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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda Statement 1984/01/10 Item 5 COUNCIL AGENDA STATEMENT Item 5 Meeting Date 1-10-84 ITEM TITLE: Resolution `/,`-e ' Adopting the Final Series 6 Growth Forecasts for Chula Vista SUBMITTED BY: Director of Planning i� �' (4/5ths Vote: Yes No x )rz REVIEWED BY: City Manager SANDAG's Regional Growth Forecasts are updated periodically to reflect changes in local plans and policies and other factors affecting the growth of the region. The preliminary results of the current update, called the Series 6 forecasts, were presented to Council in June and have since undergone local staff review and revision. The SANDAG Board is now requesting each jurisdiction within the region to adopt the final Series 6 figures. These forecasts would replace the Series 5 update figures adopted by Council in November 1980. RECOMMENDATION: Adopt the attached resolution endorsing the final Series 6 Growth Forecasts for the City of Chula Vista and the Chula Vista Planning Area. BOARDS/COMMISSIONS RECOMMENDATION: Not applicable. DISCUSSION: Regional Forecasts The San Diego Region is expected to grow by an average of 42,000 residents per year and reach a total population of 2.7 million by the year 2000. The 840,000 new residents expected between 1980 and 2000 is somewhat greater than the 830,000 residents added during the preceding 20-year period, and represents a 36 percent increase over the 1.99 million people estimated to live within the region on January 1 , 1983. The total population of 2.7 million forecast by Series 6 for the year 2000 is only slightly greater than the 2.65 million forecast by Series 5. Exhibit A, attached hereto, presents the final Series 6 figures for each jurisdiction within the region. Chula Vista Forecasts The following table presents the Series 6 forecasts for the City and the Chula Vista Planning area. The City forecasts represent the growth expected to occur within the City's incorporated limits as of the 1980 Census held constant through the year 2000. • Page 2, Item 5 Meeting Date 1-10-84 Series 6 Growth Forecasts Chula Vista City* (1980 Census boundaries) 1980 1990 1995 2000 Total Population 83,927 101 ,500 102,200 102,100 Occupied Housing Units 30,398 37,800 38,900 39,800 Chula Vista Planning Area** 1980 1990 1995 2000 Total Population 116,663 156,600 171 ,500 185,700 Occupied Housing Units 41 ,913 57,100 63,300 69,600 * Not including El Rancho del Rey, Bonita Long Canyon, EastLake Phase I and other areas which have annexed to the City since the 1980 Census. The growth projected for these and other lands which may annex to the City in the future are reflected in the Planning Area forecasts. ** Includes the City of Chula Vista and all unincorporated territory east of San Diego Bay, south of State Highway 54, west of the Sweetwater and Otay Lakes, and north of the Otay Valley. As indicated in the table, Series 6 forecasts that the area within the City as of 1980 will grow by 18,200 residents, or 22 percent by the year 2000. The modest growth and then decline in population reflected in the table following 1990 is partially a result of vacant lands being built-out in the early years, with redevelopment constituting the majority of growth thereafter. Also, the overall average persons-per-household is expected to decline from 2.74 in 1980 to 2.54 in the year 2000. As a result, although occupied dwelling units increase by some 900 units between 1995 and 2000, for instance, the total population actually declines by 100 residents during the same period of time because, on average, each dwelling unit within the City is expected to contain fewer occupants. The Planning Area figures, which actually reflect the majority of new growth which will occur in the City over time, indicate an increase of 69,000 residents, or plus 60 percent between 1980 and 2000. For comparison, the 20-year period between 1960 and 1980 saw the Planning Area grow by approximately 59,000 residents. Both the City and the Planning Area are expected to grow less under Series 6 than was projected by the Series 5 forecasts, although the differences are relatively small in the case of the Planning Area. This decrease is due primarily to the effect of the plan amendment recently adopted by the City of San Diego for the Otay Mesa East area, which was slated for rural-agriculture use in Series 5 but is now planned for a residential-industrial complex A //J 1 • Page 3, Item 5 Meeting Date 1-10-84 containing over 45,000 residents by the year 2000 in Series 6. Due to the interactive nature of SANDAG's forecasting model, the scope of the Otay Mesa East amendment more than offset the additional growth attraction of our own planning area resulting from the adoption of the EastLake Phase I plan (see Forecasting Methodology directly below). In all, 85% of all new growth in the South Bay subregion is expected to occur within the Chula Vista Planning Area or Otay Mesa East. Exhibit B, attached hereto, presents a comparison between the Series 5 and 6 Forecasts for Chula Vista. Forecast Methodology The SANDAG forecasting process involves first estimating the total population growth expected in the region and then distributing this total to various communities. The total represents the level and rate of population growth that is likely to occur based on current and projected trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and current public policies affecting such population-related factors as employment growth. The distribution of the total to communities is based on the availability and accessibility of developable and redevelopable urban land as reflected in local general plans and policies. In other words, the forecasts for Chula Vista represent the portion of the total regional growth which the City and Planning Area are expected to attract based on present local plans and policies. Should these plans or policies change, then a greater or lesser share of regional growth would be attracted to our area, and this would be reflected in subsequent SANDAG forecasts. Significance of the Forecasts The forecasts are used at the local level for general and community planning, public facility planning, and transportation planning. At the regional level, the forecasts are used for planning for air quality, water quality, public facilities, transportation, energy, housing, and clearinghouse review. Since the forecasts represent a regional consensus on growth, they have also enjoyed considerable status in dealing with Federal and State agencies concerning grant applications for population serving facilities. Accuracy of the Forecasts The results of the Series 5 Forecast were less than one-half of one percent greater than the current State-certified population estimate for both the City of Chula Vista and the San Diego region as a whole. Impacts of Forecasted Growth Perhaps the most significant impact resulting from the region's projected growth, according to SANDAG, will be the increasing congestion encountered on area freeways. By the year 2000, 75 miles of the region's freeway system are expected to suffer severe rush hour congestion, with several routes even more severely impacted than the worst part of I-8 is today. / Page 4, Item 5 Meeting Date l- IU-84 Accommodating Series 6 growth is also expected to have a dramatic impact on the character and form of the region as "urbanized" land increases from 250,000 acres currently, to over 400,000 acres by the year 2000. Rural and/or open areas will be developed and the distinction and identity between one community and another will become blurred as urbanized portions of the region grow together. In summary, SANDAG states that; "The rapid changes revealed by ... (the) forecasts during the next two decades will make living and working in the San Diego region less 'hassle-free. ' How well the individual adjusts to rapid change will determine the San Diego region's quality of life as it enters the 21st century." SG:fp WPC 0620P RaWerp)