financially Viable More Financially Viable Financial Feasibility Ability to ﬁnance project and potential for ﬁnancial sustainability Less Operationally Viable More Operationally Viable Operational Feasibility Potential to operate institution or potential for strategic partnerships Weaker Demand Stronger Demand Demand Match Match of model to market Less phase- able More Phase- able “Phase-ability” Potential to phase model over time Meeting Project Goals Goals deﬁned by the City and Homefed Testing the Models Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment More Feasible Less Feasible Access Econ. Engine Career Prep High Quality Jobs Financially Viable Com. Fabric Phys. Con. Dem. Shifts Partners State State (+ profess) Private (4 year) Private (+ profess) Experiential Learning Tech/ Engineering Vocational/ Technical Religious Newly Established Highly Likely Possibly Highly Unlikely Project Goals Access Econ. Engine Career Prep High Quality Jobs Financially Viable Com. Fabric Phys. Con. Dem. Shifts Partners Multi Institutional Int’l (Mexican) CC Extension Non Trad For-Proﬁt Non Trad Online Non Trad Hybrid Olympic Military Highly Likely Possibly Highly Unlikely Project Goals Project Goals Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment 4 year CC Non-Traditional State Funded Multi- Institutional Mexican Private Institution Olympic Military Newly Established Experiential Religious Model Findings to Date State Funded Higher Education Institution Financial Feasibility • This model remains untenable and risky unless California amends its funding of public education through dramatic action Operational Feasibility • There are numerous resources for establishing a new UC or CSU campus Market Demand • The strategic goals of the CSU and UC systems can be satisﬁed given demographic, geographic, and economic trends in Chula Vista Phase-ability • Legally requires an enrollment of 3,000 within 5 years, but has the ﬂexibility to begin as an “educational center” Case Studies: UC Merced; Public Policy Institute of California; Center for Education Policy and Law ; California Postsecondary Education Commission Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Private Higher Education Institution Financial Feasibility • Campus expansion is often built into the budgets of private institutions and higher tuition revenues support expenses Operational Feasibility • Satellite campuses often require less overhead and fewer facilities, focusing more on academic programming Market Demand • The demographic, geographic, and economic assets of Chula Vista satisfy benchmarks for expansion, but high tuition prices may preclude some residents Phase-ability • Many satellite campuses begin as internship programs and evolve to operate campus facilities Case Studies: Emerson College (Los Angeles); Ithaca College (Los Angeles, D.C); NAICU Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Experiential Learning Education Institution Financial Feasibility • Campus expansion is often built into the budgets of private institutions and higher tuition revenues support expenses Operational Feasibility • Satellite campuses often require less overhead and fewer facilities, focusing more on academic programming Market Demand • Though tuition remains high, cooperative institutions have strong connections to regional industry partners Phase-ability • Many satellite campuses begin as internship programs and evolve to operate campus facilities Model Findings to Date Case Studies: Drexel University (Sacramento); Northeastern (Charlotte); Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Tech/Engineering Education Institution Financial Feasibility • Higher tuition revenues may cover expenses, though these institutions require large capital investments in high-cost technology Operational Feasibility • These institutions may require fewer resources because they are graduate Market Demand • Though it would satisfy regional industry needs, it is unlikely that most residents are academically and ﬁnancially prepared for these kinds of institutions Phase-ability • Carnegie Mellon began as a small facility and is gradually expanding Case Studies: Carnegie Melon (Silicon Valley); Cornell NYC Tech (planned) Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Vocational/Technical Education Institution Financial Feasibility • Funding for CTE programs and colleges has been decreasing at the national and state-level over the last ten years Operational Feasibility • CTE in California is overseen by a unique and efficient framework called Regional Occupational Centers and Programs Market Demand • Partnerships with local high schools allow vocational colleges the opportunity to serve the educational needs of local populations Phase-ability • Partnerships with local High Schools, ROCPs, and Community Colleges allow a number of pathways for phase-ability Case Studies: ITT Tech; Humboldt Park Vocational Education Center; NASDCTEC; ACTE Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Religious Educational Institution Financial Feasibility • Religious universities often rely on start-up capital from mission based philanthropic organizations or wealthy donors Operational Feasibility • A religiously-charged mission could interfere with certain operational measures, such as land-use and zoning, budgeting, human resources, and student life Market Demand • Though all religions merit consideration, the growth of Catholic residents has outpaced population growth in San Diego County between 2000 to 2010 Phase-ability • Many institutions surveyed began with double-digit enrollment and expanded Case Studies: Ave Maria University; Soka University; Catholic –Hierarchy.org; Thomas Aquinas College Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Newly Established Private Institution Financial Feasibility • A newly established institution will require signiﬁcant ﬁnancial capital but has the ﬂexibility to pull from various sources Operational Feasibility • A newly established institution will require building its operational capacity from scratch Market Demand • It is likely that a new institution will tailor its scope to meet local needs Phase-ability • A new private institution is inherently “phaseable”; Soka University of America evolved from a non-proﬁt, to a small graduate school, to a 103-acre undergraduate institution Case Studies: Soka University Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Multi-Institutional Education Consortium Financial Feasibility • Joint-use institutions permit a diversity of public and private funding streams Operational Feasibility • Successful consortia require complete buy-in from all parties (Auraria); unsuccessful consortia (UT Brownsville) are derailed by differences in pedagogy, ideology, or governance Market Demand • Since this model often includes community and industry partners, it can easily satisfy local demographic, geographic, and economic trends Phase-ability • Successful models have begun as “loose partnerships” (UPS/Metropolitan College in Louisville) and evolved into place-based institutions Case Studies: Auraria Higher Education Center; Center for American Progress; UT Brownsville; Metropolitan College; Santa Clarita COC Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date International (Mexican) American University Financial Feasibility • The most common funding model requires the host government/private entity to put up initial capital for the facilities Operational Feasibility • Operational feasibility varies depending on whether the receiving city has a regulatory framework conducive with the goals of the home institution Market Demand • It is likely that this institution would satisfy demographic trends and the broader need for international cooperation Phase-ability • These ventures require large capital contributions and must have adequate economies of scale Case Studies: Rice University; Journal of Higher Education; Puentes Consortium; NYU Abu Dhabi Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Four-year Community College Extension Financial Feasibility • The inclusion of a community college district might require bond or tax ﬁnancing, which presents difficulties given California’s current ﬁscal climate Operational Feasibility • Partnerships and transfer programs aside, state action is required to expand the functionality of a Community College in California Market Demand • Since community colleges are often closely connected to the needs of their local constituents, the expansion would likely satisfy market needs Phase-ability • Similar models in other states have evolved from transfer partnerships Case Studies: California Community Colleges Chancellors Ofﬁce; The Source on Community College Issues, Trends, Strategies; SJCC Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Non-traditional Institution (For-Proﬁt) Financial Feasibility • Though traditionally feasible, bad publicity and recent budget restrictions have reduced the assured proﬁtability of this model in California Operational Feasibility • There are hundreds of For-Proﬁt Colleges with well-deﬁned operational frameworks Market Demand • For-Proﬁt Colleges must grapple with accountability in degree retention Phase-ability • Since they follow a for-proﬁt model, these institutions often phase their operations according to local conditions Case Studies: 2012 California Budget Act; Kiplingers; University of Phoenix; Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Non-traditional Institution (Online) Financial Feasibility • There is currently a proﬁtability disconnect between online “satellites” (Drexel) and more accessible “free models” (Coursera; Udacity) Operational Feasibility • Online institutions have a reduced scale of operations: even though Drexel had to scale back its Sacramento facilities, its online presence has grown Market Demand • California has passed a preliminary bill making some online credits transferable to any CU, CSU, or CCC school Phase-ability • The ability to offer courses, license materials, partner with institutions, and transition to a place-based hybrid are all within the reach of an online institution Case Studies: Drexel (Sacramento); Coursera; Udacity; New York Times ; Colorado State University; Bill SB-520 Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Non-traditional Institution (Hybrid) Financial Feasibility • Few examples exist, though this model would likely grapple with the same ﬁnancial disconnect mentioned in the previous model Operational Feasibility • A hybrid model would require greater overhead than a purely online institution, but less than a campus based institution Market Demand • A hybrid model would meet both the needs of universal accessibility and the needs of physical/cultural integration Phase-ability • A hybrid model could be easily phased in or scaled back depending on local needs Case Studies: Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Olympic Training-Related Institution Financial Feasibility • The USOC spends a very limited portion of its budget on administrative expenses and may be unlikely to pursue a project with signiﬁcant overhead Operational Feasibility • As there is no precedent, there is a reason for concern about the degree of control asserted by the USOC Market Demand • It is unclear whether this sort of facility would meet the demand of the national athletes or the community Phase-ability • Since the USOC already provides ﬁnancial support for athletes, a place-based institution could grow from this model Case Studies: United States Olympic Committee Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Model Findings to Date Military Education Institution Financial Feasibility • The GI Bill provides a consistent and steady stream of tuition revenues Operational Feasibility • A successful model catering to veterans requires investments in workforce training, disability care, counseling, and mentoring Market Demand • San Diego County and Chula Vista have a proportionally high rate of Military Veterans in the state of California Phase-ability • It is possible that this model could begin as a Veteran’s Support program partnering with a local CC or CSU Case Studies: The American Council on Education; Apollo Research Institute; Norwhich University; SUNY Canton; American Community Survey Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Project Goals Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment 4 year CC Non-Traditional State Funded Multi- Institutional Mexican Private Institution Olympic Military Newly Established Experiential Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Religious Financial Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment 4 year CC Mexican Military Newly Established Experiential Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment More Financially Feasible Less Financially Feasible State Funded Private Higher Ed Non-Traditional Multi- Institutional Olympic Religious Operational Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment 4 year CC Mexican Olympic Military Newly Established Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment More Operationally Feasible Less Operationally Feasible Religious State Funded Private Higher Ed Non-Traditional Multi- Institutional Experiential Demand Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Military Newly Established Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Stronger Demand Weaker Demand Private Higher Ed Olympic 4 year CC State Funded Non-Traditional Multi- Institutional Mexican Religious Experiential Phase-ability Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Military Newly Established Experiential Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment More Phase-able Less Phase-able Olympic 4 year CC State Funded Private Institution Multi- Institutional Mexican Non-Traditional Religious 4 year CC Non-Traditional State Funded Mexican Olympic Training Overall Feasibility More Feasible Model Less Feasible Model Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Multi- Institutional Military Religious Newly Established Non-Traditional Private Higher Ed Experiential 4 year CC Non-Traditional State Funded Mexican Olympic Training Overall Feasibility More Feasible Model Less Feasible Model Lower Goal Attainment Higher Goal Attainment Multi- Institutional Military Religious Newly Established Non-Traditional Private Higher Ed Experiential